共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 623 毫秒
1.
Yeugeniy M. Gusev Vladimir A. Semenov Olga N. Nasonova Evgeny E. Kovalev 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(8):1181-1199
Assessments of hydrological response to climatic changes are characterized by different types of uncertainties. Here, the uncertainty caused by weather noise associated with the chaotic character of atmospheric processes is considered. A technique for estimating such uncertainty in simulated water balance components based on application of the land surface model SWAP and the climate model ECHAM5 is described. The technique is applied for estimating the uncertainties in the simulated water balance components (precipitation, river runoff and evapotranspiration) of some northern river basins of Russia. It is shown that the larger the area of a basin the less the uncertainty. This dependency is smoothed by differences in natural conditions of the basins. Analysis of the spectral densities of water balance components shows that a river basin filters out high-frequency harmonics of spectral density of precipitation (corresponding to synoptic or sub-seasonal scale) during its transformation into evapotranspiration and especially into runoff.
EDITOR D. KoutsoyiannisASSOCIATE EDITOR H. Kreibich 相似文献
2.
ABSTRACTThe southern coast of the Caspian Sea in northern Iran is bordered by a mountain range with forested catchments which are susceptible to droughts and floods. This paper examines possible changes to runoff patterns from one of these catchments in response to climate change scenarios. The HEC-HMS rainfall–runoff model was used with downscaled future rainfall and temperature data from 13 global circulation models, and meteorological and hydrometrical data from the Casilian (or “Kassilian”) Catchment. Annual and seasonal predictions of runoff change for three future emissions scenarios were obtained, which suggest significantly higher spring rainfall with increased risk of flooding and significantly lower summer rainfall leading to a higher probability of drought. Flash floods arising from extreme rainfall may become more frequent, occurring at any time of year. These findings indicate a need for strategic planning of water resource management and mitigation measures for increasing flood hazards.
EDITOR M.C. Acreman ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned 相似文献
3.
A seasonal water budget analysis was carried out to quantify various components of the hydrological cycle using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Betwa River basin (43?500 km2) in central India. The model results were satisfactory in calibration and validation. The seasonal water budget analysis showed that about 90% of annual rainfall and 97% of annual runoff occurred in the monsoon season. A seasonal linear trend analysis was carried out to detect trends in the water balance components of the basin for the period 1973–2001. In the monsoon season, an increasing trend in rainfall and a decreasing trend in ET were observed; this resulted in an increasing trend in groundwater storage and surface runoff. The winter season followed almost the same pattern. A decreasing trend was observed in summer season rainfall. The study evokes the need for conservation structures in the study area to reduce monsoon runoff and conserve it for basin requirements in water-scarce seasons.
EDITOR Z.W. KundzewiczASSOCIATE EDITOR F. Hattermann 相似文献
4.
Climate change and runoff response were assessed for the Tizinafu River basin in the western Kunlun Mountains, China, based on isotope analysis. We examined climate change in the past 50 years using meteorological data from 1957 to 2010. Results of the Mann-Kendall non-parametric technique test indicated that temperature in the entire basin and precipitation in the mountains exhibited significant increasing trends. Climate change also led to significant increasing trends in autumn and winter runoff but not in spring runoff. By using 122 isotope samples, we investigated the variations of isotopes in different water sources and analysed the contributions of different water sources based on isotope hydrograph separation. The results show that meltwater, groundwater and rainfall contribute 17%, 40% and 43% of the annual streamflow, respectively. Isotope analysis was also used to explain the difference in seasonal runoff responses to climate change. As the Tizinafu is a precipitation-dependent river, future climate change in precipitation is a major concern for water resource management.
EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang 相似文献
5.
