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1.
A typical agricultural water reservoir (AWR) of 2400 m2 area and 5 m depth, located in a semi‐arid area (southern Spain), was surveyed on a daily basis for 1 year. The annual evaporation flux was 102·7 W m?2, equivalent to an evaporated water depth of 1310 mm year?1. The heat storage rate G exhibited a clear annual cycle with a peak gain in April (G ～ 45 W m?2) and a peak loss in November (G ～ 40 W m?2), leading to a marked annual hysteretic trend when evaporation (λE) was related to net radiation (Rn). λE was strongly correlated with the available energy A, representing 91% of the annual AWR energy loss. The sensible heat flux H accounted for the remaining 9%, leading to an annual Bowen ratio in the order of 0·10. The equilibrium and advective evaporation terms of the Penman formula represented 76 and 24%, respectively, of the total evaporation, corresponding to a annual value of the Priestley–Taylor (P–T) coefficient (α) of 1·32. The P–T coefficient presented a clear seasonal pattern, with a minimum of 1·23 (July) and a maximum of 1·65 (December), indicating that, during periods of limited available energy, AWR evaporation increased above the potential evaporation as a result of the advection process. Overall, the results stressed that accurate prediction of monthly evaporation by means of the P–T formula requires accounting for both the annual cycle of storage and the advective component. Some alternative approaches to estimating Rn, G and α are proposed and discussed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
2.
Estimates of daily lake evaporation based on energy‐budget data are poor because of large errors associated with quantifying change in lake heat storage over periods of less than about 10 days. Energy‐budget evaporation was determined during approximately biweekly periods at a northern Minnesota, USA, lake for 5 years. Various combinations of shortwave radiation, air temperature, wind speed, lake‐surface temperature, and vapour‐pressure difference were related to energy‐budget evaporation using linear‐regression models in an effort to determine daily evaporation without requiring the heat‐storage term. The model that combined the product of shortwave radiation and air temperature with the product of vapour‐pressure difference and wind speed provided the second best fit based on statistics but provided the best daily data based on comparisons with evaporation determined with the eddy‐covariance method. Best‐model daily values ranged from ?0.6 to 7.1 mm/day over a 5‐year period. Daily averages of best‐model evaporation and eddy‐covariance evaporation were nearly identical for all 28 days of comparisons with a standard deviation of the differences between the two methods of 0.68 mm/day. Best‐model daily evaporation also was compared with two other evaporation models, Jensen–Haise and a mass‐transfer model. Best‐model daily values were substantially improved relative to Jensen–Haise and mass‐transfer values when daily values were summed over biweekly energy‐budget periods for comparison with energy‐budget results. 相似文献
3.
A computational fluid dynamics (CFD)‐based methodology is proposed to derive convective mass‐transfer coefficients (wind functions) that are required for estimating evaporation of water bodies with the mass‐transfer method. Three‐dimensional CFD was applied to model heat transfer in two water bodies: a Class‐A tank evaporimeter and an on‐farm artificial pond. The standard k–? model assuming isotropic turbulence was adopted to describe turbulent heat transport, whereas the heat and mass transfer analogy was assumed to derive the wind functions. The CFD‐derived wind functions were very similar to those empirically derived from the experimental water bodies. The evaporation rates calculated with the synthetic wind functions were in good agreement with hourly and daily evaporation measurements for the tank and pond, respectively. The proposed CFD‐approach is generalisable and cost effective, because it has low input data requirements. Besides, it provides additional capability of modelling the spatial distribution of the evaporation rate over the water surface. Although the application of CFD to water bodies evaporation modelling is still in development, it looks very promising. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
The combination of tree canopy cover and a free water surface makes the subcanopy environment of flooded forested wetlands unlike other aquatic or terrestrial systems. Subcanopy vapour fluxes and energy budgets represent key controls on water level and understorey climate but are not well understood. In a permanently flooded forest in south‐eastern Louisiana, USA, an energy balance approach was used to address (a) whether evaporation from floodwater under a forest canopy is solely energy limited and (b) how energy availability was modulated by radiation and changes in floodwater heat storage. A 5‐month continuous measurement period (June–November) was used to sample across seasonal changes in canopy activity and temperature regimes. Over this period, the subcanopy airspace was humid, maintaining saturation vapour pressure for 28% of the total record. High humidity coupled with the thermal inertia of surface water altered both seasonal and diel energy exchanges, including atypical phenomena such as frequent day‐time vapour pressure gradients towards the water surface. Throughout the study period, nearly all available energy was partitioned to evaporation, with minimal sensible heat exchange. Monthly mean evaporation ranged from 0.7 to 1.7 mm/day, peaking in fall when canopy senescence allowed greater radiation transmission; contemporaneous seasonal temperature shifts and a net release of stored heat from the surface water resulted in energy availability exceeding net radiation by 30% in October and November. Relatively stable energy partitioning matches Priestley–Taylor assumptions for a general model of evaporation in this ecosystem. 相似文献
5.
