共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
In this work, a fully nonparametric geostatistical approach to estimate threshold exceeding probabilities is proposed. To estimate the large-scale variability (spatial trend) of the process, the nonparametric local linear regression estimator, with the bandwidth selected by a method that takes the spatial dependence into account, is used. A bias-corrected nonparametric estimator of the variogram, obtained from the nonparametric residuals, is proposed to estimate the small-scale variability. Finally, a bootstrap algorithm is designed to estimate the unconditional probabilities of exceeding a threshold value at any location. The behavior of this approach is evaluated through simulation and with an application to a real data set. 相似文献
2.
Space deformation modelling and estimation techniques based on Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) methods play an important role in nonparametric approaches to the covariance structure analysis of the spatiotemporal processes underlying environmental studies. Since any related procedure depends on the planar MDS representation, the stability of the estimated dispersion, together with the determination of the most influential stations in the estimation of the dispersion space, are important issues that must be analysed before performing the final mapping. In this paper, stability analysis, both in terms of the MDS model and of the variogram function, as well as concerning the derivation of kriging interpolation estimates, is addressed using a special analytical jackknife procedure. Furthermore, the influence of each station in the solution given is assessed, thus providing relevant information regarding not only the MDS procedure but also the interpolation process and the variogram estimation of the spatial dispersion. 相似文献
3.
This paper introduces an extension of the traditional stationary linear coregionalization model to handle the lack of stationarity. Under the proposed model, coregionalization matrices are spatially dependent, and basic univariate spatial dependence structures are non-stationary. A parameter estimation procedure of the proposed non-stationary linear coregionalization model is developed under the local stationarity framework. The proposed estimation procedure is based on the method of moments and involves a matrix-valued local stationary variogram kernel estimator, a weighted local least squares method in combination with a kernel smoothing technique. Local parameter estimates are knitted together for prediction and simulation purposes. The proposed non-stationary multivariate spatial modeling approach is illustrated using two real bivariate data examples. Prediction performance comparison is carried out with the classical stationary multivariate spatial modeling approach. According to several criteria, the prediction performance of the proposed non-stationary multivariate spatial modeling approach appears to be significantly better. 相似文献
4.
Spatial prediction of river channel topography by kriging 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Topographic information is fundamental to geomorphic inquiry, and spatial prediction of bed elevation from irregular survey data is an important component of many reach‐scale studies. Kriging is a geostatistical technique for obtaining these predictions along with measures of their reliability, and this paper outlines a specialized framework intended for application to river channels. Our modular approach includes an algorithm for transforming the coordinates of data and prediction locations to a channel‐centered coordinate system, several different methods of representing the trend component of topographic variation and search strategies that incorporate geomorphic information to determine which survey data are used to make a prediction at a specific location. For example, a relationship between curvature and the lateral position of maximum depth can be used to include cross‐sectional asymmetry in a two‐dimensional trend surface model, and topographic breaklines can be used to restrict which data are retained in a local neighborhood around each prediction location. Using survey data from a restored gravel‐bed river, we demonstrate how transformation to the channel‐centered coordinate system facilitates interpretation of the variogram, a statistical model of reach‐scale spatial structure used in kriging, and how the choice of a trend model affects the variogram of the residuals from that trend. Similarly, we show how decomposing kriging predictions into their trend and residual components can yield useful information on channel morphology. Cross‐validation analyses involving different data configurations and kriging variants indicate that kriging is quite robust and that survey density is the primary control on the accuracy of bed elevation predictions. The root mean‐square error of these predictions is directly proportional to the spacing between surveyed cross‐sections, even in a reconfigured channel with a relatively simple morphology; sophisticated methods of spatial prediction are no substitute for field data. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
Pilar García-Soidán Raquel Menezes Óscar Rubiños 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(5):1207-1219
Generation of replicates of the available data enables the researchers to solve different statistical problems, such as the estimation of standard errors, the inference of parameters or even the approximation of distribution functions. With this aim, Bootstrap approaches are suggested in the current work, specifically designed for their application to spatial data, as they take into account the dependence structure of the underlying random process. The key idea is to construct nonparametric distribution estimators, adapted to the spatial setting, which are distribution functions themselves, associated to discrete or continuous random variables. Then, the Bootstrap samples are obtained by drawing at random from the estimated distribution. Consistency of the suggested approaches will be proved by assuming stationarity from the random process or by relaxing the latter hypothesis to admit a deterministic trend. Numerical studies for simulated data and a real data set, obtained from environmental monitoring, are included to illustrate the application of the proposed Bootstrap methods. 相似文献
6.