ABSTRACTA two-parameter monthly water balance model to simulate runoff can be used for a water resources planning programme and climate impact studies. However, the model estimates two parameters of transformation of time scale (c) and of the field capacity (SC) by a trial-and-error method. This study suggests a modified methodology to estimate the parameters c and SC using the meteorological and geological conditions. The modified model is compared with the Kajiyama formula to simulate the runoff in the Han River and International Hydrological Programme representative basins in South Korea. We show that the estimated c and SC can be used as the initial or optimal values for the monthly runoff simulation study in the model.
EDITOR M.C. Acreman; ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Kanae 相似文献
6.
Climate change impacts on surface water resources in the Rheraya catchment (High Atlas,Morocco) 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
This study aimed to quantify possible climate change impacts on runoff for the Rheraya catchment (225 km2) located in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco, south of Marrakech city. Two monthly water balance models, including a snow module, were considered to reproduce the monthly surface runoff for the period 1989?2009. Additionally, an ensemble of five regional climate models from the Med-CORDEX initiative was considered to evaluate future changes in precipitation and temperature, according to the two emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The future projections for the period 2049?2065 under the two scenarios indicate higher temperatures (+1.4°C to +2.6°C) and a decrease in total precipitation (?22% to ?31%). The hydrological projections under these climate scenarios indicate a significant decrease in surface runoff (?19% to ?63%, depending on the scenario and hydrological model) mainly caused by a significant decline in snow amounts, related to reduced precipitation and increased temperature. Changes in potential evapotranspiration were not considered here, since its estimation over long periods remains a challenge in such data-sparse mountainous catchments. Further work is required to compare the results obtained with different downscaling methods and different hydrological model structures, to better reproduce the hydro-climatic behaviour of the catchment.
EDITOR M.C. AcremanASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch 相似文献
7.
Projection of surface water resources in the context of climate change in typical regions of China 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Climate change and its impact on hydrological processes are overarching issues that have brought challenges for sustainable water resources management. In this study, surface water resources in typical regions of China are projected in the context of climate change. A water balance model based on the Fu rational function equation is established to quantify future natural runoff. The model is calibrated using data from 13 hydrological stations in 10 first-class water resources zones of China. The future precipitation and temperature series come from the ISI-MIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) climate dataset. Taking natural runoff for 1961–1990 as a baseline, the impacts of climate change on natural runoff are studied under three emissions scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Simulated results indicate that the arid and semi-arid region in the northern part of China is more sensitive to climate change compared to the humid and semi-humid region in the south. In the near future (2011–2050), surface water resources will decrease in most parts of China (except for the Liaozhong and Daojieba catchments), especially in the Haihe River Basin and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The decrement of surface water resources in the northern part of China is more than that in the southern part. For the periods 2011–2030 and 2031–2050, surface water resources are expected to decrease by 12–13% in the northern part of China, while those in the southern part will decrease by 7–10%.
EDITOR D. KoutsoyiannisASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch 相似文献
8.
Quantifying the relative contributions of different factors to runoff change is helpful for basin management, especially in the context of climate change and anthropogenic activities. The effect of snow change on runoff is seldom evaluated. We attribute the runoff change in the Heihe Upstream Basin (HUB), an alpine basin in China, using two approaches: a snowmelt-based water balance model and the Budyko framework. Results from these approaches show good consistency. Precipitation accounts for 58% of the increasing runoff. The contribution of land-cover change seems unremarkable for the HUB as a whole, where land-cover change has a major effect on runoff in each sub-basin, but its positive effect on increasing runoff in sub-basins 1 and 3 is offset by the negative effect in sub-basin 2. Snow change plays an essential role in each sub-basin, with a contribution rate of around 30%. The impact of potential evapotranspiration is almost negligible.
EDITOR D. KoutsoyiannisASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang 相似文献
9.
