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1.
积云对流参数化方案对热带大气季节内振荡模拟的影响 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室（LASG）的大气环流谱模式的最新版本SAMIL2.2.3系统分析了积云对流参数化方案对热带大气季节内振荡（ISO）模拟的影响.结果表明该模式的三种积云对流参数化方案都能模拟出热带地区气候平均季节内振荡（CISO）时空演变的基本特征;其中Tiedtke方案相比于Manabe方案和Zhang-McFarlane方案,模拟出的CISO与观测更为接近.而SAMIL2.2.3模式对ISO年际变化部分（TISO）的模拟结果显示尽管SAMIL2.2.3相对于之前的版本对Tiedtke方案和Zhang-McFarlane方案针对不同问题做了必要调整,但三种积云参数化方案中只有Zhang-McFarlane方案能够模拟出27～50天TISO模态的东传特征.另外,SAMIL2.2.3与其较早版本SAMIL2.08中的Manabe方案完全相同,物理过程的其他部分如辐射方案和气溶胶条件有所调整,但仅后者能模拟出100E以西热带27～50天TISO模态的东传特征.因此,模式发展过程中物理参数化方案的改进并非在每一方面上都产生正面效果.动力框架和物理过程,以及不同物理过程之间的协调发展是改进模式的重要途径. 相似文献
2.
本文利用中尺度模式Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) 3.1版本及National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)分析资料,就2003年6月下旬我国江淮及南方地区的强降水事件, 以24 h短期天气模拟的方式,研究了模式中四个不同陆面方案对降水模拟的影响.结果表明,此次暴雨事件模拟对不同陆面方案是比较敏感的,模拟区域内雨量级别越高,不同方案的TS评分差异就越大,较大范围雨量可存在30%的差异,四种方案的暴雨中心值可存在100%～150%的较大差别;不同陆面方案还导致了模拟平均感热通量及潜热通量的系统性差异,这些差异的分布具有地域特点;陆面方案通过两种机理对模拟降水产生重要影响,即主要影响地表蒸发量,以及主要影响低层环流及水汽辐合,从而分别影响模拟的较大范围降水(如,平均约7%、最大约30%的较大范围雨量差异)及包含模拟降水中心的较小范围暴雨(如,方案间暴雨中心雨量可存在100%～150%的较大差别).可见,不同陆面过程可从不同空间尺度、不同程度上影响暴雨天气,改进陆面方案可以提高WRF模式对暴雨的模拟能力. 相似文献
3.
21世纪开始，随着天气气候模式和超算机计算能力的发展，加之气象精细化预报服务需求日益增长，气象数值模拟迈入“百米级”发展阶段.本文系统回顾并归纳了近20年来百米级气象数值模式研发和模拟应用两方面的研究进展.重点关注百米级大气模式资料同化和浅积云对流、云微物理、边界层和城市陆面等物理参数化方案的研发进展，以及模式对天气系统、边界层特征、降水、雾和城市化效应的模拟研究.基于百米级模式的研发和应用现状，指出该研究领域的五个重点发展方向，包括有限域高分辨率资料同化方法、云和边界层作用反馈、百米级城市陆面模式、人工智能方法对参数化方案的改进、模式分辨率与计算资源的平衡配置，以期为系统开展百米级气象数值模拟研究与应用提供参考. 相似文献
4.
本文在中国气象科学研究院(CAMS)双参数云微物理方案的基础上,增加气溶胶粒子的活化过程,改进原方案中的水汽混合比、云水混合比及云滴数浓度的预报方程,实现对各种水成物(包括云水)的混合比和数浓度的预报.此外,改进后的CAMS云方案被成功耦合到了WRF v3.1中尺度模式.本文利用耦合模式对2009年4月23~24日发生在我国北方地区的一次降水天气过程进行了模拟,将新方案的模拟结果与WRF自带的3个微物理方案进行了比较.结果显示,新方案能够合理地描述地面降水特征,其模拟的雨带分布范围与实测接近,降水中心的强度和位置优于其他3个方案.新方案模拟的云滴数浓度与WDM6方案基本一致,表明加入的气溶胶活化过程是合理的.新方案模拟的其他水成物粒子数浓度与Morrison方案相比有时会有量级的差别,说明粒子数浓度的模拟目前还存在着很大的不确定性,这也是云微物理模式进一步发展的难点. 相似文献
5.
