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1.
本文利用资料分析和数值模拟方法研究了欧亚地区夏季大气环流的相关性及其与亚洲夏季风的关联信号,以期为欧亚地区的气候变异及可预测性研究提供科学依据.结果表明:欧亚区域同期(JJA)500 hPa高度场年际变化的关键区包括热带区、中纬度的贝加尔湖和巴尔喀什湖之间以及欧洲地中海附近地区;表面气温的关键区主要位于热带海洋;海平面气压的关键区包括热带的海洋性大陆区域、印度洋和非洲大陆赤道附近部分区域、中高纬的贝加尔湖与巴尔喀什湖之间的地区.另外,夏季大气环流年际变化的春季关键区明显西移/南退,特别是表面气温(其西太平洋区不再是关键区).公用气候系统模式CCSM4.0的大气模式在给定海温年际变化的情况下对于上述大气环流相关场及其关键区的模拟基本合理,其中500 hPa高度场的模拟结果较好,海平面气压场的结果逊之;对于同期和前期的结果,模式都有夸大西太平洋海温影响的倾向.对于东亚夏季风指数与大气环流的同期年际变化信号而言,其空间分布基本表现为以30°N为界呈西南东北向的波列状分布;其春季前期信号中,30°N以南的显著区几乎都位于海洋,30°N以北主要位于欧洲、巴尔喀什湖与贝加尔湖之间的地区.南亚夏季风指数的前期显著相关区比同期明显西移/南退.总之,模式的模拟结果和观测结果相当吻合,但其同期模拟结果比前期的更好一些.这些结果说明:模式对于大气环流年际变化的耦合变化信息的刻画是基本合理的,这为利用气候模式进行有关可预测性研究和降尺度预测研究奠定了基础. 相似文献
2.
通过对挪威卑尔根全球大气-海洋-海冰耦合模式300a控制积分结果进行交叉子波分析,揭示了东亚夏季风（EASM）与同期Nio3区（90°W～150°W,5°S～5°N）海洋表面温度异常的相关关系在长期变化中是不稳定的,呈现出明显的阶段性特征.气候要素场在二者联系的紧密（HCP）和微弱（LCP）时期差别显著,在HCP时期,西北太平洋对流层低层出现一对耦合的异常气旋和反气旋性环流系统;东南亚地区对流层低层表现为强东风异常,风速的年际变率加大;热带西太平洋对流层温度和位势高度场的年际变率普遍加强.此外,中国夏季降水与同期Nio3区海洋表面温度异常的相关关系在上述两种时期也存在较大差别. 相似文献
3.
应用日本东京大学气候系统研究中心(CCSR)发展起来的一个全球大气环流谱模式(T42L200版本),对l998年夏季气候异常和大气环流的预测问题进行了研究,定量地检查了该模式对夏季降水和大气环流异常的预测准确度.说明该模式对1998年的预测水平是比较高的;并证实大气环流在春季的初始异常对北半球夏季大气环流和降水异常起了很重要的作用,而对南半球的作用则小得多.就中国长江流域1998年的降水异常而言,初始环流的作用约占50%. 相似文献
4.
一个基于耦合气候系统模式的气候预测系统的研制 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于美国通用气候系统模式CCSM4和自行设计的一套初始化方案,建立了一个全球气候预测系统(PCCSM4),并使用该预测系统对夏季气候进行了30年(1981~2010)系统性的超前一个月的集合回报试验.回报结果表明,PCCSM4基本可以把握观测中夏季(JJA)平均海表面温度(SST)、海平面气压(SLP)和降水的主要分布特征;PCCSM4对SST,尤其是赤道中东太平洋关键区SST具有较高的回报能力,30年的相关系数最高可达0.7;PCCSM4对500 hPa位势高度场、850hPa纬向风场和海平面气压场的回报性能高于降水;总的来看,热带地区的可预测性高于全球,更高于东亚地区;PCCSM4对于典型ENSO年的夏季气候和亚洲夏季风的年际变化具有较好的回报能力,经过进一步的检验和完善可以应用于全球和我国短期气候预测业务. 相似文献
5.
