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1.
ABSTRACT This study investigated the impacts of changes in land cover and climate on runoff and sediment yield in a river basin in India. Land Change Modeler was used to derive the future land cover and its changes using the Sankey diagram approach. The future climatic parameters were derived from five general circulation models for two emission scenarios with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The land cover and climate change impacts on runoff and sediment yield were estimated using SWAT model. The results show important changes in land cover and indicate that urban and agricultural areas strongly influence the runoff and sediment yield. Among the land cover and climate change impacts, climate has more predominant (70%–95%) impact. Runoff and sediment yield are likely to decrease in both RCP scenarios in the future period. The impacts of land cover changes are more prominent on sediment yield than runoff. 相似文献
2.
《水文科学杂志》2012,57(1):71-86
ABSTRACTClimate variability and human activities are considered to be the most likely reasons for negative trends in river inflow and the water level of some lakes and wetlands in the world. To quantify the uncertain impacts of climate variations and anthropogenic activities on Ajichay River flow in Iran, a multi-model ensemble approach based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method is applied. Several statistical and simulation-based methods are used to distinguish the impacts of climatic and anthropogenic factors on river flow. The results show that almost all the methods identified human activities as the dominant impact on streamflow (about 73–85% of the change). The between-model and within-model uncertainty analyses using BMA showed that the 95% uncertainty intervals of the individual approaches have relatively large deviation ranges. The BMA mean prediction could reduce the range of between-model uncertainties to 14–27% for climate impacts and 74–80% for human impacts. This approach provides a way to better understand the contributions of climatic and anthropogenic impacts on river flow change. 相似文献
3.
Chi Zhang Christine A. Shoemaker Joshua D. Woodbury Mingliang Cao Xueping Zhu 《水文研究》2013,27(17):2509-2523
The obvious decline in stream flow to the Biliu River reservoir over the period 1990–2005 has raised increasing concerns. Climate change and human activities, which mainly include land use changes, hydraulic constructions and artificial water consumption, are considered to be the most likely reasons for the decline in stream flow. This study centres on a detailed analysis of the runoff response to changes in human activities. Using a distributed hydrological model, (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), we simulated runoffs under different human activity and climate scenarios to understand how each scenario impacts stream flow. The results show that artificial water consumption correlates with the precipitation (wet, normal and dry) of the year in question and is responsible for most of the decrease in runoff during each period and for each different wetness year. A Fuzzy Inference Model is also used to find the relationship between the precipitation and artificial water consumption for different years, as well as to make inferences regarding the future average impact on runoff. Land use changes in the past have increased the runoff by only a small amount, while another middle reservoir (Yunshi) has been responsible for a decrease in runoff since operation began in 2001. We generalized the characteristics of the human activities to predict future runoff using climate change scenarios. The future annual flow will increase by approximately 10% from 2011 to 2030 under normal human activities and future climate change scenarios, as indicated by climate scenarios with a particularly wet year in the next 20 years. This study could serve as a framework to analyse and predict the potential impacts of changes both in the climate and human activities on runoff, which can be used to inform the decision making on the river basin planning and management. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
