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1.
本文基于中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学国家重点实验室(LASG/IAP)发展的气候系统模式FGOALS_gl对近百年气温变化的模拟,讨论了自然变率和人为因素对20世纪全球变暖的相对贡献.数值试验结果表明,在自然和人为因子的共同强迫作用下,耦合模式能够合理再现20世纪全球平均气温随时间的演变;仅在自然因子作用下,模式不能再现1970年以后的全球变暖.自然因素对20世纪第一次变暖的作用是显著的,但温室气体是20世纪后期变暖的主要原因.在这一定性结论基础上,进一步对近百年变化中自然和人为因素的相对贡献做定量的归因分析,结果表明,除赤道中东太平洋和北大西洋外,人为因素对近百年的增暖起决定性作用.对全球、半球及大陆尺度而言,外强迫可以解释平均气温变化的70%以上,而内部变率贡献较小;但对于区域尺度而言,多数地区内部变率的贡献大于外强迫,区域尺度气温变化的机制较全球、半球尺度要复杂.对中国地区而言,20世纪早期的气温变化受自然变率影响,但20世纪后期的变暖主要是温室气体增加的结果.中国东部气温变化的空间分布表明,自然因素对近50年及近百年中国地区的变暖趋势贡献较小.在自然和人为因子共同作用下,模式能够再现近50年中国东部气温变化冬春两季增暖的特征、但没有模拟出夏季长江中下游地区及淮河流域的降温趋势;自然因子试验的结果表明,太阳活动对该区域的变冷有贡献,但模式无法再现该地区气温的季节变化特征. 相似文献
2.
Predicting dry‐season flows with a monthly rainfall–runoff model: Performance for gauged and ungauged catchments 
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下载免费PDF全文 Hydrologic models are useful to understand the effects of climate and land‐use changes on dry‐season flows. In practice, there is often a trade‐off between simplicity and accuracy, especially when resources for catchment management are scarce. Here, we evaluated the performance of a monthly rainfall–runoff model (dynamic water balance model, DWBM) for dry‐season flow prediction under climate and land‐use change. Using different methods with decreasing amounts of catchment information to set the four model parameters, we predicted dry‐season flow for 89 Australian catchments and verified model performance with an independent dataset of 641 catchments in the United States. For the Australian catchments, model performance without catchment information (other than climate forcing) was fair; it increased significantly as the information to infer the four model parameters increased. Regressions to infer model parameters from catchment characteristics did not hold for catchments in the United States, meaning that a new calibration effort was needed to increase model performance there. Recognizing the interest in relative change for practical applications, we also examined how DWBM could be used to simulate a change in dry‐season flow following land‐use change. We compared results with and without calibration data and showed that predictions of changes in dry‐season flow were robust with respect to uncertainty in model parameters. Our analyses confirm that climate is a strong driver of dry‐season flow and that parsimonious models such as DWBM have useful management applications: predicting seasonal flow under various climate forcings when calibration data are available and providing estimates of the relative effect of land use on seasonal flow for ungauged catchments. 相似文献
3.
古生态记录揭示的长江中下游太白湖生态系统稳态转换过程 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
长江中下游浅水湖泊在过去百年内受到强烈的人类活动影响,生态系统状态发生显著的变化,服务功能逐渐丧失.为了更科学有效地管理浅水湖泊,当前迫切需要了解湖泊的生态系统转变过程.以长江中下游典型富营养化浅水湖泊太白湖为例,结合历史资料和监测数据,基于铅铯同位素重建年代序列,利用粒度、地化指标和沉积物中硅藻群落的时间序列数据,对太白湖过去百年间生态系统转变进行分析.基于T检验的STARS法检测硅藻群落的结果显示,有2个稳态转换分别发生在1950s末和1990s末.1950s末太白湖硅藻群落代表的生态系统状态发生了显著突变,这主要归因于由于建闸筑坝造成的水文条件和营养条件的改变;1990s期间的湖泊生态系统整体转变则是由长期营养输入和渔业活动加强导致的生态系统弹性损失引起的.讨论了不同阶段太白湖生态系统主要要素间反馈机制在水文条件改变和营养富集影响下的变化,加深了对人类活动干扰下太白湖生态系统结构变化过程的理解,为建立浅水湖泊系统动力学模型提供基础. 相似文献
4.
