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1.
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2.
MAROS: a decision support system for optimizing monitoring plans   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
The Monitoring and Remediation Optimization System (MAROS), a decision-support software, was developed to assist in formulating cost-effective ground water long-term monitoring plans. MAROS optimizes an existing ground water monitoring program using both temporal and spatial data analyses to determine the general monitoring system category and the locations and frequency of sampling for future compliance monitoring at the site. The objective of the MAROS optimization is to minimize monitoring locations in the sampling network and reduce sampling frequency without significant loss of information, ensuring adequate future characterization of the contaminant plume. The interpretive trend analysis approach recommends the general monitoring system category for a site based on plume stability and site-specific hydrogeologic information. Plume stability is characterized using primary lines of evidence (i.e., Mann-Kendall analysis and linear regression analysis) based on concentration trends, and secondary lines of evidence based on modeling results and empirical data. The sampling optimization approach, consisting of a two-dimensional spatial sampling reduction method (Delaunay method) and a temporal sampling analysis method (Modified CES method), provides detailed sampling location and frequency results. The Delaunay method is designed to identify and eliminate redundant sampling locations without causing significant information loss in characterizing the plume. The Modified CES method determines the optimal sampling frequency for a sampling location based on the direction, magnitude, and uncertainty in its concentration trend. MAROS addresses a variety of ground water contaminants (fuels, solvents, and metals), allows import of various data formats, and is designed for continual modification of long-term monitoring plans as the plume or site conditions change over time.  相似文献   

3.
A theoretical framework is presented that allows direct identification of a single point-source pollution location and time in heterogeneous multidimensional systems under known flow field conditions. Based on the concept of the transfer function theory, it is shown that an observed pollution plume contains all the necessary information to predict the concentration at the unknown pollution source when a reversed flow field transport simulation is performed. This target concentration C0 is obtained from a quadratic integral of the observed pollution plume itself. Backwards simulation of the pollution plume leads to shrinkage of the C0-contour due to dispersion. When the C0-contour reduces to a singular point, i.e. becomes a concentration maximum, the position of the pollution source is identified and the backward simulation time indicates the time elapsed since the contaminant release. The theoretical basis of the method is first developed for the ideal case that the pollution plume is entirely known and is illustrated using a synthetic heterogeneous 2D example where all the hydro-dispersive parameters are known. The same example is then used to illustrate the procedure for a more realistic case, i.e. where only few observation points exist.  相似文献   

4.
The properties of linear spatial interpolators of single realizations and trend components of regionalized variables are examined in this work. In the case of the single realization estimator explicit and exact expressions for the weighting vector and the variances of estimator and estimation error were obtained from a closed-form expression for the inverse of the Lagrangian matrix. The properties of the trend estimator followed directly from the Gauss-Markoff theorem. It was shown that the single realization estimator can be decomposed into two mutually orthogonal random functions of the data, one of which is the trend estimator. The implementation of liear spatial estimation was illustrated with three different methods, i.e., full information maximum likelihood (FIML), restricted maximum likelihood (RML), and Rao's minimum norm invariant quadratic unbiased estimation (MINQUE) for the single realization case and via generalized least squares (GLS) for the trend. The case study involved large correlation length-scale in the covariance of specific yield producing a nested covariance structure that was nearly positive semidefinite. The sensitivity of model parameters, i.e., drift and variance components (local and structured) to the correlation length-scale, choice of covariance model (i.e., exponential and spherical), and estimation method was examined. the same type of sensitivity analysis was conducted for the spatial interpolators. It is interesting that for this case study, characterized by a large correlation length-scale of about 50 mi (80 km), both parameter estimates and linear spatial interpolators were rather insensitive to the choice of covariance model and estimation method within the range of credible values obtained for the correlation length-scale, i.e., 40–60 mi (64–96 km), with alternative estimates falling within ±5% of each other.  相似文献   

