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1.
Climate change is expected to significantly affect flooding regimes of river systems in the future. For Western Europe, flood risk assessments generally assume an increase in extreme events and flood risk, and as a result major investments are planned to reduce their impacts. However, flood risk assessments for the present day and the near future suffer from uncertainty, coming from short measurements series, limited precision of input data, arbitrary choices for particular statistical and modelling approaches, and climatic non‐stationarities. This study demonstrates how historical and sedimentary information can extend data records, adds important information on extremes, and generally improves flood risk assessments. The collection of specific data on the occurrence and magnitude of extremes and the natural variability of the floods is shown to be of paramount importance to reduce uncertainty in our understanding of flooding regime changes in a changing climate. For the Lower Rhine (the Netherlands and Germany) estimated recurrence times and peak discharges associated with the current protection levels correlate poorly with historical and sedimentary information and seem biased towards the recent multi‐decadal period of increased flood activity. Multi‐decadal and centennial variability in flood activity is recorded in extended series of discharge data, historical information and sedimentary records. Over the last six centuries that variability correlates with components of the Atlantic climate system such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multi‐decadal Oscillation (AMO). These climatic non‐stationarities importantly influence flood activity and the outcomes of flood risk assessments based on relatively short measurement series. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Flooding on the German Rhine during the 20th century was tested for trends and assessed to identify causal mechanisms driving worsening of flooding. A review of previous research outlines the range of impacts due to climate change, land‐use shifts, and river regulation. Analysis of hydrologic data, especially of the long record at Cologne, documents statistically significant increases in both flood magnitudes and frequencies. Specific‐gauge analysis, which isolates the effects of channel modification, documents that 20th century river engineering has caused little of the observed increase in flooding on the German Rhine. Precipitation records from the Rhine basin confirm that flood magnification has been driven by upstream factors, including an increase in flood‐producing precipitation of roughly 25% during the past 100 years and increases in runoff yields. In addition, agricultural land‐use records suggest that flood magnification can be partially explained by 20th century trends documenting intensification and industrialization of German agriculture. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Abstract

The magnitudes of the largest known floods of the River Rhine in Basel since 1268 were assessed using a hydraulic model drawing on a set of pre-instrumental evidence and daily hydrological measurements from 1808. The pre-instrumental evidence, consisting of flood marks and documentary data describing extreme events with the customary reference to specific landmarks, was “calibrated” by comparing it with the instrumental series for the overlapping period between the two categories of evidence (1808–1900). Summer (JJA) floods were particularly frequent in the century between 1651–1750, when precipitation was also high. Severe winter (DJF) floods have not occurred since the late 19th century despite a significant increase in winter precipitation. Six catastrophic events involving a runoff greater than 6000 m 3 s‐1 are documented prior to 1700. They were initiated by spells of torrential rainfall of up to 72 h (1480 event) and preceded by long periods of substantial precipitation that saturated the soils, and/or by abundant snowmelt. All except two (1999 and 2007) of the 43 identified severe events (SEs: defined as having runoff > 5000 and < 6000 m 3 s ‐1) occurred prior to 1877. Not a single SE is documented from 1877 to 1998. The intermediate 121-year-long “flood disaster gap” is unique over the period since 1268. The effect of river regulations (1714 for the River Kander; 1877 for the River Aare) and the building of reservoirs in the 20th century upon peak runoff were investigated using a one-dimensional hydraulic flood-routing model. Results show that anthropogenic effects only partially account for the “flood disaster gap” suggesting that variations in climate should also be taken into account in explaining these features.

Citation Wetter, O., Pfister, C., Weingartner, R., Luterbacher, J., Reist, T., & Trösch, J. (2011) The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 733–758.  相似文献   

