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1.
NOAA RFE 2.0在西藏高原的验证 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
随着卫星探测技术的不断提高和资料处理方法的不断改进,出现了许多卫星遥感降水估算产品。每种产品都有优点及不足,且卫星间接式降水估算方法的精度也有限,但对地形复杂常规气象站台站稀少且分布极不均匀的大面积地区如西藏高原来说,卫星遥感不失为估算区域降水的有效方法之一。鉴于卫星遥感降水估算精度的局限性,每种产品需要利用地面观测数据来定量化降水估算误差,分析和评价这些资料的可用性。利用NOAA气候预测中心(CPC)研发的RFE 2.0降水估算产品,从西藏高原东南部到西北部不同气候区选取11个典型气象站2005—2006年6—9月的日降水量观测资料,验证了RFE 2.0降水估算产品在西藏高原的应用效果。结果表明,西藏高原的主要气候区RFE 2.0估算值与地面观测值之间的相关系数在0.45～0.86,平均为0.74;RFE 2.0估算的正确率POD (Probability Of Detection)一般大于73%,而空报率FAR(False Alarm Rate)为2%～12%;仅在喜马拉雅南麓地区估算精度相对较差。 相似文献
2.
广义线性统计降尺度方法模拟日降水量的应用研究 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
利用1960—2010年青藏高原23个台站和长江下游25个台站的日降水量观测资料及NCEP再分析资料,采用广义线性模型的统计降尺度方法模拟台站日降水量,并评估了广义线性模型对日降水量的模拟能力。在建模期(1960—2005年)广义线性模型对日降水量表现出良好的模拟能力,两区域模拟结果与观测值1月平均相关系数0.75左右,7月也均超过0.5。模拟结果大部分台站日降水偏大,但偏大的量值较小;模拟的无降水准确率较高,最高值在高原区域,1月平均达85.2%。检验期(2006—2010年)广义线性模型模拟的日降水与建模期具有较好的一致性。此外,对两区域代表站的分析显示,广义线性模型模拟降水极值和降水0值的效果较好,且较好地还原了主要降水过程。总之,广义线性模型对日降水量的降尺度效果良好,适合应用于气候领域的相关研究。 相似文献
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基于1961-2015年上海降水观测数据和8个全球气候模式GCMs模拟的日降水量数据,采用累计概率分布函数构建转换模型CDF-T建立了站点尺度日降水量的统计降尺度模型。结果表明,降尺度模型显著改善了GCMs对降水日数偏多、降水强度偏低和降水量偏少的模拟结果。与利用全年日降水序列建模结果相比,利用汛期日降水序列建模更好地刻画了汛期降水的累计概率分布曲线,同时提高了汛期总降水量、降水强度和年平均暴雨日数、暴雨量、暴雨强度的均值和变化趋势的降尺度效果。模型对较长年份的暴雨重现期订正效果更佳。与当代(2006-2015年)气候相比,2016-2095年上海降水呈现以下特征:全年和汛期总降水量和降水强度增加,降水日数减少,未来可能出现更多的旱涝年;汛期降水极端性增强,暴雨降水均值和极端值均增加;50年以上重现期的年最大日降水量未来呈前40年减少后40年增加的变化。CDF-T模型为站点尺度气候变化影响评估和未来预估提供降尺度技术和基础气候数据。 相似文献
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非齐次隐马尔可夫降尺度方法对江淮流域夏季逐日降水的模拟及其评估 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
引入非齐次隐马尔可夫模型(Nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model,NHMM)统计降尺度方法,利用1961—2002年江淮流域夏季逐日降水资料、欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的ERA-40再分析资料建立模型,检验其对东部季风区(以江淮流域为代表)夏季日降水的模拟能力,并对比BCC-CSM1.1(m)模式NHMM降尺度前后的模拟效果。结果表明,NHMM降尺度方法通过建立降水概率分布态间转移参数与大尺度环流变量的联系,对江淮流域逐日降水量具有较好的降尺度效果。模拟的各站日降水量概率分布函数(PDF)曲线与观测非常接近,布赖尔评分(Brier Score,S_B)均小于0.11%,显著性评分(Significance Score,Ss)均大于0.84;夏季总降水量、降水日数、中雨日数、降水强度和95%分位降水量指数的多年平均场偏差百分率绝对值低于10%,前3个指数的空间相关系数高于0.9;该方法对各降水指数的年际变率也有一定的模拟能力,模拟得到的各指数的区域平均年际序列与观测序列的相关系数为0.62—0.87。对BCC-CSM1.1(m)模式的模拟结果进行降尺度后,SB较降尺度前平均减小0.57%,Ss平均增大0.23,皆表明降尺度后的概率分布函数曲线更接近于观测;各降水指数在多数台站的偏差百分率绝对值由大于40%降至10%以内,空间相关系数普遍提高至0.8以上。NHMM降尺度方法能够有效提高BCC-CSM1.1(m)模式对江淮流域夏季日降水的模拟能力,相对气候模式具有显著的"增值",未来可进一步利用该方法进行气候变暖背景下的日降水变化预估。 相似文献
