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1.
Reliability analysis of composite channels using first order approximation and Monte Carlo simulations 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
S. Adarsh M. Janga Reddy 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(2):477-487
Artificial open channels being costlier infrastructure, their design should ensure reliability along with optimality in project cost. This paper presents reliability analysis of composite channels, considering uncertainty associated with various design parameters such as friction factors, longitudinal slope, channel width, side slope, and flow depth. This study also considers uncertainties of watershed characteristics, rainfall intensity and drainage area to quantify the uncertainty of runoff. For uncertainty modeling, the advanced first order second moment method and Monte Carlo simulation are used and it is found that the results by both approaches show good agreement. Then, a reliability index that can be used to design a composite channel to convey design discharge for a specified risk or probability of failure is presented, and its sensitivity with different channel design parameters are analyzed. To validate the effectiveness of the present approach, the reliability values and safety factors for variable system loading scenario are obtained under static and dynamic environment. The sensitivity analysis shows that flow depth and bed width are the most influencing parameters that affect the safety factor and reliability. 相似文献
2.
利用2020年5月1—7日乌加河地震台、乌力吉地震台波形数据,应用噪声功率谱概率密度（PDF）方法,计算2个台站的台基噪声,分析了2种观察环境下的台基噪声特征及影响因素。结果显示,在小于0.1 Hz频段乌力吉地震台台基噪声值明显大于乌加河地震台,说明地震计在小于0.1 Hz频段受环境温度影响的特征较显著;在大于1 Hz频段2个台站台基噪声值均有台阶性升高频段,这是由在该频段台基噪声受人为活动影响所致。 相似文献
3.
Probabilistic-fuzzy health risk modeling 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Health risk analysis of multi-pathway exposure to contaminated water involves the use of mechanistic models that include many uncertain and highly variable parameters. Currently, the uncertainties in these models are treated using statistical approaches. However, not all uncertainties in data or model parameters are due to randomness. Other sources of imprecision that may lead to uncertainty include scarce or incomplete data, measurement error, data obtained from expert judgment, or subjective interpretation of available information. These kinds of uncertainties and also the non-random uncertainty cannot be treated solely by statistical methods. In this paper we propose the use of fuzzy set theory together with probability theory to incorporate uncertainties into the health risk analysis. We identify this approach as probabilistic-fuzzy risk assessment (PFRA). Based on the form of available information, fuzzy set theory, probability theory, or a combination of both can be used to incorporate parameter uncertainty and variability into mechanistic risk assessment models. In this study, tap water concentration is used as the source of contamination in the human exposure model. Ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact are considered as multiple exposure pathways. The tap water concentration of the contaminant and cancer potency factors for ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact are treated as fuzzy variables while the remaining model parameters are treated using probability density functions. Combined utilization of fuzzy and random variables produces membership functions of risk to individuals at different fractiles of risk as well as probability distributions of risk for various alpha-cut levels of the membership function. The proposed method provides a robust approach in evaluating human health risk to exposure when there is both uncertainty and variability in model parameters. PFRA allows utilization of certain types of information which have not been used directly in existing risk assessment methods. 相似文献
4.
桥梁作为交通中不可或缺的一部分,对其地震易损性进行研究具有现实意义。针对当前桥梁地震易损性分析方法存在准确性待提升的问题,提出基于模糊评定的钢筋混凝土桥梁地震易损性评估模型。以桥梁结构层次、材料层次及边界层几方面为主对桥梁评估过程中的不确定性参数进行分析。以分析结果为依据,考虑到桥梁损失是一个比较模糊的概念,引入模糊数学中的模糊评定方法对桥梁地震易损性进行评估。融合位移下桥梁支座损伤分析、能量下桥墩损伤分析、周期下桥梁结构整体损伤分析,构建可以反映钢筋混凝土桥梁由局部到整体的多层次模糊易损性评估模型。通过实验对所建模型进行验证,结果显示：在纵向只发生轻微破坏,且轻微破坏的概率较小,基本处于完好状态。而在横向,发生轻微破坏的概率较大,甚至还可能发生中等破坏。在地震作用下,桥梁破坏也基本以轻微破坏和中等破坏为主,严重破坏的概率很小。 相似文献
5.