4.
Palaeoflood reconstructions based on stage evidence are typically conducted in data‐poor field settings. Few opportunities exist to calibrate the hydraulic models used to estimate discharge from this evidence. Consequently, an important hydraulic model parameter, the roughness coefficient (e.g. Manning's n), is typically estimated by a range of approximate techniques, such as ‘visual estimation’ and semi‐empirical equations. These techniques contribute uncertainty to resulting discharge estimates, especially where the study reach exhibits sensitivity in the discharge–Manning's n relation. We study this uncertainty within a hydraulic model for a large flood of known discharge on the Mae Chaem River, northern Thailand. Comparison of the ‘calibrated’ Manning's n with that obtained from semi‐empirical equations indicates that these underestimate roughness. Substantial roughness elements in the extra‐channel zone, inundated during large events, contribute significant additional sources of flow resistance that are captured neither by the semi‐empirical equations, nor by existing models predicting stage–roughness variations. This bedrock channel exhibits a complex discharge–Manning's n relation, and reliable estimates of the former are dependent upon realistic assignment of the latter. Our study demonstrates that a large recent flood can provide a valuable opportunity to constrain this parameter, and this is illustrated when we model a palaeoflood event in the same reach, and subsequently examine the magnitude–return period consequences of discharge uncertainty within a flood frequency analysis, which contributes its own source of uncertainty. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
The embanked floodplains of the lower River Rhine in the Netherlands contain large amounts of heavy metals, which is a result of many years deposition of contaminated overbank sediments. Depending on local sedimentation rates and changing pollution trends in the past, the metal pollution varies greatly between different floodplain sections as well as vertically within the floodplain soil profiles. Maximum metal concentrations in floodplain soils vary from 30 to 130 mg/kg for Cu, from 70 to 490 mg/kg for Pb and from 170 to 1450 mg/kg for Zn. In the present study these metals were used as a tracer to reconstruct sedimentation rates at 28 sites on the lower River Rhine floodplains. The temporal trend in pollution of the lower River Rhine over the past 150 years was reconstructed on the basis of metal concentrations in sediments from small ponds within the floodplain area. Using a one‐dimensional sedimentation model, average sedimentation rates over the past century were determined using an inverse modelling calibration procedure. The advantage of this method is that it uses information over an entire profile, it requires only a limited number of samples, it accounts for post‐depositional redistribution of the metals, and it provides quantitative estimates of the precision of the sedimentation rates obtained. Estimated sedimentation rates vary between about 0·2 mm/year and 15 mm/year. The lowest metal concentrations are found in the distal parts of floodplain sections with low flooding frequencies and where average sedimentation rates have been less than about 5 mm/year. The largest metal accumulations occur in low‐lying floodplain sections where average sedimentation rates have been more than 10 mm/year. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
The reconstruction of past flash floods in ungauged basins leads to a high level of uncertainty, which increases if other processes are involved such as the transport of large wood material. An important flash flood occurred in 1997 in Venero Claro (Central Spain), causing significant economic losses. The wood material clogged bridge sections, raising the water level upstream. The aim of this study was to reconstruct this event, analysing the influence of woody debris transport on the flood hazard pattern. Because the reach in question was affected by backwater effects due to bridge clogging, using only high water mark or palaeostage indicators may overestimate discharges, and so other methods are required to estimate peak flows. Therefore, the peak discharge was estimated (123 ± 18 m3 s–1) using indirect methods, but one‐dimensional hydraulic simulation was also used to validate these indirect estimates through an iterative process (127 ± 33 m3 s–1) and reconstruct the bridge obstruction to obtain the blockage ratio during the 1997 event (~48%) and the bridge clogging curves. Rainfall–Runoff modelling with stochastic simulation of different rainfall field configurations also helped to confirm that a peak discharge greater than 150 m3 s–1 is very unlikely to occur and that the estimated discharge range is consistent with the estimated rainfall amount (233 ± 27 mm). It was observed that the backwater effect due to the obstruction (water level ~7 m) made the 1997 flood (~35‐year return period) equivalent to the 50‐year flood. This allowed the equivalent return period to be defined as the recurrence interval of an event of specified magnitude, which, where large woody debris is present, is equivalent in water depth and extent of flooded area to a more extreme event of greater magnitude. These results highlight the need to include obstruction phenomena in flood hazard analysis. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Geomorphological evidence and recent trash lines were used as stage indicators in a step-backwater computer model of high discharges through an ungauged bedrock channel. The simulation indicated that the peak discharge from the 26.7 m2 catchment was close to 150m3s?1 during the passage of Hurricane Charlie in August 1986. This estimate can be compared with an estimate of 130–160 m3s?1 obtained using the Flood Studies Report (FSR) unit hydrograph methodology. Other palaeostage marks indicate that higher stages have occurred at an earlier time associated with a discharge of 200 m3s?1. However, consideration of both the geometry of a plunge pool and transport criteria for bedrock blocks in the channel indicates that floods since 1986 have not exceeded 150 m3s?1. Given that the estimated probable maximum flood (PMF) calculated from revised FSR procedure is at least 240 m3s?1, it is concluded that compelling evidence for floods equal to the PMF is lacking. Taking into consideration the uncertainty of the discharge estimation, the 1986 flood computed using field evidence has a minimum return period of 100 years using the FSR procedure. This may be compared with a return period for the same event in the neighbouring gauged River Greta of > 100 years and a rainfall return period of 190 years. In as much as discharges of similar order to FSR estimates are indicated, it is concluded (a) that regional geomorphological evidence and flood simulation within ungauged catchments may be useful as a verification for hydrological estimates of recent widespread flood magnitude and (b) that palaeohydraulic computation can be useful in determining the magnitude of the local maximum [historic] flood when determining design discharges for hydraulic structures within specific catchments.  相似文献   

