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1.
极地气象考察与全球变化研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
南极和北极是地球上的气候敏感地区，也是多个国际计划研究全球气候变化的关键地区。极地包含了大气、海洋、陆地、冰雪和生物等多圈层相互作用的全部过程，在全球气候的形成和变化中有重要的作用。极地大气科学考察与研究是极地科学研究的重要组成部分。到2006年底，中国自主组织了23次南极考察，2次北冰洋考察和3次北极站考察；建成了南极长城站、中山站和北极黄河站，并在南极冰盖设置了3个无人自动气象站；开展了有关极地大气科学与全球变化的研究。在南北极地区，进一步加强国际合作，继续监测包括近地面温度在内的大气要素的变化，提高极地气象业务水平；拓展极地气象业务和大气科学考察研究领域，积极获取气候代用资料；进一步量化和认识极地在全球变化中的作用，及其对中国天气气候和国民经济可持续发展的影响；建立完善极地大气科学研究体系，提高极地大气科学研究水平，仍是中国极地大气科学与全球变化研究的重要内容之一。 相似文献
2.
南极和北极是地球上的气候敏感地区, 也是多个国际科学计划研究全球气候变化的关键地区。极地大气科学考察与研究是极地科学研究的重要组成部分。中国气象科学研究院的极地大气科学考察与研究始于20世纪80年代, 25年来有较大进展。中国气象科学研究院参加了我国组织的23次南极考察、2次北冰洋考察和3次北极考察; 承担了南极长城站和中山站、北极黄河站气象业务建设和维持, 以及中-澳合作南极冰盖3个无人自动气象站工作; 进行了常规地面气象、Brewer大气臭氧、近地面物理、冰雪和大气化学等观测, 获得了较为系统的极地大气环境资料。开展了有关极地大气科学与全球变化的研究, 在极地天气气候特征及气候变化时空多样性、极地海冰变化和南极海冰涛动、极地近地面物理特征和海-冰-气相互作用、中山站臭氧变化特征及南极臭氧洞和大气化学、气候代用资料获取和古气候环境以及极地大气环境变化对东亚环流和中国天气气候影响等方面的研究取得了新进展。中国极地大气科学正积极通过多学科交叉、走国际合作道路, 努力提高对极地在全球变化中作用的认识水平, 并积极探索极地变化对我国气候、环境的影响。 相似文献
3.
地球北极和南极部分地区正在经历着以变暖和冰冻圈退缩为主要特征的显著变化,不仅深刻影响着当地生态环境和社会经济,而且具有半球乃至全球效应。IPCC在2019年9月发布的《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》（SROCC）第三章对极地系统变化及其影响与适应做了系统评估,主要呈现了IPCC第五次评估报告（AR5）之后极地冰冻圈、海洋、生态和社会系统相互作用的最新科学认知,探讨了降低脆弱性和风险、增强适应性和恢复力的路径。文中对SROCC第三章进行扼要解读,主要内容包括：(1)极地海洋、海冰、积雪/冻土/淡水冰、冰盖与冰川等极地系统要素过去和未来变化及其影响以及极地与中低纬度天气气候之间的关联;(2)人类响应极地系统变化的策略和不足以及应对未来变化的不确定性;(3)当前加强极地恢复力建设的主要行动及其实施进展。 相似文献
4.
南北极海冰的时空变化特征 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
本文分析了南北极海冰多年平均覆盖资料，给出南北极海冰的年内变化特征，极地海冰最多最少月份的空间分布。计算了２月及９月海冰年际变化方差分布，并对２月及９月南北极海冰７个分区域覆盖面积作了ＥＯＦ分解，为进行南北极海冰影响全球气候的数值试验提供了海冰变化的空间配置 相似文献
5.
