共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 37 毫秒
1.
ABSTRACTThe major flood of 2014 in the two eastern, transboundary rivers, the Jhelum and Chenab in Punjab, Pakistan, was simulated using the two-dimensional rainfall–runoff model. The simulated hydrograph showed good agreement with the observed discharge at the model outlet and intervening barrages, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.86 at the basin outlet. Further, simulated flood inundation extent showed good agreement with the MODIS imagery with a fit (%) of 0.87. For some affected areas that experienced short-duration flooding, local housing damage data confirmed the simulated results. Besides the rainfall–runoff and flood inundation modelling, parameter sensitivity analysis was undertaken to identify the influence of various river and floodplain parameters. The analysis showed that the river channel geometric parameters and the roughness coefficients exerted the primary influence over flood extent and peak flow. 相似文献
2.
Prabin Rokaya Luis Morales-Marín Barrie Bonsal Howard Wheater Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(11):1265-1278
ABSTRACTIn cold region environments, any alteration in the hydro-climatic regime can have profound impacts on river ice processes. This paper studies the implications of hydro-climatic trends on river ice processes, particularly on the freeze-up and ice-cover breakup along the Athabasca River in Fort McMurray in western Canada, which is an area very prone to ice-jam flooding. Using a stochastic approach in a one-dimensional hydrodynamic river ice model, a relationship between overbank flow and breakup discharge is established. Furthermore, the likelihood of ice-jam flooding in the future (2041–2070 period) is assessed by forcing a hydrological model with meteorological inputs from the Canadian regional climate model driven by two atmospheric–ocean general circulation climate models. Our results show that the probability of ice-jam flooding for the town of Fort McMurray in the future will be lower, but extreme ice-jam flood events are still probable. 相似文献
3.
TÓMAS JÓHANNESSON 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):417-434
Abstract Observations from the jökulhlaup from Grímsvötn in Vatnajökull, south-eastern Iceland, in 1996 indicate that the jökulhlaup was initiated by the movement of a localised pressure wave that travelled 50 km in 10 h from Grimsvötn to the terminus, forming a subglacial pathway along the glacier bed. Shortly after this wave reached the terminus, the jökulhlaup was flowing at a high discharge through a tunnel that would have needed much longer time to form by ice melting as assumed in existing theories of jökulhlaups. Frozen sediments formed in crevasses and frazil ice on the surface of the flood waters indicate the flow of supercooled water in the terminus region, demonstrating that the rate of heat transfer from subglacial flood water to the overlying ice is greatly underestimated in current theories. 相似文献
4.
Rudolf Brázdil Zdeněk Máčka Ladislava Řezníčková Eva Soukalová Petr Dobrovolný Tomáš Matys Grygar 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1166-1185
Abstract The development of the River Morava floodplain has been influenced by several natural and anthropogenic factors. This paper focuses on variations in flood activity and channel changes of the River Morava in the region of Strá?nické Pomoraví (southeastern Czech Republic). Floods are analysed in terms of measured peak water stages, Hk (Rohatec, 1886–1920) and peak discharges Qk (Rohatec/Strá?nice, 1921–2010) evaluated with respect to their N-year return period (H N or QN ). The frequency of floods with Qk ≥ Q 2 reaches a significant maximum in March, followed by July. According to flood series compiled from 1881 onwards, their frequency peaked in the 1961–1970 decade with the most severe events occurring in July 1997 (Q 100), March 2006 and June 2010 (Q 50). During the study period the natural dynamics of the original anabranching channel patterns were significantly modified by human intervention, such as the abandonment of some anabranching channels, channel straightening, enlargement of the main channel, flood-dike construction, and the creation of the Ba?a shipping channel. These changes resulted in decreased frequency and a reduction in the extent of floodplain inundations compared to the period prior to channel modifications in the 1930s. Citation Brázdil, R., Má?ka, Z., ?ezní?ková, L., Soukalová, E., Dobrovolný, P. & Matys Grygar, T. (2011) Floods and floodplain changes of the River Morava, the Strá?nické Pomoraví region (Czech Republic) over the past 130 years. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1166–1185. 相似文献
5.
