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二十世纪九十年代区域气候模拟研究进展 总被引：44，自引：9，他引：35
由于区域气候异常与社会经济及人类发展有紧密联系,因而长期以来受到各国气候学家的极大重视,与此密切相关的对区域气候的模拟研究也有了较大发展。进入２０世纪９０年代以来,区域气候模拟研究的进展更加明显。文中将着重分析全球气候模式对区域气候模拟的可靠性与不确定性;国内外对区域气候的模拟研究进展;以及对区域气候变化模拟研究的展望。 相似文献
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与以往的区域气候模式相比,对流允许区域气候模式不再依赖于对流参数化方案,其精细的分辨率可以显式表示深对流过程,在夏季对流降水的日变化和极端降水事件模拟等方面具有明显增值能力,是区域气候模拟的发展方向。对现有的对流允许尺度区域气候模拟研究进行了较为详细的回顾和介绍,简述了对流允许尺度区域气候模式中比较重要的物理过程及外部驱动条件的影响,总结了以往对流允许尺度区域气候模拟的研究成果以及当下所面临的挑战和对未来的展望,以期对中国及东亚区域对流允许区域气候模拟的研究提供有益参考。诸多研究表明,对流允许区域气候模拟作为一种有前景的气候模式,可提供更加可靠的区域尺度的气候信息。 相似文献
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利用有限区域数值模式进行气候模拟研究的综合介绍 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用有限区域数值模式进行气候模拟是近年来发展的一种研究区域气候的新方法。本文综合介绍了用区域模式进行气候模拟的必要性、可靠性及其研究现状和主要进展，并指出区域气候模拟存在的一些问题及在我国发展区域气候模式的迫切性。 相似文献
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区域气候模拟研究及其应用进展 总被引：10，自引：3，他引：7
区域气候模拟研究在过去十几年里取得了显著的进步。经过广泛的发展和不断的检验,区域气候模式现在已经成为气候研究和业务预报的重要工具。目前已经发表了很多令人鼓舞的结果,其中包括过去极端气候事件的模拟,当前气候发展演变和未来气候变化的预测,特别是对月和季节尺度气候的模拟与预测。通过对高分辨率和动力连续的区域气候模式结果的分析,人们对于周-季节时间尺度的各种物理过程,包括陆面和水文过程、边界层、云和降水、云-辐射相互作用的认识也在不断的深入。然而,区域气候是多尺度扰动(如中尺度、天气尺度、行星尺度扰动)和多圈层系统(如大气圈、生物圈、水圈、冰雪圈、陆面)相互作用的结果,同时物理过程本身具有不确定性,人们对一些复杂的物理过程,特别是土壤湿度作用以及云-气候反馈过程也缺乏深刻的理解,因此该领域的研究还面临着很多挑战。作者重点总结并评述了区域气候模式对现在和未来区域气候模拟、极端天气和气候事件模拟、物理过程研究、短期气候预测几方面应用的研究进展,最后讨论了区域气候模式发展在上述各方面,特别是周-次季节时间尺度区域天气和气候的模拟与预测所面临的挑战和应用前景。 相似文献
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土壤湿度影响中国夏季气候的数值试验 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
利用"全球土壤湿度计划第2阶段"提供的土壤湿度资料强迫区域气候模式RegCM3,通过数值试验讨论了土壤湿度对东亚夏季气候模拟效果的影响。结果表明,合理考虑土壤湿度的作用,能够提高区域气候模式对中国夏季降水和2 m气温的空间分布型及逐日变化的模拟效果;模拟结果与观测的相关分析显示,降水和2 m气温的年际变化都得到了有效改进,这种改进在气温上尤为明显。不过上述改进具有区域依赖性。数值试验结果表明,气温对土壤湿度的敏感性强于降水,这也从一个侧面说明提高降水模拟效果的难度。总体而言,合理的土壤湿度能够提高区域气候模式对中国夏季气候的模拟能力。因此,合理描述土壤湿度的变化,是提高中国夏季气候预报技巧的潜在途径之一。 相似文献
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P-σ坐标系区域气候模式与GCM的嵌套试验 总被引：4，自引：4，他引：4
将P-σ坐标系区域气候模式与大气环流模式（GCM）单向嵌套，对我国1998年夏季长江流域严重洪涝进行模拟试验，并与GCM的模拟结果进行了比较。试验表明，嵌套的区域气候模式对降水场的模拟结果较GCM的结果有明显的改进，这是由于P-σ坐标系区域气候模式能够更真实地描述地形的动力和热力作用，因而能更准确地模拟青藏高原及其邻近地区的气压系统，在一定程度上弥补了低分辨率的GCM模拟在高原地区的不足，文中指出，与GCM嵌套的区域气候模式比GCM能够更有效地模拟区域气候的变化，尤其是对区域气候性特征比较明显的地区。 相似文献
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通过构建C网格的p-σ九层区域气候模式的差分方案,将C型跳点网格引入p-σ九层区域气候模式.通过对东亚地区1月和7月气候平均场及2003年夏季降水进行数值模拟,检验了C型跳点网格对p-σ九层区域气候模式模拟性能的影响.数值试验结果表明,C型跳点网格的p-σ九层区域气候模式对东亚区域气候的模拟能力有一定的提高,其中包括对流层低层风场和气温场的模拟都有了一定程度的改进,对风场的改进尤为明显.由于风场得到了改进,进而对降水的模拟能力也有所提高,为区域气候模式的进一步发展奠定了基础. 相似文献
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基于区域气候模式未来气候变化研究综述 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《高原气象》2018,(5)
随着全球气候变化愈加剧烈,区域气候的差异化特征越来越明显,单单利用全球气候模式对区域气候进行研究已经不能满足时空尺度的要求。由于区域气候模式具有更高的空间分辨率等优势,使用区域气候模式能够有效解决这一问题,目前区域气候模式已在全球范围内得到广泛应用。本文简述了区域气候模式发展历程、最新研究进展以及全球主流的动力降尺度区域模式,归纳了气候情景发展;分别从气温和降水两方面着重总结了区域气候模式在全球不同区域不同情景应用情况,分析了未来全球不同区域气候变化趋势,尽管不同研究者所使用模式存在差异,对未来降水预估不尽相同,区域性比较明显,但几乎所有研究一致认为未来全球仍将经历一个持续增暖过程。文章最后对区域气候模式模拟过程中存在的问题进行了概述并对未来区域气候模式发展方向进行了展望,给出中国区域气候模式未来发展方向。 相似文献
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Lee Hannah Camila I. Donatti Celia A. Harvey Eric Alfaro Daniel Andres Rodriguez Claudia Bouroncle Edwin Castellanos Freddy Diaz Emily Fung Hugo G. Hidalgo Pablo Imbach Peter Läderach Jason P. Landrum Ana Lucía Solano 《Climatic change》2017,141(1):29-45
Climate change will have serious repercussions for agriculture, ecosystems, and farmer livelihoods in Central America. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on agriculture and ecosystem services for their livelihoods. There is an urgent need to develop national and local adaptation responses to reduce these impacts, yet evidence from historical climate change is fragmentary. Modeling efforts help bridge this gap. Here, we review the past decade of research on agricultural and ecological climate change impact models for Central America. The results of this review provide insights into the expected impacts of climate change and suggest policy actions that can help minimize these impacts. Modeling indicates future climate-driven changes, often declines, in suitability for Central American crops. Declines in suitability for coffee, a central crop in the regional economy, are noteworthy. Ecosystem models suggest that climate-driven changes are likely at low- and high-elevation montane forest transitions. Modeling of vulnerability suggests that smallholders in many parts of the region have one or more vulnerability factors that put them at risk. Initial adaptation policies can be guided by these existing modeling results. At the same time, improved modeling is being developed that will allow policy action specifically targeted to vulnerable groups, crops, and locations. We suggest that more robust modeling of ecological responses to climate change, improved representation of the region in climate models, and simulation of climate influences on crop yields and diseases (especially coffee leaf rust) are key priorities for future research. 相似文献
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陆面特征非均一作用参数化及其对区域气候影响的数值模拟试验 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
本文首先改进了陆地下垫面特征非均一性的次网格尺度参数化方法，然后利用三维地气耦合的区域气候模式，设计一系列值试验，研究了下垫面特征改变对区域气候环境变化的影响，主要分析了陆地表面特征变化对我国苏南附近地区夏季温度化的影响，结果表明采用地下垫面特征非均一作用的次网格尺度参数化方法对于改进数值模拟结果的质量有一定效果。 相似文献
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L. C. Sloan 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2006,86(1-4):271-279
Summary The methods of reconstructing ancient climate information from the rock record are summarized, and the climate forcing factors
that have been active at global and regional scales through Earth history are reviewed. In this context, the challenges and
approaches to modeling past climates by using a regional climate model are discussed. A significant challenge to such modeling
efforts arises if the time period of interest occurred prior to the past ∼3–5 million years, at which point land–sea distributions
and topography markedly different from present must be specified at the spatial resolution required by regional climate models.
Creating these boundary conditions requires a high degree of geologic knowledge, and also depends greatly upon the global
climate model driving conditions. Despite this and other challenges, regional climate models represent an important and unique
tool for paleoclimate investigations. Application of regional climate models to paleoclimate studies may provide another way
to assess the overall performance of regional climate models. 相似文献
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ADVANCES IN REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING SINCE 1990 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
Due to the close relationship between regional climate anomalies and social-economy andsociety development,climatologists worldwide paid great attention to the regional climateanomalies over a long period of time and the corresponding investigation of regional climatemodeling has made great progresses.Since 1990 the regional climate simulations have made a moresubstantial achievement.This paper will focus on the reliability and uncertainties of regionalclimate modeling by global climate models,the advances on regional climate modeling in the worldand the outlook of regional climate modeling. 相似文献
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Zhen-Shan Lin 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2000,73(1-2):47-54
Summary In this paper, a method of phase space in modeling the climatological series is put forward on the correlation dimension,
the theory of phase space and the direct retrieval technique. Then time series of monthly mean temperature are used to build
dynamic models of regional climate in phase space in which some dynamic characteristics can be discovered. The results illustrate
that the methodology holds promise for a wide variety of applications. Furthermore, the evolution characteristic and the interior
interaction mechanism of the regional climate of southern China are also discussed.