近20年来中国极地大气科学研究进展 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
南极、北极和青藏高原是地球上的 3大气候敏感地区 ,是多个国际计划研究全球变化的关键地区。中国的南极和北极实地考察研究 ,分别始于 2 0世纪 80和 90年代 ,起步较晚 ,但近 2 0余年来有较大的进展。极地大气科学考察与研究是极地科学研究的重要组成部分。讫今为止 ,中国已组织了 2 0次南极考察和 3次北极考察 ,建立了中国南极长城站、中山站和北极黄河站等 3个常年科学考察站 ;进行了常规地面气象、Brewer大气臭氧、近地面物理、高层大气物理、冰雪和大气化学等观测 ,获得了较为系统的极地大气科学第一手资料 ;开展了有关极地与全球变化的研究 ,取得了新的进展。南极地区大气温度、臭氧和海冰的气候变化在时间和空间上都是多样的。南极地区的增暖主要发生在南极半岛地区 ,在南极大陆主体并不明显 ,近 10余年来还有降温趋势。中国南极长城站和中山站的观测资料也证实了这一点。此外 ,还揭示了南极半岛西侧和罗斯海外围的海冰变化具有“翘翘板”特征 ,由此定义的南极涛动指数可用来讨论南极海冰状况和海冰关键区的活动 ;用实地考察资料研究了极地不同下垫面的近地面物理和海 -冰 -气相互作用特征 ,给出了边界层特征参数 ;讨论了极地天气气候和大气环境特征及其对东亚大气环流和中国天气气候的影响 ;利用 相似文献
6.
极地海冰变化对气候的影响 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4
本文为“极地海冰变化对气候的影响”专题研究工作的简单小结。本工作从资料分析特别是从数值试验研究了极地海冰广度异常的气候效应，着重揭示了极地海冰异常对大气环流和气候的影响是全球性的，它可激发出全球大气异常遥相关型波形，表现出具有与赤道太平洋海温异常同样生命的作用；讨论了极地海冰异常对大气环流影响的机制以及极地海冰变化特征和物理过程。 相似文献
7.
极冰气候效应的数值试验 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用一个大气环流模式（ＡＧＣＭ）和一个全球耦合海气模式（ＣＯＡＧＣＭ）,模拟了北极海冰边界范围的变化对月平均气候的影响。结果表明,极冰边缘的异常完全可以改变中高纬度某些地区的局地气候。受冷源的影响,北半球中高纬度冷高压加强,低纬度暖高压减弱。同时利用一个全球三维大气环流模式,作了海冰反照率参数化的数值试验,用两种不同的海冰反照率参数化方案,检验对地表面温度、海平面气压、极地表面对太阳辐射吸收的影响。模拟试验表明了冰雪圈反照率的反馈作用,对气候变化的影响十分重要。 相似文献
8.
本文利用１９７３—１９８２年南极海冰北界资料，分析了南极海冰平均北界（海冰范围）的变化及其与南半球大气环流变化间的联系。１９７６年前，南极海冰平均北界偏北（海冰范围扩大），而１９７７年－１９８０年，南极海冰平均北界偏南（海冰范围缩小）。与此相对应，这两个时期的南半球大气环流具有明显不同的特点。在南极海冰平均北界偏北、海冰范围扩大时期，南极高压和绕极低压带偏弱，南半球中高纬度地区槽脊位置偏西，南印度洋和南大晒洋副热带高压偏弱，南太平洋副热带西凤减弱、中纬度西风加强，而南太平洋副热带高压和印度尼西亚低压带发展，南方涛动处于正位相阶段；在南极海冰平均北界偏南、海冰范围缩小时期，则相反。分析表明，南方涛动与南极海冰之间存在相互联系，并以南极海冰超前南方涛动约２个月时的关系最好，其次是南极海冰落后南方涛动４个月。 相似文献
9.
极地海冰是地球气候系统的重要组成部分,也是气候环境变化的指示器和放大器。极地海冰复杂的多尺度物理过程和极地观测资料的匮乏,给海冰模式的研发带来了巨大的挑战。在过去的半个多世纪中,大气-海冰-海洋的复杂相互作用和冰内物理过程在海冰模式中的数学描述取得了重大的进展,但海冰模式对一些重要物理过程的描述仍很不完善,尤其是近年来极地海冰的快速变化及其物理特性的变化,极大地增加了海冰模式物理参数化方案和模拟结果的不确定性。因此,迫切需要具备完善物理过程、适应海冰多尺度快速变化的高分辨率海冰模式,并应用于全球气候变化的研究和预测以及极地的开发利用。本文从海冰模式的发展历程和现状、极地海冰快速变化给海冰模式带来的挑战以及适应极地快速变化海冰模式的改进和发展研究方向三个方面进行了阐述和讨论。 相似文献
10.
