共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 343 毫秒
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本文利用GPS观测的1999-2007年汶川震前3期地表变形数据和2008年汶川同震地表变形数据，结合地震位错理论，通过高斯变换和坐标旋转建立断层模型，运用遗传算法，反演了龙门山断裂带断层震前3期和同震滑动参数。结果表明龙门山断层震前3期平均走滑位移为-5.39mm，倾向位移为2.66mm，与同震断层滑移相比较，发现震前断层的滑移趋势与同震断层滑移一致，均为逆冲兼右旋的挤压运动。比较震前3期逆冲方向的滑移量，发现逆冲滑移有加速的现象。并根据震前和同震的断层滑动量估算了汶川地震复发周期。 相似文献
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本文以震例、实验成果及粘滑理论,证实跨断层测量已经成为目前中短期预报地震的手段之一,不跨断层测量则效果较差。宁河水准点观测到的唐山地震前“临界破裂前兆蠕滑”,不同于圣安德烈斯蠕动断层震前的加速蠕滑,它是板内首次测到的大震前兆蠕滑,并更强有力地证实国内外各种岩石破裂实验中普遍观测到的前兆蠕动在震前存在。“临界破裂前兆蠕滑”可能是一种必然出现的前兆现象,因此具有一定的理论意义和实用价值。根据跨断层位移测量点预报地震的经验,可将前兆异常分为三级,列出各种干扰,建立构造、前兆二判式。这套判别系统经过验证不仅实用,且为地震预报提出了一条新的思路。 相似文献
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叙述南黄海北部地区具备发生中强地震的地质构造条件，分析2014年4月1日南黄海北部ML 5.2地震前历史地震活动。利用地震分析预报软件MapSIS计算震前地震活动性参数。结果表明，部分参数时间扫描和空间扫描结果显示出一定异常。 相似文献
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国家地震局兰州地震研究所 《地震工程学报》1979,1(1):90-92
1964年文献曾对地下水预报地震的问题进行了讨论,指出由于震前地下的变动及岩层物质溶于水中可引起地下水物理化学性质的变化。1968年中国科学院地球化学研究所派出了一个地震队,在邢台地区开展了氡气及水化学因子预报地震的工作,首先观察到震前氡气突跳的现象。随后,辽宁省地震局在预报1975年海城地震、四川省地震局在预报1976年松潘、盐源等地震的实践中,都充分注意并应用了氡气突跳现象。1977年 相似文献
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2011年3月11日, 日本海沟发生的9级地震造成重大人员伤亡, 受到社会普遍关注, 本文基于此次日本9级地震相关研究结果, 尝试从不同侧面分析此次地震的观测、 现象和认识, 主要包括如下几点: ① 此次地震发生在太平洋板块西北边界上日本海沟俯冲带上, 同震破裂可能存在深浅两个位错集中区, 较深的位错集中区位错量相对较小, 但历史上7级地震多发; 而较浅的位错集中区位错较大, 但历史上强震活动相对较弱; ② 基于GPS观测资料为约束的相关断层运动研究结果表明, 日本海沟断层运动背景以大范围稳定闭锁为主(闭锁区空间尺度与同震破裂尺度相当), 自2003年日本北海道8级地震后日本海沟地区断层运动开始出现扰动, 2008年以后有几次7级左右地震震后余滑分布明显比主震位错量要大, 之后分别于2008年和2011年观测到显著慢滑移事件, 最后分别于2011年3月9日和3月11日发生7级前震和9级主震, 震前日本海沟俯冲带断层运动变化过程比较清楚; ③ 可能是由于监测的原因, 传统上的前兆观测并未出现显著异常, 其震前异常主要为: 部分地震活动参数表明强震震源区震前应力状态相对较高、 区域地表运动速率的短期异常等; ④ 对于震源区物理性质的分析引起了更多的科学问题, 例如, 震源区介质物性是否与周边存在显著差异、 断层摩擦性质是否决定了发震能力和破裂过程、 震前断层运动是否存在预滑、 震前深部流体是否影响到震源区断层运动等。 他山之石可以攻玉, 希望本文对地震预测预报基础研究工作能起到抛砖引玉的作用。 相似文献
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Mechanisms of seismic quiescences 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
Christopher H. Scholz 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,126(2-4):701-718
In the past decade there have been major advances in understanding the seismic cycle in terms of the recognition of characteristic patterns of seismicity over the entire tectonic loading cycle. The most distinctive types of patterns are seismic quiescences, of which three types can be recognized:post-seismic quiescence, which occurs in the region of the rupture zone of an earthquake and persists for a substantial fraction of the recurrence time following the earthquake,intermediate-term quiescences, which appear over a similar region and persist for several years prior to large plate-rupturing earthquakes, andshort-term quiescences, which are pronounced lulls in premonitory swarms that occur in the hypocentral region hours or days before an earthquake. Although the frequency with which intermediate-term and short-term quiescences precede earthquakes is not known, and the statistical significance of some of the former has been challenged, there is a need, if this phenomena is to be considered a possibly real precursor, to consider physical mechanisms that may be responsible for them.The characteristic features of these quiescences are reviewed, and possible mechanisms for their cause are discussed. Post-seismic quiescence can be readily explained by any simple model of the tectonic loading cycle as due to the regional effect of the stress-drop of the previous principal earthquake. The other types of quiescence require significant modification to any such simple model. Of the possibilities considered, only two seem viable in predicting the observed phenomena, dilatancy hardening and slip weakening. Intermediate-term quiescences typically occur over a region equal to or several times the size of the rupture zone of the later earthquake and exhibit a relationship between the quiescence duration and size of the earthquake: they thus involve regional hardening or stress relaxation and agree with the predictions of the dilatancy-diffusion theory. Short-term quiescences, on the other hand, are more likely explained by fault zone dilatancy hardening and/or slip weakening within a small nucleation zone. Because seismicity is a locally relaxing process, seismicity should follow a behaviour known in rock mechanics as the Kaiser effect, in which only a very slight increase in strength, due to dilatancy hardening or decrease in stress due to slip weakening, is required to cause quiescence. This is in contrast to other precursory phenomena predicted by dilatancy, which require large dilatant strains and complete dilatancy hardening.Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory 相似文献
