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1.
Ambient respirable particles (PM10; aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm) collected in a tropical urban environment (Delhi, India) during December 2008-November 2009
were characterized with respect to 16 US EPA priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and 8 major and trace metals
(Fe, Mn, Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn and Cr). Concentrations of Σ16PAHs (annual mean: 74.7 ± 50.7 ng m−3, range 22.1–258.4 ng m−3) and most metallic species were at least an order of magnitude greater than values reported from similar locations worldwide.
Seasonal variations in Σ16PAHs were significant (p < 0.001) with highest levels in winter while crustal and anthropogenic metals showed significant but mutually opposite seasonal
dependence. Statistically significant associations were observed between chemical species and various meteorological parameters.
The PAH profile was dominated by combustion-derived large-ring species (~85%) that were essentially local in origin. Principal
component analysis–multiple linear regression (PCA-MLR) apportioned four sources: crustal dust (73%), vehicular emission (21%),
coal combustion (4%) and industrial emission (2%) that was further validated by hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA). Temporal
trend analysis showed that crustal sources were predominant in summer (p < 0.05) while the remaining sources were most active in winter. Summertime intrusions of Saharan dust were identified with
the help of aerosol maps and air parcel backward trajectories. Inhalation cancer risk assessment showed that up to 3,907 excess
cancer cases (357 for PAHs, 122 for Cd, 2040 for Cr (VI) and 1387 for Ni) are likely in Delhi considering lifetime inhalation
exposure to these chemicals at their current concentrations. 相似文献
2.
Man-Ting Cheng Wei-Chun Chou Chia-Pin Chio Shih-Chieh Hsu Yi-Ru Su Pei-Hsuan Kuo Ben-Jei Tsuang Shuen-Hsin Lin Charles C.-K. Chou 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2008,61(2):155-173
A study has been carried out on water soluble ions, trace elements, as well as PM2.5 and PM2.5–10 elemental and organic carbon samples collected daily from Central Taiwan over a one year period in 2005. A source apportionment
study was performed, employing a Gaussian trajectory transfer coefficient model (GTx) to the results from 141 sets of PM2.5 and PM2.5–10 samples. Two different types of PM10 episodes, local pollution (LOP) and Asian dust storm (ADS) were observed in this study. The results revealed that relative
high concentrations of secondary aerosols (NO3−, SO42− and NH4+) and the elements Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb and As were observed in PM2.5 during LOP periods. However, sea salt species (Na+ and Cl−) and crustal elements (e.g., Al, Fe, Mg, K, Ca and Ti) of PM2.5–10 showed a sharp increase during ADS periods. Anthropogenic source metals, Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb and As, as well as coarse nitrate
also increased with ADS episodes. Moreover, reconstruction of aerosol compositions revealed that soil of PM2.5–10 elevated approximately 12–14% in ADS periods than LOP and Clear periods. A significantly high ratio of non-sea salt sulfate
to elemental carbon (NSS-SO42−/EC) of PM2.5–10 during ADS periods was associated with higher concentrations of non-sea-salt sulfates from the industrial regions of China.
Source apportionment analysis showed that 39% of PM10, 25% of PM2.5, 50% of PM2.5–10, 42% of sulfate and 30% of nitrate were attributable to the long range transport during ADS periods, respectively. 相似文献
3.
