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1.
The impact on a large-scale sea level pressure field to the regional mean sea level changes of the German Bight is analysed. A multiple linear regression together with an empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to describe the relationship between the sea level pressure and the regional mean sea level considering the time period 1924–2001. Both, the part of the variability and of the long-term trend that can be associated with changes in the sea level pressure, are investigated. Considering the whole time period, this regression explains 58?% of the variance and 33?% of the long-term trend of the regional mean sea level. The index of agreement between the regression result and the observed time series is 0.82. As a proxy for large-scale mean sea level changes, the mean sea level of the North East Atlantic is subsequently introduced as an additional predictor. This further improves the results. For that case, the regression explains 74?% of the variance and 87?% of the linear trend. The index of agreement rises to 0.92. These results suggest that the sea level pressure mainly accounts for the inter-annual variability and parts of the long-term trend of regional mean sea level in the German Bight while large-scale sea level changes in the North East Atlantic account for another considerable fraction of the observed long-term trend. Sea level pressure effects and the mean sea level of the North East Atlantic provide thus significant contributions to regional sea level rise and variability. When future developments are considered, scenarios for their future long-term trends thus need to be comprised in order to provide reliable estimates of potential future long-term changes of mean sea level in the German Bight.  相似文献   

2.
A long-term analysis of seasonal cycles of inorganic nutrients by means of a seasonal index is presented for the German Bight and the southern Wadden Sea (SE North Sea). Multivariate analysis for the German Bight data series revealed dependence of ammonium and phosphate index time series on dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations and riverine nutrient loads. Both indices are assumed to reflect seasonal dynamics of remineralisation processes associated with increased supply of organic matter. Temporal analysis revealed breaks in nutrient dynamics in 1970/1972 and 1979/1980. After 1970/1972, an unprecedented increase in the summer concentrations of mineralisation endproducts with correspondingly low index values were observed, which further declined after 1979/1980. Further breaks for Wadden Sea data series were identified in 1985 and 1988/1989. The indicative value of the temporal breaks with respect to eutrophication is discussed against the background of changes in meteoclimatic factors and local environmental conditions. Collated information on eutrophication effects was consistent with the observed breaks. It is suggested that the break in 1970/1972 in the German Bight was the first sign of ecosystem response to eutrophication in the SE North Sea.  相似文献   

3.
In this paper, mean sea level changes in the German Bight, the south-eastern part of the North Sea, are analysed. Records from 13 tide gauges covering the entire German North Sea coastline and the period from 1843 to 2008 have been used to derive high quality relative mean sea level time series. Changes in mean sea level are assessed using non-linear smoothing techniques and linear trend estimations for different time spans. Time series from individual tide gauges are analysed and then ‘virtual station’ time series are constructed (by combining the individual records) which are representative of the German Bight and the southern and eastern regions of the Bight. An accelerated sea level rise is detected for a period at the end of the nineteenth century and for another one covering the last decades. The results show that there are regional differences in sea level changes along the coastline. Higher rates of relative sea level rise are detected for the eastern part of the German Bight in comparison to the southern part. This is most likely due to different rates of vertical land movement. In addition, different temporal behaviour of sea level change is found in the German Bight compared to wider regional and global changes, highlighting the urgent need to derive reliable regional sea level projections for coastal planning strategies.  相似文献   

4.
The effect of large-scale atmospheric pressure changes on regional mean sea level projections in the German Bight in the twenty-first century are considered. A developed statistical model is applied to climate model data of sea level pressure for the twenty-first century to assess the potential contribution of large-scale atmospheric changes to future sea level changes in the German Bight. Using 78 experiments, an ensemble mean of 1.4-cm rise in regional mean sea level is estimated until the end of the twenty-first century. Changes are somewhat higher for realisations of the special report on emission scenarios (SRES) A1B and A2, but generally do not exceed a few centimeters. This is considerably smaller than the changes expected from steric and self-gravitational effects. Large-scale changes in sea level pressure are thus not expected to provide a substantial contribution to twenty-first century sea level changes in the German Bight.  相似文献   

