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1.
We explore the impact of future climate change on the risk of forest and grassland fires over Australia in January using a
high resolution regional climate model, driven at the boundaries by data from a transitory coupled climate model. Two future
emission scenarios (relatively high and relatively low) are used for 2050 and 2100 and four realizations for each time period
and each emission scenario are run. Results show a consistent increase in regional-scale fire risk over Australia driven principally
by warming and reductions in relative humidity in all simulations, under all emission scenarios and at all time periods. We
calculate the probability density function for the fire risk for a single point in New South Wales and show that the probability
of extreme fire risk increases by around 25% compared to the present day in 2050 under both relatively low and relatively
high emissions, and that this increases by a further 20% under the relatively low emission scenario by 2100. The increase
in the probability of extreme fire risk increases dramatically under the high emission scenario by 2100. Our results are broadly
in-line with earlier analyses despite our use of a significantly different methodology and we therefore conclude that the
likelihood of a significant increase in fire risk over Australia resulting from climate change is very high. While there is
already substantial investment in fire-related management in Australia, our results indicate that this investment is likely
to have to increase to maintain the present fire-related losses in Australia. 相似文献
2.
The Relative Impact of Regional Scale Land Cover Change and Increasing CO2 over China 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
A series of 17-yr equilibrium simulations using the NCAR CCM3 (T42 resolution) were performed to investigate the regional scale impacts of land cover change and increasing CO2 over China. Simulations with natural and current land cover at CO2 levels of 280,355, 430, and 505 ppmv were conducted. Results show statistically significant changes in major climate fields (e.g. temperature and surface wind speed) on a 15-yr average following land cover change. We also found increases in the maximum temperature and in the diurnal temperature range due to land cover change. Increases in CO2 affect both the maximum and minimum temperature so that changes in the diurnal range are small. Both land cover change and CO2 change also impact the frequency distribution of precipitation with increasing CO2 tending to lead to more intense precipitation and land cover change leading to less intense precipitation-indeed, the impact of land cover change typically had the opposite effect versus the impacts of CO2. Our results provide support for the inclusion of future land cover change scenarios in long-term transitory climate inodelling experiments of the 21st Century. Our results also support the inclusion of land surface models that can represent future land cover changes resulting from an ecological response to natural climate variability or increasing CO2. Overall, we show that land cover change can have a significant impact on the regional scale climate of China, and that regionally, this impact is of a similar magnitude to increases in CO2 of up to about 430 ppmv. This means that that the impact of land cover change must be accounted for in detection and attribution studies over China. 相似文献
3.
Babatunde J. Abiodun Zachariah D. Adeyewa Philip G. Oguntunde Ayobami T. Salami Vincent O. Ajayi 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,110(1-2):77-96
This study investigates the potential impacts of reforestation in West Africa on the projected regional climate in the near two decades (2031–2050) under the SRES A1B scenario. A regional climate model (RegCM3) forced with a global circulation model (ECHAM5) simulations was used for the study. The study evaluates the capability of the regional model in simulating the present-day climate over West Africa, projects the future climate over the region and investigates impacts of seven hypothetical reforestation options on the projected future climate. Three of these reforestation options assume zonal reforestation over West Africa (i.e., over the Sahel, Savanna and Guinea), while the other four assume random reforestation over Nigeria. With the elevated GHGs (A1B scenario), a warmer and drier climate is projected over West Africa in 2031–2050. The maximum warming (+2.5°C) and drying (?2?mm?day?1) occur in the western part of the Sahel because the West Africa Monsoon (WAM) flow is stronger and deflects the cool moist air more eastward, thereby lowering the warming and drying in the eastern part. In the simulations, reforestation reduces the projected warming and drying over the reforested zones but increases them outside the zones because it influences the northward progression of WAM in summer. It reduces the speed of the flow by weakening the temperature gradient that drives the flow and by increasing the surface drag on the flow over the reforested zone. Hence, in summer, the reforestation delays the onset of monsoon flow in transporting cool moist air over the area located downwind of the reforested zone, consequently enhancing the projected warming and drying over the area. The impact of reforesting Nigeria is not limited to the country; while it lowers the warming over part of the country (and over Togo), it increases the warming over Chad and Cameroon. This study, therefore, suggests that using reforestation to mitigate the projected future climate change in West Africa could have both positive and negative impacts on the regional climate, reducing temperature in some places and increasing it in others. Hence, reforestation in West Africa requires a mutual agreement among the West African nations because the impacts of reforestation do not recognize political boundaries. 相似文献
4.
