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1.
The study focuses on the spatial and temporal variations of intense/extreme rainfall events over Gujarat State (India) during the period 1970–2014. Average monsoon rainfall for the state shows a significant increasing trend, with an increase of 48 mm/decade. Some of the stations in the Saurashtra region show a statistically significant increasing trend but none of the stations in the state show a decreasing trend. The increasing trend in monsoon rainfall is very significant for the past three decades, with an increase of 167 mm/decade. Instead of fixed absolute threshold values, relative threshold values of rainfall corresponding to the 95th, 98th, 99th and 99.5th percentiles for each station have been proposed to represent heavy, very heavy, intense and extreme rainfall, which varied between 70–120, 105–160, 130–210 and 165–280 mm, respectively. Significant increasing trends are observed for the frequency of heavy and very heavy rainfall events over the state. 相似文献
2.
ABSTRACT This study assesses the climate change impact on rainfall and drought incidents across Nigeria. Linear regression, Mann-Kendall tests and lag-1 serial correlation were adopted to analyse the trends and variability of rainfall and drought at 18 synoptic stations. Analysis of annual precipitation series indicates an increase in rainfall amounts at all stations, except Minna, Gusau and Yola. Seventeen of the 18 stations recorded at least one main drought period, between 1983 and 1987. A decreasing trend for the standardized precipitation index SPI-12 series was seen at Yola station, while the other stations showed an increasing trend. Also, Nigeria witnessed more annual rainfall totals but with high variability within the rainy months of the year in the first 15 years of the 21st century compared to the 20th century. Such variability in rainfall may have a significant effect on groundwater resources and the hydrology of Nigeria. 相似文献
3.
Spatial variability of the annual rainfall over drier regions of India is studied by examining the variations in the arid areas. A long period (1871–1984) arid area series has been prepared for the entire country, including the two broad subregions of North India and Peninsular India, using annual rainfall data from 306 well distributed stations. Following an objectively determined criterion based on rainfall amount alone, the yearly area under arid conditions is obtained by totalling areas which received annual rainfall totals less than 560 mm. The interannual variability of the arid area series is large and its distribution is highly right-skewed, demonstrating large spatial variations in the annual rainfall over India. Statistical tests do not suggest any significant long-term trend in the arid area series, but persistently low values of the arid area after 1941 are noteworthy. Implications for the study of risk analysis and assessment of drought and desertification processes are discussed. 相似文献
4.
Investigation of spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Iran over the last half century 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
Keivan Khalili Mohammad Nazeri Tahoudi Rasoul Mirabbasi Farshad Ahmadi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(4):1205-1221
Investigation of the precipitation phenomenon as one of the most important meteorological factors directly affecting access to water resources is of paramount importance. In this study, the precipitation concentration index (PCI) was calculated using annual precipitation data from 34 synoptic stations of Iran over a 50-year period (1961–2010). The trend of precipitation and the PCI index were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test after removing the effect of autocorrelation coefficients in annual and seasonal time scales. The results of zoning the studied index at annual time scale revealed that precipitation concentration follows a similar trend within two 25-year subscales. Furthermore, the PCI index in central and southern regions of the country, including the stations of Kerman, Bandarabbas, Yazd, Zahedan, Shahrekord, Birjand, Bushehr, Ahwaz, and Esfahan indicates a strong irregularity and high concentration in atmospheric precipitations. In annual time scale, none of the studied stations, had shown regular concentration (PCI < 10). Analyzing the trend of PCI index during the period of 1961–2010 witnessed an insignificant increasing (decreasing) trend in 16 (15) stations for winter season, respectively, while it faced a significant negative trend in Dezful, Saghez, and Hamedan stations. Similarly, in spring, Kerman and Ramsar stations exhibited a significant increasing trend in the PCI index, implying significant development of precipitation concentration irregularities in these two stations. In summer, Gorgan station showed a strong and significant irregularity for the PCI index and in autumn, Tabriz and Zahedan (Babolsar) stations experienced a significant increasing (decreasing) trend in the PCI index. At the annual time scale, 50 % of stations experienced an increasing trend in the PCI index. Investigating the changes in the precipitation trend also revealed that in annual time scale, about 58 % of the stations had a decreasing trend. In winter, which is the rainiest season in Iran, about 64 % of stations experienced a decreasing trend in precipitation that caused an increasing trend in PCI index. Comparing the spatial distribution of PCI index within two 25 years sub-periods indicated that the PCI index of the second sub-period increased in the spring time scale that means irregularity of precipitation distribution has been increased. But in the other seasons any significant variations were not observed. Also in the annual time scale the PCI index increased in the second sub-period because of the increasing trend of precipitation. 相似文献
5.
