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作为强震长期预测基础的地震带、潜在震源区的划分,仍然依据地震构造类比和地震活动重复两原则。现有的强震长期预测方法在构造“稳定”区,即没有活动构造、没有历史地震(包括古地震)资料的条件下,无能为力。通过张北地震资料的分析,高精度地震定位并结合波形数据反演震源机制的结果表明：在稳定而统一的构造应力场的作用下,沿其最大剪切应力方向上的小地震集中成带,并且持续活动、震源机制的优势取向与应力场吻合,小震带便可以看作属于现今活动的震源断层,在地震长期预测工作中可以作为划分潜在震源区的依据。构造“稳定”区发生的强震属于新破裂。 相似文献
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综合地质构造、岩体力学性质、应力应变状态及其演化历史等各种因素将其统归为应变能积累特征对强震活动进行研究。对利用形变空间特征变化判断强震震源区位置的方法进行了讨论并确认其可行性,提出估算块体应变能的方法。由新构造划分块体边界、地壳测深确定底面进而确定块体体积、形变测量确定年平均应变速率、地壳速度构造确定弹性常数、历史强震确定能量积累起点(起始时间),由此估算块体积累总应变能,进而依据能量估算地震震级。最后以实例论述应变能积累特点对强震位置和震级预测的良好效果以及对地震安全性评价的重要意义。 相似文献
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根据以往研究的地震孕育和发生的３个模式提出了地震成因的综合模式、地震前兆指标和预报方法。综合模式由７个单元组成：震源、震源端部的２个调整单元、震源顶部和底部的２个软弱层（这些单元均位于上岩石圈）以及下岩石圈的两个深部剪切蠕滑断层（一个与震源断层面垂直立交，另一个与震源断层面同面立接）。这７个单元组成了导致强震后果的结构。在构造力源作用下每一个单元围绕震源运动。最终使震源区破裂和发生强震。根据这个模式各种地震前兆异常区的演化与模式中震源与其它各个单元之间的差异性有关，与调整单元、调整层、深部剪切蠕滑断层之间的差异性有关。这种差异性使不同时间或同一时段多个异常区、带边界的交汇点或连接区预示未来强震位置。在孕震后期，震源系统某些单元之间的相互作用增强，并形成正反馈，前兆异常随时间的变化出现起伏加剧。根据总结，强震大多发生在第３次起伏加剧的峰值处和峰值后并得到Ｍ＝４．２９＋０．１１ｔ式中ｔ为起伏加剧的异常时间，以月为单位。由上述指标可以作出强震的中短期预报。在文章最后我们以唐山地震为例展示了综合模式在地震预报中的应用 相似文献
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强震震源周围地电、水化学、水动态、地应力和地形变等５种前兆短临异常 时空演化取决于主要活动构造和强震发震机制;远场异常时空演化与主要活构造有 关,不同活构造上异常时间演化有差异性;在特定年份１ａ尺度地电阻率异常显示异 常高潮期,Ms≥５．０地震能量达到１次以上Ｍｓ７．０强震能量的年份与异常高潮期 同步或滞后１ａ,二者与地球自转加速年份基本对应。根据两方面的研究结果进行了 实际预测检验,在预测区间和预测时间段（０．５ａ或１ａ）内发生强震、中强震１０次,其 中７次地震地点基本准确,３次地震地点较为准确。 相似文献
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本文利用山西地区的地震地质、地质构造、地震活动性、地球物理场等特征资料,对有关特征进行了图象识别,采用综合决策方案以提高识别的稳定性。综合判定结果分析表明,在研究区内的180个对象中,得到54个D类对象,占全部识别总面积的30％,其中向31个对象,历史上已发生过6级以上强震或在强震附近,另有23个对象为新判定的6级以上强震潜在震源区。得到山西强震潜在震源的预测图。 相似文献
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对中国大陆５．０级以上强震的后续地震进行了分析,按成因将其划分为剩余型、诱导型和后生型３类。讨论了３种后续地震的主要特征及其在大震震源机理研究和地震预报中的意义。 相似文献
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A. V. Guglielmi L. E. Sobisevich A. L. Sobisevich I. P. Lavrov 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2014,50(4):501-507
The specific enhancement of ultra-low-frequency (ULF) electromagnetic oscillations a few hours prior to the strong earthquakes, which was previously mentioned in the literature, motivated us to search for the distinctive features of the mechanical (foreshock) activity of the Earth’s crust in the epicentral zones of the future earthquakes. Activation of the foreshocks three hours before the main shock is revealed, which is roughly similar to the enhancement of the specific electromagnetic ULF emission. It is hypothesized that the round-the-world seismic echo signals from the earthquakes, which form the peak of energy release 2 h 50 min before the main events, act as the triggers of the main shocks due to the cumulative action of the surface waves converging to the epicenter. It is established that the frequency of the fluctuations in the foreshock activity decreases at the final stages of the preparation of the main shocks, which probably testifies to the so-called mode softening at the approach of the failure point according to the catastrophe theory. 相似文献
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In this paper, the method presented by Lee and Trifunac (1985) for generating synthetic torsional accelerograms has been extended to the estimation of synthetic rocking accelerograms and of their response spectra. Results from our previous regression analyses for the characterization of strong shaking in terms of (1) earthquake magnitude and epicentral distance, or (2) Modified Mercalli Intensity at the site are utilized here again. The effects of geologic environment, in terms of site parameters or the representative depth of sediments, which influence amplification, and the dispersive properties of ground motion are also included. The synthetic rocking accelerogram is then constructed from the horizontal and vertical acceleration components. 相似文献
