共查询到18条相似文献，搜索用时 140 毫秒
1.
栅格新安江模型在天津于桥水库流域上游的应用 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
栅格新安江模型是在概念性新安江模型的理论基础上,以栅格为计算单元,结合地形地貌和下垫面特性构建出来的水文模型.在于桥水库流域上游的水平口流域应用栅格新安江模型,研究该地区洪水要素的空间变化以及洪水形成过程,讨论洪水模拟效果来验证模型在半湿润地区的适用性.选取水平口流域1978-2012年的洪水进行模型计算,模拟结果较好地反映了流域产流面积的时空变化,且均达到乙级以上精度.初步表明栅格新安江模型在半湿润地区有较好的适用性. 相似文献
2.
中国北方半干旱地区的降水与下垫面条件具有明显的时空异质性,如何完整准确地描述该类区域的水文过程是当代水文学研究的难点之一.选择半干旱地区水文实验区域——绥德流域和曹坪流域,通过构建不同时空规律的降水场,并结合3种不同产流机制的水文模型,进行大型数值模拟实验,去探究时间、空间、产流机制等因素对半干旱地区洪水模拟的影响,为该类地区水文模型的研制工作提供借鉴.结果 表明:1)半干旱地区中小流域的产流对降雨强度较为敏感,因此降水输入的时间步长对洪水模拟效果的影响程度较大;相比之下,流域雨量站数量的增减,仅体现在降雨分布场的暴雨中心缺失以及面平均降雨量的微小差别,对洪水模拟效果的影响程度较小.2)水文模型能否准确描述主导水文过程是半干旱地区洪水模拟效果优良的关键,流域的尺度效应及其下垫面条件的空间异质性是半干旱地区不同水文模型研制和调整应当优先考虑的问题,无论时间步长、雨量站数量怎么组合,产流结构适宜的模型其模拟效果总是趋于较好的结果. 相似文献
3.
半湿润流域水文模型比较与集合预报 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
选择7种水文模型分别在中国北部3个半湿润流域做模拟对比,分析不同水文模型在各流域的适用性,并使用贝叶斯模型平均法对不同模型集合,比较各种集合方法的优势,研究贝叶斯模型平均法的应用效果.研究结果表明,以蓄满产流模式为主的模型在半湿润流域应用效果较好,针对不同流域特点对传统模型进行改进可以提高模拟精度.贝叶斯模型平均法能提供较好的确定性预报结果和概率预报结果,仅对少数模拟效果好的模型进行集合,并不能有效提高预报精度,适当增加参与集合的模型数量能使贝叶斯模型平均法更好地综合各模型优势,提高预报结果的精度. 相似文献
4.
新安江模型河网汇流参数Cs对洪峰模拟影响较大,目前Cs的确定需依赖于大量的历史数据,因此Cs的确定成为无资料地区和资料匮乏区水文模型应用中亟需解决的棘手问题.本文基于参数的物理意义,通过自相似河网结构的假定,构建Cs与河网形态、流域下垫面特征的相关联系,提出基于河链蓄量方程的Cs估算方法,对半干旱、半湿润和湿润地区等不同水文气象分区的11个流域的Cs值进行推算并代入新安江模型中进行模拟,经比较发现,11个流域子流域Cs计算均值与新安江模型率定结果相近,说明该Cs计算方法是合理的.选取陈河、屯溪两个典型流域研究单元流域属性对Cs的影响,由结果可以看出Cs与流域面积、河链数、河宽呈正相关,与单元流域距离出口的远近呈负相关,这表明流域分块后各单元流域Cs值不一致,而新安江模型中采用相同Cs值对不同单元进行调节必然会造成汇流计算的误差.为进一步提高该方法在无资料地区的应用效果,将新安江模型汇流模块修改为每个单元使用对应的Cs计算值进行滞后演算,以陈河和屯溪流域为例采用新安江模型Cs率定值、Cs计算均值以及修改后新安江模型3种不同方案进行模拟比较,从模拟结果可以得出,修改后的模型具有明显优势,将模型参数与下垫面条件建立了联系,模型物理机制提高且参数的独立性增强,对于新安江模型在无资料地区的应用具有重要的指导意义. 相似文献
5.