Abstract Rome has been plagued by flooding since its foundation, and, in December 2008, the largest flood event over the past 20 years caused a fatality and more than €150 million in economic damage. Meteorological conditions associated with the December 2008 flooding are shown to be typical of flooding in the Tiber. The long record of discharge measurements of the Tiber River at the Ripetta station in downtown Rome was used to examine flood frequency for the Tiber, including assessment of the return interval of the December 2008 flood. Particular attention is given to examination of the stationarity assumption for flood peaks through change-point and trend analyses, quantile regression, and statistical modelling of the flood-peak distribution. Once anthropogenic changes linked to reservoir regulation of the Tiber River have been accounted for, the stationarity assumption holds and can be used for flood frequency analysis. We highlight the difficulties in detecting departures from the stationarity assumption due to climate change. In the current regime, the December 2008 flood event has a return period of the order of 10–20 years. Citation Villarini, G., Smith, J.A., Napolitano, F. & Baeck, M.L. (2011) Hydrometeorological analyses of the December 2008 flood in Rome. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1150–1165. 相似文献
6.
Abstract This study contributes to the comprehensive assessment of flood hazard and risk for the Phrae flood plain of the Yom River basin in northern Thailand. The study was carried out using a hydrologic–hydrodynamic model in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS). The model was calibrated and verified using the observed rainfall and river flood data during flood seasons in 1994 and 2001, respectively. Flooding scenarios were evaluated in terms of flooding depth for events of 25-, 50-, 100- and 200-year return periods. An impact-based hazard estimation technique was applied to assess the degree of hazard across the flood plain. The results showed that 78% of the Phrae flood-plain area of 476 km2 in the upper Yom River basin lies in the hazard zone of the 100-year return-period flood. Risk analyses were performed by incorporating flood hazard and the vulnerability of elements at risk. Based on relative magnitude of risk, flood-prone areas were divided into low-, moderate-, high- and severe-risk zones. For the 100-year return-period flood, the risk-free area was found to be 22% of the total flood plain, while areas under low, medium, high and severe risk were 33, 11, 28 and 6%, respectively. The outcomes are consistent with overall property damage recorded in the past. The study identifies risk areas for priority-based flood management, which is crucial when there is a limited budget to protect the entire risk zone simultaneously. Citation Tingsanchali, T. & Karim, F. (2010) Flood-hazard assessment and risk-based zoning of a tropical flood plain: case study of the Yom River, Thailand. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(2), 145–161. 相似文献
7.
Abstractt Spatio-temporal storm properties have a large impact on catchment hydrological response. The sensitivity of simulated flash floods to convective rain-cell characteristics is examined for an extreme storm event over a 94 km2 semi-arid catchment in southern Israel. High space–time resolution weather radar data were used to derive and model convective rain cells that then served as input into a hydrological model. Based on alterations of location, direction and speed of a major rain cell, identified as the flooding cell for this case, the impacts on catchment rainfall and generated flood were examined. Global sensitivity analysis was applied to identify the most important factors affecting the flash flood peak discharge at the catchment outlet. We found that the flood peak discharge could be increased three-fold by relatively small changes in rain-cell characteristics. We assessed that the maximum flash flood magnitude that this single rain cell can produce is 175 m3/s, and, taking into account the rest of the rain cells, the flash flood peak discharge can reach 260 m3/s.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. MooreCitation Morin, E. and Yakir, H., 2013. Hydrological impact and potential flooding of convective rain cells in a semi-arid environment. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1275–1284. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.841315 相似文献
8.
Abstract The flooding and drying mechanisms of the seasonal flood plains of the Sudd swamps in southern Sudan are, while dependent on the river levels, influenced by a complex interaction between soil, vegetation, topography and seasonal trends in rainfall and evapotranspiration. Based on field measurements, these components have been assessed in detail and evaluated regarding their function in the seasonal cycle of flooding and drying. A detailed analysis of soil and evapotranspiration conditions, as well as the interaction with vegetation and meteorological conditions, has been conducted using field and laboratory experiments. Sources, processes, flow directions and the fate of the floodwaters on both the river-fed seasonal flood plains and the rain-fed grasslands have been established. The results show that river spill is responsible for flooding these areas while no return flow occurs, and drying is caused by evapotranspiration. Rainfall can only cause temporary flooding in extreme events. Citation Petersen, G. & Fohrer, N. (2010) Flooding and drying mechanisms of the seasonal Sudd flood plains along the Bahr el Jebel in southern Sudan. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(1), 4–16. 相似文献
9.