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IntroductionThe earthquake sequences can be divided as the type of isolation (single shock), mainaftershocks and swarm of earthquake (multi-shocks) (Institute of Geophysics of CAS, 1976; Li,1981; Wu, et al, 1990). Based on the research of earthquake sequence, combined with modernobservation technique and the wide band strong (main) shock records of CDSN, this paper willdetermine the properties of hypocenter and seek the internal relation between the type of earthquake sequence and the hypo… 相似文献
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The Italian strong motion network 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Antonella Gorini Mario Nicoletti Paolo Marsan Riccardo Bianconi Rita De Nardis Luisa Filippi Sandro Marcucci Franco Palma Elisa Zambonelli 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2010,8(5):1075-1090
The Italian Strong Motion Network is a permanent monitoring system run by the Italian national emergency management department
(Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, DPC). The network is known as RAN (Rete Accelerometrica Nazionale). An extensive project
for updating and improving the technology of RAN instruments as well as the number of recording points was performed in the
last 10 years. A wide site selection survey was carried out from eastern Sicily along the Italian peninsula, covering high
seismic risk areas. The recording station density and the choice of high-quality digital strong motion instruments ensure
reliability of the RAN network in the long-term. At the end of 2008, the free field sites selection and instruments installation,
planned in the project, were quite completed. In planning and drawing the new RAN, special attention has been devoted to the
robustness of the transmission systems, and to the distribution of new stations in order to ensure plenty of data during a
seismic emergency. We spent special care both in the estimation of the RAN site responses and in the diffusion of the strong
motion data. In order to better identify damaged earthquake areas, improved ground motion parameters need to be set. Such
parameters will also assist future progress for engineering seismic design techniques as well as disaster mitigation. 相似文献
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Introduction A M=8 earthquake occurred in the intracontinental Linfen basin on September 17, 1303. This is the Hongtong M=8 earthquake in Shanxi Province. It is the first recorded M = 8 earthquake since the Chinese historical seismic records had started. The earthquake killed 200 000 people (LI, 1960; XIE, CAI, 1983). The year 2003 is the 700th anniversary of the earthquake occurrence. In memory of the people died in the earthquake, for further improving earthquake prevention and disas… 相似文献
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F. Heuze R. Archuleta F. Bonilla S. Day M. Doroudian A. Elgamal S. Gonzales M. Hoehler T. Lai D. Lavallee B. Lawrence P. -C. Liu A. Martin L. Matesic B. Minster R. Mellors D. Oglesby S. Park M. Riemer J. Steidl F. Vernon M. Vucetic J. Wagoner Z. Yang 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2004,24(3):199-223
The Campus Earthquake Program (CEP) of the University of California (UC) started in March 1996, and involved a partnership among seven campuses of the UC—Berkeley, Davis, Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz—and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The aim of the CEP was to provide University campuses with site-specific assessments of their earthquake strong motion exposure, to complement estimates they obtain from consultants according to the state-of-the-practice (SOP), i.e. Building Codes (UBC 97, IBC 2000), and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). The