We assessed the relative hydrological impacts of climate change and urbanization using an integrated approach that links the statistical downscaling model (SDSM), the Hydrological Simulation Program—Fortran (HSPF) and the impervious cover model (ICM). A case study of the Anyangcheon watershed, a representative urban region in Korea, illustrates how the proposed framework can be used to analyse the impacts of climate change and urbanization on water quantity and quality. The evaluation criteria were measurements of low flow (99, 95, and 90 percentile flow), high flow (10, 5, and 1 percentile value), pollutant concentration (30, 10, and 1 percentile value), and the numbers of days required to satisfy the target water quantity and quality for a sensitive comparison of subtle impacts of variations in these measures. Nine scenarios, including three climate scenarios (present conditions, A1B, and A2) and three land use change scenarios, were analysed using the HSPF model. The impacts of climate change on low flow (34·1–59·8% increase) and high flow (29·1–37·1% increase) were found to be much greater than those on the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) (3·8–10·0% decrease). On the other hand, the impacts of urbanization on water quality (19·0–44·6% increase) are more significant than those on high (1·0–4·4% increase) and low flow (11·4–25·6% decrease). Furthermore, low flows are more sensitive to urbanization than high flows. The number of days required to satisfy the target water quantity and quality can be a sensitive criterion to compare the subtle impacts of climate and urbanization on human society, especially as they are much more sensitive than low flow and pollutant concentration. Finally, urbanization has a potent impact on BOD while climate change has a high impact on flow rate. Therefore, the impacts of both climate change and urbanization must be included in watershed management and water resources planning for sustainable development. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
Global climate change will likely increase temperature and variation in precipitation in the Himalayas, modifying both supply of and demand for water. This study assesses combined impacts of land‐cover and climate changes on hydrological processes and a rainfall‐to‐streamflow buffer indicator of watershed function using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Kejie watershed in the eastern Himalayas. The Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) was used for two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios (A2 and B2), for 2010–2099. Four land‐cover change scenarios increase forest, grassland, crops, or urban land use, respectively, reducing degraded land. The SWAT model predicted that downstream water resources will decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. Afforestation and expansion in cropland will probably increase actual evapotranspiration (ET) and reduce annual streamflow but will also, through increased infiltration, reduce the overland flow component of streamflow and increase groundwater release. An expansion in grassland will decrease actual ET, increase annual streamflow and groundwater release, while decreasing overland flow. Urbanization will result in increases in streamflow and overland flow and reductions in groundwater release and actual ET. Land‐cover change dominated over effects on streamflow of climate change in the short and middle terms. The predicted changes in buffer indicator for land‐use plus climate‐change scenarios reach up to 50% of the current (and future) range of inter‐annual variability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
Cui Tong Yang Tao Xu Chong-Yu Shao Quanxi Wang Xiaoyan Li Zhenya 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(6):1849-1866
The source region of Yellow river is an alpine river sensitive to climate changes, but the potential effects of climate change on hydrological regime characteristics and ecological implications are less understood. This study aims to assess the response of the alterations in the flow regimes over the source region of Yellow river to climate change using Soil and Water Integrated Model driven by different Global Circulation Models (GFDL-ESM2M, IPSL-CM5A-LR and MIROC-ESM-CHEM) under three Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Indicators of hydrological alteration and River impact index are employed to evaluate streamflow regime alterations at multiple temporal scales. Results show that the magnitude of monthly and annual streamflow except May, the magnitude and duration of the annual extreme, and the number of reversals are projected to increase in the near future period (2020–2049) and far future period (2070–2099) compared to the baseline period (1971–2000). The timing of annual maximum flows is expected to shift backwards. The source region of Yellow river is expected to undergo low change degree as per the scenarios RCP2.6 for both two future periods and under the scenarios RCP4.5 for the near future period, whereas high change degree under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the far period on the daily scale. On the monthly scale, climate changes mainly have effects on river flow magnitude and timing. The basin would suffer an incipient impact alteration in the far period under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, while low impact in other scenarios. These changes in flow regimes could have several positive impacts on aquatic ecosystems in the near period but more detrimental effects in the far period.
相似文献7.