5.
In recent studies, several benthic biological indices were developed or used to assess the ecological quality status of marine environments. In the present study the seasonal variability of several univariate and multimetric indices was studied on a monthly scale (September 2000 until May 2002) in different areas of the North Sea such as the German Bight, the Oyster Ground and the Dogger Bank. The stations were chosen to reflect a gradient in the hydrographic regime, temperature and organic matter supply. The seasonal variability was highest for the univariate indices such as the Shannon–Wiener Index and the Hurlbert Index. Thus, due to sensitivity to recruitment the corresponding ecological status ranged from ‘good’ to ‘poor’ depending on the season. For the multimetric indices such as the AMBI or the BQI the seasonal variability and the corresponding ecological status were low. The results are discussed concerning possible consequences for ecological quality assessment especially related to the Water Framework Directive (WFD).  相似文献   

6.
Nitrogen isotope values (δ15N) of surface sediments in the German Bight of the North Sea exhibit a significant gradient from values of 5–6‰ of the open shelf sea to values above 11‰ in the German Bight. This signal has been attributed to high reactive N (Nr) loading enriched in 15N from rivers and the atmosphere. To better understand the processes that determine the intensity and spatial distribution of δ15N anomalies in surface sediments, and to explore their usefulness for reconstructions of pristine N-input from rivers, we modeled the cycling of the stable isotopes 14N and 15N in reactive nitrogen through the ecosystem of the central and southern North Sea (50.9–57.3°N, 3.4°W−9.2°E) for the year 1995. The 3D-ecosystem model ECOHAM amended with an isotope-tracking module was validated by δ15N data of surface sediments within the model domain. A typical marine value (δ15Nnitrate=5‰) was prescribed for nitrate advected into the model domain at the seaside boundaries, whereas δ15Nnitrate of river inputs were those measured bi-monthly over 1 year; δ15N values of atmospheric deposition were set to 6‰ and 7‰ for NOx and NHy, respectively. The simulated δ15N values of different nitrogen compounds in the German Bight strongly depend on the mass transfers in the ecosystem. These fluxes, summarized in a nitrogen budget for 1995, give an estimate of the impacts of hydrodynamical and hydrological boundary conditions, and internal biogeochemical transformations on the nitrogen budget of the bight.  相似文献   

7.
The exceptional Oder flood in summer 1997 was a unique event in order to investigate the impacts on and the consequences for the ecosystem of the Baltic Sea of about 6.5 km3 additional water loaded with nutrients and contaminants and discharged within only 5 weeks. About 15 institutions participated in this investigation in both the Szczecin Lagoon and the Pomeranian Bight. The Baltic Sea Research Institute Warnemünde studied the water and nutrient inflow, the spreading of the Oder discharge, and the impact of the discharge on the ecosystem. The main topic of the presented investigations is a detailed study of the spatial and temporal spreading of the extreme river discharge in the Pomeranian Bight and the southern Baltic Sea by satellite data, ship observations and continuous buoy measurements as well as numerical modelling. The meteorological conditions were characterized by mainly easterly winds which guided the outflowing riverine water along the German coast into the Arkona Sea. The spatial and temporal development of the distribution patterns of the Oder discharge was monitored by about 80 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) images of NOAA satellites. Shipborne measurements showed that the vertical extent of the Oder plume ranged between 5 and 7 metres. The concentrations of inorganic nutrients, except higher silicate, were comparable to typical winter/early spring values (seasonal maximum) in this region. The high dilution effect of the flood water reduced the concentration of contaminants and thus, prevented a direct negative impact of trace metals and chlorinated organic compounds on the marine environment. Coupled physical-biochemical modelling in combination with SST-images demonstrated the temporal development and satellite data in the visible spectral range delivered the maximum extent of discharged river water into the southern Arkona Sea where a further western transport was limited by the upwelling region off Hiddensee. Thus, all detected effects of the Oder flood were confined to the Pomeranian Bight and the southern Arkona Sea, without long-term consequences for the ecosystem.  相似文献   

8.
Seasonal and long-term variability of the Rybinsk Reservoir level regime over the period of its operation was analyzed. Changes in the level regime at different phases of water content were shown together with the data on mean monthly and extreme level values and the rates of the reservoir filling and drawdown. The level regime impact on the functioning of individual components of the reservoir ecosystem was discussed. Due consideration was given to the assessment of changes in the reservoir environmental situation under the condition of the normal impounded water level drop by 1 m.  相似文献   

