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1.
西北地区气候与环境变化影响沙尘暴的研究进展 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
《干旱气象》2010,(4)
中国西北地区生态环境极为脆弱,由于常年水资源不足,荒漠化成为该区域主要的生态环境问题。根据诸多学者对西北地区的研究,总结了我国西北地区生态环境与气候变化的特征,以及未来发展趋势。由于气候、环境变化及沙尘暴频次之间存在着一定的耦合关系,在此基础上,通过对影响沙尘暴频次的气候因子与其相关性研究的简要阐述,并结合相关论点,来探讨西北地区气候与环境变化如何影响沙尘暴的发生发展。相关研究表明,西北地区的大风、降水、下垫面状况等都直接影响着沙尘暴的发生发展,沙尘暴发生的频率和强度与沙尘源区的状况及其气候与生态环境变化都具有密切联系。其中,在一定的下垫面条件下,大风是影响较大的因子,降水的增加对沙尘暴有一定的抑制作用,气温通过大气环流的形式间接影响沙尘暴,土壤湿度则是通过改变植被覆盖、地表状况来影响沙尘暴。 相似文献
2.
选用1982—2003年GIMMSNDVI数据集和陕西气温、降水、相对湿度资料,分析全省植被指数变化特征及其与气候因子相关性,揭示陕西植被对全球变暖的响应。结果表明:1982—2003年陕西植被覆盖总体缓慢增加,幅度为0.002/10 a,春季明显上升。陕北长城沿线及延安北部植被覆盖显著增加;关中部分地区植被由低覆盖度转为中覆盖度;秦岭东部、陕南巴山地区植被由中覆盖度转为高覆盖度;安康盆地高覆盖度植被显著增加。气温、降水和相对湿度均对植被有影响,并存在滞后效应,气温升高和相对湿度增大是植被生长期提前和延长的主要影响因素。 相似文献
3.
基于MODIS-NDVI数据及像元二分模型,对辽宁省植被覆盖度进行估算,并在此基础上探讨了辽宁植被覆盖度时空演变特征及其对气候因子的响应,结果表明：2000-2018年辽宁省植被覆盖度整体呈波动增加趋势,年平均增长速率为0.38%,呈增加趋势的面积占总面积的92.3%;2000年以来,裸地及低覆盖区域占比逐年减小,中低覆盖、中覆盖及高覆盖区域占比分别增加11.35%、11.00%和9.22%;辽宁省植被覆盖度与气候因子的关系表现出明显的空间差异性,其中,西部易旱地区覆盖度与气温呈显著负相关,与降水呈正相关,东部地区覆盖度与气温呈正相关,与降水呈负相关;辽宁植被覆盖度对降水的响应存在一个月的滞后期,对气温的响应无滞后效应。 相似文献
4.
中国北方沙尘暴频数演化及其气候成因分析 总被引：35，自引：2，他引：35
利用地面气象观测资料 ,分析了中国北方 195 4～ 2 0 0 1年年、季沙尘暴发生日数的演变规律及其与风速、相对湿度、降水、气温和干燥度的相关关系。结果表明 ,中国北方沙尘暴发生日数在 195 4～ 2 0 0 1年呈波动下降的趋势 ,春季下降趋势最明显。沙尘源区的气候要素对北方沙尘暴发生日数具有比较明显的影响 ,其中风是影响较大的因子。平均风速和大风频率增加 (减少 )均有 (不 )利于沙尘暴天气的形成。气温与沙尘暴日数呈显著的反相关关系 ,反映了北方温度升高可能通过大气环流间接地抑制了沙尘暴的发生。降水增加对沙尘暴发生也有一定抑制作用 ,尤其春季和前冬沙尘源区降水多寡对沙尘暴的发生有着重要的影响。北方沙尘暴频数与沙尘源区的相对湿度或干燥指数也存在较明显的相关关系。在过去的近 5 0a内 ,造成中国北方沙尘暴频率显著下降趋势的直接自然原因是 :沙尘源区和发生区平均风速和大风日数的减少、主要沙尘源区降水量特别是春季和前冬降水量的增加、以及由于源区降水增加引起的大气和土壤湿润程度的改善。 相似文献
5.
