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1.
A one‐dimensional hydrodynamic lake model (DYRESM‐WQ‐I) is employed to simulate ice cover and water temperatures over the period 1911–2014. The effects of climate changes (air temperature and wind speed) on ice cover (ice‐on, ice‐off, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) are modeled and compared for the three different morphometry lakes: Fish Lake, Lake Wingra, and Lake Mendota, located in Madison, Wisconsin, USA. It is found that the ice cover period has decreased due to later ice‐on dates and earlier ice‐off dates, and the annual maximum ice cover thickness has decreased for the three lakes during the last century. Based upon simulated perturbations of daily mean air temperatures across the range of ?10°C to +10°C of historical values, Fish Lake has the most occurrences of no ice cover and Lake Wingra still remains ice covered under extreme conditions (+10°C). Overall, shallower lakes with larger surface areas appear more resilient to ice cover changes caused by climate changes.  相似文献   

2.
A large number of rivers are frozen annually, and the river ice cover has an influence on the geomorphological processes. These processes in cohesive sediment rivers are not fully understood. Therefore, this paper demonstrates the impact of river ice cover on sediment transport, i.e. turbidity, suspended sediment loads and erosion potential, compared with a river with ice‐free flow conditions. The present sediment transportation conditions during the annual cycle are analysed, and the implications of climate change on wintertime geomorphological processes are estimated. A one‐dimensional hydrodynamic model has been applied to the Kokemäenjoki River in Southwest Finland. The shear stress forces directed to the river bed are simulated with present and projected hydroclimatic conditions. The results of shear stress simulations indicate that a thermally formed smooth ice cover diminishes river bed erosion, compared with an ice‐free river with similar discharges. Based on long‐term field data, the river ice cover reduces turbidity statistically significantly. Furthermore, suspended sediment concentrations measured in ice‐free and ice‐covered river water reveal a diminishing effect of ice cover on riverine sediment load. The hydrodynamic simulations suggest that the influence of rippled ice cover on shear stress is varying. Climate change is projected to increase the winter discharges by 27–77% on average by 2070–2099. Thus, the increasing winter discharges and possible diminishing ice cover periods both increase the erosion potential of the river bed. Hence, the wintertime sediment load of the river is expected to become larger in the future. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Potential future changes in lake physical processes (e.g. stratification and freezing) can be assessed through exploring their sensitivity to climate change, and assessing the current vulnerability of different lake types to plausible changes in meteorological drivers. This study quantifies the impacts of climate change and sensitivity of lake physical processes within a large (5100 km2) Precambrian Shield catchment in south‐central Ontario. Historic regional relationships are established between climate drivers, lake morphology, and lake physical changes through generalized linear modelling (GLM), and are used to quantify likely changes in timing of ice phenology and lake stratification across 72 lakes under a range of future climate models and scenarios. In response to projections of increased temperature (ensemble mean of +3.3 °C), both earlier ice‐off and onset of summer stratification were projected, with later ice‐on and fall turnover compared to the baseline. Process sensitivity to climate change varied by lake type; shallower lakes with a smaller volume (less than 15 m deep and less than 0.05 km3) were more sensitive to processes associated with lake heating (stratification onset and ice‐off), and deeper lakes with a larger surface area (greater than 30 m deep and greater than 1000 ha) were more sensitive to processes associated with lake cooling (fall turnover and ice‐on). These results indicate that whereas small lakes are vulnerable to climate warming because of changes that occur in spring and summer, larger lakes are particularly sensitive during the fall. The findings suggest that lake morphology and associated sensitivity should be considered in the development of sustainable lake management strategies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
Lake ice supports a range of socio‐economic and cultural activities including transportation and winter recreational actives. The influence of weather patterns on ice‐cover dynamics of temperate lakes requires further understanding for determining how changes in ice composition will impact ice safety and the range of ecosystem services provided by seasonal ice cover. An investigation of lake ice formation and decay for three lakes in Central Ontario, Canada, took place over the course of two winters, 2015–2016 and 2016–2017, through the use of outdoor digital cameras, a Shallow Water Ice Profiler (upward‐looking sonar), and weekly field measurements. Temperature fluctuations across 0°C promoted substantial early season white ice growth, with lesser amounts of black ice forming later in the season. Ice thickening processes observed were mainly through meltwater, or midwinter rain, refreezing on the ice surface. Snow redistribution was limited, with frequent melt events limiting the duration of fresh snow on the ice, leading to a fairly uniform distribution of white ice across the lakes in 2015–2016 (standard deviations week to week ranging from 3 to 5 cm), but with slightly more variability in 2016–2017 when more snow accumulated over the season (5 to 11 cm). White ice dominated the end‐of‐season ice composition for both seasons representing more than 70% of the total ice thickness, which is a stark contrast to Arctic lake ice that is composed mainly of black ice. This research has provided the first detailed lake ice processes and conditions from medium‐sized north‐temperate lakes and provided important information on temperate region lake ice characteristics that will enhance the understanding of the response of temperate lake ice to climate and provide insight on potential changes to more northern ice regimes under continued climate warming.  相似文献   

5.