The identification of homogeneous precipitation regions has value in many water resources engineering applications (infrastructure planning, design, operations; climate forecasting, modelling). The objective of this paper is to assess the sensitivity of precipitation regions to the temporal resolution (monthly, seasonal, annual and the annual maximum series) of the data. The presented method uses the fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm to partition climate sites into statistically homogeneous precipitation regions. The regions are validated using an approach based on L-moment statistics. The method is conducted in two climatically different study areas in western and eastern Canada. There does not appear to be a relationship between the spatial distributions of the regions formed using different temporal resolutions of the precipitation data. It is recommended to delineate precipitation regions that are specific to the task at hand, and to select a temporal resolution that is consistent with the final application of the regional precipitation dataset.
EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR T. Kjeldsen 相似文献
10.
ABSTRACTEvaluation of a recession-based “top-down” model for distributed hourly runoff simulation in macroscale mountainous catchments is rare in the literature. We evaluated such a model for a 3090 km2 boreal catchment and its internal sub-catchments. The main research question is how the model performs when parameters are either estimated from streamflow recession or obtained by calibration. The model reproduced observed streamflow hydrographs (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency up to 0.83) and flow duration curves. Transferability of parameters to the sub-catchments validates the performance of the model, and indicates an opportunity for prediction in ungauged sites. However, the cases of parameter estimation and calibration excluding the effects of runoff routing underestimate peak flows. The lower end of the recession and the minimum length of recession segments included are the main sources of uncertainty for parameter estimation. Despite the small number of calibrated parameters, the model is susceptible to parameter uncertainty and identifiability problems.
EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Carsteanu 相似文献
11.
AbstractThis study modified the BTOPMC (Block-wise TOPMODEL with the Muskingum-Cunge routing method) distributed hydrological model to make it applicable to semi-arid regions by introducing an adjustment coefficient for infiltration capacity of the soil surface, and then applied it to two catchments above the dams in the Karun River basin, located in semi-arid mountain ranges in Iran. The application results indicated that the introduced modification improved the model performance for simulating flood peaks generated by infiltration excess overland runoff at a daily time scale. The modified BTOPMC was found to fulfil the need to reproduce important signatures of basin hydrology for water resource development, such as annual runoff, seasonal runoff, low flows and flood flows. However, it was also very clear that effective model use was significantly constrained by the scarcity of ground-gauged precipitation data. Considerable efforts to improve the precipitation data acquisition should precede water resource development planning.Editor D. Koutsoyiannis 相似文献
12.
Djigbo Félicien Badou Evison Kapangaziwiri Bernd Diekkrüger Jean Hounkpè Abel Afouda 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(5):715-728
West Africa experienced severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s, posing a threat to water resources. A wetter climate more recently suggests recovery from the drought. The Mann-Kendall trend and Theil-Sen’s slope estimator were applied to detect probable trends in weather elements in four sub-basins of the Niger River Basin between 1970 and 2010. The cross-entropy method was used to detect breakpoints in rainfall and runoff, Spearman’s rank test for correlation between the two, and cross-correlation analysis for possible lags. Results showed an overall increase in rainfall and runoff and a decrease in sunshine duration. Spearman’s coefficients suggest significant (5%) moderate to strong rainfall–runoff correlation for three sub-basins. A significant lower runoff was observed around 1979, with a rainfall break around 1992, indicating possible cessation of the drought. Temperatures increased significantly, at 0.02–0.05°C year-1, with a negative wind speed trend for most stations. Half of the stations exhibited an increase in potential evapotranspiration.
EDITOR M.C. AcremanASSOCIATE EDITOR Not assigned 相似文献
13.
Future changes in reference evapotranspiration (ET0) are of increasing importance in assessing the potential impacts on hydrology and water resources systems of more pronounced climate change. This study assesses the applicability of the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in projecting ET0, and investigates the seasonal and spatial patterns of future ET0 based on general circulation models (GCMs) across the Haihe River Basin. The results indicate that SDSM can downscale ET0 well in term of different basin-averaged measures for the HadCM3 and CGCM3 GCMs. HadCM3 has a much superior capability in capturing inter-annual variability compared to CGCM3 and thus is chosen as the sole model to assess the changes in future ET0. There are three homogeneous sub-regions of the Haihe River Basin: Northwest, Northeast and Southeast. Change points are detected at around 2050 and 2080 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. The Northwest is revealed to have a slight to strong increase in ET0, while the Northeast and the Southeast tend to experience a pattern change from decrease to increase in ET0.
