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1.
城市化引起的气温上升是土地覆盖变化影响区域气候的重要体现.本文采用“观测资料减去再分析”(Observation Minus Reanalysis,OMR)的方法估计四川盆地和周边地区下垫面城市化改变对夏季地面2 m气温变化趋势的影响.设计了不同城市化下垫面扩展变化的WRF模拟试验,对1998—2012年四川盆地及周边区域夏季逐日平均温度和日最高最低气温进行模拟.在检验模式模拟性能的基础上,利用OMR方法类似的思路定量探讨城市化下垫面对地面气温变化趋势的可能影响.结果显示,(1)基于站点观测资料的OMR分布表明成都、重庆地区的城市下垫面对夏季升温的影响可达0.1℃·a^-1;(2)WRF试验模拟的结果与实际观测接近,能较合理刻画出该地区夏季温度的平均分布及时间变化特征,可以用于该地区城市化区域气候效应的研究;(3)不同城市化进程的模式模拟试验中气温变化趋势的差值与基于站点观测的OMR方法计算得到的结果类似,都证明了重庆和成都的城市下垫面对地面2 m温度的升高具有显著影响,其中在日内低温的表现尤为突出. 相似文献
2.
探讨气温变化的时空特征及其产生原因越来越成为当代大气科学关注的焦点.过去的大多研究揭示了长时间尺度上的气候变化受太阳辐射的影响情况.本文采用经验模态分解的方法,通过识别气温和太阳黑子变化中的特征时间尺度,分析了短中时间尺度上南京市与石家庄市气温和太阳辐射之间的关系,得到了吻合以前实证结果的太阳黑子11a的准周期成分等,在气温变化中也找到了相似于太阳黑子5.5和11a的准周期成分,但是相关性分析及检验某一模态信号是否为随机信号的验证分析同时说明相似周期成分之间并不相关.在95%的置信度下,南京市和石家庄市气温变化中确实存在不少短周期波动,它们和太阳辐射之间并不存在直接的相关关系,而且南京市气温3.1a的中周期波动也吻合前人的研究成果. 相似文献
3.
近百年来南海北部珊瑚生长率与海面温度变化的关系 总被引：15，自引：1，他引：15
从西沙和海南岛南部海区钻取的5个滨珊瑚(Porites)岩芯,研究其逐年生长率变化及与海面温度(SST)关系,得出近百年来研究海区的滨珊瑚生长率平均为11mm/a,变化于7～15mm/a之间,珊瑚生长率与SST呈显著正相关.据1961～1993年的资料统计,各个样品的相关系数在0.77～0.89之间,从而建立了珊瑚生长率温度计.由它后报1993～1961年间该海区的SST,误差为土0.12～±0.17℃.由后报得出近百年来南海北部热带海区的SST上升率为0.20℃/100a,明显高于中国气温的0.09℃/100a,但低于全球温度和西太平洋热带海区SST的上升率. 相似文献
4.
《中国科学:地球科学》2021,(8)
尽管现有研究中普遍存在人为区分白天和夜间极端高温的做法,但实际上它们并不是完全独立的,可能同步或连续发生.考虑到它们的潜在先后顺序,本研究把连续的白天或夜间极端高温过程认定为一次完整的热浪过程,并研究1961～2017年间中国地区热浪过程中白天和夜间极端高温的发生率及发生次序的变化.结果表明, 82%的热浪为既包含白天也包含夜间极端高温的复合型热浪,仅7%(11%)为只包含白天(夜间)极端高温的纯白天型(夜间型)热浪.复合型热浪过程中,白天高温常常领先夜间高温一天或几天出现,这符合热浪过程中气象和辐射条件的变化,比如逐日增加的云量和近地面空气湿度以及减少的太阳辐射. 1961～2017年,复合型热浪数量增幅最大,呈0.44次每十年的显著趋势.纯白天型热浪的变化趋势不显著,为0.00次每十年;而纯夜间型热浪显著增加,趋势为0.09次每十年.复合型热浪过程中夜间极端高温出现得更早结束得更晚,并且昼夜同步极端高温天的天数增加显著,趋势为0.20天每十年.特别地,城市相对于乡村地区受到愈加频繁且持续时间越来越长的复合型热浪影响,昼夜同步极端高温天天数也越来越多,而这种白天到夜间持续性的热浪过程有着更严重的影响.本研究为研究人员选择合适的热浪指数提供了指导和依据. 相似文献
5.