8.
On 8–9 September 2002, an extreme rainfall event caused by a stationary mesoscale convective system (MCS) occurred in the Gard region, France. Distributed hydrologic and hydraulic modelling has been carried out to assess and compare the various sources of data collected operationally and during the post-event field surveys. Distributed hydrological modelling was performed with n-TOPMODELs and assessed for ungauged basins with the discharge estimates of the post-event surveys. A careful examination of the occurrence in time and space of the flash floods over the head watersheds indicates that flooding was controlled by the trajectory of the convective part of the MCS. Stationarity of the MCS over the Gardon watershed (1858 km2 at Remoulins) for 28 h was responsible for the exceptional magnitude of the flood at this scale. The flood dynamics were characterized by an extensive inundation of the Gardonnenque plain upstream of the Gardon Gorges resulting in a significant peak flow reduction downstream. One-dimensional unsteady-flow hydraulic modelling was found to be required to reproduce these dynamics. Hydraulic modelling also proved to be potentially useful for the critical analysis and extrapolation of operational discharge rating curves.  相似文献   

9.
Both climate change and river rehabilitation projects induce changes in floodplain sedimentation. Notably along the lower River Rhine, the sediment deposition patterns and rates are subject to change. To assess the magnitude of these changes, we developed the MoCSED model, a floodplain sedimentation model within a geographical information system for the lower Rhine River. We based MoCSED on the ‘method of characteristics’ (MoC), a particle tracking method that minimizes numerical dispersion. We implemented the MoCSED model in the PCRaster dynamic modelling language. The model input comprises initial suspended sediment concentrations, water levels, flow velocities, and longitudinal and transverse dispersivities. We used a combination of the Krone and Chen concepts to calculate the subsequent sedimentation (SED routine). We compared the model results with sediment trap data for the Bemmel floodplain along the Dutch Waal River during the 2003 inundation. This comparison showed that MoCSED was able to simulate the pattern of sediment deposition. In addition, the model proved to be an improvement in comparison with a conventional raster‐based floodplain sedimentation model for the lower River Rhine. In future, MoCSED may serve well to study the impact of a changing discharge regime due to climate change and floodplain rehabilitation plans on deposition of sediments. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
For data treatment of phytoplankton countings in the Lower Rhine the specific biovolume was calculated. The used computer-aided method is described, and the correlation between phytoplankton biomass, cell number and chlorophyll a is presented.  相似文献   

11.
The advent of 2D hydraulic modelling has improved our understanding of flood hydraulics, thresholds, and dynamic effects on floodplain geomorphology and riparian vegetation at the morphological-unit scale. Hydraulic concepts of bed shear stress, stream power maxima, and energy (cumulative stream power) have been used to characterize floods and define their geomorphic effectiveness. These hydraulic concepts were developed in the context of reach-averaged, 1D hydraulic analyses, but their application to 2D model results is problematic due to differences in the treatment of energy losses in 1D and 2D analyses. Here we present methods for estimating total and boundary resistance from 2D modelling of an extreme flood on a subtropical river. Hydraulic model results are correlated with observations of the flood impacts on floodplain geomorphology and the riparian vegetation to identify thresholds and compute variants of flood energy. Comparison of LiDAR data in 2011 and 2014 shows that the 2011 flood produced 2–4 m of erosion on floodplain bars that were previously forested or grass-covered. Deposition on flood levees, dunes, and chute bars was up to 3.4 m thick. Various hydraulic metrics were trialled as candidates for thresholds of vegetation disturbance. The accuracy of thresholds using metrics extracted at the flood peak (i.e. boundary resistance and stream power maxima) was similar to that using energy as a threshold. Disturbance to forest and grass on vegetated bars was associated with stream powers of >834 W/m2 and unit flows of >26 m2/s, respectively. Correlation of the hydraulic metrics with erosion and deposition depths showed no substantial improvement in using flood energy compared to metrics extracted at the flood peak for describing erosion and deposition. The extent of vegetation disturbances and morphological adjustments was limited for this extreme flood, and further 2D studies are needed to compare disturbance thresholds across different environments.  相似文献   

