共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 32 毫秒
1.
Hydrological model comparison and assessment: criteria from catchment scales and temporal resolution
ABSTRACTThis study examines the performance of three hydrological models, namely the artificial neural network (ANN) model, the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning-D (HBV-D) model, and the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) over the upper reaches of the Huai River basin. The assessment is done by using databases of different temporal resolution and by further examining the applicability of SWIM for different catchment sizes. The results show that at monthly scale the performance of the ANN model is better than that of HBV-D and SWIM. The ANN model can be applied at any temporal scale as it establishes an artificial precipitation–runoff relationship for various time scales by only using monthly precipitation, temperature and runoff data. However, at daily scale the performance of both HBV-D and SWIM are similar or even better than the ANN model. In addition, the performance of SWIM at a small catchment size (less than 10 000 km2) is much better than at a larger catchment size. In view of climate change modelling, HBV-D and SWIM might be integrated in a dynamical atmosphere-water-cycle modelling rather than the ANN model due to their use of observed physical links instead of artificial relations within a black box.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Hughes 相似文献
2.
AbstractWe conducted a PUB (predictions in ungauged basins) experiment looking at hydrology and crop dynamics in the semi-arid rural Mod catchment in India. The experiment was motivated by the aims (a) to develop a coupled eco-hydrological model capable of analysing land-use strategies concerning crop water need, erosion protection, crop yield and resistivity against droughts and floods, and (b) to assess the feasibility of a strategy for collecting the necessary data in a data-scarce region. Our experiment combines parsimonious data assessment and eco-hydrological model coupling at the lower mesoscale. Linking bottom-up sampling of functionally representative soil classes and top-down regionalization based on spectral properties of the same resulted in a comprehensive distributed data basis for the model. A clear focus on the dominating processes and the catena as the organizing landscape element in the given environmental setting enabled this. We employed the WASA (Water Availability in Semi-Arid environments) model for uncalibrated process-based water balance modelling and integrated a crop simulation subroutine based on the SWAP (Soil Water Atmosphere Plant) model to account for crop dynamics, feedbacks and yield estimation. While we found the data assessment strategy and the hydrological model application largely feasible, in terms of its accounting for scale, processes and model concepts, the simulation of feedbacks with crops was problematic. Contributing to the PUB issue, more general conclusions are drawn concerning spatially-distributed structural information and uncalibrated modelling.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor F. Hattermann 相似文献
3.
J.C. Refsgaard T.O. Sonnenborg M.B. Butts J.H. Christensen S. Christensen M. Drews 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(13):2312-2324
ABSTRACTThis paper assesses how various sources of uncertainty propagate through the uncertainty cascade from emission scenarios through climate models and hydrological models to impacts, with a particular focus on groundwater aspects from a number of coordinated studies in Denmark. Our results are similar to those from surface water studies showing that climate model uncertainty dominates the results for projections of climate change impacts on streamflow and groundwater heads. However, we found uncertainties related to geological conceptualization and hydrological model discretization to be dominant for projections of well field capture zones, while the climate model uncertainty here is of minor importance. How to reduce the uncertainties on climate change impact projections related to groundwater is discussed, with an emphasis on the potential for reducing climate model biases through the use of fully coupled climate–hydrology models.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor not assigned 相似文献
4.
Testing the robustness of the physically-based ECOMAG model with respect to changing conditions 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
AbstractThe robustness of the physically-based, semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG with respect to changing (climatic or land-use) conditions was evaluated for two basins, considered within the modelling workshop held in the frame of the 2013 IAHS conference in Göteborg, Sweden. The first basin, the Garonne River basin, France, is characterized mostly by changes in climatic conditions, while the second, Obyån Creek, Sweden, was exposed to drastic land cover change due to deforestation. Tests were conducted to evaluate the model’s ability to simulate with acceptable accuracy the changing hydrological regime of each basin and to retain, in the process, relatively stable values of the parameters. Acceptable performance of the ECOMAG model was obtained under the different combinations of the calibration/evaluation periods, including, importantly, the periods of hydrological regime changes in both basins. 相似文献
5.
AbstractThe robustness of the physically-based, semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG with respect to changing (climatic or land-use) conditions was evaluated for two basins, considered within the modelling workshop held in the frame of the 2013 IAHS conference in Göteborg, Sweden. The first basin, the Garonne River basin, France, is characterized mostly by changes in climatic conditions, while the second, Obyån Creek, Sweden, was exposed to drastic land cover change due to deforestation. Tests were conducted to evaluate the model’s ability to simulate with acceptable accuracy the changing hydrological regime of each basin and to retain, in the process, relatively stable values of the parameters. Acceptable performance of the ECOMAG model was obtained under the different combinations of the calibration/evaluation periods, including, importantly, the periods of hydrological regime changes in both basins. 相似文献
6.