An understanding of temporal evolution of snow on sea ice at different spatial scales is essential for improvement of snow parameterization in sea ice models. One of the problems we face, however, is that long‐term climate data are routinely available for land and not for sea ice. In this paper, we examine the temporal evolution of snow over smooth land‐fast first‐year sea ice using observational and modelled data. Changes in probability density functions indicate that depositional and drifting events control the evolution of snow distribution. Geostatistical analysis suggests that snowdrifts increased over the study period, and the orientation was related to the meteorological conditions. At the microscale, the temporal evolution of the snowdrifts was a product of infilling in the valleys between drifts. Results using two shore‐based climate reporting stations (Paulatuk and Tuktoyuktuk, NWT) suggest that on‐ice air temperature and relative humidity can be estimated using air temperature recorded at either station. Wind speed, direction and precipitation on ice cannot be accurately estimated using meteorological data from either station. The temporal evolution of snow distribution over smooth land‐fast sea ice was modelled using SnowModel and four different forcing regimes. The results from these model runs indicate a lack of agreement between observed distribution and model outputs. The reasons for these results are lack of meteorological measurements prior to the end of January, lack of spatially adequate surface topography and discrepancies between meteorological variables on land and ice. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Abstract

River ice jams can produce extreme flood events with major social, economic and ecological impacts throughout Canada. Ice breakup and jamming processes are briefly reviewed and shown to be governed by the flow hydrograph, the thickness and strength of the winter ice cover, and the stream morphology. These factors are directly or indirectly influenced by weather conditions which implies potential impacts of climate change and variability on the severity of ice-jamming. Relevant work has to date focused on simple measures of climatic effects, such as the timing of freeze-up and breakup, and indicates trends that are consistent with concomitant changes in air temperature. More recently, it has been found that increased incidence of mid-winter breakup events and higher freshet flows in certain parts of Canada could enhance the frequency and severity of ice jams. Possible future trends under climate warming scenarios are discussed and associated impacts identified in a general manner.  相似文献   

7.