12.
The river Rhine has lain under considerable anthropogenic stress of its water quality for 100 years. As early as 1905 the first results of studies of the plankton in the Rhine were published. Due to the long residence time of the water a real potamoplankton can develop and at the end of the Lower Rhine it reaches its highest density. The paper consists of two parts. At first an overview is given about the history of plankton studies in the Rhine. The second part is the presentation of results from a monitoring at the Lower Rhine from 1979 to 2004.First systematic studies started at the beginning of the 20th century at the beginning of pollution. Our studies started during a phase of recreation from extreme pollution and eutrophication. Samples were taken at four stations: Bad Honnef, km 640, entrance to North Rhine-Westphalia, Düsseldorf, km 732, Duisburg, km 792 downstream large industrial effluents and big cities, Kleve-Bimmen, km 865 at the border to the Netherlands.In the 1970s nutrients were high, especially phosphate 0.65 mg PO4-P L−1 in 1979. After 1980 phosphate dropped to 0.11 mg PO4-P L−1 in 2004 (mean values of the growing season). Ammonia was reduced from about 0.52 (1979) to 0.02 (2004) mg NH4-N L−1. Nitrate remained between 3.72 (1989) and 2.26 (2004) mg NO3-N L−1 at a relatively high level. Oxygen concentrations were very low during the 1960s and 1970s, sometimes only 4 mg L−1 O2. During our studies the oxygen increased up to 9 mg L−1 O2 with a tendency to 11 mg L−1 O2 in the last years. Chlorophyll a was estimated to be between 59 (1979) and 31μg L−1 (1986) with short peaks up to 170 μg L−1 (1989). Since 1992 the mean values have varied between 30 (1993) and 21 μg L−1 (2004).The floristic phytoplankton composition is characterised by the dominance of the centric diatom Stephanodiscus hantzschii. Other diatoms like Skeletonema subsalsum, Skeletonema potamos and Asterionella formosa were regularly present in smaller quantities. The second dominant group was coccale green algae. During the 1980s they formed up to 35% of the biomass. Since the 1990s their contribution to the phytoplankton became much smaller. This change corresponds with the increase of wastewater treatment and the diminution of nutrients. All the other groups of algae were present in minor quantities. During the time of higher trophy in the 1970s and 1980s the phytoplankton formed two peaks, in recent years only one peak has developed, depending on different flow conditions during the growing season and lower trophic state in the upstream parts of the river.Excellent correspondence exists between cell number, biovolume and chlorophyll a content and the results of delayed fluorescence (DF) measurement. The trophic status in the Lower Rhine may be estimated as (moderate) eutrophic. The ecological status of the phytoplankton is good based on the requirements of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD).The zooplankton consists mainly of rotatoria and larvs of Dreissena polymorpha. Grazing on phytoplankton seems to be mainly due to the large quantities of benthic Dreissena and the newly introduced mussel Corbicula.  相似文献   