9.
Station Helgoland Roads in the south-eastern North Sea (German Bight) hosts one of the richest long-term time series of marine observations. Hydrodynamic transport simulations can help understand variability in the local data brought about by intermittent changes of water masses. The objective of our study is to estimate to which extent the outcome of such transport simulations depends on the choice of a specific hydrodynamic model. Our basic experiment consists of 3,377 Lagrangian simulations in time-reversed mode initialized every 7 h within the period Feb 2002–Oct 2004. Fifty-day backward simulations were performed based on hourly current fields from four different hydrodynamic models that are all well established but differ with regard to spatial resolution, dimensionality (2D or 3D), the origin of atmospheric forcing data, treatment of boundary conditions, presence or absence of baroclinic terms, and the numerical scheme. The particle-tracking algorithm is 2D; fields from 3D models were averaged vertically. Drift simulations were evaluated quantitatively in terms of the fraction of released particles that crossed each cell of a network of receptor regions centred at the island of Helgoland. We found substantial systematic differences between drift simulations based on each of the four hydrodynamic models. Sensitivity studies with regard to spatial resolution and the effects of baroclinic processes suggest that differences in model output cannot unambiguously be assigned to certain model properties or restrictions. Therefore, multi-model simulations are needed for a proper identification of uncertainties in long-term Lagrangian drift simulations.  相似文献   

10.
The trends of malformation prevalence in embryos of dab, Limanda limanda, in the southern North Sea after the year 1990 mirrored the drop in major pollutants in the rivers draining into the German Bight. Despite this general decline, we detected a pollution event in the southern North Sea in winter 1995/1996 employing the prevalence of malformations in pelagic dab embryos as an indicator. An abrupt rise in malformation prevalence in the embryos of dab, corresponded to a dramatic increase in DDT levels in parent fish from the same area, indicating a hitherto unnoticed introduction of considerable quantities of DDT into the system.  相似文献   

11.
Large-scale redistribution of sand by hydrodynamical processes in shelf seas is important for basin and coastal evolution on time scales of a thousand to tens of thousands of years. The influence of tides on the large-scale net sand-transport patterns in the North Sea has received much attention, but the influence of wind-driven flow and wind waves has hardly been investigated. Here, to establish the present-day situation and to develop a method that can also be used for palaeo-situations and forecasts for different sea levels, this influence is assessed for the present southern North Sea using a numerical flow model, a parametric wave model and a wave-averaged sand-transport formulation. Various forcing combinations are used to identify the dominant transport mechanisms: tides only, tides and wind, tides and waves, and combined tides, wind and waves. Wind forcing is applied in two ways to find an efficient, but still representative, method of incorporating this stochastic process: a statistical wind climatology and an observed time series. The results show that (i) the wind climatology yields a good approximation of the sand transport computed using the time series; (ii) wind-driven flow and waves only contribute significantly to the net sand transport by tides when acting together where tidal currents are small; and (iii) various combinations of forcings dominate the net sand transport in different regions of the southern North Sea: (a) tides dominate in the southern, middle and northwestern parts of the Southern Bight and in the region of The Wash; (b) tides, wind-driven flow and waves all are important in the northeastern part of the Southern Bight; and (c) wind-driven flow and waves dominate north of the Friesian Islands, in the German Bight and on the Dogger Bank. Qualitative comparison with observations shows good agreement.  相似文献   

12.
An essential prerequisite for the assessment of the ecological quality of marine ecosystems is the understanding of the natural variability and its effect on the performance of quality indices. This study is focused on the long-term natural variability of diversity, biotic and multimetric indices by using long-term macrofauna data of a coastal area in the southern North Sea (1978-2005). The univariate and most biotic and multimetric indices respond significantly on specific natural disturbance events such as cold winters, but the strength of response varied between indices as well as between events. As a result, the ecological quality status can decrease over a range of 3 (out of 5) classification units. The overall ecological quality was good to high, but an increase of indices occurred from the mid 1980s onwards due to changes in the climate regime. This long-term variability has to be considered within ecological quality assessment schemes.  相似文献   