基于NASA提供的MODIS卫星产品MOD13Q1的归一化植被指数（NDVI）数据,利用最大值合成法及像元二分模型计算得到2000-2019年若尔盖湿地植被生长季（5-9月）的植被覆盖度。利用ERA5再分析资料月平均的2 m气温、总降水量和土壤体积含水量数据,通过趋势分析、相关分析研究2000-2019年若尔盖湿地植被生长季（5-9月）的植被覆盖与气候因子的时空分布及二者的相关程度;研究气温、降水量和土壤含水量对植被覆盖度的共同影响及各自的贡献程度。结果表明：近20年来若尔盖湿地在生长季（5-9月）的植被覆盖度略有增长;2 m气温有升高趋势,且研究区的西南部气温升高较快;研究区中南部的总降水量呈减少趋势,但不明显,在研究区中北部降水量则呈略微增加趋势;研究区北部的土壤湿度显著增加,南部则有变干的趋势。植被覆盖度与3个气候因子均呈显著的正相关关系,气候因子对植被覆盖度变化的贡献从大到小依次是2 m气温、土壤体积含水量和总降水量。 相似文献
6.
基于全球土地利用类型和覆盖度,利用生长季多年平均（1982～2015年）归一化植被指数（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI）和气候平均态（气温、降水量）数据,讨论了全球植被格局与气候因子之间的关系,建立了两者之间的多元回归模型,并分析了植被对气温和降水气候态敏感性的特征。植被与气候因子在气候梯度上存在明显的对应关系,回归模型可较好拟合气候态NDVI的全球分布格局,拟合与观测NDVI的相关系数达0.90。其中,常绿阔叶林、混交林、常绿针叶林、落叶阔叶林、农田和木本稀树草原空间分布的拟合能力较好（r>0.8）。不同土地覆盖类型的NDVI对气温、降水气候态的空间敏感性特征不同。整体而言,植被对气温和降水的敏感性呈现反相关关系（r=-0.6）。不同土地覆盖类型对气温表现出正/负敏感性,寒带灌木对气温的敏感性最强,而农作物、草原、裸地对气温负敏感性较大;植被对降水的敏感性均表现出正敏感性,其中落叶针叶林、草原和稀树草原对降水的空间敏感性较强。 相似文献
7.
青藏高原不同时间尺度植被变化特征及其与气候因子的关系分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用1982-2006年GIMMS NDVI数据,以多种统计方法为基础,探讨了青藏高原(下称高原)不同时间尺度(年际、季节及月)植被变化的时空特征及其与气候因子的关系。结果表明:高原整体年平均NDVI变化呈波动上升趋势,其中夏季趋势最大,达0.004(10a)-1。不同覆盖度像元变化对总体植被变化的贡献不同,低植被覆盖像元变化对各季节总体植被变化贡献均较大,其中冬季最大;中等植被覆盖像元变化的贡献主要在秋季;高植被覆盖像元的贡献则夏季最明显。青藏高原植被变化存在显著的空间差异,其中夏季呈增加和减少趋势的面积均最大,分别达30.51%、10.52%,增加的区域主要位于高原东部,减少的区域主要在高原中部的藏北高原。进一步分析高原植被和气候因子的相关性表明,中等植被覆盖区植被与气候因子的相关性最高,其次是高植被覆盖区,低植被覆盖区的相关性则最低。在年际和季节尺度上,植被生长主要与温度和降水的累积效应有关,其中在植被生长较好的季节和区域更明显。而在月尺度上,中低植被覆盖区植被生长受短期降水事件影响较大,高植被覆盖区则仍是温度的累积效应占主导。 相似文献
8.
利用1982-2000年逐月NOAA/AVHRR NDVI的时间序列数据,分析了天山巴音布鲁克草原植被覆盖的动态变化及其与降水、气温、浅层地温等气候因子的关系。结果表明：近20 a来巴音布鲁克草原植被覆盖面积总体上呈现增加趋势,生态环境有所改善。同时,生长季（4-9月）NDVI与降水、气温和浅层地温的相关分析表明, 气温和浅层地温是影响巴音布鲁克草原植被生长的两个重要因子。 相似文献
9.