利用美国国家环境预报中心和美国国家大气科学研究中 心（NCEP/NCAR）再分析月平均气候资料以及Xie和Arkin分析的月平均降水资料（1968～199 8年），针对索马里低空急流（SMJ）的年际变化及其对东亚夏季降水的影响问题展开了分析 研究. 结果揭示，SMJ作为最主要的越赤道气流，对两个半球间水汽输送起最关键的作用， 它把水汽从冬半球输送到夏半球. 夏季SMJ的年际变化有全球范围内的环流异常与之相联系 ，特别是东亚沿岸的波列状异常分布、南亚高压以及澳大利亚以南的偶极型异常分布；它 也同春季的北印度洋等海区的海温异常有密切关系. 研究还表明，春季SMJ的年际变化对东 亚夏季降水和大气环流有显著影响，由于SMJ影响的超前性，因此它在东亚夏季气候预测上 有重要意义. 相似文献
6.
利用我国160站降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了前冬北太平洋涛动（NPO）在20世纪70年代中期发生年代际突变前后与淮河流域夏季降水的联系.研究发现两者之间的对应关系具有明显的年代际变化.20世纪70年代中期以前,前冬NPO与淮河流域夏季降水为显著的负相关,之后这种关系明显减弱.本文进一步探讨了20世纪70年代中期突变前后与前冬NPO异常相联系的大气环流场的变化.结果表明,在年代际突变前,当前冬NPO偏强（弱）时,夏季西太平洋对流层低层为异常气旋（反气旋）型环流控制,淮河流域上空大气异常下沉（上升）,同时向淮河流域的水汽输送减弱（加强）,这些条件不（有）利于淮河流域降水的发生,淮河流域夏季降水因而偏少（多）.在年代际突变后,前冬NPO异常对后期夏季与淮河流域降水相关联的大气环流系统的影响变得不明显,从而减弱前冬NPO与夏季淮河流域降水的联系. 相似文献
7.
利用最新一代气候模式结果对政府间气候变化委员会0PCC）SRESA1B情景（中等排放情景）下的东亚夏季降水和季风环流未来演变特征进行了预测．结果表明,东亚地区的降水在未来将会增加,在21世纪40年代末（2040s年代末）出现阶段性变化,在此之前降水的增加量较小（～1％）,并有较明显的振荡特征,而在2040s年代末之后降水明显增加（～9％）,中国东部地区进入全面的多雨期．这种变化以华北最为明显,华南和长江中下游地区次之．而气候模式对未来中国东部夏季降水型预测的EOF分析表明,未来百年中国东部的雨型将以多雨型为主,相应的时间系数在2040s年代末后进入正位相的高值期,而其它降水型的方差贡献较小,无明显变化趋势．相应,未来东亚地区的夏季风环流将会加强,在低层这主要是由于西北太平洋地区的副热带反气旋西北侧西南气流加强的结果;而在高层主要是由于南亚上空异常反气旋东侧东北气流加强的结果．这一季风环流的加强在中国东部也呈现出阶段性的变化特征,在2040s年代末之后东亚夏季风得到全面加强．同时,未来东亚大气中的水汽含量将会逐渐增加,进入中国东部地区的西南水汽输送在2040s年代末也出现阶段性的增强．这说明,在全球气候变化的背景下,东亚地区的水循环和环流场对全球变暖的响应基本一致,即降水和水汽的增加对应着季风环流的加强,降水的变化是气候变暖条件下动力和热力学因子共同作用的结果． 相似文献
8.
利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟实验室研发的全球海洋－大气－陆面过程气候系统耦合模式（IAP/LASG GOALS 40），对比分析了考虑和不考虑气候的外强迫因子（太阳活动、温室气体及硫酸盐气溶胶）变化对2003年夏季中国区域的短期气候预测的影响.结果发现，由于外强迫因子变化的影响，模式模拟的中国区域2003年夏季降水距平的分布比不考虑这种变化时更接近实况，它有效地改善了无外强迫变化时模式模拟预测的中国区域降水不真实偏大的缺点，使一些地区的模拟降水量值减小，范围扩大，位置北抬.更重要的是，由于考虑了外强迫的变化，GOALS耦合模式很好地模拟出了2003年夏季淮河流域较大的降水正距平区，同时相应的500 hPa环流场的模拟也有较大的改进. 相似文献
9.
