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基于OASIS3(Ocean Atmosphere Sea Ice Soil version 3)耦合器,耦合区域气候模式RegCM3(Regional Climate Model version 3)和海洋模式HYCOM(Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model),建立一个区域海气耦合模式,并通过嵌套方法处理海洋模式的侧边界问题。运用该耦合模式对1982～2001年包括中国在内的东亚地区气候进行连续模拟,重点分析其对中国夏季(6～8月)降水的模拟性能。结果表明:耦合模式基本可以模拟出中国夏季降水的空间分布特征,模拟的降水量值和年际变化在靠近海洋的沿海区域比参照试验有一定程度的改善;能够再现观测夏季降水经验正交函数第一模态(EOF1)的空间分布特征,与观测EOF1的时间相关性也比参照试验有较大提高;前6个模态的组合分析也表明耦合模式对长江中下游、山东半岛、海南岛等区域夏季降水的较大时间尺度气候分量的模拟改善更显著。 相似文献
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BCC气候模式对中国近50a极端气候事件的模拟评估 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
利用中国区域437站1958—2005年逐日气温和降水资料,评估了国家气候中心（BeijingCli-mateCenter,BCC）气候模式对中国近50a极端气候事件空间分布、时间演变等方面的模拟能力。结果表明：1）模式对极端温度和降水多年平均的空间分布具有一定的模拟能力,但尚存在系统性的偏差。暖昼日数的模拟优于冷夜日数,全年冷夜日数的模拟优于冬季和夏季的模拟,而全年和夏季暖昼日数的模拟优于冬季的模拟。极端降水频次的模拟优于极端降水量的模拟;夏季和全年的模拟优于冬季的模拟。夏季极端降水频次的模拟较好,但冬季的模拟在长江中下游和华南偏小、北方偏大,而全年的模拟在长江下游及南部沿海地区系统性偏大;夏季和全年极端降水量的模拟系统性偏低,而冬季在北方偏高、南方偏低。2）模式较好地模拟出了夏季和全年冷夜日数的全国较为一致的减少趋势,再现东北和东南沿海地区冬季冷夜日数的减少趋势,但模拟的趋势较实测偏弱。模式对暖昼日数长期趋势的模拟效果较理想,较好地反映出了大部分地区暖昼事件发生频率显著增加的特征,但冬季的模拟尚有待改进。模式较好地模拟出了夏季和全年极端降水频次的长期趋势,较好地刻画了极端降水频次＂南增北减＂的特征;模式对冬季极端降水频次的变化趋势几乎无模拟能力。同样,模式也较好地模拟出了极端降水量夏季南增北减的分布形势和冬季的总体增加趋势,但对全年的模拟不理想。3）模式能较好地模拟出冷夜日数和暖昼日数异常变化的主要空间型,对EOF第一模态的时间演变特征具有一定模拟能力;但模式对第二模态时间演变特征的刻画能力较差。模式对极端降水指标的年际变化具有一定的模拟能力,对部分区域极端降水事件的年际变化具有较好的模拟能力;但模拟能力表现出了明显的区域性差异,部分区域极端降水年际变化的模拟结果与实况甚至相反,模式对极端降水年际变化的模拟能力还有待提高。所得结果可为BCC气候模式的改进及极端气候模拟、预估提供一定的参考。 相似文献
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中国近50a极端降水事件变化特征的季节性差异 总被引：14，自引：2，他引：12
利用中国419个测站1958-2007年逐日降水资料集,分析了近50a中国不同区域年和季节极端降水事件的基本变化特征。结果表明,多年平均极端降水事件的空间分布具有明显的纬向分布特征,并表现出显著的季节性差异。长江以南地区是春、冬季极端降水事件发生频次较高的区域;而年、夏季以及秋季极端降水事件发生频次在西南地区较高,在西北东部较低。年极端降水事件频次的长期变化趋势与夏季相似,华北和东北有增加趋势,其他地区为弱的减少趋势;其他季节的长期变化趋势存在明显的区域和季节性差异。年和季节极端降水事件的发生频次具有显著的年际和年代际变化特征。年极端降水事件时间序列的多项式拟合曲线的变化情况与夏季基本一致;而其他季节的变化则存在较大差异,表现出显著的季节性差异。 相似文献
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以1961—1999年我国地面观测逐日降水资料作为观测基础, 初步分析了18个全球海气耦合模式对我国20世纪极端强降水的模拟能力。分析模式对不同级别降水的模拟发现, 各模式模拟的我国1~10 mm小雨日数普遍明显偏多; 10~25 mm中雨日数的模拟结果总体上也以偏多为主, 虽然部分模式能够模拟出我国南方存在的高值中心, 但位置偏北至长江中下游地区; 25~50 mm大雨日数在我国南方明显偏少, 并且大值中心的位置基本都没能模拟出来; 50 mm以上暴雨日数的模拟结果也明显偏小, 除MIROC3.2(hires) 外大部分模式在长江以南地区的结果都未超过2 d; 大部分模式不能正确模拟出我国东部地区大雨日数变化趋势的空间分布。进一步分析各模式对极端强降水的模拟发现:各模式极端强降水阈值明显低于观测; 半数左右的模式模拟出了1961—1999年西北西部极端降水增加的趋势, 个别模式趋势系数的大小与观测相当, 大部分模式对东北和长江中下游地区的模拟结果呈与观测反向的变化趋势, 没有模式能够模拟出我国东部地区存在的东北—华北与华中—长江中下游—华南存在的极端强降水日数增加-减少-增加-减少的空间分布; 大部分模式模拟的极端强降水日数标准差与观测结果比较接近, 这可能主要是由于对观测和各模式使用了同样的判定极端强降水发生的方法。总的来看, 全球海气耦合模式对我国极端强降水的模拟能力还有待进一步改进。 相似文献
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区域海气耦合模式模拟的2003年东亚夏季风季节内振荡 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