Johannes Feddema Keith Oleson Gordon Bonan Linda Mearns Warren Washington Gerald Meehl Douglas Nychka 《Climate Dynamics》2005,25(6):581-609
This study assesses the sensitivity of the fully coupled NCAR-DOE PCM to three different representations of present-day land
cover, based on IPCC SRES land cover information. We conclude that there is significant model sensitivity to current land
cover characterization, with an observed average global temperature range of 0.21 K between the simulations. Much larger contrasts
(up to 5 K) are found on the regional scale; however, these changes are largely offsetting on the global scale. These results
show that significant biases can be introduced when outside data sources are used to conduct anthropogenic land cover change
experiments in GCMs that have been calibrated to their own representation of present-day land cover. We conclude that hybrid
systems that combine the natural vegetation from the native GCM datasets combined with human land cover information from other
sources are best for simulating such impacts. We also performed a prehuman simulation, which had a 0.39 K ~higher average
global temperature and, perhaps of greater importance, temperature changes regionally of about 2 K. In this study, the larger
regional changes coincide with large-scale agricultural areas. The initial cooling from energy balance changes appear to create
feedbacks that intensify mid-latitude circulation features and weaken the summer monsoon circulation over Asia, leading to
further cooling. From these results, we conclude that land cover change plays a significant role in anthropogenically forced
climate change. Because these changes coincide with regions of the highest human population this climate impact could have
a disproportionate impact on human systems. Therefore, it is important that land cover change be included in past and future
climate change simulations. 相似文献
5.
6.
Recent progress in studies on land cover change and its regional climatic effects over China during historical times 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
The recent progresses on the reconstruction of historical land cover and the studies on regional climatic effects to temperature,precipitation,and the East Asian Monsoon across China were reviewed.Findings show that the land cover in China has been significantly modified by human activities over the last several thousands years,mainly through cropland expansion and forest clearance.The cropland over traditional Chinese agricultural areas increased from 5.32×105 km2 in the mid-17th century to 8.27×105 km2 in... 相似文献
7.
Assessments of the impacts of global change on carbon stocks in mountain regions have received little attention to date, in
spite of the considerable role of these areas for the global carbon cycle. We used the regional hydro-ecological simulation
system RHESSys in five case study catchments from different climatic zones in the European Alps to investigate the behavior
of the carbon cycle under changing climatic and land cover conditions derived from the SRES scenarios of the IPCC. The focus
of this study was on analyzing the differences in carbon cycling across various climatic zones of the Alps, and to explore
the differences between the impacts of various SRES scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1, B2), and between several global circulation models
(GCMs, i.e., HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2, PCM). The simulation results indicate that the warming trend generally enhances carbon
sequestration in these catchments over the first half of the twenty-first century, particularly in forests just below treeline.
Thereafter, forests at low elevations increasingly release carbon as a consequence of the changed balance between growth and
respiration processes, resulting in a net carbon source at the catchment scale. Land cover changes have a strong modifying
effect on these climate-induced patterns. While the simulated temporal pattern of carbon cycling is qualitatively similar
across the five catchments, quantitative differences exist due to the regional differences of the climate and land cover scenarios,
with land cover exerting a stronger influence. The differences in the simulations with scenarios derived from several GCMs
under one SRES scenario are of the same magnitude as the differences between various SRES scenarios derived from one single
GCM, suggesting that the uncertainty in climate model projections needs to be narrowed before accurate impact assessments
under the various SRES scenarios can be made at the local to regional scale. We conclude that the carbon balance of the European
Alps is likely to shift strongly in the future, driven mainly by land cover changes, but also by changes of the climate. We
recommend that assessments of carbon cycling at regional to continental scales should make sure to adequately include sub-regional
differences of changes in climate and land cover, particularly in areas with a complex topography. 相似文献
8.