Modelling feedbacks between geomorphological and riparian vegetation responses under climate change in a Mediterranean context 
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下载免费PDF全文 Vanesa Martínez‐Fernández Mijke Van Oorschot Marta González del Tánago Anthonie D. Buijse 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(9):1825-1835
Climate change is expected to alter temperatures and precipitation patterns, affecting river flows and hence riparian corridors. In this context we have explored the potential evolution of riparian corridors under a dryness gradient of flow regimes associated with climate change in a Mediterranean river. We have applied an advanced bio‐hydromorphodynamic model incorporating interactions between hydro‐morphodynamics and vegetation. Five scenarios, representing drier conditions and more extreme events, and an additional reference scenario without climate change, have been designed and extended until the year 2100. The vegetation model assesses colonization, growth and mortality of Salicaceae species. We analysed the lower course of the Curueño River, a free flowing gravel bed river (NW Spain), as a representative case study of the Mediterranean region. Modelling results reveal that climate change will affect both channel morphology and riparian vegetation in terms of cover, age distribution and mortality. Reciprocal interactions between flow conditions and riparian species as bio‐engineers are predicted to promote channel narrowing, which becomes more pronounced as dryness increases. Reductions in seedling cover and increases in sapling and mature forest cover are predicted for all climate change scenarios compared with the reference scenario, and the suitable area for vegetation development declines and shifts towards lower floodplain elevations. Climate change also leads to younger vegetation becoming more subject to uprooting and flooding. The predicted reduction in suitable establishment areas and the narrowing of vegetated belts threatens the persistence of the current riparian community. This study highlights the usefulness of advanced bio‐hydromorphodynamic modelling for assessing climate change effects on fluvial landscapes. It also illustrates the need to consider climate change in river management to identify appropriate adaptation measures for riparian ecosystems. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
ABSTRACTThe impacts of future climate change on the agricultural water supply capacities of irrigation facilities in the Geum River basin (9645.5 km2) of South Korea were investigated using an integrated modeling framework that included a water balance network model (MODSIM) and a watershed-scale hydrologic model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT). The discharges and baseflows from upland drainage areas were estimated using SWAT, and the predicted flow was used to feed agricultural reservoirs and multipurpose dams in subwatersheds. Using a split sampling method, we calibrated the daily streamflows and dam inflows at three locations using data from 6 years, including 3 years of calibration data (2005–2007) followed by 3 years of validation data (2008–2010). In the MODSIM model, the entire basin was divided into 14 subwatersheds in which various agricultural irrigation facilities such as agricultural reservoirs, pumping stations, diversions, culverts and groundwater wells were defined as a network of hydraulic structures within each subwatershed. These hydraulic networks between subwatersheds were inter-connected to allow watershed-scale analysis and were further connected to municipal and industrial water supplies under various hydrologic conditions. Projected climate data from the HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the period of 2006–2099 were imported to SWAT to calculate the water yield, and the output was transferred to MODSIM in the form of time-series boundary conditions. The maximum shortage rate of agricultural water was estimated as 38.2% for the 2040s and 2080s under the RCP 4.5 scenario but was lower under the RCP 8.5 scenario (21.3% in the 2040s and 22.1% in the 2080s). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the projected shortage rate was higher than that during the measured baseline period (1982–2011) of 25.6% and the RCP historical period (1982–2005) of 30.1%. The future elevated drought levels are primarily attributed to the increasingly concentrated rainfall distribution throughout the year under a monsoonal climate, as projected by the IPCC climate scenarios.
EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned 相似文献
9.
Watershed services are the benefits people obtain from the flow of water through a watershed. While demand for such services is increasing in most parts of the world, supply is getting more insecure due to human impacts on ecosystems such as climate or land use change. Population and water management authorities therefore require information on the potential availability of watershed services in the future and the trade-offs involved.In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model watershed service availability for future management and climate change scenarios in the East African Pangani Basin. In order to quantify actual “benefits”, SWAT2005 was slightly modified, calibrated and configured at the required spatial and temporal resolution so that simulated water resources and processes could be characterized based on their valuation by stakeholders and their accessibility. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate three management and three climate scenarios.The results show that by the year 2025, not primarily the physical availability of water, but access to water resources and efficiency of use represent the greatest challenges. Water to cover basic human needs is available at least 95% of time but must be made accessible to the population through investments in distribution infrastructure. Concerning the trade-off between agricultural use and hydropower production, there is virtually no potential for an increase in hydropower even if it is given priority. Agriculture will necessarily expand spatially as a result of population growth, and can even benefit from higher irrigation water availability per area unit, given improved irrigation efficiency and enforced regulation to ensure equitable distribution of available water. The decline in services from natural terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. charcoal, food), due to the expansion of agriculture, increases the vulnerability of residents who depend on such services mostly in times of drought. The expected impacts of climate change may contribute to an increase or decrease in watershed service availability, but are only marginal and much lower than management impacts up to the year 2025. 相似文献
10.