The survey of climatic drought trend in Iran 总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2
Hossein Bari Abarghouei Mohammad Amin Asadi Zarch Mohammad Taghi Dastorani Mohammad Reza Kousari Mehdi Safari Zarch 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(6):851-863
Drought is one of the most important natural hazards in Iran. Therefore, drought monitoring has become a point of concern
for most of the researchers. In the present study, the changes and trend of drought was surveyed, under the current global
climate changes, by non parametric Mann–Kendall statistical test for 42 synoptic stations at different places of Iran. Standardized
Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated to recognize the drought condition at different time scales (3, 6, 9, 12, 18 and
24 months’ time series) for analyzing the drought trend in the recent 30 years. The obtained results have indicated a significant
negative trend of drought in many parts of Iran, especially the South-East, West and South-West regions of the country. According
to the results, although some parts of Iran such as North (around the Caspian Sea) and Northeast show no significant trend
but in other parts of country, the severity of drought has increased during the last 30 years. 相似文献
6.
ABSTRACTThe aim of the present paper was to improve understanding of the rainfall dynamics in Bas-Congo and Kinshasa provinces, in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The first objective of the study was achieved by analysing the spatial correlations of monthly, seasonal, annual and individual monthly rainfall amounts of Kinshasa and Bas-Congo. The second objective was achieved through investigating and quantifying the temporal trends and their spatial variations. The results demonstrated notably high average inter-station correlation of +0.63 for dry season series, followed by monthly rainfall series with an average inter-station correlation of +0.58. However, there was no station with a stable monthly rainfall regime, i.e. with mean precipitation concentration index lower than 10% (it varies between 14.2 and 21.9%). Moreover, Kinshasa experienced an increase of rainfall with an average annual rate of change of +4.59 mm/year for the period 1961–2006. The results will be helpful for efficient water resources management and for mitigating the adverse impacts of future extreme drought or flood occurrences.
Editor M.C. Acreman Associate editor N. Verhoest 相似文献
7.
Abstract Trends in rainfall series were investigated at 16 stations in Ghana over the period 1960–2005. Time series were first de-correlated using an effective pre-whitening methodology and then submitted to the resampling-based Mann-Kendall test. Field significances were assessed using the regional average Kendall statistic. Although no significant changes were observed in annual rainfall, the analysis reveals: (a) a reduction in the number of wet season days totalling less than 20 mm of rainfall, between latitudes 6° and 9.5°N; (b) a delay (about 0.5 d year‐1) in the wet season onset at several locations throughout the country; and (c) a lengthening (about 0.1 d year‐1) of rainless periods during the wet season in the south and centre of Ghana. All these changes, which remained insignificant at more than half of the individual stations, were found to be regionally significant at the 95% confidence level. The results highlight the importance of evaluating regional significance when investigating climate trends. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Lacombe, G., McCartney, M., and Forkuor, G., 2012. Drying climate in Ghana over the period 1960–2005: evidence from the resampling-based Mann-Kendall test at local and regional levels. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1594–1609. 相似文献
8.