Rajesh Bajpai D. K. Upreti S. K. Dwivedi S. Nayaka 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2009,63(3):235-246
Three different growth forms of lichens belonging to six species; Phaeophyscia hispidula, Parmotrema praesorediosum (foliose); Caloplaca subsoluta, Diploschistes candidissmus (crustose) and Peltula euploca, Phylliscum indicum (squamulose) were studied comparatively for the biomonitoring of Al, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni and Zn in Mandav city in central
India. Based on the anthropogenic activities three sites were selected for lichen collection. To identify the sources of heavy
metal pollution, their concentration was analyzed in thallus as well as in their respective substrates. The thallus of studied
lichens showed higher concentration of metals such as Cd, Cr, Ni and Zn, while most of the metals were absent or present in
negligible amount in substrates (Fe, Al, Cu), which proves that the accumulated metals were air borne. The foliose lichens
(P. hispidula and P. praesorediosum) found highly significant in metal accumulation at each sites followed by crustose and squamulose forms. Lichen samples collected
from site 2, adjacent to road side accumulated maximum quantities of Zn, Ni, Cd and Cr whereas the city centre (Site 1) had
maximum concentrations of Fe, Cu and Al. The site 3 situated away from the city had lowest amount of all the metals. The analysis
of variance and LSD indicated that the metal concentrations among lichen species as well as between substratum is significant
at p < 0.05% and P < 0.01% level respectively. 相似文献
4.
Both aerosol and rainwater samples were collected and analyzed for ionic species at a coastal site in Southeast Asia over
a period of 9 months (January–September 2006) covering different monsoons. In general, the occurrence and distribution of
ionic species showed a distinct seasonal variation in response to changes in air mass origins. Real-time physical characterization
of aerosol particles during rain events showed changes in particle number distributions which were used to assess particle
removal processes associated with precipitation, or scavenging. The mean scavenging coefficients for particles in the range
10–500 nm and 500–10 μm were 7.0 × 10−5 ± 2.8 × 10−5 s−1 and 1.9 × 10−4 ± 1.6 × 10−5 s−1, respectively. A critical analysis of the scavenging coefficients obtained from this study suggested that the wet removal
of aerosol particles was greatly influenced by rain intensity, and was particle size-dependent as well. The scavenging ratios,
another parameter used to characterize particle removal processes by precipitation, for NH4
+, Cl−, SO4
2−, and NO3
− were found to be higher than those of Na+, K+, and Ca2+ of oceanic and crustal origins. This enrichment implied that gaseous species NH3, HCl, and HNO3 could also be washed out readily. These additional sources of ions in precipitation presumably counter-balanced the dilution
effect caused by high total precipitation volume in the marine and tropical area. 相似文献
5.
Guangjian Wu Baiqing Xu Tandong Yao Chenglong Zhang Shaopeng Gao 《Atmospheric Research》2009,93(4):784-792
This study measured the concentration of heavy metal elements in atmospheric aerosol samples collected between July 2004 and April 2006 at a remote site on Mt. Muztagata (38°17'N, 75°01'E, 4430 m), in the Eastern Pamirs. Inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy (ICP–MS) results show that the air at Muztagata contains low concentrations of As and heavy metal elements (Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb, and Bi), comparable with those in the Arctic — far lower than in heavily populated or industrialized areas. Observed enrichment factor (EF) values greater than 10 for those elements suggest partly anthropogenic sources. Seasonal variations in the concentrations of Zn, Cd, Pb, Bi, and As resemble those of crustal Al, with greater concentrations during the summer but lower ones in winter. Our results reveal that the background atmosphere in remote inner Asia is only weakly affected by anthropogenic pollution, and demonstrate that high heavy metal concentrations occur during summer but with greater EF values during the winter. The air mass back-trajectory analyses suggest that pollution from West Asia, Central Asia, and South Asia are the main possible source areas that contribute to the heavy metals in aerosols at Muztagata. 相似文献
6.
J. Räisänen 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1999,64(1-2):1-13
Summary The qualitative agreement of two climate models, HADCM2 and ECHAM3, on the response of surface climate to anthropogenic climate
forcing in the period 2020 – 2049 is studied. Special attention is paid to the role of internal climate variability as a source
of intermodel disagreement. After illustrating the methods in an intermodel comparison of simulated changes in June–August
mean precipitation, some global statistics are presented. Excluding surface air temperature, the four-season mean proportion
of areas in which the two models agree on the sign of the climatic response is only 53 – 60% both for increases in CO2 alone and for increases in CO2 together with direct radiative forcing by sulphate aerosols, but somewhat larger, 59 – 70% for the separate aerosol effect.