Building Codes are highly simplified tools, while the more sophisticated PSHA is still somewhat generic in its approach because it usually draws from many earthquakes not necessarily related to the faults threatening the site under study.Between 1996 and 2001, the site-specific studies focused on three campuses: Riverside, San Diego, and Santa Barbara. Each campus selected 1–3 sites to demonstrate the methods and procedures used by the CEP: Rivera Library and Parking Lots (PL) 13 and 16 at UCR, Thornton Hospital, the Cancer Center, and PL 601 at UCSD, and Engineering I building at UCSB. The project provided an estimate of strong ground motions at each selected site, for selected earthquake scenarios. These estimates were obtained by using an integrated geological, seismological, geophysical, and geotechnical approach, that brings together the capabilities of campus and laboratory personnel. Most of the site-specific results are also applicable to risk evaluation of other sites on the respective campuses.The CEP studies have provided a critical assessment of whether existing campus seismic design bases are appropriate. Generally speaking, the current assumptions are not acknowledging the severity of the majority of expected motions. Eventually, both the results from the SOP and from the CEP should be analyzed, to arrive at decisions concerning the design-basis for buildings on UC campuses. 相似文献
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A method for generating synthetic strong motion accelerograms for use in engineering design is presented. This method utilizes the model proposed by Trifunac in 197127 in conjunction with the recent empirical scaling functions for characterization of amplitudes and duration of strong shaking in terms of (i) earthquake magnitude, M, and epicentral distance, R, or (ii) Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) at the recording station. The method also enables one to consider the desired levels of confidence that the synthetic motion will not be exceeded, direction of ground motion (horizontal or vertical) and the dispersive properties of geologic environment beneath and surrounding the station. The principal features of this approach are that the resulting accelerograms have non-stationary frequency and amplitude characteristics which are in full agreement with known principles of wave propagation through a stratified medium, and that the Fourier amplitudes and the frequency-dependent duration are scaled in accordance with known trends as in recorded accelerograms. 相似文献
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A review of some of the available methods to study the effects of site conditions on strong ground motion is presented. The need of unified treatment of source, path and side effects in the assessment of seismic risk is pointed out. 相似文献
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The search for the magnetic precursors of earthquakes by the method of synchronous detection is described. The data of the
Guam Observatory (13.6°N, 144.9°E) located in a seismically active region and the USGS/NEIC catalogue of the National Earthquake
Information Center of the U.S. Geological Survey for the period from 1991 to 2009 are used. Earthquakes with magnitudes M ≥ 7 in the range of longitudes from 100° to 170°E are analyzed. The intervals of accumulation cover 40 hours before and 40
hours after an earthquake. The preliminary result reveals an enhancement of fluctuations in the Z-component within 12 hours before the earthquake. 相似文献
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强震动记录数据格式研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
强震动记录数据是构建震害防御体系的重要数据基础,又是应急救援体系的重要参数指标。当今互联网技术及数据库技术的飞速发展,对数据共享及数据应用提供了必要条件,掌握多种强震动记数据格式是上述工作的良好基础。本文着重研究国内外5种主流的强震动记录数据格式(美国USGS格式、日本K-NET格式、美国PEER格式、土耳其格式、中国UA格式),针对目前地震应急需求,提出中国强震动记录数据格式发展建议。 相似文献