Received March 29, 1999/Revised November 2, 1999 相似文献
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中国地区极端事件预估研究 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
高学杰 《气候变化研究进展》2007,3(3):162-166
简要介绍了极端气候事件预估的基本方法,概述了东亚和中国地区关于气候和极端气候事件预估研究的进展。针对极端事件变化预估研究中的重要问题,如高分辨率、长时间尺度的区域气候变化模拟和预估,高时空分辨率的网格化观测资料,除温室效应外的土地利用和气溶胶的作用,使用合理方法进行多模式结果的集合,以及统计降尺度方法的应用等,进行了讨论。 相似文献
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Laurent Menut Om P. Tripathi Augustin Colette Robert Vautard Emmanouil Flaounas Bertrand Bessagnet 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(9-10):2515-2533
In order to evaluate the future potential benefits of emission regulation on regional air quality, while taking into account the effects of climate change, off-line air quality projection simulations are driven using weather forcing taken from regional climate models. These regional models are themselves driven by simulations carried out using global climate models (GCM) and economical scenarios. Uncertainties and biases in climate models introduce an additional “climate modeling” source of uncertainty that is to be added to all other types of uncertainties in air quality modeling for policy evaluation. In this article we evaluate the changes in air quality-related weather variables induced by replacing reanalyses-forced by GCM-forced regional climate simulations. As an example we use GCM simulations carried out in the framework of the ERA-interim programme and of the CMIP5 project using the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace climate model (IPSLcm), driving regional simulations performed in the framework of the EURO-CORDEX programme. In summer, we found compensating deficiencies acting on photochemistry: an overestimation by GCM-driven weather due to a positive bias in short-wave radiation, a negative bias in wind speed, too many stagnant episodes, and a negative temperature bias. In winter, air quality is mostly driven by dispersion, and we could not identify significant differences in either wind or planetary boundary layer height statistics between GCM-driven and reanalyses-driven regional simulations. However, precipitation appears largely overestimated in GCM-driven simulations, which could significantly affect the simulation of aerosol concentrations. The identification of these biases will help interpreting results of future air quality simulations using these data. Despite these, we conclude that the identified differences should not lead to major difficulties in using GCM-driven regional climate simulations for air quality projections. 相似文献
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Sevinc Ozkul 《Climatic change》2009,97(1-2):253-283
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) discloses that the global climate system is undoubtedly warming. Observations have shown that many natural systems, including hydrologic systems and water resources, are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases. Eventually, these effects will have to be considered in water resources planning and management. Accordingly, need is indicated to evaluate the impact of expected climate change on hydrology and water resources at regional and local levels. The presented paper summarizes the results of the sub-project studies under the United Nations Development Program-Global Environment Facility (UNDP-GEF) Project. The studies cover the generation of climate change scenarios, modeling of basin hydrology, and testing the sensitivity of runoff to changes in precipitation and temperature. Simulation results of the water budget model have shown that nearly 20% of the surface waters in the studied basins will be reduced by the year of 2030. By the years 2050 and 2100, this percentage will increase up to 35% and more than 50%, respectively. The decreasing surface water potential of the basins will cause serious water stress problems among water users, mainly being agricultural, domestic and industrial water users. 相似文献
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Francisco Estrada Víctor M. Guerrero Carlos Gay-García Benjamín Martínez-López 《Climatic change》2013,120(1-2):263-276
The urge for higher resolution climate change scenarios has been widely recognized, particularly for conducting impact assessment studies. Statistical downscaling methods have shown to be very convenient for this task, mainly because of their lower computational requirements in comparison with nested limited-area regional models or very high resolution Atmosphere–ocean General Circulation Models. Nevertheless, although some of the limitations of statistical downscaling methods are widely known and have been discussed in the literature, in this paper it is argued that the current approach for statistical downscaling does not guard against misspecified statistical models and that the occurrence of spurious results is likely if the assumptions of the underlying probabilistic model are not satisfied. In this case, the physics included in climate change scenarios obtained by general circulation models, could be replaced by spatial patterns and magnitudes produced by statistically inadequate models. Illustrative examples are provided for monthly temperature for a region encompassing Mexico and part of the United States. It is found that the assumptions of the probabilistic models do not hold for about 70 % of the gridpoints, parameter instability and temporal dependence being the most common problems. As our examples reveal, automated statistical downscaling “black-box” models are to be considered as highly prone to produce misleading results. It is shown that the Probabilistic Reduction approach can be incorporated as a complete and internally consistent framework for securing the statistical adequacy of the downscaling models and for guiding the respecification process, in a way that prevents the lack of empirical validity that affects current methods. 相似文献