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1.
In this work,we seek for a new way to recognize and analyze the Seismic Precursory Anomaly(SPA)quantitatively.For further study of the mechanism of SPA,an artificial intelligence method,the Machine Discovery(MD)method,is proposed to process the Seismic Precursor Observation(SPO)data and to fit an analytic function to them.The analytic function is used as a criterion to identify the SPA.The algorithm of MD is worked out based on the theory of Recursive Function(RF).The data of Amplitude Factor of Solid Tide(7 value)are processed by the proposed method.We find that the subsequent data fit to the extrapolation of the discovered function during the quiet period,whereas they deviate from it before a strong earthquake.Finally,the feasibility of quantitative analysis of the SPA is testified.  相似文献   

2.
The value of a formally defined Anthropocene for geomorphologists is discussed. Human impacts have been diachronistic, multifaceted and episodic, as demonstrated by the record of alluvial deposition in the UK. Rather than boxing time into discrete eras or periods, modern research uses calendar dates and multiple dating techniques to explore co‐trajectories for a range of human impacts. Despite the value of ‘The Anthropocene’ as an informal concept and as a prompt to useful debate, arriving at a single, generally acceptable formal definition is impractical, and has some disadvantages. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
We present a methodology for determining the elastic properties of the shallow crust from inversion of surface wave dispersion characteristics through a fully nonlinear procedure. Using volcanic tremor data recorded by a small-aperture seismic array on Mount Etna, we measured the surface waves dispersion curves with the multiple signal classification technique. The large number of measurements allows the determination of an a priori probability density function without the need of making any assumption about the uncertainties on the observations. Using this information, we successively conducted the inversion of phase velocities using a probabilistic approach. Using a wave-number integration method, we calculated the predicted dispersion function for thousands of 1-D models through a systematic grid search investigation of shear-wave velocities in individual layers. We joined this set of theoretical dispersion curves to the experimental probability density function (PDF), thus obtaining the desired structural model in terms of an a posteriori PDF of model parameters. This process allowed the representation of the objective function, showing the non-uniqueness of the solutions and providing a quantitative view of the uncertainties associated with the estimation of each parameter. We then compared the solution with the surface wave group velocities derived from diffuse noise Green’s functions calculated at pairs of widely spaced (~5–10 km) stations. In their gross features, results from the two different approaches are comparable, and are in turn consistent with the models presented in several earlier studies.  相似文献   

4.
Experiments were conducted to determine whether the rhyolites and basalts of the intraplate silica-saturated potassic suites could be genetically related through crystallization. Extreme crystallization (96–97%) of a high-MgO (10.62 wt%) olivine tholeiite from the Snake River Plain with an initial bulk water content of 0.4 wt% at a mid-crustal pressure of 4.3 kbar generated potassic rhyolitic liquids similar in major element chemistry to those found in the Quaternary rhyolite domes of the Snake River Plain and their plutonic equivalents in the Proterozoic Laramie Anorthosite Complex. Residual liquids comparable in composition to the bulk rock compositions of intermediate rocks found at the Craters of the Moon and Cedar Butte eruptive centers in the Snake River Plain are also generated along this crystallization path. This paper constitutes part of a special issue dedicated to Bill Bonnichsen on the petrogenesis and volcanology of anorogenic rhyolites.  相似文献   

5.
The post-earthquake assessment of existing structures can be further complicated by the progressive damage induced by the occurrence of a sequence of aftershocks. This work presents a simple methodology for the calculation of the probability of exceeding a certain limit state in a given interval of time. The time-decaying mean daily rate of occurrence of significant aftershock events is modeled by employing a site-specific aftershock model for the L??Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). The number of aftershock events occurring in a given interval of time elapsed after the main event is modeled using a non-homogenous Poisson model. An equivalent single-degree of freedom structure with cyclic stiffness degradation is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage caused by a sequence of aftershock events. Given the time history of the main-shock and the residual damage caused by it, the probability of exceeding a set of discrete limit states in a given interval of time is calculated. Of particular importance is the time-variant probability of exceeding the limit state in a 24-h (a day) interval of time which can be used as a proxy for the life-safety considerations regarding the re-occupancy of the structure and to complement the results of visual inspections for prioritizing the emergency operations. The method presented herein can also be used in an adaptive manner, progressively conditioned on the time-histories of aftershock events following the main-shock and on the corresponding residual damage caused by them.  相似文献   