AbstractThe impact of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield is investigated in the Be River catchment, Vietnam, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The sensitivity analysis, model calibration and validation indicated that the SWAT model could reasonably simulate the hydrology and sediment yield in the catchment. From this, the responses of the hydrology and sediment to climate change and land-use changes were considered. The results indicate that deforestation had increased the annual flow (by 1.2%) and sediment load (by 11.3%), and that climate change had also significantly increased the annual streamflow (by 26.3%) and sediment load (by 31.7%). Under the impact of coupled climate and land-use changes, the annual streamflow and sediment load increased by 28.0% and 46.4%, respectively. In general, during the 1978–2000 period, climate change influenced the hydrological processes in the Be River catchment more strongly than the land-use change.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Q. ZhangCitation Khoi, D.N. and Suetsugi, T., 2014. Impact of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield—a case study of the Be River catchment, Vietnam. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (5), 1095–1108. 相似文献
7.
T. Estrela 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1154-1167
Abstract Impacts on water resources produced by climate change can be exacerbated when occurring in regions already presenting low water resources levels and frequent droughts, and subject to imbalances between water demands and available resources. Within Europe, according to existing climate change scenarios, water resources will be severely affected in Spain. However, the detection of those effects is not simple, because the natural variability of the water cycle and the effects of water abstractions on flow discharges complicate the establishment of clear trends. Therefore, there is a need to improve the assessment of climate change impacts by using hydrological simulation models. This paper reviews water resources and their variability in Spain, the recent modelling studies on hydrological effects of climate change, expected impacts on water resources, the implications in river basins and the current policy actions. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Estrela, T., Pérez-Martin, M.A., and Vargas, E., 2012. Impacts of climate change on water resources in Spain. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1154–1167. 相似文献
8.
Abstract A major goal in hydrological modelling is to identify and quantify different sources of uncertainty in the modelling process. This paper analyses the structural uncertainty in a streamflow modelling system by investigating a set of models with increasing model structure complexity. The models are applied to two basins: Kielstau in Germany and XitaoXi in China. The results show that the model structure is an important factor affecting model performance. For the Kielstau basin, influences from drainage and wetland are critical for the local runoff generation, while for the XitaoXi basin accurate distributions of precipitation and evapotranspiration are two of the determining factors for the success of the river flow simulations. The derived model uncertainty bounds exhibit appropriate coverage of observations. Both case studies indicate that simulation uncertainty for the low-flow period contributes more to the overall uncertainty than that for the peak-flow period, although the main hydrological features in these two basins differ greatly. Citation Zhang, X. Y., Hörmann, G., Gao, J. F. & Fohrer, N. (2011) Structural uncertainty assessment in a discharge simulation model. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 854–869. 相似文献
9.
Mikołaj Piniewski Frank Voss Ilona Bärlund Tomasz Okruszko Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):737-754
Abstract The effect of using two distributed hydrological models with different degrees of spatial aggregation on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff was investigated. Analyses were conducted in the Narew River basin situated in northeast Poland using a global hydrological model (WaterGAP) and a catchment-scale hydrological model (SWAT). Climate change was represented in both models by projected changes in monthly temperature and precipitation between the period 2040–2069 and the baseline period, resulting from two general circulation models: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2, both coupled with the SRES A2 emissions scenario. The degree of consistency between the global and the catchment model was very high for mean annual runoff, and medium for indicators of high and low runoff. It was observed that SWAT generally suggests changes of larger magnitude than WaterGAP for both climate models, but SWAT and WaterGAP were consistent as regards the direction of change in monthly runoff. The results indicate that a global model can be used in Central and Eastern European lowlands to identify hot-spots where a catchment-scale model should be applied to evaluate, e.g. the effectiveness of management options. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor F.F. Hattermann Citation Piniewski, M., Voss, F., Bärlund, I., Okruszko, T., and Kundzewicz. Z.W., 2013. Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 737–754. 相似文献
10.