The Bayesian probabilistic approach is proposed to estimate the process noise and measurement noise parameters for a Kalman filter. With state vectors and covariance matrices estimated by the Kalman filter, the likehood of the measurements can be constructed as a function of the process noise and measurement noise parameters. By maximizing the likelihood function with respect to these noise parameters, the optimal values can be obtained. Furthermore, the Bayesian probabilistic approach allows the associated uncertainty to be quantified. Examples using a single-degree-of-freedom system and a ten-story building illustrate the proposed method. The effect on the performance of the Kalman filter due to the selection of the process noise and measurement noise parameters was demonstrated. The optimal values of the noise parameters were found to be close to the actual values in the sense that the actual parameters were in the region with significant probability density. Through these examples, the Bayesian approach was shown to have the capability to provide accurate estimates of the noise parameters of the Kalman filter, and hence for state estimation. 相似文献
6.
Landslide stability analysis based on random-fuzzy reliability: taking Liangshuijing landslide as a case 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Wu Yiping Cheng Cong He Gaofeng Zhang Qiuxia 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(7):1723-1732
A large number of reservoir landslides will be impacted under the action of cyclical water level change in Three Gorges Reservoir, therefore its stability analysis and evaluation are important. And various kinds of influencing factors should be considered when landslide stability is analyzed. Taking Liangshuijing landslide as a case, considering the uncertain factors in the landslide stability analysis process, the landslide random-fuzzy reliability is analyzed in the paper, based on the sliding soil shear strength parameters testing and groundwater monitoring data. The results show that the landslide random-fuzzy reliability is the smallest at the process of high water level slowly dropping to low water level, and the landslide is basically at a steady state, which is consistent with landslide body actual deformation. Taking into account the uncertainty of groundwater level in a landslide body is equivalent to taking into account the changes of occurrence conditions in landslide rock and soil. Taking these factors into account is more in line with the actual when compared with only considering shear strength parameters random properties. 相似文献
7.
An analytical approximation for the calculation of the stationary reliability of linear dynamic systems with higher‐dimensional output under Gaussian excitation is presented. For systems with certain parameters theoretical and computational issues are discussed for two topics: (1) the correlation of failure events at different parts of the failure boundary and (2) the approximation of the conditional out‐crossing rate across the failure boundary by the unconditional one. The correlation in the first topic is approximated by a multivariate integral, which is evaluated numerically by an efficient algorithm. For the second topic some existing semi‐empirical approximations are discussed and a new one is introduced. The extension to systems with uncertain parameters requires the calculation of a multi‐dimensional reliability integral over the space of the uncertain parameters. An existing asymptotic approximation is used for this task and an efficient scheme for numerical calculation of the first‐ and second‐order derivatives of the integrand is presented. Stochastic simulation using an importance sampling approach is also considered as an alternative method, especially for cases where the dimension of the uncertain parameters is moderately large. Comparisons between the proposed approximations and Monte Carlo simulation for some examples related to earthquake excitation are made. It is suggested that the proposed analytical approximations are appropriate for problems that require a large number of consistent error estimates of the probability of failure, as occurs in reliability‐based design optimization. Numerical problems regarding computational efficiency may arise when the dimension of both the output and the uncertain parameters is large. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
Quality influencing factors of dispersion curves from short period dense arrays based on a convolutional neural network across the north section of the Xiaojiang fault area 
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下载免费PDF全文 Si Chen Rui Gao Zhanwu Lu Yao Liang Wei Cai Lifu Cao Zilong Chen Guangwen Wang 《地震科学（英文版）》2023,36(3):200-211
The number of dispersion curves increases significantly when the scale of a short-period dense array increases. Owing to a substantial increase in data volume, it is important to quickly evaluate dispersion curve quality as well as select the available dispersion curve. Accordingly, this study quantitatively evaluated dispersion curve quality by training a convolutional neural network model for ambient noise tomography using a short-period dense array. The model can select high-quality dispersion curves that exhibit a ≤ 10% difference between the results of manual screening and the proposed model. In addition, this study established a dispersion curve loss function by analyzing the quality of the dispersion curve and the corresponding influencing factors, thereby estimating the number of available dispersion curves for the existing observation systems. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo simulation experiment is used to illustrates the station-pair interval distance probability density function, which is independent of station number in the observational system with randomly deployed stations. The results suggested that the straight-line length should exceed 15 km to ensure that loss rate of dispersion curves remains < 0.5, while maintaining the threshold ambient noise tomography accuracy within the study area. 相似文献
9.
The distributions of the natural noise electromagnetic field level in the vicinity of the first Schumann resonance have been
studied based on data from Lovozero observatory (the Kola Peninsula). Daily curves of noise level excesses over specified
thresholds at different geomagnetic disturbances have been constructed. It has been indicated that the curves are morphologically
similar on magnetically quiet days but are highly variable from day to day, although the averaged curves are similar in some
characteristics to the unitary variation in the surface quasistatic electric field. The possibilities of applying the known
formula for the probability distribution of the VLF atmospheric radio noise amplitude in order to analytically describe the
noise level probability distribution have been considered. It has been detected that geomagnetic disturbances pronouncedly
affect the distribution parameters, sharply increasing the amount of large-amplitude noise. 相似文献
10.
