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1.
The operational prediction of climatic variables in monthly-to-seasonal scales has been issued by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) through Climate Forecast System model (CFSv1) since 2004. After incorporating significant changes, a new version of this model (CFSv2) was released in 2011. The present study is based on the comparative evaluation of performances of CFSv2 and CFSv1 for the southwest monsoon season (June-July-August-September, JJAS) over India with May initial condition during 1982–2009. It was observed that CFSv2 has improved over CFSv1 in simulating the observed monsoon rainfall climatology and inter annual variability. The movement of the cell of Walker circulation in years of excessive and deficient rainfall is better captured in CFSv2, as well. The observed teleconnection pattern between ISMR-sea surface temperature (SST) is also better captured in CFSv2. The overall results suggest that the changes incorporated in CFSv1 through the development of CFSv2 have resulted in an improved prediction of ISMR.21  相似文献   

2.
A 10‐km gridded snow water equivalent (SWE) dataset is developed over the Saint‐Maurice River basin region in southern Québec from kriging of observed snow survey data for evaluation of SWE products. The gridded SWE dataset covers 1980–2014 and is based on manual gravimetric snow surveys carried out on February 1, March 1, March 15, April 1, and April 15 of each snow season, which captures the annual maximum SWE (SWEM) with a mean interpolation error of ±19%. The dataset is used to evaluate SWEM from a range of sources including satellite retrievals, reanalyses, Canadian regional climate models, and the Canadian Meteorological Centre operational snow depth analysis. We also evaluate a number of solid precipitation datasets to determine their contribution to systematic errors in estimated SWEM. None of the evaluated datasets is able to provide estimates of SWEM that are within operational requirements of ±15% error, and insufficient solid precipitation is determined to be one of the main reasons. The Climate System Forecast Reanalysis is the only dataset where snowfall is sufficiently large to generate SWEM values comparable to observations. Inconsistencies in precipitation are also found to have a strong impact on year‐to‐year variability in SWEM dataset performance and spread. Version 3.6.1 of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme land surface scheme driven with ERA‐Interim output downscaled by Version 5.0.1 of the Canadian Regional Climate Model was the best physically based model at explaining the observed spatial and temporal variability in SWEM (root‐mean‐square error [RMSE] = 33%) and has potential for lower error with adjusted precipitation. Operational snow products relying on the real‐time snow depth observing network performed poorly due to a lack of real‐time data and the strong local scale variability of point snow depth observations. The results underscore the need for more effort to be invested in improving solid precipitation estimates for use in snow hydrology applications.  相似文献   

3.
Seasonal changes over 2 years (2004–2006) in soil moisture content (θv) of frozen alpine frost meadow soils of the Qinghai‐Tibet plateau permafrost region under three different levels of vegetation cover were investigated. Vegetation cover and air temperature changes had significant effects (synergistic effect) on θv and its distribution in the soil profile. During periods of soil freezing or thawing, the less the vegetation cover, the quicker the temperature drop or rise of soil water, and the shorter the duration of the soil water freeze–thaw response in the active soil layer. Under 30% and 65% vegetation cover the amplitude of variation in θv during the freezing period was 20–26% greater than that under 93% cover, while during the thawing period, it was 1·5‐ to 40·5‐fold greater. The freezing temperature of the surface soil layer, fTs, was 1·6 °C lower under 30% vegetation cover than under 93% vegetation cover. Changes in vegetation cover of the alpine frost meadow affected θv and its distribution, as well as the relationship between θv and soil temperature (Ts). As vegetation cover decreased, soil water circulation in the active layer increased, and the response to temperature of the water distribution across the soil profile was heightened. The quantity of transitional soil phase water at different depths significantly increased as vegetation cover decreased. The influence of vegetation cover and soil temperature distribution led to a relatively dry soil layer in the middle of the profile (0·70–0·80 m) under high vegetation cover. Alpine meadow θv and its pattern of distribution in the permafrost region were the result of the synergistic effect of air temperature and vegetation cover. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