ABSTRACTHydrological processes in hilly watersheds are significantly affected by variations in elevation; however, the hydrological functions of different vertical vegetation belts, have rarely been reported. The distributed hydrological model WEP-L (Water and Energy transfer Process in Large river basins) was applied to analyse vertical variations in the hydrological processes of Qingshui River basin (QRB), Wutai Mountain (altitude: 3058 m a.s.l.), China. The results show that the highest ratio of evapotranspiration to precipitation occurs at 1800 m a.s.l. Below 1800 m, evapotranspiration is mainly controlled by precipitation, and in regions above1800 m it is controlled by energy. The runoff coefficients for different vertical vegetation belts may be ranked as follows: farmland > grassland > subalpine meadow > evergreen coniferous shrub forest > deciduous broad-leaved forest. Grassland is the largest runoff production area, contributing approximately 39.10% to the annual water yield of the QRB. The runoff from forested land decreased to a greater extent than the grassland runoff. Increasing forest cover may increase evapotranspiration and reduce runoff. These results are important, not only for further understanding of the hydrological mechanisms in this basin, but also for implementing the sustainable management of water resources and ecosystems in other mountainous regions. 相似文献
11.
Abstract Quantifying the impacts of climate change on the hydrology and ecosystem is important in the study of the Loess Plateau, China, which is well known for its high erosion rates and ecosystem sensitivity to global change. A distributed ecohydrological model was developed and applied in the Jinghe River basin of the Loess Plateau. This model couples the vegetation model, BIOME BioGeochemicalCycles (BIOME-BGC) and the distributed hydrological model, Water and Energy transfer Process in Large river basins (WEP-L). The WEP-L model provided hydro-meteorological data to BIOME-BGC, and the vegetation parameters of WEP-L were updated at a daily time step by BIOME-BGC. The model validation results show good agreement with field observation data and literature values of leaf area index (LAI), net primary productivity (NPP) and river discharge. Average climate projections of 23 global climate models (GCMs), based on three emissions scenarios, were used in simulations to assess future ecohydrological responses in the Jinghe River basin. The results show that global warming impacts would decrease annual discharge and flood season discharge, increase annual NPP and decrease annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP). Increasing evapotranspiration (ET) due to air temperature increase, as well as increases in precipitation and LAI, are the main reasons for the decreasing discharge. The increase in annual NPP is caused by a greater increase in gross primary productivity (GPP) than in plant respiration, whilst the decrease in NEP is caused by a larger increase in heterotrophic respiration than in NPP. Both the air temperature increase and the precipitation increase may affect the changes in NPP and NEP. These results present a serious challenge for water and land management in the basin, where mitigation/adaption measures for climate change are desired. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Yang Citation Peng, H., Jia, Y.W., Qiu, Y.Q., and Niu, C.W., 2013. Assessing climate change impacts on the ecohydrology of the Jinghe River basin in the Loess Plateau, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 651–670. 相似文献
12.
AbstractThe impact of fire on daily discharges from two mountainous basins located in the permafrost region of Eastern Siberia, the Vitimkan (969 km2) and Vitim (18 200 km2) rivers, affected by fire over 78% and 49% of their areas, respectively, in 2003, was investigated. The results of hydrological and meteorological data analysis suggest that the Vitimkan River basin had a rapid and profound hydrological response to wildfire in 2003 expressed through a 41% (133 mm) increase of summer flow. Conversely, the larger Vitim River basin showed no significant changes in discharge after the fire. The parameters of the process-based hydrological model Hydrograph were estimated for pre-fire conditions. The results of runoff simulations conducted for the continuous pre-fire periods of 1966–2002 and 1970–2002 for the Vitimkan and Vitim river basins, respectively, on a daily time step, showed satisfactory agreement with the observed flow series of both basins. Significant underestimation of precipitation and its poor representativeness for mountainous watersheds was revealed as the main cause of observed and simulated flow discrepancies, especially for high flood events. The set of dynamic parameters was developed based on data analysis and post-fire landscape changes as derived from a literature review. The model was applied to investigate the processes in the soil column and their effect on runoff formation during the post-fire period. The new set of model parameters implied the intensification of soil thaw, reduction of infiltration rate and evapotranspiration, and increase of upper subsurface flow fraction in summer flood events following the fire. According to modelling results, the post-fire thaw depth exceeded the pre-fire thaw depth by 0.4–0.7 m. Total evapotranspiration reduced by 40% in summer months, while surface flow increased almost 2.5 times during maximum flood events. 相似文献
13.