The responses of hydrological processes and sediment yield to land‐use and climate change in the Be River Catchment,Vietnam 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 In this study, we investigated the responses of hydrology and sediment yield with impacts of land‐use and climate change scenarios in the Be River Catchment, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a powerful tool for simulating the impact of environmental change on hydrology and sediment yield in this catchment. The hydrologic and sediment yield responses to land‐use and climate changes were simulated based on the calibrated model. The results indicated that a 16.3% decrease in forest land is likely to increase streamflow (0.2 to 0.4%), sediment load (1.8 to 3.0%), and surface runoff (SURQ) (4.8 to 10.7%) and to decrease groundwater discharge (GW_Q) (3.5 to 7.9%). Climate change in the catchment leads to decreases in streamflow (0.7 to 6.9%) and GW_Q (3.0 to 8.4%), increase in evapotranspiration (0.5 to 2.9%), and changes in SURQ (?5.3 to 2.3%) and sediment load (?5.3 to 4.4%). The combined impacts of land‐use and climate changes decrease streamflow (2.0 to 3.9%) and GW_Q (12.3 to 14.0%), increase evapotranspiration (0.7 to 2.8%), SURQ (8.2 to 12.4%), and sediment load (2.0 to 7.9%). In general, the separate impacts of climate and land‐use changes on streamflow, sediment load, and water balance components are offset each other. However, SURQ and some component of subsurface flow are more sensitive to land‐use change than to climate change. Furthermore, the results emphasized water scarcity during the dry season and increased soil erosion during the wet season. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
11.
Climate and land use changes greatly modify hydrologic regimes. In this paper, we modelled the impacts of biofuel cultivation in the US Great Plains on a 1061‐km2 watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model. The model was calibrated to monthly discharges spanning 2002–2010 and for the winter, spring, and summer seasons. SWAT was then run for a climate‐change‐only scenario using downscaled precipitation and a projected temperature for 16 general circulation model (GCM) runs associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 scenario spanning 2040–2050. SWAT was also run on a climate change plus land use change scenario in which Alamo switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) replaced native range grasses, winter wheat, and rye (89% of the basin). For the climate‐change‐only scenario, the GCMs agreed on a monthly temperature increase of 1–2 °C by the 2042–2050 period, but they disagreed on the direction of change in precipitation. For this scenario, decreases in surface runoff during all three seasons and increases in spring and summer evapotranspiration (eT) were driven predominantly by precipitation. Increased summer temperatures also significantly contributed to changes in eT. With the addition of switchgrass, changes in surface runoff are amplified during the winter and summer, and changes in eT are amplified during all three seasons. Depending on the GCM utilized, either climate change or land use change (switchgrass cultivation) was the dominant driver of change in surface runoff while switchgrass cultivation was the major driver of changes in eT. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
Identifying separate impacts of climate and land use/cover change on hydrological processes in upper stream of Heihe River,Northwest China 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Linshan Yang Qi Feng Zhenliang Yin Xiaohu Wen Jianhua Si Changbin Li Ravinesh C. Deo 《水文研究》2017,31(5):1100-1112
Climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) are two factors that produce major impacts on hydrological processes. Understanding and quantifying their respective influence is of great importance for water resources management and socioeconomic activities as well as policy and planning for sustainable development. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated in upper stream of the Heihe River in Northwest China. The reliability of the SWAT model was corroborated in terms of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), the correlation coefficient (R), and the relative bias error (BIAS). The findings proposed a new method employing statistical separation procedures using a physically based modeling system for identifying the individual impacts of climate change and LUCC on hydrology processes, in particular on the aspects of runoff and evapotranspiration (ET). The results confirmed that SWAT was a powerful and accurate model for diagnosis of a key challenge facing the Heihe River Basin. The model assessment metrics, NSE, R, and BIAS, in the data were 0.91%, 0.95%, and 1.14%, respectively, for the calibration period and 0.90%, 0.96%, and ?0.15%, respectively, for the validation period. An assessment of climate change possibility