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1.
On 15 July 2009, a Mw 7.8 earthquake occurred off the New Zealand coast, which by serendipitous coincidence occurred while
the International Tsunami Symposium was in session in Novosibirsk, Russia. The earthquake generated a tsunami that propagated
across the Tasman Sea and was detected in New Zealand, Australia and as far away as the US West coast. Small boats close to
the epicenter were placed in jeopardy, but no significant damage was observed despite a measured run-up height of 2.3 m in
one of the Sounds in close proximity to the source (Wilson in GNS Science Report 46:62 2009). Peak-to-trough tsunami heights of 55 cm were measured at Southport, Tasmania and a height of 1 m was measured in Jackson
Bay, New Zealand. The International Tsunami Symposium provided an ideal venue for illustration of the value of immediate real-time
assessment and provided an opportunity to further validate the real time forecasting capabilities with the scientific community
in attendance. A number of agencies with responsibility for tsunami forecast and/or warning, such as the NOAA Center for Tsunami
Research, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, GNS Science in New Zealand, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the European
Commission Joint Research Centre were all represented at the meeting and were able to demonstrate the use of state of the
art numerical models to assess the tsunami potential and provide warning as appropriate. 相似文献
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3.
Nurcan Meral Ozel Necmioglu Ocal Yalciner Ahmet Cevdet Dogan Kalafat Mustafa Erdik 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2011
Tsunami mitigation, preparedness and early warning initiatives have begun at the global scale only after the tragic event of Sumatra in 2004. Turkey, as a country with a history of devastating earthquakes, has been also affected by tsunamis in its past. In this paper we present the Tsunami Hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean and its connected seas (Aegean, Marmara and Black Sea) by providing detailed information on historically and instrumentally recorded significant tsunamigenic events surrounding Turkey, aiming to a better understanding of the Tsunami threat to the Turkish coasts. In addition to the review of the Tsunami hazard, we have studied a possible Tsunami source area between Rhodes and SW of Turkey using Tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE-two nested domains. We have computed a maximum positive amplitude of 1.13 m and maximum negative amplitude of −0.5 m at the Tsunami source by this study. The distribution of maximum positive amplitudes of the water surface elevations in the selected Tsunami forecast area and time histories of water level fluctuations near selected locations (Marmaris, Dalaman, Fethiye and Kas towns) indicate that the maximum positive amplitude near the coast in the selected forecast area exceeds 3.5 m. The arrival time of maximum wave to Marmaris, Dalaman, is 10 min, while that of Fethiye and Kas towns is 15–20 min. The maximum positive amplitudes near the shallow region of around 10 m depth are 3 m (Marmaris), 1 m (Dalaman), 2 m (Fethiye) and 1 m (Kas). Maximum positive amplitudes of water elevations in the duration of 4 h simulation of the Santorini-Minoan Tsunami in around 1600 BC in the Aegean Sea are also calculated based on a simulation performed using 900 m grid resolution of Aegean sea bathymetry with a 300 m collapse of 10 km diameter of Thera (Santorini) caldera. We have also presented the results of the Tsunami modeling and simulation for Marmara Sea obtained from a previous study. Last part of this paper provides information on the establishment of a Tsunami Warning Center by KOERI, which is expected to act also as a regional center under the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission – Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (ICG/NEAMTWS) initiative, emphasizing on the challenges together with the future work needed to be accomplished. 相似文献
4.
Phil R. Cummins Laura S. L. Kong Kenji Satake 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(11-12):1983-1989
In this introduction we briefly summarize the 14 contributions to Part I of this special issue on Tsunami Science Four Years after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. These papers are representative of the new tsunami science being conducted since the occurrence of that tragic event. Most of these were presented at the session: Tsunami Generation and Hazard, of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics XXIV General Assembly held at Perugia, Italy, in July of 2007. That session included over one hundred presentations on a wide range of topics in tsunami research. The papers grouped into Part I, and introduced here, cover topics directly related to tsunami mitigation such as numerical modelling, hazard assessment and databases. Part II of this special issue, Observations and Data Analysis, will be published in a subsequent volume of Pure and Applied Geophysics. 相似文献
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6.
