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1.
Drought is a natural hazard which can cause harmful effects on water resources. To monitor drought, the use of an indicator and determination of wet and dry period trend seem to have an important role in quantifying the drought analysis. In this paper, in addition to the comparison of Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based on the most appropriate probability distribution function, it was tried to examine the trends of dry and wet periods based on the mentioned indices. Accordingly, the meteorological data of 30 synoptic stations in Iran (1960–2014) was used and the trend was analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test by eliminating the effect of any significant autocorrelation coefficients at 95% confidence level (modified Mann–Kendall). Comparing results between the time series of RDI and SPI drought indices based on statistical indicators (RMSE?<?0.434, R2?>?0.819 and T-statistic?<?0.419) in all studied stations revealed that the behavior of the two indices was roughly the same and the difference between them was not significant. The trend analysis results of RDI and SPI indices based on modified Mann–Kendall test showed that the variation of dry and wet periods was decreasing in most of the studied stations (five cases were significant). In addition, the results of the trend line slope of dry and wet periods related to the drought indices in the studied area indicated that the slope was negative for SPI and RDI indices in 70% and 50% of stations, respectively.  相似文献   

2.
ABSTRACT

This paper presents an analysis of trends in six drought variables at 566 stations across India over the period 1901–2002. Six drought variables were computed using standardized precipitation index (SPI). The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen’s slope estimator were used for trend analysis of drought variables. Discrete wavelet transform (DWT) was used to identify the dominant periodic components in trends, whereas the significance of periodic components was examined using continuous wavelet transform (CWT) based global wavelet spectrum (GWS). Our results show an increasing trend in droughts in eastern, northeastern and extreme southern regions, and a decreasing trend in the northern and southern regions of the country. The periodic component influencing the trend was 2–4 years in south, 4–8 years in west, east and northeast, 8–64 years in central parts and 32–128 years in the north; however, most of the periodic components were not statistically significant.  相似文献   

3.
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is widely recognized as a good indicator of vegetation productivity. Diagnosing the NDVI trend and understanding climatic factors influences on NDVI can predict the productivity changes under different climatic scenarios. This paper examined NDVI dynamic and its response to climate factors during a 10 year period (1998–2008) in Inner Mongolia. The main findings are as follows: (1) The NDVI multi-scale characters can be revealed well by wavelet transform, and the average NDVI and the NDVI amplitude show a gradually decreased trend from northeast to southwest in Inner Mongolia during the past 10 years, furthermore, this trend is consistent with the heat and water distribution caused by latitude difference in north–south direction and Asia monsoon effect in east–west direction. (2) The relation between NDVI and temperature is the most close, followed by precipitation, sunshine hours and relative humidity. Different vegetation cover types show different strengths in correlation between NDVI and climate variables with the correlation values decreasing from forest, meadow steppe to desert steppe in whole. (3) The precipitation and temperature have the same change cycle, both nearly 290 days in the 20 selected stations. The NDVI has the same change cycle with the precipitation and temperature or either 10 days earlier or later than precipitation and temperature, which supports the significant correlation between NDVI and its climatic factors from a new perspective. The nearly 290 days change cycle implies that the vegetation growth cycle is nearly 10 months and there are no obvious differences change cycles in different vegetations. (4) Vegetation dynamic is significantly correlated to the temperature and precipitation at the time scale of 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, and 320-day, respectively, and the S3 scale (i.e., the time scale of 80-day), nearly 3 months (one season), is most significant and suitable for evaluating the vegetation dynamic to climatic factors.  相似文献   

