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1.
Brendon A. Bradley 《地震工程与结构动力学》2013,42(11):1717-1729
The last decade of performance‐based earthquake engineering (PBEE) research has seen a rapidly increasing emphasis placed on the explicit quantification of uncertainties. This paper examines uncertainty consideration in input ground‐motion and numerical seismic response analyses as part of PBEE, with particular attention given to the physical consistency and completeness of uncertainty consideration. It is argued that the use of the commonly adopted incremental dynamic analysis leads to a biased representation of the seismic intensity and that when considering the number of ground motions to be used in seismic response analyses, attention should be given to both reducing parameter estimation uncertainty and also limiting ground‐motion selection bias. Research into uncertainties in system‐specific numerical seismic response analysis models to date has been largely restricted to the consideration of ‘low‐level’ constitutive model parameter uncertainties. However, ‘high‐level’ constitutive model and model methodology uncertainties are likely significant and therefore represent a key research area in the coming years. It is also argued that the common omission of high‐level seismic response analysis modelling uncertainties leads to a fallacy that ground‐motion uncertainty is more significant than numerical modelling uncertainty. The author's opinion of the role of uncertainty analysis in PBEE is also presented. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
2.
The convex model approach is applied to derive the robust seismic fragility curves of a five-span isolated continuous girder bridge with lead rubber bearings (LRB) in China. The uncertainty of structure parameters (the yield force and the post-yield stiffness of LRB, the yield strength of steel bars, etc.) are considered in the convex model, and the uncertainty of earthquake ground motions is also taken into account by selecting 40 earthquake excitations of peak ground acceleration magnitudes ranging from 0.125 to 1.126 g. A 3-D finite element model is employed using the software package OpenSees by considering the nonlinearity in the bridge piers and the isolation bearings. Section ductility of piers and shearing strain isolation bearings are treated as damage indices. The cloud method and convex model approach are used to construct the seismic fragility curves of the bridge components (LRB and bridge piers) and the bridge system, respectively. The numerical results indicate that seismic fragility of the bridge system and bridge components will be underestimated without considering the uncertainty of structural parameters. Therefore, the failure probability P f,max had better be served as the seismic fragility, especially, the fragility of the bridge system is largely dictated by the fragility of LRB. Finally, the probabilistic seismic performance evaluation of the bridge is carried out according to the structural seismic risk estimate method. 相似文献
3.
Probabilistic risk analysis is an effective tool for risk-informed decision-making related to the building facilities. All sources of the uncertainties should be considered in seismic risk assessment framework. Not only the levels of these uncertainties but also the effects on the performance of the buildings should be clearly identified. This paper aims to assess the impacts of the potential uncertainties on the seismic risk of steel frame equipped with steel panel wall (SPWF). Firstly, the performance limits of the SPWF structures are determined according to cyclic test results of two SPWF specimens. Then a validated numerical model of a 12-story SPWF building is modeled and used to perform the nonlinear time-history analysis, and the record-to-record uncertainty is identified by a set of ground motions derived from SAC project. Furthermore, comparisons are made on fragility curves for the building with or without considering the combining uncertainties in structural system, in defining performance limits and modeling technology. Finally, the annual probability and probability in 50 years for each performance limit is calculated and compared. The impacts of such uncertainties on seismic risk of SPWF building are quantified for risk-informed evaluation of the SPWF buildings. 相似文献
4.