13.
Reconstruction of high‐frequency erosion variability beyond the instrumental record requires well‐dated, high‐resolution proxies from sediment archives. We used computed tomography (CT) scans of finely laminated silt layers from a lake‐sediment record in southwest Oregon to quantify the magnitude of natural landscape erosion events over the last 2000 years in order to compare with palaeorecords of climate, forest fire, and seismic triggers. Sedimentation rates were modeled from an age–depth relationship fit through five 14C dates and the 1964 AD 137Cs peak in which deposition time (yr mm‐1) varied inversely with the proportion of silt sediment measured by the CT profile. This model resulted in pseudo‐annual estimates of silt deposition for the last 2000 years. Silt accumulation during the past 80 years was strongly correlated with river‐discharge at annual and decadal scales, revealing that erosion was highly responsive to precipitation during the logging era (1930–present). Before logging the frequency–magnitude relationship displayed a power‐law distribution that is characteristic of complex feedbacks and self‐regulating mechanisms. The 100‐year and 10‐year erosion magnitude estimated in a 99‐year moving window varied by 1.7 and 1.0 orders of magnitude, respectively. Decadal erosion magnitude was only moderately positively correlated with a summer temperature reconstruction over the period 900–1900 AD. Magnitude of the seven largest events was similar to the cumulative silt accumulation anomaly, suggesting these events ‘returned the system’ to the long‐term mean rate. Instead, the occurrence of most erosion events was related to fire (silt layers preceded by high charcoal concentration) and earthquakes (the seven thickest layers often match paleo‐earthquake dates). Our data show how internal (i.e. sediment production) and external processes (natural fires or more stochastic events such as earthquakes) co‐determine erosion regimes at millennial time scales, and the extent to which such processes can be offset by recent large‐scale deforestation by logging. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
The seventy-kilometre-long Herbert Gorge of northeastern Australia preserves a record of past floods in slackwater deposits and palaeostage indicators. Step-backwater modelling of water-surface profiles indicates that discharges ranging from 11000 to 17000 m3s?1 have occurred six times in the gorge during the last 900 years. These flood reconstructions provide insight into the role of extreme flows in shaping bedrock channel morphology. In particular, the hydraulics of extreme flows can be related to boulder transport, and to the location of large boulder bars. Large boulder bars occur throughout the Herbert Gorge, being best developed at loci of stream power minima along the inside of bends, at tributary junctions, and at obstructions in the channel caused by bedrock highs. Only the flows exceeding approximately 8000 m3 s?1 are competent to transport the boulders which constitute the bars. In the straight channel reaches, the boulder accumulations and bedrock highs have a fairly regular spacing which appears to be independent of lithologic or structural controls. The bars provide an efficient means of energy dissipation, and they are interpreted as a result of the inherent high turbulence of flow in a steep channel. The regular spacing of the bars, and their correspondence with the hydraulics of large flows, suggest that the bars and associated bedrock highs may represent a self-regulating mechanism akin to the pool-riffle sequence of alluvial channels. It may therefore be appropriate to view bedrock channels as deformable on the timescale of extreme discharges.  相似文献   

15.
Abstract

Extreme flood events have been and continue to be one of the most important natural hazards responsible for deaths and economic losses. Extreme floods result in direct destructive effects during the time of the event, and they also may be followed by a related chain of indirect calamities such as famines and epidemics that produce additional damages and suffering. Extreme hydrological events that have occurred in the historical past may also occur in the future. Knowledge about magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of past extreme hydrological events in most regions are too short to adequately evaluate potential magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of extreme hydrological events. Stationary climate in which the mean and variance do not change over time is a basic underlying assumption of standard methodological procedures for estimating recurrence probabilities of extreme hydrological events. Palaeo-archives contained in river and lake sediments, fossil plant and animal matter, ice layers, and other natural archives show that the assumption of stationary climate is not valid when the time scale is extended beyond centuries and millennia. Records of past extreme floods that occurred long before the period of instrumentation can be reconstructed from the distribution of slackwater flood deposits or from derivation of water depths competent to transport the largest rocks found in flood deposited sediment. Palaeoflood records reconstructed from the Upper Mississippi and Lower Colorado River systems in the United States confirm nonstationary behaviour of the mean and variance in hydrological time series. These stratigraphic records have shown that even very modest climatic changes have resulted in very important changes in the magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of extreme floods. A close relationship was found between the palaeo-flood record of extreme floods in the Upper Mississippi River system and a palaeo-record of stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon preserved in speleothem calcite from a local cave. The relationship suggests that isotopic records elsewhere might be calibrated to provide insight about how future potential climate changes might impact extreme flood magnitudes and recurrence frequencies there. Atmospheric global circulation models (GCMs) mainly simulate average climatic conditions and are presently inadequate sources of information about how future climate changes might be represented at the extreme event scale. Palaeo-flood archives, however, provide basic information about how magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of extreme hydrological events responded to past climate changes and they also provide a reference base against which GCM simulations can be calibrated regionally and be better interpreted to decipher hydrological information at the extreme event scale.  相似文献   

16.
Geomorphic evidence along bedrock-confined reaches of the Salt River in east-central Arizona provides a record of the river's largest flood events. Fine-grained flood slackwater deposits accumulated at channel margin irregularities several metres above the low-flow channel. Discharges associated with flow events responsible for the deposits were estimated by computer flow modelling. These estimates document flood magnitudes in excess of gauged historic streamflows. Relative and radiocarbon dating suggest that a flood record in excess of 600 y is preserved in the slackwater sequences. A prominent flood scar cut into grussy hillslope soils allows the extension of the prehistoric flood record to several thousand years. A maximum discharge estimate of 4600 m3s?1 affixed to the flood scar represents the largest flood event in the record, and is given a minimum recurrence interval of 1000–2000 y. The 1952 flood is the largest historic flow event experienced along the study reach and is estimated at 2900 m3s?1. Two palaeoflood events preserved in the slackwater stratigraphy exceed the 1952 event, and are given recurrence intervals of 300 and 600 y. The latter flood event had an estimated discharge of 3200 m3s?1. It is apparent that discharge estimates affixed to these infrequent, large-magnitude flood events approach a maximum with decreased probabilities (large recurrence intervals). This suggests that a physical limit on discharge may exist within the Salt River drainage basin and is perhaps directly related to drainage basin size.  相似文献   