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利用124个测站2011—2012年6—8月逐小时降水资料,分辨率为0.25°×0.25°的TRMM估测降水和DEM 高程数据,采用相关系数、相对误差和准确性指标,分析了西藏高原TRMM估测降水整体表现能力及海拔高度对降水估测影响。结果表明：TRMM估测降水在西藏高原整体趋势较一致,降水量级偏大,次数偏多;平均无降水准确率远高于平均有降水准确率,漏测率低而空测率高,降水量大的测站TRMM估测能力相对强。西藏高原上大部分测站处于相对低洼（河谷）地带,海拔高度差较小的区域TRMM估测降水与测站降水误差小,较大的区域误差则大。 相似文献
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基于2001~2010年TRMM 3B43降水资料和数字高程模型（DEM）数据,采用回归模型＋残差的方法,对甘肃临夏回族自治州近10 a的TRMM 3B43降水数据进行降尺度运算,并结合研究区6个雨量站的观测值,对TRMM 3B43降尺度结果进行精度检验,在此基础上定量研究了临夏回族自治州近10 a的降水量时空变化特征。结果表明：TRMM 3B43降尺度降水量数据整体上具有一定的可信度,但比地面台站的观测值偏小;甘肃临夏州年降水量呈现出由西南向东北递减的趋势,且降水量随着海拔高度的升高而逐渐增加,两者相关系数为0.82;年内降水主要集中在5~9月,基本占全年降水量的70%以上,其中6月降水量最大,12月降水量最小。 相似文献
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利用适合性检验方法，对云南省125个测站1961年一2000年40a逐月降水资料是否符合正态分布进行了检验，并对云南降水正态分布做了区划。研究结果表明，云南在雨季(5—10月)通过显著性检验的测站数明显少于干季(11一次年4月)通过显著性检验的测站数，其中8月份仅4站次通过显著性检验，而12月份高达97站次，占全省总站次的77．6％；即云南雨季降水多符合正态分布，而在于季多符合非正态分布，8月份几乎全省符合正态分布，而12月份大部份测站都不符合正态分布。云南降水量的正态统计分布一方面具有一定的区域性特征，另一方面又具有较强的局地性，不同的月份同一测站降水量的正态性不同。因此，在做有关降水量的分析预报时，很有必要考虑其正态性的统计分布特征。 相似文献
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利用1998—2016年TRMM和CMORPH两种遥感卫星资料降水和同期三峡库区气象观测站数据,通过比较干、支流和远、近库区气象站点的降水变化和蓄水前后降水量、雨日、降水强度和频率等变化特征,分析评估了基于两种卫星遥感降水和测站降水的三峡库区局地降水变化。结果表明:库区TRMM和CMORPH卫星降水年际变化特征总体上与气象观测站相符,反演效果在日尺度TRMM略逊于CMORPH,在季尺度CMORPH略逊于TRMM;两种卫星资料对冬季降水反演效果都偏弱。三峡库区干流和支流站点的降水变化总体一致,干、支流各站点降水量均具有较强的年际变化特征。TRMM相比CMORPH更能重现干、支流测站降水的年际变化特征,CMORPH降水年际波动振幅总体上比测站偏大。蓄水前后时段(1998—2003年与2004—2016年)对比,从不同等级降水的强度和雨日、季节降水频率和总量等变化反演效果来看,CMORPH资料分布相比TRMM更接近测站的变化趋势,反演效果略优于TRMM;但两种卫星资料的降水频率和降水量分布与测站的误差在蓄水前后变化都不明显。此外,气象测站、TRMM、CMORPH资料都表现出蓄水后三峡远、近库区年降水量的比值呈平稳波动状态,表明三峡水库蓄水后附近地区降水没有明显变化。 相似文献
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青藏高原东部雨季OLR与降水变化特征及相关分析 总被引：1，自引：6，他引：1
利用美国NOAA系列气象卫星观测的1974年6月—2003年12月(其中1978年3~12月缺测)2.5°×2.5°经纬网格月平均射出长波辐射(OLR)资料,以及青藏高原上84个测站同期月总降水量资料,采用EOF方法,取前3个载荷向量及主分量讨论其空间和时间变化特征。结果表明:(1)在雨季(5~9月)降水量的高值中心与OLR的低值中心基本重合,OLR可以较好地反映降水情况。(2)近30年雨季高原台站平均降水量呈增加趋势,高原平均OLR有减小趋势,两者在时间变化上有较好的反相关性。(3)在雨季,高原OLR东南部低,西北部高;降水量的分布则相反,是东南多西北少,OLR低值中心与降水高值中心相对应,在高原主体两者之间的相关系数达到了-0.35以上(通过α=0.05显著性水平检验)。(4)降水与OLR在整体空间特征中呈相反趋势,结合主分量(PC1~PC3)的变化,可以得到高原北部降水减少,南部增加;而OLR则相反,北部增大、南部减小。OLR与降水的空间异常特性呈相反变化分布,这进一步揭示了在高原雨季OLR与降水两者的负相关关系。 相似文献
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The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics. 相似文献
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Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d. 相似文献
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Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region. 相似文献
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Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms. 相似文献