5.
Like tree rings, high‐resolution soil sampling of low‐permeability (low‐k) zones can be used to evaluate the style of source history at contaminated sites (i.e., historical pattern of concentration and composition vs. time since releases occurred at the interface with the low‐k zone). This is valuable for the development of conceptual site model (CSM) and can serve as an important line of evidence supporting monitored natural attenuation (MNA) as a long‐term remedy. Source histories were successfully reconstructed at two sites at Naval Air Station Jacksonville using a simple one‐dimensional (1D) model. The plume arrival time and historical composition were reconstructed from the time initial releases that were suspected to occur decades earlier. At the first site (Building 106), the source reconstructions showed relatively constant source concentrations, but significant attenuation over time in the downgradient plume in the transmissive zone, suggesting MNA may not be an appropriate remedy if source control is a requirement, but attenuation processes are clearly helping to maintain plume stability and reduce risk. At the second site (Building 780), source concentrations in the transmissive zone showed an approximately a one order of magnitude over time, but apparently less attenuation in the downgradient plume. The source reconstruction method appeared to reflect site remediation efforts (excavation, soil vapor extraction) implemented in the 1990s. Finally, a detailed analysis using molecular biological tools, carbon isotopes, and by‐products suggests that most degradation activity is associated with high‐k zones but not with low‐k zones at these source areas. Overall, the source reconstruction methodology provided insight into historical concentration trends not obtainable otherwise given the limited long‐term monitoring data.  相似文献   

6.
This paper aims to compare the performances of multivariate autoregressive (MAR) techniques and univariate autoregressive (AR) methods applied to regional scale rainfall-runoff modelling. We focus on the case study from the upper and middle reaches of the Odra River with its main tributaries in SW Poland. The rivers drain both the mountains (the Sudetes) and the lowland (Nizina Śląska). The region is exposed to extreme hydrologic and meteorological events, especially rain-induced and snow-melt floods. For the analysis, four hydrologic and meteorological variables are chosen, i.e., discharge (17 locations), precipitation (7 locations), thickness of snow cover (7 locations) and groundwater level (1 location). The time period is November 1971–December 1981 and the temporal resolution of the time series is of 1 day. Both MAR and AR models of the same orders are fitted to various subsets of the data and subsequently forecasts of discharge are derived. In order to evaluate the predictions the stepwise procedure is applied to make the validation independent of the specific sample path of the stochastic process. It is shown that the model forecasts peak discharges even 2–4 days in advance in the case of both rain-induced and snow-melt peak flows. Furthermore, the accuracy of discharge predictions increases if one analyses the combined data on discharge, precipitation, snow cover, and groundwater level instead of the pure discharge multivariate time series. MAR-based discharge forecasts based on multivariate data on discharges are more accurate than AR-based univariate predictions for a year with a flood, however, this relation is reverse in the case of the free-of-flooding year. In contrast, independently of the occurrence of floods within a year, MAR-based discharge forecasts based on discharges, precipitation, snow cover, and groundwater level are more precise than AR-based predictions.  相似文献   

7.
In this study, a stepwise cluster forecasting (SCF) framework is proposed for monthly streamflow prediction in Xiangxi River, China. The developed SCF method can capture discrete and nonlinear relationships between explanatory and response variables. Cluster trees are generated through the SCF method to reflect complex relationships between independent (i.e. explanatory) and dependent (i.e. response) variables in the hydrologic system without determining specific linear/nonlinear functions. The developed SCF method is applied for monthly streamflow prediction in Xiangxi River based on the local meteorological records as well as some climate index. Comparison among SCF, multiple linear regression, generalized regression neural network, and least square support vector machine methods would be conducted. The results indicate that the SCF method would produce good predictions in both training and testing periods. Besides, the inherent probabilistic characteristics of the SCF predictions are further analyzed. The results obtained by SCF can presented as intervals, formulated by the minimum and maximum predictions as well as the 5 and 95 % percentile values of the predictions, which can reflect the variations in streamflow forecasts. Therefore, the developed SCF method can be applied for monthly streamflow prediction in various watersheds with complicated hydrologic processes.  相似文献   