Davi C. D. Melo Jamil A. A. Anache Cristiano das N. Almeida Jaqueline V. Coutinho Geraldo M. Ramos Filho Lívia M. P. Rosalem 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(8):1262-1280
ABSTRACT
In-situ
hydrological monitoring is essential for a proper decision-making process and modelling. Efforts have been made in Brazil to carry out field activities at the basin scale, but how complete and comprehensive are those studies? Where are they located? How long have they been carried out? What are the main findings? To answer these questions, an overview of experimental monitoring basins in Brazil is presented, listing their geographical locations, monitored variables, operational status, monitoring periods and main publications. We identified 60 monitored sites, spread across most Brazilian biomes, with an average monitoring period of 12 years. However, some publications from these monitoring studies are not fully accessible to the international community. Field hydrology activities in Brazil contribute to a better understanding of hydrological processes in humid and semi-arid regions and inform us about the impacts of land-use change on water quality and quantity. 相似文献14.
K. Y. Raneesh 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):946-965
Abstract Climate change is recognized to be one of the most serious challenges facing mankind today. Driven by anthropogenic activities, it is known to be a direct threat to our food and water supplies and an indirect threat to world security. Increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will certainly affect hydrological regimes. The consequent global warming is expected to have major implications on water resources management. The objective of this research is to present a general approach for evaluating the impacts of potential climate change on streamflow in a river basin in the humid tropical zone of India. Large-scale global climate models (GCMs) are the best available tools to provide estimates of the effect of rising greenhouse gases on rainfall and temperature. However the spatial resolution of these models (250 km?×?250 km) is not compatible with that of watershed hydrological models. Hence the outputs from GCMs have to be downscaled using regional climate models (RCMs), so as to project the output of a GCM to a finer resolution (50 km?×?50 km). In the present work, the projections of a GCM for two scenarios, A2 and B2 are downscaled by a RCM to project future climate in a watershed. Projections for two important climate variables, viz. rainfall and temperature are made. These are then used as inputs for a physically-based hydrological model, SWAT, in order to evaluate the effect of climate change on streamflow and vegetative growth in a humid tropical watershed. Citation Raneesh, K. Y. & Santosh, G. T. (2011) A study on the impact of climate change on streamflow at the watershed scale in the humid tropics. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 946–965. 相似文献
15.
Rainfall–runoff models with different conceptual structures for the hydrological processes can be calibrated to effectively reproduce the hydrographs of the total runoff, while resulting in water budget components that are essentially different. This finding poses an open question on the reliability of rainfall–runoff models in reproducing hydrological components other than those used for calibration. In an effort to address this question, we use data from the Glafkos catchment in western Greece to calibrate and compare the ENNS model, a research-oriented lumped model developed for the river Enns in Austria developed for the river Enns in Austria, with the operational MIKE SHE model. Model performance is assessed in the light of the conceptual/structural differences of the modelled hydrological processes, using indices calculated independently for each year, rather than for the whole calibration period, since the former are stricter. We show that even small differences in the representation of hydrological processes may impact considerably on the water budget components that are not measured (i.e. not used for model calibration). From all water budget components, direct runoff exhibits the highest sensitivity to structural differences and related model parameters.
EDITOR M.C. AcremanASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang 相似文献
16.
The assessment of surface water resources (SWRs) in the semi‐arid Yongding River Basin is vital as the basin has been in a continuous state of serious water shortage over the last 20 years. In this study, the first version of the geomorphology‐based hydrological model (GBHM) has been applied to the basin over a long period of time (1956–2000) as part of an SWR assessment. This was done by simulating the natural hydrological processes in the basin. The model was first evaluated at 18 stream gauges during the period from 1990 to 1992 to evaluate both the daily streamflows and the annual SWRs using the land use data for 1990. The model was further validated in 2000 with the annual SWRs at seven major stream gauges. Second, the verified model was used in a 45‐year simulation to estimate the annual SWRs for the basin from 1956 to 2000 using the 1990 land use data. An empirical correlation between the annual precipitation and the annual SWRs was developed for the basin. Spatial distribution of the long‐term mean runoff coefficients for all 177 sub‐basins was also achieved. Third, an additional 10‐year (1991–2000) simulation was performed with the 2000 land use data to investigate the impact of land use changes from 1990 to 2000 on the long‐term annual SWRs. The results suggest that the 10‐year land use changes have led to a decrease of 8·3 × 107 m3 (7·9% of total) for the 10‐year mean annual SWRs in the simulation. To our knowledge, this work is the first attempt to assess the long‐term SWRs and the impact of land use change in the semi‐arid Yongding River Basin using a semi‐distributed hillslope hydrological model. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
AbstractAn integrated model, combining a surface energy balance system, an LAI-based interception model and a distributed monthly water balance model, was developed to predict hydrological impacts of land-use/land-cover change (LUCC) in the East River basin, China, with the aid of GIS/RS. The integrated model is a distributed model that not only accounts for spatial variations in basin terrain, rainfall and soil moisture, but also considers spatial and temporal variation of vegetation cover and evapotranspiration (ET), in particular, thus providing a powerful tool for investigating the hydrological impact of LUCC. The model was constructed using spatial data on topography, soil types and vegetation characteristics together with time series of precipitation from 170 stations in the basin. The model was calibrated and validated based on river discharge data from three stations in the basin for 21 years. The calibration and validation results suggested that the model is suitable for application in the basin. The results show that ET has a positive relationship with LAI (leaf area index), while runoff has a negative relationship with LAI in the same climatic zone that can be described by the surface energy balance and water balance equation. It was found that deforestation would cause an increase in annual runoff and a decrease in annual ET in southern China. Monthly runoff for different land-cover types was found to be inversely related to ET. Also, for most of the scenarios, and particularly for grassland and cropland, the most significant changes occurred in the rainy season, indicating that deforestation would cause a significant increase in monthly runoff in that season in the East River basin. These results are important for water resources management and environmental change monitoring.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz 相似文献
18.