评估了一个区域海气耦合模式(由区域环境系统集成模式RIEMS和普林斯顿海洋模式POM组成)对2003年东亚夏季风季节内振荡(ISO)的模拟性能。通过与观测海温驱动单独大气模式结果的比较,分析了海气耦合过程对东亚夏季大气ISO模拟性能的影响。结果表明:耦合模式能够模拟出2003年中国东部地区夏季降水的气候态分布,模拟的中国东部尤其是江淮地区大气ISO活动较单独大气模式更为显著。同时,耦合模式能够较好地再现大气ISO经向上北传的传播特征,模拟的江淮流域降水处于活跃和中断期时西北太平洋地区低频降水和环流异常在强度和空间分布上较单独大气模式都更为合理。相比于单独大气模式,耦合模式对大气ISO模拟的改善,一方面与其对气候态西北太平洋副热带高压和相关对流层底层风场模拟的改善有关,另一方面与其包含海气相互作用,因而对低频降水与海温和水汽辐合位相关系模拟的改善有关。 相似文献
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利用区域气候模式WRF对2003年夏季长江三角洲极端区域气候进行高分辨率模拟,通过与站点观测降水、TRMM反演降水的对比分析表明,模式较合理地模拟出2003年夏季长江三角洲降水的主要特征,模拟的夏季各月平均降水量和强降水中心位置及降水强度都与实况较接近;模拟和观测的江淮流域、长江流域及浙江南部的区域平均逐日降水序列的相关系数较高;模拟出小雨、中雨和暴雨三类不同等级的降水概率特征,对暴雨概率分布的模拟结果最好;还模拟出长江三角洲梅雨期的多次中尺度强暴雨事件,模拟的暴雨发生时间和发生区域及雨带南移、北跳与实况都很接近,但降水量略有偏差。模式合理模拟出2003年夏季高温天气较多以及受多次强降水冷却效应引起长江以南、以北地区温差较大的区域气候特征,模拟的最低、最高气温的空间分布及极大值中心与观测都较接近,最低气温模拟结果更好;还非常好地模拟出了区域平均的逐日最高、最低气温的时间演变特征,比降水更接近观测,并具有更高的时间相关系数。 相似文献
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区域海气耦合模式对中国夏季降水的模拟 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
以区域气候模式RegCM3和普林斯顿海洋模式POM为基础,建立了一个区域海气耦合模式,对1963-2002年中国夏季气候进行模拟,重点分析该耦合模式对中国夏季降水的模拟性能以及降水模拟改进的可能原因.结果表明:耦合模式对中国夏季雨带分布的模拟明显优于控制试验(单独的大气模式),对长江流域以及华南降水的模拟性能改进尤为明显,同时耦合模式能够更为真实地刻画中国东部地区汛期雨带的移动.对降水的年际变化分析发现,耦合模式模拟的1963-2002年中国夏季降水年际变率与观测吻合,模拟的夏季长江流域降水与观测降水相关系数达到0.48,模拟的华南夏季降水与观测的相关系数达到0.61,而控制试验结果与观测降水的相关系数均较小.对中国东部长江流域夏季降水与近海海温的相关分析表明,用给定海温驱动的大气模式,并不能正确模拟出中国东部夏季降水与海温的关系,而耦合模式能够较好地模拟出长江流域与孟加拉湾、南海以及黑潮区海温的关系,与GISST(全球海冰和海表温度)和观测降水相关关系一致.对水汽输送通量的分析发现,控制试验模拟的水汽输送路径与NCEP/NCAR再分析资料相比差别较大,耦合模式模拟的来自海洋上的水汽输送强度和路径与NCEP/NCAR再分析资料一致,提高了耦合模式对水汽输送的模拟能力,从而改善了模式对华南以及长江流域降水的模拟. 相似文献
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基于CMIP5资料的云南及周边地区未来50年气候预估 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
利用CRU(Climatic Research Unit)高分辨率观测数据及云南省124站资料,检验了参与IPCC AR5(政府间气候变化专门委员会第5次评估报告)的7个全球海气耦合模式(Coupled Model Intercomparison Program 5,CMIP5)及模式集合平均对云南及周边地区气温和降水的模拟性能,同时进行该区域不同温室气体排放量情景下2006~2055年的气候预估。结果表明:全球海气耦合模式对该区域气温和降水气候场空间分布、气温的线性趋势和春、夏季降水的年代际振荡特征具有一定的模拟能力,且模式集合能力优于单一模式,气温模拟优于降水模拟,但春、夏季的降水好于其他季节,使得全年的总降水好于秋、冬两季。对未来情景预估表明,研究区域未来50年气温呈现显著的线性上升趋势,降水量保持年代际振荡特征并有所增加,2020年之前我国云南及其南部区域将经历相对的干旱时期。 相似文献
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RSM模式对中国东部夏季降水模拟能力的检验 总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0
本文利用美国国家环境预报中心NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)区域谱模式RSM(Regional Spectral Model)对中国东部地区夏季降水进行了为期20 a(1984—2003年)、水平分辨率为30 km的高精度模拟,并对模拟所得降水的气候态、年际变率、逐日变化以及极端事件进行了检验,和对造成降水偏差的大气环流特征进行了分析。结果表明RSM模拟所得夏季降水的空间分布、时间变率,以及降水量值都与实况相近,也基本可以再现夏季降水的年际变率分布情况,但是模拟所得的雨带存在偏南且偏弱的特点。对于逐日降水特征,RSM模拟所得季节内逐日降水变化与实况的走势基本一致,再现了夏季降水主要集中于东部和南部的特点,模拟出了江淮地区6月日降水区随时间北抬的特点。对于极端事件,模拟和实测的夏季不同雨强的天数分布对比表明模拟与实况基本接近,但是模拟的降水日大值中心较实况偏北;极端降水指数的计算结果也表明RSM模拟的极端降水情况与实况基本一致。综上,RSM模式对中国东部地区降水有着较好的模拟能力,可以用于中国东部地区的夏季降水气候特征研究。 相似文献
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The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics. 相似文献
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Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d. 相似文献