Iunio Iervolino 《地震工程与结构动力学》2017,46(10):1711-1723
State‐of‐the‐art approaches to probabilistic assessment of seismic structural reliability are based on simulation of structural behavior via nonlinear dynamic analysis of computer models. Simulations are carried out considering samples of ground motions supposedly drawn from specific populations of signals virtually recorded at the site of interest. This serves to produce samples of structural response to evaluate the failure rate, which in turn allows to compute the failure risk (probability) in a time interval of interest. This procedure alone implies that uncertainty of estimation affects the probabilistic results. The latter is seldom quantified in risk analyses, although it may be relevant. This short paper discusses some basic issues and some simple statistical tools, which can aid the analyst towards the assessment of the impact of sample variability on fragility functions and the resulting seismic structural risk. On the statistical inference side, the addressed strategies are based on consolidated results such as the well‐known delta method and on some resampling plans belonging to the bootstrap family. On the structural side, they rely on assumptions and methods typical in performance‐based earthquake engineering applications. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
Fragility curves constitute an emerging tool for the seismic risk assessment of all constructions at risk. They describe the probability of a structure being damaged beyond a specific damage state for various levels of ground shaking. They are usually represented as two-parameter (median and log-standard deviation) cumulative lognormal distributions. In this paper a numerical approach is proposed for the construction of fragility curves for geotechnical constructions. The methodology is applied to cantilever bridge abutments on surface foundation often used in road and railway networks. The response of the abutment to increasing levels of seismic intensity is evaluated using a 2D nonlinear FE model, with an elasto-plastic criterion to simulate the soil behavior. A calibration procedure is followed in order to account for the dependency of both the stiffness and the damping on the soil strain level. The effect of soil conditions and ground motion characteristics on the global soil and structural response is taken into account considering different typical soil profiles and seismic input motions. The objective is to assess the vulnerability of the road network as regards the performance of the bridge abutments; therefore, the level of damage, is described in terms of the range of settlement that is observed on the backfill. The effect of backfill material to the overall response of the abutment wall is also examined. The fragility curves are estimated based on the evolution of damage with increasing earthquake intensity. The proposed approach allows the evaluation of new fragility curves considering the distinctive features of the structure geometry, the input motion and the soil properties as well as the associated uncertainties. The proposed fragility curves are verified based on observed damage during the 2007 Niigata-Chuetsu Oki earthquake. 相似文献
6.
以美国西部地区某斜交公路连续刚构桥为研究对象，研究其不等高墩易损性差异以及斜交角的改变对桥墩地震易损性的影响。考虑桥梁结构参数和地震动的不确定性，选取100条地震动，沿纵桥向输入，生成"结构-地震动"样本库，以地震动峰值加速度（PGA）为强度指标（IM），利用OpenSees软件对结构进行非线性时程分析得到桥墩动力响应，而后以桥墩曲率延性比衡量桥梁破坏状态，在确定桥墩损伤指标的基础上，采用可靠度理论得到各桥墩的地震易损性曲线，判断桥墩的损伤模式、损伤特点。在此基础上，改变桥梁斜交角度进行易损性分析，得到斜交角变化对桥墩地震易损性的影响。研究表明：该桥最矮墩发生损伤的概率大于其他桥墩，桥墩最先进入塑性的是墩顶和墩底区域；不同斜交角对桥墩的地震响应影响显著，各墩损伤破坏排序与斜交桥结构构造特点有关，同一排架墩的两侧墩柱易损性呈现与角度变化趋势相反的排列，损伤越严重，趋势越明显；对于此不等高的斜交刚构桥，最矮墩为其抗震薄弱环节，斜交角越大，越应该关注钝角处矮墩的损伤情况，并提高其设计标准，在进行斜交刚构桥抗震设计中应予以重视。 相似文献
7.
A fundamental tool in seismic risk assessment of transportation systems is the fragility curve, which describes the probability that a structure will reach or exceed a certain damage state for a given ground motion intensity. Fragility curves are usually represented by two‐parameter (median and log‐standard deviation) cumulative lognormal distributions. In this paper, a numerical approach, in the spirit of the IDA, is applied for the development of fragility curves for highways and railways on embankments and in cuts due to seismic shaking. The response of the geo‐construction to increasing levels of seismic intensity is evaluated using a 2D nonlinear finite element model, with an elasto‐plastic criterion to simulate the soil behavior. A calibration procedure is followed in order to account for the dependency of both the stiffness and the damping to the soil strain level. The effect of soil conditions and ground motion characteristics on the response of the embankment and cut is taken into account considering different typical soil profiles and seismic input motions. This study will provide input for the assessment of the vulnerability of the road/railway network regarding the performance of the embankments and cuts; therefore, the level of damage is