A Note has been published for this article in Hydrological Processes 18(4) 2004, 825. Both water and heat balances were studied in a conifer plantation watershed in south‐west Japan, within the warm‐temperate East Asia monsoon area. Forest cover in the watershed consists mainly of Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) and Japanese cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa) plantations. Precipitation and runoff have been observed since 1991, so evapotranspiration can be compared with the water balance. Two meteorological observation towers were built to monitor evapotranspiration in the watershed. The annual average precipitation, amount of runoff and losses were 2166, 1243 and 923 mm, respectively. The evapotranspiration (latent heat flux) agreed well with the water balance losses. The average annual evapotranspiration at the tower built in the centre of the watershed was 902 mm; evapotranspiration at the other tower, further upslope, was 875 mm. The observed evapotranspiration was 39% to 40% of the average precipitation (2166 mm). The mean net radiation was c. 2·6 GJ m?2 year?1, and is considered a representative value of the net radiation (Rn) in coniferous plantations in this region. This region is classified in the humid zone based on the ratio of net radiation (Rn) to the energy required to evaporate the rainfall (λR). The mean annual evaporation of canopy‐intercepted water was 356 mm or about 15% of the average precipitation. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
The nature of intra‐annual variability in the non‐advective heat fluxes affecting streams and rivers in Devon, UK was investigated through detailed monitoring of study reaches in an upland moorland catchment, below a regulating reservoir, and flowing through deciduous woodland and coniferous forest during the period May 1995 to April 1996. A clear pattern of seasonal variation was evident, whereby net radiation provided a heat source during the summer but a heat sink in the winter, as incoming short‐wave radiation declined and outgoing long‐wave radiation increased. Sensible transfer added heat to the study reaches in the summer but removed it during the winter, and bed conduction acted as a heat sink in the summer period but as a heat source in the winter months. Friction and evaporation added and removed heat, respectively, from the study reaches throughout the year, but the magnitude of these fluxes reflected seasonal variations in discharge and in wind speed. Water temperature generally followed the net non‐advective heat energy budget, which was positive in summer but negative in winter. Although a general pattern of seasonal variability in the non‐advective heat energy budget was evident, detailed differences in the nature and extent of intra‐annual variability were apparent between the study reaches and particularly between forested and non‐forested sites. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
J. W. Finch 《水文研究》2001,15(14):2771-2778
Estimates of evaporation from large open water bodies are required for a variety of purposes in water resource management. The equilibrium temperature approach provides a means of taking into account the heat storage in the water body. The evaporation predicted by a model based on this method is tested against measured evaporation from a reservoir at Kempton Park, UK. The evaporation and water temperature predicted by the model are in good agreement with the measurements. The mean annual evaporation is predicted to almost the same accuracy as the measurements. Estimates of the monthly predicted evaporation have root mean square errors about three times those of the measurements. The error in the mean annual evaporation estimated without taking the heat storage into account is 16%. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
Evapotranspiration is resilient in the face of land cover and climate change in a humid temperate catchment 
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下载免费PDF全文 Stephen K. Hamilton M. Z. Hussain Christopher Lowrie B. Basso G. P. Robertson 《水文研究》2018,32(5):655-663
In temperate humid catchments, evapotranspiration returns more than half of the annual precipitation to the atmosphere, thereby determining the balance available to recharge groundwaters and support stream flow and lake levels. Changes in evapotranspiration rates and, therefore, catchment hydrology could be driven by changes in land use or climate. Here, we examine the catchment water balance over the past 50 years for a catchment in southwest Michigan covered by cropland, grassland, forest, and wetlands. Over the study period, about 27% of the catchment has been abandoned from row‐crop agriculture to perennial vegetation and about 20% of the catchment has reverted to deciduous forest, and the climate has warmed by 1.14 °C. Despite these changes in land use, the precipitation and stream discharge, and by inference catchment‐scale evapotranspiration, have been stable over the study period. The remarkably stable rates of evapotranspirative water loss from the catchment across a period of significant land cover change suggest that rainfed annual crops and perennial vegetation do not differ greatly in evapotranspiration rates, and this is supported by measurements of evapotranspiration from various vegetation types based on soil water monitoring in the same catchment. Compensating changes in the other meteorological drivers of evaporative water demand besides air temperature—wind speed, atmospheric humidity, and net radiation—are also possible but cannot be evaluated due to insufficient local data across the 50‐year period. Regardless of the explanation, this study shows that the water balance of this landscape has been resilient in the face of both land cover and climate change over the past 50 years. 相似文献
9.
