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1.
Abstract

Climate change will likely have severe effects on water shortages, flood disasters and the deterioration of aquatic systems. In this study, the hydrological response to climate change was assessed in the Wei River basin (WRB), China. The statistical downscaling method (SDSM) was used to downscale regional climate change scenarios on the basis of the outputs of three general circulation models (GCMs) and two emissions scenarios. Driven by these scenarios, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was set up, calibrated and validated to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological processes of the WRB. The results showed that the average annual runoff in the periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 would increase by 12.4% and 45%, respectively, relative to the baseline period 1961–2008. Low flows would be much lower, while high flows would be much higher, which means there would be more extreme events of droughts and floods. The results exhibited consistency in the spatial distribution of runoff change under most scenarios, with decreased runoff in the upstream regions, and increases in the mid- and lower reaches of the WRB.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Yang  相似文献   

2.
Global climate change will likely increase temperature and variation in precipitation in the Himalayas, modifying both supply of and demand for water. This study assesses combined impacts of land‐cover and climate changes on hydrological processes and a rainfall‐to‐streamflow buffer indicator of watershed function using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Kejie watershed in the eastern Himalayas. The Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) was used for two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios (A2 and B2), for 2010–2099. Four land‐cover change scenarios increase forest, grassland, crops, or urban land use, respectively, reducing degraded land. The SWAT model predicted that downstream water resources will decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. Afforestation and expansion in cropland will probably increase actual evapotranspiration (ET) and reduce annual streamflow but will also, through increased infiltration, reduce the overland flow component of streamflow and increase groundwater release. An expansion in grassland will decrease actual ET, increase annual streamflow and groundwater release, while decreasing overland flow. Urbanization will result in increases in streamflow and overland flow and reductions in groundwater release and actual ET. Land‐cover change dominated over effects on streamflow of climate change in the short and middle terms. The predicted changes in buffer indicator for land‐use plus climate‐change scenarios reach up to 50% of the current (and future) range of inter‐annual variability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
The evaluation of climate change and its side effects on the hydrological processes of the basin can increasingly help in dealing with the challenges that water resource managers and planners face in future courses. These side effects are investigated using the simulation of hydrological processes with the help of physical rainfall‐runoff model. Hydrological models provide a framework for examining the relationship between climate and water resources. This research aims at the investigation of the effect of climate change on the runoff of Gharesou, which is one of the main branches of the “Karkheh” River in Iran during the periods 2040–2069. To achieve this, the distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) – a model that is sensitive to the changes in land, water, and climate – has been used with the aim of evaluating the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Gharesou Basin. For this reason, first, the continuous distributed model of rainfall‐runoff SWAT for the period 1971–2000 has been calibrated and validated. Next, with the aim of evaluating the impact of climate change and global warming on the basin hydrology for the period 2040–2069, HadCM3‐AR4 global climate model data under the A2 scenario – from the SRES scenario set‐haves been downscaled. Eventually, the downscaled climate data haves been introduced in the SWAT model, and the future runoff changes have been studied. The results showed that the temperature increases in most of the months, and the precipitation rate exhibits a change in the range of ±30%. Moreover, the produced runoff in this period changes from ?90 to 120% during different months.  相似文献   

4.
Climate change and land use and cover change (LUCC) have had great impacts on watershed hydrological processes. Although previous studies have focused on quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on decreasing run‐off change, few studies have examined regions that have significant increasing run‐off due to both climate variability and land cover change. We show that annual run‐off had a significant increasing trend from 1956 to 2014 in the U.S. lower Connecticut River Basin. Abrupt change point years of annual run‐off for four subbasins are detected by nonparametric Mann–Kendall–Sneyers test and reconfirmed by the double mass curve. We then divide the study period into 2 subperiods at the abrupt change point year in the early 1970s for each subbasin. The Choudhury–Yang equation based on Budyko hypothesis was used to calculate precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, and landscape elasticities of run‐off. The results show that the difference in mean annual run‐off between 2 subperiods for each subbasin ranged from 102 to 165.6 mm. Climate variations were the primary drivers of increasing run‐off in this region. Quantitative contributions of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in all subbasins are 106.5% and ?3.6% on average, respectively. However, LUCC contributed both positively and negatively to run‐off: ?18.6%, ?13.3%, and 10.1% and 9.9% for 4 subbasins. This may be attributed to historical LUCC occurring after the abrupt change point in each subbasin. Our results provide critical insight on the hydrological dynamics of north‐east tidal river systems to communities and policymakers engaged in water resources management in this region.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract

The effect of using two distributed hydrological models with different degrees of spatial aggregation on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff was investigated. Analyses were conducted in the Narew River basin situated in northeast Poland using a global hydrological model (WaterGAP) and a catchment-scale hydrological model (SWAT). Climate change was represented in both models by projected changes in monthly temperature and precipitation between the period 2040–2069 and the baseline period, resulting from two general circulation models: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2, both coupled with the SRES A2 emissions scenario. The degree of consistency between the global and the catchment model was very high for mean annual runoff, and medium for indicators of high and low runoff. It was observed that SWAT generally suggests changes of larger magnitude than WaterGAP for both climate models, but SWAT and WaterGAP were consistent as regards the direction of change in monthly runoff. The results indicate that a global model can be used in Central and Eastern European lowlands to identify hot-spots where a catchment-scale model should be applied to evaluate, e.g. the effectiveness of management options.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor F.F. Hattermann

Citation Piniewski, M., Voss, F., Bärlund, I., Okruszko, T., and Kundzewicz. Z.W., 2013. Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 737–754.  相似文献   

6.
Climate warming is having profound effects on the hydrological cycle by increasing atmospheric demand, changing water availability, and snow seasonality. Europe suffered three distinct heat waves in 2019, and 11 of the 12 hottest years ever recorded took place in the past two decades, which will potentially change seasonal streamflow patterns and long-term trends. Central Europe exhibited six dry years in a row since 2014. This study uses data from a well-documented headwater catchment in Central Europe (Lysina) to explore hydrological responses to a warming climate. We applied a lumped parameter hydrologic model Brook90 and a distributed model Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) to simulate long-term hydrological change under future climate scenarios. Both models performed well on historic streamflow and in agreement with each other according to the catchment water budget. In addition, PIHM was able to simulate lateral groundwater redistribution within the catchment validated by the groundwater table dynamics. The long-term trends in runoff and low flow were captured by PIHM only. We applied different EURO-CORDEX models with two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 4.5, 8.5) and found significant impacts on runoff and evapotranspiration (ET) for the period of 2071–2100. Results from both models suggested reduced runoff and increased ET, while the monthly distribution of runoff was different. We used this catchment study to understand the importance of subsurface processes in projection of hydrologic response to a warming climate.  相似文献   

7.
ABSTRACT

Surface runoff generation capacity can be modified by land-use and climate changes. Annual runoff volumes have been evaluated in a small watershed of tropical forest (Brazil), using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Firstly, the accuracy of SWAT in runoff predictions has been assessed by default input parameters and improved by automatic calibration, using 20-year observations. Then, the hydrological response under land uses (cropland, pasture and deforested soil) alternative to tropical forest and climate change scenarios has been simulated. SWAT application has showed that, if forest was replaced by crops or pasture, the watershed’s hydrological response would not significantly be affected. Conversely, a complete deforestation would slightly increase its runoff generation capacity. Under forecasted climate scenarios, the runoff generation capacity of the watershed will tend to decrease and will not be noticeably different among the representative concentration pathways. Pasture and bare soil will give the lowest and highest runoff coefficients, respectively.  相似文献   