In areas where the response is strong (at least twice the standard error associated with internal variability) in both models,
the agreement is better and the contrast between the different forcings becomes more marked. The proportion of agreement in
such areas is 57 – 75% for the response to increases in CO2 alone, 64 – 84% for the response to combined CO2 and aerosol forcing, and as high as 88 – 94% for the separate aerosol effect. The relatively good intermodel agreement for
aerosol-induced climate changes is suggested to be associated with the uneven horizontal distribution of aerosol forcing.
Received December 2, 1998 Revised May 5, 1999 相似文献
7.
The modification of greenhouse gas warming by the direct effect of sulphate aerosols 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) second generation climate model (GCMII) consists of an atmospheric
GCM coupled to mixed layer ocean. It is used to investigate the climate response to a doubling of the CO2 concentration together with the direct effect of scattering by sulphate aerosols. As expected, the aerosols offset some of
the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming; the global annual mean screen temperature change due to doubled CO2 is 3.4 °C in this model and this is reduced to 2.7 °C when an estimate of the direct effect of anthropogenic sulphate aerosols
is included. The pattern of climate response to the comparatively localized aerosol forcing is not itself localized, and it
bears a striking resemblance to the response pattern that arises from the globally distributed change in GHG forcing. This
“non-local” response to “localized” forcing indicates that the pattern of climate response is determined, to first order,
by the overall magnitude of the change in forcing rather than its detailed nature or structure. Feedback processes operating
in the system apparently determine this pattern by locally amplifying and suppressing the response to the magnitude of the
change in forcing. The influence of the location of the change in forcing is relatively small. These “non-local” and “local”
effects of aerosol forcing are characterized and displayed and some of their consequences discussed. Effects on the moisture
budget and on the energetics of the global climate are also examined.
Received: 10 June 1997 / Accepted: 8 January 1998 相似文献
8.
D. M. Sonechkin N. M. Astafyeva N. M. Datsenko N. N. Ivachtchenko B. Jakubiak 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1999,64(1-2):131-142
Summary The surface air temperature time series of both hemispheres and the North Atlantic European area as well as the Southern
Oscillation (SO) index time series were analysed using a wavelet transform technique. The values of the so-called singularity
exponents of these series were estimated and compared with such estimations for some surrogate time series artificially created
from the observed temperature series. It was concluded that the climate dynamics on interannual and interdecadal scales may
be considered as a kind of classical Brownian motion although its consideration as a flicker-noise is also possible. The extracted
temperature variations were shown to be closely coupled with the SO process. The wavelet-transformed SO series reveals itself
as a whole self-similar “tree” the main branches of which are the appearances of the strongest El-Ninos of 1898 – 1899, 1941 – 1942,
and 1982 – 1983. Similar “trees” can be seen in the wavelet-transformed temperature series. Thus, the extracted temperature
variations were shown to be closely coupled with the SO process, and a decomposition of the current global climate dynamics
into three climatic epochs (of about 40-year long) seems to be appropriate.
Received May 4, 1998 Revised April 25, 1999 相似文献
9.
Sensitivity studies of the RegCM3 simulation of summer precipitation, temperature and local wind field in the Caribbean Region 总被引:6,自引:1,他引:6
D. Martínez-Castro R. Porfirio da Rocha A. Bezanilla-Morlot L. Alvarez-Escudero J. P. Reyes-Fernández Y. Silva-Vidal R. W. Arritt 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2006,86(1-4):5-22
Summary We present a preliminary evaluation of the performance of three different cumulus parameterization schemes in the ICTP Regional
Climate Model RegCM3 for two overlapping domains (termed “big” and “small”) and horizontal resolutions (50 and 25 km) in the
Caribbean area during the summer (July–August–September). The cumulus parameterizations were the Grell scheme with two closure
assumptions (Arakawa–Schubert and Fritsch–Chappell) and the Anthes-Kuo scheme. An additional sensitivity test was performed
by comparing two different flux parameterization schemes over the ocean (Zeng and BATS).