“年月日日环食期间太阳辐射和大气重力波的分析研究”课题组 《地球物理学报》1990,33(4):399-407
本文通过对1987年9月23日日环食期间太阳辐射和地面气象要素等实测资料的分析,指出了在日环食过程中太阳辐射和地面气象要素等的变化,也叙述了日食期间地面臭氧含量的变化;第一次在国内测得了由日食引起的大气重力波,进而讨论了大气重力波的若干特性. 相似文献
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《中国科学:地球科学》2021,(6)
关于全球变暖及其对气候和环境影响的研究,目前主要是从绝对升温速率的角度进行分析,很少关注绝对增温率与多时间尺度变率对地表气温变化总方差的相对贡献,而这可能是一个衡量变暖趋势的生态气候效应更直接的指标.本研究分析了变暖趋势在1901～2016年全球陆表气温变化中的作用.在全球大部分地区,年平均的变暖趋势对于陆表气温变化总方差的贡献不到三分之一.而在南美洲东部、地中海和巽他群岛等区域,虽然绝对增温速率相对较小,但变暖趋势对当地陆表气温变化总方差的贡献超过了三分之二,且这些区域变暖趋势的季节差异也最小,与当地特有物种正在经历栖息地的异常消失相对应.这说明变暖趋势在地表气温变化中的贡献率,比绝对增温速率能更好地度量增暖趋势对局地生态系统的影响.因此,我们不仅要关注绝对增温率高的地区,更要关注增温率在局地地表气温变化中起主导作用的地区. 相似文献
7.
利用1951～2002年全国733个测站经过非均一性检验的月平均气温资料,在剔除50万以上人口大城市测站后,分析了52年来中国东、西部及青藏高原地区的气温变化趋势的一致性和差异性,并讨论了其可能原因.结果表明我国东、西部地区年、季平均气温变化有着较好的一致性;近52年来,我国东、西部和青藏高原地区年平均气温均呈升温趋势,年平均气温的增温速率东部为026℃/10a,西部018℃/10a,东部比西部高008℃/10a;季平均气温东部地区冬、春季的增暖趋势大于西部和青藏高原,而其夏、秋季的增暖趋势小于西部和青藏高原.我国东、西部地区年、季平均气温变化关系密切,说明其主要是受全球气候变化的影响而变化,但东部年平均气温的增暖总趋势大于西部,又说明地域差异在气温变化中也有重要作用. 相似文献
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9.