showed that precipitation, runoff, and air temperature exhibited upward trends with a rate of 15.7 mm, 6.1 mm, and 0.38 °C per decade for the 1980 to 2010 period, respectively. Evaluation of LUCC showed that the changes in growth of vegetation, including forestland, grassland, and the shrub area have increased gradually while the barren area has decreased. The integrated effects of LUCC and climate change increased runoff and ET values by 3.2% and 6.6% of the total runoff and ET, respectively. Climate change outweighed the impact of LUCC, thus showing respective increases in runoff and ET of about 107.3% and 81.2% of the total changes. The LUCC influence appeared to be modest by comparison and showed about ?7.3% and 18.8% changes relative to the totals, respectively. The increase in runoff caused by climate change factors is more than the offsetting decreases resulting from LUCC. The outcomes of this study show that the climate factors accounted for the notable effects more significantly than LUCC on hydrological processes in the upper stream of the Heihe River. 相似文献
13.
Abstract Climate change impacts on the availability of water resources. Projection of hydrological response to temperature change is valuable for water management. Such response may be complex and uncertain at the watershed scale and differences may exist between low and high latitudes. A simulation experiment was achieved by using SWAT modelling in the upstream watershed of Dongjiang River, South China. After calibration, the model was found appropriate for hydrological simulation in the study area and was run from 1995 to 2004 under a series of temperature change scenarios to reveal the response of streamflow and loads of sediment and nutrients. For a temperature increase of 3°C, streamflow, sediment and total phosphorus decreased by 5.2, 7.7 and 2.2%, respectively. Linear temperature change seemed to have a linear hydrological response. Nutrient deficiency was still the primary vegetation stress compared with water availability and temperature stress under rising temperatures. Comparison with previous research showed that two southern subtropical watersheds (one upstream and one downstream) gave different hydrological responses. Sediment and inorganic nitrogen loads decreased in the upstream watershed, but increased in the downstream one, when temperature increased. Under the warming scenarios, streamflow and sediment loads decreased throughout the year, especially during the wet season, which is different from results at high latitudes. Nutrient export decreased in April–June, but increased in the remaining months. Simulation results should be applied with caution in water resources management, as simulated climate change had variable hydrological influence in different regions and seasons. Citation Xu, H. and Peng, S.L., 2013. Distinct effects of temperature change on discharge and non-point pollution in subtropical southern China by SWAT simulation. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (5), 1032–1046. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor C.-Y. Xu 相似文献
14.
The run‐off volume altered by the construction of hydropower plants affects ecohydrological processes in catchments. Although the impacts of large hydropower plants have been well documented in the literature, few studies have been conducted on the impacts of small cascaded hydropower plants (SCHPs). To evaluate the impacts of SCHPs on river flow, we chose a representative basin affected by hydropower projects and, to a lesser degree, by other human activities, that is, the Qiuxiang River basin in Southern China. The observed river discharge and climate data during the period of 1958–2016 were investigated. The datasets were divided into a low‐impact period and a high‐impact period based on the number of SCHPs and the capacities of the reservoirs. The daily river discharge alteration was assessed by applying the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration. To separate the impact of the SCHPs on the local river discharge from that of climate‐related precipitation, the back‐propagation neural network was used to simulate the monthly average river discharge process. An abnormal result was found: Unlike large reservoirs in large watersheds, the SCHPs regulated the flows during the flood season but were not able to mitigate the droughts during the dry season due to their limited storage and the commonly occurring inappropriate interregulations of the SCHPs. The SCHPs also reduced the annual average river discharge in the research basin. The contribution of the SCHPs to the river discharge changes was 85.37%, much higher than the contributions of climate change (13.43%) and other human activities (1.20%). The results demonstrated that the impacts of the SCHPs were different from those of large dams and reservoirs that regulate floods and relieve droughts. It is necessary to raise the awareness of the impacts of these river barriers. 相似文献
15.