10.
观测事实揭示出春季Hadley环流与夏季西北太平洋热带气旋频数之间存在显著的负相关关系.由春季Hadley环流异常引起的西北太平洋地区夏季纬向风垂直切变、大气辐合辐散等的异常变化是这一关系存在的内在原因.本文通过数值试验对这一关系的真实性进行了验证,即利用中国科学院大气物理研究所发展的9层大气环流模式（IAP9L-AGCM）模拟了春季Hadley环流异常偏强情景,并分析了该情景下影响西北太平洋热带气旋生成的环境场的响应.结果表明,在春季Hadley环流偏强情景下,夏季西北太平洋地区纬向风垂直切变幅度加大,低空大气异常辐散,高空大气异常辐合,东亚夏季风减弱,这种环流背景不利于热带气旋生成和发展,因此,西北太平洋热带气旋频数异常偏少.数值模拟结果与已有的诊断结果相吻合,进而证实了春季Hadley环流与夏季西北太平洋热带气旋频数负相关关系的存在.因此,春季Hadley环流信号可以用于西北太平洋热带气旋活动的气候预测. 相似文献
11.
Moisture budget variations in the Yangtze River Basin, China, and possible associations with large-scale circulation 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Zengxin Zhang Hui Tao Qiang Zhang Jinchi Zhang Nicola Forher Georg Hörmann 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(5):579-589
We analyzed seasonal and annual variations of the whole layer atmospheric moisture budget and precipitation during 1961–2005
and their associations with large-scale circulation in the Yangtze River basin, China. The results indicated increasing moisture
budget in summer and winter, but decreasing moisture budget in spring and autumn. Positive correlations between moisture budget
and precipitation illustrate tremendous impacts the moisture budget has on the precipitation changes across the Yangtze River
basin. In terms of seasonal variations, significant correlations were observed between precipitation and moisture budget in
spring and autumn in the upper Yangtze River basin. Besides, we also analyzed changes of geopotential height. The positive
trends of the geopotential height (850 hPa) were observed in the East Asia and the negative trends in the middle and west
Pacific Ocean, indicating increasing geopotential height from south to north in east Asia which largely limited the moisture
propagation to north China. While decreasing meridional geopotential height from west to east along the Yangtze River basin
caused more moisture propagation from the west to the east parts of the study region, which may benefit more precipitation
in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin. 相似文献
12.
Design and testing of a global climate prediction system based on a coupled climate model 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
A global climate prediction system(PCCSM4) was developed based on the Community Climate System Model, version 4.0, developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCAR), and an initialization scheme was designed by our group. Thirty-year(1981–2010) one-month-lead retrospective summer climate ensemble predictions were carried out and analyzed. The results showed that PCCSM4 can efficiently capture the main characteristics of JJA mean sea surface temperature(SST), sea level pressure(SLP), and precipitation. The prediction skill for SST is high, especially over the central and eastern Pacific where the influence of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is dominant. Temporal correlation coefficients between the predicted Ni?o3.4 index and observed Ni?o3.4 index over the 30 years reach 0.7, exceeding the 99% statistical significance level. The prediction of 500-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa zonal wind and SLP shows greater skill than for precipitation. Overall, the predictability in PCCSM4 is much higher in the tropics than in global terms, or over East Asia. Furthermore, PCCSM4 can simulate the summer climate in typical ENSO years and the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon well. These preliminary results suggest that PCCSM4 can be applied to real-time prediction after further testing and improvement. 相似文献
13.