Noah S. Diffenbaugh 《Climate Dynamics》2009,33(7-8):945-958
I have used a high-resolution nested climate modeling system to test the sensitivity of regional and local climate to the modern non-urban land cover distribution of the continental United States. The dominant climate response is cooling of surface air temperatures, particularly during the warm-season. Areas of statistically significant cooling include areas of the Great Plains where crop/mixed farming has replaced short grass, areas of the Midwest and southern Texas where crop/mixed farming has replaced interrupted forest, and areas of the western United States containing irrigated crops. This statistically significant warm-season cooling is driven by changes in both surface moisture balance and surface albedo, with changes in surface moisture balance dominating in the Great Plains and western United States, changes in surface albedo dominating in the Midwest, and both effects contributing to warm-season cooling over southern Texas. The simulated changes in surface moisture and energy fluxes also influence the warm-season atmospheric dynamics, creating greater moisture availability in the lower atmosphere and enhanced uplift aloft, consistent with the enhanced warm-season precipitation seen in the simulation with modern land cover. The local and regional climate response is of a similar magnitude to that projected for future greenhouse gas concentrations, suggesting that the climatic effects of land cover change should be carefully considered when crafting policies for regulating land use and for managing anthropogenic forcing of the climate system. 相似文献
9.
Sergio H. Franchito V. Brahmananda Rao J. Pablo R. Fernandez 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,109(1-2):73-79
This study investigates the impact of global warming on the savannization of the tropical land region and also examines the relative roles of the impact of the increase of greenhouse gas concentration and future changes in land cover on the tropical climate. For this purpose, a mechanistic–statistical–dynamical climate model with a bidirectional interaction between vegetation and climate is used. The results showed that climate change due to deforestation is more than that due to greenhouse gases in the tropical region. The warming due to deforestation corresponds to around 60% of the warming in the tropical region when the increase of CO2 concentration is included together. However, the global warming due to deforestation is negligible. On the other hand, with the increase of CO2 concentration projected for 2100, there is a lower decrease of evapotranspiration, precipitation and net surface radiation in the tropical region compared with the case with only deforestation. Differently from the case with only deforestation, the effect of the changes in the net surface radiation overcomes that due to the evapotranspiration, so that the warming in the tropical land region is increased. The impact of the increase of CO2 concentration on a deforestation scenario is to increase the reduction of the areas covered by tropical forest (and a corresponding increase in the areas covered by savanna) which may reach 7.5% in future compared with the present climate. Compared with the case with only deforestation, drying may increase by 66.7%. This corroborates with the hypothesis that the process of savannization of the tropical forest can be accelerated in future due to global warming. 相似文献
10.
We discuss climate impacts of a hypothetical shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (‘THC’) in the 2050s, using the climate model HadCM3. Previous studies have generally focussed on the effects on pre-industrial climate. Here we take into account increased greenhouse gas concentrations according to an IS92a emissions scenario. THC shutdown causes cooling of the Northern Hemisphere of -1.7?C, locally stronger. Over western Europe cooling is strong enough for a return to pre-industrial conditions and a significant increase in the occurrence of frost and snow cover. Global warming restricts the increase in sea ice cover after THC shutdown. This lessens the amount of cooling over NW Europe, but increases it over North America, compared to pre-industrial shutdown. This reflects a non-linearity in the local temperature response to THC shutdown. Precipitation change after THC shutdown is generally opposite to that caused by global warming, except in western and southern Europe, where summer drying is enhanced, and in Central America and southeast Asia, where precipitation is also further reduced. Local rise in sea level after THC shutdown can be large along Atlantic coasts (pm; 25,cm), which would add to the rise caused by global warming. Potentially rapid THC shutdown adds to the range of uncertainty of projected future climate change. 相似文献
11.