8.
Identifying the role of the two main driving factors—climate change and human interventions—in influencing runoff processes is essential for sustainable water resources management. For this purpose, runoff regime change detection methods were used to divide the available hydroclimatic variables into a baseline and a disturbed period. We applied hydrological modelling and the climate elasticity of runoff method to determine the contribution of climate change and human interventions to changes in runoff. The hydrological model, SWAT, was calibrated during the baseline period and used to simulate the naturalized runoff pattern for the disturbed period. Significant changes in runoff in the study watershed were detected from 1982, suggesting that human interventions play a dominant role in influencing runoff. The combined effects of climate change and human interventions resulted in a 41.3 mm (23.9%) decrease in runoff during the disturbed period, contributing about 40% and 60% to the total runoff change, respectively. Furthermore, analysis of changes in land cover dynamics in the watershed over the past four decades supported these changes in runoff. Contrary to other decades, the discrepancy between naturalized and observed runoff was small in the 2010s, likely due to increased baseflow as a result of storage and/or release of excess water during the dry season. This study contributes to our understanding of how climate change and human interventions affect hydrological responses of watersheds, which is important for future sustainable water management and drought adaptation.  相似文献   

9.
ABSTRACT

Climate models and hydrological parameter uncertainties were quantified and compared while assessing climate change impacts on monthly runoff and daily flow duration curve (FDC) in a Mediterranean catchment. Simulations of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using an ensemble of behavioural parameter sets derived from the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method were approximated by feed-forward artificial neural networks (FF-NN). Then, outputs of climate models were used as inputs to the FF-NN models. Subsequently, projected changes in runoff and FDC were calculated and their associated uncertainty was partitioned into climate model and hydrological parameter uncertainties. Runoff and daily discharge of the Chiba catchment were expected to decrease in response to drier and warmer climatic conditions in the 2050s. For both hydrological indicators, uncertainty magnitude increased when moving from dry to wet periods. The decomposition of uncertainty demonstrated that climate model uncertainty dominated hydrological parameter uncertainty in wet periods, whereas in dry periods hydrological parametric uncertainty became more important.
Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor S. Kanae  相似文献   

10.
Climate change and human activities are two major driving forces affecting the hydrologic cycle, which further influence the stationarity of the hydrologic regime. Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from the normal hydrologic conditions affected by these two phenomena. In this study, we propose a framework for quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought. First, trend analysis and change‐point test are performed to determine variations of hydrological variables. After that, the fixed runoff threshold level method (TLM) and the standardized runoff index (SRI) are used to verify whether the traditional assessment methods for hydrological drought are applicable in a changing environment. Finally, two improved drought assessment methods, the variable TLM and the SRI based on parameter transplantation are employed to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought based on the reconstructed natural runoff series obtained using the variable infiltration capacity hydrologic model. The results of a case study on the typical semiarid Laohahe basin in North China show that the stationarity of the hydrological processes in the basin is destroyed by human activities (an obvious change‐point for runoff series is identified in 1979). The traditional hydrological drought assessment methods can no longer be applied to the period of 1980–2015. In contrast, the proposed separation framework is able to quantify the contributions of climate change and human activities to hydrological drought during the above period. Their ranges of contributions to hydrological drought calculated by the variable TLM method are 20.6–41.2% and 58.8–79.4%, and the results determined by the SRI based on parameter transplantation method are 15.3–45.3% and 54.7–84.7%, respectively. It is concluded that human activities have a dominant effect on hydrological drought in the study region. The novelty of the study is twofold. First, the proposed method is demonstrated to be efficient in quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought. Second, the findings of this study can be used for hydrological drought assessment and water resource management in water‐stressed regions under nonstationary conditions.  相似文献   