Ice processes taking place in steep channels are sensitive to the thermal and hydrological regimes of upstream reaches and tributaries as well as to the local channel morphology. This work presents freezeup, mid‐winter, and breakup data from four channels of increasing order located in a cold temperate watershed during the winter 2010–2011. From headwater channels to the main drainage system, water temperature, ice coverage, and ice processes are reported and related to weather conditions and to channel characteristics. Headwater channels only formed ephemeral ice features, and their water temperature reached as much as 4 °C in mid‐winter. On the other hand, larger channels formed impressively large ice dams, some of them reaching 2 m in height. The development of a suspended ice cover partially insulated the channels; as a result, water temperatures remained above 0 °C even for air temperatures well below freezing. This work presents steep channels ice processes that have not been described in previous publications. The concept of a watershed cryologic continuum (WCC) is developed from the data collected at each channel order. This concept emphasizes the feedback loops that exist between morphology, hydrology, heat, and ice processes in a given watershed and can lead to a better understanding of ice processes taking place at any channel location within that watershed. The WCC can also contribute in improving our understanding of the impacts of climate change on the cryologic and thermal regimes of steep channels. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Current glacier ablation models have difficulty simulating the high-melt transition zone between clean and debris-covered ice. In this zone, thin debris cover is thought to increase ablation compared to clean ice, but often this cover is patchy rather than continuous. There is a need to understand ablation and debris dynamics in this transition zone to improve the accuracy of ablation models and the predictions of future debris cover extent. To quantify the ablation of partially debris-covered ice (or ‘dirty ice’), a high-resolution, spatially continuous ablation map was created from repeat unmanned aerial systems surveys, corrected for glacier flow in a novel way using on-glacier ablation stakes. Surprisingly, ablation is similar (range ~ 5 mm w.e. per day) across a wide range of percentage debris covers (~ 30–80%) due to the opposing effects of a positive correlation between percentage debris cover and clast size, countered by a negative correlation with albedo. Once debris cover becomes continuous, ablation is significantly reduced (by 61.6% compared to a partial debris cover), and there is some evidence that the cleanest ice (<~ 15% debris cover) has a lower ablation than dirty ice (by 3.7%). High-resolution feature tracking of clast movement revealed a strong modal clast velocity where debris was continuous, indicating that debris moves by creep down moraine slopes, in turn promoting debris cover growth at the slope toe. However, not all slope margins gain debris due to the removal of clasts by supraglacial streams. Clast velocities in the dirty ice area were twice as fast as clasts within the continuously debris-covered area, as clasts moved by sliding off their boulder tables. These new quantitative insights into the interplay between debris cover characteristics and ablation can be used to improve the treatment of dirty ice in ablation models, in turn improving estimates of glacial meltwater production. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd  相似文献   

9.
Sorted patterned ground is ubiquitous where gravelly fine soil experiences freeze–thaw cycles, but experimental studies have rarely been successful in reproducing such patterns. This article reports an attempt to reproduce miniature sorted patterns by repeating needle‐ice formation, which simulates frost sorting in regions dominated by diurnal freeze–thaw cycles. Six full‐scale laboratory models were tested. They consisted of near‐saturated volcanic fine soil topped by small stones of uniform size; the models explored a range of stone size (~6, ~12, ~17 and ~22 mm) and surface abundance (20, 40 and 60% cover). The stones were placed in a grid on the surface. These models were subjected to 20–30 temperature excursions between 10 °C and ?5 °C in 12 hours. The evolution of surface patterns were visually traced by photogrammetry. A data logging system continuously monitored vertical soil displacements, soil temperatures and moistures at different depths. All experimental runs displayed needle‐ice formation (2–3 cm in height) and resulting displacement of stones. The soil domains tended to heave faster and higher than the stones, leading to outward movement of the former and concentration of the stones. In plan view, smaller stones showed relatively fast and long‐lasting movements, while larger stones stabilized after the first five cycles. The 20% stone cover produced stone islands, whereas the 40% cover resulted in sorted labyrinths (a circle‐island complex) that may represent incipient sorted circles. The average diameter or spacing of these forms are 12–13 cm, being comparable to those in the field. The experiments imply that needle‐ice activity promotes rapid formation of sorted patterns, although the formation of well‐defined sorted circles may require hundreds of diurnal frost heave cycles. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
ABSTRACT

In cold region environments, any alteration in the hydro-climatic regime can have profound impacts on river ice processes. This paper studies the implications of hydro-climatic trends on river ice processes, particularly on the freeze-up and ice-cover breakup along the Athabasca River in Fort McMurray in western Canada, which is an area very prone to ice-jam flooding. Using a stochastic approach in a one-dimensional hydrodynamic river ice model, a relationship between overbank flow and breakup discharge is established. Furthermore, the likelihood of ice-jam flooding in the future (2041–2070 period) is assessed by forcing a hydrological model with meteorological inputs from the Canadian regional climate model driven by two atmospheric–ocean general circulation climate models. Our results show that the probability of ice-jam flooding for the town of Fort McMurray in the future will be lower, but extreme ice-jam flood events are still probable.  相似文献   

11.