简要介绍了南中国海区域海啸预警与减灾系统的建设和发展历程,同时重点阐述了地震监测系统构成及其基本功能。作为重要组成部分,地震监测系统通过地震数据的实时汇集、存储、自动处理和分析,并结合人机交互方式实现了地震定位、震源机制解和有限断层模型反演。实际应用表明,地震监测系统对全球6.0级以上地震定位时间不超过8 min,在震后10—15 min内完成W震相方法快速反演海底强震震源机制解,在震后短时间内完成有限断层模型反演,为海啸预警提供快速、准确、可靠的地震基本参数和震源特征参数。 相似文献
7.
Tsunami created by spreading submarine slides and slumps with spatially variable final uplift are investigated in the near-field using a kinematic model. It is shown that for velocities of spreading comparable to and smaller than the long period tsunami velocity
(g is the acceleration due to gravity and h is the ocean depth), the models with spatially uniform final uplift of the accumulation and depletion zones provide good approximation for the tsunami amplitudes in the near-field. For spreading velocities 2–5 times greater than cT, and for applications that use wavelengths of the order of the source dimensions, the spatial variability of the final uplift has to be considered in estimation of the high-frequency tsunami amplitudes in the near-field. 相似文献
8.
Tsunami Warning Centers issue rapid and accurate tsunami warnings to coastal populations by estimating the location and size of the causative earthquake as soon as possible after rupture initiation. Both US Tsunami Warning Centers have therefore been using Mwp to issue Tsunami Warnings 5–10 min after Earthquake origin time since 2002. However, because Mwp (Tsuboi et al., Bulletin of the Seismological society of America 85:606–613, 1995) is based on the far-field approximation to the P-wave displacement due to a double couple point source, we should only very carefully apply Mwp to data obtained in the near field, at distances of less than a few wavelengths from the fault. On the other hand, the surface waves from Great Earthquakes, including those that occur just offshore of populated areas, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, clip seismographs located near the fault. Because the first arriving P-waves from such large events are often on scale, Mwp should provide useful information, even for these Great Earthquakes. We therefore calculate Mwp from 18 unclipped STS-1 broadband P-wave seismograms, recorded at 2–15° distance from the Tohoku epicenter to determine if Mwp can usefully estimate Mw for this earthquake, using data obtained close to the epicenter. In this case there should be a good chance to get reliable Mwp values for stations at epicentral distances of 9–10°, since the source duration for the Tohoku earthquake is less than 200 s and the time window used to estimate Mwp is 120 s in duration. Our analysis indicates that Mwp does indeed give reliable results (Mw ~ 9.1) beginning at about 11° distance from the epicenter. The values of Mwp from seismic waveforms obtained at 11–15° epicentral distance from the Mw 9.1 off the east coast of Tohuku earthquake of March 11, 2011 fell within the range 9.1–9.3, and were available within 4–5 min after origin time. Even the Mwp values of 7.7–8.4, obtained at less than 5° epicentral distance, exceed the PTWC’s threshold of Mw 7.6 for issuing a regional tsunami warning to coastal populations within 1,000 km of the epicenter, and of Mw 6.9 for issuing a local tsunami warning to the coastal populations of Hawaii. 相似文献
9.