11.
Watershed scale hydrological and biogeochemical models rely on the correct spatial‐temporal prediction of processes governing water and contaminant movement. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, one of the most commonly used watershed scale models, uses the popular curve number (CN) method to determine the respective amounts of infiltration and surface runoff. Although appropriate for flood forecasting in temperate climates, the CN method has been shown to be less than ideal in many situations (e.g. monsoonal climates and areas dominated by variable source area hydrology). The CN model is based on the assumption that there is a unique relationship between the average moisture content and the CN for all hydrologic response units (HRUs), and that the moisture content distribution is similar for each runoff event, which is not the case in many regions. Presented here is a physically based water balance that was coded in the SWAT model to replace the CN method of runoff generation. To compare this new water balance SWAT (SWAT‐WB) to the original CN‐based SWAT (SWAT‐CN), two watersheds were initialized; one in the headwaters of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia and one in the Catskill Mountains of New York. In the Ethiopian watershed, streamflow predictions were better using SWAT‐WB than SWAT‐CN [Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSE) of 0·79 and 0·67, respectively]. In the temperate Catskills, SWAT‐WB and SWAT‐CN predictions were approximately equivalent (NSE > 0·70). The spatial distribution of runoff‐generating areas differed greatly between the two models, with SWAT‐WB reflecting the topographical controls imposed on the model. Results show that a water balance provides results equal to or better than the CN, but with a more physically based approach. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Two hydrological models with different structures and spatial capabilities are selected to simulate the runoff and actual evapotranspiration (AET) in Yingluoxia watershed, the upper reaches of Heihe River basin in northwest of China, to validate their performances in simulating hydrological processes. They are calibrated against the observed runoff at the watershed outlet (Yingluoxia station) for the period from 1990 to 1996 and validated for the period from 1997 to 2000. Results show that in terms of the simulated hydrograph against observations and the two selected objective functions, the conceptual, lumped Water And Snow balance MODeling system (WASMOD) with simple model structure could give the same, even better results than the semi‐distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with complex structure. Compared with other model applications to the watershed, simulation for monthly runoff made in this study seems better. With regard to AET, results calculated from both models are comparable as well. Both WASMOD and SWAT are proved to be suitable and satisfactory tools in simulating hydrological processes in the study area, although both of them have strengths and limitations in applications. WASMOD model may be one of the promising alternatives in hydrological modelling. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Climate and land use changes greatly modify hydrologic regimes. In this paper, we modelled the impacts of biofuel cultivation in the US Great Plains on a 1061‐km2 watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model. The model was calibrated to monthly discharges spanning 2002–2010 and for the winter, spring, and summer seasons. SWAT was then run for a climate‐change‐only scenario using downscaled precipitation and a projected temperature for 16 general circulation model (GCM) runs associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 scenario spanning 2040–2050. SWAT was also run on a climate change plus land use change scenario in which Alamo switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) replaced native range grasses, winter wheat, and rye (89% of the basin). For the climate‐change‐only scenario, the GCMs agreed on a monthly temperature increase of 1–2 °C by the 2042–2050 period, but they disagreed on the direction of change in precipitation. For this scenario, decreases in surface runoff during all three seasons and increases in spring and summer evapotranspiration (eT) were driven predominantly by precipitation. Increased summer temperatures also significantly contributed to changes in eT. With the addition of switchgrass, changes in surface runoff are amplified during the winter and summer, and changes in eT are amplified during all three seasons. Depending on the GCM utilized, either climate change or land use change (switchgrass cultivation) was the dominant driver of change in surface runoff while switchgrass cultivation was the major driver of changes in eT. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Abstract

The impact of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield is investigated in the Be River catchment, Vietnam, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The sensitivity analysis, model calibration and validation indicated that the SWAT model could reasonably simulate the hydrology and sediment yield in the catchment. From this, the responses of the hydrology and sediment to climate change and land-use changes were considered. The results indicate that deforestation had increased the annual flow (by 1.2%) and sediment load (by 11.3%), and that climate change had also significantly increased the annual streamflow (by 26.3%) and sediment load (by 31.7%). Under the impact of coupled climate and land-use changes, the annual streamflow and sediment load increased by 28.0% and 46.4%, respectively. In general, during the 1978–2000 period, climate change influenced the hydrological processes in the Be River catchment more strongly than the land-use change.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Q. Zhang

Citation Khoi, D.N. and Suetsugi, T., 2014. Impact of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield—a case study of the Be River catchment, Vietnam. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (5), 1095–1108.  相似文献   