抚仙湖有近210亿m3的优质淡水资源,具有重要战略价值,但是近年来出现水质退化的现象.沉水植被是湖泊生态系统功能维持的重要生物门类,其演变过程能反映和影响整个生态系统的变化,目前还缺乏对抚仙湖沉水植被长期连续地观测记录.本文基于Landsat遥感数据分析了抚仙湖北部沉水植被面积的动态变化,结合气候变化和水质水文要素分析发现：抚仙湖北部湖区沉水植物在1987—2020年间存在先减少后增加的变化趋势;1987—1995年,沉水植物分布面积约占北部湖区面积的1.64%;1996—2010年北部湖区沉水植被分布面积缩减,湖泊处于高水位低营养状态,水位上升是此时期沉水植物面积减少的主要原因;2011—2020年,水位降低,营养增加,营养和水位的共同作用导致抚仙湖北部湖区沉水植物面积显著增加.沉水植物覆盖度变化伴随着沉水植被以苦草为优势种群转为以穗花狐尾藻为优势种群,沉水植被结构转向耐污染性更强的属种.通过抚仙湖北部湖区沉水植被发育与营养、水位等驱动因子的关系分析,建议现阶段需要严格限制入湖氮磷排放,强化水生植被的长期动态监测,构建水量、水质、水生态一体化监测体系,并开展抚仙湖生态系统演变的模拟和预测,防止抚仙湖生态系统出现突变,以维持抚仙湖生态系统功能多样性. 相似文献
5.
不同时间尺度青海湖沉积物总有机碳对气候变化的敏感性 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
湖泊沉积物总有机碳（TOC）含量通常作为表征流域和湖泊生产力的指标,在亚洲季风区也常常被当作夏季风的代用指标,被广泛应用于气候与环境变化研究.本文梳理了过去千年、全新世以及冰期-间冰期时间尺度上青海湖沉积物TOC的变化特征,并探讨了其指示气候变化的敏感性与有效性.结果表明,过去千年青海湖沉积物TOC含量与区域暖季温度和降水表现出较为一致的周期性波动.通过对比全新世区域夏季温度、基于孢粉的降水定量重建结果,以及湖泊水位、风沙活动反映的湿度状况等,发现不能简单地将青海湖沉积物TOC含量或沉积通量作为夏季风强度或者季风降水强度的代用指标.青海湖沉积物TOC含量在冰期和间冰期表现出巨大的差异,指示了冰期-间冰期时间尺度上较大的温度与降水变幅.因此,不同地域条件及不同时间尺度下,湖泊沉积物TOC对气候变化的敏感性不同,将湖泊沉积物TOC含量作为亚洲夏季风的代用指标需要特别谨慎,特别是在高寒气候区. 相似文献
6.
《Limnologica》2015
Lake water level regimes are influenced by climate, hydrology and land use. Intensive land use has led to a decline in lake levels in many regions, with direct impacts on lake hydrology, ecology and ecosystem services. This study examined the role of climate and river flow regime in controlling lake regimes using three different lakes with different hydraulic characteristics (volume-inflow ratio, CIR). The regime changes in the lakes were determined for five different river inflows and five different climate patterns (hot-arid, tropical, moderate, cold-arid, cold-wet), giving 75 different combinations of governing factors in lake hydrology. The input data were scaled to unify them for lake comparisons. By considering the historical lake volume fluctuations, the duration (number of months) of lake volume in different ‘wetness’ regimes from ‘dry’ to ‘wet’ was used to develop a new index for lake regime characterisation, ‘Degree of Lake Wetness’ (DLW). DLW is presented as two indices: DLW1, providing a measure of lake filling percentage based on observed values and lake geometry, and DLW2, providing an index for lake regimes based on historical fluctuation patterns. These indices were used to classify lake types based on their historical time series for variable climate and river inflow. The lake response time to changes in hydrology or climate was evaluated. Both DLW1 and DLW2 were sensitive to climate and hydrological changes. The results showed that lake level in high CIR systems depends on climate, whereas in systems with low CIR it depends more on river regime. 相似文献
7.
