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1.
利用河北省1984～2014年142个国家气象站的降水资料和历史灾情,以房屋为承灾体,基于优势分析法确定致灾因子的影响权重,构建暴雨综合致灾指数模型。以影响环境脆弱性的要素为指标,运用K-mean聚类分析法将河北省分成5个区域,采用指数函数拟合房屋损失与综合致灾指数的关系,反推出各个类型区不同灾情等级对应的综合致灾指数阈值,并通过2015～2019年的124个灾情案例进行验证。结果表明:河北省暴雨造成的房屋灾情事件发生次数总体呈现出北多南少的特征,北部山区普遍在10次以上。致灾因子中过程总雨量的影响权重最大,为68%,最大日降水量、持续日数、过程最大小时雨强所占权重分别为22%、6%和4%。模拟灾情的最佳等级分割点为损坏房屋1180、335、235间,此时模拟灾情等级与实际灾情等级一致的比例最高（67.4%）。阈值检验中,2015～2019年灾情案例的准确率为69.8%,轻度灾情等级的准确率最高。 相似文献
2.
河北省主要气象灾害时空变化的统计分析 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
根据1984~2011年河北省气象灾害统计数据和河北省气候影响评价资料,分析了河北省气象灾害灾次和灾情的时空分布特征。研究表明:河北省主要的气象灾害有暴雨洪涝、旱灾、雹灾、风灾和雷灾等5类,5类气象灾害存在明显的时空分布特征。河北省暴雨洪涝主要集中在河北省西北部,灾次比最大值0.038;冰雹灾情主要集中在张家口、承德以及位于太行山东麓的保定西部地区,灾次比最大值为0.027;干旱灾情主要集中在邯郸以及沧州南部,灾次比最大值为0.036;大风灾情主要集中在河北中部,高值中心在唐山北部,灾次比最大值为0.030;雷电灾情主要集中在秦皇岛、张家口以及石家庄,灾次比最大值为0.034。河北省暴雨日数分布与暴雨洪涝灾情分布的不一致表明气象灾害灾情除与致灾因子有关外,还与承灾体脆弱性密切相关。 相似文献
3.
利用2010—2020年南疆气象观测逐小时降水及各县暴雨洪涝灾情数据，将灾损指标按百分位法划分为4个等级。基于GIS技术的自然断点法，从暴雨事件和孕灾环境方面，将暴雨洪涝灾害危险性等级划分为低、中低、中高、高4级。结果表明：受灾人口特重区域在和田地区洛浦县、墨玉县和于田县；直接经济损失特重在和静县、沙雅县、乌什县；农作物受灾特重在阿克苏地区沙雅县、喀什地区英吉沙县和岳普湖县。6 h、12 h、24 h最大降水量可作为南疆暴雨洪涝灾害的气象致灾因子，北部高于南部，西部高于东部，山区高于平原；暴雨洪涝灾害风险高区主要集中在和田地区于田县南部山区、阿克苏地区西部北部山区、喀什地区泽普县、巴州北部轮台县山区。 相似文献
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针对2021年7月20日发生于河南省郑州市的极端暴雨事件，利用数值模式对此次暴雨过程中的地形影响问题进行了数值试验分析。结果发现， CMA-MESO（GRAPES-MESO 3 km）模式能够较好地模拟此次极端降水过程。地形对降水具有显著影响，地形高度降低时，降水中心强度减弱，位置偏北；地形高度增加时，降水中心强度增加，位置偏南。其主要影响机制为：①太行山与郑州市西侧山体抬升作用使郑州市西部出现较强的上升运动中心；太行山南端阻挡作用使东南暖湿气流北支一部分气流向西偏转，与越过伏牛山的偏南气流及东南气流南支汇合，使郑州市上空维持大尺度水汽辐合，进而产生极端暴雨。②当地形高度增加时，东南气流北支的部分气流遇太行山阻挡转为偏东北气流，气流辐合区强度增强，郑州市上空水汽含量明显增加；而东南气流南支受伏牛山阻挡抬升作用影响在郑州市西南侧也产生了强上升气流，在郑州市西北侧与西南侧形成两个强降水中心。 相似文献
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本文使用玉屏县国家站及乡镇考核站点2014-2020年暴雨天气过程日降水量、逐小时降水量及灾情数据,统计分析玉屏县暴雨天气及致灾暴雨天气过程降水特点,对本地“三个叫应”阈值进行检验,并提炼乡镇“三个叫应”阈值。结果表明：（1）新店镇暴雨频次逐年变化幅度不大,而田坪镇变化幅度最大,朱家场镇次之。（2）全县在5-7月份出现暴雨的频次较高,6月份达到峰值,而朱家场镇暴雨频次的峰值出现在7月。（3）在所有暴雨天气过程中,短时强降水多出现在夜间,致灾分为持续性降水或平缓降水致灾、暴雨叠加致灾、短时强降水致灾。当玉屏县境内出现连续4天以上降水且累计雨量达到100mm左右,或10mm/h左右降水持续5小时～9小时,将可能出现灾情。暴雨叠加分为空间叠加及时间叠加,玉屏县辖区两次暴雨时间间隔小于1天,将极易引发相关灾害。空间叠加为玉屏县中南部3小时出现50mm降水叠加岑巩上游暴雨,玉屏县中南部将可能出现灾情。（4）对“三个叫应”阈值进行检验,结果表明各乡镇的致灾雨强并不统一,因此制定分乡镇的“三个叫应”阈值,3h阈值为40mm～60mm。 相似文献
6.