John L. Campbell Scott V. Ollinger Gerald N. Flerchinger Haley Wicklein Katharine Hayhoe Amey S. Bailey 《水文研究》2010,24(17):2465-2480
Long‐term data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire show that air temperature has increased by about 1 °C over the last half century. The warmer climate has caused significant declines in snow depth, snow water equivalent and snow cover duration. Paradoxically, it has been suggested that warmer air temperatures may result in colder soils and more soil frost, as warming leads to a reduction in snow cover insulating soils during winter. Hubbard Brook has one of the longest records of direct field measurements of soil frost in the United States. Historical records show no long‐term trends in maximum annual frost depth, which is possibly confounded by high interannual variability and infrequency of major soil frost events. As a complement to field measurements, soil frost can be modelled reliably using knowledge of the physics of energy and water transfer. We simulated soil freezing and thawing to the year 2100 using a soil energy and water balance model driven by statistically downscaled climate change projections from three atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models under two emission scenarios. Results indicated no major changes in maximum annual frost depth and only a slight increase in number of freeze–thaw events. The most important change suggested by the model is a decline in the number of days with soil frost, stemming from a concurrent decline in the number of snow‐covered days. This shortening of the frost‐covered period has important implications for forest ecosystem processes such as tree phenology and growth, hydrological flowpaths during winter, and biogeochemical processes in soil. Published in 2010 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
小时尺度水面蒸发可影响水面大气边界层热力和动力结构,分析湖泊小时尺度水面蒸发主要影响因素,选取准确模拟其特征的蒸发模型,将有助于改善流域天气预报和空气质量预报.基于太湖避风港站2012—2013年通量、辐射和气象观测数据,分析太湖小时尺度水面蒸发主要影响因子和3个模型(传统质量传输模型、Granger and Hedstrom经验模型、DYRESM模型)的模拟效果.结果表明:影响太湖小时尺度水面蒸发的主要因子为水气界面水汽压差和风速的乘积,而非净辐射.传统质量传输模型、Granger and Hedstrom经验模型、DYRESM模型模拟值与全年实测值的一致性系数分别为0.92、0.87和0.89,均方根误差分别为28.35、41.58和38.26 W/m~2.传统质量传输模型对太湖小时尺度水面蒸发的日变化和季节动态模拟效果最佳,其夜间模拟相对误差小于3%,除秋季外,其他季节的模拟绝对误差均小于4 W/m~2.Granger and Hedstrom经验模型系统性地高估太湖潜热通量,在大气较为稳定的午后(高估22~32 W/m~2)和冬季(高估72%)高估最为明显,模拟效果最差.DYRESM模型也系统地高估太湖潜热通量,模拟效果居中.考虑水汽交换系数随风速的变化特征将有助于改善传统质量传输模型和DYRESM模型对太湖小时尺度水面蒸发的模拟精度. 相似文献
11.