7.
Mapping geomorphic variables geostatistically, specifically by kriging, runs into difficulties when there is trend. The reason is that the variogram required for the kriging must be of residuals from any trend, which in turn cannot be estimated optimally by the usual method of trend surface analysis because the residuals are correlated. The difficulties can be overcome by the use of residual maximum likelihood (REML) to estimate both the trend and the variogram of the residuals simultaneously. We summarize the theory of REML as it applies to kriging in the presence of trend. We present the equations to show how estimates of the trend are combined with kriging of residuals to give empirical best linear unbiased predictions (E‐BLUPs). We then apply the method to estimate the height of the sub‐Upper‐Chalk surface beneath the Chiltern Hills of southeast England from 238 borehole data. The variogram of the REML residuals is substantially different from that computed by ordinary least squares (OLS) analysis. The map of the predicted surface is similar to that made from kriging with the OLS variogram. The variances, however, are substantially larger because (a) they derive from a variogram with a much larger sill and (b) they include the uncertainty of the estimate of the trend. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
Total least squares (TLS) can solve the issue of parameter estimation in the errors-invariables (EIV) model, however, the estimated parameters are affected or even severely distorted when the observation vector and coefficient matrix are contaminated by gross errors. Currently, the use of existing robust TLS (RTLS) methods for the EIV model is unreasonable. Original residuals are directly used in most studies to construct the weight factor function, thus the robustness for the structure space is not considered. In this study, a robust weighted total least squares (RWTLS) algorithm for the partial EIV model is proposed based on Newton-Gauss method and the equivalent weight principle of general robust estimation. The algorithm utilizes the standardized residuals to construct the weight factor function and employs the median method to obtain a robust estimator of the variance component. Therefore, the algorithm possesses good robustness in both the observation and structure spaces. To obtain standardized residuals, we use the linearly approximate cofactor propagation law for deriving the expression of the cofactor matrix of WTLS residuals. The iterative procedure and precision assessment approach for RWTLS are presented. Finally, the robustness of RWTLS method is verified by two experiments involving line fitting and plane coordinate transformation. The results show that RWTLS algorithm possesses better robustness than the general robust estimation and the robust total least squares algorithm directly constructed with original residuals. 相似文献
9.
Jörg Benndorf Joachim Menz 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(3):627-637
Modern methods of geostatistics deliver an essential contribution to Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). These methods allow for spatial interpolation, forecast and risk assessment of expected impact during and after mining projects by integrating different sources of data and information. Geostatistical estimation and simulation algorithms are designed to provide both, a most likely forecast as well as information about the accuracy of the prediction. The representativeness of these measures depends strongly on the quality of the inferred model parameters, which are mainly defined by the parameters of the variogram or the covariance function. Available data may be sparse, trend affected and of different data type making the inference of representative geostatistical model parameters difficult. This contribution introduces a new method for best fitting of the geostatistical model parameters in the presence of a trend, which utilizes the empirical and theoretical differences between Universal Kriging and trend-predictions. The method extends well known approaches of cross validation in two aspects. Firstly, the model evaluation is not only limited to sample data locations but is performed on any prediction locations of the attribute in the domain. Secondly, it extends the measure used in cross validation, based on a single point replacement by using error curves. These allow defining rings of influence representing errors resulting from separate variogram lags. By analyzing the different variogram lags the fit of the complete covariance can be assessed and the influence of the several model parameters separated. The use of the proposed method in an EIA context is illustrated in a case study related on the prediction of mining-induced ground movements. 相似文献
10.
