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1.
The new climate discourse: Alarmist or alarming? 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
The discourse on climate change is in part divided between a sense of alarm and a sense of alarmism in assessments of the magnitude and urgency of the problem. The divide in the discourse among climatologists relates to tensions in the use of key phrases to describe climate change. This article reviews evidence to support claims that climate change can be viewed as ‘catastrophic’, ‘rapid’, ‘urgent’, ‘irreversible’, ‘chaotic’, and ‘worse than previously thought’. Each of these terms are imprecise and may convey a range of meaning. The method used here is to assess whether the conventional understandings of these terms are broadly consistent or inconsistent with the science, or else ambiguous. On balance, these terms are judged to be consistent with the science. Factors which divide climatologists on this discourse are also reviewed. The divide over a sense of urgency relates to disagreement on the manner and rate at which ice sheets breakdown in response to sustained warming. Whether this rate is fast or slow, the amount of time available to reduce emissions sufficient to prevent ice sheet breakdown is relatively short, given the moderate levels of warming required and the inertia of the climate and energy systems. A new discourse is emerging which underscores the scope of the problem and the scope and feasibility of solutions. This discourse differentiates itself from existing discourses which view the magnitudes of the problem or of solutions as prohibitive. 相似文献
2.
This article documents the use of tipping points in climate change discourse to discuss their significance. We review the relevant literature, and discuss the popular emergence of tipping points before their adoption in climate change discourse. We describe the tipping point trend in mainstream US and UK print news media and in the primary scientific literature on climate change by replicating the methodologies of Oreskes [Oreskes, N., 2004. The scientific consensus on climate change. Nature 306, 1686] and Boykoff and Boykoff [Boykoff, M.T., Boykoff, J.M., 2004. Balance as bias: global warming and the US prestige press. Global Environmental Change 14, 125–136]. We then discuss the significance of climate change tipping points and their popular use in terms of generative metaphor. 相似文献
3.
Scepticism and uncertainty about climate change: Dimensions, determinants and change over time 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Lorraine Whitmarsh 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(2):690-700
While scientific consensus and political and media messages appear to be increasingly certain, public attitudes and action towards the issue do not appear to be following suit. Popular and academic debate often assumes this is due to ignorance or misunderstanding on the part of the public, but some studies have suggested political beliefs and values may play a more important role in determining belief versus scepticism about climate change. The current research used two representative postal surveys of the UK public to: measure scepticism and uncertainty about climate change; determine how scepticism varies according to individual characteristics, knowledge and values; and examine how scepticism has changed over time. Findings show denial of climate change is less common than the perception that the issue has been exaggerated. Scepticism was found to be strongly determined by individuals’ environmental and political values (and indirectly by age, gender, location and lifestyle) rather than by education or knowledge. Between 2003 and 2008, public uncertainty about climate change has remained remarkably constant, although belief that claims about the issue are exaggerated has doubled over that period. These results are interpreted with reference to psychological concepts of motivated reasoning, confirmation bias and ‘finite pool of worry’. Implications for communication and policy are discussed. 相似文献
4.
两种不同减排情景下21世纪气候变化的数值模拟 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
利用国家气候中心最新发展的气候系统模式BCC-CSM1.0模拟了相对于B1排放情景,两种不同减排情景(De90和De07,表示按照B1情景排放到2012年,之后线性递减,至2050年时CO_2排放水平分别达到1990和2007年排放水平一半的情景)对全球和中国区域气候变化的影响.结果表明:两种减排情景下模式模拟的全球平均地表气温在21世纪40年代以后明显低于Bl情景,比减排情景浓度低于B1的时间延迟了20年左右;尽管De90减排情景在2050年所达到的稳定排放水平低于De07情景,但De90情景下的全球增温在2070年以后才一致低于De07情景,这种滞后町能与耦合系统(主要足海洋)的惯性有关;至21世纪末,De90和De07情景下的全球增温幅度分别比B1情景降低了0.4和0.2℃;从全球分布来看,B1情景下21世纪后30年的增温幅度在北半球高纬度和极地地区最大,减排情景能够显著减少这些地区的增温幅度,减排程度越大,则减少越多;在中国区域,B1情景下21世纪末平均增温比全球平均高约1.2℃,减排情景De90和De07分别比B1情景降低了0.4和0.3℃,中国北方地区增温幅度高于南方及沿海地区,减排情景能够显著减小中国西部地区的增温幅度;B1情景下21世纪后30年伞球增温在冬季最高,De90和De07情景分别能够降低各个季节全球升温幅度的17%和10%左右. 相似文献
5.
