共查询到10条相似文献，搜索用时 203 毫秒
1.
ABSTRACTWater resource management involves public investments with long-ranging impacts that traditional prediction approaches cannot address. These are increasingly being critiqued because (1) there is an absence of feedbacks between water and society; (2) the models are created by domain experts who hand them to decision makers to implement; and (3) they fail to account for global forces on local water resources. Socio-hydrological models that explicitly account for feedbacks between water and society at multiple scales and facilitate stakeholder participation can address these concerns. However, they require a fundamental change in how we think about prediction. We suggest that, in the context of long-range predictions, the goal is not scenarios that present a snapshot of the world at some future date, but rather projection of alternative, plausible and co-evolving trajectories of the socio-hydrological system. This will both yield insights into cause–effect relationships and help stakeholders identify safe or desirable operating space. 相似文献
2.
The modulation of radiative processes by changes in water vapor and cloudiness is at the origin of important feedbacks which control climate variability as well as climate changes. These feedbacks are especially active in the intertropical area, where it is possible to diagnose a combination of partially compensating positive and negative feedbacks. The characteristics and the strength of those feedbacks is closely associated with the dynamical regimes in which they develop. Reverse changes in dynamical patterns may cause a modulation of the radiative processes. A first approach to these problems is to distinguish between two ascending and subsiding circulation patterns. This bimodality of the circulation is well established in the tropical area, and favors the use of simplified models as an appropriate tool to carry out a first-order quantification of these processes. In particular, this combination of radiative and dynamical feedbacks characterizes the development of the monsoons and their variability. Simple conceptual models can thus serve to characterize some of the factors which will affect the intraseasonal variations of the monsoon. 相似文献
3.
As human water demand is increasing worldwide, pressure on available water resources grows and their sustainable exploitation is at risk. To mimic changes in exploitation intensity and the connecting feedbacks between surface water and groundwater systems, a dynamic attribution of demand to water resources is necessary. However, current global-scale hydrological models lack the ability to do so. This study explores the dynamic attribution of water demand to simulated water availability. It accounts for essential feedbacks, such as return flows of unconsumed water and riverbed infiltration. Results show that abstractions and feedbacks strongly affect water allocation over time, particularly in irrigated areas. Also residence time of water is affected, as shown by changes in low flow magnitude, frequency, and timing. The dynamic representation of abstractions and feedbacks makes the model a suitable tool for assessing spatial and temporal impacts of changing global water demand on hydrology and water resources. 相似文献
4.
A new surface runoff parameterization with subgrid-scale soil heterogeneity for land surface models 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
Soil heterogeneity plays an important role in determining surface runoff generation mechanisms. At the spatial scales represented by land surface models used in regional climate model and/or global general circulation models (GCMs) for numerical weather prediction and climate studies, both infiltration excess (Horton) and saturation excess (Dunne) runoff may be present within a studied area or a model grid cell. Proper modeling of surface runoff is essential to a reasonable representation of feedbacks in the land–atmosphere system. In this paper, a new surface runoff parameterization that dynamically represents both Horton and Dunne runoff generation mechanisms within a model grid cell is presented. The new parameterization takes into account of effects of soil heterogeneity on Horton and Dunne runoff. A series of numerical experiments are conducted to study the effects of soil heterogeneity on Horton and Dunne runoff and on soil moisture storage under different soil and precipitation conditions. The new parameterization is implemented into the current version of the hydrologically based variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land surface model and tested over three watersheds in Pennsylvania. Results show that the new parameterization plays a very important role in partitioning the water budget between surface runoff and soil moisture in the atmosphere–land coupling system. Significant underestimation of the surface runoff and overestimation of subsurface runoff and soil moisture could be resulted if the Horton runoff mechanism were not taken into account. Also, the results show that the Horton runoff mechanism should be considered within the context of subgrid-scale spatial variability of soil properties and precipitation. An assumption of time-invariant spatial distribution of potential infiltration rate may result in large errors in surface runoff and soil moisture. In addition, the total surface runoff from the new parameterization is less sensitive to the choice of the soil moisture shape parameter of the distribution. 相似文献
5.
We review the methodologies used to quantify climate feedbacks in coupled models. The method of radiative kernels is outlined and used to illustrate the dependence of lapse rate, water vapor, surface albedo, and cloud feedbacks on (1) the length of the time average used to define two projected climate states and (2) the time separation between the two climate states. Except for the shortwave component of water vapor feedback, all feedback processes exhibit significant high-frequency variations and intermodel variability of feedback strengths for sub-decadal time averages. It is also found that the uncertainty of lapse rate, water vapor, and cloud feedback decreases with the increase in the time separation. The results suggest that one can substantially reduce the uncertainty of cloud and other feedbacks with the accumulation of accurate, long-term records of satellite observations; however, several decades may be required. 相似文献
6.