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《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1979,18(4):309-318
On November 7, 1976, an earthquake of the strike-slip fault type, and of magnitude 6.7, occurred at two mountainous localities, Yanyuan and Ninglang, in the border region of the Szechuan and Yunnan Provinces, China. One year before the earthquake, a prediction was made as to the magnitude and location of the impending earthquake by the present authors, on the basis of the results of a general survey of an area of about 20,000 km2 for Vp/Vs ratio variations. The prediction of time of occurrence was made afterwards by the combined analysis of results of observations of some other precursory phenomena. The actual occurrence of the event was generally considered as being in agreement with the prediction.The present study may be taken as a new example for the detection of Vp/Vs ratio variations prior to an earthquake of the strike-slip fault type. By considering the difference between the shear rupture and stick-slip motion and the anisotropy induced by dilatancy, a preliminary discussion is made concerning the related results. 相似文献
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用归一化月速率方法处理了６次强震前近震中区11个台的地电阻率数据，得到在孕震中短期至短临阶段，与主压应力方向正交（或近于正交）测向的地电阻率下降变化的速率大于平行（或近于平行）主应力方向的变化速率．产生变化速率各向异性的原因可能是:在孕震后期的扩容阶段，裂隙走向沿主压应力方向优势排列，导电流体活动产生真电阻率变化速率的各向异性，表现为地表视电阻率变化速率的各向异性．本文为视电阻率各向异性的实验结果提供了震例支持，物理解释比较清晰，可能成为研究某些强震孕育晚期震源区及其附近地壳应力状态的参考依据． 相似文献
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B. Rowshandel 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》1987,6(4):203-219
An elasto-plasticity theory is used to model the deformation of geological materials under various confining pressures and moderate temperatures. The effects of material hardening (or softening due to volumetric strains) are included, and the corresponding elasto-plastic rate constitutive relations are developed. To study the influence of pressure and temperature on the constitutive parameters, we use some published data of laboratory experiments on certain rocks. It is shown that over a wide range of pressures and low to moderate temperatures, when the rate effect can be ignored, the model can be used to describe the behaviour of geological materials. Based on this theory, dilatancy (i.e., inelastic volumetric expansion) of an intact granite is studied under conventional triaxial stress states. The effect of pressure and temperature on the magnitude of dilation and on the stress (measured relative to the peak stress) at the onset of dilatancy is investigated. It is found that, consistent with experimental data, the theory predicts this stress to be about 50% of the peak stress, but its specific value depends on pressure and temperature. As an illustration, stress-strain curves for intact granite at relatively shallow crustal depths are then predicted for possible application to the study of crustal deformation and for the prediction of fault behaviour. 相似文献
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通过对1982年7月3日云南剑川Ms5．4级地震的余震震群近场记录的研究，为该地区存在横波分裂现象及上部地壳存在裂隙各向异性提供了直接的证据．剑川地区地震记录波形复杂，纵、横波视周期差异较大．横波快波偏振主要集中在NE45°和NW55°两个方向．7月20日ML4．8级强余震前后横波快波偏振取向变化显著，各台横波偏振方向震前彼此相对独立；震后整体上趋于有序．前者反映了地震发生前由于震源区应力集中在附近空间形成的应力分布的差异；后者显示出地震发生后由于震源区集中应力的释放带来的上述应力差异在一定空间范围的解除．该结果表明震源附近地区地震横波分裂特征不仅携带着地震处于相对平静期应力场的静态信息，而且也携带着地震发生前后应力场时、空动态变化的重要信息．文中还讨论了剑川地区构造对S波分裂的影响． 相似文献
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加卸载响应比理论已在地震预测中得到广泛应用，但也面临挑战。本对加卸载响应比理论及方法进行了分析，并提出该理论几个可能的研究方面：(1)根据固体潮应力变化值给定每个小地震Benio盯应变在加卸载响应比计算中的权重；(2)考虑地震之前应力空间分布，确定加卸载响应比可能升高的区域形状，进而确定加卸载响应比计算中小震资料的选取范围；(3)将实测的小震震源机制与假定小震震源机制都相同时的加卸载响应比计算结果进行比较，研究测定的小震震源机制对加卸载响应比方法的改善情况；(4)研究加卸载响应比方法对不同震源机制类型地震的适用情况。 相似文献