15.
The obvious decline in stream flow to the Biliu River reservoir over the period 1990–2005 has raised increasing concerns. Climate change and human activities, which mainly include land use changes, hydraulic constructions and artificial water consumption, are considered to be the most likely reasons for the decline in stream flow. This study centres on a detailed analysis of the runoff response to changes in human activities. Using a distributed hydrological model, (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), we simulated runoffs under different human activity and climate scenarios to understand how each scenario impacts stream flow. The results show that artificial water consumption correlates with the precipitation (wet, normal and dry) of the year in question and is responsible for most of the decrease in runoff during each period and for each different wetness year. A Fuzzy Inference Model is also used to find the relationship between the precipitation and artificial water consumption for different years, as well as to make inferences regarding the future average impact on runoff. Land use changes in the past have increased the runoff by only a small amount, while another middle reservoir (Yunshi) has been responsible for a decrease in runoff since operation began in 2001. We generalized the characteristics of the human activities to predict future runoff using climate change scenarios. The future annual flow will increase by approximately 10% from 2011 to 2030 under normal human activities and future climate change scenarios, as indicated by climate scenarios with a particularly wet year in the next 20 years. This study could serve as a framework to analyse and predict the potential impacts of changes both in the climate and human activities on runoff, which can be used to inform the decision making on the river basin planning and management. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Mountain and lowland watersheds are two distinct geographical units with considerably different hydrological processes. Understanding their hydrological processes in the context of future climate change and land use scenarios is important for water resource management. This study investigated hydrological processes and their driving factors and eco-hydrological impacts for these two geographical units in the Xitiaoxi watershed, East China, and quantified their differences through hydrological modelling. Hydrological processes in 24 mountain watersheds and 143 lowland watersheds were simulated based on a raster-based Xin'anjiang model and a Nitrogen Dynamic Polder (NDP) model, respectively. These two models were calibrated and validated with an acceptable performance (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients of 0.81 and 0.50, respectively) for simulating discharge for mountain watersheds and water level for lowland watersheds. Then, an Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) model was used to help quantify the alterations to the hydrological process and their resulting eco-hydrological impacts. Based on the validated models, scenario analysis was conducted to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on the hydrological processes. The simulation results revealed that (a) climate change would cause a larger increase in annual runoff than that under land use scenario in the mountain watersheds, with variations of 19.9 and 10.5% for the 2050s, respectively. (b) Land use change was more responsible for the streamflow increment than climate change in the lowland watersheds, causing an annual runoff to increase by 27.4 and 16.2% for the 2050s, respectively. (c) Land use can enhance the response of streamflow to the climatic variation. (d) The above-mentioned hydrological variations were notable in flood and dry season in the mountain watersheds, and they were significant in rice season in the lowland watersheds. (e) Their resulting degradation of ecological diversity was more susceptible to future climate change in the two watersheds. This study demonstrated that mountain and lowland watersheds showed distinct differences in hydrological processes and their responses to climate and land use changes.  相似文献   

17.
Hydrological models have long been used to study the interactions between land, surface and groundwater systems, and to predict and manage water quantity and quality. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), a widely used hydrological model, can simulate various ecohydrological processes on land and subsequently route the water quality constituents through surface and subsurface waters. So far, in-stream solute transport algorithms of the SWAT model have only been minimally revised, even though it has been acknowledged that an improvement of in-stream process representation can contribute to better model performance with respect to water quality. In this study, we aim to incorporate a new and improved solute transport model into the SWAT model framework. The new process-based model was developed using in-stream process equations from two well established models—the One-dimensional Transport with Inflow and Storage model and the Enhanced Stream Water Quality Model. The modified SWAT model (Mir-SWAT) was tested for water quality predictions in a study watershed in Germany. Compared to the standard SWAT model, Mir-SWAT improved dissolved oxygen (DO) predictions by removing extreme low values of DO (<6 mg/L) simulated by SWAT. Phosphate concentration peaks were reduced during high flows and a better match of daily predicted and measured values was attained using the Mir-SWAT model (R2 = 0.17, NSE = −0.65, RSR = 1.29 with SWAT; R2 = 0.28, NSE = −0.04, RSR = 1.02 with Mir-SWAT). In addition, Mir-SWAT performed better than the SWAT model in terms of Chlorophyll-a content particularly during winter months, improving the NSE and RSR for monthly average Chl-a by 74 and 42%, respectively. With the new model improvements, we aim to increase confidence in the stream solute transport component of the model, improve the understanding of nutrient dynamics in the stream, and to extend the applicability of SWAT for reach-scale analysis and management.  相似文献   