described in terms of the permanent ground displacement in these structures. The fragility curves are estimated based on the evolution of damage with increasing earthquake intensity, which is described by PGA. The proposed approach allows the evaluation of new fragility curves considering the distinctive features of the element's geometry, the input motion, and the soil properties as well as the associated uncertainties. A relationship between the computed permanent ground displacement on the surface of the embankment and the PGA in the free field is also suggested based on the results of the numerical analyses. Finally, the proposed fragility curves are compared with existing empirical data and the limitations of their applicability are outlined. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
Masoud Moghaddasi Misko Cubrinovski J. Geoff Chase Stefano Pampanin Athol Carr 《地震工程与结构动力学》2011,40(2):135-154
Complex seismic behaviour of soil–foundation–structure (SFS) systems together with uncertainties in system parameters and variability in earthquake ground motions result in a significant debate over the effects of soil–foundation–structure interaction (SFSI) on structural response. The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of foundation flexibility on the structural seismic response by considering the variability in the system and uncertainties in the ground motion characteristics through comprehensive numerical simulations. An established rheological soil‐shallow foundation–structure model with equivalent linear soil behaviour and nonlinear behaviour of the superstructure has been used. A large number of models incorporating wide range of soil, foundation and structural parameters were generated using a robust Monte‐Carlo simulation. In total, 4.08 million time‐history analyses were performed over the adopted models using an ensemble of 40 earthquake ground motions as seismic input. The results of the analyses are used to rigorously quantify the effects of foundation flexibility on the structural distortion and total displacement of the superstructure through comparisons between the responses of SFS models and corresponding fixed‐base (FB) models. The effects of predominant period of the FB system, linear vs nonlinear modelling of the superstructure, type of nonlinear model used and key system parameters are quantified in terms of different probability levels for SFSI effects to cause an increase in the structural response and the level of amplification of the response in such cases. The results clearly illustrate the risk of underestimating the structural response associated with simplified approaches in which SFSI and nonlinear effects are ignored. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
采用对角斜撑模拟纵向填充墙的作用，建立考虑填充墙和不考虑填充墙厂房结构模型，采用拉丁超立方抽样技术建立考虑材料不确定性的结构分析样本，基于随机Pushover分析确定结构不同破坏状态下的统计参数。综合考虑结构材料强度及输入地震动不确定性的影响，通过非线性时程分析开展单层钢筋混凝土厂房结构易损性研究，在此基础上比较结构横、纵向易损性的差异，研究填充墙对结构易损性的影响。研究结果表明:钢筋混凝土厂房结构体系横向地震易损性显著大于纵向地震易损性；对纵向结构体系而言，加入填充墙会明显降低结构易损性，但在相同强度的地震动作用下，填充墙破坏程度比主体结构严重，这与厂房结构的实际震害特征相符。 相似文献
10.
确定地震动输入样本容量是开展结构动力地震反应分析的重要环节,目前国内外关于地震动输入样本容量的讨论往往忽略或尚难以定量考虑结构地震反应估计的可靠度水平。以一实际钢筋混凝土框架结构为例,首先分析在大样本地震动作用下结构非线性地震反应的统计特征,研究估计结构地震反应时取样本最大值和平均值的差异,然后借助于假设检验分析结构地震反应的概率分布模型,给出基于一致可靠度的地震动样本容量确定方法,并对比分析单周期点、多周期点、谱值匹配调整地震动及人工合成地震动对样本容量需求的影响,为保证在小样本地震动输入下结构地震反应估计值满足给定可靠度和容许误差提供分析方法和判断依据。本文方法适应于定量确定不同结构类型和不同地震强度水平下的地震动样本容量需求,对建筑结构抗震性能评估及设计规范研究有一定意义。 相似文献
11.
Using experimental data to reduce the single-building sigma of fragility curves: case study of the BRD tower in Bucharest, Romania 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Matthieu Perrault Philippe Gueguen Alexandru Aldea Sorin Demetriu 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2013,12(4):643-658
The lack of knowledge concerning modelling existing buildings leads to significant variability in fragility curves for single or grouped existing buildings. This study aims to investigate the uncertainties of fragility curves, with special consideration of the single-building sigma. Experimental data and simplified models are applied to the BRD tower in Bucharest, Romania, a RC building with permanent instrumentation. A three-step methodology is applied： （1） adjustment of a linear MDOF model for experimental modal analysis using a Timoshenko beam model and based on Anderson＇s criteria, （2） computation of the structure＇s response to a large set of accelerograms simulated by SIMQKE software, considering twelve ground motion parameters as intensity measurements （IM）, and （3） construction of the fragility curves by comparing numerical interstory drift with the threshold criteria provided by the Hazus methodology for the slight damage state. By introducing experimental data into the model, uncertainty is reduced to 0.02 considering Sd ） as seismic intensity IM and uncertainty related to the model is assessed at 0.03. These values must be compared with the total uncertainty value of around 0.7 provided by the Hazus methodology. 相似文献
12.