13.
For the purpose of coastal planning and management, especially under changing climatic conditions, enhanced knowledge about the evolution of extreme sea levels in the past, present, and future is required. This paper presents statistical analyses of high seasonal water level percentiles of 13 tide gauges in the German Bight, spanning over a period of up to 109 years throughout the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Seasonal and annual high percentile time series of water levels were investigated in comparison to the mean sea level (MSL) for changes on seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal timescales. While throughout the first half of the twentieth century extreme water levels generally followed changes in MSL, during the second half of the century, linear extreme sea level trends exceeded those in MSL in the order of 9–64 cm per century. The largest, although insignificant, contribution to the magnitude of these trends occurs in the winter season (January to March), while smaller but, due to the generally lower atmospheric variability, significant changes are observed during spring (April to June). The observed multi-decadal trends are generally in good agreement with multi-decadal trends in the corresponding percentiles of local zonal surface winds. Only small parts of the trends remain unexplained. It is suggested that these remaining trends result from modifications in the local tidal regime. For the aspects of coastal planning, the findings clarify that in the German Bight, in addition to changes in MSL, potential changes in storminess and in the tidal regime significantly contribute to the development of extreme water levels. Since these factors have influenced the characteristic of extremes throughout the recent past, they also have to be taken into account when estimating design water levels for, e.g., dikes (in a warming climate) under changing greenhouse gas emissions.  相似文献   

14.
An idealized process-based model is developed to investigate tidal dynamics in the North Sea. The model geometry consists of a sequence of different rectangular compartments of uniform depth, thus, accounting for width and depth variations in a stepwise manner. This schematization allows for a quick and transparent solution procedure. The solution, forced by incoming Kelvin waves at the open boundaries and satisfying the linear shallow water equations on the f plane with bottom friction, is in each compartment written as a superposition of eigenmodes, i.e. Kelvin and Poincaré waves. A collocation method is employed to satisfy boundary and matching conditions. First, the general resonance properties of a strongly simplified geometry with two compartments, representing the Northern North Sea and Southern Bight, are studied. Varying the forcing frequency while neglecting bottom friction reveals Kelvin and Poincaré resonance. These resonances continue to exist (but with lower amplification and a modified spatial structure) when adding the Dover Strait as a third compartment and separating the solutions due to forcing from either the north or the south only. Including bottom friction dampens the peaks. Next, comparison with tide observations along the North Sea coast shows remarkable agreement for both semi-diurnal and diurnal tides. This result is achieved with a more detailed geometry consisting of 12 compartments fitted to the coastline of the North Sea. Further simulations emphasize the importance of Dover Strait and bottom friction. Finally, it is found that a sea level rise of 1 m, uniformly applied to the entire North Sea, amplifies the M2-elevation amplitudes almost everywhere along the coast, with an increase of up to 8 cm in Dover Strait. Bed level changes of ±1 m, uniformly applied to the Southern Bight only, imply weaker changes, with changes in coastal M2-elevation amplitudes below 5 cm.  相似文献   

15.
Significant wave height and mean wave period are two of the most commonly used parameters to describe wave climate, wave climate variability, and their potential long-term changes. While these parameters are generally useful to characterize the distribution of waves within a given sea state, they provide less information about potentially high-risk situations. Over the recent years, a number of criteria were suggested that are considered to better characterize high-risk situations and which could bear a potential for the development of safety warning indices. Based on a multi-decadal high-resolution wind-wave hindcast, a climatology of such parameters is developed for the North Sea covering the years 1958–2014. More specifically, average conditions, inter-annual variability and long-term changes for unusually steep, rapidly developing and crossing sea states are considered. Generally, there are pronounced spatial variations in the frequency of such sea states, while over time, there is some seasonal and inter-annual variability but no substantial long-term trend could be identified.  相似文献   

16.
Zusammenfassung Der starke Süßwassereintrag im Sommer 1987 führte in der Deutschen Bucht zu erhöhten Konzentrationen der anorganischen Stickstoffverbindungen. Keine Konzentrationserhöhung gegenüber den Sommer 1986 zeigte sich beim anorganischen gelösten Phosphat. Wie die im Vergleich zu normalen Sommern in Oberflächennähe hohen Nährstoffkonzentrationen und niedrigen pH-Werte zeigen, führte das erhöhte Nährstoffangebot nicht zu einer verstärkten Primäproduktion. Dies und eine wetterbedingte stärkere Wasserdurchmischung verhinderten ungünstige Auswirkungen auf den Sauerstoffhaushalt in der Deutschen Bucht.
Increased concentrations of the inorganic nitrogen compounds in the German Bight during the rainy summer 1987
Summary Due to the strong freshwater input during spring and summer 1987, increased concentrations of inorganic nitrogen were measured in the German Bight. Compared to 1986, no change was found in the concentration of dissolved inorganic phosphate. Relatively high nutrient concentrations and low pH values in the upper water layer indicate, that the increased nutrient supply was not utilized for primary production. Therefore, and due to a weak stratification no oxygen deficiency occured in the German Bight.
  相似文献   