8.
Matrix diffusion can attenuate the rate of plume migration in fractured bedrock relative to the rate of ground water flow for both conservative and nonconservative solutes of interest. In a system of parallel, equally spaced constant aperture fractures subject to steady-state ground water flow and an infinite source width, the degree of plume attenuation increases with time and travel distance, eventually reaching an asymptotic level. The asymptotic degree of plume attenuation in the absence of degradation can be predicted by a plume attenuation factor, beta, which is readily estimated as R' (phi(m)/phi(f)), where R' is the retardation factor in the matrix, phi(m) is the matrix porosity, and phi(f) is the fracture porosity. This dual-porosity relationship can also be thought of as the ratio of primary to secondary porosity. Beta represents the rate of ground water flow in fractures relative to the rate of plume advance. For the conditions examined in this study, beta increases with greater matrix porosity, greater matrix fraction organic carbon, larger fracture spacing, and smaller fracture aperture. These concepts are illustrated using a case study where dense nonaqueous phase liquid in fractured sandstone produced a dissolved-phase trichloroethylene (TCE) plume approximately 300 m in length. Transport parameters such as matrix porosity, fracture porosity, hydraulic gradient, and the matrix retardation factor were characterized at the site through field investigations. In the fractured sandstone bedrock examined in this study, the asymptotic plume attenuation factors (beta values) for conservative and nonconservative solutes (i.e., chloride and TCE) were predicted to be approximately 800 and 12,210, respectively. Quantitative analyses demonstrate that a porous media (single-porosity) solute transport model is not appropriate for simulating contaminant transport in fractured sandstone where matrix diffusion occurs. Rather, simulations need to be conducted with either a discrete fracture model that explicitly incorporates matrix diffusion, or a dual-continuum model that accounts for mass transfer between mobile and immobile zones. Simulations also demonstrate that back diffusion from the matrix to fractures will likely be the time-limiting factor in reaching ground water cleanup goals in some fractured bedrock environments.  相似文献   

9.
A method is presented to design monitoring networks for detecting groundwater pollution at industrial sites. The goal is to detect the pollution at some distance from the site’s boundary so that it can be cleaned up or hydrologically contained before contaminating groundwater outside the site. It is assumed that pollution may occur anywhere on the site, that transport is by advection only and that no retardation and chemical reactions take place. However, the approach can be easily extended to include designated (and uncertain) source areas, dispersion and reactive transport. The method starts from the premise that it is impossible to detect 100% of all the contaminant plumes with reasonable costs and therefore seeks a balance between the risk of pollution and network density. The design approach takes account of uncertainty in the flow field by simulating realisations of conductivity, groundwater head and associated flow fields, using geostatistical simulation and a groundwater flow model. The realisations are conditioned to conductivity and head observations that may already be present on the site. The result is an ensemble of flow fields that is further analysed using a particle track program. From this the probability of missing a contaminant plume originating anywhere on the terrain can be estimated for a given network. From this probability follows the risk, i.e. the expected costs of an undetected pollution. The total costs of the monitoring strategy are calculated by adding the risk of pollution to the costs of installing and maintaining the monitoring wells and the routinely performed chemical analyses. By repeating this procedure for networks of varying well numbers, the best network is chosen as the one that minimises total cost. The method is illustrated with a simulated example showing the added worth of exploratory wells for characterising hydraulic conductivity of a site.  相似文献   

10.
Motivated by the observed (successful and unsuccessful) performance of numerous structures on top of, or immediately next to a normal fault that ruptured during the Kocaeli 1999 earthquake, this paper: (i) develops a two-step finite element methodology to study the propagation of a fault rupture through soil and its interplay with the foundation–structure system, denoted hereafter “Fault Rupture–Soil– Foundation–Structure Interaction” (FR–SFSI), (ii) provides validation of the developed methodology through successful Class “A” predictions of centrifuge model tests, and (iii) applies the centrifuge-validated methodology to study one-by-one the Kocaeli case histories of the first paper (Part I). It is shown that the presence of a structure on top of an outcropping fault may have a significant influence on the rupture path: with heavy structures founded on continuous and rigid foundations, the fault rupture diverts substantially and may avoid rupturing underneath the structure. The latter undergoes rigid body rotation, with its foundation sometimes loosing contact with the bearing soil, but in most cases retaining its structural integrity. In stark contrast, buildings on isolated footings and, perhaps surprisingly, piles exert a smaller diversion of the rupture which is thus likely to outcrop between the footings or pile caps; the latter may thus undergo devastating differential displacements. It is shown that structures in the vicinity of faults can be designed to survive significant dislocations. The “secret” of successful performance lies on the continuity, stiffness, and rigidity of the foundation.  相似文献   