The variogram is a key parameter for geostatistical estimation and simulation. Preferential sampling may bias the spatial structure and often leads to noisy and unreliable variograms. A novel technique is proposed to weight variogram pairs in order to compensate for preferential or clustered sampling . Weighting the variogram pairs by global kriging of the quadratic differences between the tail and head values gives each pair the appropriate weight, removes noise and minimizes artifacts in the experimental variogram. Moreover, variogram uncertainty could be computed by this technique. The required covariance between the pairs going into variogram calculation, is a fourth order covariance that must be calculated by second order moments. This introduces some circularity in the calculation whereby an initial variogram must be assumed before calculating how the pairs should be weighted for the experimental variogram. The methodology is assessed by synthetic and realistic examples. For synthetic example, a comparison between the traditional and declustered variograms shows that the declustered variograms are better estimates of the true underlying variograms. The realistic example also shows that the declustered sample variogram is closer to the true variogram. 相似文献
11.
Rosaria Ignaccolo Jorge Mateu Ramon Giraldo 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(5):1171-1186
Functional data featured by a spatial dependence structure occur in many environmental sciences when curves are observed, for example, along time or along depth. Recently, some methods allowing for the prediction of a curve at an unmonitored site have been developed. However, the existing methods do not allow to include in a model exogenous variables that, for example, bring meteorology information in modeling air pollutant concentrations. In order to introduce exogenous variables, potentially observed as curves as well, we propose to extend the so-called kriging with external drift—or regression kriging—to the case of functional data by means of a three-step procedure involving functional modeling for the trend and spatial interpolation of functional residuals. A cross-validation analysis allows to choose smoothing parameters and a preferable kriging predictor for the functional residuals. Our case study considers daily PM10 concentrations measured from October 2005 to March 2006 by the monitoring network of Piemonte region (Italy), with the trend defined by meteorological time-varying covariates and orographical constant-in-time variables. The performance of the proposed methodology is evaluated by predicting PM10 concentration curves on 10 validation sites, even with simulated realistic datasets on a larger number of spatial sites. In this application the proposed methodology represents an alternative to spatio-temporal modeling but it can be applied more generally to spatially dependent functional data whose domain is not a time interval. 相似文献
12.
None of the processes of estimation currently available is fully acceptable to the geophysicist. Firstly, they all assume that the variable, be it seismic reflection time, rms velocities, Bouguer anomaly, etc.… is random, amenable to pure statistical considerations, and the processes all disregard the relationships which link the values of the variable in the different points of the domain under investigation. Secondly, they do not provide the geophysicist with any guideline for smoothing his data, as smoothing and estimation are considered two separate operations. Thirdly, they fail to offer a valid criterion of estimation and a measure of the estimation error. The krigeage process overcomes the above mentioned difficulties. It synthesizes the structural or “geostatistical’ characteristics of the variable by using a function called the variogram (variances of the increases of the variable with respect to distance and direction). It smoothes the variable, when necessary, as a function of the “nugget effect’ (value at the origin of the experimental variogram). It yields an optimum estimation of the variable by minimizing the estimation error, and it computes a measure of the reliability of the estimation, the variance of krigeage. The process is demonstrated herein with three examples of variograms on seismic and gravity data and an example of contouring of velocities, reflection times and depths of a productive layer in an oil field, with detection and correction of irregular data, smoothing of velocities, migration of depth points, and display of estimation error. 相似文献
13.