6.
Abstract

Rivers have been channelized, deepened and constrained by embankments for centuries to increase agricultural productivity and improve flood defences. This has decreased the hydrological connectivity between rivers and their floodplains. We quantified the hydrological regime of a wet grassland meadow prior to and after the removal of river embankments. River and groundwater chemistry were also monitored to examine hydrological controls on floodplain nutrient status. Prior to restoration, the highest river flows (～2 m3 s?1) were retained by the embankments. Under these flow conditions the usual hydraulic gradient from the floodplain to the river was reversed so that subsurface flows were directed towards the floodplain. Groundwater was depleted in dissolved oxygen (mean: 0.6 mg O2 L?1) and nitrate (mean: 0.5 mg NO3 ?-N L?1) relative to river water (mean: 10.8 mg O2 L?1 and 6.2 mg NO3 ?-N L?1, respectively). Removal of the embankments has reduced the channel capacity by an average of 60%. This has facilitated over-bank flow which is likely to favour conditions for improved flood storage and removal of river nutrients by floodplain sediments.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Heal

Citation Clilverd, H.M., Thompson, J.R., Heppell, C.M., Sayer, C.D., and Axmacher, J.C., 2013. River–floodplain hydrology of an embanked lowland Chalk river and initial response to embankment removal. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 627–650.  相似文献   

7.
Localized declines in coral condition are commonly linked to land-based sources of stressors that influence gradients of water quality, and the distance to sources of stressors is commonly used as a proxy for predicting the vulnerability and future status of reef resources. In this study, we evaluated explicitly whether proximity to shore and connections to coastal bays, two measures of potential land-based sources of disturbance, influence coral community and population structure, and the abundance, distribution, and condition of corals within patch reefs of the Florida Reef Tract. In the Florida Keys, long-term monitoring has documented significant differences in water quality along a cross-shelf gradient. Inshore habitats exhibit higher levels of nutrients (DIN and TP), TOC, turbidity, and light attenuation, and these levels decrease with increasing distance from shore and connections to tidal bays. In clear contrast to these patterns of water quality, corals on inshore patch reefs exhibited significantly higher coral cover, higher growth rates, and lower partial mortality rates than those documented in similar offshore habitats. Coral recruitment rates did not differ between inshore and offshore habitats. Corals on patch reefs closest to shore had well-spread population structures numerically dominated by intermediate to large colonies, while offshore populations showed narrower size-distributions that become increasingly positively skewed. Differences in size-structure of coral populations were attributed to faster growth and lower rates of partial mortality at inshore habitats. While the underlying causes for the favorable condition of inshore coral communities are not yet known, we hypothesize that the ability of corals to shift their trophic mode under adverse environmental conditions may be partly responsible for the observed patterns, as shown in other reef systems. This study, based on data collected from a uniform reef habitat type and coral species with diverse life-history and stress-response patterns from a heavily exploited reef system, showed that proximity to potential sources of stressors may not always prove an adequate proxy for assigning potential risks to reef health, and that hypothesized patterns of coral cover, population size-structure, growth, and mortality are not always directly related to water quality gradients.  相似文献   

8.
—Rainfall-triggered landslides constitute a serious hazard and an important geomorphic process in many parts of the world. Attempts have been made at various scales in a number of countries to investigate triggering conditions in order to identify patterns in behaviour and, ultimately, to define or calculate landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. This study was carried out in three landslide-prone regions in the North Island of New Zealand. Regional landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds were calculated using an empirical “Antecedent Daily Rainfall Model.” In this model, first introduced by, triggering rainfall conditions are represented by a combination of rainfall occurring in a period before the event (antecedent rainfall) and rainfall on the day of the event. A physically-based decay coefficient is derived for each region from the recessional behaviour of storm hydrographs and is used to produce an index for antecedent rainfall. Statistical techniques are employed to obtain the thresholds which best separate the rainfall conditions associated with landslide occurrence from those of non-occurrence or a given probability of occurrence.The resultant regional models are able to represent the probability of occurrence of landsliding events on the basis of rainfall conditions. The calculated thresholds show regional differences in susceptibility of a given landscape to landslide-triggering rainfall. These differences relate to both the landslide database and the difference of existing physical conditions between the regions.  相似文献   