Spatial and temporal patterns of spring break‐up flooding in the Slave River Delta (SRD), Northwest Territories, are characterized during three years (2003–2005) using water isotope tracers and total inorganic suspended sediment (TSS) concentrations measured from lakewater samples collected shortly after the spring melt. Strongly contrasting spring melt periods led to a moderate flood in 2003, no flooding in 2004 and widespread flooding in 2005. Flooded lakes have isotopically‐depleted δ18O (δ2H) signatures, ranging between ? 19·2‰ (?145‰) and ? 17·1‰ (?146‰) and most have high TSS concentrations (>10 mg L?1), while non‐flooded lakes have more isotopically‐enriched δ18O (δ2H) signatures, ranging between ? 18·2‰ (?149‰) and ? 10·6‰ (?118‰) and low TSS concentrations (<10 mg L?1). These results, in conjunction with the isotopic signatures of Slave River water and snowmelt, are used to estimate the proportion of river‐ or snowmelt‐induced dilution in delta lakes during the spring of each study year. Calculations indicate river flooding caused dilution of ～70–100% in delta lakes, while snowmelt dilution in the absence of river flooding ranged from ～0–56%. A positive relationship exists between the spatial extent of spring flooding in the SRD and level and discharge on the Slave River and upstream tributaries, suggesting that upstream flow generation plays a key role in determining the magnitude of spring flooding in the SRD. Parallel variations in the 46‐year instrumental Slave River discharge record and flood stratigraphy in the active delta indicate that there is potential for extending the flood history of the SRD, a development that will contribute to a more robust understanding of the drivers of historic, contemporary and future flood frequency in the delta. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
Aline Anderson de Castro Luz Adriana Cuartas Michael T. Coe Celso Von Randow Andrea Castanho Alex Ovando 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(13-14):1954-1966
ABSTRACTWe coupled the hydrologic routing and flood dynamics model Terrestrial Hydrology Model with Biogeochemistry (THMB) to the Integrated LAND Surface Model (INLAND) and compared simulations of the discharge and flood extent area against gauge station and satellite-based information in the Amazon Basin. The coupled model represents well the seasonality of the flooding and discharge, but underestimates both of them. This can be related to an already discussed underestimate of the precipitation in the east of the Andes Mountains. A photosynthesis limitation on the flooded area was also included, showing changes in plant productivity and reduction in vegetation carbon stocks. Despite its limitations, the model proves to be a valuable tool for studies of the hydrological cycle and flood dynamics response to climate change projections, allowing it to be used to represent the feedbacks between continental surface water cycle and vegetation. 相似文献
11.
In northern regions, river ice‐ jam flooding can be more severe than open‐water flooding causing property and infrastructure damages, loss of human life and adverse impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Very little has been performed to assess the risk induced by ice‐related floods because most risk assessments are limited to open‐water floods. The specific objective of this study is to incorporate ice‐jam numerical modelling tools (e.g. RIVICE, Monte‐Carlo simulation) into flood hazard and risk assessment along the Peace River at the Town of Peace River (TPR) in Alberta, Canada. Adequate historical data for different ice‐jam and open‐water flooding events were available for this study site and were useful in developing ice‐affected stage‐frequency curves. These curves were then applied to calibrate a numerical hydraulic model, which simulated different ice jams and flood scenarios along the Peace River at the TPR. A Monte‐Carlo analysis was then carried out to acquire an ensemble of water level profiles to determine the 1 : 100‐year and 1 : 200‐year annual exceedance probability flood stages for the TPR. These flood stages were then used to map flood hazard and vulnerability of the TPR. Finally, the flood risk for a 200‐year return period was calculated to be an average of $32/m2/a ($/m2/a corresponds to a unit of annual expected damages or risk). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
AbstractHydrological alteration within an ice-marginal valley is analysed in relation to flooding by the River Vistula flowing within that valley. Specifically, the analysis covers the period of the last two centuries (up to the present day), making reference to human impacts and natural disasters. Seven topographic maps, as well as digital terrain model (DTM) analysis of the extent of flooded areas are used to evaluate the linkage with historical flood events. Within the ice-marginal valley, flooding processes are found to still play an important role on the floodplain, although human activities have limited these significantly through the construction of embankments. The changing characteristics of floods generated by different mechanisms (e.g. heavy rainfall and ice jams) are also discussed.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis 相似文献
13.
Palaeoflood hydraulic modelling is essential for quantifying ‘millennial flood’ events not covered in the instrumental record. Palaeoflood modelling research has largely focused on one-dimensional analysis for geomorphologically stable fluvial settings because two-dimensional analysis for dynamic alluvial settings is time consuming and requires a detailed representation of the past landscape. In this study, we make the step to spatially continuous palaeoflood modelling for a large and dynamic lowland area. We applied advanced hydraulic model simulations (1D–2D coupled set-up in HEC-RAS with 950 channel sections and 108 × 103 floodplain grid cells) to quantify the extent and magnitude of past floods in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta. As input, we used a high-resolution terrain reconstruction (palaeo-DEM) of the area in early mediaeval times, complemented with hydraulic roughness values. After conducting a series of model runs with increasing discharge magnitudes at the upstream boundary, we compared the simulated flood water levels with an inventory of exceeded and non-exceeded elevations extracted from various geological, archaeological and historical sources. This comparison demonstrated a Lower Rhine millennial flood magnitude of approximately 14,000 m3/s for the Late Holocene period before late mediaeval times. This value exceeds the largest measured discharges in the instrumental record, but not the design discharges currently accounted for in flood risk management. 相似文献
14.