This study examined whether people living in the US connect their sensory experiences with local temperature to climate change and whether mass media influences the process. We used the volume of Twitter messages containing words “climate change” and “global warming” as the indicator of attention that public pays to the issue. Specifically, the goals were: (1) to investigate whether people immediately notice substantial local weather anomalies such as deviations from long-term mean temperatures and connect them to climate change by contributing to climate change discourse on Twitter and (2) to examine the role of mass media in this process. Over 2 million tweets were collected for a two-year period (2012–2013) and were assigned to 157 urban areas in the continental US. The rate of tweeting on climate change was regressed on the time variables, number of climate change publications in the mass media, and a number of temperature variables. The analysis was conducted at the two levels of aggregation – national and local. The high significance of the mass media and temperature variables in the majority of regression models suggests that both the weather and mass media coverage control public interest to the topic. However, no convincing evidence was found that the media acts as a mediator in the relationship between local weather and climate change discourse. Overall, the findings confirmed that the public recognize extreme temperature anomalies and connect these anomalies to climate change. 相似文献
6.
Public perceptions of climate change are traditionally measured through surveys. The exploding popularity of social networks, however, presents a new opportunity to research the spatiotemporal pattern of public discourse in relation to natural and/or socio-economic events. Among the social networks, Twitter is one of the largest microblogging services. The architecture of Twitter makes the question “what's happening?” the cornerstone of information exchange. This inspired the notion of using Twitter users as distributed sensors, which has been successfully employed in both the natural and social sciences. In 2012 and 2013, we collected 1.8 million tweets on “climate change” and “global warming” in five major languages (English, German, Russian, Portuguese, and Spanish). We discuss the geography of tweeting, weekly and daily patterns, major news events that affected tweeting on climate change, changes in the central topics of discussion over time, the most authoritative traditional media, blogging, and the most authoritative organizational sources of information on climate change referenced by Twitter users in different countries. We anticipate that social network mining will become a major source of data in the public discourse on climate change. 相似文献
7.
Weather services base their operational definitions of “present” climate on past observations, using a 30-year normal period
such as 1961–1990 or 1971–2000. In a world with ongoing global warming, however, past data give a biased estimate of the actual
present-day climate. Here we propose to correct this bias with a “delta change” method, in which model-simulated climate changes
and observed global mean temperature changes are used to extrapolate past observations forward in time, to make them representative
of present or future climate conditions. In a hindcast test for the years 1991–2002, the method works well for temperature,
with a clear improvement in verification statistics compared to the case in which the hindcast is formed directly from the
observations for 1961–1990. However, no improvement is found for precipitation, for which the signal-to-noise ratio between
expected anthropogenic changes and interannual variability is much lower than for temperature. An application of the method
to the present (around the year 2007) climate suggests that, as a geographical average over land areas excluding Antarctica,
8–9 months per year and 8–9 years per decade can be expected to be warmer than the median for 1971–2000. Along with the overall
warming, a substantial increase in the frequency of warm extremes at the expense of cold extremes of monthly-to-annual temperature
is expected. 相似文献
8.
Copenhagen 2009 was a major moment in the development of climate change as an issue. But climate sceptics before and during this event, sought to influence the nature of debate, and for this reason, the way Copenhagen was covered in the mass media was particularly important. This paper outlines the contours of contrarian arguments and claims, and assesses their reflection in the coverage at Copenhagen. The focus is on television, and extends to the assessment of internet - both modes of mass communication underrepresented in the existing literature. The results suggest a higher profile for contrarians and scepticism than is perhaps healthy, and speak to the role of these mass media, now and in the future, particularly with regard to the issue of public comprehension of the issues involved. 相似文献
9.
