共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 140 毫秒
1.
钢筋混凝土框架结构体系抗震可靠度及其抗力衰减影响分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
结构体系可靠度分析面临的主要问题是失效模式多,但通过pushover分析方法在一定情况下可以得到结构的最弱失效模式。本文将结构体系抗力等效为与结构特定损伤状况相关的结构的顶点位移,结构的地震作用效应由pushover分析及能力谱法求得。考虑结构体系抗力随机性的主要影响因素以及地震作用的随机性,分别求得了结构抗力及地震作用效应的概率分布参数,通过一次二阶矩方法求得了结构体系可靠度,并进一步研究了结构层数变化及耐久性退化因素对结构体系可靠度的影响。研究发现,结构体系的抗震可靠度水平随着结构层数的增加有减小的趋势,结构体系的抗震可靠度水平随着结构使用期增加而降低,降低幅度与薄弱层个数有关,薄弱层越多,降低幅度越大。 相似文献
2.
本文在已有的研究基础上,结合我国现行的抗震规范（GB50011—2001）和地震作用统计参数,提出了pushover分析中结构体系抗力曲线的保证率计算方法。以pushover分析所得的塑性铰出现次序和最终数量作为结构主要失效模式,同时考虑了结构抗力以及地震作用的随机性对结构体系抗力曲线的影响,借助于主要随机变量的灵敏度分析,得到了确定性pushover分析曲线的保证率。框架结构算例给出了本文方法的计算结果,并用重要抽样法进行了检验。 相似文献
3.
本文指出,目前抗震规范里规定的设计方法不能正确地估计结构抗震的可靠度。作者用24个地震记录计算了1800个多层建筑的弹塑性地震反应,给出了多层建筑在地震作用下延伸率的分布密度。文中用结构的延伸率不大于某一极限值的概率表示结构抗震的可靠度,提出了一个根据对结构抗震可靠度的要求设计抗震结构的方法。用此法进行设计,可以求出结构遇到不同强度地震时的可靠度。如果在某一时期某一强度地震发生的概率为已知,结构总的抗震可靠度即可求出。最后,用本文给出的结果对现有建筑的抗震可靠度作了估计。 相似文献
4.
基于MVFOSM有限元可靠度方法的结构整体概率抗震能力分析 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
结构整体概率抗震能力分析既属于结构体系抗力统计分析研究内容,也属于地震易损性分析研究范畴,多采用数值模拟方法.作为一种不确定性传递的近似解析分析工具,平均值一次二阶矩方法(MVFOSM)广泛地应用于结构构件抗力的统计分析,但是很难应用于结构整体抗力的统计分析,主要困难在于结构反应是基本随机变量的隐式函数,梯度信息很难得到.将结构体系抗力的统计分析和地震易损性分析结合起来,通过基于MVFOSM的有限元可靠度方法,以新一代的地震工程模拟仿真软件OpenSees为计算平台,以最大层间位移角作为结构整体抗震能力参数,对钢筋混凝土框架结构的整体概率抗震能力进行分析,并用Monte Carlo模拟法结果进行验证,从而建立了钢筋混凝土框架结构的整体概率抗震能力模型.算例分析表明,MVFOSM有限元可靠度方法的精度和效率都很高,只需要进行一次有限元分析即可较为准确地获得结构整体概率抗震能力的前二阶矩信息. 相似文献
5.
高层建筑结构的抗震可靠度分析与优化设计 总被引：12，自引：4，他引：12
本文根据我们在文献２中给出的等效随机地震静力作用模型，紧密结合规范和利用我们在文献６中提出的结构体系可靠度分析的最弱失效模式法，提出了结构构件和体系“小震不坏”和“大震不倒”及结构体系在设计基准期内的抗震可靠度分析方法；重新校准了结构构件的目标可靠度指标；综合考虑结构造价和损失期望，提出了结构体系抗震目标可靠度的优化决策方法；分别给出了满足构件抗震目标可靠指标与同时满足构件和体系抗震目标可靠指标的 相似文献
6.