4.
Investigation of the precipitation phenomenon as one of the most important meteorological factors directly affecting access to water resources is of paramount importance. In this study, the precipitation concentration index (PCI) was calculated using annual precipitation data from 34 synoptic stations of Iran over a 50-year period (1961–2010). The trend of precipitation and the PCI index were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test after removing the effect of autocorrelation coefficients in annual and seasonal time scales. The results of zoning the studied index at annual time scale revealed that precipitation concentration follows a similar trend within two 25-year subscales. Furthermore, the PCI index in central and southern regions of the country, including the stations of Kerman, Bandarabbas, Yazd, Zahedan, Shahrekord, Birjand, Bushehr, Ahwaz, and Esfahan indicates a strong irregularity and high concentration in atmospheric precipitations. In annual time scale, none of the studied stations, had shown regular concentration (PCI < 10). Analyzing the trend of PCI index during the period of 1961–2010 witnessed an insignificant increasing (decreasing) trend in 16 (15) stations for winter season, respectively, while it faced a significant negative trend in Dezful, Saghez, and Hamedan stations. Similarly, in spring, Kerman and Ramsar stations exhibited a significant increasing trend in the PCI index, implying significant development of precipitation concentration irregularities in these two stations. In summer, Gorgan station showed a strong and significant irregularity for the PCI index and in autumn, Tabriz and Zahedan (Babolsar) stations experienced a significant increasing (decreasing) trend in the PCI index. At the annual time scale, 50 % of stations experienced an increasing trend in the PCI index. Investigating the changes in the precipitation trend also revealed that in annual time scale, about 58 % of the stations had a decreasing trend. In winter, which is the rainiest season in Iran, about 64 % of stations experienced a decreasing trend in precipitation that caused an increasing trend in PCI index. Comparing the spatial distribution of PCI index within two 25 years sub-periods indicated that the PCI index of the second sub-period increased in the spring time scale that means irregularity of precipitation distribution has been increased. But in the other seasons any significant variations were not observed. Also in the annual time scale the PCI index increased in the second sub-period because of the increasing trend of precipitation.  相似文献   

5.
Drought, a normal recurrent event in arid and semiarid lands such as Iran, is typically of a temporary nature usually leaving little permanent aftermath. In the current study, the rainfall and drought severity time series were analyzed at 10 stations in the eastern half of Iran for the period 1966–2005. The drought severity was computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for a 12‐month timescale. The trend analyses of the data were also performed using the Kendall and Spearman tests. The results of this study showed that the rainfall and drought severity data had high variations to average values in the study period, and these variations increased with increasing aridity towards the south of the study area. The negative serial correlations found in the seasonal and annual rainfall time series were mostly insignificant. The trend tests detected a significant decreasing trend in the spring rainfall series of Birjand station at the rate of 8.56 mm per season per decade and a significant increasing trend in the summer rainfall series of Torbateheydarieh station at the rate of 0.14 mm per season per decade, whereas the rest of the trends were insignificant. Furthermore, the 12‐month values of the standardized precipitation index decreased at all the stations except Zabol during the past four decades. During the study period, all of the stations experienced at least one extreme drought which mainly occurred in the winter season. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
It is expected that climate warming will be experienced through increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events, including droughts. This paper presents an analysis of observed changes and future projections for meteorological drought for four different time scales (1 month, and 3, 6 and 12 months) in the Beijiang River basin, South China, on the basis of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Observed changes in meteorological drought were analysed at 24 meteorological stations from 1969 to 2011. Future meteorological drought was projected based on the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, as projected by the regional climate model RegCM4.0. The statistical significance of the meteorological drought trends was checked with the Mann–Kendall method. The results show that drought has become more intense and more frequent in most parts of the study region during the past 43 years, mainly owing to a decrease in precipitation. Furthermore, long-term dryness is expected to be more pronounced than short-term dryness. Validation of the model simulation indicates that RegCM4.0 provides a good simulation of the characteristic values of SPEIs. During the twenty first century, significant drying trends are projected for most parts of the study region, especially in the southern part of the basin. Furthermore, the drying trends for RCP8.5 (or for long time scales) are more pronounced than for RCP4.5 (or for short time scales). Compared to the baseline period 1971–2000, the frequency of drought for RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) tends to increase (decrease) in 2021–2050 and decrease (increase) in 2051–2080. The results of this paper will be helpful for efficient water resources management in the Beijiang River basin under climate warming.  相似文献   

7.
Indian summer monsoon and El Nino   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The associations between strong to moderate El Nino events and the all-India and subdivisional summer monsoon rainfall is examined for the period 1871 to 1978. The significance of the association is assessed by applying the Chi-square test to the contingency table. The analysis indicates that during 22 El Nino years the Indian monsoon rainfall was mostly below normal over most parts of the country. However, the association between El Nino and deficient rainfall or drought is statistically significant over the subdivisions west of longitude 80°E and north of 12°N. During the five strong El Nino years—1877, 1899, 1911, 1918, and 1972—many areas of India suffered large rainfall deficiencies and severe droughts. There are four moderate El Nino years—1887, 1914, 1953, and 1976—when the suffering was marginal. The relationship between El Nino and the Indian monsoon rainfall is expected to be useful in forecasting large-scale anomalies in the monsoon over India.  相似文献   