Based on daily precipitation data of more than 2000 Chinese stations and more than 50 yr, we constructed time series of extreme precipitation based on six different indices for each station: annual and summer maximum(top-1) precipitation,accumulated amount of 10 precipitation maxima(annual, summer; top-10), and total annual and summer precipitation.Furthermore, we constructed the time series of the total number of stations based on the total number of stations with top-1 and top-10 annual extreme precipitation for the whole data period, the whole country, and six subregions, respectively. Analysis of these time series indicate three regions with distinct trends of extreme precipitation:(1) a positive trend region in Southeast China,(2) a positive trend region in Northwest China, and(3) a negative trend region in North China. Increasing(decreasing)ratios of 10–30% or even 30% were observed in these three regions. The national total number of stations with top-1 and top-10 precipitation extremes increased respectively by 2.4 and 15 stations per decade on average but with great inter-annual variations.There have been three periods with highly frequent precipitation extremes since 1960:(1) early 1960 s,(2) middle and late 1990 s,and(3) early 21 st century. There are significant regional differences in trends of regional total number of stations with top-1 and top-10 precipitation. The most significant increase was observed over Northwest China. During the same period, there are significant changes in the atmospheric variables that favor the decrease of extreme precipitation over North China: an increase in the geopotential height over North China and its upstream regions, a decrease in the low-level meridional wind from South China coast to North China, and the corresponding low moisture content in North China. The extreme precipitation values with a50-year empirical return period are 400–600 mm at the South China coastal regions and gradually decrease to less than 50 mm in Northwest China. The mean increase rate in comparison with 20-year empirical return levels is 6.8%. The historical maximum precipitation is more than twice the 50-year return levels. 相似文献
9.
Despite the importance of mountain ranges as water providers, knowledge of their climate variability is still limited, mostly due to a combination of data scarcity and heterogeneous orography. The tropical Andes share many of the main features of mountain ranges in general, and are subject to several climatic influences that have an effect on rainfall variability. Although studies have addressed the large-scale variation, the basin scale has received little attention. Thus, the purpose of this study was to obtain a better understanding of rainfall variability in the tropical Andes at the basin scal, utilizing the Paute River basin of southern Ecuador as a case study. Analysis of 23 rainfall stations revealed a high spatial variability in terms of: (i) large variations of mean annual precipitation in the range 660–3400 mm; (ii) the presence of a non-monotonic relation between annual precipitation and elevation; and (iii) the existence of four, sometimes contrasting, rainfall regimes. Data from seven stations for the period 1964–1998 was used to study seasonality and trends in annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation. Seasonality is less pronounced at higher elevations, confirming that in the páramo region, the main water source for Andean basins, rainfall is well distributed year round. Additionally, during the period of record, no station has experienced extreme concentrations of annual rainfall during the wet season, which supports the concept of mountains as reliable water providers. Although no regional or basin-wide trends are found for annual precipitation, positive (negative) trends during the wet (dry) season found at four stations raises the likelihood of both water shortages and the risk of precipitation-triggered disasters. The study demonstrates how variable the precipitation patterns of the Andean mountain range are, and illustrates the need for improved monitoring. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
In Part 1 we demonstrated the applicability of stochastic models to predicting the characteristics of point drought events within any planning period by means of a case study (Mohan S, Sahoo PK (2007) Hydrological Processes 21 : this issue). In addition, studies on regional droughts are important in the context of regional level planning and evolving management strategies. The small number of drought events from a particular streamflow or rainfall series, when subjected to statistical analysis in order to predict future occurrences, produces results that are not very reliable. To overcome this difficulty, we propose using a long sequence of synthetically generated annual rainfall series at various rain‐gauge stations of a region, and multiyear regional droughts were derived from both historic and generated series. The key parameters for a successful regional multiyear drought study are the critical area ratio and the critical level, and the area affected by the drought can be ascertained using these parameters. The important regional drought parameters were determined and their suitable probability distributions were arrived at by studying a total of nine possible probability models; these models can be used in predicting the longest regional drought duration and the greatest regional drought severity with a given return period. The effect of change of critical parameters on the regional drought parameters is also studied and reported. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
11.