9.
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10.
This paper proposes a nonparametric approach to estimating the dependence relationships between circular variables and other circular or linear variables using copulas. The proposed method is based on the use of Bernstein copulas which are a very flexible class of non-parametric copulas which allows for the approximation of any kind of dependence structure, including non symmetric relationships. In particular, we present a simple procedure to adapt Bernstein copulas to the circular framework and guarantee that the constructed bivariate distributions are strictly continuous. We provide two illustrative case studies, the first on the relation between wind direction and quantity of rainfall in the North of Spain and the second on the dependence between the wind directions in two nearby buoys at the Atlantic ocean.  相似文献   

11.
We present a new set of brittle microtectonic measurements carried out in the Pliocene and Quaternary rocks outcropping in several key sectors of the western Betic and Rif orogen, the so-called Gibraltar orogenic arc. This data set, along with available earthquake focal mechanisms and borehole breakouts, allowed us to compile the Pliocene and Quaternary stress map of this area. This map provides new constraints for tectonic models and the present-day tectonic activity of the proposed active eastward subduction of oceanic lithosphere beneath the Gibraltar Arc and roll-back. The horizontal maximum compressive stress (SHmax) is NW-SE in the Betic Orogen and N-S/NNW-SSE in the southern Rif Cordillera. There is a significant consistency between SHmax and the displacement field deduced from GPS measurements with respect to the African plate: both appear to reflect the NW-SE convergence between the African and the European plates that is perturbed in the Rif. We propose that part of the eastern Rif behaves as a quasi-rigid block welded to the stable African plate. This block is bounded by important faults that localized most of the deformation disturbing the stress and surface displacement field. Pliocene to Quaternary N-S to NW-SE Africa-Europe plate convergence seem to be associated to the reorganization of the remnant Early Miocene subduction system in a continental–continental collision framework. Three-dimensional reconstruction of available seismic tomography plotted against the intermediate seismicity shows that only part of the old subduction system, whose orientation ranges from N20°E to N100°E, remains active: the portion ranging from N30°E to N40°E, orthogonal to the regional convergence.  相似文献   

12.
Small inland valley wetlands contribute substantially to the livelihoods of rural communities in East Africa. Their conversion into farmland is driven by water availability. We quantified spatial-temporal dynamics of water availability in a headwater wetland in the humid zone of Kenya. Climatic conditions, soil moisture contents, groundwater levels and discharge data were monitored. A land-use map and a digital elevation model of the valley bottom were created to relate variations in soil moisture to dominant land uses and valley morphology.Upland crops occupied about a third of the wetland area, while approximately a quarter of the wet, central part of the valley bottom was designated for flood-tolerant taro, grown either by itself or in association or in rotation with upland crops. Finally, natural vegetation was found in 3% of the mapped area, mainly in sections with nearpermanent soil saturation.The HBV rainfall-runoff model's overestimation of stream discharge during the long dry season of the hydrological year 2010/2011 can be explained by the strong seasonal impact of water abstraction on the wetland's water balance.Our study vividly demonstrates the necessity of multi-method approaches for assessing the impact of management practices on water availability in valley bottom wetlands in East Africa.  相似文献   

