Predictions in ungauged basins: an approach for regionalization of hydrological models considering the probability distribution of model parameters   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

P. Athira  K. P. Sudheer  R. Cibin  I. Chaubey 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(4):1131-1149

Regionalization of model parameters by developing appropriate functional relationship between the parameters and basin characteristics is one of the potential approaches to employ hydrological models in ungauged basins. While this is a widely accepted procedure, the uniqueness of the watersheds and the equifinality of parameters bring lot of uncertainty in the simulations in ungauged basins. This study proposes a method of regionalization based on the probability distribution function of model parameters, which accounts the variability in the catchment characteristics. It is envisaged that the probability distribution function represents the characteristics of the model parameter, and when regionalized the earlier concerns can be addressed appropriately. The method employs probability distribution of parameters, derived from gauged basins, to regionalize by regressing them against the catchment attributes. These regional functions are used to develop the parameter characteristics in ungauged basins based on the catchment attributes. The proposed method is illustrated using soil water assessment tool model for an ungauged basin prediction. For this numerical exercise, eight different watersheds spanning across different climatic settings in the USA are considered. While all the basins considered in this study were gauged, one of them was assumed to be ungauged (pseudo-ungauged) in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in ungauged basin simulation. The process was repeated by considering representative basins from different climatic and landuse scenarios as pseudo-ungauged. The results of the study indicated that the ensemble simulations in the ungauged basins were closely matching with the observed streamflow. The simulation efficiency varied between 57 and 61 % in ungauged basins. The regional function was able to generate the parameter characteristics that were closely matching with the original probability distribution derived from observed streamflow data.  相似文献   

Integrated surface water–groundwater modelling in the context of increasing water reserves of a regional Sahelian aquifer     

S. Massuel  B. Cappelaere  G. Favreau  C. Leduc  T. Lebel  T. Vischel 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1242-1264

Abstract

Despite the Sahelian drought of the 1970s–1990s, the unconfined aquifer in southwest Niger exhibits a multidecadal increase in groundwater reserves. Recent changes in land surface conditions have enhanced runoff and thus indirect groundwater recharge below endorheic ponds. This paper presents a model-based investigation of surface runoff and groundwater recharge at mesoscale (～5000 km²). A new lumped-conceptual runoff model applicable to the large number of ungauged endorheic catchments is specially developed, derived from an existing fine-scale, physically-based hydrologic model. Runoff simulated for sites identified as groundwater recharge sources are used to derive recharge forcing for a Modflow-based model of the aquifer. The rising water table trend and its spatial distribution over the period 1992–2003 are generally well simulated, albeit smoothed year-to-year dynamics. Comparison with alternative methods of recharge estimation suggests, however, that there may presently exist more recharging sites and/or contributing surfaces than those considered so far.

Citation Massuel, S., Cappelaere, B., Favreau, G., Leduc, C., Lebel, T. & Vischel, T. (2011) Integrated surface water–groundwater modelling in the context of increasing water reserves of a regional Sahelian aquifer. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1242–1264.  相似文献   

IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB), 2003–2012: Shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):857-880

Abstract

Drainage basins in many parts of the world are ungauged or poorly gauged, and in some cases existing measurement networks are declining. The problem is compounded by the impacts of human-induced changes to the land surface and climate, occurring at the local, regional and global scales. Predictions of ungauged or poorly gauged basins under these conditions are highly uncertain. The IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins, or PUB, is a new initiative launched by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), aimed at formulating and implementing appropriate science programmes to engage and energize the scientific community, in a coordinated manner, towards achieving major advances in the capacity to make predictions in ungauged basins. The PUB scientific programme focuses on the estimation of predictive uncertainty, and its subsequent reduction, as its central theme. A general hydrological prediction system contains three components: (a) a model that describes the key processes of interest, (b) a set of parameters that represent those landscape properties that govern critical processes, and (c) appropriate meteorological inputs (where needed) that drive the basin response. Each of these three components of the prediction system, is either not known at all, or at best known imperfectly, due to the inherent multi-scale space—time heterogeneity of the hydrological system, especially in ungauged basins. PUB will therefore include a set of targeted scientific programmes that attempt to make inferences about climatic inputs, parameters and model structures from available but inadequate data and process knowledge, at the basin of interest and/or from other similar basins, with robust measures of the uncertainties involved, and their impacts on predictive uncertainty. Through generation of improved understanding, and methods for the efficient quantification of the underlying multi-scale heterogeneity of the basin and its response, PUB will inexorably lead to new, innovative methods for hydrological predictions in ungauged basins in different parts of the world, combined with significant reductions of predictive uncertainty. In this way, PUB will demonstrate the value of data, as well as provide the information needed to make predictions in ungauged basins, and assist in capacity building in the use of new technologies. This paper presents a summary of the science and implementation plan of PUB, with a call to the hydrological community to participate actively in the realization of these goals.  相似文献   