J. DA COSTA 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):487-488
Abstract The drought event which reached severe levels in 1972 and 1973 caused a major disaster in the Sahalian and sub-Sahalian zones in Africa. This disaster has drawn attention to the need for data surveys and detailed studies for meaningful long-term measures to combat the effects of future droughts. The study reported in this paper is an attempt to assess the hydrological aspects of the drought event in Nigeria in 1972 and 1973. There exist relatively long and reliable records of rainfall within the drought zone, while records for runoff, water level and groundwater are few and far between. Data available are analysed to determine evidence of trend and persistence (short and long-term). An examination of the rainfall records showed that extreme dry years at all the stations tended to recur at about the same time. The time interval between these extreme dry years was about 30 years. It was also observed from the spectral analysis of the records that most of the spectra for all the stations showed a generally high level of variance at low frequency. The limited information on runoff and groundwater precludes a detailed statistical analysis from being carried out on the annual series of runoff. However, the runoff data at some stations snowed that the magnitude of runoff in the drought year 1972/1973 was about 22–72 per cent of the average value for the length of record available (about eight years). Moreover, the long-term water-level record of Lake Chad revealed a similar trend for the occurrence of extreme dry years to that observed in the rainfall record. 相似文献
12.
Agricultural productivity in South Africa is negatively affected by drought as a result of frequent periodic dry spells and increasing crop water demands resulting in poor crop development and low yields. Thus, we embarked on this study which aims at investigating dry spell occurrences in relation to growing season of maize in the Luvuvhu River Catchment. Daily rainfall data (1945–2014) from 12 stations which represent the catchment fairly well was utilized in this study. Three consecutive planting dates were staggered based on three consecutive onsets of the rainy season. Dry spells were categorized into three groups: short, medium and long dry spells. The data was then subjected to theoretical distribution fitting using the Anderson–Darling goodness-of-fit test; and probabilities of occurrence were computed using a probabilistic model that best fits the data. Trend analysis was performed on the frequency of dry spells per growing period using the non-parametric Spearman's rank correlation test. Out results indicated high probabilities (≥80%) of short dry spells at all the stations irrespective of the timing of planting. Further analysis revealed that a risk of yield reduction with planting following the first onset of rains was higher than that with planting following the second and third onsets. In order to minimize this risk, farmers can be advised to plant between mid-November to mid-December. Trend analysis indicated no trend for all the various dry spell lengths except for Thohoyandou with a decreasing trend and Sigonde with a weak increasing trend in long dry spells. Such findings can be used to describe drought conditions for improvement of agricultural productivity and food security, in a given area. 相似文献
13.
Seasonal and annual trends of changes in rainfall, rainy days, heaviest rain and relative humidity have been studied over the last century for nine different river basins in northwest and central India. The majority of river basins have shown increasing trends both in annual rainfall and relative humidity. The magnitude of increased rainfall for considered river basins varied from 2–19% of mean per 100 years. The maximum increase in rainfall is observed in the Indus (lower) followed by the Tapi river basin. Seasonal analysis shows maximum increase in rainfall in the post‐monsoon season followed by the pre‐monsoon season. There were least variations in the monsoon rainfall during the last century and winter rainfall has shown a decreasing trend. Most of the river basins have experienced decreasing trends in annual rainy days with a maximum decrease in the Mahanadi basin. The heaviest rain of the year has increased from 9–27 mm per 100 years over different river basins with a maximum of 27 mm for the Brahamani and Subaranrekha river basins. A combination of increase in heaviest rainfall and reduction in the number of rainy days suggest the possibility of increasing severity of floods. Such information is useful in the planning, development and management of water resources in the study area. Further, the majority of river basins have also experienced an increasing trend in relative humidity both on seasonal and annual scales. An increase in annual mean relative humidity for six river basins has been found in the range of 1–18% of mean per 100 years, while a decrease for three river basins from ? 1 to ? 13% of mean per 100 years was observed, providing a net increase in the study area by 2·4% of mean per 100 years. It is understood that an increase in areal extent of vegetation cover as well as rainfall over the last century has increased the moisture in the atmosphere through enhanced evapotranspiration, which in turn has increased the relative humidity. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
14.
