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黑龙江省气候变化与农业发展对策 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
黑龙江省气候变化与农业发展对策祖世亨黑龙江省地处中高纬度，是８０年代气候明显变暖的地区，预计９０年代前期黑龙江省仍以变暖变干为主要趋势，变暖的季节主要是冬季和春季，变暖的时间主要是夜间，即夜间的最低气温上升，而白天的最高气温没有上升。未来气候变化的总... 相似文献
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温县气候变化对粮食安全影响及应对措施 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
对温县1971~2000年各年平均气温及距平气温变化分析结果表明,温县与全球气候变暖趋势相一致。气候变暖,将可能造成粮食产量的下降。为避免或减轻气候变化对粮食安全的影响,一是采取主动适应措施,调整农业结构,改善农业基础设施,选育抗高温产品,保护农业生态环境;二是依靠科技进步,减缓气候变化。 相似文献
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对温县1971～2000年各年平均气温及距平气温变化分析结果表明,温县与全球气候变暖趋势相一致.气候变暖,将可能造成粮食产量的下降.为避免或减轻气候变化对粮食安全的影响,一是采取主动适应措施,调整农业结构,改善农业基础设施,选育抗高温产品,保护农业生态环境;二是依靠科技进步,减缓气候变化. 相似文献
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大兴安岭地区2000区夏季高温天气特征及成因分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
对2000年夏季高温天气特征和造成这种天气气候的主要成因作了详细分析。主要结论为：大兴安岭地区多数台站夏的平均气温接近或超过历史极值；≥30℃高温日数偏多，初日早，终目晚，极端最高气温未突破历史极值。造成今年夏季高温酷热天气的主要成因是夏季气浊 处于短期气候的变暖趋势里，并处于周期变化中偏高的应用相里，极涡偏弱值向极地和南亚高亚偏强偏东偏北是造成今年夏季气温异常偏高的最直接的气象因素；强烈的太阳活动和赤道东太平洋上弱的负海温距平也是造成今年夏季气温偏高的重要原因。 相似文献
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利用长江源区5个气象站44a的气温、降水量以及两个探空站500hPa露点资料,分析了该地区气候变化趋势、突变及其变化成因。结果表明:近44a来长江源区气温普遍升高,冬季升温幅度较大,夏季增温趋势明显。进入21世纪后,长江源区冬季增温加剧;年降水量又现增加趋势,降水量的增加主要集中在冬季。长江源区气候在波动性变暖变干过程中,自1986年起出现了气候转向暖湿的信号,其主要原因在于全球变暖并由此引起的海洋蒸发和陆地蒸散加强,地气水分循环加快,空中水汽输送加强。 相似文献
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１９９４年，我国南北大部降水比较丰沛，中部地区降水偏少，北方春末夏初旱、秋旱及江淮流哉伏旱范围较大，部分地区旱情严重。汛期，我国出现南北两条明显多雨带，桂、粤、湘及辽、吉等省（区）部分地区发生严重洪涝灾害。全国大部地区气温偏高，低温冻害轻，东北初霜明显偏晚，对农业生产十分有利；夏季，大部地区出现罕见持续高温。登陆台风明显偏多，危害重，其中浙江受灾最重。风雹灾害轻。总的来看，１９９４年气候年景为一般 相似文献
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Over the years, the Hong Kong Observatory has carried out scientific studies to evaluate the observed climate trends and project the future climate in Hong Kong. Analysis of the meteorological observations at the observatory's headquarters in Tsim Sha Tsui since 1885 reveals that the temperature rise in Hong Kong during the past 124 years is in accord with the global rising trend. The accelerated rising trend in the mean temperature in last few decades may be attributed to the anthropogenic influences, especially urbanization. A similar increasing trend is also observed for rainfall. Other observations such as increasing cloud amount and decreasing total global solar radiation are all consistent with the global trend. Studies of past occurrences of extreme temperature and rainfall have also been carried out. The results indicate that cold episodes have become rarer while very hot days and heavy rain events are becoming more frequent. The observatory also makes use of the data from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and employs statistical downscaling techniques to carry out projections of temperature and precipitation in the 21st century. It is found that the rise in temperature in Hong Kong will be slightly higher than the global mean in the 21st century. The annual rainfall in Hong Kong is also expected to rise by the end of the 21st century, so is its year-to-year variability. 相似文献
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旅游业是贵州经济发展的重要支柱产业。气候资源作为不可或缺的一种旅游资源,既造就了贵州多彩多姿的自然风光和人文景观,又以“冬无严寒、夏无酷暑”的气候优势,极大地增加了贵州旅游的吸引力,尤其是在“气象+旅游”模式下,形成了由避暑旅游辐射开来的全省生态旅游“集团化”品牌,对贵州地方经济、社会发展、生态建设和乡村振兴产生极大的推动作用。文章在分析贵州气候优势条件的基础上,研究探讨了旅游气候品牌效应,提出在继续深挖夏季气候优势,持续打造避暑旅游品牌的前提下,应根据贵州立体气候特征及贵州独具特色的喀斯特地域地貌,深入发掘贵州冬季避寒、康养、低纬度地区冬季赏雪观景等气候旅游资源,为打造贵州全域旅游、全时旅游品牌提供参考。 相似文献
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Florent BRIENT 《大气科学进展》2020,37(1):1-15
Models disagree on a significant number of responses to climate change,such as climate feedback,regional changes,or the strength of equilibrium climate sensitivity.Emergent constraints aim to reduce these uncertainties by finding links between the inter-model spread in an observable predictor and climate projections.In this paper,the concepts underlying this framework are recalled with an emphasis on the statistical inference used for narrowing uncertainties,and a review of emergent constraints found in the last two decades.Potential links between highlighted predictors are explored,especially those targeting uncertainty reductions in climate sensitivity,cloud feedback,and changes of the hydrological cycle.Yet the disagreement across emergent constraints suggests that the spread in climate sensitivity can not be significantly narrowed.This calls for weighting the realism of emergent constraints by quantifying the level of physical understanding explaining the relationship.This would also permit more efficient model evaluation and better targeted model development.In the context of the upcoming CMIP6 model intercomparison a growing number of new predictors and uncertainty reductions is expected,which call for robust statistical inferences that allow cross-validation of more likely estimates. 相似文献