《Advances in water resources》2005,28(9):910-916
Increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration not only affects climate variables such as precipitation and air temperature, but also affects intrinsic ecosystem physiological properties such as bulk stomatal conductance and intercellular CO2 concentration. De-convolving these two effects remains uncertain in biosphere–atmosphere water and carbon cycling. Using a simplified analytical net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) model, tested with recently collected flux measurements in a humid grassland ecosystem in Ireland, we assess how much projected climate shifts affect net canopy photosynthesis (A) without physiological adjustments and contrast those findings with published field data on physiological adjustments for several grassland ecosystems. Our analysis suggests that the intrinsic grassland ecosystem physiological adjustment of A is about 45 times more important than the resulting climatic forcing shifts from the IS92a scenario (and a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration). Also, our analysis shows that increase in precipitation results in concomitant decrease in the two climate variables—net radiation and vapor pressure deficit, and these decreases have opposite (and almost canceling) effects on A. Implications to afforestation policy and future experimental efforts to quantify the carbon sink from humid grassland ecosystems are also discussed. 相似文献
8.
L. A. Rukhovets G. P. Astrakhantsev T. R. Minina N. A. Petrova V. N. Poloskov 《Water Resources》2006,33(3):338-352
The effect of potential climate changes on the ecosystem of Lake Ladoga at different levels of anthropogenic load is studied using mathematical models. The Lake Ladoga year-round circulation corresponding to potential climate changes in the lake catchment area is reproduced. The year-round regime of functioning of the lake ecosystem is reproduced using ecosystem models. The potential changes in the lake ecosystem due to changes in the phosphorus load within the limits observed in 1961–1983 are found to be more essential than those due to prognostic changes in climate. 相似文献
9.
南疆博斯腾湖末次冰消期新仙女木事件的记录 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
通过对ＺＫ２孔多环境代用指标的综合分析,重建了４５００年来鄱阳湖湖口地区古环境历史。研究表明：４５００ａＢＰ以来,鄱阳湖湖口地区经历了多次冷暖,干湿交替。 相似文献
10.
近百年来长江中下游地区的浅水湖泊经历了气候变化及日益增强的人类扰动,造成了普遍的湖泊富营养化、水动力条件和水生生态系统的状态转变,水体的生态服务功能明显退化.枝角类作为一种重要的水生生物,敏感地响应于湖泊及其流域的环境变化,但目前对亚热带湖泊中的枝角类亚化石的环境指示意义,与其它古生态指标如硅藻、摇蚊等对环境变化的响应差异尚未明确.因此,本文以浅水湖泊太白湖为研究对象,结合流域历史资料和监测数据,基于沉积岩芯中枝角类群落过去百年来的期演化序列,重建了近百年来太白湖的历史环境演变过程及机制.对比硅藻及摇蚊的群落演化特征,探讨了多门类古生态指标对环境变化的响应差异.本文重点讨论了枝角类对湖泊鱼类产量指示意义及利用枝角类亚化石来重建历史环境的应用前景及不足. 相似文献
11.
近百年来亚洲中部内陆湖泊演变及其原因分析 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
南疆博斯腾湖湖相沉积物碳酸盐稳定同位素,孢粉及地化元素含量的波动揭示了于１１．０￣１０．０ｋａＢＰ期间的相对冷湿的环境特征,这次变冷事件在年代上可与末次冰消期的新仙女木气候突然变冷事件相对应,虽然目前还无法圆满解释此事件的成因机制,但此事件在极端干昌的南疆博斯腾湖湖相沉积中的发现,无疑对深入认识此事件发生的全球性以及探讨其成因机制具有重要意义。 相似文献
12.