利用1971—2012年42a榆林市12县区气象台站逐日(20—20时,下同)降水资料,对致灾暴雨的时空分布特征进行统计,分析发现:榆林平均每年出现致灾暴雨3.5次,在地域上呈南部多于北部、东部多于西部分布;致灾暴雨多出现在7—8月,占致灾暴雨总次数的73%;致灾暴雨强度最大的时段出现在7月下旬至8月上旬;西太平洋副高偏北偏强、东亚大槽偏东偏弱、东亚季风偏强,亚洲区极涡偏弱时,有利于榆林产生暴雨;榆林东部的黄河沿岸暴雨多,与偏南气流和偏东气流受地形阻挡作用强迫抬升,并在榆林东部形成辐合有关。 相似文献
7.
利用1971-2012年42a榆林市12县区气象台站逐日（20一20时,下同）降水资料,对致灾暴雨的时空分布特征进行统计,分析发现：榆林平均每年出现致灾暴雨3．5次,在地域上呈南部多于北部、东部多于西部分布;致灾暴雨多出现在7—8月,占致灾暴雨总次数的73％;致灾暴雨强度最大的时段出现在7月下旬至8月上旬;西太平洋副高偏北偏强、东亚大槽偏东偏弱、东亚季风偏强,亚洲区极涡偏弱时,有利于榆林产生暴雨;榆林东部的黄河沿岸暴雨多,与偏南气流和偏东气流受地形阻挡作用强迫抬升,并在榆林东部形成辐合有关。 相似文献
8.
北方旱区喜逢春雨南方风雹暴雨致灾－１９９４年４月－杨冰洁（国家气象中心，北京１０００８１）４月份，我国月平均气温正常或偏高，华北北部和东北地区西部明显偏高。北方，上中旬各有一次大范围降水过程，冬麦区大部旱情解除或缓和。到月底止，北方重旱区只分布在北京... 相似文献
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2004年第2季度，广东省季平均气温偏高，降水偏少，日照大部分地区偏多。季度内暴雨和强对流天气发生频繁，局部地方出现灾情；东南部和雷州半岛由于降水偏少明显，汛期仍出现旱情。6月底全省出现大范围高温炎热天气，部分地方极端最高气温破历史记录。 相似文献
10.
在全球变暖的背景下，内蒙古夏季极端降水事件频发。作为中国北方重要的生态安全屏障，该区域对气候变化的敏感性日渐凸显。本文基于1981-2020年国家站日降水观测数据及中国第一代全球大气再分析产品（CRA40），研究了近40年内蒙古夏季极端暴雨变化规律及其动力因子特征。研究表明：（1）内蒙古夏季降水量呈自西向东逐渐递增的空间分布，东西差异明显，且与地形分布密切相关，暴雨贡献率较大的区域主要集中在河套地区和内蒙古东南部地区。近40年里，全区大部分站点夏季降水为减少趋势，其中显著减少的站点达到36.44%。（2）内蒙古夏季极端暴雨主要集中在7月和8月，并且具有明显的年际变化特征，2000年后极端暴雨发生频率降低，但在2016年以后，极端暴雨事件开始显著增多。近40年里全区共发生12次极端暴雨过程，影响区域主要集中在西部的河套地区和东南部地区。（3）在河套地区和东南部地区的极端暴雨过程中，动力因子大值区与强降水区基本重合，东部地区降水落区的动力因子明显大于西部地区。4种动力因子对东南部典型极端暴雨过程都有很好的指示意义，但在西部典型极端暴雨过程中，湿热力平流参数和热力波作用密度表现更好。（4）C... 相似文献
11.
Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d. 相似文献
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Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region. 相似文献
13.
Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms. 相似文献
14.
The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics. 相似文献
15.
《大气和海洋科学快报》2013,(1):67
正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.SUBMISSIONAll submitted 相似文献
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<正>With the support of specialized funds for national science institutions,the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration set up in October 2008 an experiment base for marine meteorology and a number of observation systems for the coastal boundary layer,air-sea flux,marine environmental elements,and basic meteorological elements at Bohe town,Maoming city,Guangdong province,in the northern part of the South China Sea. 相似文献
18.
《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,7(6):F0003-F0003
AIMS AND SCOPE
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
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《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,(5):F0003-F0003
AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） pub- lishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmos- phere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
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《大气和海洋科学快报》2012,(3):273
正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences 相似文献