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Yuepeng PAN Mengna GU Yuexin HE Dianming WU Chunyan LIU Linlin SONG Shili TIAN Xuemei Lü Yang SUN Tao SONG Wendell W. WALTERS Xuejun LIU Nicholas A. MARTIN Qianqian ZHANG Yunting FANG Valerio FERRACCI Yuesi WANG 《大气科学进展》2020,37(9):933-938
正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on 相似文献
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《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,7(6):F0003-F0003
AIMS AND SCOPE
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
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《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,(5):F0003-F0003
AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） pub- lishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmos- phere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
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《大气科学进展》2014,(6)
正Aims Scope Advances in Atmospheric Sciences(AAS)is an international journal on the dynamics,physics,and chemistry of the atmosphere and ocean with papers across the full range of the atmospheric sciences,co-published bimonthly by Science Press and Springer.The journal includes Articles,Note and Correspondence,and Letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
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DING Yihui WU Guoxiong Da-Lin ZHANG ZHANG Renhe Co-Chief Editors 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2014,28(5):669-670
As we will soon celebrate the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Meteorological Society （CMS）,Acta Meteorologica Sinica （AMS）,which was originally named as Bulletin of the Chinese Meteorological Society,has gone through 89 years of development and excitement since her first issue in July 1925.According to archived documents （CMS Editorial Committee,1925）,AMS was founded to report the research findings of Chinese meteorologists,record their recommendations for improving meteorological services,and share their common meteorological interests in order to promote the growth of AMS such that more members could be inspired to conduct atmospheric research and meteorological knowledge would be better disseminated to and benefit the general public.By upholding and carrying forward this purpose,AMS has published many highly valuable scientific papers.Some could be treated as classical articles,which have produced important influences on both domestic and international meteorological communities and the related fields. 相似文献