生长季植被覆盖变化对局地气象要素的可能影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
植被覆盖变化对地表气象要素存在反馈作用,但在不同时空尺度上反馈关系及其表现强度存在差异。作者利用地面观测资料和归一化植被指数（NDVI）分析了15天尺度上植被覆盖变化对气象要素的影响。结果表明,我国北方农牧交错带生长季植被覆盖变化可能对同期、后期地表气象要素存在一定影响。当植被指数偏高时,地表平均温度、最高温度、最低温度和小雨频次偏低,而平均相对湿度和最小相对湿度偏高,影响持续约为1～2周。地表温度和小雨频次的变化与地表热通量的变化有关,当植被指数偏高时,地表潜热所占比例偏高,而地表感热所占比例偏低,导致地表温度偏低;地表感热偏低伴随偏弱的上升运动,不利于降水,故小雨频次偏低。地表温度偏低引起饱和比湿偏低,加之植被蒸腾量较大引起比湿偏高,故相对湿度偏高。此外,从长期变化来看NDVI与地表温度和小雨频次的相关不明显,故地表温度和小雨频次的长期变化可能更多是受大尺度气候变化的影响。 相似文献
10.
内蒙古中西部春季沙尘暴预测初探 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
利用1960～2000年气象资料，对内蒙古中西部地区春季(3～5月)较大范围的沙尘暴发生频率作了统计，并根据该地区40年春季降水的气候特点划分降水气候区。着眼于沙尘暴预测，分析前期或同期的天气和气候因素。结果表明：春季降水偏少，冷空气活动频繁，沙尘暴发生频率偏高；前期西太平洋副热带高压面积的大小和强弱、青藏高原位势高度的高低、亚洲纬向环流的强弱、大西洋—欧洲环流型日数和南方涛动的位相等气候因子，均对沙尘暴的发生有不同程度的影响，他们对春季谈地、区沙尘暴发生频率的预测均有参考意义。 相似文献
11.
Natural and anthropogenic climate change: incorporating historical land cover change,vegetation dynamics and the global carbon cycle 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
This study explores natural and anthropogenic influences on the climate system, with an emphasis on the biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of historical land cover change. The biogeophysical effect of land cover change is first subjected to a detailed sensitivity analysis in the context of the UVic Earth System Climate Model, a global climate model of intermediate complexity. Results show a global cooling in the range of –0.06 to –0.22 °C, though this effect is not found to be detectable in observed temperature trends. We then include the effects of natural forcings (volcanic aerosols, solar insolation variability and orbital changes) and other anthropogenic forcings (greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols). Transient model runs from the year 1700 to 2000 are presented for each forcing individually as well as for combinations of forcings. We find that the UVic Model reproduces well the global temperature data when all forcings are included. These transient experiments are repeated using a dynamic vegetation model coupled interactively to the UVic Model. We find that dynamic vegetation acts as a positive feedback in the climate system for both the all-forcings and land cover change only model runs. Finally, the biogeochemical effect of land cover change is explored using a dynamically coupled inorganic ocean and terrestrial carbon cycle model. The carbon emissions from land cover change are found to enhance global temperatures by an amount that exceeds the biogeophysical cooling. The net effect of historical land cover change over this period is to increase global temperature by 0.15 °C. 相似文献
12.
The climate-population nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging degradation trends in rangeland and pastoral livelihood zones 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Narcisa G. Pricope Gregory Husak David Lopez-Carr Christopher Funk Joel Michaelsen 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1525-1541
Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have substantially increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. We identify regions where substantial rainfall decrease between two periods interrupted by the 1998 El Nino event (1981–2012) in the East African Horn is coupled with human population density increases. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that vegetation degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using AVHRR and MODIS vegetation products from 1981 to 2012, we observe changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade across the East African Horn. We observe vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing reduced main-growing season precipitation; these areas are also concurrently experiencing increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation patterns only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes might be responsible for the observed declining vegetation condition. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, pointing to potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings may have implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends and increased climatic variability. 相似文献
13.