Simulating the daily discharge of the Mandovi River,west coast of India     

K. Suprit  D. Shankar  V. Venugopal  N.V. Bhatkar 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):686-704

Abstract

A hydrological modelling framework was assembled to simulate the daily discharge of the Mandovi River on the Indian west coast. Approximately 90% of the west-coast rainfall, and therefore discharge, occurs during the summer monsoon (June–September), with a peak during July–August. The modelling framework consisted of a digital elevation model (DEM) called GLOBE, a hydrological routing algorithm, the Terrestrial Hydrological Model with Biogeochemistry (THMB), an algorithm to map the rainfall recorded by sparse raingauges to the model grid, and a modified Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. A series of discharge simulations (with and without the SCS method) was carried out. The best simulation was obtained after incorporating spatio-temporal variability in the SCS parameters, which was achieved by an objective division of the season into five regimes: the lean season, monsoon onset, peak monsoon, end-monsoon, and post-monsoon. A novel attempt was made to incorporate objectively the different regimes encountered before, during and after the Indian monsoon, into a hydrological modelling framework. The strength of our method lies in the low demand it makes on hydrological data. Apart from information on the average soil type in a region, the entire parameterization is built on the basis of the rainfall that is used to force the model. That the model does not need to be calibrated separately for each river is important, because most of the Indian west-coast basins are ungauged. Hence, even though the model has been validated only for the Mandovi basin, its potential region of application is considerable. In the context of the Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) framework, the potential of the proposed approach is significant, because the discharge of these (ungauged) rivers into the eastern Arabian Sea is not small, making them an important element of the local climate system.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Suprit, K., Shankar, D., Venugopal, V. and Bhatkar, N.V., 2012. Simulating the daily discharge of the Mandovi River, west coast of India. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 686–704.  相似文献   

Modeling Monthly Mean Flow in a Poorly Gauged Basin by Fuzzy Logic     

Zeynel Fuat Toprak  Ebru Eris  Necati Agiralioglu  Hikmet Kerem Cigizoglu  Levent Yilmaz  Hafzullah Aksoy  Hilal Gonca Coskun  Gokhan Andic  Ugur Alganci 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2009,37(7):555-564

The estimation of the monthly mean flow is a critical issue in many water resource development projects. However, in practice the mean flow is not easily determined in ungauged and poorly gauged basins. Therefore, in the literature, various flow estimation methods have been developed recently for mountainous regions which are generally ungauged or poorly gauged basins. In this study a fuzzy logic model based on the Mamdani approach was developed to estimate the flow for poorly gauged mountainous basins. This model was applied to the Solakli Basin which is located in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. Limited rainfall and flow data are available for this basin. In addition to these variables, the stream and time coefficients were introduced and used as variables for modeling. The data was divided into training and testing phases. The model results were compared with the measured data. The comparison depends on seven statistical characteristics, four different error modes and the contour map method. It was observed that the fuzzy model developed in this study yielded reliable results.  相似文献   

Robustness of flood-model calibration using single and multiple events     

J. E. Reynolds  S. Halldin  J. Seibert  C. Y. Xu  T. Grabs 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(5):842-853

ABSTRACT

Lack of discharge data for model calibration is challenging for flood prediction in ungauged basins. Since establishment and maintenance of a permanent discharge station is resource demanding, a possible remedy could be to measure discharge only for a few events. We tested the hypothesis that a few flood-event hydrographs in a tropical basin would be sufficient to calibrate a bucket-type rainfall–runoff model, namely the HBV model, and proposed a new event-based calibration method to adequately predict floods. Parameter sets were chosen based on calibration of different scenarios of data availability, and their ability to predict floods was assessed. Compared to not having any discharge data, flood predictions improved already when one event was used for calibration. The results further suggest that two to four events for calibration may considerably improve flood predictions with regard to accuracy and uncertainty reduction, whereas adding more events beyond this resulted in small performance gains.  相似文献   

Geologic influences on fluvial hydrology and bedload transport in small mountainous watersheds,Northern New Mexico,U.S.A.     

Keith I. Kelson  Stephen G. Wells 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1989,14(8):671-690

Discharge characteristics in six adjacent mountainous watersheds in northern New Mexico, U.S.A., vary substantially between basins underlain by different lithologies. Relatively resistant gneisses and granites underlie two basins (drainage areas: 43 and 94 km²) that have high unit discharge (0·010 to 0·14 m³s^?1 km^?2), high bankfull discharge, and sustained high discharge. Less resistant sandstones and shales underlie four basins (drainage areas: 96 to 215 km²) that have relatively low unit discharge (0·001 to 0·005 m³s^?1 km^?2), relatively low bankfull discharge, and peak discharges that are not sustained as long as those in the crystalline terrane. Analysis of snowmelt-runoff water budgets suggests that three factors control hydrologic conditions in the basins. First, area-elevation distributions appear to control the timing and amounts of water input. These distributions probably reflect the erosional resistance of the different lithologies. Second, lithology appears to control runoff production in areas having minor amounts of storage. Third, glacial deposits in headwater regions control discharge duration and timing via storage and return flow releases. The amount of return flow released by glacial deposits, however, is probably controlled by the permeability of underlying bedrock. Therefore it appears that the duration, timing, and magnitude of discharge events in the study area are controlled both directly and indirectly by lithology. Stream power and shear stress estimates derived from bankfull discharge and bed-material size data suggest that higher bedload transport rates and larger bedload particle sizes exist in streams draining crystalline rocks than in streams draining sedimentary terrane. It appears that source-area lithology, by controlling discharge production, also influences stream power, bedload transport capabilities, and therefore total amounts of bedload transport.  相似文献