在气候系统五大圈层中,冰冻圈对气候变化高度敏感,近几十年来气候变暖已引起全球冰川、冻土、积雪和海冰等冰冻圈要素加速退缩,进而对区域水资源、生态环境、社会经济发展和人类福祉产生了深远影响。2018年10月,IPCC在韩国仁川公布了《全球1.5℃增暖特别报告》（SR1.5）。报告较系统地呈现了关于全球1.5℃温升目标的基本科学认知,并探讨了可持续发展及消除贫困目标下加强全球响应的路径。在冰冻圈相关内容方面,报告呈现了有关全球1.5℃和2℃温升下冰冻圈（主要是海冰和多年冻土）变化及其对大气圈、水圈、生物圈、岩石圈和人类圈影响的一些亮点结论,还关注了全球1.5℃和2℃温升下冰冻圈相关的气候变化热点（区）和地球系统临界因素。报告指出,随着温度不断升高,冰冻圈及其相关要素和热点（区）面临的风险将不断增加,但将全球温升控制在1.5℃而不是2℃或更高时的风险将大大降低。 相似文献
11.
Yvan J. Orsolini Retish Senan Rasmus E. Benestad Arne Melsom 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(11-12):2437-2448
The autumn and early winter atmospheric response to the record-low Arctic sea ice extent at the end of summer 2007 is examined in ensemble hindcasts with prescribed sea ice extent, made with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts state-of-the-art coupled ocean–atmosphere seasonal forecast model. Robust, warm anomalies over the Pacific and Siberian sectors of the Arctic, as high as 10°C at the surface, are found in October and November. A regime change occurs by December, characterized by weaker temperatures anomalies extending through the troposphere. Geopotential anomalies extend from the surface up to the stratosphere, associated to deeper Aleutian and Icelandic Lows. While the upper-level jet is weakened and shifted southward over the continents, it is intensified over both oceanic sectors, especially over the Pacific Ocean. On the American and Eurasian continents, intensified surface Highs are associated with anomalous advection of cold (warm) polar air on their eastern (western) sides, bringing cooler temperatures along the Pacific coast of Asia and Northeastern North America. Transient eddy activity is reduced over Eurasia, intensified over the entrance and exit regions of the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks, in broad qualitative agreement with the upper-level wind anomalies. Potential predictability calculations indicate a strong influence of sea ice upon surface temperatures over the Arctic in autumn, but also along the Pacific coast of Asia in December. When the observed sea ice extent from 2007 is prescribed throughout the autumn, a higher correlation of surface temperatures with meteorological re-analyses is found at high latitudes from October until mid-November. This further emphasises the relevance of sea ice for seasonal forecasting in the Arctic region, in the autumn. 相似文献
12.
W. F. Budd 《Climatic change》1982,4(4):341-351
Summary and Conclusions The Last Great Ice Sheets provides a valuable compilation for current estimates of the extent and timing of the maximum ice
extent of the last ice age period around the globe. The areas of uncertainty are indicated and emphasis is given to points
of controversy where further research is needed to resolve the most important problems still remaining. The work thereby presents
plausible upper and lower limit estimates for the maximum extent of the ice corresponding to about 18 ka BP. These limits
can be used for the boundary conditions required for atmospheric climate modelling studies. For this type of application the
differences in the upper and lower limits are not serious and consequently the possible errors in the reconstruction estimates
are not so important.
The greatest uncertainties in the ice cover reconstructions occur for the northerly limits of the grounded ice which tend
to be in off-shore regions where reliable data is sparse. This signals the requirement for a much greater research effort
to collect off-shore sediment sequences and other data to help clarify the ice cover fluctuation record. The possibility of
an extensive arctic ice shelf system and marine ice sheet cover interconnecting with the various grounded ice sheets is put
forward as a working hypothesis along with arguments in favour of the upper limit estimates for the maximum ice extent. The
extent of the ice age ice shelves is an important question which should be examined by dynamic ice sheet modelling with explicit
ice shelf formulation. The extensive growth of the ice sheets to seaward margins leads naturally to ice shelf formation. The
major questions are: how extensive were the ice shelves, and to what extent did coalescence occur?
The further hypothesis that the ice shelves may have had a major role in the growth and decay of the ice sheets is more difficult
to support since the results of the dynamic modelling indicate that the ice shelves form readily as a result of extensive
growth of the ice sheets but it is difficult to start extensive ice growth near sea level.
The information presented for the timing of the advance towards the maximum ice cover and the subsequent pattern of retreat
provides further valuable material to test the dynamic ice sheet and climate models including the reactions to the Earth's
orbital radiation changes. These results for the rates of change of the ice cover taken together with the modelling results
of Budd and Smith indicate that neither the ice sheets nor the bedrock depression had time to reach equilibrium states.