《地震工程与结构动力学》2018,47(4):1054-1074
Assessment of the seismic performance of existing structures requires due consideration of both aleatory and epistemic sources of uncertainty; the former being typically associated with the randomness in ground motion records and the latter with the uncertainty in numerical modelling. Using a numerical modelling approach calibrated to available experimental test data collected from the literature, the uncertainty associated with different modelling parameters for existing reinforced concrete frames in Italy was quantified via an extensive numerical study. This was done to quantify the propagation of modelling parameter type uncertainty to the overall dispersion of the demand parameters typically used in seismic assessment, namely peak storey drift and peak floor accelerations. In addition, the impact of such modelling uncertainty on the median intensity and dispersion of the collapse fragility function was also examined. From the results of this study, empirical values of modelling parameter uncertainty were quantified with a view to being used in the assessment of existing reinforced concrete frames with masonry infill designed prior to the introduction of seismic design provisions in Italy during the 1970s. Comparing these empirical values to those available in the literature, it is seen how the fundamental behaviour of the frames differs from more modern frames with ductile detailing to the extent that values available in guidelines such as FEMA P58 cannot be reasonably adopted for these structural typologies. 相似文献
13.
This study investigates the number of real ground motions (GMs) required to accurately capture the structural responses when using code-, intensity-, and risk-based seismic assessment frameworks. A key consideration is the use of as-recorded hazard consistent GMs, which appropriately characterize the seismic hazard of the site, for performing response history analysis. A comparison of the structural responses of 3 steel moment resisting buildings using different sets of GMs is made with results obtained using a large set of GMs. The empirical results demonstrate that, in most cases, a risk-based assessment needs a larger number of response history analyses than an intensity-based assessment method to accurately capture the seismic demand on the structural systems. Also, given the same number of GMs, the structural responses from a risk-based assessment are more reliable and stable than those for an intensity-based method. Moreover, the results help to quantify the uncertainty in the structural responses due to using different sample sets of GMs given the applied number of GMs. In addition, the results indicate that a significant bias in structural responses is likely when following the recommendations from several seismic design codes, which suggest utilizing the maximum structural responses if 3 GM pairs are used for response history analysis. A detailed statistical analyses show that the application of 7 GM pairs are sufficient to accurately and reliably estimate structural responses. 相似文献
14.
The response and damage assessment of engineering structures under near-field ground motions is currently of great interest. Near-field ground motion with directivity focusing or fling effects produces pulse-like ground motion that has characteristics different from those of ordinary records. This paper develops simple deterministic and probabilistic models for near-field pulse-like ground motions. These models belong to the class of engineering models that aim to replicate some of the gross features observed in near-field records. The ground velocity is expressed as a steady-state function or a stationary random process modulated by an envelope function. Both models account for the non-stationarity and the multiple pulses in the ground velocity. While the deterministic model is similar to some of the models developed earlier, the probabilistic model facilitates handling uncertainties in the ground motion and variability in the structure's properties. For instance, this model combined with structural reliability methods can be used for reliability assessment of structures under near-field random ground motion. The reduction of the structural response by adding supplemental dampers is also investigated. 相似文献
15.
An algorithm is presented for the selection of ground motions for use in seismic response analysis. The algorithm is based on the use of random realizations from the conditional multivariate distribution of ground motion intensity measures, IM|IMj, obtained from the generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach. The algorithm can be applied to the selection of both as-recorded amplitude-scaled and synthetic/simulated ground motions. A key feature is that the generality of the GCIM methodology allows for ground motion selection based on only explicit measures of the ground motions themselves, as represented by the various IM’s considered, rather than implicit causal parameters (e.g., source magnitude, source-to-site distance) which are presently used in other contemporary ground motion selection procedures. Several examples are used to illustrate the salient features of the algorithm, including: the effect of intensity measures considered; and the properties of ground motions selected for multiple exceedance probabilities. The flexibility of the proposed algorithm coupled with the GCIM methodology allows for objective and consistent ground motion selection as a natural extension of seismic hazard analysis. 相似文献
16.
In this article we present the modelling of uncertainty in strong-motion studies for engineering applications, particularly
for the assessment of earthquake hazard. We examine and quantify the sources of uncertainty in the basic variables involved
in ground motion estimation equations, including those associated with the seismological parameters, which we derive from
a considerable number of strong-motion records. Models derived from regression analysis result in ground motion equations
with uncertain parameters, which are directly related to the selected basic variables thus providing an uncertainty measure
for the derivative variable. These uncertainties are exemplified and quantified. An alternative approach is presented which
is based on theoretical modelling defining a functional relationship on a set of independent basic variables. Uncertainty
in the derivative variable is then readily obtained when the uncertainties of the basic variables have been defined. In order
to simplify the presentation, only the case of shallow strike-slip earthquakes is presented. We conclude that the uncertainty
is approximately the same as given by the residuals typical for regression modelling. This implies that uncertainty in ground
motion modelling cannot be reduced below certain limits, which is in accordance with findings reported in the literature.