A trapezoid valley site is chosen as a research site, and according to numerical models based on orthogonal design, the factors influencing ground motion in the valley site are studied with two-dimensional finite difference method. The influencing factors are ranked, and then the calculation results are verified by ground motion analysis. The conclusions are as follows: there are four factors that have important effects on ground motion of trapezoid valley sites, but the effects are different as the location of sites changes, the influencing factors rank differently with different site locations;The ranking of the influencing factors is the same for all the sites located within a distance of 40m from the valley''s side, among them, the most effective one is the valley slope angle ranks,followed by depth-to-width ratio, overburden thickness, at last the input ground motion intensity. The impact of the factors on surface ground motion is roughly the same in the valley sites within a certain distance to the valley side,and the geometric parameters of the valley terrain play a greater part in influencing ground motion. With the increase of distance away from the valley''s side, the ranking of the influencing factors also changes, the rating of slope angle moves backward, the ranking of the input ground motion and overburden thickness move ahead. The effect of valley geometric parameters on ground motions is gradually weakened, but the effect of other two influence factors are gradually increased, similar to cases of a horizontal layered site. Strong motion records in Anning River valley site were analyzed,and the results show that the valley topography has a significant amplification effect on ground motion, and that the numerical results of this paper are credible. 相似文献
11.
12.
Roberto Francese Mauro Giudici Douglas R. Schmitt Annalisa Zaja 《Geophysical Prospecting》2005,53(6):817-828
A high-resolution P-wave seismic reflection survey was conducted in the area of Lambro Park within the city of Milan (northern Italy). Several high permeability channel sequences were identified and the stratigraphy of the infill was accurately mapped. The seismic signature imaged a previously undefined unit and also established the lateral correlation of some depositional units within the three major aquifer groups along the survey line. The complexity of the acoustic framework and the reduced depth of the source location limited effective elastic-wave generation. The geological setting also caused propagation of strong coherent noise patterns. Further interference, observed in the recorded data, was due to the traffic noise from the nearby highway. The attenuation of the undesired events required the design of specific filters and their multistep implementation. The results of forward modelling based on borehole information and of noise tests were crucial factors in the design of the processing parameters and in the stratigraphic interpretation of the final stacked section. 相似文献
13.
利用CWQL检测JOPENS5.2系统仪器参数正确性 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
以锡林浩特地震台为例,利用CWQL软件调取JOPENS5.2系统台站实时数据与对应台站参数,计算台基噪声水平,检测该系统仪器参数正确性。分析认为,CWQL软件可用于日常地震观测系统数据质量检测,实现实时自动运用概率密度函数方法处理地震观测数据,得到各地震台站各分向PSD概率密度函数分布及RMS值,从而判断JOPESN5.2系统仪器参数正确性。 相似文献
14.
The uncertainty in hydrological model covariates, if ignored, introduces systematic bias in the parameters estimated. We introduce here a method to determine the true value of parameters given uncertainty in model inputs. This method, known as simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) operates on the basis of an empirical relationship between parameters and the level of input noise (or uncertainty). The method starts by generating a series of alternate model inputs by artificially adding white noise in increasing multiples of the known error variance. The resulting parameter sets allow us to formulate an empirical relationship between their values and the level of noise present. SIMEX is based on theory that the trend in alternate parameters can be extrapolated back to the notional error free zone.
We illustrate the strength of SIMEX in improving skills of predictive models that use uncertain sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) data over the NINO3 region as predictor to the southern oscillation index (SOI), an alternate measure of the strength of the El Nino southern oscillation. Our hypothesis is that the higher magnitude of noise in the pre 1960 data period introduces bias to model parameters where SSTA is the input variable. The relatively error invariant southern oscillation index (SOI) is regressed over SSTA and calibrated using a subset of the series from 1900 to 1960. We validate the resulting models using the less erroneous 1960–2003 data period. Overall the application of SIMEX is found to reduce the residual predictive errors during the validation period. 相似文献
15.
This study presents a factorial two-stage stochastic programming (FTSP) approach for supporting water resource management
under uncertainty. FTSP is developed through the integration of factorial analysis and two-stage stochastic programming (TSP)
methods into a general modeling framework. It can handle uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and interval
numbers. This approach has two advantages in comparison to conventional inexact TSP methods. Firstly, FTSP inherits merits
of conventional inexact two-stage optimization approaches. Secondly, it can provide detailed effects of uncertain parameters
and their interactions on the system performance. The developed FTSP method is applied to a hypothetical case study of water
resources systems analysis. The results indicate that significant factors and their interactions can be identified. They can
be further analyzed for generating water allocation decision alternatives in municipal, industrial and agricultural sectors.