11.
Abstract

The uncertainties arising from the problem of identifying a representative model structure and model parameters in a conceptual rainfall-runoff model were investigated. A conceptual model, the HBV model, was applied to the mountainous Brugga basin (39.9 km”) in the Black Forest, southwestern Germany. In a first step, a Monte Carlo procedure with randomly generated parameter sets was used for calibration. For a ten-year calibration period, different parameter sets resulted in an equally good correspondence between observed and simulated runoff. A few parameters were well defined (i.e. best parameter values were within small ranges), but for most parameters good simulations were found with values varying over wide ranges. In a second step, model variants with different numbers of elevation and landuse zones and various runoff generation conceptualizations were tested. In some cases, representation of more spatial variability gave better simulations in terms of discharge. However, good results could be obtained with different and even unrealistic concepts. The computation of design floods and low flow predictions illustrated that the parameter uncertainty and the uncertainty of identifying a unique best model variant have implications for model predictions. The flow predictions varied considerably. The peak discharge of a flood with a probability of 0.01 year?1, for instance, varied from 40 to almost 60 mm day?1. It was concluded that model predictions, particularly in applied studies, should be given as ranges rather than as single values.  相似文献   

12.
Small (1–3 mm), hollow spherules of hexahydrite have been collected falling out of the magmatic gas plume downwind of Kīlauea’s summit vent. The spherules were observed on eight separate occasions during 2009–2010 when a lake of actively spattering lava was present ~150–200 m below the rim of the vent. The shells of the spherules have a fine bubbly foam structure less than 0.1 mm thick, composed almost entirely of hexahydrite [MgSO4·6H2O] Small microspherules of lava (<5 μm across) along with mineral and rock fragments from the magmatic plume adhered to the outside of the hexahydrite spherules. Phase relationships and the particulate matter in the magmatic plume indicate that the spherules originated as a bubbly solution injected into and mixed with the magmatic plume. The most likely mechanism for production of hexahydrite spherules is boiling of MgSO4-saturated meteoric water in the walls of the conduit above the surface of the lava lake. Solfataric sulfates may thus be recycled and reinjected into the plume, creating particulates of sulfate minerals that can be distributed far from their original source.  相似文献   

13.
 The Puu Oo eruption has been remarkable in the historical record of Kilauea Volcano for its duration (over 13 years), volume (>1 km3) and compositional variation (5.7–10 wt.% MgO). During the summer of 1986, the main vent for lava production moved 3 km down the east rift zone and the eruption style changed from episodic geyser-like fountaining at Puu Oo to virtually continuous, relatively quiescent effusion at the Kupaianaha vent. This paper examines this next chapter in the Puu Oo eruption, episodes 48 and 49, and presents new ICP-MS trace element and Pb-, Sr-, and Nd-isotope data for the entire eruption (1983–1994). Nearly aphyric to weakly olivine-phyric lavas were erupted during episodes 48 and 49. The variation in MgO content of Kupaianaha lavas erupted before 1990 correlates with changes in tilt at the summit of Kilauea, both of which probably were controlled by variations in Kilauea's magma supply rate. These lavas contain euhedral olivines which generally are in equilibrium with whole-rock compositions, although some of the more mafic lavas which erupted during 1990, a period of frequent pauses in the eruption, accumulated 2–4 vol.% olivine. The highest forsterite content of olivines (∼85%) in Kupaianaha lavas indicates that the parental magmas for these lavas had MgO contents of ∼10 wt.%, which equals the highest observed value for lavas during this eruption. The composition of the Puu Oo lavas has progressively changed during the eruption. Since early 1985 (episode 30), when mixing between an evolved rift zone magma and a more mafic summit reservoir-derived magma ended, the normalized (to 10 wt.% MgO) abundances of highly incompatible elements and CaO have systematically decreased with time, whereas ratios of these trace elements and Pb, Sr, and Nd isotopes, and the abundances of Y and Yb, have remained relatively unchanged. These results indicate that the Hawaiian plume source for Puu Oo magmas must be relatively homogeneous on a scale of 10–20 km3 (assuming 5–10% partial melting), and that localized melting within the plume has apparently progressively depleted its incompatible elements and clinopyroxene component as the eruption continued. The rate of variation of highly incompatible elements in Puu Oo lavas is much greater than that observed for Kilauea historical summit lavas (e.g., Ba/Y 0.09 a–1 vs ∼0.03 a–1). This rapid change indicates that Puu Oo magmas did not mix thoroughly with magma in the summit reservoir. Thus, except for variable amounts of olivine fractionation, the geochemical variation in these lavas is predominantly controlled by mantle processes. Received: 8 March 1996 / Accepted: 30 April 1996  相似文献   