Analysis of spatial and temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is important in arid and semi‐arid regions where water resources are limited. The main aim of this study was to analyse the spatial distribution and the annual, seasonal and monthly trends of the Penman–Monteith ETo for 21 stations in the arid and semi‐arid regions of Iran. Three statistical tests the Mann‐Kendall, Sen's slope estimator and linear regression were used for the analysis. The analysis revealed that ETo increased from January to July and deceased from July to December at almost all stations. Additionally, higher annual ETo values were found in the southeast of the study region and lower values in the northwest of the region. Although the results showed both positive and negative trends in annual ETo series, ETo generally increased, significantly so in six (～30%) of the stations. Analysis of the impacts of meteorological variables on the temporal trends of ETo indicated that the increasing trend of ETo was most likely due to a significant increase in minimum air temperature, while decreasing trend of ETo was mainly caused by a significant decrease in wind speed. At the sites where increasing ETo trends were statistically significant, the rate of increase varied from (+)8·36 mm/year at Mashhad station to (+)31·68 mm/year at Iranshahr station. On average, an increasing trend of (+)4·42 mm/year was obtained for the whole study area during the last four decades. Seasonal and monthly ETo have also tended to increase at the majority of the stations. The greatest numbers of significant trends were observed in winter on the seasonal time‐scale and in September on the monthly time‐scale. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2)
Abstract The study of changes in annual rainfall in the Lake Chad basin during the 20th century is based on the analysis of 47 stations, i.e. a total of about 1600 station-years for the time series with more than 25 years of data. As previously observed in western and Sahelian Africa, robust tests of shift in time series identify a significant change in mean from the beginning of the 1960s between the latitudes 11 and 13°N, and a little later in this decade for the northern stations. The analysis of decadal rainfall shows that the 1950s decade was very humid and the next three decades were drier. These dry conditions were more and more severe until the 1980s. Data available after 1990 do not show any inversion in the trend. The annual rainfall decreases from south to north, and the regional gradient has changed from 1.5 mm km?1 in the 1950s to 1.2 mm km?1 in the 1980s between the latitudes 10 and 14°N. 相似文献
16.
The stable isotope analysis of all major rain events from Moinabad (MB), Rajendranagar (RN) and Osmanasagar (OS) reservoir, three closely placed locations in Hyderabad, India, were carried out during the 2005 to 2008 period. The OS station recorded the highest amount of rainfall with an average value of 1000 mm, whereas the MB station recorded the lowest average rainfall of 790 mm. The stable isotope (δ18O) values of the precipitation samples during these period varied from ?11.43‰ to ?0.03‰ for the MB station, ?8.21‰ to 0.54‰ for the RN station and ?11.47‰ to 0.72‰ for the OS station. The d‐excess of precipitation at the three stations also showed considerable variations and revealed that the precipitation in the region undergoes significant modification through secondary evaporation during its fall. The possible causes for these observed spatial and temporal variations in amount and the isotopic composition of precipitation in a small geographical area within the city were studied. The observed variations may be attributed to the regional scale differences in water budget induced by rapid urbanisation activities in the city coupled with the differences in secondary effects undergone by the falling drops. This study elucidating changes in precipitation patterns in the city and its possible causes may largely help in its water balance calculation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
Co-seismic deformation derived from GPS observations during April 20th, 2013 Lushan Earthquake,Sichuan, China 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