ABSTRACTThe arguments presented in Melsen et al. advance ideas in the “Panta Rhei” decade (2013–2022) of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, which focuses on change in hydrology and society. While we reiterate that, despite acknowledged shortcomings, the enterprise of integrating societal feedbacks into hydrological models is beneficial in prediction and adaptive management, we also agree with the sentiments of the authors. In response, we offer concrete steps the socio-hydrologic community can take to educate modellers to become aware about unconscious biases embedded in model structure and clearly communicate assumptions. We stress the need for “knowledge brokers” that can help modellers work with stakeholders, instead of doing everything themselves. We also caution, however, against the danger of over-reaching. Young scholars already pay a big price by having to master both the natural and social sciences. As coupled human–water problems increase in societal importance, along with calls for more holistic thinking, we also need to promote an academic culture that rewards reaching across the aisle. 相似文献
7.
The arguments presented in Melsen et al. advance ideas in the “Panta Rhei” decade (2013–2022) of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, which focuses on change in hydrology and society. While we reiterate that, despite acknowledged shortcomings, the enterprise of integrating societal feedbacks into hydrological models is beneficial in prediction and adaptive management, we also agree with the sentiments of the authors. In response, we offer concrete steps the socio-hydrologic community can take to educate modellers to become aware about unconscious biases embedded in model structure and clearly communicate assumptions. We stress the need for “knowledge brokers” that can help modellers work with stakeholders, instead of doing everything themselves. We also caution, however, against the danger of over-reaching. Young scholars already pay a big price by having to master both the natural and social sciences. As coupled human–water problems increase in societal importance, along with calls for more holistic thinking, we also need to promote an academic culture that rewards reaching across the aisle. 相似文献
8.
《Advances in water resources》1999,23(2):121-131
The anthropogenic increase of the atmospheric greenhouse effect is expected to bring important perturbations of the climate system during the next century. The models which are used to compute scenarios of this future climate change nevertheless suffer from important uncertainties which make impossible the detailed prediction of regional impacts. Characterizing these uncertainties as precisely as possible constitutes a necessary step to assess a climate risk and realize local impact studies. We describe the manifestation of water vapour and cloud feedbacks in the present models, and show that satellite data, in particular, may constitute an important source of information to constrain more efficiently the models. 相似文献
9.
Early‐stage aeolian bedforms, or protodunes, are elemental in the continuum of dune development and act as essential precursors to mature dunes. Despite this, we know very little about the processes and feedback mechanisms that shape these nascent bedforms. Whilst theory and conceptual models have offered some explanation for protodune existence and development, until now, we have lacked the technical capability to measure such small bedforms in aeolian settings. Here, we employ terrestrial laser scanning to measure morphological change at the high frequency and spatial resolution required to gain new insights into protodune behaviour. On a 0.06 m high protodune, we observe vertical growth of the crest by 0.005 m in two hours. Our direct measurements of sand transport on the protodune account for such growth, with a reduction in time‐averaged sediment flux of 18% observed over the crestal region. Detailed measurements of form also establish key points of morphological change on the protodune. The position on the stoss slope where erosion switches to deposition is found at a point 0.07 m upwind of the crest. This finding supports recent models that explain vertical dune growth through an upwind shift of this switching point. Observations also show characteristic changes in the asymmetric cross‐section of the protodune. Flow‐form feedbacks result in a steepening of the lee slope and a decline in lower stoss slope steepness (by 3°), constituting a reshaping of protodune form towards more mature dune morphology. The approaches and findings applied here, (a) demonstrate an ability to quantify processes at requisite spatial and temporal scales for monitoring early‐stage dune evolution, (b) highlight the crucial role of form‐flow feedbacks in enabling early‐stage bedform growth, alluding to a fluctuation in feedbacks that require better representation in dune models, and (c) provide a new stimulus for advancing understanding of aeolian bedforms. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
The radiative energy budget of the middle atmosphere and its parameterization in general circulation models 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The thermal regime of the middle atmosphere is determined to a great extent by the balance between the incoming solar and outgoing infrared radiation. To account for these processes in numerical models of the middle atmosphere, parameterizations that are capable of quickly and accurately calculating infrared cooling and solar heating rates are required. These parameterizations should include the breakdown of local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) conditions and allow for feedbacks by ensuring that dependencies on all input parameters are accounted for. This paper discusses the major mechanisms responsible for maintaining the radiative energy budget of the middle atmosphere and presents a brief review of approaches and numerical schemes currently available for use in general circulation models. The main focus of the paper is on the approaches and schemes designed for non-LTE treatment. 相似文献