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1.
Junguo Liu Chuanfu Zang Shiying Tian Jianguo Liu Hong Yang Shaofeng Jia Liangzhi You Bo Liu Miao Zhang 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(3):633-643
China's water policies in the past decades have relied heavily on the construction of massive water conservancy projects in the form of dams and reservoirs, water transfer projects, and irrigation infrastructure. These facilities have brought tremendous economic and social benefits but also posed many adverse impacts on the eco-environment and society. With the intensification of water scarcity, China's future water conservancy development is facing tremendous challenge of supporting the continuous economic development while protecting the water resources and the dependent ecosystems. This paper provides an overview of China's water conservancy development, and illustrates the socioeconomic, environmental and ecological impacts. A narrative of attitude changes of the central government towards water conservancy, as well as key measures since the 1950s is presented. The strategic water resources management plan set by the central government in its Document No. 1 of 2011 is elaborated with focus on the three stringent controlling “redlines” concerning national water use, water use efficiency and water pollution and the huge investments poised to finance their implementation. We emphasize that realizing the goals set in the strategic plan requires paradigm shifts of the water conservancy development towards maximizing economic and natural capitals, prioritizing investment to preserve intact ecosystems and to restore degraded ecosystems, adapting climate change, balancing construction of new water projects and rejuvenation of existing projects, and managing both “blue” (surface/groundwater) and “green” water (soil water). 相似文献
2.
The role of women's participation in community forestry has recently been investigated in a number of theoretical and empirical papers. This paper takes an existing theoretical framework developed by Agarwal (2001) and applies it to examine two questions: (1) What determines women's participation in forestry institutions? and (2) What effect does women's participation have on institutional outcomes (such as levels of conflict and rule fairness)? To answer these questions data is used from two sources: (1) a detailed household survey conducted with 1.433 households in Bolivia, Kenya, Mexico, and Uganda and (2) a more aggregated dataset from forest associations investigated by the International Forestry Resources and Institutions (IFRI) program in 10 countries. The analyses suggest that women's participation is likely when institutions exist that are less exclusionary, when households have more education, and when there is small economic inequality in general and across genders in particular. A history of women's participation, especially when women are seated on forest councils or attain leadership positions, is highly correlated with less disruptive conflict. 相似文献
3.
Meeting human needs at sustainable levels of energy use is fundamental for avoiding catastrophic climate change and securing the well-being of all people. In the current political-economic regime, no country does so. Here, we assess which socio-economic conditions might enable societies to satisfy human needs at low energy use, to reconcile human well-being with climate mitigation.Using a novel analytical framework alongside a novel multivariate regression-based moderation approach and data for 106 countries, we analyse how the relationship between energy use and six dimensions of human need satisfaction varies with a wide range of socio-economic factors relevant to the provisioning of goods and services ('provisioning factors'). We find that factors such as public service quality, income equality, democracy, and electricity access are associated with higher need satisfaction and lower energy requirements (‘beneficial provisioning factors’). Conversely, extractivism and economic growth beyond moderate levels of affluence are associated with lower need satisfaction and greater energy requirements (‘detrimental provisioning factors’). Our results suggest that improving beneficial provisioning factors and abandoning detrimental ones could enable countries to provide sufficient need satisfaction at much lower, ecologically sustainable levels of energy use.However, as key pillars of the required changes in provisioning run contrary to the dominant political-economic regime, a broader transformation of the economic system may be required to prioritise, and organise provisioning for, the satisfaction of human needs at low energy use. 相似文献
4.