Finally we discuss the implications of the presented methodology in hazard analyses, which is sensitive to the truncation
of the internal error term, commonly given as an integral part of ground motion estimation equations. The presented methodology
does not suffer from this shortcoming; it does not require truncation of the error term and yields realistic hazard estimates.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
17.
Estimates of the earthquake ground motion intensity over a geographical area have multiple uses, that is, emergency management, civil protection and seismic fragility assessment. In particular, with reference to fragility assessment, it is of interest to have estimates of the values of different ground-motion intensity measures in order to correlate them with the observed damage. To this purpose, the present paper uses a procedure recently proposed in the literature to estimate the ground-motion intensity for the 2012 Emilia mainshocks, considering different ground motion intensity measures and directionality effects. Ground motion prediction equations based on different site effect models, and spatial correlation models are calibrated for the Emilia earthquakes. The paper discusses the accuracy of the shakemaps obtained using the different soil effect models considered and presents the obtained shakemaps as supplementary material. The procedure presented in the paper is aimed at providing ground motion intensity values for seismic fragility assessment and is not intended as a tool to estimate shakemaps for rapid emergency assessment. 相似文献
18.
Esra Mete Güneyisi 《地震工程与结构动力学》2012,41(5):853-874
The present paper investigates the seismic reliability of the application of buckling restrained braces (BRBs) for seismic retrofitting of steel moment resisting framed buildings through fragility analysis. Samples of regular three‐storey and eight‐storey steel moment resisting frames were designed with lateral stiffness insufficient to comply with the code drift limitations imposed for steel moment resisting frame systems in earthquake‐prone regions. The frames were then retrofitted with concentrically chevron conventional braces and BRBs. To obtain robust estimators of the seismic reliability, a database including a wide range of natural earthquake ground motion records with markedly different characteristics was used in the fragility analysis. Nonlinear time history analyses were utilized to analyze the structures subjected to these earthquake records. The improvement of seismic reliability achieved through the use of conventional braces and BRBs was evaluated by comparing the fragility curves of the three‐storey and eight‐storey model frames before and after retrofits, considering the probabilities of four distinct damage states. Moreover, the feasibility of mitigating the seismic response of moment resisting steel structures by using conventional braces and BRBs was determined through seismic risk analysis. The results obtained indicate that both conventional braces and especially BRBs improve significantly the seismic behavior of the original building by increasing the median values of the structural fragility curves and reducing the probabilities of exceedance of each damage state. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
How to select the adequate real strong earthquake ground motion for seismic analysis and design of trucures is an essential problem in earthquake engineering research and practice.In the paper the concept of the severest design ground motion is proposed and a method is developed for comparing the severity of the recorded strong ground motions.By using this method the severest earthquake ground motions are selected out as seismic inputs to the structures to be designed from a database that consists of more than five thousand significant strong ground moton records collected over the world.The selected severest ground motions are very likely to be able to drive the structures to their critical response and thereby result in the highest damage potential.It is noted that for different structures with diffferent predominant natural periods and at different sites where structures are located the severest design ground motions are usually different.Finally.two examples are illustrated to demonstrate the rationality of the concept and the reliability of the selected design motion. 相似文献
20.
Different performance levels may be obtained for sideway collapse evaluation of steel moment frames depending on the evaluation procedure used to handle uncertainties. In this article, the process of representing modelling uncertainties, record to record (RTR) variations and cognitive uncertainties for moment resisting steel frames of various heights is discussed in detail. RTR uncertainty is used by incremental dynamic analysis (IDA), modelling uncertainties are considered through backbone curves and hysteresis loops of component, and cognitive uncertainty is presented in three levels of material quality. IDA is used to evaluate RTR uncertainty based on strong ground motion records selected by the k-means algorithm, which is favoured over Monte Carlo selection due to its time saving appeal. Analytical equations of the Response Surface Method are obtained through IDA results by the Cuckoo algorithm, which predicts the mean and standard deviation of the collapse fragility curve. The Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model is used to represent material quality based on the response surface coefficients. Finally, collapse fragility curves with the various sources of uncertainties mentioned are derived through a large number of material quality values and meta variables inferred by the Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy model based on response surface method coefficients. It is concluded that a better risk management strategy in countries where material quality control is weak, is to account for cognitive uncertainties in fragility curves and the mean annual frequency. 相似文献