本文利用全球陆面数据同化系统与降雨观测数据,以陕西半湿润区陈河流域为研究对象,驱动WRF-Hydro模型,研究该模型的表现和适用性,并在结构、参数、输入输出和模拟结果方面与新安江模型对比.考虑到次表面层与实际包气带的区别,引入土层厚度乘子ZSOILFAC对前者进行等比缩放,发现其与新安江模型反推包气带的厚度有较好的一致性.研究表明:在陈河流域中WRF-Hydro计算步长须在建议值的基础上缩小; WRF-Hydro模型善于模拟洪水细节,新安江模型表现好且稳定;前者的径流深和洪峰合格率平于或略低于后者;在两个指标均合格的洪水中,前者平均均方根误差比后者小21.5%,但对于其他洪水,前者平均均方根误差比后者大56.2%; WRF-Hydro在洪水起涨时刻模拟较好,表现出其在中小流域应用的潜力. 相似文献
6.
鄱阳湖湖泊流域系统水文水动力联合模拟 总被引：5，自引：5，他引：0
本文以鄱阳湖湖泊流域系统为研究对象,鉴于该湖泊流域系统尺度较大,下垫面自然属性呈现高度空间异质性且具有流域-平原区-湖泊不同机制的水文水动力过程,为了真实描述湖泊流域间的水文水动力联系及反映不同过程间的作用机制,构建了鄱阳湖湖泊流域联合模拟模型.该模型基于自主研发的流域分布式水文模型WATLAC和湖滨平原区产流模型以及水动力模型MIKE 21 3个不同功能子模型的连接来实现该复杂系统的模拟.模型的联合采用输入-输出驱动及子模型的顺序执行进程,即将五大子流域与平原区入湖径流量作为输入条件来驱动湖泊水动力模型,模拟湖泊水位对流域入湖径流量的响应.以2000-2005年鄱阳湖流域6个水文站点的河道径流量、流域基流指数以及湖泊4个站点的水位资料来率定模型,其中各站点日径流量拟合的纳希效率系数Ens为0.71~0.84,确定性系数R2介于0.70~0.88之间,而湖泊各站点水位拟合的纳希效率系数Ens变化为0.88~0.98,确定性系数R2为0.96~0.98,均取得令人满意的率定结果.本文提出的鄱阳湖湖泊流域系统水文水动力联合模拟模型能较为理想再现湖泊水位对流域降雨-径流过程的响应.水位模拟结果进一步表明,该联合模型能用来获取重要的水动力空间变化特征.该模型可作为有效工具定量揭示湖泊流域系统水文水动力过程对气候变化和流域人类活动的响应. 相似文献
7.
经验方法研究下垫面变化对洪水的影响 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
1980s以来,人类活动对下垫面的影响加剧,研究下垫面变化对流域产汇流规律的影响具有重要意义.通过对海河流域中紫荆关、阜平两个流域分别用经验方法进行洪水模拟演算,并把洪水资料按照年代不同分时段,建立P+Pa～Rs相关关系图,分析流域下垫面变化对降雨径流相关关系的影响.建立产流量R与洪峰Qm之间的相关关系,通过统计比较不同年代的趋势线发现,在产流量相同情况下,1980s后的洪峰流量较1980s前有所减少,说明海河流域的调蓄作用有增强的趋势.同时建立流域下垫面条件改变后产流量与洪峰变化幅度的相关关系,发现流域产流量变化与洪峰变化呈正相关关系. 相似文献
8.
引入两个负指数型差值函数,估计降雨量的概率分布,以此描述流域降雨空间变异性问题.将降雨量空间统计分布与垂向混合产流模型耦合进行产流量计算,即对地表径流,采用超渗产流模式,根据降雨与土壤下渗能力的联合分布推求其空间分布;对地面以下径流,采用蓄满产流模式,以地表渗入量的均值作为输入,进行简化处理以提高其实用性;最终推导出总产流量概率分布函数计算公式.将流域概化成一个线性水库,并根据随机微分方程理论,推导任一计算时段洪水流量的概率分布,从而构建了一个完整的随机产汇流模型.以淮河支流黄泥庄流域为例进行应用研究,结果表明,该模型可提供洪水过程的概率预报,可用于防洪风险分析,若以概率分布的期望值作为确定性预报,亦具有较高精度. 相似文献
9.