物理过程参数化方案的不确定性是目前气候系统模式不确定性的重要来源之一.随着模式内在复杂度攀升,模拟场景多样化,参数化方案中基于先验的和人工的物理参数选取方法已经逐步成为限制模式模拟能力的瓶颈之一.为此,本文设计并提出了初选与寻优相结合的两步法参数优化方案.初选阶段用全因子采样方法对不确定参数空间进行初始敏感性分析,估计最优解所在区域;寻优步采用单纯型下山法,基于初选阶段确定的参数组合快速寻优.将两步法应用于中国科学院大气物理研究所(英文缩写:IAP)大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(英文缩写:LASG)格点大气模式第2版:GAMIL2,选取其深对流方案和云量方案中的3个重要参数开展寻优,优化以综合减小模式降水、风场、温度、湿度、位势高度以及辐射通量的误差为目标.这些变量用GAMIL2标准版本标准化后形成单一的目标.结果显示,优化后的目标函数值比GAMIL2标准版本改进了7.5%.机理分析表明,调优后的参数优化了大气中的水汽凝结作用,进而减少模式的湿度偏差,改进云量的模拟效果;同时水汽凝结作用的变化通过大气内部动力和热力相互作用及响应影响温度、位势高度和风场的模拟. 相似文献
6.
本文利用高分辨率中尺度WRF模式,通过改变边界层参数化方案进行多组试验,评估该模式对美国北部森林地区边界层结构的模拟能力,同时比较了五种不同边界层参数化方案模拟得出的边界层热力和动力结构.结果表明：除个别方案外,配合不同边界层方案的WRF模式都能成功模拟出白天对流边界层强湍流混合特征和夜间稳定边界层内强逆温、逆湿和低空急流等热力和动力结构.非局地YSU、ACM2方案在白天表现出强的湍流混合和卷夹,相比于局地MYJ、UW方案,模拟的对流边界层温度更高、湿度更低、混合层高度更高、感热通量更大,更接近实际观测,这表明在不稳定层结下考虑非局地大涡输送更为合理,但局地方案在风速和风向的预报上存在一定优势.TEMF方案得到的白天局地湍流混合强度为所有方案中最弱,混合层难以发展,无法体现对流边界层内气象要素垂直分布均匀的特点.对于夜间稳定边界层的模拟,不同参数化方案之间的差异较小,但是YSU方案在一定程度上高估了机械湍流,导致局地湍流混合偏强,从而影响了其对稳定边界层的模拟能力. 相似文献
7.
本文利用中尺度数值模式WRF对2003年7月4-5日淮河流域特大暴雨过程进行了数值模拟,并利用高时空分辨率模拟结果资料,提取了暴雨中心区大气重力波频率、周期、水平波长、垂直波长、水平相速和群速等特征参数,分析了暴雨过程中重力波参数随时间的演变特征.结果表明,对此次暴雨强降水过程影响较大的重力波主要是发展的中 α 尺度波和中 β 尺度波,暴雨后期随着重力波的频散,周期和水平波长有减小趋势,频率有增大趋势.非降水区的重力波参数特征和降水中心区有明显不同,大气中小振幅的中 α 尺度和中 β 尺度重力波是否发展和暴雨强降水的发生关系密切. 相似文献
8.
长江流域梅雨锋暴雨过程的中尺度结构个例分析 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
利用外场试验资料, 用双多普勒雷达技术和径向速度场分析方法, 研究了2002年7月22~23日发生在长江流域一次暴雨过程的中尺度结构动力特征和演变过程. 结果表明, 在西南-东北取向1000 km长的暴雨雨带中, 存在有许多尺度在20~50 km大小的β或γ中尺度强回波带或回波团, 在长江中游, 混合性强降水雨带在长200 km以上的低空切变线上形成; 在切变线南侧的低空西南急流和北侧的偏东气流共同作用下形成上升气流, 对流云得到发展, 切变线低空风场的扰动、中尺度切变和β中尺度辐合是造成对流发展的原因; 新回波常常在老回波右后侧生成, 并移向西南气流区, 从而得到充足的水汽, 这种回波发展旺盛, 持续时间长. β中尺度对流系统常常伴有尺度更小的中尺度涡旋和中尺度辐合等γ中尺度结构, 这些γ中尺度结构在强对流的发展过程中也起了很重要的作用. 相似文献
9.