Stephen Anthony Mitchell 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2013,75(1):95-112
The larger wetlands of Sub-Saharan Africa, cover 2,072,775 km2 (9.01 %) of the landmass. This paper reviews the major threats, including climate change, to these wetlands, a number of which lie in semi-arid regions. Climate change predictions are that the arid or semi-arid regions of Africa in the latitudes around the Tropics of Capricorn and Cancer will become drier. The future of wetlands is allied to human well-being, and the effects of climate change cannot be de-linked from human activities occurring in and around wetlands. The high productivity of wetlands supports substantial populations of poor people dependent on ecosystem services for at least part of their livelihood. This is particularly so in the semi-arid Sahel in the North and equivalent latitudes in the south, which are seen as vulnerable to climate change largely due to high levels of poverty and low adaptive capacity. While sustainable ecosystem management is a long-term goal, survival is more immediate to poor people depending on ecosystem services for their livelihoods. Population increase and a decrease in the resource base due to predicted decreased rainfall will lead to over exploitation of the resource base. Certain engineering interventions redistribute ecosystem services to the benefit of those upstream or away from the river system. Governance systems play a key role in the sustainable management of resources. Breakdown of governance systems through civil war is seen as a driver of poverty and a major cause of breakdown in resource conservation, increasing the dependence of poor people on ecosystems. 相似文献
13.
《国际泥沙研究》2021,36(6):756-769
Coastal lagoons are particularly vulnerable to climate change, in particular, Sea Level Rise (SLR) due to their shallowness. Lake Burullus provides a variety of socio-economic services as the second largest coastal lagoon in Egypt. Recently, it has experienced significant ecological deterioration. Thus, its ecosystem is fragile in the face of anthropogenic induced changes. The main objective of the current study is to investigate the climate change impacts on characteristics of Lake Burullus. A depth averaged hydro-ecological modeling system, MIKE21, was applied to develop an eco - hydrodynamic model for the lake. The developed model was calibrated and verified for two successive years: July 2011–June 2012 and July 2012–June 2013. The model simulations exhibited good agreement with the measurements during the calibration and verification processes. Six different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were compared, using six different statistical metrics, to determine the most accurate one for the study area. The required meteorological input, including surface air temperature, precipitation, and evaporation were derived from the selected RCM. The meteorological input was extracted for two different years in the 21 st century considering one Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Report. Regional SLR projections for the Mediterranean Sea for the selected RCP scenario and the two studied years were obtained. These future climate change estimates were used to modify the validated model of the lake. A sensitivity analysis was applied to assess effect of future climatic conditions and SLR, separately. The results revealed that the lake water depths will increase and it will be warmer and more saline. Significant spatial variability of the studied parameters under climate change forcing is expected. Consequently, climate change is going to restrict the lake's ability to preserve the present-day species. An urgent management plan involving adaptation works, should be implemented to reduce such potential species losses in Egyptian lagoons. 相似文献
14.
The Camamu Bay (CMB) is located on the narrowest shelf along the South American coastline and close to the formation of two major Western Boundary Currents (WBC), the Brazil/North Brazil Current (BC/NBC). These WBC flow close to the shelf break/slope region and are expected to interact with the shelf currents due to the narrowness of the shelf. The shelf circulation is investigated in terms of current variability based on an original data set covering the 2002-2003 austral summer and the 2003 austral autumn. The Results show that the currents at the shelf are mainly wind driven, experiencing a complete reversal between seasons due to a similar change in the wind field. Currents at the inner-shelf have a polarized nature, with the alongshore velocity mostly driven by forcings at the sub-inertial frequency band and the cross-shore velocity mainly supra-inertially forced, with the tidal currents playing an important role at this direction. The contribution of the forcing mechanisms at the mid-shelf changes between seasons. During the summer, forcings in the two frequency bands are important to drive the currents with a similar contribution of the tidal currents. On the other hand, during the autumn season, the alongshore velocity is mostly driven by sub-inertial forcings and tidally driven currents still remain important in both directions. Moreover, during the autumn when the stratification is weaker, the response of the shelf currents to the wind forcing presents a barotropic signature. The meso-scale processes related to the WBC flowing at the shelf/slope region also affect the circulation within the shelf, which contribute to cause significant current reversals during the autumn season. Currents at the shelf-estuary connection are clearly supra-inertially forced with the tidal currents playing a key role in the generation of the along-channel velocities. The sub-inertial forcings at this location act mainly to drive the weak ebb currents which were highly correlated with both local and remote wind forcing during the summer season. 相似文献
15.