This study explores two pre-eminent features of transnational media coverage of climate change: The framing of climate change as a harmful, human-induced risk and the way that reporting handles contrarian voices in the climate debate. The analysis shows how journalists, and their interpretations and professional norms, shape media debates about climate change. The study links an analysis of media content to a survey of the authors of the respective articles. It covers leading print and online news outlets in Germany, India, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Switzerland. It finds that climate journalism has moved beyond the norm of balance towards a more interpretive pattern of journalism. Quoting contrarian voices still is part of transnational climate coverage, but these quotes are contextualized with a dismissal of climate change denial. Yet niches of denial persist in certain contexts, and much journalistic attention is focused on the narrative of ‘warners vs. deniers,’ and overlooks the more relevant debates about climate change. 相似文献
10.
Climate scientists overwhelmingly agree that the Earth is getting warmer and that the rise in average global temperature is predominantly due to human activity. Yet a significant proportion of the American public, as well as a considerable number of legislators in the U.S. Congress, continue to reject the “consensus view.” While the source of the disagreement is varied, one prominent explanation centres on the activities of a coordinated and well-funded countermovement of climate sceptics. This study contributes to the literature on organized climate scepticism by providing the first systematic overview of conservative think tank sceptical discourse in nearly 15 years. Specifically, we (1) compile the largest corpus of contrarian literature to date, collecting over 16,000 documents from 19 organizations over the period 1998–2013; (2) introduce a methodology to measure key themes in the corpus which scales to the substantial increase in content generated by conservative think tanks over the past decade; and (3) leverage this new methodology to shed light on the relative prevalence of science- and policy-related discussion among conservative think tanks. We find little support for the claim that “the era of science denial is over”—instead, discussion of climate science has generally increased over the sample period. 相似文献
11.
Building upon recent work on other major fossil fuel companies, we report new archival research and primary source interviews describing how Total responded to evolving climate science and policy in the last 50 years. We show that Total personnel received warnings of the potential for catastrophic global warming from its products by 1971, became more fully informed of the issue in the 1980s, began promoting doubt regarding the scientific basis for global warming by the late 1980s, and ultimately settled on a position in the late 1990s of publicly accepting climate science while promoting policy delay or policies peripheral to fossil fuel control. Additionally, we find that Exxon, through the International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association (IPIECA), coordinated an international campaign to dispute climate science and weaken international climate policy, beginning in the 1980s. This represents one of the first longitudinal studies of a major fossil fuel company’s responses to global warming to the present, describing historical stages of awareness, preparation, denial, and delay. 相似文献
12.
西北太平洋热带气旋气候变化的若干研究进展 总被引：13，自引：11，他引：2
热带气旋气候变化研究不仅是当前国际热带气旋气候界的热点科学问题,而且也是具有现实意义的社会问题,各国气象学者和科学家们对此进行了广泛的研究。虽然热带气旋活动与气候变化之间的关系及其相应的内在物理机制至今还处在探究之中,但是近20多年来热带气旋气候学的研究还是取得了显著的进展。本文主要针对濒临中国的西北太平洋海域,回顾了热带气旋活动季节内、年际、年代际变化及其全球变暖背景下的变化趋势的气候学研究。此外,文中也对西北太平洋热带气旋气候学的研究进行了展望,并提出了该领域中一些亟待解决的科学问题。 相似文献
13.
IPCC SROCC和AR6对高山区气候变化的评估表明,近期全球山地增暖速率提高,1980年代以来亚洲高山区增暖速率明显高于全球平均和其他高山区同期水平。各山地增暖普遍具有海拔依赖性,但机制复杂且区域差异大,除落基山脉未来气温增幅随海拔降低外,其余山地均随海拔有不同程度的升高。全球山地年降水在过去几十年没有明显趋势;预计未来北半球许多山地年降水将增加5%~20%,但极端降水变化的区域和季节差异较大,其中青藏高原喜马拉雅山脉极端降水频次和强度都将增大。山地年最大雪水当量的减少在固-液态降水转化的海拔高度带更强,未来山地降雪和积雪变化不仅与排放情景有关,而且与海拔高度密切相关。2010—2019年全球山地冰川物质亏损较有观测记录以来的任何一个10年都多,亚洲高山区虽然冰川物质亏损速率较小,但每年亏损的冰量在全球四大高山区中仅次于安第斯山脉南段。预计山地冰川将持续退缩数十年或数百年,未来亚洲高山区冰川退缩对海平面上升的贡献将居全球四大高山区之首。山地多年冻土温度升高、厚度减薄,预计未来多年冻土将加速退化,即使在低温室气体排放情景下,21世纪末青藏高原多年冻土面积预计也将减少13.4%~27.7%。从评估的完整性和信度水平来看,山地观测和研究仍存在巨大差距。 相似文献
14.