River water temperature is an important water quality parameter that also influences most aquatic life. Physical processes influencing water temperature in rivers are highly complex. This is especially true for the estimation of river heat exchange processes that are highly dependent on good estimates of radiation fluxes. Furthermore, very few studies were found within the stream temperature dynamic literature where the different radiation components have been measured and compared at the stream level (at microclimate conditions). Therefore, this study presents results on hydrometeorological conditions for a small tributary within Catamaran Brook (part of the Miramichi River system, New Brunswick, Canada) with the following specific objectives: (1) to compare between stream microclimate and remote meteorological conditions, (2) to compare measured long‐wave radiation data with those calculated from an analytical model, and (3), to calculate the corresponding river heat fluxes. The most salient findings of this study are (1) solar radiation and wind speed are parameters that are highly site specific within the river environment and play an important role in the estimation of river heat fluxes; (2) the incoming, outgoing, and net long‐wave radiation within the stream environment (under the forest canopy) can be effectively calculated using empirical formula; (3) at the study site more than 80% of the incoming long‐wave radiation was coming from the forest; (4) total energy gains were dominated by solar radiation flux (for all the study periods) followed by the net long‐wave radiation (during some periods) whereas energy losses were coming from both the net long‐wave radiation and evaporation. Conductive heat fluxes have a minor contribution from the overall heat budget (<3·5%); (5) the reflected short‐wave radiation at the water surface was calculated on average as 3·2%, which is consistent with literature values. Results of this study contribute towards a better understanding of river heat fluxes and water temperature models as well as for more effective aquatic resources and fisheries management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
Arctic spring landscapes are usually characterized by a mosaic of coexisting snow‐covered and bare ground patches. This phenomenon has major implications for hydrological processes, including meltwater production and runoff. Furthermore, as indicated by aircraft observations, it affects land‐surface–atmosphere exchanges, leading to a high degree of variability in surface energy terms during melt. The heterogeneity and related differences when certain parts of the landscape become snow free also affects the length of the growing season and the carbon cycle. Small‐scale variability in arctic snowmelt is addressed here by combining a spatially distributed end‐of‐winter snow cover with simulations of variable snowmelt energy balance factors for the small arctic catchment of Trail Valley Creek (63 km2). Throughout the winter, snow in arctic tundra basins is redistributed by frequent blowing snow events. Areas of above‐ or below‐average end‐of‐winter snow water equivalents were determined from land‐cover classifications, topography, land‐cover‐based snow surveys, and distributed surface wind‐field simulations. Topographic influences on major snowmelt energy balance factors (solar radiation and turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat) were modelled on a small‐scale (40 m) basis. A spatially variable complete snowmelt energy balance was subsequently computed and applied to the distributed snow cover, allowing the simulation of the progress of melt throughout the basin. The emerging patterns compared very well visually to snow cover observations from satellite images and aerial photographs. Results show the relative importance of variable end‐of‐winter snow cover, spatially distributed melt energy fluxes, and local advection processes for the development of a patchy snow cover. This illustrates that the consideration of these processes is crucial for an accurate determination of snow‐covered areas, as well as the location, timing, and amount of meltwater release from arctic catchments, and should, therefore, be included in hydrological models. Furthermore, the study shows the need for a subgrid parameterization of these factors in the land surface schemes of larger scale climate models. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
This paper presents measurements of the energy balance (radiation, sensible heat flux, evaporation) from a sub‐arctic hillside in northern Finland for a summer season. Comparisons are also made with a nearby wetland site. The hillslope measurements show an equal partition of the radiant energy into sensible and latent heat flux. The evaporative ratio of just over one half was remarkably constant throughout the season, despite very large day‐to‐day and diurnal variations of temperature, humidity deficit and radiation input. This conservative behaviour of the evaporation was caused by a strong rise in effective surface resistance to evaporation with increasing vapour pressure deficit. This suggests a strong physiological control on the evaporation, with stomata closing at times of high evaporative demand. There was no obvious impact of soil‐water stress on the evaporation. However, a comparison with the evaporation measured at a nearby mire site in 1997 suggests that the mire has a significantly lower surface resistance, even when the impact of a significantly lower humidity deficit in the earlier year is taken into account. The measurements are used to test, off‐line, the performance of MOSES (Meteorological Office Surface Exchange Scheme), a simple, but comprehensive, land surface model. The sensitivity of the energy exchanges to the thermal properties of the top soil layer (a surrogate for the upper soil/vegetation layer) is investigated with the use of the model. It is found that the evaporation is insensitive to these properties; they do, however, influence the partition of energy between the sensible heat flux and the ground heat flux (and hence the soil temperatures). It is suggested that the model needs to represent the thermal properties of the canopy more realistically. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
14.