Here, we compared grid precipitation data — Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA‐Interim (WFDEI) data — with Brazilian Weather Bureau (INMET) and Brazilian Water Agency (ANA) rain gauge data (n = 2027) for the period 1980–2010 in order to evaluate which grid data set better represents precipitation, and is thus more suitable for hydrological modelling of Brazilian water resources. We found that WFDEI outperformed CFSR according to three statistical indicators. We then applied and interpolated a simple bias correction to further improve WFDEI data before we used these data to model river discharge of the Tocantins catchment with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Calibration (validation in parentheses; weighted averages of all gauges) had satisfactory statistical metrics: p‐factor = 0.52 (0.47); r‐factor = 0.84 (0.99); R2 = 0.78 (0.71); bR2 = 0.68 (0.47); NS = 0.70 (0.66); Pbias = ?4.5 (4.0). Finally, the calibrated SWAT model was used to assess the spatial distribution of the catchment's water resources. Annual green water flow (evapotranspiration) increased from the south‐east (640–840 mm yr?1) to north‐west (1140–1440 mm) of the Tocantins catchment, while green water storage (soil water content) increased from south (330–1070 mm) to north (2180–3290 mm). Blue water (water yield) had a less clear pattern, with lower values in the south and the central borders of the catchment (20–560 mm) and higher values along the central axis and the north (920–1460 mm). Our analysis suggested that WFDEI was an accurate representation of Brazilian precipitation. For large catchments, we therefore recommend the use of WFDEI instead of sparse and often missing rain gauge data in modelling Brazilian water resources. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
The Noah model is a land surface model of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. It has been widely used in regional coupled weather and climate models (i.e. Weather Research and Forecasting Model, Eta Mesoscale Model) and global coupled weather and climate models (i.e. National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System, Climate Forecast System). Therefore, its continued improvement and development are keys to enhancing our weather and climate forecast ability and water and energy flux simulation accuracy. North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 1 (NLDAS‐1) experiments indicated that the Noah model exhibited substantial bias in latent heat flux, total runoff and land skin temperature during the warm season, and such bias can significantly affect coupled weather and climate models. This paper presents a study to improve the Noah model by adding model parameterization processes such as including seasonal factor on leaf area index and root distribution and selecting optimal model parameters. We compared simulated latent heat flux, mean annual runoff and land skin temperature from the Noah control and test versions with measured latent heat flux, land surface skin temperature, mean annual runoff and satellite‐retrieved land surface skin temperature. The results show that the test version significantly reduces biases in latent heat, total runoff and land skin temperature simulation. The test version has been used for the NLDAS phase 2 (NLDAS‐2) to produce 30‐year water flux, energy flux and state variable products to support the US drought monitor of National Integrated Drought Information System. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
To investigate the water circulation of eastern Qinghai‐Tibet plateau during rainy season, water samples of precipitation, throughfall, fog, soil, litter and xylem were collected for stable isotope analysis. The results showed that precipitation mainly originated as a result of the East Asian Monsoon, and the secondarily evaporated water from subalpine ecosystem was an important part in local atmospheric water cycle. The deuterium excess of rainfall in the alpine meadow was evidently higher than the precipitation in the Dengsheng stations. This suggests that a large part of precipitation in alpine meadow was derived from secondarily evaporated water and the mean contribution was 39·57%, about 3·65 mm produced shortly after rain events. Through the contrast of delta (d)‐excess value in different water samples, it could be concluded that the water in subalpine shrubland and transpiration of subalpine dark coniferous forest were the main source of secondarily evaporated water that transferred to alpine meadow. Hence, the precipitation on the east Qinghai‐Tibet plateau was doubly controlled by monsoon and local water circulation in alpine ecosystems. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
The accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) is essential for assessing water availability and requirements of regional-scale terrestrial ecosystems, and for understanding the hydrological cycle in alpine ecosystems. In this study, two large-scale weighing lysimeters were employed to estimate the magnitude and dynamics of actual evapotranspiration in a humid alpine Kobresia meadow from January 2018 to December 2019 on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). The results showed that daily ETa averaged 2.24 ± 0.10 mm day −1 throughout the study period, with values of 3.89 ± 0.14 and 0.81 ± 0.06 mm day−1 during the growing season and non-growing season, respectively. The cumulative ETa during the study period was 937.39 mm, exceeding precipitation (684.20 mm) received at the site during the same period by 37%, suggesting that almost all precipitation in the lysimeters was returned to the atmosphere by evapotranspiration. Furthermore, the cumulative ETa (805.04 mm) was almost equal to the maximum potential evapotranspiration estimated by the FAO-56 reference evapotranspiration (ET0) (801.94 mm) during the growing season, but the cumulative ETa (132.25 mm) was 113.72% less than the minimum equilibrium ETeq) (282.86 mm) during the non-growing season due to the limited surface moisture in frozen soil. The crop coefficient (Kc) also showed a distinct seasonal pattern, with a monthly average of 1.01 during the growing season. Structural equation model (SEM) and boosted regression tree (BRT) show that net radiation and air temperature were the most important factors affecting daily ETa during the whole study period and growing season, but that non-growing season ETa was dominated by soil water content and net radiation. The daily Kc was dominated by net radiation. Furthermore, both ETa and Kc were also affected by aboveground biomass.  相似文献   

8.
Impacts of permafrost changes on alpine ecosystem in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  
Alpine cold ecosystem with permafrost environment is quite sensitive to climatic changes and the changes in permafrost can significantly affect the alpine ecosystem. The vegetation coverage, grassland biomass and soil nutrient and texture are selected to indicate the regime of alpine cold ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The interactions between alpine ecosystem and permafrost were investigated with the depth of active layer, permafrost thickness and mean annual ground temperature (MAGTs). Based on the statistics model of GPTR for MAGTs and annual air temperatures, an analysis method was developed to analyze the impacts of permafrost changes on the alpine ecosystems. Under the climate change and human engineering activities, the permafrost change and its impacts on alpine ecosystems in the permafrost region between the Kunlun Mountains and the Tanggula Range of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are studied in this paper. The results showed that the per- mafrost changes have a different influence on different alpine ecosystems. With the increase in the thickness of active layer, the vegetation cover and biomass of the alpine cold meadow exhibit a significant conic reduction, the soil organic matter content of the alpine cold meadow ecosystem shows an exponential decrease, and the surface soil materials become coarse and gravelly. The alpine cold steppe ecosystem, however, seems to have a relatively weak relation to the permafrost environment. Those relationships resulted in the fact that the distribution area of alpine cold meadow decreased by 7.98% and alpine cold swamp decreased by 28.11% under the permafrost environment degradation during recent 15 years. In the future 50 years the alpine cold meadow ecosystems in different geomorphologic units may have different responses to the changes of the permafrost under different climate warming conditions, among them the alpine cold meadow and swamp ecosystem located in the low mountain and plateau area will have a relatively serious degradation. Furthermore, from the angles of grassland coverage and biological production the variation characteristics of high-cold eco- systems in different representative regions and different geomorphologic units under different climatic conditions were quantitatively assessed. In the future, adopting effective measures to protect permafrost is of vital importance to maintaining the stability of permafrost engineering and alpine cold eco- systems in the plateau.  相似文献   

9.