10.
鄱阳湖流域径流模型 总被引：8，自引：4，他引：4
流域径流是鄱阳湖主要来水,建立鄱阳湖流域径流模型对揭示湖泊水量平衡及其受流域自然和人类活动的影响具有重要意义.针对鄱阳湖-流域系统的特点:流域面积大(16.22×104km2)、多条入湖河流、湖滨区坡面入湖径流等,研究了相应的模拟方法,建立了考虑流域土壤属性和土地利用空间变化的鄱阳湖流域分布式径流模型.采用6个水文站1991-2001年的实测河道径流对模型进行了率定和验证.结果显示,模型整体模拟精度较高.其中,赣江、信江和饶河均取得了较好的模拟结果,月效率系数为0.82-0.95;抚河和修水模拟精度略低,为0.65-0.78.模型揭示了研究时段内年平均入湖径流总量为1623×108m3,其中,赣江最多,占47%,其次为信江和抚河,分别占13%和12%,湖滨区坡面入湖径流约占4%,其余24%来自饶河、修水以及其它入湖支流.模型将用于评估流域下垫面或气候变化引起的入湖水量变化,为湖泊水量平衡计算提供依据. 相似文献
11.
Elliot M. Schneiderman Tammo S. Steenhuis Dominique J. Thongs Zachary M. Easton Mark S. Zion Andrew L. Neal Guillermo F. Mendoza M. Todd Walter 《水文研究》2007,21(25):3420-3430
Many water quality models use some form of the curve number (CN) equation developed by the Soil Conservation Service (SCS; U.S. Depart of Agriculture) to predict storm runoff from watersheds based on an infiltration-excess response to rainfall. However, in humid, well-vegetated areas with shallow soils, such as in the northeastern USA, the predominant runoff generating mechanism is saturation-excess on variable source areas (VSAs). We reconceptualized the SCS–CN equation for VSAs, and incorporated it into the General Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) model. The new version of GWLF, named the Variable Source Loading Function (VSLF) model, simulates the watershed runoff response to rainfall using the standard SCS–CN equation, but spatially distributes the runoff response according to a soil wetness index. We spatially validated VSLF runoff predictions and compared VSLF to GWLF for a subwatershed of the New York City Water Supply System. The spatial distribution of runoff from VSLF is more physically realistic than the estimates from GWLF. This has important consequences for water quality modeling, and for the use of models to evaluate and guide watershed management, because correctly predicting the coincidence of runoff generation and pollutant sources is critical to simulating non-point source (NPS) pollution transported by runoff. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
Colin D. Bell Jordyn M. Wolfand Chelsea L. Panos Aditi S. Bhaskar Ryan L. Gilliom Terri S. Hogue Kristina G. Hopkins Anne J. Jefferson 《水文研究》2020,34(14):3134-3152
Decades of research has concluded that the percent of impervious surface cover in a watershed is strongly linked to negative impacts on urban stream health. Recently, there has been a push by municipalities to offset these effects by installing structural stormwater control measures (SCMs), which are landscape features designed to retain and reduce runoff to mitigate the effects of urbanisation on event hydrology. The goal of this study is to build generalisable relationships between the level of SCM implementation in urban watersheds and resulting changes to hydrology. A literature review of 185 peer-reviewed studies of watershed-scale SCM implementation across the globe was used to identify 52 modelling studies suitable for a meta-analysis to build statistical relationships between SCM implementation and hydrologic change. Hydrologic change is quantified as the percent reduction in storm event runoff volume and peak flow between a watershed with SCMs relative to a (near) identical control watershed without SCMs. Results show that for each additional 1% of SCM-mitigated impervious area in a watershed, there is an additional 0.43% reduction in runoff and a 0.60% reduction in peak flow. Values of SCM implementation required to produce a change in water quantity metrics were identified at varying levels of probability. For example, there is a 90% probability (high confidence) of at least a 1% reduction in peak flow with mitigation of 33% of impervious surfaces. However, as the reduction target increases or mitigated impervious surface decreases, the probability of reaching the reduction target also decreases. These relationships can be used by managers to plan SCM implementation at the watershed scale. 相似文献
13.