There is a systematic underestimation of air temperature and precipitation when compared with analyzed data over the big domain
area. Greater (∼2 °C) and smaller (∼0.9 °C) negative temperature biases are obtained in Grell–FC and Kuo convective scheme,
respectively, and intermediate values are obtained in Grell–AS. The small domain simulation produces results substantially
different, both for air temperature and precipitation. Temperature estimations are better for the small domain, while the
precipitation estimations are better for the big domain.
An additional experiment showed that by using BATS to calculate the ocean fluxes in the big domain instead of the Zeng scheme,
precipitation increases by 25% and the share of convective precipitation rose from 18% to 45% of the total, which implies
a better simulation of precipitation. These changes were attributed to an increase of near surface latent heating when using
BATS over the ocean. The use of BATS also reduces the cold bias by about 0.3–0.4 °C, associated with an increase of minimum
temperature.
The behavior of the precipitation diurnal cycle and its relation with sea breeze was investigated in the small domain experiments.
Results showed that the Grell–Arakawa–Schubert closure describes better this circulation as compared with Grell–Fritsch–Chappell
closure. 相似文献
10.
This work concerns an analysis of inter-basin and inter-layer exchanges in the component ocean part of the coupled ECHAM4/OPYC3
general circulation model, aimed at documenting the simulation of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and related thermohaline
circulations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The modeled NADW is formed mainly in the Greenland– Iceland–Norwegian Seas
through a composite effect of deep convection and downward cross-isopycnal transport. The modeled deep-layer outflow of NADW
can reach 16 Sv near 30 °S in the South Atlantic, with the corresponding upper-layer return flow mainly coming from the “cold
water path” through Drake Passage. Less than 4 Sv of the Agulhas “leakage” water contributes to the replacement of NADW along
the “warm water path”. In the South Atlantic Ocean, the model shows that some intermediate isopycnal layers with potential
densities ranging between 27.0 and 27.5 are the major water source that compensate the NADW return flow and enhance the Circumpolar
Deep Water (CDW) flowing from the Atlantic into Indian Ocean. The modeled thermohaline circulations in the Indian and Pacific
Oceans indicate that the Indian Ocean may play the major role in converting deep water into intermediate water. About 16 Sv
of the CDW-originating deep water enters the Indian Ocean northward of 31 °S, of which more than 13 Sv “upwell” mainly near
the continental boundaries of Africa, South Asia and Australia through inter-layer exchanges and return to the Antarctic Circumpolar
Current (ACC) as intermediate-layer water. As a contrast, only 4 Sv of Pacific intermediate water is connected to “upwelling”
flow southward across 31 °S while the magnitude of northward deep flow across 31 °S in the Pacific Ocean is significantly
greater than that in the Indian Ocean. The model suggests that a large portion of the deep waters entering the Pacific Ocean
(about 14 Sv) “upwells” continually into some upper layers through the thermocline, and becomes the source of the Indonesian
throughflow. Uncertainties in these results may be related to the incomplete adjustment of the model’s isopycnal layers and
the sensitivity of the Indonesian throughflow to the model’s geography and topography.
Received: 12 August 1997/Accepted: 12 March 1998 相似文献
11.
J. Otterman R. Atlas J. Ardizzone D. Starr J. C. Jusem J. Terry 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1999,64(3-4):201-211
Summary The relationship between European surface temperature and winds over the eastern North Atlantic are investigated for the
years 1988 to 1997. Daily Special Sensor Microwave Imager SSM/I observations are used to evaluate a monthly surface wind index
that quantifies the influence of southwesterly flow. Our wind index and the monthly-mean surface-air temperatures in late
winter and early spring over France and northern-latitude Europe are highly correlated. In February, the year-to-year increases/decreases
match every year for France (correlation of 0.82 with the Index); and every year with just one exception for Europe (correlation
with the Index of 0.76 for a longitudinal strip through Europe 45–50° N, and 0.73 for the 50–60° N strip). In March, the increases/decreases
of the wind Index and of the temperatures for France also match, but the correlation with the Index is lower, 0.65.