The non-equilibrium nature of the ice sheets with only short periods between relatively rapid advance and retreat phases is
an important factor that needs to be taken into account in assessing the reconstructions of the ice sheets. This emphasises
the need for further work with dynamic ice sheet models and coupled global atmosphere ocean models to determine more clearly
the sequence of changes during the growth and decay of the large ice sheets. ‘The Last Great Ice Sheets’ provides a timely
data base and compilation to support these studies. 相似文献
13.
Variability and change in the Canadian cryosphere 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
C. Derksen S. L. Smith M. Sharp L. Brown S. Howell L. Copland D. R. Mueller Y. Gauthier C. G. Fletcher A. Tivy M. Bernier J. Bourgeois R. Brown C. R. Burn C. Duguay P. Kushner A. Langlois A. G. Lewkowicz A. Royer A. Walker 《Climatic change》2012,115(1):59-88
During the International Polar Year (IPY), comprehensive observational research programs were undertaken to increase our understanding of the Canadian polar cryosphere response to a changing climate. Cryospheric components considered were snow, permafrost, sea ice, freshwater ice, glaciers and ice shelves. Enhancement of conventional observing systems and retrieval algorithms for satellite measurements facilitated development of a snapshot of current cryospheric conditions, providing a baseline against which future change can be assessed. Key findings include: 1. surface air temperatures across the Canadian Arctic exhibit a warming trend in all seasons over the past 40?years. A consistent pan-cryospheric response to these warming temperatures is evident through the analysis of multi-decadal datasets; 2. in recent years (including the IPY period) a higher rate of change was observed compared to previous decades including warming permafrost, reduction in snow cover extent and duration, reduction in summer sea ice extent, increased mass loss from glaciers, and thinning and break-up of the remaining Canadian ice shelves. These changes illustrate both a reduction in the spatial extent and mass of the cryosphere and an increase in the temporal persistence of melt related parameters. The observed changes in the cryosphere have important implications for human activity including the close ties of northerners to the land, access to northern regions for natural resource development, and the integrity of northern infrastructure. 相似文献
14.
Long-term observations for monitoring of the cryosphere 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
John E. Walsh 《Climatic change》1995,31(2-4):369-394
Variations of the cryosphere over decadal-to-century timescales are assessed by a survey of data on sea ice, snow cover, glaciers and ice sheets, permafrost and lake ice. The recent variations are generally consistent across the different cryospheric variables, especially when placed into the context of variations of temperature and precipitation. The recent warming over northern land areas has been accompanied by a decrease of snow cover, particularly during spring; the retreat of mountain glaciers is, in an aggregate sense, compatible with the observed warming; permafrost extent and lake ice duration show similar variations in areas for which data are available. Corresponding trends are not apparent, however, in data for some regions such as eastern Canada, nor in hemispheric sea ice data, especially for winter. The data also suggest an increase of snowfall over high latitudes, including the Antarctic ice sheet.Estimates of both the climatic and the statistical significance of the recent variations are hampered by data inhomogeneities, the shortness of the records of many variables and the absence of central archives for data on several variables. The potential of monitoring by satellite remote sensing has been realized with several variables (extent of sea ice, snow cover). Other cryospheric variables (snow depth, ice sheet elevation, lake ice, mountain glaciers) may be amenable to routine monitoring by satellites pending advances in instrumentation, modifications of satellite orbit, and further developments in signal detection algorithms. The survey of recent variations leads to recommendations concerning the use of historical data,in situ measurements, and remote sensing applications in the monitoring of the cryosphere. 相似文献
15.
C. J. Van Der Veen 《Climatic change》1993,23(4):383-405
Satellite altimetry offers means of directly measuring changes in surface elevation over the polar ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. By relating these changes to variations in ice mass, it becomes possible to detect short-term changes in the Earth's ice sheets. However, it is not immediately obvious that short-term changes in surface elevation are indicative of any (long-term) trend in ice mass. An increase in ice thickness may very well reflect the response of the glacier to random fluctuations in precipitation. The spectrum of this response is dominated by low frequencies, with the majority of the variance contained in the longer time scales. As a result, the ice-thickness record may exhibit trends that have no climatic significance, but are due to a low-frequency response to random forcing. A simple model for the interpretation of observed elevation changes is developed and applied to measurements made over the Greenland Ice Sheet. It appears to be unlikely that the difference between the rate of thickening derived by Zwally and others (1989) using repeat satellite altimetry, and significantly smaller previous estimates, can be explained as being the response of the ice sheet to random climatic forcing or that this difference can be attributed to a recent increase in accumulation rate. 相似文献
16.