8.
Iran is a mountainous country with large lateral density variations of its crust. Constant density value is commonly used to determine the geoid models as well as topographic corrections. The effect of lateral density variation in the geoid can reach up to 14 cm in Iran which is not negligible in a precise geoid modelling. Also, the current height datum of Iran is based on the orthometric system but the effect of gravity variation was not applied in height parameter. Furthermore, the height systems of most neighbouring countries are defined as normal height. Connection of networks can be useful for the unification of height datum, geodynamics researches and optimal adjustment of levelling network. The new quasi-geoid model based on a recent EGM2008 global geo-potential model was created to solve the mentioned problem. The main purpose of the present study is to discuss the results of a research project in which a gravimetric quasi-geoid model for Iran was computed based on the least-squares modification of Stokes' formula. The evaluation is made using 475 GPS/levelling height anomalies covering the major parts of the country except the mountainous areas to the North and West. After a 7-parameter fit, the most promising attempt achieved a RMS value of 19 cm for the residuals based on the GPS/levelling data.  相似文献   

9.
We address possibilities of minimising environmental risks using statistical features of current-driven propagation of adverse impacts to the coast. The recently introduced method for finding the optimum locations of potentially dangerous activities (Soomere et al. in Proc Estonian Acad Sci 59:156–165, 2010) is expanded towards accounting for the spatial distributions of probabilities and times for reaching the coast for passively advecting particles released in different sea areas. These distributions are calculated using large sets of Lagrangian trajectories found from Eulerian velocity fields provided by the Rossby Centre Ocean Model with a horizontal resolution of 2 nautical miles for 1987–1991. The test area is the Gulf of Finland in the northeastern Baltic Sea. The potential gain using the optimum fairways from the Baltic Proper to the eastern part of the gulf is an up to 44% decrease in the probability of coastal pollution and a similar increase in the average time for reaching the coast. The optimum fairways are mostly located to the north of the gulf axis (by 2–8 km on average) and meander substantially in some sections. The robustness of this approach is quantified as the typical root mean square deviation (6–16 km) between the optimum fairways specified from different criteria. Drastic variations in the width of the ‘corridors’ for almost optimal fairways (2–30 km for the average width of 15 km) signifies that the sensitivity of the results with respect to small changes in the environmental criteria largely varies in different parts of the gulf.  相似文献   

10.
The effects of drought on plants have been extensively documented in water-limited systems. However, its effects on soil are seldom considered because of the lack of comparative data on profile soil water content (SWC). A dried soil layer (DSL) within the soil profile is a typical indication of soil drought caused by climate change and/or ill-advised human practices. The regional spatial variability, dominant factors, and predictive models of DSL under forestland were explored in the present study. SWC at 0–600 cm of 125 pre-selected sites across the entire Loess Plateau was measured, and then two evaluation indices of DSL (the thickness of DSL, DSLT; SWC within the DSL, DSL–SWC) were calculated. The corresponding soil, topography, plant, and meteorology factors (a total of 28 variables) for each site were also measured. Most of the forestlands across the Plateau had DSL formation within the soil profile (102 of 125 study sites). The DSL levels were considered to be serious, with DSLT generally exceeding 300 cm with a mean DSL–SWC of only 7.9% (field capacity (FC) = 18.1%). DSLT and DSL–SWC indicated a moderate and strong spatial dependence with ranges of 69 and 513 km, respectively. Thicker DSLs were mainly distributed in the center of the Plateau, whereas thinner DSLs were observed in the southern and southeastern parts. In contrast, DSL–SWC distributions demonstrated an obvious decreasing trend from the southeast to the northwest. Dominant factors affecting DSLT under forestlands were FC, bulk density, slope gradient, slope aspect, and capillary water content; while dominant factors for DSL–SWC were FC, aridity, sand content, altitude, vegetation coverage, and evaporation. Moreover, predictive models developed by multiple regressions were relatively accurate when predicting DSLs, especially DSL–SWC. Understanding these associations with DSLs formation in forestland is helpful for efficient water resource management, silviculture, and eco-environment restoration on the Loess Plateau and in other water-limited regions around the world.  相似文献   