The high correlation between our Index and the large interannual fluctuations in the monthly temperature in late winter and
early spring indicate that the onset of the spring conditions in Europe is significantly influenced by the wind patterns over
the eastern North Atlantic.
Coinciding with the fluctuations from warm-Europe/high-Index winter to the opposite conditions, we observe “seesaw” effects,
fluctuations over the North Atlantic, in opposite directions in the east (25–5° W), and the west (65–45° W). In the low-Index
years we find that: (a) the surface-air temperatures in the west are appreciably higher than in the east (but slightly lower
in the high-Index year), and (b) the difference between the 500 mb meridional wind in the west and that in the east is positive
and large, exceeding 10 m s−1 (but it becomes negative and small in the high-Index years). The “seesaw” effects suggest that a positive feedback exits
between these cross-Atlantic temperature differences and the surface winds.
Received August 7, 1998 Revised April 23, 1999 相似文献
12.
The paper presents the importance of the Nocturnal Boundary Layer in driving the diurnal variability of the atmospheric CO2 mixing ratio and the carbon isotope ratio at ground level from an urban station in India. Our observations are the first
of their kind from this region. The atmospheric CO2 mixing ratio and the carbon isotopic ratio were measured for both the morning (05:30–07:30 IST) and afternoon time (16:00–18:00
IST) air samples at 5 m above ground level in Bangalore city, Karnataka State (12° 58′ N, 77° 38′ E, masl = 920 m) for a 10 day
period during the winter of 2008. We observed a change of ~7% the in CO2 mixing ratio between the morning and afternoon time air samples. A stable isotope analysis of CO2 from morning samples showed a depletion in the carbon isotope ratio by ~2‰ compared to the afternoon samples. Along with
the ground-based measurement of air samples, data of radiosonde measurements were also obtained from the Indian Meteorological
Department to identify the vertical atmospheric structure at different time in a day. We proposed the presence or absence
of the NBL as a controlling factor for the observed variability in the mixing ratio as well as its isotopic composition. Here
we used the Keeling model approach to find out the carbon isotope ratio for the local sources. The local sources have further
been characterized as anthropogenic and biological respiration (in %) using a two-component mixing model. We also used a vertical
mixing model based on the concept of the mixing of isotopically depleted (carbon isotope) “polluted air” (PA) with isotopically
enriched “free atmospheric air” (FA) above. Using this modeling approach, the contribution of FA at ground level is being
estimated for both the morning and afternoon time air samples. 相似文献
13.
Summary The Siberian High is the most important atmospheric centre of action in Eurasia during the winter months. Here its variability
and relationship with temperature and precipitation is investigated for the period 1922 to 2000. The pronounced weakening
of the Siberian High during the last ∼ 20 years is its most remarkable feature. Mean temperature, averaged over middle to
high latitude Asia (30° E–140° E, 30° N–70° N), is correlated with the Siberian High central intensity (SHCI) with correlation
coefficient of − 0.58 (1922–1999), and for precipitation, the correlation coefficient is − 0.44 (1922–1998). Taking the Arctic
Oscillation (AO), the SHCI, the Eurasian teleconnection pattern (EU), and the Southern Oscillation (SO) index into account,
72 percent of the variance in temperature can be explained for the period 1949–1997 (for precipitation the variance is 26
percent), with the AO alone explaining 30 percent of the variance, and the Siberian High contributing 24 percent. The precipitation
variance explained by the Siberian High is only 9.8 percent of the total.
Received January 2, 2001 Revised November 24, 2001 相似文献
14.