17.
通过野外观察研究,在黄河中游晋陕峡谷龙门段乡宁-韩城大桥西端支沟内,发现了全新世古洪水滞流沉积物.通过野外观察和室内实验分析,证明它们是黄河特大洪水悬移质泥沙在高水位滞流环境下的沉积物,记录了黄河晋陕峡谷段一期4次特大古洪水事件.通过地层学对比分析和光释光测年,确定这4次洪水发生在全新世中期-晚期转折阶段,即我国历史上商代末期-西周初期的气候突变转型期.利用"古洪水滞流沉积物厚度含沙量法"恢复古洪水洪峰水位,运用HEC-RAS模型估算出4次古洪水事件洪峰流量介于46280~48800 m~3/s之间.这些成果为黄河中游地区的防洪减灾、水资源开发利用、流域生态环境综合治理等方面提供了可靠的超长尺度水文数据.这为深入理解黄河流域水文系统对于全球变化的响应规律提供了新的证据.  相似文献   

18.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):655-664
Abstract

Palaeohydraulic modelling is presented for Athabasca Vallis, the youngest known catastrophic flood channel on Mars. This modelling incorporates three significant advantages over previous modelling of Martian channels: a step-backwater hydraulic model; more accurate topography; and improved flood height indicators. The maximum modelled palaeodischarge is between 1 × 106 and 2 × 106m3s?1 depending on the friction coefficient selected. An anomalously high palaeostage indicator suggests a region of ponded backwater in the channel in which streamlined forms were created through deposition, with the additional possibility of post-flood subsidence/lowering of the channel slope due to magma extrusion.  相似文献   

19.
Elevated shorelines and lake sediments surrounding Issyk Kul, the world's second largest mountain lake, record fluctuating lake levels during Quaternary times. Together with bathymetric and geochemical data, these markers document alternating phases of lake closure and external drainage. The uppermost level of lake sediments requires a former damming of the lake's western outlet through the Boam gorge. We test previous hypothesised ice or landslide dam failures by exploring possible links between late Quaternary lake levels and outbursts. We review and recompile the chronology of reported changes in lake site, and offer new ages of abandoned shorelines using 14C in bivalve and gastropod shells, and plant detritus, as well as sand lenses in delta and river sediments using Infrared Stimulated Luminescence. Our dates are consistent with elevated lake levels between ~45 ka and 22 ka. Cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al exposure ages of fan terraces containing erratic boulders (>3 m) downstream of the gorge constrain the timing of floods to 20.5–18.5 ka, postdating a highstand of Issyk Kul. A flow‐competence analysis gives a peak discharge of >104 m3 s–1 for entraining and transporting these boulders. Palaeoflood modelling, however, shows that naturally dammed lakes unconnected to Issyk Kul could have produced such high discharges upon sudden emptying. Hence, although our data are consistent with hypotheses of catastrophic outburst floods, average lake‐level changes of up to 90 mm yr–1 in the past 150 years were highly variable without any outbursts, so that linking lake‐level drops to catastrophic dam breaks remains ambiguous using sedimentary archives alone. This constraint may readily apply to other Quaternary lakes of that size elsewhere. Nonetheless, our reconstructed Pleistocene floods are among the largest reported worldwide, and motivate further research into the palaeoflood hydrology of Central Asia. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
陈龙生  陈棋福 《中国地震》1997,13(4):311-320
地震活动性中心Ｇｕｔｅｎｂｅｒｇ－Ｒｉｃｈｔｅｒ关系（ｌｏｇＮ＝ａ－ｂＭ）在确定地震发生率时起着重要作用，实际分析中存在的对Ｇ－Ｒ关系的偏离主要是由于地震目录的不完全性引起：即在低震级端因地震的监测能力有限，在高震级端因大震的稀少导致的统计涨落。  相似文献   

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