In a changing climate, changes in rainfall variability and, in particular, extreme rainfall events are likely to be highly significant for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. It is generally accepted that sea-surface temperatures play an important role in modulating rainfall variability, thus the majority work to date has focused on these mechanisms. However past research suggests that land surface processes are also critical for rainfall variability. In particular, work has suggested that the atmosphere-land surface feedback has been important for past abrupt climate changes, such as those which occurred over the Sahara during the mid-Holocene or, more recently, the prolonged Sahelian drought. Therefore the primary aim of this work is to undertake idealised experiments using both a regional and global climate model, to test the sensitivity of rainfall variability to land surface changes over a location where such abrupt climate changes are projected to occur in the future, namely southern Africa. In one experiment, the desert conditions currently observed over southwestern Africa were extended to cover the entire subcontinent. This is based on past research which suggests a remobilisation of sand dune activity and spatial extent under various scenarios of future anthropogenic global warming. In the second experiment, savanna conditions were imposed over all of southern Africa, representing an increase in vegetation for most areas except the equatorial regions. The results suggest that a decrease in rainfall occurs in the desert run, up to 27% of total rainfall in the regional model (relative to the control), due to a reduction in available moisture, less evaporation, less vertical uplift and therefore higher near surface pressure. This result is consistent across both the regional and global model experiments. Conversely an increase in rainfall occurs in the savanna run, because of an increase in available moisture giving an increase in latent heat and therefore surface temperature, increasing vertical uplift and lowering near surface pressure. These experiments, however, are only preliminary, and form the first stage of a wider study into how the atmosphere-land surface feedback influences rainfall extremes over southern Africa in the past (when surface i.e. vegetation conditions were very different) and in the future under various scenarios of future climate change. Future work will examine how other climate models simulate the atmosphere-land surface feedback, using more realistic vegetation types based on past and future surface conditions. 相似文献
14.
Noah S. Diffenbaugh 《Climate Dynamics》2005,24(2-3):237-251
In order to test the sensitivity of regional climate to regional-scale atmosphere-land cover feedbacks, we have employed a regional climate model asynchronously coupled to an equilibrium vegetation model, focusing on the western United States as a case study. CO2-induced atmosphere-land cover feedbacks resulted in statistically significant seasonal temperature changes of up to 3.5°C, with land cover change accounting for up to 60% of the total seasonal response to elevated atmospheric CO2 levels. In many areas, such as the Great Basin, albedo acted as the primary control on changes in surface temperature. Along the central coast of California, soil moisture effects magnified the temperature response in JJA and SON, with negative surface soil moisture anomalies accompanied by negative evaporation anomalies, decreasing latent heat flux and further increasing surface temperature. Additionally, negative temperature anomalies were calculated at high elevation in California and Oregon in DJF, MAM and SON, indicating that future warming of these sensitive areas could be mitigated by changes in vegetation distribution and an associated muting of winter snow-temperature feedbacks. Precipitation anomalies were almost universally not statistically significant, and very little change in mean seasonal atmospheric circulation occurred in response to atmosphere-land cover feedbacks. Further, the mean regional temperature sensitivity to regional-scale land cover feedbacks did not exceed the large-scale sensitivity calculated elsewhere, indicating that spatial heterogeneity does not introduce non-linearities in the response of regional climate to CO2-induced atmosphere-land cover feedbacks. 相似文献
15.
Effects of Land Cover Conversion on Surface Climate 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
This study investigates the effects of large-scale human modification of land cover on regional and global climate. A general circulation model (Colorado State University GCM) coupled to a biophysically-based land surface model (SiB2) was used to run two 15-yr climate simulations. The control run used current vegetation distribution as observed by satellite for the year 1987 to derive the vegetation's physiological and morphological properties. The twin simulation used a realistic approximation of vegetation type distribution that would exist in the absence of human disturbance.In temperate latitudes, where anthropogenic modification of the landscape has converted large areas of forest and grassland to cropland, conversion cools canopy temperatures up to 0.7 ° C in summer and 1.1 ° C in winter. This cooling results from both (1) morphological changes in vegetation which increase albedo and (2) physiological changes in vegetation which increase latent heat flux of crops compared with undisturbed vegetation during the growing season. In the tropics and subtropics, conversion warms canopy temperature by about 0.8 ° C year round. The warming results from a combination of morphological changes in vegetation offset by physiological changes that reduce latent heat flux of existing compared with undisturbed vegetation. If water efficient, tropical C4 grasses replace C3 vegetation, latent heat flux is further reduced.The overall effect of land cover conversion is cooling in temperate latitudes and warming in the tropics. Because the effects are opposite in sign in tropics and middle latitudes, they cancel each other when averaged globally. Over land, the surface temperature increased by 0.2 C in winter and remained essentially unchanged in summer. The effects on land surface hydrology were also small when averaged globally. The results suggest that the effects of land use change of the observed magnitude do not have a strong impact on the globally averaged climate but their signature at regional scales is significant and vary according to the type of land cover conversion. 相似文献
16.