ABSTRACT Precipitation prediction is central in hydrology and water resources planning and management. This paper introduces a semi-empirical predictive model to predict monthly precipitation and compares its predictive skill with those of machine learning (ML) methods. The stochastic method presented herein estimates monthly precipitation with one-step-ahead prediction properties. The ML predictive skill of the algorithms is evaluated by predicting monthly precipitation relying on the statistical association between precipitation and environmental and topographic factors. The semi-empirical predictive model features non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) for investigating the influence of multiple predictor variables on precipitation. The semi-empirical predictive model’s parameters are optimized with the hybrid genetic algorithm (GA) and Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm (LM), or GALMA, yielding a validated model with high predictive skill. The methodologies are illustrated with data from Hubei Province, China, which comprise 27 meteorological station datasets from 1988–2017. The empirical results provide valuable insights for developing semi-empirical rainfall prediction models. 相似文献
14.
A. P. Dimri 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2006,163(8):1679-1698
Surface and upper air circulation features associated with extreme precipitation years are demonstrated during winter season
viz., December, January, February and March (DJFM) to examine winter weather affecting the western Himalayas. These circulations
are studied over the domain 15°S–45°N and 30°E–120°E. This domain is considered particularly to illustrate the distribution
of precipitation due to a wintertime eastward moving synoptic weather system called western disturbances. Surplus and deficient
years of seasonal (DJFM) precipitation are identified using ± 20% departure from mean from uninitialized daily reanalysis
data of forty (1958–1997) years of the National Center For Environmental Prediction (NCEP), US. The years 1965–1969, 1973
and 1991 are found to be surplus years and the years 1962, 1963, 1971, 1977, and 1985 are found to be deficient years. Comparative
study between composites of these two categories is made using students t-test of significance. Significant differences in
sea-level pressure, zonal and meridional component of wind at surface and upper levels, total precipitable water content,
geopotential height and temperature are observed in the two contrasting seasons. 相似文献
15.
XianMei Lang 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2008,51(5):709-720
It is of great social and scientific importance and also very difficult to make reliable prediction for dust weather frequency (DWF) in North China. In this paper, the correlation between spring DWF in Beijing and Tianjin observation stations, taken as examples in North China, and seasonally averaged surface air temperature, precipitation, Arctic Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation, South Oscillation, near surface meridional wind and Eurasian westerly index is respectively calculated so as to construct a prediction model for spring DWF in North China by using these climatic factors. Two prediction models, i.e. model-I and model-II, are then set up respectively based on observed climate data and the 32-year (1970 -2001) extra-seasonal hindcast experiment data as reproduced by the nine-level Atmospheric General Circulation Model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP9L-AGCM). It is indicated that the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted DWF reaches 0.933 in the model-I, suggesting a high prediction skill one season ahead. The corresponding value is high up to 0.948 for the subsequent model-II, which involves synchronous spring climate data reproduced by the IAP9L-AGCM relative to the model-I. The model-II can not only make more precise prediction but also can bring forward the lead time of real-time prediction from the model-I’s one season to half year. At last, the real-time predictability of the two models is evaluated. It follows that both the models display high prediction skill for both the interannual variation and linear trend of spring DWF in North China, and each is also featured by different advantages. As for the model-II, the prediction skill is much higher than that of original approach by use of the IAP9L-AGCM alone. Therefore, the prediction idea put forward here should be popularized in other regions in China where dust weather occurs frequently. 相似文献
16.
本文运用近50 a来500 hPa层次上南极、赤道和北极位势高度以及南北半球西风指数的资料，分析了它们的时间演变规律及其相互间的关系.结果表明，南极位势高度显著下降；赤道位势高度显著上升.南极、赤道和北极位势高度都存在着显著的年际、年代际变化特征.总体上，南极位势高度与赤道位势高度有极其显著的负相关关系，北极与赤道的位势高度之间以及两极位势高度之间相关关系不显著；在共振的特定频率中，北极位势高度振荡落后于南极位势高度，赤道位势高度振荡又落后于两极位势高度振荡，气候变化最先开始的区域为南极地区.进一步分析表明,伴随着以上三个区域的位势高度趋势变化及其周期振荡，必然引起高空西风的增强与周期振荡.研究表明，南北两半球西风指数都存在显著的上升趋势，且存在显著的年代际变化特征.其中，南半球西风指数上升幅度较北半球大，其振荡落后于南极位势高度. 相似文献
17.