由于湖泊生态问题日益突出,湖泊生态系统安全状态已经成为人们关注的热点问题,了解湖泊水生态系统的状况并根据湖泊生态系统健康状况开展精准治理和生态修复与保护尤为重要。本文基于对鄱阳湖及其流域生态环境的长期监测数据和资料收集,采用综合指标体系法,从物理形态、水文、水环境、水域生态、湿地生态和社会服务6个方面构建了鄱阳湖生态系统健康评估的指标体系,主要涵盖了湖泊口门状况、“五河”入湖径流变异程度、入湖河流水质达标率等26个指标。依据设置的阈值等级得到鄱阳湖生态系统健康评价各层次健康状况等级,通过对各湖泊生态系统各指标得分进行加权计算,得出生态系统健康评估准则层和目标层的得分,最终对鄱阳湖生态系统健康进行了客观的评价。结果表明,构建的湖泊生态系统健康评价体系针对性强、科学全面、具有可操作性,可为鄱阳湖及类似通江湖泊的生态系统健康评价提供案例和方法借鉴。评价结果表明鄱阳湖健康体征状况目标层得分为73.45分,评价结果为亚健康,鄱阳湖水生态系统健康主要受泄流能力、水文节律变化、富营养化程度和物种多样性的影响。最后根据鄱阳湖的水生态系统健康评分等级探讨了鄱阳湖水生态系统中亟需解决的问题,针对性地提出了... 相似文献
16.
Merja H. Schlüter Agostino Merico Karen H. Wiltshire Wulf Greve Hans von Storch 《Ocean Dynamics》2008,58(3-4):169-186
We compiled homogeneous long-term time series comprising 39 variables representing the German Bight and for the period 1975–2004. A diverse set of variables was selected to cover multiple trophic levels and different environmental forcing thus to examine long-term changes in this coastal region. Previous studies have hypothesised the presence of regime shifts in observations extending over the entire North Sea. Focusing on a smaller spatial scale, and closer to the coast, we investigated the major modes of variability in the compiled time series using principal component analysis. The results obtained confirm a previously identified regime shift in the North Sea in 1987/1988 and suggest that the German Bight is dominantly characterised by long-term modes of variability. In the German Bight, the shift of 1987/1988 is driven primarily by temperature, Gulf Stream index, frost days and Secchi depth. Changes in some of the ecosystem variables (plankton and fish) appear to be related to changes in these driving variables. In particular, we documented strong positive correlations between the long-term trend showed by the first principal component and herring, Noctiluca scintillans, and, to a lesser extent, Pleurobrachia pileus. Two gadoids, namely cod and saithe, showed negative correlations with the observed long-term mode of variability. Changes in the sum of five small calanoid copepods were, however, less marked. Phosphate and ammonium exhibited a decreasing trend over the last 30 years. Diatoms and Calanus helgolandicus did not show evidence of changes in concert to this trend. Specific analyses of the data divided into three different subsets (biological, climatic and chemical) characterise the climate of the German Bight as highly dynamic also on short timescales (a few years) as compared to much smoother biological and chemical components. The dynamic regime of the German Bight taken together with a low correlation between the major mode of variability and phytoplankton and zooplankton data suggests that the lower trophic levels of this ecosystem are remarkably resilient. 相似文献
17.