《地震工程与工程振动》2016,(2)
为了评估叠合柱高墩的抗震性能,根据结构可靠度理论,推导了概率地震易损性函数解析式。以一座叠合柱高墩连续刚构为研究对象,对叠合柱高墩的合理性能指标进行分析和量化,建立了以轴力为变量的截面概率抗震能力模型。考虑材料强度和地震动的不确定性,采用IDA方法对结构-地震动样本进行地震需求分析,建立了以PGA为变量的控制截面概率地震需求模型并进行概率地震易损性分析。结果表明曲率指标对数均值与对数轴力之间符合三次多项式回归关系,曲率抗震能力随轴力的增大而减小。在纵向地震作用下,曲率需求与PGA之间仍然满足对数线性关系,墩底区域最容易发生损伤,矮墩比高墩更容易发生损伤,在设计地震作用下,叠合柱高墩发生倒塌的概率极小。 相似文献
7.
地震可靠度是桥梁抗震研究中的重要问题。基于随机分析的响应面理论和规范反应谱法,提出了一种分析具有随机结构参数的桥梁地震可靠度的方法,研究了结构的破坏准则及其极限状态方程,计算了高墩大跨连续刚构桥在地震激励下设计基准期内的动力可靠度。分析时考虑了结构参数和场地土的随机性,分别计算了连续刚构在多遇地震、设防地震和罕遇地震作用下的失效概率,得到了结构在设计基准期内,"三水准设防标准"条件下的地震可靠度。结果表明,该桥设计满足抗震规范要求。 相似文献
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《地震工程与工程振动》2020,(4)
地震引起的地面运动是非常复杂的随机过程,具有时间和频率非平稳的特性。用确定性方法对隧道结构抗震性能的评价未能考虑地震动的随机性。本文提出采用概率密度演化法计算隧道结构在随机地震作用下变形响应的概率分布,并引入变形指标计算其在随机地震作用下的可靠度以评估抗震性能。首先根据概率守恒原理的随机事件描述建立概率密度演化方程;其次,根据相应的初始条件与边界条件,采用总变差不增(TVD)格式的有限差分方法求解方程;最后求和得到隧道结构变形指标的概率分布并依据指标限值给出可靠度。结果表明,在随机地震作用下,隧道结构变形响应的概率分布与地震动强度随时间变化规律一致。采用不同变形指标计算得到的可靠度存在差异,直径变形率对应的结构可靠度为0.752 1,隧道倾斜角对应的结构可靠度为0.875 0。 相似文献
9.
土的动剪切模量比和阻尼比是土层地震反应分析、工程场地地震安全性评价和地震小区划工作中的必备参数,但其不确定性显著,对地震动和抗震设计影响很大。本文以我国常规土类动剪切模量比和阻尼比与剪应变非线性关系试验为基础,研究考虑这两个动力参数变异性下其超越概率的计算方法。方法包括了试验数据的整理、超越概率的计算以及两个动力参数和超越概率关系模拟等几个步骤,最后给出了我国常规土类动剪切模量比和阻尼比超越概率的计算公式,为我国基于概率和可靠度思想的工程地震安全风险评估提供了一定基础。 相似文献
10.
基于改进云图法的结构概率地震需求分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
概率地震需求分析是美国太平洋地震工程研究中心(Pacific Earthquake Engineering ResearchCenter,PEER)提出的新一代"性能化地震工程(Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering,PBEE)"理论框架的重要一环。传统的概率地震需求分析方法称为"云图法",这种方法针对确定性结构进行一系列地震动作用下的非线性动力分析,从而得到地震动强度参数与结构地震需求的"云图"。然而,传统的云图法只能考虑地震动的不确定性,而无法考虑结构的不确定性。为此,结合拉丁超立方体抽样技术,提出一种能综合考虑地震动不确定性和结构不确定性的改进云图法,并将传统的概率地震需求分析内容拓展为概率地震需求模型、概率地震需求易损性分析、概率地震需求危险性分析三个层次。以一榀五层三跨钢筋混凝土框架结构为例,分别采用传统云图法和改进云图法对其进行概率地震需求分析,得到了该结构的概率地震需求模型、地震需求易损性曲线和地震需求危险性曲线。分析结果表明:提出的方法可以有效地考虑地震动与结构的不确定性,避免不考虑结构的不确定性而低估结构的地震风险性。 相似文献
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12.