Evaporation rate estimation is important for water resource studies. Previous studies have shown that the radiation‐based models, mass transfer models, temperature‐based models and artificial neural network (ANN) models generally perform well for areas with a temperate climate. This study evaluates the applicability of these models in estimating hourly and daily evaporation rates for an area with an equatorial climate. Unlike in temperate regions, solar radiation was found to correlate best with pan evaporation on both the hourly and daily time‐scales. Relative humidity becomes a significant factor on a daily time‐scale. Among the simplified models, only the radiation‐based models were found to be applicable for modelling the hourly and daily evaporations. ANN models are generally more accurate than the simplified models if an appropriate network architecture is selected and a sufficient number of data points are used for training the network. ANN modelling becomes more relevant when both the energy‐ and aerodynamics‐driven mechanisms dominate, as the radiation and the mass transfer models are incapable of producing reliable evaporation estimates under this circumstance. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
鄱阳湖夏季水面蒸发与蒸发皿蒸发的比较 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
水面蒸发是湖泊水量平衡要素的重要组成部分.基于传统蒸发皿观测蒸发不能代表实际水面蒸发,而实际水面蒸发特征仍不清楚.本研究基于涡度相关系统观测的鄱阳湖水体实际水面蒸发过程,在小时和日尺度分析了水面蒸发的变化规律及其主要影响因子,并与蒸发皿蒸发进行比较.研究表明,实际水面蒸发日变化波动剧烈,变化范围在0~0.4 mm/h之间.水面蒸发的日变化特征主要受风速的影响.鄱阳湖8月份日水面蒸发量与蒸发皿蒸发量在总体趋势上具有很好的一致性.8月份平均日水面蒸发速率(5.90 mm/d)比蒸发皿蒸发速率(5.65 mm/d)高4.6%.水面日蒸发量与蒸发皿蒸发量的比值在8月上、中、下旬平均值分别为1.24、1.00、0.92,呈现下降的趋势.鄱阳湖夏季水面日蒸发量与风速和相对湿度相关性显著,而蒸发皿蒸发与净辐射、气温、饱和水汽压差和相对湿度均呈显著相关.这是由于蒸发皿水体容积小,与湖泊相比其水体热存储能力小,因此更容易受到环境因子的影响. 相似文献
16.
River water temperature is a very important variable in ecological studies, especially for the management of fisheries and aquatic resources. Temperature can impact on fish distribution, growth, mortality and community dynamics. River evaporation has been identified as an important heat loss and a key process in the thermal regime of rivers. However, its quantification remains a challenge, mainly because of the difficulty of making direct measurements. The objectives of this study were to characterize the evaporative heat flux at different scales (brook vs river) and to improve the estimation of the evaporative heat flux in a stream temperature model at the hourly timescale. Using a mass balance approach with floating minipans, we measured river evaporation at an hourly timescale in a medium‐sized river (Little Southwest Miramichi) and a small brook (Catamaran Brook) in New Brunswick, Canada. With these direct measurements of evaporation, we developed mass transfer equations to estimate hourly evaporation rates from microclimate conditions measured 2 m above the stream. During the summer 2012, river evaporation was more important for the medium‐sized river with a mean daily evaporation rate of 3.0 mm day?1 in the Little Southwest Miramichi River compared with that of 1.0 mm day?1 in Catamaran Brook. Evaporation was the main heat loss mechanism in the two studied streams and was responsible for 42% of heat losses in the Little Southwest Miramichi River and 34% of heat losses in Catamaran Brook during the summer. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
水面蒸发在季节变化上相比净辐射等气象要素的相位延迟反映了水体储热对水面蒸发的影响,量化这一对气象要素波动的滞后响应对理解和估算深水水库(湖泊)蒸发非常重要。三峡水库等河道型深水水库的水位和面积具有显著周期性变动,使得其水面蒸发的响应模式更为复杂,而目前对其认识非常薄弱。本文利用2013年8月-2020年7月三峡水库巴东站水面蒸发场和陆面蒸发场的蒸发和气象观测数据,分析了水面蒸发的季节变化及其年内滞后效应。结果表明:水面蒸发场蒸发量在年内的8和12月呈现双峰变化,与只有8月单峰值的陆面蒸发场蒸发量显著不同。水面蒸发场蒸发量相对净辐射、平均气温和水面温度分别存在4、3和2个月的滞后,而陆面蒸发场蒸发量相对滞后时间均在1个月以内;水面与陆面蒸发场相比,水温、蒸发量和水面与大气饱和差之间的滞后时间分别为1、3和4个月,而平均气温和净辐射之间不存在滞后。本文揭示出三峡水库巴东段水面蒸发年内滞后效应主要受到水库水温引起的水面与大气饱和差在季节上滞后的影响,需通过深入分析水温的时空变化来明确整个三峡水库的水面蒸发特征。 相似文献
18.