Green stormwater infrastructure implementation in urban watersheds has outpaced our understanding of practice effectiveness on streamflow response to precipitation events. Long-term monitoring of experimental suburban watersheds in Clarksburg, Maryland, USA, provided an opportunity to examine changes in event-based streamflow metrics in two treatment watersheds that transitioned from agriculture to suburban development with a high density of infiltration-focused stormwater control measures (SCMs). Urban Treatment 1 has predominantly single family detached housing with 33% impervious cover and 126 SCMs. Urban Treatment 2 has a mix of single family detached and attached housing with 44% impervious cover and 219 SCMs. Differences in streamflow-event magnitude and timing were assessed using a before-after-control-reference-impact design to compare urban treatment watersheds with a forested control and an urban control with detention-focused SCMs. Streamflow and precipitation events were identified from 14 years of sub-daily monitoring data with an automated approach to characterize peak streamflow, runoff yield, runoff ratio, streamflow duration, time to peak, rise rate, and precipitation depth for each event. Results indicated that streamflow magnitude and timing were altered by urbanization in the urban treatment watersheds, even with SCMs treating 100% of the impervious area. The largest hydrologic changes were observed in streamflow magnitude metrics, with greater hydrologic change in Urban Treatment 2 compared with Urban Treatment 1. Although streamflow changes were observed in both urban treatment watersheds, SCMs were able to mitigate peak flows and runoff volumes compared with the urban control. The urban control had similar impervious cover to Urban Treatment 2, but Urban Treatment 2 had more than twice the precipitation depth needed to initiate a flow response and lower median peak flow and runoff yield for events less than 20 mm. Differences in impervious cover between the Urban Treatment watersheds appeared to be a large driver of differences in streamflow response, rather than SCM density. Overall, use of infiltration-focused SCMs implemented at a watershed-scale did provide enhanced attenuation of peak flow and runoff volumes compared to centralized-detention SCMs. 相似文献
14.
Evaluation of four hydrological models for operational flood forecasting in a Canadian Prairie watershed 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
The complexities of the Prairie watersheds, including potholes, drainage interconnectivities, changing land-use patterns, dynamic watershed boundaries and hydro-meteorological factors, have made hydrological modelling on Prairie watersheds one of the most complex task for hydrologists and operational hydrological forecasters. In this study, four hydrological models (WATFLOOD, HBV-EC, HSPF and HEC-HMS) were developed, calibrated and tested for their efficiency and accuracy to be used as operational flood forecasting tools. The Upper Assiniboine River, which flows into the Shellmouth Reservoir, Canada, was selected for the analysis. The performance of the models was evaluated by the standard statistical methods: the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, correlation coefficient, root mean squared error, mean absolute relative error and deviation of runoff volumes. The models were evaluated on their accuracy in simulating the observed runoff for calibration and verification periods (2005–2015 and 1994–2004, respectively) and also their use in operational forecasting of the 2016 and 2017 runoff. 相似文献
15.
Kishor Panjabi Pradeep Goel Prasad Daggupati Narayan Kumar Shrestha Rituraj Shukla 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(13):2224-2232
ABSTRACT In humid regions, surface runoff is often generated by saturation-excess runoff mechanisms from relatively small variable source areas (VSAs). However, the majority of the current hydrologic models are based on infiltration-excess mechanisms. In this study, the AGricultural Non-Point Source Pollution (AGNPS) model was used to integrate the VSA concept using topographic wetness index (TWI). Both the original and AGNPS-VSA models were evaluated for a small agricultural field in Ontario, Canada. The results indicate that the AGNPS-VSA model performed better than original model. The AGNPS-VSA model predicted that only the saturated portion of the field with higher TWI values produced runoff, whereas the original AGNPS model showed uniform hydrologic response from the entire field. The results of this study are important for accurately mapping the locations of VSAs. This new model could be a powerful tool in identifying critical source areas for applying targeted best management practices to minimize pollutant loads to receiving waters. 相似文献
16.