11.
This study proposed a methodology using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and multivariate time series model for the analysis of drought both in time and space. The methodology proposed was then applied to evaluate the vulnerability of agricultural drought of major river basins in Korea. First, the three-month SPI data from 59 rain gauge stations over the Korean Peninsula were analyzed by deriving and spatially characterizing the EOFs. The shapes of major estimated EOFs were found to well reflect the observed spatial pattern of droughts. Second, the coefficient time series of estimated EOFs were then fitted by a multivariate time series model to generate the SPI data for 10,000 years, which were used to derive the annual maxima series of areal average drought severity over the Korean Peninsula. These annual maxima series were then analyzed to determine the mean drought severity for given return periods. Four typical spatial patterns of drought severity could also be selected for those return periods considered. This result shows that the southern part of the Korean Peninsula is most vulnerable to drought than the other parts. Finally, the agricultural drought vulnerability was evaluated by considering the potential water supply from dams. In an ideal case, when all the maximum dam storage was assumed to be assigned to agriculture, all river basins in Korea were found to have the potential to overcome a 30-year drought. However, under more realistic conditions considering average dam storage and water allocation priorities, most of the river basins could not overcome a 30-year drought.  相似文献   

12.
Receiver functions are widely employed to detect P-to-S converted waves and are especially useful to image seismic discontinuities in the crust. In this study we used the P receiver function technique to investigate the velocity structure of the crust beneath the Northwest Zagros and Central Iran and map out the lateral variation of the Moho boundary within this area. Our dataset includes teleseismic data (M b ≥ 5.5, epicentral distance from 30° to 95°) recorded at 12 three-component short-period stations of Kermanshah, Isfahan and Yazd telemetry seismic networks. Our results obtained from P receiver functions indicate clear Ps conversions at the Moho boundary. The Moho depths were firstly estimated from the delay time of the Moho converted phase relative to the direct P wave beneath each network. Then, we used the P receiver function inversion to find the properties of the Moho discontinuity such as depth and velocity contrast. Our results obtained from PRF are in good agreement with those obtained from the P receiver function modeling. We found an average Moho depth of about 42 km beneath the Northwest Zagros increasing toward the Sanandaj-Sirjan Metamorphic Zone and reaches 51 km, where two crusts (Zagros and Central Iran) are assumed to be superposed. The Moho depth decreases toward the Urmieh-Dokhtar Cenozoic volcanic belt and reaches 43 km beneath this area. We found a relatively flat Moho beneath the Central Iran where, the average crustal thickness is about 42 km. Our P receiver function modeling revealed a shear wave velocity of 3.6 km/s in the crust of Northwest Zagros and Central Iran increasing to 4.5 km/s beneath the Moho boundary. The average shear wave velocity in the crust of UDMA as SSZ is 3.6 km/s, which reaches to 4.0 km/s while in SSZ increases to 4.3 km/s beneath the Moho.  相似文献   

13.
Stomach cancer is the second most common cancer in Iranian men and the fourth most common cancer in Iranian women. The incidence rate of this cancer in Iranian men is almost 2.5 times that in women. The objective of this study was to investigate the trend of stomach cancer incidence rate in Iran in an 8-year time period (2003–2010) and also update the incidence estimates of stomach cancer. Data from a total number of 41,830 patients diagnosed with stomach cancer according to the International Classification of Diseases (C16) in 2003–2010 were analyzed. We used Bayesian spatial and Bayesian spatio-temporal models to study the relative risk and trend of stomach cancer incidence rate in Iran. Out of 41,830 stomach cancer registered patients, 72% were male. The average smoothed SIRs were 0.79, 0.82 and 0.78 for the general, female and male population, respectively. This shows a nearly stable incidence rate. The northwest of Iran had the highest incidence rate of stomach cancer. The trend of this rate was declining to the lowest rate in the southeast of the country. The estimated values of coefficient of the trend term for general, female and male population in this model were 0.0085, ? 0.018 and 0.0041, which indicate almost a stable fixed trend. The map of temporal trends also showed that although the incidence rate of this cancer is to some extent stable, in general, in the central and in the east of the country the incidence relative risk has increased over time. The prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection, Lower socioeconomic status and Iodine deficiency were speculated to be relevant factors for the high incidence rates of stomach cancer in the northwest of Iran. Preventive measures in the north and northwest of Iran could have an effect on controlling this cancer in these areas.  相似文献   