洞庭湖近30a水位时空演变特征及驱动因素分析 总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0
洞庭湖地处北亚热带季风湿润气候区,水情时空变化尤为明显.为了探明洞庭湖水位时空演变特征,以洞庭湖6个水位站(城陵矶、鹿角、营田、杨柳潭、南咀、小河咀)、出入湖流量("三口"总入湖流量、"四水"总入湖流量、城陵矶出湖流量)和长江干流流量(宜昌、螺山)等1985-2014年逐日数据为基础,通过构建泰森多边形计算湖泊水位,运用Morlet小波分析、层次聚类分析和地统计理论研究湖泊水位的周期性变化规律及空间分布格局和自相关性.研究结果表明:洞庭湖水位变化具有典型的季节性,且年际变化具有28和22 a的多时间尺度特征;水位空间分布格局呈现出小河咀、南咀、杨柳潭(Group 1)以及城陵矶、鹿角、营田(Group 2)两种聚类,且在不同水文季节的空间自相关性依次表现为丰水期退水期涨水期枯水期.通过建立两类水位在不同水文季节与径流量的多元逐步回归模型揭示了洞庭湖水位时空演变的驱动因素,其中Group 1水位演变主要受长江干流水文情势的影响,Group 2水位演变由出入湖径流量和长江干流径流量共同作用,并随着不同水文季节江湖关系的改变以及湖泊自身水力联系的变化而变化.研究结果对于科学认识洞庭湖水位的时空演变规律以及湖泊生态系统保护和水资源的规划、管理与调控具有重要意义. 相似文献
18.
湖泊热力结构不仅影响湖泊内部生态环境,而且与区域气象和气候系统相互影响,但目前对湖泊垂直温度的观测研究仍非常匮乏.本研究基于青藏高原拉昂错连续的湖温和气象观测,分析了小时尺度和日尺度热力分层规律和混合层深度的变化特征.结果表明:拉昂错为冷多次完全混合型湖泊;湖表温度8月达到最大值,湖面敞水区和沿岸的湖表温度季节震荡相同,但存在一定的空间差异;与空气温度相比,湖表温度变幅小,降温更慢,峰值滞后约1个月.同时发现,拉昂错混合层深度变化较为规律,辐射和风速是影响湖泊混合层深度的主要外界因子.探明真实的高原湖泊分层规律,有利于提高湖泊模拟能力,为优化湖泊参数化方案提供参考. 相似文献
19.
受气候变化和人类活动影响,湖泊水生态系统及其服务功能发生改变,研究湖泊水生态系统生产总值动态变化及其影响因素,对于维护湖泊健康生命、实现湖泊功能永续利用具有重要意义。选择位于气候敏感区和生态脆弱区的青海湖作为研究对象,根据青海湖水生态系统特征及当前保护状况,筛选调节服务及文化服务2类8个评估指标,构建湖泊水生态系统生产总值指标体系,核算2010—2020年青海湖水生态系统生产总值,分析其变化趋势及主要影响因素。结果表明,2010—2020年青海湖水生态系统生产总值总体呈波动上升趋势,变化范围为6903.47亿~7848.55亿元;调节服务是青海湖水生态系统主要的服务类型,占比高达91%。近十年,气候调节和水质净化价值有所减少,其他服务功能价值均呈增加趋势。水源涵养价值增加最多,增长760.70亿元;气候调节价值下降最多,减少658.59亿元。偏最小二乘回归分析表明,水温、水位是影响青海湖水生态系统生产总值的主要因素。气候变化影响下,水温升高引起初级生产力增加及鱼类数量增长,同时近年来水体矿化度下降有利于水生生物生长,提高了固碳释氧和物种保育价值。水位与水面面积增加引起水源涵养、洪水调蓄价值增长;蒸发量减少导致气候调节价值下降。人类合理开发利用与保护作用下,物种保育、休闲旅游和科研教育价值均得到了显著提升。本研究量化了青海湖水生态系统对人类的贡献,为变化环境下退化水生态系统修复、生态保护措施效果定量评价提供了科学依据。建议定期核算青海湖水生态系统生产总值,跟踪评估气候变化与人类活动共同影响下青海湖水生态系统变化,对维持青藏高原东北部生态安全具有重要作用。 相似文献
20.
我国西部内陆型晚冰期环境特征的湖相沉积记录 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
根据新疆东部巴里坤湖沉积地层及孢粉,地球化学元素和有机质含量波动特征,同时结合年代的测定,本文对由其所揭示的晚冰期中的几次冰阶与间冰阶交替出现的内陆型环境演变行征进行了研究,指出此阶段中环境演变仍具有相对冷湿与晚干交替的匹配模式。广泛的区域性对比表明,它的出现具有全球一致性,同时又具有区域性差异特征,这种非线性的气候变化对于研究气候突变事件的发生机制具有重要意义。 相似文献