Local Groundwater Withdrawal Permitting Laws in the South‐Western U.S.: California in Comparative Context 
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下载免费PDF全文 The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) aims to control, for the first time in California's history, the state's significant use and depletion of groundwater. SGMA gives local agencies a high degree of discretion in relation to a new permitting power, but the discretion is a double‐edged sword: agencies gain maximum flexibility to tailor their regime to local conditions, yet the statute provides no direction on appropriate components of a groundwater permitting regime. We introduce SGMA and the broader legislative context to its permitting power, and we explain the continuing common law context in which the legislation operates. This information is used as the foundation for a comparative legal analysis of fundamental elements of permitting regimes. We compare a selection of six other south‐western permitting regimes established in legislation for areas recognized as requiring intensive management through permitting: “special permitting areas” (SPAs). We find that permitting regimes in south‐western SPAs share a structure containing several almost universal elements, although the policy settings that apply to those elements vary widely. The established permitting regimes in the other south‐western states' SPAs may inform Californian agencies seeking to use their new permitting power for the first time, as well as water agencies further afield, as to important components of a permitting regime, and the different policy settings that could apply to those components. Californian local agencies, and its Department of Water Resources, which is charged with providing local agencies technical advice, should have regard to these permitting possibilities. 相似文献
10.
Adaptive management is the pathway to effective conservation, use and management of Australia's coastal catchments and waterways. While the concepts of adaptive management are not new, applications involving both assessment and management responses are indeed limited at the national and regional scales. This paper outlines the components of a systematic framework for linking scientific knowledge, existing tools, planning approaches and participatory processes to achieve healthy regional partnerships between community, industry, government agencies and science providers to overcome institutional barriers and uncoordinated monitoring. The framework developed by the Coastal CRC (www.coastal.crc.org.au/amf/amf/_index.htm) is hierarchical in the way it displays information to allow associated frameworks to be integrated, and represents a construct in which processes, information, decision tools and outcomes are brought together in a structured and transparent way for adaptive catchment and coastal management. This paper proposes how an adaptive management approach could be used to benefit the implementation of the Reef Water Quality Protection Plan (RWQPP). 相似文献
11.
Understanding the time‐varying importance of different uncertainty sources in hydrological modelling using global sensitivity analysis 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Simulations from hydrological models are affected by potentially large uncertainties stemming from various sources, including model parameters and observational uncertainty in the input/output data. Understanding the relative importance of such sources of uncertainty is essential to support model calibration, validation and diagnostic evaluation and to prioritize efforts for uncertainty reduction. It can also support the identification of ‘disinformative data’ whose values are the consequence of measurement errors or inadequate observations. Sensitivity analysis (SA) provides the theoretical framework and the numerical tools to quantify the relative contribution of different sources of uncertainty to the variability of the model outputs. In traditional applications of global SA (GSA), model outputs are aggregations of the full set of a simulated variable. For example, many GSA applications use a performance metric (e.g. the root mean squared error) as model output that aggregates the distances of a simulated time series to available observations. This aggregation of propagated uncertainties prior to GSA may lead to a significant loss of information and may cover up local behaviour that could be of great interest. Time‐varying sensitivity analysis (TVSA), where the aggregation and SA are repeated at different time steps, is a viable option to reduce this loss of information. In this work, we use TVSA to address two questions: (1) Can we distinguish between the relative importance of parameter uncertainty versus data uncertainty in time? (2) Do these influences change in catchments with different characteristics? To our knowledge, the results present one of the first quantitative investigations on the relative importance of parameter and data uncertainty across time. We find that the approach is capable of separating influential periods across data and parameter uncertainties, while also highlighting significant differences between the catchments analysed. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Hydrological Processes. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 相似文献
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The Alaska Tsunami Warning Center has the responsibility of providing timely tsunami warning services for Alaska and the west coasts of Canada and the United States. Recently, the ATWC implemented a new microcomputer system which is used for both automatic and interactive earthquake processing, and for disseminating critical information to the Tsunami Warning System recipients.Real-time seismic wave form data from 23 short-period and 9 long-period sites in Alaska, the lower 48 States, and Hawaii, are continually computer-monitored for the occurrence of an earthquake. Once detected from the short-period wave form data, pre- and post-earthquake data are displayed on a graphics terminal along with an indicator to identify the time of the onset of theP waves (P-picks). TheP-picks can easily be changed during or after data collection via a mouse. Magnitudes (M
b
,M
l
,M
B
,M
S
) are automatically computed from appropriate short- and long-period wave form data concurrently with the above processing. A second graphics terminal displays cycle-by-cycle long-period wave form data that was used to compute an earthquake'sM
B
andM
S
magnitudes.An earthquake's parametric data and other information are available and printed within tens of seconds after theP wave arrivals are recorded at the first 5 sites, then 7 sites, 9 sites, and a final parametric computation using all collected data. Three video display monitors are used for displaying the parameters, procedural aids, and a map showing the epicenter. Additionally, selected event parameters are immediately transmitted by VHF radio to alphanumeric beepers which are carried by standby duty personnel during those times that the Center is not manned.Using a dedicated video display terminal and printer, the interactive system can use data and parameters resulting from the automatic processes for concurrent parameter recomputations; perform additional computations; disseminate critical information; and generate procedural aids for duty geophysicists to facilitate an earthquake/tsunami investigation. 相似文献
13.