17.
The ecological tidal model simulates the cycling of carbon, nitrogen, phosphate, and silicate and describes the tidal, diurnal, and annual dynamics of the back barrier area of the island Spiekeroog in the German Bight. The region is characterized by strong tidal currents and extensive tidal flats. It is strongly influenced by the conditions in the southern part of the German Bight. This model study investigates the dependence of the model behavior on the boundary conditions and the forcing. The effect of short- and long-term sea level rise on nutrient and plankton dynamics is analyzed. As the model is set up as semi-Lagrangian with only a coarse approximation of the hydrodynamics, the seasonal and intratidal variability in the biogeochemical cycling can only be reproduced qualitatively. By varying the boundary conditions, the intrinsic dynamics of the back barrier area can be separated from boundary condition effects. This study shows that any agreement between model results and field data cannot be expected without correct boundary conditions. The seasonal variability is of major importance, while higher-frequency variability only plays a minor role.  相似文献   

18.
We examine characteristics in the variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Yellow/East China Sea during the boreal winter (December–January–February) for the period 1950–2008 in observations. It is found that the mean SST in the Yellow Sea/East China Sea gradually increases during recent decades. A warming trend of a basin scale SST is significant in most of the regions in the Yellow/East Sea, which is well explained by the variability of the first empirical orthogonal function SST mode. We suggest one candidate mechanism that the North Pacific oscillation (NPO)-like sea level pressure play an important role to warm the Yellow/East China Sea. Anomalous anticyclonic circulation, which is the southern lobe of NPO-like sea level pressure over the North Pacific, causes a weakening of northerly mean winds over the Yellow/East China Sea during winter. This contributes to increase in the SST in the Yellow/East China Sea through the changes in the latent heat and sensible heat fluxes.  相似文献   

19.
Long-term variability of heat content (HC) in the upper 1,000 m of the Arctic Ocean is investigated using surface and subsurface temperature and current data during 1958–2005 compiled by Simple Ocean Data Assimilation. Annual cycle of the Arctic Ocean HC is controlled primarily by the negative and positive excursions in net upper ocean heat flux, while the inter-annual variability is mainly associated with meridional thermal advection from the North Atlantic Ocean. Variability in HC is experienced as a basin-wide cooling/warming in association with the Arctic Oscillation on a decadal time scale. In the first three dominant modes of Empirical Orthogonal Function, the maximum amplitude of HC variability occurs in the Greenland–Norwegian Sea and Eurasian Basin. In general, HC showed increasing trend during 1958–2005 indicating continuous warming with regional variations in magnitude.  相似文献   

20.
A model system consisting of a three-dimensional circulation and transport model is used to simulate the dispersal of herring larvae in the North Sea. The driving forces of the circulation model are theM2-tide, time dependent wind stress and air pressure fields, as well as monthly climatological density fields interpolated on a daily basis. The transport model includes advection as well as diffusion and uses a tracer technique to pursue the larvae in the time and space domain. Furthermore, the transport model incorporates a simulation of active vertical movement of the larvae as vertical migration has a marked effect on the drift route of the larvae.Simulated North Sea currents are compared to observed currents gained during the Autumn Circulation Experiment (ACE) which took place from August 1987 to March 1988. The variability in observed currents at the location of the moorings is found to be larger than in the simulated currents. On a larger scale, the simulated circulation in the northern North Sea shows a close correspondence to the inferred circulation from a quasi-synoptic hydrographic survey. The quality of the predictions of larval transport and distribution patterns by the model system is tested using sequential larvae distributions observed during ACE. Common features and discrepancies of observed and simulated distributions are discussed and conclusions for further field investigations and modelling studies are drawn.  相似文献   

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