In this paper, we propose a novel approach for generating avalanche hazard maps based on the spatial dependence of avalanche runout altitudes. The right-truncated data are described with a Bayesian hierarchical model in which the spatio-temporal process is assumed to be the sum of independent spatial and temporal terms. Topography is roughly taken into account according to valley altitude and path exposition, and the spatial dependence is modelled with a Matérn covariance function. An application is performed to the Haute-Savoie region, French Alps. A spatial dependence in runout altitudes is identified, and an effective range of about 10 km is inferred. The temporal trend extracted highlights the increase of avalanche runout altitudes from 1955, attributed to both anthropogenic factors and climate warming. In a cross validation scheme, spatial predictions are provided on undocumented paths using kriging equations. All in all, although our model is unable to take into account small topographic features, it is a first-ever approach that produces very encouraging results. It could be enhanced in future work by incorporating a numerical physically-based code into the modelling. 相似文献
14.
Understanding how nitrogen transport across the landscape varies with landscape characteristics is important for developing sound nitrogen management policies. We used a spatially referenced regression analysis (SPARROW) to examine landscape characteristics influencing delivery of nitrogen from sources in a watershed to stream channels. Modelled landscape delivery ratio varies widely (by a factor of 4) among watersheds in the southeastern United States—higher in the western part (Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi) than in the eastern part, and the average value for the region is lower compared to other parts of the nation. When we model landscape delivery ratio as a continuous function of local‐scale landscape characteristics, we estimate a spatial pattern that varies as a function of soil and climate characteristics but exhibits spatial structure in residuals (observed load minus predicted load). The spatial pattern of modelled landscape delivery ratio and the spatial pattern of residuals coincide spatially with Level III ecoregions and also with hydrologic landscape regions. Subsequent incorporation into the model of these frameworks as regional scale variables improves estimation of landscape delivery ratio, evidenced by reduced spatial bias in residuals, and suggests that cross‐scale processes affect nitrogen attenuation on the landscape. The model‐fitted coefficient values are logically consistent with the hypothesis that broad‐scale classifications of hydrologic response help to explain differential rates of nitrogen attenuation, controlling for local‐scale landscape characteristics. Negative model coefficients for hydrologic landscape regions where the primary flow path is shallow ground water suggest that a lower fraction of nitrogen mass will be delivered to streams; this relation is reversed for regions where the primary flow path is overland flow. Published in 2009 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
Copula-based geostatistical modeling of continuous and discrete data including covariates 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
Hannes Kazianka Jürgen Pilz 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(5):661-673
It is common in geostatistics to use the variogram to describe the spatial dependence structure and to use kriging as the spatial prediction methodology. Both methods are sensitive to outlying observations and are strongly influenced by the marginal distribution of the underlying random field. Hence, they lead to unreliable results when applied to extreme value or multimodal data. As an alternative to traditional spatial modeling and interpolation we consider the use of copula functions. This paper extends existing copula-based geostatistical models. We show how location dependent covariates e.g. a spatial trend can be accounted for in spatial copula models. Furthermore, we introduce geostatistical copula-based models that are able to deal with random fields having discrete marginal distributions. We propose three different copula-based spatial interpolation methods. By exploiting the relationship between bivariate copulas and indicator covariances, we present indicator kriging and disjunctive kriging. As a second method we present simple kriging of the rank-transformed data. The third method is a plug-in prediction and generalizes the frequently applied trans-Gaussian kriging. Finally, we report on the results obtained for the so-called Helicopter data set which contains extreme radioactivity measurements. 相似文献
16.
《Geofísica Internacional》2014,53(2):163-181
This paper introduces a general nonparametric method for joint stochastic simulation of petrophysical properties using the Bernstein copula. This method consists basically in generating stochastic simulations of a given petrophysical property (primary variable) modeling the underlying empirical dependence with other petrophysical properties (secondary variables) while reproducing the spatial dependence of the first one.This multivariate approach provides a very flexible tool to model the complex dependence relationships of petrophysical properties. It has several advantages over other traditional methods, since it is not restricted to the case of linear dependence among variables, it does not require the assumption of normality and/or existence of moments.In this paper this method is applied to simulate rock permeability using Vugular Porosity and Shear Wave Velocity (S-Waves) as covariates in a carbonate double-porosity formation at well log scale. Simulated permeability values show a high degree of accuracy compared to the actual values. 相似文献
17.