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Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region. 相似文献
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Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms. 相似文献
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Yuepeng PAN Mengna GU Yuexin HE Dianming WU Chunyan LIU Linlin SONG Shili TIAN Xuemei Lü Yang SUN Tao SONG Wendell W. WALTERS Xuejun LIU Nicholas A. MARTIN Qianqian ZHANG Yunting FANG Valerio FERRACCI Yuesi WANG 《大气科学进展》2020,37(9):933-938
正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on 相似文献
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《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,7(6):F0003-F0003
AIMS AND SCOPE
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
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《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,(5):F0003-F0003
AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） pub- lishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmos- phere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
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《大气科学进展》2014,(6)
正Aims Scope Advances in Atmospheric Sciences(AAS)is an international journal on the dynamics,physics,and chemistry of the atmosphere and ocean with papers across the full range of the atmospheric sciences,co-published bimonthly by Science Press and Springer.The journal includes Articles,Note and Correspondence,and Letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
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DING Yihui WU Guoxiong Da-Lin ZHANG ZHANG Renhe Co-Chief Editors 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2014,28(5):669-670
As we will soon celebrate the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Meteorological Society （CMS）,Acta Meteorologica Sinica （AMS）,which was originally named as Bulletin of the Chinese Meteorological Society,has gone through 89 years of development and excitement since her first issue in July 1925.According to archived documents （CMS Editorial Committee,1925）,AMS was founded to report the research findings of Chinese meteorologists,record their recommendations for improving meteorological services,and share their common meteorological interests in order to promote the growth of AMS such that more members could be inspired to conduct atmospheric research and meteorological knowledge would be better disseminated to and benefit the general public.By upholding and carrying forward this purpose,AMS has published many highly valuable scientific papers.Some could be treated as classical articles,which have produced important influences on both domestic and international meteorological communities and the related fields. 相似文献