Leo Šeparović Adelina Alexandru René Laprise Andrey Martynov Laxmi Sushama Katja Winger Kossivi Tete Michel Valin 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):3167-3201
The fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) was used to dynamically downscale two Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM) simulations of the transient climate change for the period 1950–2100, over North America, following the CORDEX protocol. The CRCM5 was driven by data from the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR CGCM simulations, based on the historical (1850–2005) and future (2006–2100) RCP4.5 radiative forcing scenario. The results show that the CRCM5 simulations reproduce relatively well the current-climate North American regional climatic features, such as the temperature and precipitation multiannual means, annual cycles and temporal variability at daily scale. A cold bias was noted during the winter season over western and southern portions of the continent. CRCM5-simulated precipitation accumulations at daily temporal scale are much more realistic when compared with its driving CGCM simulations, especially in summer when small-scale driven convective precipitation has a large contribution over land. The CRCM5 climate projections imply a general warming over the continent in the 21st century, especially over the northern regions in winter. The winter warming is mostly contributed by the lower percentiles of daily temperatures, implying a reduction in the frequency and intensity of cold waves. A precipitation decrease is projected over Central America and an increase over the rest of the continent. For the average precipitation change in summer however there is little consensus between the simulations. Some of these differences can be attributed to the uncertainties in CGCM-projected changes in the position and strength of the Pacific Ocean subtropical high pressure. 相似文献
12.
The impact of land cover change on the atmospheric circulation 总被引：9，自引：1，他引：9
The NCAR Community Climate Model (version 3), coupled to the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer scheme and a mixed layer ocean
model is used to investigate the impact on the climate of a conservative change from natural to present land cover. Natural
vegetation cover was obtained from an ecophysiologically constrained biome model. The current vegetation cover was obtained
by perturbing the natural cover from forest to grass over areas where land cover has been observed to change. Simulations
were performed for 17 years for each case (results from the last 15 years are presented here). We find that land cover changes,
largely constrained to the tropics, SE Asia, North America and Europe, cause statistically significant changes in regional
temperature and precipitation but cause no impact on the globally averaged temperature or precipitation. The perturbation
in land cover in the tropics and SE Asia teleconnect to higher latitudes by changing the position and strength of key elements
of the general circulation (the Hadley and Walker circulations). Many of the areas where statistically significant changes
occur are remote from the location of land cover change. Historical land cover change is not typically included in transitory
climate simulations, and it may be that the simulation of the patterns of temperature change over the twentieth century by
climate models will be further improved by taking it into account.
Received: 27 May 1999 / Accepted: July 2000 相似文献
13.
Carbon storage and catchment hydrology are influenced both by land use changes and climatic changes, but there are few studies
addressing both responses under both driving forces. We investigated the relative importance of climate change vs. land use change for four Alpine catchments using the LPJ-GUESS model. Two scenarios of grassland management were calibrated
based on the more detailed model PROGRASS. The simulations until 2100 show that only reforestation could lead to an increase
of carbon storage under climatic change, whereby a cessation of carbon accumulation occurred in all catchments after 2050.
The initial increase in carbon storage was attributable mainly to forest re-growth on abandoned land, whereas the stagnation
and decline in the second half of the century was mainly driven by climate change. If land was used more intensively, i.e.
as grassland, litter input to the soil decreased due to harvesting, resulting in a decline of soil carbon storage (1.2−2.9 kg C
m–2) that was larger than the climate-induced change (0.8–1.4 kg C m−2). Land use change influenced transpiration both directly and in interaction with climate change. The response of forested
catchments diverged with climatic change (11–40 mm increase in AET), reflecting the differences in forest age, topography
and water holding capacity within and between catchments. For grass-dominated catchments, however, transpiration responded
in a similar manner to climate change (light management: 23–32 mm AET decrease, heavy management: 29–44 mm AET decrease),
likely because grassroots are concentrated in the uppermost soil layers. Both the water and the carbon cycle were more strongly
influenced by land use compared to climatic changes, as land use had not only a direct effect on carbon storage and transpiration,
but also an indirect effect by modifying the climate change response of transpiration and carbon flux in the catchments. For
the carbon cycle, climate change led to a cessation of the catchment response (sink/source strength is limited), whereas for
the water cycle, the effect of land use change remains evident throughout the simulation period (changes in evapotranspiration
do not attenuate). Thus we conclude that management will have a large potential to influence the carbon and water cycle, which
needs to be considered in management planning as well as in climate and hydrological modelling. 相似文献
14.