A number of watershed‐scale hydrological models include Richards' equation (RE) solutions, but the literature is sparse on information as to the appropriate application of RE at the watershed scale. In most published applications of RE in distributed watershed‐scale hydrological modelling, coarse vertical resolutions are used to decrease the computational burden. Compared to point‐ or field‐scale studies, application at the watershed scale is complicated by diverse runoff production mechanisms, groundwater effects on runoff production, runon phenomena and heterogeneous watershed characteristics. An essential element of the numerical solution of RE is that the solution converges as the spatial resolution increases. Spatial convergence studies can be used to identify the proper resolution that accurately describes the solution with maximum computational efficiency, when using physically realistic parameter values. In this study, spatial convergence studies are conducted using the two‐dimensional, distributed‐parameter, gridded surface subsurface hydrological analysis (GSSHA) model, which solves RE to simulate vadose zone fluxes. Tests to determine if the required discretization is strongly a function of dominant runoff production mechanism are conducted using data from two very different watersheds, the Hortonian Goodwin Creek Experimental Watershed and the non‐Hortonian Muddy Brook watershed. Total infiltration, stream flow and evapotranspiration for the entire simulation period are used to compute comparison statistics. The influences of upper and lower boundary conditions on the solution accuracy are also explored. Results indicate that to simulate hydrological fluxes accurately at both watersheds small vertical cell sizes, of the order of 1 cm, are required near the soil surface, but not throughout the soil column. The appropriate choice of approximations for calculating the near soil‐surface unsaturated hydraulic conductivity can yield modest increases in the required cell size. Results for both watersheds are quite similar, even though the soils and runoff production mechanisms differ greatly between the two catchments. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
Vegetation dynamics and hydrological processes are major components of terrestrial ecosystems, and they interact strongly with each other. Studies of hydrological responses to vegetation dynamics are usually conducted on a long-term scale, whereas the hydrological responses within a single year have rarely been studied. In the present study, Poyang Lake runoff (PYL-R) model, a new hydrological model coupled with leaf area index (LAI) remote sensing products, was established and applied to simulate the runoff process in the Poyang Lake Watershed. The simulation results obtained in three sub-watersheds of the Poyang Lake Watershed (Ganjiang Watershed, Xinjiang Watershed, and Fuhe Watershed) agreed well with the observations (Nash efficiency coefficient values and R values exceeded 0.6 and 0.9, respectively). The PYL-R experiment (PYL-R-E) model was designed as a contrast model without considering the impact of LAI. The simulated monthly runoff results obtained using the PYL-R and PYL-R-E models were compared, and the within-year changes in the differences between the two results were analysed to evaluate and quantify the impact of vegetation dynamic on runoff. From January to July, when LAI values increased by around 2.6 m2 m−2, monthly runoff depth differences between PYL-R and PYL-R-E results increased by 35.25, 27.98, and 29.14 mm in the Ganjiang, Xinjiang, and Fuhe watersheds, respectively. Dense vegetation caused high interception and evapotranspiration during summer, which largely reduced runoff. By contrast, during winter, the effect of vegetation was weaker on runoff process whereas the impacts of other factors (e.g., precipitation) were higher. The sensitivity of monthly runoff to vegetation dynamics varied greatly throughout the whole year. In particular, during August and September, the LAI-caused runoff changes were very high, accounting for 28–42% of monthly runoff in the sub-watersheds. Our findings clarify the effects of changes in vegetation on hydrological processes over short time scales, thereby providing insights into the effects of scale on eco-hydrological processes. 相似文献
18.
空间集总式水文模型的洪水预报精度会受到面平均雨量估计误差的严重影响.点雨量监测值的误差类型、误差大小以及流域的雨量站点密度和站点的空间分布都会影响到面平均雨量的计算.为提高实时洪水预报精度,本文提出了一种基于降雨系统响应曲线洪水预报误差修正方法.通过此方法估计降雨输入项的误差,从而提高洪水预报精度.此方法将水文模型做为输入和输出之间的响应系统,用实测流量和计算流量之间的差值做为信息,通过降雨系统响应曲线,使用最小二乘估计原理,对面平均雨量进行修正,再用修正后的面平均雨量重新计算出流过程.将此修正方法结合新安江模型使用理想案例进行检验,并应用于王家坝流域的16场历史洪水以及此流域不同雨量站密度的情况下,结果证明均有明显修正效果,且在雨量站密度较低时修正效果更加明显.该方法是一种结构简单且不增加模型参数和复杂度的实时洪水修正的新方法. 相似文献