Global warming has leaded to permafrost degradation, with potential impacts on the runoff generation processes of permafrost influenced alpine meadow hillslope. Stable isotopes have the potential to trace the complex runoff generation processes. In this study, precipitation, hillslope surface and subsurface runoff, stream water, and mobile soil water (MSW) at different hillslope positions and depths were collected during the summer rainfall period to analyse the major flow pathway based on stable isotopic signatures. The results indicated that (a) compared with precipitation, the δ2H values of MSW showed little temporal variation but strong heterogeneity with enriched isotopic ratios at lower hillslope positions and in deeper soil layers. (b) The δ2H values of middle-slope surface runoff and shallow subsurface flow were similar to those of precipitation and MSW of the same soil layer, respectively. (c) Middle-slope shallow subsurface flow was the major flow pathway of the permafrost influenced alpine meadow hillslope, which turned into surface runoff at the riparian zone before contributing to the streamflow. (d) The slight variation of δ2H values in stream water was shown to be related to mixing processes of new water (precipitation, 2%) and old water (middle-slope shallow subsurface flow, 98%) in the highly transmissive shallow thawed soil layers. It was inferred that supra-permafrost water levels would be lowered to a less conductive, deeper soil layer under further warming and thawing permafrost, which would result in a declined streamflow and delayed runoff peak. This study explained the “rapid mobilization of old water” paradox in permafrost influenced alpine meadow hillslope and improved our understanding of permafrost hillslope hydrology in alpine regions.  相似文献   

10.
High-quality soil moisture (SM) datasets are in great demand for climate, hydrology, and other fields, but detailed evaluation of SM products from various sources is scarce. Thus, using 670 SM stations worldwide, we evaluated and compared SM products from microwave remote sensing [Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) (C- and X-bands) and European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI)], land surface model [Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)], and reanalysis data [ECMWF Re-Analysis-Interim (ERA-Interim) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)] under different time scales and various climates and land covers. We find that: (a) ESA CCI and GLDAS have the closest values to the in situ SM on the annual scale, whereas others overestimate the SM; ERA-Interim (averaged R = 0.58) and ESA CCI (averaged R = 0.54) correlate best with the in situ data, while GLDAS performs worst. (b) Overall, the deviations of each product vary in seasons. ESA CCI and ERA-Interim products are closer to the in situ SM at seasonal scales, and AMSR-E and NCEP perform worst in December–February and June–August, respectively. (c) Except for NCEP and ERA-Interim, others can well reflect the intermonthly variation of the in situ SM. (d) Under various climates and land covers, AMSR-E products are less effective in cold climates, whereas GLDAS and NCEP products perform poorly in arid or temperate and dry climates. Moreover, the Bias and R of each SM product differ obviously under different forest types, especially the AMSR-E products. In summary, SM from ESA CCI is the best, followed by ERA-Interim product, and precipitation is an important auxiliary data for selecting high-quality SM stations and improving the accuracy of SM from GLDAS. These results can provide a reference for improving the accuracy of the above SM products.  相似文献   

11.
The atmospheric reanalysis datasets have been widely used to understand the variability of atmospheric water vapor on various temporal and spatial scales for climate change research. The difference among a variety of reanalysis datasets, however, causes the uncertainty of corresponding results. In this study, the climatology of atmospheric column-integrated water vapor for the period from 2000 to 2012 was compared among three latest third-generation atmospheric reanalyses including European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), while possible explanation on the difference between them was given. The results show that there are significant differences among three datasets in the multi-year global distribution, variation of interannual cycle, long-term trend and so on, though high similarity for principal mode describing the variability of water vapor. Over oceans, the characteristics of long-term CWV variability are similar, whereas the main discrepancy among three datasets is located around the equatorial regions of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the South Pacific Convergence Zone and warm cloud area, which is related with the difference between reanalysis models for the scheme of convective parameterization, the treatment of warm clouds, and the assimilation of satellite-based observations. Moreover, these CWV products are fairly consistent with observations (satellite-based retrievals) for oceans. On the other hand, there are systematic underestimations about 2.5 kg/m2 over lands for all three CWV datasets, compared with radiosonde observations. The difference between models to solve land-atmosphere interaction in complex environment, as well as the paucity in radiosonde observations, leads to significant water vapor gaps in the Amazon Basin of South America, central parts of Africa and some mountainous regions. These results would help better understand the climatology difference among various reanalysis datasets better, and more properly choose water vapor datasets for different research requirements.  相似文献   

12.