14.
Despite that discrete flow features (DFFs, e.g. fractures and faults) are common features in the subsurface, few studies have explored the influence of DFFs on solute plumes in otherwise permeable rocks (e.g. sandstone, limestone), compared to low-permeability rock settings (e.g. granite and basalt). DFFs can provide preferential flow pathways (i.e. ‘preferential flow features’; PFFs), or can act to impede flow (i.e. ‘barrier flow features’; BFFs). This research uses a simple analytical expression and numerical modelling to explore how a single DFF influences the steady-state distributions of solute plumes in permeable aquifers. The analysis quantifies the displacement and widening (or narrowing) of a steady-state solute plume as it crosses a DFF in idealised, 1 × 1 m moderately permeable rock aquifers. Previous research is extended by accounting for DFFs as 2D flow features, and including BFF situations. A range of matrix-DFF permeability ratios (0.01 to 100) and DFF apertures (0.25 mm to 2 cm), typical of sedimentary aquifers containing medium-to-large fractures, are considered. The results indicate that for the conceptual models considered here, PFFs typically have a more significant influence on plume distributions than BFFs, and the impact of DFFs on solute plumes generally increases with increasing aperture. For example, displacement of peak solute concentration caused by DFFs exceeds 20 cm in some PFF cases, compared to a maximum of 0.64 cm in BFF cases. PFFs widen plumes up to 9.7 times, compared to a maximum plume widening of 2.0 times in BFF cases. Plumes crossing a PFF are less symmetrical, and peak solute concentrations beneath PFFs are up to two orders of magnitude lower than plumes in BFF cases. This study extends current knowledge of the attenuating influence of DFFs in otherwise permeable rocks on solute plume characteristics, through evaluation of 2D flow effects in DFFs for a variety of DFF apertures, and by considering BFF situations.  相似文献   

15.
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16.
Huijie Xue  Yi Du 《Ocean Dynamics》2010,60(2):341-357
A high-resolution coastal ocean model was developed to simulate the temporal/spatial variability of the Kennebec–Androscoggin (K–A) river plume and the circulation in Casco Bay. The model results agree favorably with the moored and shipboard observations of velocity, temperature, and salinity. The surface salinity gradient was used to distinguish the plume from the ambient coastal water. The calculated plume thickness suggests that the K–A plume is surface trapped. Its horizontal scales correlate well with Q 0.25, where Q is the volume discharge of the rivers. Directional spreading is affected by the wind with the upwelling favorable wind transporting the plume water offshore. Both the wind and the tide also enhance mixing in the plume. The inclusion of a wetting-and-drying (WAD) scheme appears to enhance the mixing and entrainment processes near the estuary. The plume becomes thicker near the mouth of the estuary, the outflow velocity of the plume is weaker, and the radius of the river plume shrinks. The flow field in the model run with the WAD is noisier, not only in shallow areas of Casco Bay but also in the plume and even on the shelf. We speculate that the WAD processes can affect much larger areas than the intertidal zones, especially via a river plume that feeds into a coastal current.  相似文献   