《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》1989,9(4):149-158
Ground water professionals within public and private sectors use well records as data sources. Both the availability and the technical content of domestic well records in the 50 states are of interest to them. Well record availability is dependent on legal requirements, filing systems, databases, and storage places. Forty-six states have statewide regulations or other legal requirements for filing completion reports for domestic wells. Fifty-one agencies across the country maintain domestic well records. Filing systems involve location, chronology, date, or number information. Thirty-one of the 51 agencies maintain varying types of databases containing record information or data related to the records. Overall, records are kept in central offices in 43 states and in regional offices in three states.
The technical content of the records was evaluated for general, location, hydrogeology, and well construction information to assess the relative value of the records for use in national pesticide surveys. Technical information tabulated from the well records collected for this paper included nine items in a general category, 28 items in a well-construction category, eight items in a hydrogeology category, and six items in a location category. Items in the general and location categories identified the well location and ownership. Construction category items include those describing well-construction parameters such as grout, casing, and screen. Hydrogeology category items include static water level, aquifer media, and estimated yield. The three items always requested were owner's name, driller's name, and static water level. The three least-requested items, ranging from 16 percent to 10 percent, were packers, drilling fluid, and geologic formation. 相似文献
The technical content of the records was evaluated for general, location, hydrogeology, and well construction information to assess the relative value of the records for use in national pesticide surveys. Technical information tabulated from the well records collected for this paper included nine items in a general category, 28 items in a well-construction category, eight items in a hydrogeology category, and six items in a location category. Items in the general and location categories identified the well location and ownership. Construction category items include those describing well-construction parameters such as grout, casing, and screen. Hydrogeology category items include static water level, aquifer media, and estimated yield. The three items always requested were owner's name, driller's name, and static water level. The three least-requested items, ranging from 16 percent to 10 percent, were packers, drilling fluid, and geologic formation. 相似文献
14.
地震预警是人类进行灾害防御的科学前沿领域。本文基于德温特创新索引数据库中关于地震预警技术的专利数据,采用TDA和TI两大专利情报分析工具,结合二者的优势功能,对地震预警技术领域的专利数据展开多角度的专利情报分析,包括专利国家与地区分布、专利权人分布、专利申请逐年变化趋势等专利基本情况分析和专利矩阵、专利地图分析,以期为该领域的科研人员、政府部门和相关企业提供信息支撑。 相似文献
15.
One of the main purposes of the International Seismological Centre (ISC) is to collect, integrate and reprocess seismic bulletins provided by agencies around the world in order to produce the ISC Bulletin. This is regarded as the most comprehensive bulletin of the Earth’s seismicity, and its production is based on a unique cooperation in the seismological community that allows the ISC to complement the work of seismological agencies operating at global and/or local-regional scale. In addition, by using the seismic wave measurements provided by reporting agencies, the ISC computes, where possible, its own event locations and magnitudes such as short-period body wave m b and surface wave M S . Therefore, the ISC Bulletin contains the results of the reporting agencies as well as the ISC own solutions. Among the most used seismic event parameters listed in seismological bulletins, the event magnitude is of particular importance for characterizing a seismic event. The selection of a magnitude value (or multiple ones) for various research purposes or practical applications is not always a straightforward task for users of the ISC Bulletin and related products since a multitude of magnitude types is currently computed by seismological agencies (sometimes using different standards for the same magnitude type). Here, we describe a scheme that we intend to implement in routine ISC operations to mark the preferred magnitudes in order to help ISC users in the selection of events with magnitudes of their interest. 相似文献
16.