13.
ABSTRACT

A parameter estimation strategy for a conceptual rainfall–runoff (CRR) model applied to a storm sewer system in an urban catchment (Chassieu, Lyon, France) is proposed on the basis of event-by-event Bayesian local calibrations. The marginal distribution formed by locally-estimated parameters is divided into conditional functions, clustering the event-based parameters based on their transferability to similar rainfall events. The conditional functions showed to be consistent with an observed bimodality in the marginal representation, reflecting two different hydrological conditions mainly related to the magnitude of the rainfall intensities (high or low). The improvements achieved by expressing the parameter probability functions into a conditional form are shown in terms of accuracy (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion), precision (average relative interval length) and reliability (percentage of coverage) for simulating flow rate in 255 and 110 calibration/verification events.  相似文献   

14.
Before a strong earthquake, there is often a process of quiescence or (absence( of regional seismic activity, which is a phenomenon that has attracted the attention of many scholars in China and other countries (LU, et al, 1985; Wesson, 1973). In the past ten-odd years, some Chinese seismologists made, earlier or later, special studies on the quiescence anomaly of seismicity in some specified areas from different angles. Taking the converted annual frequency of M=5.0 earthquakes in North Ch…  相似文献   

15.
Ohne Zusammenfassung  相似文献   

16.
An oligotrophic bacterium was isolated from the biological soil crust underlayer in the Xinjiang Gurbantunggut Desert. It was numbered SGB-5, G . Cell size is (0.328-0.746) μm×(0.171-0.240) μm. Raised colony is white, roundness and its diameter is 5 mm. The strain is a facultative aerobe. It was able to grow in conditions of 1―15 mg·C·L?1 culture medium at 10―50℃. The strain's optimum growth temperature is 37℃. The range of its optimum growth pH is 8―9. A large amount of extracellular mucopolysaccharide was secreted during growth. The chemical composition of this mucopolysaccharide consists of arabinose, X sugar, glucose, galactose and mannitol. Mole ratio of these sugars is 1:14:19:6:14. The viscosity of the mucopolysaccharide can reach 6300 mPa·s, when the strain is cultivated for 72 h. After the culture solution in which viscosity was 1500 mPa·s was sprinkled on the quicksand surface, 6 mm bacteria crust of conglutinating sand was formed. This crust could not only stabilize sand, but could also potentially slow the rate of the soil water evaporation.  相似文献   

17.
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18.
Morphological change in river channels is frequently evaluated in the context of mass balance sediment budgets. In a closed sediment budget, measurements of sediment influx and efflux are coupled with measured changes in channel topography to provide both spatial and temporal resolution, and independent estimates of the mass balance. For sediment budgets constructed over long river segments (~102 channel widths or greater) and long periods (~2 years or longer), spatial and temporal accumulation of measurement uncertainty, compounded by inadequate sampling frequency or spatial coverage, may produce indeterminate results. The degree of indeterminacy may be evaluated in the context of a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), which is a function of the magnitude of the mass balance and the magnitudes of potential systematic uncertainties associated with measurements and incomplete sampling. We report on a closed sand budget consisting of measurements of flux and two morphological surveys for a 50-km segment of a large river over a 3-year period. Accurate reporting of the magnitude and sign of the change in sand storage was only possible by using state-of-the-art techniques with high temporal frequency and large spatial extent. Together, a sand flux and morphological mass balance revealed that sand evacuation was temporally concentrated (~100% of mass change occurred during 19% of the study period) and highly localized (70% of mass change occurred in 12% of the study segment). A SNR analysis revealed that uncertainty resulting from undersampling may approach or exceed that caused by measurement uncertainty and that daily sampling of suspended-sand concentration or repeat mapping of at least 50% of the river segment was required to determine the sand budget with SNR > 1. The approach used here to analyze sand budget uncertainty is especially applicable to other river systems with large temporal variability in sediment transport and large spatial variability in erosion and deposition. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
《地震学报(英文版)》2007,20(6):715-716
SHANG Xue-feng （尚学峰） Ph D Candidate of Department of Earth and Atmosphere Sciences in Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Graduated from School of Earth and Space Sciences in geophysics in 2004 and obtained his MS Degree from School of Earth and Space Sciences in geophysics in 2007. Now mainly engaged in researches on seismic wave theory and source failure dynamics.  相似文献   

20.
《地震学报(英文版)》2007,20(3):358-359
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