边界层参数化方案及海气耦合对WRF模拟东亚夏季风的影响 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
区域气候模式的边界层参数化方案很大程度上影响着陆地-海洋-大气间水汽、动量及热量的交换,该方案的不确定性会给模式结果带来明显误差.本文基于WRF区域气候模式中四种常用的边界层参数化方案(YSU,ACM2,BouLac和MYJ)分别对东亚夏季风进行模拟研究,分析了不同的边界层方案对东亚夏季风环流及降水模拟的影响.结果表明,局地湍流动能方案BouLac和MYJ对东亚夏季风的模拟结果相对于非局地闭合方案YSU和ACM2更接近于观测,前者能更好的模拟出中国东部中低空西南风气流和西太平洋副热带高压.对于东亚夏季风降水,无论是空间分布还是季节内演变,BouLac和MYJ方案都要明显优于YSU和ACM2.此外,通过对比YSU和BouLac两种方案的模拟结果,发现边界层方案对东亚夏季风的模拟在海洋区域的影响更为显著.造成不同方案模拟差异的主要原因是非局地方案YSU和ACM2的边界层垂直混合偏强,使得海表向上输送的潜热通量明显偏强,对流更活跃,导致降水偏多以及相应季风环流的异常偏差.进一步研究指出缺少海气反馈过程使得WRF模式由边界层方案引起的模拟误差在海洋区域更为突出,引入海气耦合可以减小海表热通量误差并明显改善东亚夏季风的模拟结果. 相似文献
10.
针对长江中下游中尺度地形特点以及暴雨过程发生发展期间风垂直切变的主要观测特征,设计了一系列中尺度地形的三维理想数值试验,分析了干大气地形流和重力波特征,探讨了条件不稳定湿大气地形对流降水的模态分布,在此基础上研究了圆形、直线风垂直切变和切变厚度对中尺度地形对流降水强度和模态分布的影响.结果发现:在 Fr≈1的干大气条件下,气流遇到地形后分支、绕流和爬升现象同时存在,地形激发的重力波在水平和垂直方向上传播,其在迎风坡、背风坡、地形上游和下游的振幅不同,并组织出不同强度的垂直上升运动.在Fr > 1的条件不稳定湿大气下,地形对流降水主要存在三种模态,即迎风坡和背风坡准静止对流降水以及地形下游移动性对流降水,地形对流降水的形成与重力波在低层组织的上升运动密切相关.风垂直切变对地形对流降水的强度和模态分布有重要作用,其中圆形风垂直切变(风随高度旋转)不仅影响地形下游对流降水系统的移动方向,而且影响迎风坡和背风坡山脚处对流降水中心的分布和强度;直线风垂直切变(风随高度无旋转)主要影响地形对流降水的移动速度和强度.风随高度自下而上顺(逆)时针旋转,地形对流系统向下游传播时向右(左)偏移.风垂直切变主要通过影响地形重力波的结构和传播以及对流系统的形成、移动方向和速度,来影响地形对流降水的模态分布,其中对流层中低层的风垂直切变对地形对流降水强度和模态分布有重要影响. 相似文献
11.
利用WRF模式探讨了两种近地层参数化方案(MM5方案和Eta方案)对2013年5月31日海南岛一次海风降水过程模拟的影响.结果表明,改变近地层方案可对当地的海风环流及相应的降水特征产生明显影响,两个试验最重要的差别主要体现在模拟的海风及降水的强度差异上,与MM5试验相比,Eta试验的低层海风及辐合程度更强,相应的降水也更强,表现为岛屿总格点降水量、大于10mm的降水区域、最大格点降水三个量化指标均比较大.通过分析两种方案在不同降水阶段的地表通量及近地层变量场,发现Eta试验模拟的降水前环境场更有利于对流的启动,随着午后热力湍流的不断增强,将MM5方案替换为Eta方案可使近地层感热通量、潜热通量分别增加约3.57%、5.65%,动量通量减小约10.79%,感热、潜热的增加使Eta试验中近地层大气的加热加湿作用更加明显,相应的低层大气不稳定度更高,再配合海风锋前较强的辐合上升运动,局地不稳定能量的释放变的更加容易,因此降水强度更大. 相似文献
12.