GERALD K. MOORE 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):477-485
Abstract Remote sensing is the use of electromagnetic energy to measure the physical properties of distant objects. It includes photography and geophysical surveying as well as newer techniques that use other parts of the electromagnetic spectrum. The history of remote sensing begins with photography. The origin of other types of remote sensing can be traced to World War II, with the development of radar, sonar, and thermal infrared detection systems. Since the 1960s, sensors have been designed to operate in virtually all of the electromagnetic spectrum. Today a wide variety of remote sensing instruments are available for use in hydrological studies; satellite data, such as Skylab photographs and Landsat images are particularly suitable for regional problems and studies. Planned future satellites will provide a ground resolution of 10–80 m. Remote sensing is currently used for hydrological applications in most countries of the world. The range of applications includes groundwater exploration determination of physical water quality, snowfield mapping, flood-inundation delineation, and making inventories of irrigated land. The use of remote sensing commonly results in considerable hydrological information at minimal cost. This information can be used to speed-up the development of water resources, to improve management practices, and to monitor environmental problems. 相似文献
17.
Hitoshi Tanaka Kosuke Kayane Mohammad Bagus Adityawan Min Roh Mohammad Farid 《Ocean Dynamics》2014,64(9):1319-1332
The relations of river morphology and tsunami propagation in rivers were studied at several rivers in the Tohoku region during The Great Chilean Tsunami of 2010 and The Great East Japan Tsunami of 2011. It was found that river mouth morphological features play an important role in the intrusion of low magnitude tsunamis in which the geological and geographical conditions are an important factor. Nevertheless, the effects of these features were not found in the case of an extreme tsunami wave. As the wave enters the river, the propagation depends on other factors. It was found that the intrusion distance correlates well to the riverbed slope. The measurements of water level and riverbed slope were analyzed to propose an empirical method for estimating the damping coefficient for the tsunami propagation in rivers based on the tsunami of 2011. The proposed empirical method was used to approximate the length of the tsunami intrusion into a river by assuming that the furthest distance is given for the ratio of local tsunami wave height to the tsunami wave height at the river entrance of 0.05 (5 %). The estimated intrusion length from the proposed method in this study shows a good comparison with measurement data. 相似文献
18.
Observations and Impacts from the 2010 Chilean and 2011 Japanese Tsunamis in California (USA) 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Rick I. Wilson Amanda R. Admire Jose C. Borrero Lori A. Dengler Mark R. Legg Patrick Lynett Timothy P. McCrink Kevin M. Miller Andy Ritchie Kara Sterling Paul M. Whitmore 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(6-8):1127-1147
The coast of California was significantly impacted by two recent teletsunami events, one originating off the coast of Chile on February 27, 2010 and the other off Japan on March 11, 2011. These tsunamis caused extensive inundation and damage along the coast of their respective source regions. For the 2010 tsunami, the NOAA West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center issued a state-wide Tsunami Advisory based on forecasted tsunami amplitudes ranging from 0.18 to 1.43 m with the highest amplitudes predicted for central and southern California. For the 2011 tsunami, a Tsunami Warning was issued north of Point Conception and a Tsunami Advisory south of that location, with forecasted amplitudes ranging from 0.3 to 2.5 m, the highest expected for Crescent City. Because both teletsunamis arrived during low tide, the potential for significant inundation of dry land was greatly reduced during both events. However, both events created rapid water-level fluctuations and strong currents within harbors and along beaches, causing extensive damage in a number of harbors and challenging emergency managers in coastal jurisdictions. Field personnel were deployed prior to each tsunami to observe and measure physical effects at the coast. Post-event survey teams and questionnaires were used to gather information from both a physical effects and emergency response perspective. During the 2010 tsunami, a maximum tsunami amplitude of 1.2 m was observed at Pismo Beach, and over $3-million worth of damage to boats and docks occurred in nearly a dozen harbors, most significantly