青藏高原中部0.2 ka来的环境变化 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
根据青藏高原那曲地区错鄂CE-1孔137Cs和210Pb测试结果, 建立了该孔年代序列. 根据沉积物岩性、碳酸盐含量、介形虫壳体Sr/Ca和Mg/Ca比值、碳酸盐同位素分析, 推测青藏高原中部近0.2 ka来环境变化经历了两大阶段, 即: 前0.1 ka, 气候干 旱, 沉积环境为沼泽环境; 后0.1 ka, 气温上升, 湿度增大, 为湖泊环境. 0.1 ka来的湿度变化存在0.02 ka的周期, 其中, 1920～1940和1960～1980年前后, 为两个较为湿润的时期, 1980年以来该地区变干. 相似文献
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PeiJun Shi Shao Sun Ming Wang Ning Li Jing’Ai Wang YunYun Jin XiaoTian Gu WeiXia Yin 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2014,57(11):2676-2689
Since climatic condition is the important foundation for human subsistence and development and the key factor in sustainable development of economy and society, climate change has been a global issue attracting great attentions of politicians, scientists, governments, and the public alike throughout the world. Existing climate regionalization in China aims to characterize the regional differences in climate based on years of the mean value of different climate indexes. However, with the accelerating climate change nowadays, existing climate regionalization cannot represent the regional difference of climate change, nor can it reflect the disasters and environmental risks incurred from climate changes. This paper utilizes the tendency value and fluctuation value of temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2010 to identify the climate change quantitatively, and completes the climate change regionalization in China(1961–2010) with county administrative regionalization as the unit in combination with China's terrain feature. Level-I regionalization divides China's climate change(1961–2010) into five tendency zones based on the tendency of temperature and precipitation, which are respectively Northeast China-North China warm-dry trend zone, East China-Central China wet-warm trend zone, Southwest China-South China dry-warm trend zone, Southeast Tibet-Southwest China wet-warm trend zone, and Northwest China-Qinghai-Tibet Plateau warm-wet trend zone; level-II regionalization refers to fourteen fluctuation regions based on level-I regionalization according to the fluctuation of temperature and precipitation. 相似文献
12.
XIAO Dong ZHOU XiuJi & ZHAO Ping Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing China; State 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2012,(9):1504-1517
Despite many studies on reconstructing the climate changes over the last millennium in China,the cause of the China’s climate change remains unclear.We used the UVic Earth System Climate Model(UVic Model),an Earth system model of intermediate complexity,to investigate the contributions of climate forcings(e.g.solar insolation variability,anomalous volcanic aerosols,greenhouse gas,solar orbital change,land cover changes,and anthropogenic sulfate aerosols) to surface air temperature over East China in the past millennium.The simulation of the UVic Model could reproduce the three main characteristic periods(e.g.the Medieval Warm Period(MWP),the Little Ice Age(LIA),and the 20th Century Warming Period(20CWP)) of the northern hemisphere and East China,which were consistent with the corresponding reconstructed air temperatures at century scales.The simulation result reflected that the air temperature anomalies of East China were larger than those of the global air temperature during the MWP and the first half of 20CWP and were lower than those during the LIA.The surface air temperature of East China over the past millennium has been divided into three periods in the MWP,four in the LIA,and one in the 20CWP.The MWP of East China was caused primarily by solar insolation and secondarily by volcanic aerosols.The variation of the LIA was dominated by the individual sizes of the contribution of solar insolation variability,greenhouse gas,and volcano aerosols.Greenhouse gas and volcano aerosols were the main forcings of the third and fourth periods of the LIA,respectively.We examined the nonlinear responses among the natural and anthropogenic forcings in terms of surface air temperature over East China.The nonlinear responses between the solar orbit change and anomalous volcano aerosols and those between the greenhouse gases and land cover change(or anthropogenic sulfate aerosols) all contributed approximately 0.2℃ by the end of 20th century.However,the output of the energy-moisture balance atmospheric model from UVic showed no obvious nonlinear responses between anthropogenic and natural forcings.The nonlinear responses among all the climate forcings(both anthropogenic and natural forcings) contributed to a temperature increase of approximately 0.27℃ at the end of the 20th century,accounting for approximately half of the warming during this period;the remainder was due to the climate forcings themselves. 相似文献
13.