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基于云南省、贵州省和广西壮族自治区共163个站点气候资料和主要经济作物产地分布数据,应用作物生态学和农业气象学原理,分析云南气候特征与经济作物种植的气候适宜性关系。结果表明,受季风气候、高原山地气候、低纬气候的影响,云南干湿季节分明、夏季气温偏低、春秋季长、气温日较差大、干季日照较多,具有气候区域性和层次性差异特点,由此云南各气候带的经济作物种植适宜性也不同,其中,低纬高原气候最适宜云南烤烟和滇中花卉产业发展,低纬高原南亚热带季风气候区的滇西南适宜种植喜湿润、要求强光少的南亚热带深根类作物,高原山地气候叠加季风气候带则适宜发展多种(类)经济作物,然而高原气候和季风气候也给云南经济作物种植带来夏秋光热欠足、冬春干旱和短时段低温冷害的不利影响。 相似文献
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1993年我国天气气候特点 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
１９９３年，我国大部地区降水较丰沛。干旱一般持续时间不长，灾情偏轻，旱区主要集中在北方。汛期持续性大范围暴雨天气少，各大江河水势较平稳，未发生大范围洪涝，但局地性暴雨洪涝较多，雨涝区主要集中在南方，粤，湘，赣，苏，鲁等部分地区涝灾较重。全国大部地区春，夏季温光条件较差，秋季温光条件较好，有７个台风和热带风暴在我国登陆，其个数与多年平均数相同；冰雹灾害接近常年。总的来年，１９９３年气候年景为一般偏好 相似文献
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Equity has been at the core of the global climate debate since its inception over two decades ago, yet the current negotiations toward an international climate agreement in 2015 provide a new and critical opportunity to make forward progress on the difficult web of equity issues. These negotiations and the discussions about equity are taking place in a context that has shifted: all countries will be covered under a new agreement; growing climate impacts are being felt, especially by the most vulnerable; and there is an emergence of new institutions and increasing complexity in the international climate regime. Innovative thinking on equity, including which countries should take action and how, is therefore essential to finalizing an agreement by 2015. A broader, deeper, and more holistic view of equity is necessary, one that sees equity as a multi-dimensional challenge to be solved across all the facets of the international climate process.Policy relevanceThis article is relevant to policy makers following the development of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform as it prepares the way for a new agreement in 2015. The article focuses specifically on the issues most relevant to the debate around equity in the negotiations and how that debate is evolving with the expansion of the UNFCCC. It explains the current state of the negotiations and what issues are on the negotiating table, including the fact that negotiations on equity are now much broader than the mitigation commitments, to include the possible ‘equity reference framework’, concerns relating to adaptation and loss and damage, and the need for ambition in terms of mitigation and finance support. 相似文献
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Lindsey Jones Clara Champalle Sabrina Chesterman Laura Cramer Todd A. Crane 《Climate Policy》2013,13(5):551-572
We carry out a structured review of the peer-reviewed literature to assess the factors that constrain and enable the uptake of long-term climate information in a wide range of sectoral investment and planning decisions. Common applications of long-term climate information are shown to relate to urban planning and infrastructure, as well as flood and coastal management. Analysis of the identified literature highlights five categories of constraints: disconnection between users and producers of climate information, limitations of climate information, financial and technical constraints, political economy and institutional constraints and finally psycho-social constraints. Five categories of enablers to the uptake of long-term climate information in decision-making are also identified: collaboration and bridge work, increased accessibility of climate information, improvement in the underlying science, institutional reform and windows of opportunity for building trust.Policy relevanceOur review suggests that stand-alone interventions aimed at promoting the uptake of climate information into decision-making are unlikely to succeed without genuine and sustained relationships between producers and users. We also highlight that not every decision requires consideration of long-term climate information for successful outcomes to be achieved. This is particularly the case in the context of developing countries, where the immediacy of development challenges means that decision makers often prioritize short-term interventions. Care should therefore be taken to ensure that information is targeted towards investments and planning decisions that are relevant to longer-term timescales. 相似文献
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论述了百余年来气候变化的事实及对未来情景的预估。1861年以来,全球平均温度升高了0.6±0.2℃。20世纪90年代是20世纪最暖的10a。近百年来,降水分布也发生了变化,大陆地区尤其是中高纬地区降水增加,非洲等一些地区降水减少。气候模式模拟表明:全球平均地表气温到2100年时将比1990年上升1.4￣5.8℃。21世纪全球平均降水将会增加,但大部分年平均降水增加的区域很可能同时出现大的年际变化。全球平均海平面到2100年时将比1990年上升0.09￣0.88m。北半球雪盖和海冰范围将进一步缩小。未来,若干极端事件发生的频率会增加。 相似文献