A. Hassani 《Water Resources》2013,40(6):621-630
Knowing the rate of evaporation from surface water resources such as channels and reservoirs is essential for precise management of the water balance. Few detailed evaporation studies exist for small lakes or reservoirs in arid regions of the world. In this study, monthly evaporation was determined by Bowen Ratio Energy Budget technique (BREB) for Alghadir reservoir (Saveh, Iran) from 1995–2007 and compared with class-A pan. Daily data were obtained from IMO (Iran Meteorological Organization) weather station, located near the reservoir, for all of these years. Some variations have been observed on the estimated evaporation of the energy budget at different years, ranging from 151 cm for 1997 to 174 cm for 2006. There is no specific evaporation pattern for all the years, but evaporation rates were low in winter (January and February) and highest during the summer (July and August). However, the times and month of highest evaporation rates varied during the study period. Surveying of reservoir thermal structure showed that, inflow and outflow energy fluxes to this water volume have large variations. In addition, incoming solar shortwave radiation, incoming atmospheric longwave radiation, and longwave atmospheric radiation emitted from the water surface are largest energy fluxes for this small and deep reservoir. Results of this study could explain the importance and sensible contribution of the evaporation rates as a fundamental parameter in the hydrological cycle of reservoirs ecosystem in the arid regions of Iran. 相似文献
19.
Two long term microclimate measurement stations with Bowen ratio capability have been used to study water cycling in a closed desert basin. Microclimate variables including the temperature and vapor pressure gradients were monitored continuously and were used to estimate the Bowen ratio, sensible and latent heat fluxes during 1986 and 1987. Despite having a water table that varied between the surface and 30 cm below the surface, the playa had little evaporation except after rainfall events. The very high osmotic pressure of the soil and salt crust caused most of the absorbed radiation to be partitioned to sensible heat. In contrast, along the margin the thin grass and brush cover transpired water freely, with the latent heat flux exceeding 60% of available energy for much of the season. The higher air temperatures above the playa raised potential evapotranspiration (ET) significantly higher than along the margin throughout the summer. The annual average actual ET of the playa was only 36% of the margin. During the drier summer period (May–October), this ratio decreased to < 28%. Immediately after a rainfall event, evaporation rates of the two sites were similar, but the playa rate was quickly reduced as the osmotic potential increased. During this study, the playa lost < 229 mm of subsurface water to evaporation annually, while > 638 mm were lost from the margin groundwater supply.
The 24-h solar and net radiation correlations were 0.80 and 0.94 for the playa and margin, respectively. The lower correlation for the playa resulted from the wide variation of albedo with surface moisture changes. The annual average albedo values for the playa and margin were 0.64 and 0.46, respectively. 相似文献
20.
The level of Lake Tana, Ethiopia, fluctuates annually and seasonally following the patterns of changes in precipitation. In this study, a mass balance approach is used to estimate the hydrological balance of the lake. Water influx from four major rivers, subsurface inflow from the floodplains, precipitation, outflow from the lake constituting river discharge and evapotranspiration from the lake are analysed on monthly and annual bases. Spatial interpolation of precipitation using rain gauge data was conducted using kriging. Outflow from the lake was identified as the evaporation from the lake's surface as well as discharge at the outlet where the Blue Nile commences. Groundwater inflow is estimated using MODular three‐dimensional finite‐difference ground‐water FLOW model software that showed an aligned flow pattern to the river channels. The groundwater outflow is considered negligible based on the secondary sources that confirmed the absence of lake water geochemical mixing outside of the basin. Evaporation is estimated using Penman's, Meyer's and Thornwaite's methods to compare the mass balance and energy balance approaches. Meteorological data, satellite images and temperature perturbation simulations from Global Historical Climate Network of National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration are employed for estimation of evaporation input parameters. The difference of the inflow and outflow was taken as storage in depth and compared with the measured water level fluctuations. The study has shown that the monthly and annually calculated lake level replicates the observed values with root mean square error value of 0·17 and 0·15 m, respectively. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献