17.
A method, based on the Hilbert–Huang spectral analysis, has been proposed by the authors to identify linear structures in which normal modes exist (i.e., real eigenvalues and eigenvectors). Frequently, all the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of linear structures are complex. In this paper, the method is extended further to identify general linear structures with complex modes using the free vibration response data polluted by noise. Measured response signals are first decomposed into modal responses using the method of Empirical Mode Decomposition with intermittency criteria. Each modal response contains the contribution of a complex conjugate pair of modes with a unique frequency and a damping ratio. Then, each modal response is decomposed in the frequency–time domain to yield instantaneous phase angle and amplitude using the Hilbert transform. Based on a single measurement of the impulse response time history at one appropriate location, the complex eigenvalues of the linear structure can be identified using a simple analysis procedure. When the response time histories are measured at all locations, the proposed methodology is capable of identifying the complex mode shapes as well as the mass, damping and stiffness matrices of the structure. The effectiveness and accuracy of the method presented are illustrated through numerical simulations. It is demonstrated that dynamic characteristics of linear structures with complex modes can be identified effectively using the proposed method. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Transport of sorbing solutes in 2D steady and heterogeneous flow fields is modeled using a particle tracking random walk technique. The solute is injected as an instantaneous pulse over a finite area. Cases of linear and Freundlich sorption isotherms are considered. Local pore velocity and mechanical dispersion are used to describe the solute transport mechanisms at the local scale. This paper addresses the impact of the degree of heterogeneity and correlation lengths of the log-hydraulic conductivity field as well as negative correlation between the log-hydraulic conductivity field and the log-sorption affinity field on the behavior of the plume of a sorbing chemical. Behavior of the plume is quantified in terms of longitudinal spatial moments: center-of-mass displacement, variance, 95% range, and skewness. The range appears to be a better measure of the spread in the plumes with Freundlich sorption because of plume asymmetry. It has been found that the range varied linearly with the travelled distance, regardless of the sorption isotherm. This linear relationship is important for extrapolation of results to predict behavior beyond simulated times and distances. It was observed that the flow domain heterogeneity slightly enhanced the spreading of nonlinearly sorbing solutes in comparison to that which occurred for the homogeneous flow domain, whereas the spreading enhancement in the case of linear sorption was much more pronounced. In the case of Freundlich sorption, this enhancement led to further deceleration of the solute plume movement as a result of increased retardation coefficients produced by smaller concentrations. It was also observed that, except for plumes with linear sorption, correlation between the hydraulic conductivity and the sorption affinity fields had minimal effect on the spatial moments of solute plumes with nonlinear sorption.  相似文献   

19.
This work presents analytical models which are able to predict contours of concentrations and isotope ratios of organic pollutants in homogeneous aquifers. Four analytical solutions of the advective–dispersive transport equation for reactive transport from the literature differing in assumptions regarding biodegradation kinetics were used. Stable isotope ratios are computed after modelling the individual reactive transport of isotopic species in the aquifer, which respond differently to fractionation by biodegradation or sorption. The main finding of this study is that the isotope ratios in the plumes are very sensitive to the assumptions underlying the biodegradation kinetics in the models. When biodegradation occurs throughout the core of the plume as first-order reaction, the transversal gradients in isotope ratios are smooth. When biodegradation occurs in a bi-molecular reaction with an electron acceptor (modelled by double-Monod kinetics), steep transversal isotope gradients are predicted. When the reaction rates approach instantaneous reaction along the plume fringes, isotope shifts in the core of the plume disappear. A model incorporating plume and fringe degradation produces the most plausible predictions of isotope ratios in this study. It is shown furthermore that isotope fractionation by sorption causes an even different pattern of isotope ratios, with positive shifts restricted to near the forerunning front of an expanding plume. The models developed in this work can serve for the validation of numerical models and may be incorporated in natural attenuation support systems such as e.g. BIOSCREEN.  相似文献   

20.
Hydraulic conductivity distribution and plume initial source condition are two important factors affecting solute transport in heterogeneous media. Since hydraulic conductivity can only be measured at limited locations in a field, its spatial distribution in a complex heterogeneous medium is generally uncertain. In many groundwater contamination sites, transport initial conditions are generally unknown, as plume distributions are available only after the contaminations occurred. In this study, a data assimilation method is developed for calibrating a hydraulic conductivity field and improving solute transport prediction with unknown initial solute source condition. Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is used to update the model parameter (i.e., hydraulic conductivity) and state variables (hydraulic head and solute concentration), when data are available. Two-dimensional numerical experiments are designed to assess the performance of the EnKF method on data assimilation for solute transport prediction. The study results indicate that the EnKF method can significantly improve the estimation of the hydraulic conductivity distribution and solute transport prediction by assimilating hydraulic head measurements with a known solute initial condition. When solute source is unknown, solute prediction by assimilating continuous measurements of solute concentration at a few points in the plume well captures the plume evolution downstream of the measurement points.  相似文献   

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