AbstractThis paper addresses the hydrological and meteorological extremes that may be deduced from the taxation records of the estates of Brtnice, T?ebí? and Velké Mezi?í?í, all in the Moravian-Bohemian Highlands of the Czech Republic, for the years 1706–1849. At that time, damage to agricultural crops constituted grounds for tax remission for individual farmers and landowners. Where it survives, the relevant administrative documentation generally includes a statement from the applicant, a report by the official commission tasked with checking the contents of it, and any decisions made by taxation authorities at regional and “land” level (the Jihlava regional office and the Moravian Land Administration (“Gubernium”) respectively). Data extracted may include the type of event, dating, places of occurrence and damage done. The chronology of hydrological and meteorological extremes (torrential rain, flash flood, flood, hailstorm, lightning, frost) covers the period 1706–1849, but only four events are evident before 1748 and there is a gap in records between 1757 and 1789. Extremes are analysed from a spatio-temporal point of view. A total of 97 extreme events (171 extremes of particular type) were identified for the region studied. Torrential rain, hailstorm and flash flood were the major devastating phenomena, and occurred mainly from May to August. Torrential rain and hailstorm are clearly attributable to thunderstorms with very intense convection. Five outstanding events and their impacts upon individual farmers are described in detail. The results are discussed with respect to uncertainties in the basic data and in the context of the Czech Lands, because only some of the extremes disclosed are known and confirmed by other documentary data.
Editor Z.W. KundzewiczCitation Dolák, L., Brázdil, R., and Valá?ek, H., 2013. Hydrological and meteorological extremes derived from taxation records: the estates of Brtnice, T?ebí? and Velké Mezi?í?í, 1706–1849. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1620–1634. 相似文献
15.
Dr. ISTVAN BOGAgraveRDI 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):14-24
Abstract Highwater stages of frequently very long duration which commonly develop on plain-land watercourses having flat slopes, constitute a fatigue loading on the flood levees built along such streams. In order to describe by a single parameter the magnitude of this fatigue load, the concept of flood exposure has been introduced and defined as the area under the flood hydrograph exceeding a certain stage (the toe of the levee). Consequently both stage and duration of highwater are taken into consideration. Positive relationships have been found to exist between the magnitude of flood exposure and adverse phenomena associated with highwaters (groundwater emergence, underseepage, leakage, boil formation, saturation slumping and wave action). The magnitude of the labour force, fleet of mechanical equipment and materials used in flood fighting, consequently the costs thereof depend to a significant extent on the magnitude of flood exposure, which can thus be used conveniently for economic analysis as well. Mathematical statistical analysis has shown the logarithmic normal distribution to fit best to the empirical distribution of flood exposure. The full set of data was found to be homogeneous in the gaging sections examined on the Danube and Tisza Rivers. Sets of data have been grouped according to the dates of major interference into the life of the watercourse. It was found further that in the sections considered the duration of highwaters could also be regarded as a homogeneous random variable. 相似文献
16.
Nektarios N. Kourgialas 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):212-225
Abstract This paper presents a viable approach for flood management strategy in a river basin based on the European Floods Directive. A reliable flood management plan has two components: (a) a proper flood management strategy, and (b) the determination of the flood-hazard areas. A method to evaluate the benefits of a flood warning system is presented herein, as well as a method to estimate the flood-hazard areas. Six factors were considered in order to estimate the spatial distribution of the hazardous areas: flow accumulation, slope, land use, rainfall intensity, geology and elevation. The study area was divided into five regions characterized by different degrees of flood hazard ranging from very low to very high. The produced map of flood-hazard areas identifies the areas and settlements at high risk of flooding. The proposed methodology can be applied to any river basin and here was applied to the Koiliaris River basin in Greece. Citation Kourgialas, N. N. & Karatzas, G. P. (2011) Flood management and a GIS modelling method to assess flood-hazard areas—a case study. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(2), 212–225. 相似文献
17.