We present an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on hydropower production within a paradigmatic, very highly exploited cryospheric area of upper Valtellina valley in the Italian Alps. Based on dependable and unique hydrological measures from our high‐altitude hydrometric network Idrostelvio during 2006–2015, we set up the Poly‐Hydro model to mimic the cryospheric processes driving hydrological flow formation in this high‐altitude area. We then set up an optimization tool, which we call Poly‐Power, to maximize the revenue of the plant manager under given hydrological regimes, namely, by proper operation of the hydroelectric production scheme (reservoirs, pipelines, and power plants) of the area. We then pursue hydrological projections until 2100, feeding Poly‐Hydro with the downscaled outputs of three general circulation models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, under the scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. We assess hydrological flows in two reference decades, that is, at half century (2040–2049), and end of century (2090–2099). We then feed the so obtained hydrological scenarios as inputs to Poly‐Power, and we project future production of hydroelectric power, with and without reoperation of the system. The average annual stream flows for hydropower production decreases along the century under our scenarios (?21 to +7%, on average ? 5% at half century; ?17 to ?2%, average ? 8%, end of century), with ice cover melting unable to offset such decrease. Reduction in snowfall and increase in liquid rainfall are the main factors affecting the modified hydrological regime. Energy production (and revenues) at half century may increase under our scenarios (?9 to +15%, +3% on average). At the end of century in spite of a projected increase on average (?7 to +6%, +1% on average), under the warmest scenario RCP 8.5 decrease of energy production is consistently projected (?4% on average). Our results provide an array of potential scenarios of modified hydropower production under future climate change and may be used for brain storming of adaptation strategies.  相似文献   

12.
The northern mid‐high latitudes form a region that is sensitive to climate change, and many areas already have seen – or are projected to see – marked changes in hydroclimatic drivers on catchment hydrological function. In this paper, we use tracer‐aided conceptual runoff models to investigate such impacts in a mesoscale (749 km2) catchment in northern Scotland. The catchment encompasses both sub‐arctic montane sub‐catchments with high precipitation and significant snow influence and drier, warmer lowland sub‐catchments. We used downscaled HadCM3 General Circulation Model outputs through the UKCP09 stochastic weather generator to project the future climate. This was based on synthetic precipitation and temperature time series generated from three climate change scenarios under low, medium and high greenhouse gas emissions. Within an uncertainty framework, we examined the impact of climate change at the monthly, seasonal and annual scales and projected impacts on flow regimes in upland and lowland sub‐catchments using hydrological models with appropriate process conceptualization for each landscape unit. The results reveal landscape‐specific sensitivity to climate change. In the uplands, higher temperatures result in diminishing snow influence which increases winter flows, with a concomitant decline in spring flows as melt reduces. In the lowlands, increases in air temperatures and re‐distribution of precipitation towards autumn and winter lead to strongly reduced summer flows despite increasing annual precipitation. The integration at the catchment outlet moderates these seasonal extremes expected in the headwaters. This highlights the intimate connection between hydrological dynamics and catchment characteristics which reflect landscape evolution. It also indicates that spatial variability of changes in climatic forcing combined with differential landscape sensitivity in large heterogeneous catchments can lead to higher resilience of the integrated runoff response. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