14.
By combining living trees and archaeological wood, the annual mean temperatures were reconstructed based on ring-width indices of the mid-eastern Tibetan Plateau for the past 2485 years. The climate variations revealed by the reconstruction indicate that there were four periods to have average temperatures similar to or even higher than that mean of 1970 to 2000 AD. A particularly notable rapid shift from cold to warm, we call it the “Eastern Jin Event”, occurred from 348 AD to 413 AD. Calculation results show that the temperature variations over the mid-eastern Tibetan Plateau are not only representative for large parts of north-central China, but also closely correspond to those of the entire Northern Hemisphere over long time scales. During the last 2485 years, the downfall of most major dynasties in China coincides with intervals of low temperature. Compared with the temperature records in other regions of China during the last 1000 years, this reconstruction from the Tibetan Plateau shows a significant warming trend after the 1950s. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40525004, 40599420, 40890051), National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2007BAC30B00, 2004CB720200, 2006CB400503) and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA, Grant to Hans W. Linderholm)  相似文献   

15.
Understanding the changes in streamflow and associated driving forces is crucial for formulating a sustainable regional water resources management strategy in the environmentally fragile karst area of the southwest China. This study investigates the spatio-temporal changes in streamflow of the Guizhou region and their linkage with meteorological influences using the Mann–Kendall trend analysis, singular-spectrum analysis (SSA), Lepage test, and flow duration curves (FDCs). The results demonstrate that: (1) the streamflow in the flood-season (June–August) during 1956–2000 increased significantly (confidence level ≥95%) in most catchments, closely consistent with the distinct increasing trend of annual rainfall over wet-seasons. The timings of abrupt change for streamflow in most catchments are found to occur at 1986; (2) streamflow in the Guizhou region experiences significant seasonal changes prior/posterior to 1986, and in most catchments the coefficient of variation of monthly streamflow increases; (3) spatial changes in streamflow indicate that monthly streamflow in the north-west decreases but increases in other parts; (4) the spatial high- and low-flow map (Q 5 and Q 95) reveals an increase in the extremely large streamflow in the five eastern catchments but a decrease in the extremely low streamflow in the four eastern catchments and three western catchments during 1987–2000. An increase in streamflow, particularly extreme flows, during the flood season would increase the risk of extreme flood events, while a decrease in streamflow in the dry season is not beneficial to vegetation restoration in this ecologically fragile region.  相似文献   

16.
We computed P and S receiver functions to investigate the lithospheric structure beneath the northwest Iran and compute the Vp/Vs ratio within the crust of this seismologically active area. Our results enabled us to map the lateral variations of the Moho as well as those of the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary (LAB) beneath this region. We selected data from teleseismic events (Mb > 5.5, epicentral distance between 30° and 95° for P receiver functions and Mb > 5.7, epicentral distance between 60° and 85° for S receiver functions) recorded from 1995 to 2008 at 8 three-component short-period stations of Tabriz Telemetry Seismic Network. Our results obtained from P receiver functions indicate clear conversions at the Moho boundary. The Moho depth was firstly estimated from the delay time of the Moho converted phase relative to the direct P wave. Then we used the H-Vp/Vs stacking algorithm of Zhu and Kanamori to estimate the crustal thickness and Vp/Vs ratio underneath the stations with clear Moho multiples. We found an average Moho depth of 48 km, which varies between 38.5 and 53 km. The Moho boundary showed a significant deepening towards east and north. This may reveal a crustal thickening towards northeast possibly due to the collision between the Central Iran and South Caspian plates. The obtained average Vp/Vs ratio was estimated to be 1.76, which varies between 1.73 and 1.82. The crustal structure was also determined by modeling of P receiver functions. We obtained a three-layered model for the crust beneath this area. The thickness of the layers is estimated to be 6–11, 18–35, and 38–53 km, respectively. The average of the shear wave velocity was calculated to be 3.4 km/s in the crust and reaches 4.3 km/s below the Moho discontinuity. The crustal thickness values obtained from P receiver functions are in good agreement with those derived by S receiver functions. In addition, clear conversions with negative polarity were observed at ~8.7 s in S receiver functions, which could be related to the conversion at the LAB. This may show a relatively thin continental lithosphere of about 85 km implying that the lithosphere was influenced by various geodynamical reworking processes in the past.  相似文献   