Comparison of ordinary kriging and artificial neural network for spatial mapping of arsenic contamination of groundwater 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Mohammad Chowdhury Ali Alouani Faisal Hossain 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(1):1-7
In this technical note, we investigate the hypothesis that ‘non-linearity matters in the spatial mapping of complex patterns of groundwater arsenic contamination’. The spatial mapping pertained to data-driven techniques of spatial interpolation based on sampling data at finite locations.
Using the well known example of extensive groundwater contamination by arsenic in Bangladesh, we find that the use of a highly
non-linear pattern learning technique in the form of an artificial neural network (ANN) can yield more accurate results under
the same set of constraints when compared to the ordinary kriging method. One ANN and a variogram model were used to represent
the spatial structure of arsenic contamination for the whole country. The probability for successful detection of a well as
safe or unsafe was found to be atleast 15% larger than that by kriging under the country-wide scenario. The probability of
false hopes, which is a serious issue in public health monitoring was found to be significantly lower (by more than 10%) than
that by kriging. 相似文献
18.
变异函数是地统计学中区域化变量空间结构分析和空间局部插值的主要分析工具.理论变异函数模型的获取是地质统计学中的基础性工作,它是了解区域化变量的变异特征、进一步对地质统计学计算的必要环节.针对现有的理论变异函数的拟合方法,如人工拟合法、线性规划拟合法、加权多项式拟合法、目标规划拟合法等的不足之处,充分利用粒子群优化算法在求解非线性优化问题时具有的全局寻优的特点,提出基于粒子群优化的理论变异函数拟合方法.在实例应用中,分别利用粒子群优化算法和加权多项式拟合方法进行理论变异函数拟合,交叉验证结果表明粒子群优化算法预测精度较高,具有较强的稳健性. 相似文献
19.
Bulent Tutmez Uzay Kaymak A. Erhan Tercan 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2012,26(7):1013-1023
Spatial data analysis focuses on both attribute and locational information. Local analyses deal with differences across space whereas global analyses deal with similarities across space. This paper addresses an experimental comparative study to analyse the spatial data by some weighted local regression models. Five local regression models have been developed and their estimation capacities have been evaluated. The experimental studies showed that integration of objective function based fuzzy clustering to geostatistics provides some accurate and general models structures. In particular, the estimation performance of the model established by combining the extended fuzzy clustering algorithm and standard regional dependence function is higher than that of the other regression models. Finally, it could be suggested that the hybrid regression models developed by combining soft computing and geostatistics could be used in spatial data analysis. 相似文献
20.
T. I. Harrold A. Sharma S. Sheather 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2001,15(4):310-324
Mutual information is a generalised measure of dependence between any two variables. It can be used to quantify non-linear
as well as linear dependence between any two variables. This makes mutual information an attractive alternative to the use
of the correlation coefficient, which can only quantify the linear dependence pattern. Mutual information is especially suited
for application to hydrological problems, because the dependence between any two hydrologic variables is seldom linear in
nature. Calculation of the mutual information score involves estimation of the marginal and joint probability density functions
of the two variables. This paper uses nonparametric kernel density estimation methods to estimate the probability density
functions. Accurate estimation of the mutual information score using kernel methods requires selection of appropriate smoothing
parameters (bandwidths) for use with the kernels. The aim of this paper is to obtain a practical method for bandwidth selection
for calculation of the mutual information score. In this paper, the lag-one dependence structures of several autocorrelated
time series are analysed using mutual information (note that this produces the lag-one auto-MI score, the analog of the lag-one
autocorrelation). Empirical trials are used to select appropriate bandwidths for a range of underlying autoregressive and
autoregressive-moving average models with normal or near-normal parent distributions. Expressions for reasonable bandwidth
choices under these conditions are proposed. 相似文献