EDITOR M.C. AcremanASSOCIATE EDITOR J. Thompson 相似文献
14.
ABSTRACTThe MHD-INPE model was applied in the Ji-Parana Basin, a 30 000 km2 catchment located in the southwest of the Amazon Basin which has lost more than 50% of its forest since the 1980s, to simulate land use and land cover change impacts on runoff generation process and how they are related to basin topography. Simulation results agree with observational studies in the sense that fast response processes are significant in sub-basins with steep slopes while in basins with gentle topography, the impacts are most visible in slow-response hydrological processes. On the other hand, the model is not able to capture the dependence of LUCC impacts on spatial scales. These discrepancies are probably associated with limitations in the spatial representation of heterogeneities within the model, which become more relevant at larger scales. We also tested the hypothesis that secondary forest growth should be able to compensate the decrease in evapotranspiration due to forest–cropland or forest–grassland conversion at a regional scale. Results showed that despite the small fraction of secondary forest estimated on the basin, the higher evapotranspiration efficiency of this type of forest counterbalances a large fraction of the LUCC impacts on evapotranspiration. This result suggests that enhanced transpiration due to secondary forest could explain, at least in part, the lack of clear LUCC signals in discharge series at larger scales.
EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR T. Wagener 相似文献
15.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):989-1005
AbstractA combination of water balances and rainfall—runoff regressions is used to calculate infiltration, overland flow, baseflow and change to the surface water reservoir, on a monthly basis; evapotranspiration from the underground reservoir, on an annual basis; and a lag phase of maximum infiltration and maximum baseflow within a hydrological year. The water balance equations are written for catchment areas formed on crystalline rocks and located in temperate climates. The regression lines are fitted to precipitations and river flows. In a first run, the model is tested with the Corgo River hydrographic basin, a small watershed in the Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro province, northern Portugal. The results compare favourably with results of other groups, working under similar environmental conditions. The sensitivity of the model to changes in the basin characteristics and climate is tested by a second run using data from the Terva River basin, a nearby catchment that is much smaller than the Corgo basin and has a much lower effective precipitation, defined here as a difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. As a consequence of having a lower effective precipitation, the river dry-out starts earlier in the Terva (May) than in the Corgo (June). 相似文献
16.
David Love Stefan Uhlenbrook Gerald Corzo-Perez Steve Twomlow Pieter van der Zaag 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):687-703
Abstract Two types of monthly water balance models at basin scale are used: PE models use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) as their observed input data, whereas P models need only precipitation. Calibration proceeds by comparing model runoff and observed runoff. Calibration is entirely automatic with the exclusion of subjective elements. All models differ only by their actual evapotranspiration equations. PE models from previous papers are generalized essentially by replacing the constant evapotranspiration parameter by a periodic one, thus increasing the number of parameters by two (a “parameter” is an unknown constant to be estimated, and which is a characteristic of the river basin to be described). P models use a periodic “driving force”, which is intended to represent periodicity of hydrological phenomena, normally originating in the (unavailable) PET time series. These eight PE models and three P models are then applied to 55 river basins in 10 countries with widely diverging climates and soil conditions. A marked improvement of model performance in about one third of the basins is due to the introduction of the above mentioned periodic functions. Even when PET data are available it is sometimes useful to consider P models. P models scarcely perform less well than PE models. An engineer, wanting to try out as few models as possible on a given river basin, can restrict his attention to the optimization of two or three models. The paper is an extension of a long effort towards monthly water balance models, and is believed to give a solution in most circumstances. 相似文献
17.