An Experiment Using the High Resolution Eta and WRF Models to Forecast Heavy Precipitation over India 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Y. V. Rama Rao H. R. Hatwar Ahmad Kamal Salah Y. Sudhakar 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1593-1615
In the present study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Eta models, recent heavy rainfall events that occurred
(i) over parts of Maharastra during 26 to 27 July, 2005, (ii) over coastal Tamilnadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during
24 to 28 October, 2005, and (iii) the tropical cyclone of 30 September to 3 October, 2004/Monsoon Depression of 2 to 5 October
2004, that developed during the withdrawal phase of the southwest monsoon season of 2004 have been investigated. Also sensitivity
experiments have been conducted with the WRF model to test the impact of microphysical and cumulus parameterization schemes
in capturing the extreme weather events. The results show that the WRF model with the microphysical process and cumulus parameterization
schemes of Ferrier et al. and Betts-Miller-Janjic was able to capture the heavy rainfall events better than the other schemes. It is also observed
that the WRF model was able to predict mesoscale rainfall more realistically in comparison to the Eta model of the same resolution. 相似文献
13.
Numerical Simulation of Andhra Severe Cyclone (2003): Model Sensitivity to the Boundary Layer and Convection Parameterization 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
C. V. Srinivas R. Venkatesan D. V. Bhaskar Rao D. Hari Prasad 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1465-1487
The Andhra severe cyclonic storm (2003) is simulated to study its evolution, structure, intensity and movement using the Penn
State/NCAR non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model MM5. The model is used with three interactive nested domains at 81,
27 and 9 km resolutions covering the Bay of Bengal and adjoining Indian Peninsula. The performance of the Planetary Boundary
Layer (PBL) and convective parameterization on the simulated features of the cyclone is studied by conducting sensitivity
experiments. Results indicate that while the boundary layer processes play a significant role in determining both the intensity
and movement, the convective processes especially control the movement of the model storm. The Mellor-Yamada scheme is found
to yield the most intensive cyclone. While the combination of Mellor-Yamada (MY) PBL and Kain-Fritsch 2 (KF2) convection schemes
gives the most intensive storm, the MRF PBL with KF2 convection scheme produces the best simulation in terms of intensity
and track. Results of the simulation with the combination of MRF scheme for PBL and KF2 for convection show the evolution
and major features of a mature tropical storm. The model has very nearly simulated the intensity of the storm though slightly
overpredicted. Simulated core vertical temperature structure, winds at different heights, vertical winds in and around the
core, vorticity and divergence fields at the lower and upper levels—all support the characteristics of a mature storm. The
model storm has moved towards the west of the observed track during the development phase although the location of the storm
in the initial and final phases agreed with the observations. The simulated rainfall distribution associated with the storm
agreed reasonably with observations. 相似文献
14.