Modelling uncertainty can significantly affect the structural seismic reliability assessment. However, the limit state excursion due to this type of uncertainty may not be described by a Poisson process as it lacks renewal properties with the occurrence of each earthquake event. Furthermore, considering uncertainties related to ground motion representation by employing recorded ground motions together with modelling uncertainties is not a trivial task. Robust fragility assessment, proposed previously by the authors, employs the structural response to recorded ground motion as data in order to update prescribed seismic fragility models. Robust fragility can be extremely efficient for considering also the structural modelling uncertainties by creating a dataset of one-to-one assignments of structural model realizations and as-recorded ground motions. This can reduce the computational effort by more than 1 order of magnitude. However, it should be kept in mind that the fragility concept itself is based on the underlying assumption of Poisson-type renewal. Using the concept of updated robust reliability, considering both the uncertainty in ground motion representation based on as-recorded ground motion and non ergodic modelling uncertainties, the error introduced through structural reliability assessment by using the robust fragility is quantified. It is shown through specific application to an existing RC frame that this error is quite small when the product of the time interval and the standard deviation of failure rate is small and is on the conservative side. 相似文献
13.
The current simplified methods for assessing soil liquefaction potential use a deterministic safety factor in order to judge whether liquefaction will occur or not. However, these methods are unable to determine the liquefaction probability related to a safety factor. An answer to this problem can be found by reliability analysis. This paper presents a reliability analysis method based on the popular Seed'85 liquefaction analysis method. This reliability method uses the empirical acceleration attenuation law in the Taiwan area to derive the probability density distribution function (PDF) and the statistics for the earthquake-induced cyclic shear stress ratio (CSR). The PDF and the statistics for the cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) can be deduced from some probabilistic cyclic resistance curves. These curves are produced by the regression of the liquefaction and non-liquefaction data from the Chi-Chi earthquake and others around the world, using, with minor modifications, the logistic model proposed by Liao [J. Geotech. Eng. 114 (1988) 389]. The CSR and CRR statistics are used in conjunction with the first order and second moment method, to calculate the relation between the liquefaction probability, the safety factor and the reliability index. Based on the proposed method, the liquefaction probability related to a safety factor can be easily calculated. The influence of some of the soil parameters on the liquefaction probability can be quantitatively evaluated. 相似文献
14.
Iunio Iervolino 《地震工程与结构动力学》2017,46(10):1711-1723
State‐of‐the‐art approaches to probabilistic assessment of seismic structural reliability are based on simulation of structural behavior via nonlinear dynamic analysis of computer models. Simulations are carried out considering samples of ground motions supposedly drawn from specific populations of signals virtually recorded at the site of interest. This serves to produce samples of structural response to evaluate the failure rate, which in turn allows to compute the failure risk (probability) in a time interval of interest. This procedure alone implies that uncertainty of estimation affects the probabilistic results. The latter is seldom quantified in risk analyses, although it may be relevant. This short paper discusses some basic issues and some simple statistical tools, which can aid the analyst towards the assessment of the impact of sample variability on fragility functions and the resulting seismic structural risk. On the statistical inference side, the addressed strategies are based on consolidated results such as the well‐known delta method and on some resampling plans belonging to the bootstrap family. On the structural side, they rely on assumptions and methods typical in performance‐based earthquake engineering applications. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
A stochastic framework to assess the performance of flood warning systems based on rainfall‐runoff modeling 
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下载免费PDF全文 Nowadays, Flood Forecasting and Warning Systems (FFWSs) are known as the most inexpensive and efficient non‐structural measures for flood damage mitigation in the world. Benefit to cost of the FFWSs has been reported to be several times of other flood mitigation measures. Beside these advantages, uncertainty in flood predictions is a subject that may affect FFWS's reliability and the benefits of these systems. Determining the reliability of advanced flood warning systems based on the rainfall–runoff models is a challenge in assessment of the FFWS performance which is the subject of this study. In this paper, a stochastic methodology is proposed to provide the uncertainty band of the rainfall–runoff model and to calculate the probability of acceptable forecasts. The proposed method is based on Monte Carlo simulation and multivariate analysis of the predicted time and discharge error data sets. For this purpose, after the calibration of the rainfall–runoff model, the probability distributions of input calibration parameters and uncertainty band of the model are estimated through the Bayesian inference. Then, data sets of the time and discharge errors are calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation, and the probability of acceptable model forecasts is calculated by multivariate analysis of data using copula functions. The proposed approach was applied for a small watershed in Iran as a case study. The results showed using rainfall–runoff modeling based on real‐time precipitation is not enough to attain high performance for FFWSs in small watersheds, and it seems using weather forecasts as the inputs of rainfall–runoff models is essential to increase lead times and the reliability of FFWSs in small watersheds. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
本文给出了自重和地震作用下核电厂混凝土安全壳的可靠性分析方法。首先基于半解析有限环元法和随机振型分析法，用首超概率给出了给定系统参数时安全壳的条件极限状态概率，然后基于此概率用推广的一次二阶矩法求解了考虑系统参数不确定性的安全壳极限状态概率。一个预应力混凝土安全壳的实例分析表明，系统参数的不确定性对安全壳的可靠性有重要影响。 相似文献
17.