短期气候预测中如何将气候模式和统计方法的预测结果科学、客观的集成起来，一直是非常重要的问题.本文针对动力模式和统计方法预测结果相结合的问题，引入资料同化中信息融合的思想，采用最优内插同化方法，实现了动力模式和统计季节降水预测结果的融合.检验表明，对1982-2015年我国夏季降水百分率的回报，融合预测结果与观测的平均空间相关系数可达0.44，分别较统计预测和CFSv2模式统计降尺度订正的技巧提高了0.1左右，而均方根误差较两者可以降低5%~20%.可见，该方法可以进一步提升对我国夏季降水的预测技巧，具有显著的业务应用价值. 相似文献
18.
G.I. Gordienko I.N. Fedulina D. Altadill M.G. Shepherd 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2007,69(17-18):2452
The foF2 data obtained at Alma-Ata and Observatorio Del Ebro during the winter/spring of 2003–2004 are analyzed to compare and investigate the upper ionosphere variability at the two selected sites. The geomagnetic activity and the middle stratosphere dynamics, involving planetary wave (PW) activity, are analyzed for understanding the physical conditions and processes that can explain the observed ionospheric variability. By applying the same method of wavelet analysis to the data sets and doing a direct comparison of the results, two types of foF2 disturbances were found. The first type is 2–7-day oscillations, which appeared during periods of increased geomagnetic activity. The second type is oscillations arising from PW activity in the lower atmosphere. These consist of (1) 6–11-day oscillations arising from PW activity in lower atmospheric regions developed during the final stratosphere warming and indicating the timing of the transition from the winter to the summer circulation and (2) 9–13-day and 8–10-day oscillations mostly during the quiet level of geomagnetic activity, indicating a likely close relation with those in the geopotential height at the 1 hPa level for westward-propagating waves at 40°N, which strengthened during stratosphere warming events in January 2004. The time delay of the oscillations in the ΔfoF2 with respect to those in the geopotential height is about 10 days and it seems that the assumed ionosphere response can occur under weakened eastward zonal wind or relatively weak westward zonal wind (V<30 m s−1). 相似文献
19.
Sarith P.P. Mahanama Randal D. Koster Rolf H. Reichle Lareef Zubair 《Advances in water resources》2008
The two main contributors to streamflow predictability at subseasonal to seasonal timescales in tropical regions are: (i) the predictability of meteorologic (particularly precipitation) anomalies, and (ii) the land surface soil moisture state at the start of the forecast period. Meteorological predictions at subseasonal timescale are usually fraught with error and may not be dependable. The accurate initialization of soil moisture, as obtained through real-time land data analysis, may provide skill in subseasonal to seasonal streamflow prediction, even when the prediction skill for rainfall is small. 相似文献
20.
Tao Gao Xiaohui Shi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(5):1421-1440
Analyses of the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation extremes defined by eleven extreme precipitation indices in Shandong were conducted by utilizing the methods of linear regression, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and Mann–Kendall test. The results revealed that statistically significant decreasing trends existed for almost all extreme precipitation indices except for the consecutive dry days (CDD) and simple daily intensity index. A periodicity of 10–15 years for precipitation extremes is detected by EEMD analysis. Greatest 5-day total rainfall (RX5day), very wet days (R95p) and annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) experienced decreasing trends in the region stretching from the southeast coast to the west, while the spatial distribution of the decreasing trends for other indices was more complicated. Moreover, the frequency of occurrence in precipitation extremes at Changdao station, surrounded by the sea in the northeast region, increased in contrast to surrounding stations. This may suggest a possible effect from the local marine environment on extreme precipitation. In addition, the stations with statistically significant positive trends for CDD were mainly located in mid-west Shandong and along the southeast coast, where the extreme precipitation and total rainfall were, on the contrary, characterized by decreasing trends. These results indicate that drought or severe drought events have become more frequent in those regions. Analysis of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes indicates that a strengthening anticyclonic circulation and increasing geopotential height as well as decreasing strength of monsoonal flow in recent decades may have contributed to the variations in extreme precipitation in Shandong. 相似文献