As an important biomarker, fatty acids(FAs) have been extensively used to trace the origin of organic matter in sediments and soils. However, studies of the distribution and abundance of FAs in alpine grassland soils are still rare, especially on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau(QTP), the highest plateau in the world, which contributes sediments to many large rivers in Asia. This study investigates the composition, distribution and source of FAs with increasing soil depths from 17 typical alpine grassland sites in the QTP. The most abundant FAs included the ubiquitous C16 FA and even-numbered long-chain FAs(C20–C30), indicating mixed inputs from microbial and higher plant sources. Source apportionment showed that higher plants were the dominant contributor of FAs(approximately 40%) in QTP soils. The abundance of FAs decreased with soil depth, with the highest value(1.08±0.09 mg/g C) at a 0–10 cm depth and the lowest value(0.46±0.12 mg/g C) at a 50–70 cm depth, due to much lower plant inputs into the deeper horizons. The total concentration of FAs was negatively correlated to the mean annual temperature(MAT; P0.05) and soil p H(P0.01), suggesting that the preservation of FAs was favored in low-MAT and low-p H soils on the QTP. The abundance of fresh C source FAs increased significantly with the mean annual precipitation(MAP; P0.05), indicating that high MAP facilitates the accumulation of fresh FAs in QTP soils. Other environmental parameters, such as the soil mineral content(aluminum and iron oxide), microbial community composition as well as litter quality and quantity, may also exert a strong control on the preservation of FAs in QTP soils and warrant further research to better understand the mechanisms responsible for the preservation of FAs in QTP soils.  相似文献   

13.
Studies on hydrological processes are often emphasized in resource and environmental studies. This paper identifies the hydrological processes in different landscape zones during the wet season based on the isotopic and hydrochemical analysis of glacier, snow, frozen soil, groundwater and other water sources in the headwater catchment of alpine cold regions. Hydrochemical tracers indicated that the chemical compositions of the water are typically characterized by: (1) Ca? HCO3 type in glacier snow zone, (2) Mg? Ca? SO4 type for surface runoff and Ca? Mg? HCO3 type for groundwater in alpine desert zone, (3) Ca? Mg? SO4 type for surface water and Ca? Mg? HCO3 type for groundwater in alpine shrub zone, and (4) Ca? Na? SO4 type in surface runoff in the alpine grassland zone. The End‐Members Mixing Analysis (EMMA) was employed for hydrograph separation. The results showed that the Mafengou River in the wet season was mainly recharged by groundwater in alpine cold desert zones and shrub zones (52%), which came from the infiltration and transformation of precipitation, thawed frozen soil water and glacier‐snow meltwater. Surface runoff in the glacier‐snow zone accounted for 11%, surface runoff in alpine cold desert zones and alpine shrub meadow zones accounted for 20%, thawed frozen soil water in alpine grassland zones accounted for 9% of recharge and precipitation directly into the river channel (8%). This study suggested that the whole catchment precipitation did not produce significant surface runoff directly, but mostly transformed into groundwater or interflow, and finally arrived in the river channel. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Correctly representing weather is critical to hydrological modelling, but scarce or poor quality observations can often compromise model accuracy. Reanalysis datasets may help to address this basic challenge. The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dataset provides continuous, globally available records, and CFSR data have produced satisfactory hydrological model performance in some temperate and monsoonal locations. However, the use of CFSR for hydrological modelling in tropical and semi‐tropical basins has not been adequately evaluated. Taking advantage of exceptionally high rainfall station density in the catchments of the Rio Grande de Loiza above San Juan, Puerto Rico, we compared model performance based on CFSR records with that based on publicly available weather stations in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN, n = 21) and on a dataset of rainfall records maintained by the United States Geological Survey Caribbean Water Science Center (USGS, n = 24). For an implementation of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with subbasins defined at 11 streamflow gages, uncalibrated measures of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) were >0 at 8 of 11 gages using