J Alcamo GJJ Kreileman JC Bollen GJ van den Born R Gerlagh MS Krol AMC Toet HJM de Vries 《Global Environmental Change》1996,6(4):261-303
This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE 2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change Indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. The scenarios indicate that the coming decades could be a period of relatively rapid global environmental change as compared to the period before and after. The natural vegetation in industrialized regions could be threatened by climate change, but abandonment of agricultural lands could also make new lands available for reforestation and revegetation. The opposite is true for most of Asia and Africa. Here the impacts of climate change on vegetation may not be as significant as in temperate climates, but the demand for food will lead to a significant expansion of agricultural lands at the expense of remaining forests and other natural areas. 相似文献
15.
Natural and anthropogenic climate change: incorporating historical land cover change,vegetation dynamics and the global carbon cycle 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
This study explores natural and anthropogenic influences on the climate system, with an emphasis on the biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of historical land cover change. The biogeophysical effect of land cover change is first subjected to a detailed sensitivity analysis in the context of the UVic Earth System Climate Model, a global climate model of intermediate complexity. Results show a global cooling in the range of –0.06 to –0.22 °C, though this effect is not found to be detectable in observed temperature trends. We then include the effects of natural forcings (volcanic aerosols, solar insolation variability and orbital changes) and other anthropogenic forcings (greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols). Transient model runs from the year 1700 to 2000 are presented for each forcing individually as well as for combinations of forcings. We find that the UVic Model reproduces well the global temperature data when all forcings are included. These transient experiments are repeated using a dynamic vegetation model coupled interactively to the UVic Model. We find that dynamic vegetation acts as a positive feedback in the climate system for both the all-forcings and land cover change only model runs. Finally, the biogeochemical effect of land cover change is explored using a dynamically coupled inorganic ocean and terrestrial carbon cycle model. The carbon emissions from land cover change are found to enhance global temperatures by an amount that exceeds the biogeophysical cooling. The net effect of historical land cover change over this period is to increase global temperature by 0.15 °C. 相似文献
16.
Andrew J.PITMAN 《大气科学进展》2005,(1)
A series of 17-yr equilibrium simulations using the NCAR CCM3 (T42 resolution) were performed to investigate the regional scale impacts of land cover change and increasing CO2 over China. Simulations with natural and current land cover at CO2 levels of 280, 355, 430, and 505 ppmv were conducted. Results show statistically significant changes in major climate fields (e.g. temperature and surface wind speed) on a 15-yr average following 相似文献
17.
Future climate projections and impact analyses are pivotal to evaluate the potential change in crop yield under climate change. Impact assessment of climate change is also essential to prepare and implement adaptation measures for farmers and policymakers. However, there are uncertainties associated with climate change impact assessment when combining crop models and climate models under different emission scenarios. This study quantifies the various sources of uncertainty associated with future climate change effects on wheat productivity at six representative sites covering dry and wet environments in Australia based on 12 soil types and 12 nitrogen application rates using one crop model driven by 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) at near future period 2021–2060 and far future period 2061–2100. We used the analysis of variance (ANOVA) to quantify the sources of uncertainty in wheat yield change. Our results indicated that GCM uncertainty largely dominated over RCPs, nitrogen rates, and soils for the projections of wheat yield at drier locations. However, at wetter sites, the largest share of uncertainty was nitrogen, followed by GCMs, soils, and RCPs. In addition, the soil types at two northern sites in the study area had greater effects on yield change uncertainty probably due to the interaction effect of seasonal rainfall and soil water storage capacity. We concluded that the relative contributions of different uncertainty sources are dependent on climatic location. Understanding the share of uncertainty in climate impact assessment is important for model choice and will provide a basis for producing more reliable impact assessment. 相似文献
18.