Sensitivity of Mesoscale Model Forecast During a Satellite Launch to Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in MM5 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The identification of the model discrepancy and skill is crucial when a forecast is issued. The characterization of the model
errors for different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) provides more confidence on the model outputs and qualifies which
CPSs are to be used for better forecasts. Cases of good/bad skill scores can be isolated and clustered into weather systems
to identify the atmospheric structures that cause difficulties to the forecasts. The objective of this work is to study the
sensitivity of weather forecast, produced using the PSU-NCAR Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) during the launch of an Indian
satellite on 5th May, 2005, to the way in which convective processes are parameterized in the model. The real-time MM5 simulations
were made for providing the weather conditions near the launch station Sriharikota (SHAR). A total of 10 simulations (each
of 48 h) for the period 25th April to 04th May, 2005 over the Indian region and surrounding oceans were made using different
CPSs. The 24 h and 48 h model predicted wind, temperature and moisture fields for different CPSs, namely the Kuo, Grell, Kain-Fritsch
and Betts-Miller, are statistically evaluated by calculating parameters such as mean bias, root-mean-squares error (RMSE),
and correlation coefficients by comparison with radiosonde observation. The performance of the different CPSs, in simulating
the area of rainfall is evaluated by calculating bias scores (BSs) and equitable threat scores (ETSs). In order to compute
BSs and ETSs the model predicted rainfall is compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observed rainfall. It
was observed that model simulated wind and temperature fields by all the CPSs are in reasonable agreement with that of radiosonde
observation. The RMSE of wind speed, temperature and relative humidity do not show significant differences among the four
CPSs. Temperature and relative humidity were overestimated by all the CPSs, while wind speed is underestimated, except in
the upper levels. The model predicted moisture fields by all CPSs show substantial disagreement when compared with observation.
Grell scheme outperforms the other CPSs in simulating wind speed, temperature and relative humidity, particularly in the upper
levels, which implies that representing entrainment/detrainment in the cloud column may not necessarily be a beneficial assumption
in tropical atmospheres. It is observed that MM5 overestimates the area of light precipitation, while the area of heavy precipitation
is underestimated. The least predictive skill shown by Kuo for light and moderate precipitation asserts that this scheme is
more suitable for larger grid scale (>30 km). In the predictive skill for the area of light precipitation the Betts-Miller
scheme has a clear edge over the other CPSs. The evaluation of the MM5 model for different CPSs conducted during this study
is only for a particular synoptic situation. More detailed studies however, are required to assess the forecast skill of the
CPSs for different synoptic situations. 相似文献
15.
This study examines the short-range forecast accuracy of the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric
Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) as applied to the July 2006 episode of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the model's sensitivity
to the choice of different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs), namely Betts-Miller, Grell (GR) and Kain-Fritsch (KF).
The results showed that MM5 day 1 (0–24 h prediction) and day 2 (24–48 h prediction) forecasts using all three CPSs overpredicted
monsoon rainfall over the Indian landmass, with the larger overprediction seen in the day 2 forecasts. Among the CPSs, the
rainfall distribution over the Indian landmass was better simulated in forecasts using the KF scheme. The KF scheme showed
better skill in predicting the area of rainfall for most of the rainfall thresholds. The root mean square error (RMSE) in
day 1 and day 2 rainfall forecasts using different CPSs showed that rainfall simulated using the KF scheme agreed better with
the observed rainfall. As compared to other CPSs, simulation using the GR scheme showed larger RMSE in wind speed prediction
at 850 and 200 hPa over the Indian landmass. MM5 24-h temperature forecasts at 850 hPa with all the CPSs showed a warm bias
of the order of 1 K over the Indian landmass and the bias doubled in 48-h model forecasts. The mean error in temperature prediction
at 850 hPa over the Indian region using the KF scheme was comparatively smaller for all the forecast intervals. The model
with all the CPSs overpredicted humidity at 850 hPa. The improved prediction by MM5 with the KF scheme is well complemented
by the smaller error shown by the KF scheme in vertical distribution of heat and mean moist static energy in the lower troposphere.
In this study, the KF scheme which explicitly resolve the downdrafts in the cloud column tended to produce more realistic
precipitation forecasts as compared to other schemes which did not explicitly incorporate downdraft effects. This is an important
result especially given that the area covered by monsoon-precipitating systems is largely from stratiform-type clouds which
are associated with strong downdrafts in the lower levels. This result is useful for improving the treatment of cumulus convection
in numerical models over the ISM region. 相似文献
16.