Rainfall–runoff models with different conceptual structures for the hydrological processes can be calibrated to effectively reproduce the hydrographs of the total runoff, while resulting in water budget components that are essentially different. This finding poses an open question on the reliability of rainfall–runoff models in reproducing hydrological components other than those used for calibration. In an effort to address this question, we use data from the Glafkos catchment in western Greece to calibrate and compare the ENNS model, a research-oriented lumped model developed for the river Enns in Austria developed for the river Enns in Austria, with the operational MIKE SHE model. Model performance is assessed in the light of the conceptual/structural differences of the modelled hydrological processes, using indices calculated independently for each year, rather than for the whole calibration period, since the former are stricter. We show that even small differences in the representation of hydrological processes may impact considerably on the water budget components that are not measured (i.e. not used for model calibration). From all water budget components, direct runoff exhibits the highest sensitivity to structural differences and related model parameters.
EDITOR M.C. AcremanASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang 相似文献
18.
AbstractThis article addresses the critical need for a better quantitative understanding of how water resources from the Hérault River catchment in France have been influenced by climate variability and the increasing pressure of human activity over the last 50 years. A method is proposed for assessing the relative impacts of climate and growing water demand on the decrease in discharge observed at various gauging stations in the periods 1961–1980 and 1981–2010. An annual water balance at the basin scale was calculated first, taking into account precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, water withdrawals and water discharge. Next, the evolution of the seasonal variability in hydroclimatic conditions and water withdrawals was studied. The catchment was then divided into zones according to the main geographical characteristics to investigate the heterogeneity of the climatic and human dynamics. This delimitation took into account the distribution of climate, topography, lithology, land cover and water uses, as well as the availability of discharge series. At the area scale, annual water balances were calculated to understand the internal changes that occurred in the catchment between both past periods. The decrease in runoff can be explained by the decrease in winter precipitation in the upstream areas and by the increase during summer in both water withdrawals and evapotranspiration in the downstream areas, mainly due to the increase in temperature. Thus, water stress increased in summer by 35%. This work is the first step of a larger research project to assess possible future changes in the capacity to satisfy water demand in the Hérault River catchment, using a model that combines hydrological processes and water demand.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz 相似文献
19.
Sean W. Fleming 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(16):2849-2859
ABSTRACTIncreased demand associated with population or economic growth, and decreased supply under some climatic shifts, obviously contribute to water scarcity. As a fresh perspective, we offer a generic theoretical treatment using a computational “maquette”, employing parameterizations to avoid assumptions about the origin and scale of climate and demand changes. The results suggest a distinct (and more subtle) point: the sensitivities of water stress to changes in both the mean and the variance of hydroclimate are modulated by demand level. Theoretical behaviours generated by the reduced-complexity model are surprisingly intricate, including profound nonlinearities and bifurcations. These may form a lower bound on the dynamical complexity of the demand–supply–scarcity nexus. Overall, the outcomes suggest that demand growth substantially intensifies and nonlinearizes water stress sensitivities to secular climate variation, and, in particular, that the interactions between demand changes and second-order hydroclimatic non-stationarity may produce non-intuitive water scarcity impacts requiring much closer study.
EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR N. Ilich 相似文献
20.
AbstractWater availability is one of the most important factors for economic development in the Middle East. The Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was used to assess present and future water demand and supply in Syria till 2050. Nonconventional water resources, climate change, development, industrial growth, regional cooperation, and implementation of new water saving techniques/devices were considered important factors to include in the analysis using the WEAP model. Six scenarios were evaluated depending on the actual situation, climate change, best available technology, advanced technology, regional cooperation, and regional conflict. The results display a vital need for new water resources to balance the unmet water demands. Climate change will have a major effect on Syrian water resources; possible regional conflict will also to a major extent affect water balance. However, regional cooperation and using the best available technology can help in minimizing the gap between supply and demand.
EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned 相似文献