共查询到18条相似文献，搜索用时 78 毫秒
1.
2.
长白山天池火山的危险性和火山碎屑流灾害评估 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
本文以长白山天池火山１２１５ＡＤ大喷发为参照系,采用了“以古论今”的历史分析方法,对天池火山的危险性和火山碎屑流灾害进行了评估。认为长白山天池火山是具有潜在喷发能力的高危险火山,给出了长白山天池火山的火山碎屑流灾害预测分区图,为各级政府部门合理制定土地使用规划和防灾活动提供了理论依据。 相似文献
3.
核电厂址的选址和核电设施运行过程中的火山安全问题是难以避免的重要议题。在过去的核电选址和安全运行评价的过程中,对火山灾害的考虑仅局限于已知10ka内喷发过的全新世火山。2012年国际原子能机构颁布了IAEA/SSG-21号火山安全标准专用安全导则,基于板块俯冲带火山岛弧系统火山活动的特点,提出在过去10Ma内发生过火山活动的地区在未来也可能发生火山活动,是评估一座火山在未来是否将发生任何火山活动的合理依据。同时,IAEA/SSG-21也针对火山熔岩流、碎屑流和火山灰空降等火山灾害可能影响的范围进行了讨论,并提出了不同火山灾害现象的安全评估范围。文中以IAEA/SSG-21号《核设施厂址火山灾害评估》为技术依据,针对中国火山活动的特点,改进了中国大陆核电厂选址的火山灾害评估技术方法,并以海南琼北火山区为例,编制了适应IAEA/SSG-21导则的火山灰灾害概率图。文中研究成果可为中国大陆核电厂选址和核设施安全运行过程中的潜在火山灾害评估提供技术途径。 相似文献
4.
国外火山减灾研究进展 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
概述了国外近期火山灾害减轻进展,内容包括：火山灾害分类,识别高危险性火山,灾害识别、评价和分带,火山监测和喷发预测。减轻火山灾害的工程措施以有火山应急管理等方面。并对几次重大火山喷发灾难实例作了介绍和分析比较 相似文献
5.
6.
数据库的建立是信息系统形成的基础，而对灾害的深入分析和研究有赖于信息系统的支持。本文简述了火山灾害研究的一般方法，提出了长白山火山灾害数据库建立的基本设想，并讨论了其未来的应用方向。 相似文献
7.
讨论了有关五大连池火山的构造背景，区域构造特征，历史和现代火山活动以及火山灾害及其预报和防治等等。 相似文献
8.
五大连池火山群老黑山火烧山熔岩流流动特征及其形成动力过程 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
从火山灾害的预测预防角度出发，叙述了五大连池火山群老黑山、火烧山近代火山喷发所形成的熔岩流产物——熔岩的分布，表面特征，流动过程。讨论了漫流、溪谷熔岩流和潜流三种流动方式。对结壳熔岩、渣状熔岩、块状熔岩、喷气锥、熔岩遂道等的形成动力过程以及对古地形古环境条件的制约做了深入的讨论，提出新的形成模式和一些新的认识。 相似文献
9.
10.
长白山天池火山位于中国和朝鲜两国边境线上, 借助国际合作, 对分布于中朝两国境内的天池火山喷发物进行了较系统的野外考查, 选择层序完整的火山喷发物剖面, 对天池火山进行整体研究. 在此基础上, 系统测定了天池火山历史时期大喷发从早期到晚期喷出的气体成分和含量, 进而探讨了该火山气体对环境的影响及其造成的火山灾害, 并利用天池火山气体成分和含量开展了该火山未来喷发危险性及其潜在火山灾害预测研究, 这一方法对进一步开展我国大陆活火山的喷发预测及其火山灾害防御研究具有重要意义. 相似文献
11.
The Campi Flegrei caldera is a restless structure affected by general subsidence and ongoing resurgence of its central part.
The persistent activity of the system and the explosive character of the volcanism lead to a very high volcanic hazard that,
combined with intense urbanization, corresponds to a very high volcanic risk. One of the largest sources of uncertainty in
volcanic hazard/risk assessment for Campi Flegrei is the spatial location of the future volcanic activity. This paper presents
and discusses a long-term probability hazard map for vent opening in case of renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera,
which shows the spatial conditional probability for the next vent opening, given that an eruption occurs. The map has been
constructed by building a Bayesian inference scheme merging prior information and past data. The method allows both aleatory
and epistemic uncertainties to be evaluated. The probability map of vent opening shows that two areas of relatively high probability
are present within the active portion of the caldera, with a probability approximately doubled with respect to the rest of
the caldera. The map has an immediate use in evaluating the areas of the caldera prone to the highest volcanic hazard. Furthermore,
it represents an important ingredient in addressing the more general problem of quantitative volcanic hazards assessment at
the Campi Flegrei caldera. 相似文献
12.
归纳总结2017年度全球81座活火山的活动情况,共计活动1058座次,平均每周记录20座活火山的活动信息。根据火山潜在喷发的危险性和火山活动的强弱程度对上述火山进行分级描述,火山活动主要反映了地球表层的构造活动,其中大角度俯冲带的弧后火山最为强烈,小角度的俯冲带、拉张裂谷和走滑为主的板块边界火山活动较为平静,火山活动频繁的印度尼西亚岛链是受灾最为严重的区域。预计全球火山活动将进一步加剧,印尼岛链受火山灾害威胁的程度依然较大。位于印尼岛链巴厘岛上的阿贡火山自2017年9月开始活动以来,整个喷发过程极具代表性,监测阿贡火山喷发过程可为全球典型火山喷发事件研究提供参考。 相似文献
13.