André Lyra Pablo Imbach Daniel Rodriguez Sin Chan Chou Selena Georgiou Lucas Garofolo 《Climatic change》2017,141(1):93-105
Tropical rainforest plays an important role in the global carbon cycle, accounting for a large part of global net primary productivity and contributing to CO2 sequestration. The objective of this work is to simulate potential changes in the rainforest biome in Central America subject to anthropogenic climate change under two emissions scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The use of a dynamic vegetation model and climate change scenarios is an approach to investigate, assess or anticipate how biomes respond to climate change. In this work, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was driven by the Eta regional climate model simulations. These simulations accept boundary conditions from HadGEM2-ES runs in the two emissions scenarios. The possible consequences of regional climate change on vegetation properties, such as biomass, net primary production and changes in forest extent and distribution, were investigated. The Inland model projections show reductions in tropical forest cover in both scenarios. The reduction of tropical forest cover is greater in RCP8.5. The Inland model projects biomass increases where tropical forest remains due to the CO2 fertilization effect. The future distribution of predominant vegetation shows that some areas of tropical rainforest in Central America are replaced by savannah and grassland in RCP4.5. Inland projections under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show a net primary productivity reduction trend due to significant tropical forest reduction, temperature increase, precipitation reduction and dry spell increments, despite the biomass increases in some areas of Costa Rica and Panama. This study may provide guidance to adaptation studies of climate change impacts on the tropical rainforests in Central America. 相似文献
19.
Temperature response to future urbanization and climate change 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Daniel Argüeso Jason P. Evans Lluís Fita Kathryn J. Bormann 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(7-8):2183-2199
This study examines the impact of future urban expansion on local near-surface temperature for Sydney (Australia) using a future climate scenario (A2). The Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to simulate the present (1990–2009) and future (2040–2059) climates of the region at 2-km spatial resolution. The standard land use of the model was replaced with a more accurate dataset that covers the Sydney area. The future simulation incorporates the projected changes in the urban area of Sydney to account for the expected urban expansion. A comparison between areas with projected land use changes and their surroundings was conducted to evaluate how urbanization and global warming will act together and to ascertain their combined effect on the local climate. The analysis of the temperature changes revealed that future urbanization will strongly affect minimum temperature, whereas little impact was detected for maximum temperature. The minimum temperature changes will be noticeable throughout the year. However, during winter and spring these differences will be particularly large and the increases could be double the increase due to global warming alone at 2050. Results indicated that the changes were mostly due to increased heat capacity of urban structures and reduced evaporation in the city environment. 相似文献
20.
Climatic conditions such as relatively cold temperatures and dryness are able to limit malaria transmission. Climate change is therefore expected to alter malaria spread. A previous assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the seasonality of malaria in Africa is revisited. Bias-corrected regional climate projections with a horizontal resolution of 0.5° are used from the Regional Model (REMO), which include land use and land cover changes. The malaria model employed is the climate-driven seasonality model (MSM) from the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa project for which a comparison with data from the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) and the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM), and a novel validation procedure lends more credence to results. For climate scenarios A1B and B1 and for 2001–2050, REMO projects an overall drying and warming trend in the African malaria belt, that is largely imposed by the man-made degradation of vegetation. As a result, the malaria projections of the MSM show a decreased length of the malaria season in West Africa. The northern Sahel is no more longer suitable for malaria in the projections and shorter malaria seasons are expected for various areas farther south. In East Africa, higher temperatures and nearly unchanged precipitation patterns lead to longer transmission seasons and an increase in highland malaria. Assuming constant population numbers, an overall increase in person-months of exposure of up to 6 % is found. The results of this simple seasonality model are similar to previous projections from the more complex LMM. However, a different response to the warming of highlands is found for the two models. It is concluded that the MSM is an efficient tool to assess the climate-driven malaria seasonality and that an uncertainty analysis of future malaria spread would benefit from a multi-model approach. 相似文献