We process the standard 30 s, static GPS data and the 1 s, high-rate GPS (HRGPS) data provided by the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China with GAMIT/GLOBK software package, and obtain the co-seismic displacements of near field and far field, and the epoch-by-epoch time series of HRGPS during Lushan earthquake. GPS data from about 20 sites in Sichuan province, which located between 40 and 450 km from the epicenter, are analyzed so as to study the characteristics of the static displacements and the dynamic crustal deformations, with periods ranging from several minutes to over a month. The result shows that: the static displacements caused by Lushan earthquake are limited to several centimeters; the nearest station SCTQ at 43 km from the epicenter has the largest static displacement of about 2 cm, while the other stations generally have insignificant displacements of less than 5 mm. the stations in the east of Sichuan–Yunnan region shifts 5–10 mm toward the southwest, and the stations in the middle-west of Sichuan Basin moves indistinctively 1–2 mm toward the northwest; station SCTQ has the largest kinematic displacement of about 4 and 3 cm peak-to-peak on the north and east component, respectively, and is much greater than the static permanent displacement; for the stations located at a distance greater than 150 km from the epicenter, the kinematic motions are generally insignificant; exceptionally, station SCNC and station SCSN in central Sichuan Basin have significant kinematic motions although they are more than 200 km away from the epicenter. 相似文献
18.
The spatial–temporal variation of dry and wet periods in Iran based on comparing SPI and RDI indices
Drought is a natural hazard which can cause harmful effects on water resources. To monitor drought, the use of an indicator and determination of wet and dry period trend seem to have an important role in quantifying the drought analysis. In this paper, in addition to the comparison of Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based on the most appropriate probability distribution function, it was tried to examine the trends of dry and wet periods based on the mentioned indices. Accordingly, the meteorological data of 30 synoptic stations in Iran (1960–2014) was used and the trend was analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test by eliminating the effect of any significant autocorrelation coefficients at 95% confidence level (modified Mann–Kendall). Comparing results between the time series of RDI and SPI drought indices based on statistical indicators (RMSE?<?0.434, R2?>?0.819 and T-statistic?<?0.419) in all studied stations revealed that the behavior of the two indices was roughly the same and the difference between them was not significant. The trend analysis results of RDI and SPI indices based on modified Mann–Kendall test showed that the variation of dry and wet periods was decreasing in most of the studied stations (five cases were significant). In addition, the results of the trend line slope of dry and wet periods related to the drought indices in the studied area indicated that the slope was negative for SPI and RDI indices in 70% and 50% of stations, respectively. 相似文献
19.
In semi‐arid Kenya, episodes of agricultural droughts of varying severity and duration occur. The occurrence of these agricultural droughts is associated with seasonal rainfall variability and can be reflected by seasonal soil moisture deficits that significantly affect crop performance and yield. The objective of this study was to stochastically simulate the behaviour of dry and wet spells and rainfall amounts in Iiuni watershed, Kenya. The stochastic behaviour of the longest dry and wet spells (runs) and largest rainfall amounts were simulated using a Markov (order 1) model. There were eight raingauge stations within the watershed. The entire analysis was carried out using probability parameters, i.e. mean, variance, simple and conditional probabilities of dry and rain days. An analysis of variance test (ANOVA ) was used to establish significant differences in rainfall characteristics between the eight stations. An analysis of the number of rain days and rainfall amount per rain day was done on a monthly basis to establish the distribution and reliability of seasonal rainfall. The graphic comparison of simulated cumulative distribution functions (Cdfs) of the longest spells and largest rainfall amounts showed Markovian dependence or persistence. The longest dry spells could extend to 24 days in the long rainy season and 12 in the short rainy season. At 50% (median) probability level, the largest rainfall amounts were 91 mm for the long rainy season and 136 mm for the short rainy season. The short rains were more reliable for crop production than the long rains. The Markov model performed well and gave adequate simulations of the spells and rainfall amounts under semi‐arid conditions. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献