近几年来,国家气候中心己经建立了中国主要四大流域气候对水资源影响评估的模式框架.本文拟进一步证明其中之一的两参数分布式月水量平衡水文模式对长江之上汉江和赣江两子流域径流的模拟能力,结果表明该水文模式对目前气候条件下径流模拟效果较好,运行稳定,可用于实时业务运行.在此基础上,利用ECHAM4和HadCM2两GCM(General Circulation Model)未来气候情景模拟结果及目前实测气候情况,对汉江和赣江两子流域的径流对未来气候变化的敏感性进行评估.经检验,两GCM对未来气候,特别是降水情景模拟存在一定差异,因此,造成径流对气候变化的响应不同,这充分反映了全球模式模拟结果不确定性在气候变化影响研究中的重要性. 相似文献
19.
Abstract The increasing demand for water in southern Africa necessitates adequate quantification of current freshwater resources. Watershed models are the standard tool used to generate continuous estimates of streamflow and other hydrological variables. However, the accuracy of the results is often not quantified, and model assessment is hindered by a scarcity of historical observations. Quantifying the uncertainty in hydrological estimates would increase the value and credibility of predictions. A model-independent framework aimed at achieving consistency in incorporating and analysing uncertainty within water resources estimation tools in gauged and ungauged basins is presented. Uncertainty estimation in ungauged basins is achieved via two strategies: a local approach for a priori model parameter estimation from physical catchment characteristics, and a regional approach to regionalize signatures of catchment behaviour that can be used to constrain model outputs. We compare these two sources of information in the data-scarce region of South Africa. The results show that both approaches are capable of uncertainty reduction, but that their relative values vary. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Citation Kapangaziwiri, E., Hughes, D.A., and Wagener, T., 2012. Incorporating uncertainty in hydrological predictions for gauged and ungauged basins in southern Africa. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (5), 1000–1019. 相似文献
20.
In most of Europe, an increase in average annual surface temperature of 0·8 °C is observed, and a further increase is projected. Precipitation tends to increase in northern Europe and decrease in southern Europe, with variable trends in central Europe. The climate scenarios for Germany suggest an increase in precipitation in western Germany and a decrease in eastern Germany, and a shift of precipitation from summer to winter. When investigating the effects of climate change, impacts on water resources are among the main concerns. In this study, the first German‐wide impact assessment of water fluxes dynamics under climate change is presented in a spatially and temporally distributed manner using the state‐of‐the‐art regional climate model, Statistical Regional (STAR) model and the semi‐distributed process‐based eco‐hydrological model, soil and water integrated model (SWIM). All large river basins in Germany (lower Rhine, upper Danube, Elbe, Weser and Ems) are included. A special focus of the study was on data availability, homogeneity of data sets, related uncertainty propagation in the model results and scenario‐related uncertainty. After the model calibration and validation (efficiency from 0·6 to 0·9 in 80% of cases) the water flow components were simulated at the hydrotope level, and the spatial distributions were compared with those in the Hydrological Atlas of Germany. The actual evapotransipration is likely to increase in most parts of Germany, while total runoff generation may decrease in south and east regions. The results for the second scenario period 2051–2060 show that water discharge in all six rivers would be 8–30% lower in summer and autumn compared with the reference period, and the strongest decline is expected for the Saale, Danube and Neckar. Higher winter flow is expected in all of these rivers, and the increase is most significant for the Ems (about 18%). However, the uncertainty of impacts, especially in winter and for high water flows, remains high. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献