A growing body of research documents how individuals respond to local impacts of global climate change and a range of policy efforts aim to help individuals reduce their exposure and improve their livelihoods despite these stressors. Yet there is still limited understanding of how to determine whether and how adaptation is occurring. Through qualitative analysis of focus group interviews, I evaluated individual behavioral responses to local forest stressors that can arguably be linked to global climate change among landowners in the Upper Midwest, USA. I found that landowner responses were planned as well as autonomous, more proactive than reactive, incremental rather than transformational, and aimed at being resilient to change and transitioning to new conditions, rather than resisting change alone. Many of the landowners’ responses can be considered forms of adaptation, rather than coping, because they were aimed at moderating and avoiding harm on long time horizons in anticipation of change. These findings stand in contrast to the short-term, reactive, and incremental responses that current socio-psychological theories of adaptation suggest are more typical at the individual level. This study contributes to scientific understanding of how to evaluate behavioral adaptation to climate change and differentiate it from coping, which is necessary for developing conceptually rigorous analytical frameworks to guide research and policy. 相似文献
15.
用 IAP／LASG GOALS模式模拟CO2增加引起的东亚地区气候变化 总被引：19，自引：0，他引：19
Two simulations, one for the control run and another for the perturbation run, with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system model (IAP / LASG GOALS version 4) have been carried out to study the global warming, with much detailed emphasis on East Asia. Results indicate that there is no climate drift in the control run and at the time of CO2 doubling the global temperature increases about 1.65℃. The GOALS model is able to simulate the observed spatial distribution and annual cycles of temperature and precipitation for East Asia quite well. But, in general, the model underestimates temperature and overestimates rainfall amount for regional annual average. For the climate change in East Asia, the temperature and precipitation in East Asia increase 2. l℃ and 5% respectively, and the maximum warming occurs at middle-latitude continent and the maximum precipitation increase occurs around 25°N with reduced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific. 相似文献
16.
Mechanisms for the land/sea warming contrast exhibited by simulations of climate change 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
Manoj M. Joshi Jonathan M. Gregory Mark J. Webb David M. H. Sexton Tim C. Johns 《Climate Dynamics》2008,30(5):455-465
The land/sea warming contrast is a phenomenon of both equilibrium and transient simulations of climate change: large areas
of the land surface at most latitudes undergo temperature changes whose amplitude is more than those of the surrounding oceans.
Using idealised GCM experiments with perturbed SSTs, we show that the land/sea contrast in equilibrium simulations is associated
with local feedbacks and the hydrological cycle over land, rather than with externally imposed radiative forcing. This mechanism
also explains a large component of the land/sea contrast in transient simulations as well. We propose a conceptual model with
three elements: (1) there is a spatially variable level in the lower troposphere at which temperature change is the same over
land and sea; (2) the dependence of lapse rate on moisture and temperature causes different changes in lapse rate upon warming
over land and sea, and hence a surface land/sea temperature contrast; (3) moisture convergence over land predominantly takes
place at levels significantly colder than the surface; wherever moisture supply over land is limited, the increase of evaporation
over land upon warming is limited, reducing the relative humidity in the boundary layer over land, and hence also enhancing
the land/sea contrast. The non-linearity of the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship of saturation specific humidity to temperature
is critical in (2) and (3). We examine the sensitivity of the land/sea contrast to model representations of different physical
processes using a large ensemble of climate model integrations with perturbed parameters, and find that it is most sensitive
to representation of large-scale cloud and stomatal closure. We discuss our results in the context of high-resolution and
Earth-system modelling of climate change. 相似文献
17.