In northern regions, river ice‐ jam flooding can be more severe than open‐water flooding causing property and infrastructure damages, loss of human life and adverse impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Very little has been performed to assess the risk induced by ice‐related floods because most risk assessments are limited to open‐water floods. The specific objective of this study is to incorporate ice‐jam numerical modelling tools (e.g. RIVICE, Monte‐Carlo simulation) into flood hazard and risk assessment along the Peace River at the Town of Peace River (TPR) in Alberta, Canada. Adequate historical data for different ice‐jam and open‐water flooding events were available for this study site and were useful in developing ice‐affected stage‐frequency curves. These curves were then applied to calibrate a numerical hydraulic model, which simulated different ice jams and flood scenarios along the Peace River at the TPR. A Monte‐Carlo analysis was then carried out to acquire an ensemble of water level profiles to determine the 1 : 100‐year and 1 : 200‐year annual exceedance probability flood stages for the TPR. These flood stages were then used to map flood hazard and vulnerability of the TPR. Finally, the flood risk for a 200‐year return period was calculated to be an average of $32/m2/a ($/m2/a corresponds to a unit of annual expected damages or risk). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
The impacts of climate‐induced changes in discharge and base level in three tributaries of the Saint‐Lawrence River, Québec, Canada, are modelled for the period 2010–2099 using a one‐dimensional morphodynamic model. Changes in channel stability and bed‐material delivery to the Saint‐Lawrence River over this period are simulated for all combinations of seven tributary hydrological regimes (present‐day and those predicted using three global climate models and two greenhouse gas emission scenarios) and three scenarios of how the base level provided by the Saint‐Lawrence River will alter (no change, gradual fall, step fall). Even with no change in base level the projected discharge scenarios lead to an increase in average bed material delivery for most combinations of river and global climate model, although the magnitude of simulated change depends on the choice of global climate model and the trend over time seems related to whether the river is currently aggrading, degrading or in equilibrium. The choice of greenhouse gas emission scenario makes much less difference than the choice of global climate model. As expected, a fall in base level leads to degradation in the rivers currently aggrading or in equilibrium, and amplifies the effects of climate change on sediment delivery to the Saint‐Lawrence River. These differences highlight the importance of investigating several rivers using several climate models in order to determine trends in climate change impacts. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Thermokarst lakes cover > 20% of the landscape throughout much of the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) with shallow lakes freezing solid (grounded ice) and deeper lakes maintaining perennial liquid water (floating ice). Thus, lake depth relative to maximum ice thickness (1·5–2·0 m) represents an important threshold that impacts permafrost, aquatic habitat, and potentially geomorphic and hydrologic behaviour. We studied coupled hydrogeomorphic processes of 13 lakes representing a depth gradient across this threshold of maximum ice thickness by analysing remotely sensed, water quality, and climatic data over a 35‐year period. Shoreline erosion rates due to permafrost degradation ranged from < 0·2 m/year in very shallow lakes (0·4 m) up to 1·8 m/year in the deepest lakes (2·6 m). This pattern of thermokarst expansion masked detection of lake hydrologic change using remotely sensed imagery except for the shallowest lakes with stable shorelines. Changes in the surface area of these shallow lakes tracked interannual variation in precipitation minus evaporation (P ? EL) with periods of full and nearly dry basins. Shorter‐term (2004–2008) specific conductance data indicated a drying pattern across lakes of all depths consistent with the long‐term record for only shallow lakes. Our analysis suggests that grounded‐ice lakes are ice‐free on average 37 days longer than floating‐ice lakes resulting in a longer period of evaporative loss and more frequent negative P ? EL. These results suggest divergent hydrogeomorphic responses to a changing Arctic climate depending on the threshold created by water depth relative to maximum ice thickness in ACP lakes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
The impacts of the spatiotemporal variations of sea ice salinity on sea ice and ocean characteristics have not been studied in detail, as the existing climate models neglect or misrepresent this process. To address this issue, this paper formulated a parameterization with more realistic sea ice salinity budget, and examined the sensitivity of sea ice and ocean simulations to the ice salinity variations and associated salt flux into the ocean using a coupled global climate model. Results show that the inclus...  相似文献   

17.