我国火山灾害的主要类型及火山灾害区划图编制现状探讨 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
通过对《核电厂厂址选择中的地震问题》(HAF0101(1))有关条款的详细剖析,发震构造包括两个方面的含义:一是曾经是地震震源的地质构造;二是未来可能发生破坏性地震的地质构造。地震重演原则和构造类比原则是判定发震构造的两条基本依据,但在实际工作中构造类比原则的应用往往存在较大难度,对中强地震发震构造的判定尤其如此。文中提出:对中强地震构造带地貌差异性和第四纪地层分布特征的研究有可能提供识别发生中强地震地质构造的标志。 相似文献
15.
龙岗金龙顶子火山空降碎屑物数值模拟及概率性灾害评估 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
空降碎屑物为爆炸式火山喷发产生的一种重要的灾害类型,数值模拟已成为一个快速有效地确定火山灰扩散和沉积范围的方法。本文根据改进的Suzuki(1983)二维扩散模型,编写了基于Windows环境下的火山灰扩散程序。通过对前人资料的分析,模拟了龙岗火山群中最新火山喷发——金龙顶子火山喷发产生的空降碎屑物扩散范围,与实测结果具有很好的一致性,证实了模型的可靠性和参数的合理性。根据该区10年的风参数,模拟了7021次不同风参数时金龙顶子火山灰的扩散范围,以此制作了火山灰沉积厚度超过1cm和0.5cm时的概率性空降碎屑灾害区划图。本文的研究可为龙岗火山区火山危险性分析和灾害预警与对策提供重要的科学依据。 相似文献
16.
A new method to calculate volcanic susceptibility, i.e. the spatial probability of vent opening, is presented. Determination of volcanic susceptibility should constitute the first step in the elaboration of volcanic hazard maps of active volcanic fields. Our method considers different criteria as possible indicators for the location of future vents, based on the assumption that these locations should correspond to the surface expressions of the most likely pathways for magma ascent. Thus, two groups of criteria have been considered depending on the time scale (short or long term) of our approach. The first one accounts for long-term hazard assessment and corresponds to structural criteria that provide direct information on the internal structure of the volcanic field, including its past and present stress field, location of structural lineations (fractures and dikes), and location of past eruptions. The second group of criteria concerns to the computation of susceptibility for short term analyses (from days to a few months) during unrest episodes, and includes those structural and dynamical aspects that can be inferred from volcano monitoring. Thus, a specific layer of information is obtained for each of the criteria used. The specific weight of each criterion on the overall analysis depends on its relative significance to indicate pathways for magma ascent, on the quality of data and on their degree of confidence. The combination of the different data layers allows to create a map of the spatial probability of future eruptions based on objective criteria, thus constituting the first step to obtain the corresponding volcanic hazards map. The method has been used to calculate long-term volcanic susceptibility on Tenerife (Canary Islands), and the results obtained are also presented. 相似文献
17.
This paper presents an automatic system for the elaboration of volcanic hazard maps and scenarios. The methodology used for the generation of both maps is based on the use of numerical simulation of eruptive processes. The system has been developed in a Geographical Information System (GIS) framework, where models for the numerical simulation of different volcanic hazards have been integrated. The user can select in a toolbar one hazard and then decide whether to generate a scenario map (usually with a unique vent) or a hazard map (generally with a broader source area). Once the input parameters are selected, the system automatically generates the corresponding map. The system also incorporates a module to determine the spatial probability of vent opening, as this could be an important parameter for the computation of hazard maps. The tool has been designed in such a way that the inclusion of new numerical models and functionalities is rather easy. Each numerical model is programmed and implemented as an independent program that is launched from the system and, when it finishes the computation, returns the control to the GIS, where the results are shown. This structure allows that further analyses (specifically, risk analyses, that use as an input a hazard or a scenario map), could be also automated inside the system. Additional information, including tutorial and downloadable files can be found in www.gvb-csic.es. 相似文献
18.
Volcanic lightning, perhaps the most spectacular consequence of the electrification of volcanic plumes, has been implicated in the origin of life on Earth, and may also exist in other planetary atmospheres. Recent years have seen volcanic lightning detection used as part of a portfolio of developing techniques to monitor volcanic eruptions. Remote sensing measurement techniques have been used to monitor volcanic lightning, but surface observations of the atmospheric electric Potential Gradient (PG) and the charge carried on volcanic ash also show that many volcanic plumes, whilst not sufficiently electrified to produce lightning, have detectable electrification exceeding that of their surrounding environment. Electrification has only been observed associated with ash-rich explosive plumes, but there is little evidence that the composition of the ash is critical to its occurrence. Different conceptual theories for charge generation and separation in volcanic plumes have been developed to explain the disparate observations obtained, but the ash fragmentation mechanism appears to be a key parameter. It is unclear which mechanisms or combinations of electrification mechanisms dominate in different circumstances. Electrostatic forces play an important role in modulating the dry fall-out of ash from a volcanic plume. Beyond the local electrification of plumes, the higher stratospheric particle concentrations following a large explosive eruption may affect the global atmospheric electrical circuit. It is possible that this might present another, if minor, way by which large volcanic eruptions affect global climate. The direct hazard of volcanic lightning to communities is generally low compared to other aspects of volcanic activity. 相似文献