A regional climate model (RegCM3) nested within ERA40 re-analyzed data is used to investigate the climate effects of land use change over China. Two 15-year simulations (1987―2001), one with current land use and the other with potential vegetation cover without human intervention, are conducted for a domain encompassing China. The climate impacts of land use change are assessed from the difference between the two simulations. Results show that the current land use (modified by anthropogenic ac- tivities) influences local climate as simulated by the model through the reinforcement of the monsoon circulation in both the winter and summer seasons and through changes of the surface energy budget. In winter, land use change leads to reduced precipitation and decreased surface air temperature south of the Yangtze River, and increased precipitation north of the Yangtze River. Land use change signifi- cantly affects summer climate in southern China, yielding increased precipitation over the region, de- creased temperature along the Yangtze River and increased temperature in the South China area (south-end of China). In summer, a reduction of precipitation over northern China and a temperature rise over Northwest China are also simulated. Both daily maximum and minimum temperatures are affected in the simulations. In general, the current land use in China leads to enhanced mean annual precipitation and decreased annual temperature over south China along with decreased precipitation over North China. 相似文献
17.
S. K. Deb H. C. Upadhyaya O. P. Sharma J. Y. Grandpeix 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1667-1681
A new analytical formulation of entrainment and detrainment in the Tiedtke's mass flux cumulus parameterization is presented
here in which cloud height is one of the key parameters. The proposed analytical profiles of entrainment and detrainment are
tested in GCM for long-term simulation and are evaluated in the light of the results from the original Tiedtke's scheme and
another mass flux scheme due to Emanuel. The variations of Indian monsoon rainfall have been examined with these schemes in
a general circulation model. Evaluation of the simulated rainfall against observations is done by empirical orthogonal function
(EOF) analysis for the Indian Monsoon region. It is noted that the spatial and temporal variations of the all-India monsoon
rainfall are sensitive to the formulation of entrainment and detrainment in a mass flux scheme, and that the new formulation
can effectively represent the increased dilution with height in deep clouds. 相似文献
18.
This paper investigates the sensitivity of the numerical simulations of a near equatorial Typhoon Vamei (2001) to various
planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes in the Pennsylvania State University (PSU)/National Centre for Atmospheric
Research (NCAR) non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5). The numerical simulations are conducted on two domains at 45 and 15 km
grids nested in a one-way fashion. Four different PBL parameterization schemes including the Blackadar (BLK) scheme, the Burk–Thompson
(BURKT) scheme, the NCEP Eta model scheme and the NCEP medium range forecast (MRF) model scheme are investigated. Results
indicate that the intensity and propagation track of the simulated near equatorial typhoon system is not very sensitive to
the different PBL treatments. The simulated minimum central pressures and the maximum surface wind speeds differ by only 5–6 hPa
and 6–8 ms−1, respectively. Larger variations between the simulations occur during the weakening phase of the typhoon system. While all
schemes simulated the typhoon with reasonable accuracy, the ETA scheme produces the strongest storm intensity with the largest
heat exchanges over the marine environment and the highest warm moisture air content in the PBL around the core of the storm. 相似文献
19.
Jing Guo Hua Chen Chong-Yu Xu Shenglian Guo Jiali Guo 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2012,26(2):157-176
Many impact studies require climate change information at a finer resolution than that provided by general circulation models
(GCMs). Therefore the outputs from GCMs have to be downscaled to obtain the finer resolution climate change scenarios. In
this study, an automated statistical downscaling (ASD) regression-based approach is proposed for predicting the daily precipitation
of 138 main meteorological stations in the Yangtze River basin for 2010–2099 by statistical downscaling of the outputs of
general circulation model (HadCM3) under A2 and B2 scenarios. After that, the spatial–temporal changes of the amount and the
extremes of predicted precipitation in the Yangtze River basin are investigated by Mann–Kendall trend test and spatial interpolation.
The results showed that: (1) the amount and the change pattern of precipitation could be reasonably simulated by ASD; (2)
the predicted annual precipitation will decrease in all sub-catchments during 2020s, while increase in all sub-catchments
of the Yangtze River Basin during 2050s and during 2080s, respectively, under A2 scenario. However, they have mix-trend in
each sub-catchment of Yangtze River basin during 2020s, but increase in all sub-catchments during 2050s and 2080s, except
for Hanjiang River region during 2080s, as far as B2 scenario is concerned; and (3) the significant increasing trend of the
precipitation intensity and maximum precipitation are mainly occurred in the northwest upper part and the middle part of the
Yangtze River basin for the whole year and summer under both climate change scenarios and the middle of 2040–2060 can be regarded
as the starting point for pattern change of precipitation maxima. 相似文献