USGS precipitation data for daily simulations over the period 1998–2012, but were <0 using GHCN weather station records (8 of 11) and CFSR reanalysis data (9 of 11). Autocalibration of individual SWAT models for each of the 11 basins against each of the available weather datasets yielded NSE values > 0 using all precipitation inputs, including CFSR. However, the ground weather station closest to the geographic basin centre produced the highest NSE values in only 5 of 11 cases. The spatially interpolated CFSR data performed as well or better than single ground observations made further than 20–30 km, and sometimes better than individual weather stations <10 km from the basin centroid. In addition to demonstrating the need to evaluate available weather inputs, this research reinforces the value of CFSR data as a means to supplement ground records and consistently determine a baseline for hydrologic model performance. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Soil water is an important limiting factor for restoring alpine meadows on the northern Tibetan Plateau. Field studies of soil‐water content (SWC), however, are rare due to the harsh environment, especially in a mesoscale alpine‐meadow ecosystem. The objective of this study was to assess the spatial variability of SWC and the temporal variation of the spatial variability in a typical alpine meadow using a geostatistical approach. SWC was measured using a neutron probe to a depth of 50 cm at 113 locations on 22 sampling occasions in a 33.5‐hm2 alpine meadow during the 2015 and 2016 growing seasons. Mean SWC in the study plot for the two growing seasons was 18.7, 14.0, 13.9, 14.3, and 14.8% for depths of 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 cm, respectively, and SWC was significantly larger at 10 cm than at other depths. SWC was negatively correlated with its spatial variability, and the spatial variability was higher when SWC was lower. Thirty‐three sampling locations in this study plot met the requirement of accuracy of the central limit theorem. A Gaussian model was the best fit for SWC semivariance at depths of 10, 20, and 30 cm, and the spatial structural ratio was between 0.997 and 1, indicating a strong spatial dependence of SWC. The sill and range fluctuated temporally, and the nugget and spatial structural ratio did not generally vary with time. The sill was significantly positively correlated with SWC and was initially stable and then tend to increase with SWC. The nugget, range, and spatial structure ratio, however, were not correlated with SWC. These results contribute to our understanding of SWC spatial distribution and variation in alpine meadows and provide basic empirical SWC data for mesoscale model simulations, optimizing sampling strategies and managing meadows on the Tibetan Plateau.  相似文献   

16.
Boreal mire landscapes are rich in soil carbon and significantly contribute to the carbon input of aquatic ecosystems. They are composed of different mesoscale ecohydrological subunits, whose individual contributions to the water and carbon export of mire catchments are not well understood. The spring snowmelt period is the major hydrological event in the annual water cycle of the boreal regions and strongly influences the carbon flux between the terrestrial and aquatic systems. The aim of this study was (1) to provide a conceptual understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the surface water chemistry along a swamp forest‐fen‐bog gradient during the snowmelt period, (2) to quantify the exported dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content in the runoff and (3) to identify the ecohydrological landscape unit that contributes most to DOC export during the snowmelt period in a heterogeneous mire complex in Northwest Russia. The highest DOC concentrations were detected in the swamp forest, and the lowest concentrations were observed at the treeless bog by the end of the snowmelt period (swamp forest: 37–43 mg l?1, bog: 13–17 mg l?1). During the spring snowmelt period, a significant amount (~1.7 g C m?2) of DOC was transferred by the ~74 mm of runoff from the catchment into the river. Variability in the thawing periods led to differences in the relative contributions of each ecohydrological zone to the carbon export measured at a stream channel draining the studied part of the mire complex. An increased understanding of the variation in DOC concentrations and contributions from the mesoscale ecohydrological subunits to carbon export can help to predict the potential regional loss of DOC based on land cover type under climate change. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
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18.