The distributed hydrology–soil–vegetation model (DHSVM) was used to study the potential impacts of projected future land cover and climate change on the hydrology of the Puget Sound basin, Washington, in the mid‐twenty‐first century. A 60‐year climate model output, archived for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), was statistically downscaled and used as input to DHSVM. From the DHSVM output, we extracted multi‐decadal averages of seasonal streamflow, annual maximum flow, snow water equivalent (SWE), and evapotranspiration centred around 2030 and 2050. Future land cover was represented by a 2027 projection, which was extended to 2050, and DHSVM was run (with current climate) for these future land cover projections. In general, the climate change signal alone on sub‐basin streamflow was evidenced primarily through changes in the timing of winter and spring runoff, and slight increases in the annual runoff. Runoff changes in the uplands were attributable both to climate (increased winter precipitation, less snow) and land cover change (mostly reduced vegetation maturity). The most climatically sensitive parts of the uplands were in areas where the current winter precipitation is in the rain–snow transition zone. Changes in land cover were generally more important than climate change in the lowlands, where a substantial change to more urbanized land use and increased runoff was predicted. Both the annual total and seasonal distribution of freshwater flux to Puget Sound are more sensitive to climate change impacts than to land cover change, primarily because most of the runoff originates in the uplands. Both climate and land cover change slightly increase the annual freshwater flux to Puget Sound. Changes in the seasonal distribution of freshwater flux are mostly related to climate change, and consist of double‐digit increases in winter flows and decreases in summer and fall flows. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Winter conditions play an important role for the largest lake in Europe—Lake Ladoga. The ice cover lasts for 171 ± 3 days on average from the early November until the mid‐May. We investigated the ice regime of Lake Ladoga using a constructed ice database of aircraft surveys and satellite images. More than 1250 surveys of the lake's ice cover from 1943 to 2010 were collected and analysed to determine mean and extreme ice conditions for winters of different types of severity. The time series of ice cover percentage over the lake was plotted. On average, 18 observational ice charts were made every winter. Individual ice phenology records show considerable year‐to‐year variation. For this reason, records typically have been combined and analysed as groups (categories). Extremely cold winters were determined as winters with complete ice cover that lasts more than three months which is approximately 90% quartiles from all winters with complete ice cover. The lake surface was completely covered with ice for more than three months during 5 seasons. Extremely warm winters when the maximum ice cover was less than 70% of the lake area occurred during 5 seasons as well. A basic relationship between the winter severity as winter maximum of accumulated freezing degree‐days (AFDD) and the earlier derived Relative Ice Cover Index (RICI) was established. We have used teleconnection indices such as North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the period from October to May for estimation of different types of Lake Ladoga's ice conditions. The AO index in winter months and local winter maximum of AFDD explained much of the interannual variation in ice cover. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Northern rivers experience freeze‐up over the winter, creating asymmetric under‐ice flows. Field and laboratory measurements of under‐ice flows typically exhibit flow asymmetry and its characteristics depend on the presence of roughness elements on the ice cover underside. In this study, flume experiments of flows under a simulated ice cover are presented. Open water conditions and simulated rough ice‐covered flows are discussed. Mean flow and turbulent flow statistics were obtained from an Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter (ADV) above a gravel‐bed surface. A central region of faster flow develops in the middle portion of the flow with the addition of a rough cover. The turbulent flow characteristics are unambiguously different when simulated ice covered conditions are used. Two distinct boundary layers (near the bed and in the vicinity of the ice cover, near the water surface) are clearly identified, each being characterized by high turbulent intensity levels. Detailed profile measurements of Reynolds stresses and turbulent kinetic energy indicate that the turbulence structure is strongly influenced by the presence of an ice cover and its roughness characteristics. In general, for y/d > 0·4 (where y is height above bed and d is local flow depth), the addition of cover and its roughening tends to generate higher turbulent kinetic energy values in comparison to open water flows and Reynolds stresses become increasingly negative due to increased turbulence levels in the vicinity of the rough ice cover. The high negative Reynolds stresses not only indicate high turbulence levels created by the rough ice cover but also coherent flow structures where quadrants one and three dominate. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
湖冰作为湖泊-大气界面能量和物质交换的结果,其物候变化对揭示区域气候变化和湖泊响应过程具有重要意义.本研究基于2000-2020年色林错边界矢量数据、Terra MODIS和Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI遥感影像并结合气象数据及湖泊资料,利用RS和GIS手段综合分析了色林错湖冰物候变化特征及其影响因素.结果 表...  相似文献   

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