中国区域陆面覆盖变化的气候效应模拟研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
基于MODIS和CLCV陆面覆盖资料,利用区域气候模式RegCM4分别进行两组24年（1978-2001年）的数值模拟试验,研究中国区域陆面覆盖变化对区域气候的影响。结果表明,以荒漠化和植被退化为主要特征的陆面覆盖变化通过改变陆面能量、水分平衡与大尺度环流进而对气候要素产生重要影响。夏季,中国南方地区普遍降温,季风边缘区及藏北高原气温升高,降水减少;季风边缘区与西北地区气温年际波动加剧;内蒙古中东部地区西南风增强,进而水汽输送增强,一定程度上增加了该地区降水。冬季,中国东部地区偏北气流增强,更多干燥冷空气南下,使得黄河以南地区降水减少、气温降低。 相似文献
17.
In this study we investigate the impact of large-scale oceanic forcing and local vegetation feedback on the variability of the Sahel rainfall using a global biosphere-atmosphere model, the coupled GENESIS-IBIS model, running at two different resolutions. The observed global sea surface temperature in the twentieth century is used as the primary model forcing. Using this coupled global model, we experiment on treating vegetation as a static boundary condition and as a dynamic component of the Earth climate system. When vegetation is dynamic, the R30-resolution model realistically reproduces the multi-decadal scale fluctuation of rainfall in the Sahel region; keeping vegetation static in the same model results in a rainfall regime characterized by fluctuations at much shorter time scales, indicating that vegetation dynamics act as a mechanism for persistence of the regional climate. Even when vegetation dynamics is included, the R15 model fails to capture the main characteristics of the long-term rainfall variability due to the exaggerated atmospheric internal variability in the coarse resolution model. Regardless how vegetation is treated and what model resolution is used, conditions in the last three decades of the twentieth century are always drier than normal in the Sahel, suggesting that global oceanic forcing during that period favors the occurrence of a drought. Vegetation dynamics is found to enhance the severity of this drought. However, with both the observed global SST forcing and feedback from dynamic vegetation in the model, the simulated drought is still not as persistent as that observed. This indicates that anthropogenic land cover changes, a mechanism missing in the model, may have contributed to the occurrence of the twentieth century drought in the Sahel. 相似文献
18.
基于1982 -2003年GIMMSNDVI遥感数据和气象资料, 综合运用趋势分析、相关分析、奇异值分解等方法, 分析我国黄淮海地区植被活动对气候变化响应的时空特征。结果表明:黄淮海地区整体气候变暖趋势比较明显, 干旱化尚不显著, 年平均植被NDVI表现为略微增加的趋势。在年尺度上, 温度是敏感性最强的气候因子, 全年温度、降水、相对湿度对植被NDVI动态变化具有正效应, 而蒸发量具有负效应; 在季尺度上, 温度、降水的敏感性最强。自然植被对降水的敏感性最强, 其次是温度; 农业植被对温度的敏感性最强, 其次是降水。植被对气候变化响应的空间特征表现为, 植被主要生长季平均NDVI与温度距平场空间结构一致, 与蒸发量距平场反位相对应, 与降水量距平场呈北、南部正负相反分布, 与相对湿度距平场呈南、北向正负相反的空间分布。 相似文献
19.
The impact of land cover change on the atmospheric circulation 总被引：9，自引：1，他引：9
The NCAR Community Climate Model (version 3), coupled to the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer scheme and a mixed layer ocean
model is used to investigate the impact on the climate of a conservative change from natural to present land cover. Natural
vegetation cover was obtained from an ecophysiologically constrained biome model. The current vegetation cover was obtained
by perturbing the natural cover from forest to grass over areas where land cover has been observed to change. Simulations
were performed for 17 years for each case (results from the last 15 years are presented here). We find that land cover changes,
largely constrained to the tropics, SE Asia, North America and Europe, cause statistically significant changes in regional
temperature and precipitation but cause no impact on the globally averaged temperature or precipitation. The perturbation
in land cover in the tropics and SE Asia teleconnect to higher latitudes by changing the position and strength of key elements
of the general circulation (the Hadley and Walker circulations). Many of the areas where statistically significant changes
occur are remote from the location of land cover change. Historical land cover change is not typically included in transitory
climate simulations, and it may be that the simulation of the patterns of temperature change over the twentieth century by
climate models will be further improved by taking it into account.
Received: 27 May 1999 / Accepted: July 2000 相似文献