Satellite‐based and reanalysis quantitative precipitation estimates are attractive for hydrologic prediction or forecasting and reliable water resources management, especially for ungauged regions. This study evaluates three widely used global high‐resolution precipitation products [Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks‐Climate Data Record (PERSIANN‐CDR), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 Version 7 (TRMM 3B42V7), and National Centers for Environment Prediction‐Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP‐CFSR)] against gauge observations with seven statistical indices over two humid regions in China. Furthermore, the study investigates whether the three precipitation products can be reliably utilized as inputs in Soil and Water Assessment Tool, a semi‐distributed hydrological model, to simulate streamflows. Results show that the precipitation estimates derived from TRMM 3B42V7 outperform the other two products with the smallest errors and bias, and highest correlation at monthly scale, which is followed by PERSIANN‐CDR and NCEP‐CFSR in this rank. However, the superiority of TRMM 3B42V7 in errors, bias, and correlations is not warranted at daily scale. PERSIANN‐CDR and 3B42V7 present encouraging potential for streamflow prediction at daily and monthly scale respectively over the two humid regions, whilst the performance of NCEP‐CFSR for hydrological applications varies from basin to basin. Simulations forced with 3B42V7 are the best among the three precipitation products in capturing daily measured streamflows, whilst PERSIANN‐CDR‐driven simulations underestimate high streamflows and high streamflow simulations driven by NCEP‐CFSR mostly are overestimated significantly. In terms of extreme events analysis, PERSIANN‐CDR often underestimates the extreme precipitation, so do extreme streamflow simulations forced with it. NCEP‐CFSR performs just the reverse, compared with PERSIANN‐CDR. The performance pattern of TRMM 3B42V7 on extremes is not certain, with coexisting underestimation and overestimation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Glacial retreat and the thawing of permafrost due to climate warming have altered the hydrological cycle in cryospheric‐dominated watersheds. In this study, we analysed the impacts of climate change on the water budget for the upstream of the Shule River Basin on the northeast Tibetan Plateau. The results showed that temperature and precipitation increased significantly during 1957–2010 in the study area. The hydrological cycle in the study area has intensified and accelerated under recent climate change. The average increasing rate of discharge in the upstream of the Shule River Basin was 7.9 × 106 m3/year during 1957–2010. As the mean annual glacier mass balance lost ?62.4 mm/year, the impact of glacier discharge on river flow has increased, especially after the 2000s. The contribution of glacier melt to discharge was approximately 187.99 × 108 m3 or 33.4% of the total discharge over the study period. The results suggested that the impact of warming overcome the effect of precipitation increase on run‐off increase during the study period. The evapotranspiration (ET) increased during 1957–2010 with a rate of 13.4 mm/10 years. On the basis of water balance and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and the Global Land Data Assimilation System data, the total water storage change showed a decreasing trend, whereas groundwater increased dramatically after 2006. As permafrost has degraded under climate warming, surface water can infiltrate deep into the ground, thus changing both the watershed storage and the mechanisms of discharge generation. Both the change in terrestrial water storage and changes in groundwater have had a strong control on surface discharge in the upstream of the Shule River Basin. Future trends in run‐off are forecasted based on climate scenarios. It is suggested that the impact of warming will overcome the effect of precipitation increase on run‐off in the study area. Further studies such as this will improve understanding of water balance in cold high‐elevation regions.  相似文献   

20.
As a result of global warming induced permafrost degradation in recent decades, thermokarst lakes in the Qinghai–Tibet plateau (QTP) have been regulating local hydrological and ecological processes. Simulations with coupled moisture–heat numerical models in the Beiluhe basin (located in the hinterland of permafrost regions on the QTP) have provided insights into the interaction between groundwater flow and the freeze–thaw process. A total of 30 modified SUTRA scenarios were established to examine the effects of hydrodynamic forces, permeability, and climate on thermokarst lakes. The results indicate that the hydrodynamic condition variables regulate the permafrost degradation around the lakes. In case groundwater recharges to the lake, a low–temperature groundwater flow stimulates the expansion of the surrounding thawing regions through thermal convection. The thawing rate of the permafrost underlying the lake intensifies when groundwater is discharged from the lake. Under different permeability conditions, spatiotemporal variations in the active layer thickness significantly influence the occurrence of an open talik at the lake bottom. A warmer and wetter climate will inevitably lead to a sharp decrease in the upper limit of the surrounding permafrost, with a continual decrease in the duration of open talik events. Overall, our results underscore that comprehensive consideration of the relevant hydrologic processes is critical for improving the understanding of environmental and ecological changes in cold environments.  相似文献   

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