Reasonable water allocation schemes can thus be formulated based on the resulting information of detailed effects from various
impact factors and their interactions. Consequently, maximized net system benefit can be achieved. 相似文献
16.
随着我国强震记录的积累,利用强震记录进行工程场地抗震设防研究成为必然。使用滇西南地区2007—2011年间强震台网记录到的强震动记录数据,研究使用水平/垂直谱比法(H/V)处理强震数据时的几个影响因素。通过研究发现:在使用H/V谱比法进行场地地震效应研究时,强震记录和地脉动记录存在较大的不同;使用强震记录可以获得更多的震源和台站场地参数信息,但这同时也相应增加了强震数据使用时的难度。比较国内外学者使用强震数据进行场地地震效应的研究成果,分析在使用强震数据时存在的问题,最终给出使用强震记录研究场地效应的建议。 相似文献
17.
由于气枪震源信号较弱, 容易受外界噪声或者地震等因素干扰, 而使得其真实的振幅被掩盖。 这些干扰记录若直接参与叠加容易导致振幅信息不可靠, 也会影响叠加效果。 为消除干扰影响, 提出概率筛选和噪声模型筛选振幅叠加方法, 以2018年6月在福建龙门滩水库和沙溪口水库的气枪实验数据为例, 从剔除干扰的能力、 波形形态、 振幅值等方面说明两种方法的实际效果, 并对比两者的优缺点。 研究结果表明: ① 两种筛选方法均能有效去除异常干扰, 经处理后的气枪信号的波形形态和最大振幅值与直接线性叠加基本一致; ② 对于固定台网台站, 噪声频谱方法可方便确认台站的运行状态, 及时筛除异常台站; ③ 对于灵敏度等信息不详的流动台站, 噪声模型筛选方法使用受限, 而概率筛选方法简洁, 适用性强。 相似文献
18.
Fuzzy-probabilistic calculations of water-balance uncertainty 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Hydrogeological systems are often characterized by imprecise, vague, inconsistent, incomplete, or subjective information, which may limit the application of conventional stochastic methods in predicting hydrogeologic conditions and associated uncertainty. Instead, predictions and uncertainty analysis can be made using uncertain input parameters expressed as probability boxes, intervals, and fuzzy numbers. The objective of this paper is to present the theory for, and a case study as an application of, the fuzzy-probabilistic approach, combining probability and possibility theory for simulating soil water balance and assessing associated uncertainty in the components of a simple water-balance equation. The application of this approach is demonstrated using calculations with the RAMAS Risk Calc code, to assess the propagation of uncertainty in calculating potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and infiltration—in a case study at the Hanford site, Washington, USA. Propagation of uncertainty into the results of water-balance calculations was evaluated by changing the types of models of uncertainty incorporated into various input parameters. The results of these fuzzy-probabilistic calculations are compared to the conventional Monte Carlo simulation approach and estimates from field observations at the Hanford site. 相似文献
19.
在实际的AVO反演问题中，叠前数据体中的噪声或其他因素严重影响了AVO反演问题的适定性，而采用先验地质信息作为AVO反演问题的约束条件是解决AVO反演问题不适定的一种可行方法. 文中的似然函数采用了[WTBX]ι[WTBX]p范数的解，并用Cauchy分布表示先验模型参数的分布. 以此为基础，在反演中建立了测井数据的参数协方差矩阵对反演过程进行约束，并采用了共轭梯度算法实现多参数非线性的反演过程. 同时，为了提高反演精度，避免动校正拉伸及依赖于炮检距的调谐效应对参数估计的影响，反演采用动校前地震数据进行参数估计. 从应用效果分析来看，即使叠前道集的信噪比不高，反演的结果也能较好地与实际情况相匹配，为识别储层流体性质提供了新的手段. 相似文献
20.
In this paper, a numerical method for correlation sensitivity analysis of a nonlinear random vibration system is presented. Based on the first passage failure model, the probability perturbation method is employed to determine the statistical characteristics of failure modes and the correlation between them. The sensitivity of correlation between failure modes with respect to random parameters characterizing the uncertainty of the hysteretic loop is discussed. In a numerical example, a two-DOF shear structure with uncertain hysteretic restoring force is considered. The statistical characteristics of response, failure modes and the sensitivity of random hysteretic loop parameters are provided, and also compared with a Monte Carlo simulation. 相似文献