17.
An attempt is made to evaluate the impact of the three dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation within the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) modeling system to simulate two heavy rainfall events which occured on 26–27 July 2005 and 27–30 July 2006. During the 26–27 July 2005 event, the unprecedented localized intense rainfall 90–100 cm was recorded over the northeast parts of Mumbai city; however, southern parts received only 10 cm. Model simulation with the data assimilation experiment is reasonably well predicted for the rainfall intensity (800 mm) in 24 h and with accurate location over Mumbai agreeing with observation. Divergence, vorticity, vertical velocity and moisture parameters are evaluated during the various stages of the event. It is noticed that maximum convergence and vorticity during the mature stage; at the same time the vertical velocity also follows a similar trend during the period in the assimilation experiment. Vorticity budget terms over the location of heavy rainfall revealed that the contribution of the positive tilting term produced positive vorticity which triggered the convection and negative contribution to vorticity from the tilting term to precede the dissipation of the system. Model simulations from the second rain event, the off-shore trough at sea level along the west coast of India, is well represented after assimilation of observations during day-1 and day-2 as compared to the control simulations; the orientation of the off-shore trough is well matched with that of the observed. The intensity and spatial distribution of the rainfall has considerably improved in the assimilation simulation. The statistical skill scores also revealed that the precipitation forecast during the period has appreciably improved due to assimilation of observations. The results of this study indicate a positive impact of the 3DVAR assimilation on the simulation of heavy rainfall events.  相似文献   

18.
For the first time, we present the variation of crust–mantle boundary beneath the northeast Iran continental collision zone which is genetically part of the Alpine–Himalayan orogeny and beneath Central Iran which is a less-deformed tectonic block. The boundary was imaged by stacking teleseismic P–S converted phases and shows a strong variation of Moho from 27.5 km under Central Iran to 55.5 km beneath the Binalud foreland basin. The thickest crust is not located beneath the high topography of the Kopeh Dagh and Binalud mountain ranges suggesting that these mountain ranges are not supported by a crustal root. The simple gravity modeling of the Bouguer anomaly supports this idea.  相似文献   

19.
Reliable estimation of missing data is an important task for meteorologists, hydrologists and environment protection workers all over the world. In recent years, artificial intelligence techniques have gained enormous interest of many researchers in estimating of missing values. In the current study, we evaluated 11 artificial intelligence and classical techniques to determine the most suitable model for estimating of climatological data in three different climate conditions of Iran. In this case, 5 years (2001–2005) of observed data at target and neighborhood stations were used to estimate missing data of monthly minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation variables. The comparison includes both visual and parametric approaches using such statistic as mean absolute errors, coefficient of efficiency and skill score. In general, it was found that although the artificial intelligence techniques are more complex and time-consuming models in identifying their best structures for optimum estimation, but they outperform the classical methods in estimating missing data in three distinct climate conditions. Moreover, the in-filling done by artificial neural network rivals that by genetic programming and sometimes becomes more satisfactory, especially for precipitation data. The results also indicated that multiple regression analysis method is the suitable method among the classical methods. The results of this research proved the high importance of choosing the best and most precise method in estimating different climatological data in Iran and other arid and semi-arid regions.  相似文献   

20.
Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for drought forecasting   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  
Drought causes huge losses in agriculture and has many negative influences on natural ecosystems. In this study, the applicability of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for drought forecasting and quantitative value of drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), is investigated. For this aim, 10 rainfall gauging stations located in Central Anatolia, Turkey are selected as study area. Monthly mean rainfall and SPI values are used for constructing the ANFIS forecasting models. For all stations, data sets include a total of 516 data records measured between in 1964 and 2006 years and data sets are divided into two subsets, training and testing. Different ANFIS forecasting models for SPI at time scales 1–12 months were trained and tested. The results of ANFIS forecasting models and observed values are compared and performances of models were evaluated. Moreover, the best fit models have been also trained and tested by Feed Forward Neural Networks (FFNN). The results demonstrate that ANFIS can be successfully applied and provide high accuracy and reliability for drought forecasting.  相似文献   

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