全球变暖中的科学问题 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
2013年各国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第一工作组发布了第五次气候变化科学评估报告,以大量的观测分析和气候模式模拟证据,继续强调由于人类排放增加,全球正在变暖,未来将继续变暖的观点。本文综述研究全球变暖的几个深层次的科学问题,即多套全球气温观测资料的差异、不同标准气候态时段的作用、20世纪全球变暖的检测和归因及未来全球气温变化的走向,以此提出需进一步研究的科学问题。结果表明;需要进一步提高观测资料的质量;注意不同标准气候态时段对应的数值的不同;应进一步改善气候模式模拟年代际变率的能力及研究近15 a全球变暖减缓和停滞的原因,从而改善气候模式的模拟效果;造成预估未来全球气候变化的不确定性主要来自气候模式的差异、未来排放情景的差异及气候系统内部变率影响和自然外强迫的作用。 相似文献
18.
全球变暖背景下中国东部气候变迁及其对物候的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
鉴于我国东部地区对全球气候变化的高度敏感性,本文应用1960~2014年的CRU和HadISST等全球地表（地球表面的简称,包括陆地和海洋表面,下同）温度再分析资料,采用地理等温线和春、秋季（代表月地表温度）时间的变迁速度等指标,分析了全球和中国东部地区的气候变化速度以及春、秋季物候的变化。结果显示:（1）自1960年以来,全球地表温度呈现十分清晰的上升趋势,其中,北半球（陆地）比南半球（海洋）变暖更显著,地理等温线向两极方向迁移;（2）南、北半球的春（秋）季明显提前（滞后）;（3）中国东部地表温度呈快速上升趋势,陆地升温虽普遍快于海洋,但东部海域升温快于相邻的陆地,地理等温线总体向北迁移,海域的春、秋季物候变化较陆地显著;（4）中国东部生物物候受气候变化影响明显,海域地理等温线的北移受到沿岸地形的抑制,海洋生物适应气候变化的能力受到限制,海洋生态系统及生物多样性将面临气候变化带来的显著风险。 相似文献
19.
辽河流域属于气候变暖较为显著区域,增温幅度比全球和全国的增温幅度都要高。同时辽河流域也是水资源较为匮乏且需求量大的地区,因此气候变化对水资源影响问题也更值得关注。基于长期历史观测气象水文数据和未来不同情景下气候变化预估资料,建立评估气候变化与径流量的关系,预估未来气候变化对径流量的可能影响,为辽河流域应对气候变化决策提供科学依据。结果表明:1961—2020年,辽河流域气温为持续上升趋势,降水没有明显的增减趋势,但存在阶段性变化;辽河流域降水量与径流量有较好的相关关系,具有较为一致的长期变化趋势与特征,年降水量与径流量相关数达到0.6以上。日降水量与径流量相关分析表明,降水发生后次日且为大雨降水等级(即日降水量≥25 mm)时,两者相关系数可高达0.85;敏感性试验和模式模拟试验表明,径流量对气候变化有明显的响应,降水增加(减少)、气温降低(升高),则径流量增加(减少);在未来RCP8.5排放情景下气温升高趋势最为明显,未来径流量也为显著增加趋势;RCP2.6排放情景下气温增加的幅度最小,未来径流量也表现为无明显增减趋势;RCP4.5情景下,气温增加的幅度居中,未来径流量则为减少趋势。 相似文献
20.
Mass media in the U.S. continue to suggest that scientific consensus estimates of global climate disruption, such as those from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are “exaggerated” and overly pessimistic. By contrast, work on the Asymmetry of Scientific Challenge (ASC) suggests that such consensus assessments are likely to understate climate disruptions. This paper offers an initial test of the competing expectations, making use of the tendency for science to be self-correcting, over time. Rather than relying in any way on the IPCC process, the paper draws evidence about emerging science from four newspapers that have been found in past work to be biased against reporting IPCC findings, consistently reporting instead that scientific findings are “in dispute.” The analysis considers two time periods — one during the time when the papers were found to be overstating challenges to then-prevailing scientific consensus, and the other focusing on 2008, after the IPCC and former Vice-President Gore shared the Nobel Prize for their work on climate disruption, and before opinion polls showed the U.S. public to be growing more skeptical toward climate science once again. During both periods, new scientific findings were more than twenty times as likely to support the ASC perspective than the usual framing of the issue in the U.S. mass media. The findings indicate that supposed challenges to the scientific consensus on global warming need to be subjected to greater scrutiny, as well as showing that, if reporters wish to discuss “both sides” of the climate issue, the scientifically legitimate “other side” is that, if anything, global climate disruption may prove to be significantly worse than has been suggested in scientific consensus estimates to date. 相似文献