Y. N. Samsonov 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2007,56(2):127-147
A chemical substance being in a high-disperse state (fine aerosol particles and very thin films) in the environment reveals
specific chemical and physicochemical features which differ from the processes in a relatively coarse disperse object and,
even more, in ordinary liquid and solid “test-tube” assays. The kinetics and the mechanism of the direct and sensitized photochemical
destruction of pesticide compound fipronil C12H4Cl2F6N4OS have been experimented as applied to the aerosol particles ≈0.12–1.3 μm in diameter and thin films ≈0.02–0.6 μm thick on
the glass plates. A non-photochemical (“dark”) reaction of fipronil molecules with the OH radicals which spontaneously proceeds
in the ambient air was also observed. Quantitative estimations based on experimental results show that the fipronil pollutant,
observed in the atmosphere in the form of levitated aerosols, can convert chemically in the above reaction with the OH radicals
for a very short time (from several minutes for a particle 2 μm in diameter to 12–24 h for a particle of 20–30 μm). The fipronil
residues presented on foliage either in the form of 1–20 μm films or as a group of deposited 2–30 μm aerosols react under
sunlight by two photochemical pathways (photooxidation and photodecay). The lifetime of these residues in the ambient conditions
is expected to be 11–25 days. Besides, adding a small amount of the Shirvanol 2 sensitizer to the fipronil formulation, one
can increase the overall decomposition rate to 8–12 days. 相似文献
15.
CLIMAP SSTs re-revisited 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
T. J. Crowley 《Climate Dynamics》2000,16(4):241-255
Since the 1976 publication of the CLIMAP ice age sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction showing a 1–2 ∘C tropical cooling a substantial debate has arisen as to whether tropical SSTs may instead have been 4–5∘ colder than present. Herein I review the arguments for large SST variations and question a number of key findings, particularly
the validity of ice-age coral SST estimates and “down-projecting” tropical snowline changes to the surface. GCM results indicate
that an intermediate solution requiring ∼2.5 ∘C warm pool cooling is consistent with most quantitative low elevation surface land data and is small enough to allow the
persistence of tropical biota in the ocean during glacial times. The proposal reduces estimated ice-age climate sensitivity
(for a doubling of CO2) from a “high-end” sensitivity of about 4.5 ∘C (for a 5–6 ∘C tropical cooling) to a “mid-range” sensitivity of about 3.0 ∘C for a 2.5 ∘C warm-pool decrease.
Received: 28 July 1999 /Accepted: 12 August 1999 相似文献
16.
环球海洋大气气溶胶化学研究 III:金属形态和入海通量 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
中国第三次南极考察和环球科学考察,历经北太平洋、南太平洋、南极半岛海域、南大西洋、北印度洋、以及沿途近岸海域,共收集58个气溶胶样品,采用石墨炉原子吸收法分析其中的水可溶态和酸可溶态的Mn、Fe、Pb、Cu、Cd。气溶胶中金属表现明显陆源向大洋输送的浓度梯度,近岸海域上空金属含量大于大洋上空含量,北太平洋上空含量高于南太平洋和南极半岛海域。气溶胶中金属的水可溶程度,在近岸海域上空依次为Cd>Mn>Cu>Fe>Pb,百分比分量分别为39%,36%, 23%,14%和5.3%;在大洋上空依次为Cd>Mn>Fe>Cu>pb,百分比分量分别为62%,44%,11%,3.1%和2.5%。本文还计算和比较各观测海区上空金属从大气输入海水的通量。 相似文献
17.