David G. Barber Matthew G. Asplin Richard L. Raddatz Lauren M. Candlish Scot Nickels Stephanie Meakin Klaus P. Hochheim Jennifer V. Lukovich Ryan J. Galley Simon J. Prinsenberg 《Climatic change》2012,115(1):115-133
In this paper we describe sea ice change and variability during the Canadian International Polar Year (IPY) program and examine several regional and hemispheric causes of this change. In a companion paper (Barber et al., Climate Change 2012) we present an overview of the consequences of this observed change and variability on ecosystem function, climatically relevant gas exchange, habitats of primary and apex predators, and impacts on northern peoples. Sea ice-themed research projects within the fourth IPY were designed to be among the most diverse international science programs. They greatly enhanced the exchange of Inuit knowledge and scientific ideas across nations and disciplines. This interdisciplinary and cultural exchange helped to explain and communicate the impacts of a transition of the Arctic Ocean and ecosystem to a seasonally ice-free state, the commensurate replacement of perennial with annual sea ice types and the causes and consequences of this globally significant metamorphosis. This paper presents a synthesis of scientific sea ice research and traditional knowledge results from Canadian-led IPY projects between 2007 and 2009. In particular, a summary of sea ice trends, basin-wide and regional, is presented in conjunction with Inuit knowledge of sea ice, gathered from communities in northern Canada. We focus on the recent observed changes in sea ice and discuss some of the causes of this change including atmospheric and oceanic forcing of both dynamic and thermodynamic forcing on the ice. Pertinent results include: 1) In the Amundsen Gulf, at the western end of the Northwest Passage, open water persists longer than normal and winter sea ice is thinner and more mobile. 2) Large areas of summer sea ice are becoming heavily decayed during summer and can be broken up by long-period waves being generated in the now extensive open water areas of the Chukchi Sea. 3) Cyclones play an important role in flaw leads??regions of open water between pack ice and land-fast ice. They delay the formation of new ice and the growth of multi-year ice. 4) Feedbacks involving the increased period of open water, long-period wave generation, increased open-ocean roughness, and the precipitation of autumn snow are all partially responsible for the observed reduction in multiyear sea ice. 5) The atmosphere is observed as remaining generally stable throughout the winter, preventing vertical entrainment of moisture above the surface. 相似文献
17.
Simulations of the Arctic sea ice cover over the last 32 years generated by the HadGEM1 coupled climate model are able to capture the observed long term decline in mean September ice extent. HadGEM1 is also capable of producing an episode of low September ice extent of similar magnitude to the anomalously low extent observed in 2007. Using a heat budget analysis, together with diagnostics partitioning the changes in ice and snow mass into thermodynamic and dynamic components, we analyse the factors driving the long term decline in the ice mass and extent as well as those causing the modelled low ice event. The long term decline in the mass of ice and snow in HadGEM1 is largely due to extra melting during the summer, partly at the top surface of the ice, and partly via extra heating from the ocean as it warms due to the ice retreat. The episode of low summer ice extent is largely driven by the synoptic conditions over the summer moving the ice across and out of the Arctic basin, and also due to pre-conditioning of the snow and ice which is thinner than usual in the Eastern Arctic at the start of the melt season. This case study demonstrates that although HadGEM1 does not capture the persistent dipole pressure anomaly observed during the summer of 2007, it represents broadly similar mechanisms of generating a low ice extent. 相似文献
18.
B. V. Ivanov P. N. Svyashchennikov N. E. Ivanov V. F. Timachev L. V. Luts’ko C. -P. Nilsen T. Svene J. -B. Orbaek 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2010,35(8):564-570
The results of joint Russian-Norwegian actinometric measurements carried out in Svalbard archipelago in April 2007 according
to the program of the International Polar Year are represented. The main objective is to compare the readings of standard
Russian and foreign measuring means (M-80M pyranometer constructed by Yu.D. Yanishevskii and CMP6 pyranometer made by Kipp&Zonen
company) used to register the short-wave solar radiation in polar regions. After the statistical processing of comparative
measurement results, the constant discrepancies in the device readings are revealed and the possible reasons for these discrepancies
are analyzed. 相似文献