Ivana Nemešová Jaroslava Kalová Martin Dubrovský 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1999,43(2):201-222
Three-dimensional general circulation models (GCMs) are 'state-of-the-art' tools for projecting possible changes in climate. Scenarios constructed for the Czech Republic are based on daily outputs of the ECHAM-GCM in the central European region. Essential findings, derived from validating, procedures are summarized and changes in variables between the control and perturbed experiments are examined. The resulting findings have been used in selecting the most proper methods of generating climate change projections for assessing possible hydrological and agricultural impacts of climate change in selected exposure units. The following weather variables have been studied: Daily extreme temperatures, daily mean temperature, daily sum of global solar radiation, and daily precipitation amounts. Due to some discrepancies revealed, the temperature series for changed climate conditions (2×CO
2
) have been created with the help of temperature differences between the control and perturbed runs, and the precipitation series have been derived from an incremental scenario based on an intercomparison of the GCMs' precipitation performance in the region. Solar radiation simulated by the ECHAM was not available and, therefore, it was generated using regression techniques relating monthly means of daily extreme temperatures and global radiation sums. The scenarios published in the paper consist of monthly means of all temperatures, their standard deviations, and monthly means of solar radiation and precipitation amounts. Daily weather series, the necessary input to impact models, are created (i) by the additive or multiplicative modification of observed weather daily series or (ii) by generating synthetic time series with the help of a weather generator whose parameters have been modified in accord with the suggested climate change scenarios. 相似文献
14.
小冰期气候变化主控因子的模拟试验 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
小冰期是距今最近,特征最明显的寒冷气候事件,对于研究世纪尺度气候变化具有重要意义. 过去的研究结果认为,太阳活动和火山活动的变化是小冰期气候变化的主要原因. 本文应用AGCM SSiB模式分别试验了植被、太阳辐射和火山活动变化对小冰期温度、降水的影响,发现下垫面植被变化对小冰期温度变化影响的量级与太阳辐射和火山活动变化的作用相当,对降水的影响甚至超过太阳活动和火山活动变化的作用,说明对于世纪尺度的气候变化而言,下垫面植被的反馈作用不可忽略. 这对于深入理解小冰期气候变化的机理具有启迪作用,同时也为世纪尺度气候变化研究与气候情景预测提供了新的思路和方法. 相似文献
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近几年来,国家气候中心己经建立了中国主要四大流域气候对水资源影响评估的模式框架.本文拟进一步证明其中之一的两参数分布式月水量平衡水文模式对长江之上汉江和赣江两子流域径流的模拟能力,结果表明该水文模式对目前气候条件下径流模拟效果较好,运行稳定,可用于实时业务运行.在此基础上,利用ECHAM4和HadCM2两GCM(General Circulation Model)未来气候情景模拟结果及目前实测气候情况,对汉江和赣江两子流域的径流对未来气候变化的敏感性进行评估.经检验,两GCM对未来气候,特别是降水情景模拟存在一定差异,因此,造成径流对气候变化的响应不同,这充分反映了全球模式模拟结果不确定性在气候变化影响研究中的重要性. 相似文献
16.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):100-111
Abstract The runoff of Iceland has been evaluated for the period 1961–1990, and changes in runoff from then to the period 2071–2100 predicted according to a future projection of climate change. The hydrological model WASIM-ETH was used, with meteorological data from the PSU/NCAR MM5 numerical weather model. The evaluation of the effects of climate change on water resources was based on a future climate simulation from the HIRHAM regional climate model with boundary conditions from the HadAM3H global climate model using A2 and B2 emissions scenarios. Future runoff was shown to become much higher in 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990, predominantly due to increased glacial melt caused by increased temperature. Furthermore, changes in runoff seasonality would be substantial. Thus, according to this projection there could be great changes in hydropower production potential associated with climate change in Iceland. 相似文献
17.
《水文科学杂志》2012,57(2):227-241
ABSTRACTThe study addresses homogeneity testing of annual discharge time series for eight hydrological stations and five annual climate time series for one weather station in the Kupa River Basin, between Slovenia and Croatia, and global annual average surface temperature time series for the period 1961–2010. The standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) was used to detect both abrupt and gradual linear trend homogeneity breaks. The results reveal natural change points at the beginning of the 1980s. Absolute homogeneity testing of average annual weather station-level air pressure, annual precipitation, differences between precipitation totals and potential evapotranspiration and surface runoff from the independent observation time series confirmed an abrupt shift, also at the beginning of the 1980s. The trend of local air temperature for 1985–2000, which partly coincides with global surface temperature trend for 1974–2005, strengthened the river discharge regime shift since the beginning of the 1980s. These results could improve climate variation monitoring and estimation of the impact of climate variation on the environment in the area. Generally, an indication of climate regime change points and an assessment of their duration could provide significant benefits for the society. 相似文献
18.