ABSTRACTAccurate assessment of stage–discharge relationships in open channel flows is important to the design and management of hydraulic structures and engineering. Flow junctions commonly occur at the confluence of natural rivers or streams. The effect of flow junctions on the stage–discharge relationship at mountain river confluences was found by measuring velocity fields and water levels in experimental models. The results show that the backwater and accumulation–separation at flow junctions affect the flow structures and patterns in the channel; also, flow confluences may induce complex flow characteristics of backwater and flow separation at river junctions, indicating potential submerged flooding disasters within the confluence zone. The impacts of flow junctions on the stage–discharge relationship are investigated for two physical confluence models built from river confluence prototype systems in southwest China. The results show that the presence of tributary river inflows tends to increase the water level of the main river. This is important for flood control, flood-risk evaluation and engineering (e.g. hydropower station construction) in mountain rivers. Finally, a comparative quantitative analysis based on flow motion equations is conducted to evaluate the stage–discharge relationship in both uniform and regular confluence systems. The results indicate that more accurate prediction can be made when taking into account the flow non-uniformity induced by flow separation, backwater and distorted bed in the junction region. 相似文献
18.
Casey R. Remmer Tanner Owca Laura Neary Johan A. Wiklund Mitchell Kay Brent B. Wolfe Roland I. Hall 《水文研究》2020,34(2):303-320
Hydrological monitoring in complex, dynamic northern floodplain landscapes is challenging, but increasingly important as a consequence of multiple stressors. The Peace-Athabasca Delta in northern Alberta, Canada, is a Ramsar Wetland of International Importance reliant on episodic river ice-jam flood events to recharge abundant perched lakes and wetlands. Improved and systematic monitoring of landscape-scale hydrological connectivity among freshwater ecosystems (rivers, channels, wetlands, and lakes) is needed to guide stewardship decisions in the face of climate change and upstream industrial development. Here, we use water isotope compositions, supplemented by measurements of specific conductivity and field observations, from 68 lakes and 9 river sites in May 2018 to delineate the extent and magnitude of spring ice-jam induced flooding along the Peace and Athabasca rivers. Lake-specific estimates of input water isotope composition (δI) were modelled after accounting for influence of evaporative isotopic enrichment. Then, using the distinct isotopic signature of input water sources, we develop a set of binary mixing models and estimate the proportion of input to flooded lakes attributable to river floodwater and precipitation (snow or rain). This approach allowed identification of areas and magnitude of flooding that were not captured by other methods, including direct observations from flyovers, and to demarcate flow pathways in the delta. We demonstrate water isotope tracers as an efficient and effective monitoring tool for delineating spatial extent and magnitude of an important hydrological process and elucidating connectivity in the Peace-Athabasca Delta, an approach that can be readily adopted at other floodplain landscapes. 相似文献
19.
Abstract In the current context of climatic variability, it is important to quantify the impact on the environment. This study deals with an analysis of climatic data and land-use changes in terms of the impacts on flood recurrence based on multisource data. The study area covers the mouth of the Saint-François River (southern Québec, Canada), where spring floods and ice jams are a recurring problem. The flood frequency analysis shows an increase in flooding over recent decades, attributable to an increase in winter temperatures that has the effect of causing ice jams earlier in the year. Regarding land-use changes, a small decrease in agricultural surface areas is observed, from 53% to 39%, along with increases in forest and urban surface areas from 27% to 38% (forest) and 3% to 5% (urban) between 1928 and 2005. In a context of continuing climate warming, more pronounced inter-annual variations are to be expected along with a higher incidence of flooding. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Ouellet, C., Saint-Laurent, D. and Normand, F., 2012. Flood events and flood risk assessment in relation to climate and land-use changes: Saint-François River, southern Québec, Canada. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 313–325. 相似文献
20.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)
Abstract Major floods in Europe and North America during the past decade have provoked the question of whether or not they are an effect of a changing climate. This study investigates changes in observational data, using up to 100-year-long daily mean river flow records at 21 stations worldwide. Trends in seven flood and low-flow index series are assessed using Mann-Kendall and linear regression methods. Emphasis was on the comparison of trends in these flow index series, particularly in peak-over-threshold (POT) series as opposed to annual maximum (AM) river flow series. There is a larger number of significant trends in the AM than in the POT flood magnitude series, probably relating to the way the series are constructed. Low flood peaks occurring at the beginning or end of a time series with trend may be too low to be selected for the POT analysis. However, one peak per year will always be selected for the AM series, making the slope steeper and/or the series longer, resulting in a more significant trend. There is no general pattern of increasing or decreasing numbers or magnitudes of floods, but there are significant increases in half of the low-flow series. 相似文献