C. Hsein Juang Susan Hui Yang Haiming Yuan Eng Hui Khor 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2004,24(9-10):771
As the profession moves toward the performance-based earthquake engineering design, it becomes more important and pressing to examine the uncertainty of the limit state model used for liquefaction potential evaluation. In this paper, the uncertainty of the Robertson and Wride model, a simplified model for liquefaction resistance and potential evaluation based on cone penetration test, is investigated in detail for its model uncertainty in the framework of first-order reliability analysis. The uncertainties of the parameters used in the Robertson and Wride model are also examined. The model uncertainty is estimated by calibration with a fairly large set of case histories. The results show that the uncertainty of the Robertson and Wride model may be characterized with a mean-to-nominal of 0.94 and a coefficient of variation of 0.15 based on the case histories examined. 相似文献
18.
Murat Emre Kartal Alemdar Bayraktar Hasan Basri Başağa 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2010
In this study, failure probability of the concrete slab on concrete-faced rockfill (CFR) dams with welded and friction contact is investigated under earthquake effects by reliability analysis. For this purpose, Torul CFR dam is selected as an example and numerical solutions are performed by considering combination of reliability analysis–finite element method. 1992 Erzincan earthquake acceleration record is used in the finite element analysis considering deconvolved-base rock input model. In this model, the ground motion to be applied to the foundation base rock is obtained by deconvolution of the free-field surface record. In the materially nonlinear analysis, Drucker–Prager model is used for concrete slab and multi-linear kinematic hardening model is utilized for rockfill. Geometrically nonlinearity is also taken into account. Viscous boundary conditions are defined in the finite element model for both foundation soil and reservoir water. The hydrodynamic pressure of the reservoir water is considered using 2D fluid finite elements based on the Lagrangian approach. Both welded contact and friction contact based on the Coulomb’s friction law are defined in the structural connections. Improved Rackwitz–Fiessler method is used with response surface method in the reliability analysis. The tensile and compression strengths of the concrete slab are utilized in the implicit limit state functions considering various thicknesses. The probability of failure of the most critical points in the concrete slab is obtained. According to this study, the probabilities of failure obtained from the CFR dam including friction contact are lower. When the welded contact is considered in joints, the probability of failure of the concrete slab is 1 due to tensile stress limit state and compression stress limit state only if concrete slab is linear. The most critical probability of failure of the concrete slab appears in the case that the concrete slab is linear and rockfill is materially nonlinear. The probability of failure of the concrete slab decreases if the nonlinearity of the concrete is considered. Also, hydrodynamic pressure decreases the reliability of the concrete slab. 相似文献
19.
大震下被动与智能隔震结构动力可靠度的对比 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
对被动及智能隔震结构在“大震”条件下的动力可靠度进行探讨。将被动及智能隔震体系均取作弹塑性模型,并用退化Bouc-W en滞变模型描述上部结构的恢复力,用非退化Bouc-W en模型描述隔震层的恢复力。采用虚拟激励法计算结构的随机响应,根据我国抗震规范中“大震不倒”的设防目标,采用各层最大层间位移峰值响应和累积滞变耗能构造双参数的随机疲劳累积损伤指数,作为功能状态指标。假定各层失效相关,用串联系统计算体系动力可靠度。通过数值算例,对比了被动隔震、智能隔震与非隔震体系的条件失效概率,从动力可靠度角度显示了智能隔震体系的减震优势。 相似文献