A 14.7 Ka record of earth surface processes from the arid‐monsoon transitional zone of China 
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下载免费PDF全文 Selvaraj Kandasamy Shengqian Chen Chengling Xie Qiaomei Chen Baozhi Lin Kaifeng Yu Qinghai Xu Victor M. Velasco Fahu Chen 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(3):723-734
The stability of Earth's critical zone is intimately linked with erosion, weathering and vegetation type and density. Therefore, it affects global biogeochemical processes which in turn affect the global climate by absorbing and reflecting solar radiation, and by altering fluxes of heat, water vapour, carbon dioxide and other trace gases through various feedback mechanisms. However, there is a lack of knowledge about how Earth's critical zone processes have changed over time and their link with past monsoon variability, especially in Asia. The study of lake sediments, which contain a suite of inorganic elemental and isotopic proxies, may facilitate the understanding of the Earth's critical zone processes on millennial timescales. Here we reconstruct the history of erosion–weathering–vegetation interactions since ~14.7 ka using geochemical records from a radiocarbon‐dated sediment core from Lake Gonghai in the monsoon‐arid transitional zone of north China. Detrital (Al, Ti, K, Rb) and authigenic (Ca, Sr) elemental records reveal distinct, millennial‐scale, late deglacial‐Holocene erosion and weathering patterns and transitions with the former (latter) elements showing higher (lower) values in warm intervals and vice versa. Chemical Index of Alteration (CIA) molar, a humidity proxy, suggests low humidity during the late deglacial ~11.5–14.7 ka, high humidity during the early‐mid Holocene ~11.5–3.2 ka, and intermediate humidity during the late Holocene interval since ~3.2 ka. The results of cross‐spectral analysis and comparison of our records with other climate reconstructions also suggest a pattern of orbitally‐phased humidity changes in north China. Overall, our results provide evidence for the solar‐forcing of Earth's surface processes in mid‐latitude China under natural climatic conditions. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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本文以MSIS90大气模式和3D NeUoG电离层模式为大气背景,用三维射线追踪法模拟研究了太阳活动强度、地方时、掩星平面方位角对弯曲角电离层残差和温度电离层残差的影响,以及电离层残差对全球日平均温度的影响.结果表明：电离层残差是平流层顶部（35~50 km）和中间层底部（50~70 km）掩星大气温度反演的主要误差.在太阳活动活跃期,电离层残差对单一掩星事件的平流层顶部平均温度的影响可达1.8 K,中间层底部平均温度的影响可达7 K;对全球日平均温度的影响在平流层顶可达-0.6 K,在70 km高度处可达1.2 K.发展新的电离层改正方法或电离层残差修正算法对提高掩星大气反演精度和全球气候监测意义重大. 相似文献
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本文尝试用一个完全耦合的大气-海洋-植被模式(Atmosphere-Ocean-Vegetation General Circulation Model, AOVGCM)模拟全新世初期的地球气候.模拟结果表明，耦合模式成功地再现了全新世初期复杂气候条件下的基本特征，为研究这一时期的气候状况提供了重要的模型支持.就全球平均而言，11ka BP冬季地表气温比现代约低1.6 K,夏季比现代低约0.3 K；大气温度从低层到高层有不同的表现，高层反映了太阳辐射的重要作用，而低层气候对下垫面（如冰川、植被和海洋等）的影响比较敏感.从区域分布来看，11 ka BP冬季大部地区比现在偏干，但热带太平洋和南半球少部地区降水偏多；夏季大部地区比现在偏湿，亚洲和非洲季风偏强，主要的季风区降水偏多. 相似文献