in Santa Cruz, Ventura, Mission Bay, and northern Shelter Island in San Diego Bay. During the 2011 tsunami, the maximum amplitude was measured at 2.47 m in Crescent City Harbor with over $50-million in damage to two dozen harbors. Those most significantly affected were Crescent City, Noyo River, Santa Cruz, Moss Landing, and southern Shelter Island. During both events, people on docks and near the ocean became at risk to injury with one fatality occurring during the 2011 tsunami at the mouth of the Klamath River. Evaluations of maximum forecasted tsunami amplitudes indicate that the average percent error was 38 and 28 % for the 2010 and 2011 events, respectively. Due to these recent events, the California tsunami program is developing products that will help: (1) the maritime community better understand tsunami hazards within their harbors, as well as if and where boats should go offshore to be safe, and (2) emergency managers develop evacuation plans for relatively small “Warning” level events where extensive evacuation is not required. Because tsunami-induced currents were responsible for most of the damage in these two events, modeled current velocity estimates should be incorporated into future forecast products from the warning centers. 相似文献
19.
A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Western Australia 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
David Burbidge Phil R. Cummins Richard Mleczko Hong Kie Thio 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(11-12):2059-2088
The occurrence of the Indian Ocean Tsunami on 26 December, 2004 has raised concern about the difficulty in determining appropriate tsunami mitigation measures in Australia, due to the lack of information on the tsunami threat. A first step in the development of such measures is a tsunami hazard assessment, which gives an indication of which areas of coastline are most likely to experience tsunamis, and how likely such events are. Here we present the results of a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Western Australia (WA). Compared to other parts of Australia, the WA coastline experiences a relatively high frequency of tsunami occurrence. This hazard is due to earthquakes along the Sunda Arc, south of Indonesia. Our work shows that large earthquakes offshore of Java and Sumba are likely to be a greater threat to WA than those offshore of Sumatra or elsewhere in Indonesia. A magnitude 9 earthquake offshore of the Indonesian islands of Java or Sumba has the potential to significantly impact a large part of the West Australian coastline. The level of hazard varies along the coast, but is highest along the coast from Carnarvon to Dampier. Tsunamis generated by other sources (e.g., large intra-plate events, volcanoes, landslides and asteroids) were not considered in this study. 相似文献
20.
Predicting dry‐season flows with a monthly rainfall–runoff model: Performance for gauged and ungauged catchments 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Hydrologic models are useful to understand the effects of climate and land‐use changes on dry‐season flows. In practice, there is often a trade‐off between simplicity and accuracy, especially when resources for catchment management are scarce. Here, we evaluated the performance of a monthly rainfall–runoff model (dynamic water balance model, DWBM) for dry‐season flow prediction under climate and land‐use change. Using different methods with decreasing amounts of catchment information to set the four model parameters, we predicted dry‐season flow for 89 Australian catchments and verified model performance with an independent dataset of 641 catchments in the United States. For the Australian catchments, model performance without catchment information (other than climate forcing) was fair; it increased significantly as the information to infer the four model parameters increased. Regressions to infer model parameters from catchment characteristics did not hold for catchments in the United States, meaning that a new calibration effort was needed to increase model performance there. Recognizing the interest in relative change for practical applications, we also examined how DWBM could be used to simulate a change in dry‐season flow following land‐use change. We compared results with and without calibration data and showed that predictions of changes in dry‐season flow were robust with respect to uncertainty in model parameters. Our analyses confirm that climate is a strong driver of dry‐season flow and that parsimonious models such as DWBM have useful management applications: predicting seasonal flow under various climate forcings when calibration data are available and providing estimates of the relative effect of land use on seasonal flow for ungauged catchments. 相似文献