Krzysztof Kolon Aleksandra Samecka-Cymerman Alexander J. Kempers Lucyna Mróz 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2010,66(3):157-166
Concentrations of the elements Ca, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Pb, V and Zn were measured in the moss Pleurozium schreberi from the Tatra National Park, one of the most protected regions in Poland. The moss samples were collected at different elevations
between 860 and 2220 m a.s.l. P. schreberi was used as bioindicator for long range transported atmospheric pollution investigating the hypothesis that elevation influences
the concentrations of elements in this moss. Principal component and classification analysis (PCCA) distinguished between
mosses from the highest and the lowest elevations and mosses from West/East oriented valleys. P. schreberi from the highest elevations contained the highest concentrations of Cd, Cu, Cr, Fe, Mn, Pb, V and Zn. P. schreberi from the lowest elevation contained the highest concentration of K. P. schreberi from West/East oriented valleys contained the highest concentrations of Ni and Co. P. schreberi from the Tatra National Park, one of the most protected areas in Poland, receives metals originating from long distance aerial
transport. 相似文献
18.
Sergej Zilitinkevich Hannu Savijärvi Alexander Baklanov Branko Grisogono Kai Myrberg 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,119(3):591-593
In this short communication we highlight the NATO Advanced Research Workshop (ARW) “Atmospheric Boundary Layers: Modelling and Applications for Environmental Security”, to be held in Dubrovnik, Croatia, 18–22 April 2006 (http:// pbl-nato-arw.dmi.dk) and the “Summer School on Air-Sea Interaction” to be held in Helsinki, Finland, 28 August–1 September 2006 (http://www.scasi.fi). These two events are connected to the ongoing Ev Marie Curie Chair Project “Planetary boundary layers – Theory, modelling and role in earth systems” (PBL – TMRES, Contract MEXC-CT-2003-509742, www.atm.helsinki.fi/PBL/). 相似文献
19.
Forecasting the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures by neural network models 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
We used neural network models to seasonally forecast the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the
Ni?o 3.4 region (6 °S–6 °N, 120 °W–170 °W). The inputs to the neural networks (i.e., the predictors) were the first seven wind stress empirical orthogonal function
(EOF) modes of the tropical Pacific (20 °S–20 °N, 120 °E–70 °W) for four seasons and the Ni?o 3.4 SSTA itself for the final season. The period of 1952–1981 was used for training the neural
network models, and the period 1982–1992 for forecast validation. At 6-month lead time, neural networks attained forecast
skills comparable to the other El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) models. Our results suggested that neural network models
were viable for ENSO forecasting even at longer lead times of 9 to 12 months. We hypothesized that at these longer leads,
the underlying relationship between the wind stress and Ni?o 3.4 SSTA became increasingly nonlinear. The neural network results
were interpreted in light of current theories, e.g., the role of the “off-equatorial” Rossby waves in triggering the onset
of an ENSO event and the delayed-oscillator theory in the development and termination of an ENSO event.
Received: 31 October 1995 / Accepted: 25 July 1996 相似文献
20.
Solar irradiance, sunshine duration and daylight illuminance derived from METEOSAT data for some European sites 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Summary
Radiometric ground truth data from seven Norwegian stations (58–64° N), and from five other European stations (38–61° N),
are compared to satellite-derived data in the present paper. Hourly global irradiance at ground level is estimated by the
Heliosat procedure from the “visible” channel of the geostationary satellite METEOSAT. With increasing latitude this satelllite
sees the earth’s surface at an increasingly unfavourable angle. Nevertheless, in this paper, global irradiance estimates reproduce
high latitude ground truth data with negligible Mean Bias Deviations (MBD) and only minor deviations regarding frequency distributions.
Moreover, the Root Mean Square Deviations (RMSD) are comparable to those typically seen between ground truth stations some
20–30 km apart.
Using a number of auxiliary models, a multiplicity of ground level solar radiation data is obtained from satellite-derived
global irradiance data, and made available at the SATEL-LIGHT www server. The accuracy of the half-hourly data thus derived
from Heliosat global irradiances, using models for diffuse fraction, luminous efficacy and slope/horizontal ratios, is successfully
verified against ground truth data.
Received August 31, 2000/Revised January 31, 2001 相似文献