18.
In this study, we investigated the responses of hydrology and sediment yield with impacts of land‐use and climate change scenarios in the Be River Catchment, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a powerful tool for simulating the impact of environmental change on hydrology and sediment yield in this catchment. The hydrologic and sediment yield responses to land‐use and climate changes were simulated based on the calibrated model. The results indicated that a 16.3% decrease in forest land is likely to increase streamflow (0.2 to 0.4%), sediment load (1.8 to 3.0%), and surface runoff (SURQ) (4.8 to 10.7%) and to decrease groundwater discharge (GW_Q) (3.5 to 7.9%). Climate change in the catchment leads to decreases in streamflow (0.7 to 6.9%) and GW_Q (3.0 to 8.4%), increase in evapotranspiration (0.5 to 2.9%), and changes in SURQ (?5.3 to 2.3%) and sediment load (?5.3 to 4.4%). The combined impacts of land‐use and climate changes decrease streamflow (2.0 to 3.9%) and GW_Q (12.3 to 14.0%), increase evapotranspiration (0.7 to 2.8%), SURQ (8.2 to 12.4%), and sediment load (2.0 to 7.9%). In general, the separate impacts of climate and land‐use changes on streamflow, sediment load, and water balance components are offset each other. However, SURQ and some component of subsurface flow are more sensitive to land‐use change than to climate change. Furthermore, the results emphasized water scarcity during the dry season and increased soil erosion during the wet season. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Abstract

Among the processes most affected by global warming are the hydrological cycle and water resources. Regions where the majority of runoff consists of snowmelt are very sensitive to climate change. It is significant to express the relationship between climate change and snow hydrology and it is imperative to perform climate change impact studies on snow hydrology at global and regional scales. Climate change impacts on the mountainous Upper Euphrates Basin were investigated in this paper. First, historical data trend analysis of significant hydro-meteorological data is presented. Available future climate data are then explained, and, finally, future climate data are used in hydrological models, which are calibrated and validated using historical hydro-meteorological data, and future streamflow is projected for the period 2070–2100. The hydrological model outcomes indicate substantial runoff decreases in summer and spring season runoff, which will have significant consequences on water sectors in the Euphrates Basin.

Citation Yilmaz, A.G. & Imteaz, M.A. (2011) Impact of climate change on runoff in the upper part of the Euphrates basin. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1265–1279.  相似文献   

20.
Abstract

The Hulu Langat basin, a strategic watershed in Malaysia, has in recent decades been exposed to extensive changes in land-use and consequently hydrological conditions. In this work, the impact of Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) on hydrological conditions (water discharge and sediment load) of the basin were investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Four land-use scenarios were defined for land-use change impact analysis, i.e. past, present (baseline), future and water conservation planning. The land-use maps, dated 1984, 1990, 1997 and 2002, were defined as the past scenarios for LUCC impact analysis. The present scenario was defined based on the 2006 land-use map. The 2020 land-use map was simulated using a cellular automata-Markov model and defined as the future scenario. Water conservation scenarios were produced based on guidelines published by Malaysia’s Department of Town and Country Planning and Department of Environment. Model calibration and uncertainty analysis was performed using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm. The model robustness for water discharge simulation for the period 1997–2008 was good. However, due to uncertainties, mainly resulting from intense urban development in the basin, its robustness for sediment load simulation was only acceptable for the calibration period 1997–2004. The optimized model was run using different land-use maps over the periods 1997–2008 and 1997–2004 for water discharge and sediment load estimation, respectively. In comparison to the baseline scenario, SWAT simulation using the past and conservative scenarios showed significant reduction in monthly direct runoff and monthly sediment load, while SWAT simulation based on the future scenario showed significant increase in monthly direct runoff, monthly sediment load and groundwater recharge.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Perrin  相似文献   

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