Environmental water quantity projections under market-driven and sustainability-driven future scenarios in the Narew basin,Poland 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
AbstractThe aim of this article is to assess the impact of four scenarios combining possible changes in climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide, land use and water use by 2050, on the specific set of ecologically relevant flow regime indicators that define environmental flow requirements in a semi-natural river basin in Poland. This aim is presented through a modelling case study using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Indicators show both positive and negative responses to future changes. Warm projections from the IPSL-CM4 global climate model combined with sustainable land- and water-use projections (SuE) produce the most negative changes, while warm and wet projections from the MIROC3.2 model combined with market-driven projections (EcF) gave the most positive changes. Climate change overshadows land- and water-use change in terms of the magnitude of projected flow alterations. The future of environmental water quantity is brighter under the market-driven rather than the sustainability-driven scenario, which shows that sustainability for terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. more forests and grasslands) can be at variance with sustainability for riverine and riparian ecosystems (requiring sufficient amount and proper timing of river flows).
Editor D. KoutsoyiannisCitation Piniewski, M., Okruszko, T., and Acreman, M.C., 2014. Environmental water quantity projections under market-driven and sustainability-driven future scenarios in the Narew basin, Poland. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 916–934. 相似文献
16.
Climate change is one of the main drivers of river warming worldwide. However, the response of river temperature to climate change differs with the hydrology and landscape properties, making it difficult to generalize the strength and the direction, of river temperature trends across large spatial scales and various river types. Additionally, there is a lack of long‐term and large‐scale trend studies in Europe as well as globally. In this study, we investigated the long‐term (25 years; 132 sites) and the short‐term (10 years; 475 sites) river temperature trends, patterns and underlying drivers within the period 1985–2010 in seven river basins of Germany. The majority of the sites underwent significant river warming during 1985–2010 (mean warming trend: 0.03 °C year?1, SE = 0.003), with a faster warming observed during individual decades (1985–1995 and 2000–2010) within this period. Seasonal analyses showed that, while rivers warmed in all seasons, the fastest warming had occurred during summer. Among all the considered hydro‐climatological variables, air temperature change, which is a response to climate forcing, was the main driver of river temperature change because it had the strongest correlation with river temperature, irrespective of the period. Hydrological variables, such as average flow and baseflow, had a considerable influence on river temperature variability rather than on the overall trend direction. However, decreasing flow probably assisted in a faster river temperature increase in summer and in rivers in NE basins (such as the Elbe basin). The North Atlantic Oscillation Index had a greater significant influence on the winter river temperature variability than on the overall variability. Landscape and basin variables, such as altitude, ecoregion and catchment area, induced spatially variable river temperature trends via affecting the thermal sensitivity of rivers, with the rivers in large catchments and in lowland areas being most sensitive. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
Stream temperature is an important control of many in-stream processes. There is rising concern about increases in stream temperature with projected climate changes and human-related water activities. Here, we investigate the responses to climate change and water diversions in Eel River basin. The increase in stream temperatures is considered to be the result of changes in air temperature, the proportion of base flow and the amount of stream flow derived from historical and future simulations using the integrated VIC hydrologic model and ANN stream temperature model. The results show that stream temperature will increase throughout the basin in the future under two climate change representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) and will also be influenced by the water diversion activities schedules. Specifically, the stream temperature increases, in the late twenty-first century under RCP8.5 scenarios, from 1.20 to 2.40 °C in summer and from 0.58–3.46 °C in winter respectively; Water diversion activities in Eel River Basin can increase nearly 1 °C in stream temperature. Therefore, both climate change and water diversion activities can substantially cause the rise of more than 2 °C in stream temperature. In conclusion, stream temperature is mainly sensitive to the proportion of base flow in summer, but also the change of the amount of stream flow in winter in our case study area. In addition, it should be noted that the low intensity irrigation schedule has lower impacts on increasing stream temperature, whereas the high intensity irrigation schedule will further exacerbate the rise of stream temperature. Understanding the different impacts of climate change scenarios and irrigation schedules on stream temperature can help identify climate-sensitive regions, climate-sensitive seasons and water diversion schedules as well as assist in planning for climate change and social adaptive management. 相似文献
18.
Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in semiarid regions: a case study of the Wei River basin,China 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activity on the hydrological processes in river basins is important for maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining local economic development. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate variability and human activity on mean annual flow in the Wei River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and wavelet transform were applied to detect the variations of hydrometeorological variables in the semiarid Wei River basin in the northwestern China. The identifications were based on streamflow records from 1958 to 2008 at four hydrological stations as well as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data from 21 climate stations. A simple method based on Budyko curve was used to evaluate potential impacts of climate change and human activities on mean annual flow. The results show that annual streamflow decreased because of the reduced precipitation and increased PET at most stations. Both annual and seasonal precipitation and PET demonstrated mixed trends of decreasing and increasing, although significant trends (P < 0.05) were consistently detected in spring and autumn at most stations. Significant periodicities of 0.5 and 1 year (P < 0.05) were examined in all the time series. The spectrum of streamflow at the Huaxian station shows insignificant annual cycle during 1971–1975, 1986–1993 and 1996–2008, which is probably resulted from human activities. Climate variability greatly affected water resources in the Beiluo River, whereas human activities (including soil and water conservation, irrigation, reservoirs construction, etc.) accounted more for the changes of streamflow in the area near the Huaxian station during different periods. The results from this article can be used as a reference for water resources planning and management in the semiarid Wei River basin. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
The HIRHAM regional climate model suggests an increase in temperature in Denmark of about 3 °C and an increase in mean annual precipitation of 6–7%, with a larger increase during winter and a decrease during summer between a control period 1961–1990 and scenario period 2071–2100. This change of climate will affect the suspended sediment transport in rivers, directly through erosion processes and increased river discharges and indirectly through changes in land use and land cover. Climate‐change‐induced changes in suspended sediment transport are modelled for five scenarios on the basis of modelled changes in land use/land cover for two Danish river catchments: the alluvial River Ansager and the non‐alluvial River Odense. Mean annual suspended sediment transport is modelled to increase by 17% in the alluvial river and by 27% in the non‐alluvial for steady‐state scenarios. Increases by about 9% in the alluvial river and 24% in the non‐alluvial river were determined for scenarios incorporating a prolonged growing season for catchment vegetation. Shortening of the growing season is found to have little influence on mean annual sediment transport. Mean monthly changes in suspended sediment transport between ? 26% and + 68% are found for comparable suspended sediment transport scenarios between the control and the scenario periods. The suspended sediment transport increases during winter months as a result of the increase in river discharge caused by the increase in precipitation, and decreases during summer and early autumn months. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):899-908
Abstract The SWAT model was used to investigate the impact of land-cover changes on the runoff of the River Nzoia catchment, Kenya. The model was calibrated against measured daily discharge, and land-cover changes were examined through classification of satellite images. Land-cover change scenarios were generated, namely the worst- and best-case scenarios. Historical land-cover change results showed that agricultural area increased from 39.6 to 64.3% between 1973 and 2001, while forest cover decreased from 12.3 to 7.0%. A comparison between 1970–1975 and 1980–1985 showed that land-cover changes accounted for a difference in surface runoff ranging from 55 to 68% between the two time periods. The land-cover scenarios used showed the magnitude of changes in runoff due to changes in the land covers considered. Compared to the 1980–1985 runoff, the land-cover scenarios generated changes in runoff of about ?16% and 30% for the best and worst case scenarios respectively. 相似文献