This article develops a new framework for understanding environment-conflict relations, on both theoretical grounds and through a qualitative historical analysis of the links between water and conflict in the states of Sudan and South Sudan. Theoretically, the article critiques the dominant emphases on ‘scarcity’, ‘state failure’ and ‘under-development’ within discussions of environmental security, and proposes an alternative model of environment-conflict relations centring on resource abundance and globally-embedded processes of state-building and development. Empirically, it examines three claimed (or possible) linkages between water and conflict in the Sudans: over trans-boundary waters of the Nile; over the links between internal resource scarcities and civil conflict; and over the internal conflict impacts of water abundance and development. We find that there exists only limited evidence in support of the first two of these linkages, but plentiful evidence that water abundance, and state-directed processes of economic development and internal colonisation relating to water, have had violent consequences. We conclude that analysts and policymakers should pay more attention to the impacts of resource abundance, militarised state power and global political economic forces in their assessments of the potential conflict impacts of environmental and especially climate change. 相似文献
5.
Changes are considered in the runoff regime of Russian rivers and in the water inflow to reservoirs as a result of the climate warming observed in the country since the second half of the 1970s. Based on the analysis of long–term observational data on water inflow to 41 large reservoirs with the volume of 10 x 106 m3, it is shown that considerable changes in its intraannual distribution have occurred in the recent decades. These changes are characterized, in particular, by the inflow increase during the cold season and by the runoff variability increasing in winter and summer–autumn seasons. The growth of the number of severe hydrological events, especially of flash floods induced by rainfalls, has been registered in the recent decades. Potential future changes in water inflow to reservoirs are considered in accordance with the scenarios of further climate warming. It is justified that rules of using water resources of reservoirs should be corrected taking into account the observed changes in the river water inflow regime. 相似文献
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7.
Abstract This article analyses the national circumstances and major factors underpinning China's energy demand and supply, energy-related emissions, and consequently China's sustainable development. These factors include the huge, still growing, and aging population, rapid economic growth, ongoing industrialization and urbanization, environmental and health concerns at local, regional and global level. Against such background analysis, the article explores the potential and constraints of non-fossil fuel, fuel-switching to natural gas, economy restructuring and clean coal technology in mitigating emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and ensuring energy supply in China. The authors reiterate the importance of improving energy efficiency in China and discuss how to integrate renewable energy into rural development. The article concludes with an in-depth discussion about redefining development goals, the equity issue in climate change process, and the linkage with sustainable development. 相似文献
8.
由于经济发展的复杂性,本文旨在探索由环境变迁引发这一动态、复杂而又相互作用的过程,通过引入环境变迁与经济成长两方面因素分析其中的潜在关联性,并将区域稳定性作为环境变迁与经济成长相互作用后的衡量指标,来评估该过程.1）通过使用衡量国家经济健康程度的健康性与复杂性（Fitness and Complexity）算法,获得了新的评估国家经济成长的国家经济健康性系数,该系数能在竞争激烈的动态国际贸易环境下有更好预测GDP的表现.随后建立机器学习模型,成功预测了不同国家的稳定性类别,且预测精度都在90％左右.2）实现了基于数据的环境变迁和区域经济成长的关联性可视化分析,通过分析能够得到潜在关联性结论：一些发展中国家经济稳定性与水资源和二氧化碳排放呈强关联,而发达国家则与人均耕地面积有关联.3）设立评估国家稳定性的新指标,与世界主流指标相比,构建的新指标更注重原始数据的量化,减少了概念抽象的指标对预测性能的影响,且在评估区域经济成长时能更符合当前国际的实际经济情况.本文提出的评估区域稳定性的新排名是完全基于量化指标的,因此更容易实现,说服力更强.通过实际的预测效果分析,该新排名在衡量区域稳定性时弥补了世界主流排名由抽象指标带来的预测失真缺陷,能够满足基本的区域稳定性预测功能,并且能够对预测结果造成影响的主要因素进行解释. 相似文献
9.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(6):577-587
Growing international trade has been one of the most important drivers for China's recent economic growth. This growth has fed rapid increases in energy demand and carbon emissions since 2000. China is now the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide. There is mounting pressure from some in the international community for China to take specific actions to mitigate its emissions as part of a post-2012 climate regime. However, emissions embodied in internationally traded goods have not been given enough attention in this debate. This article discusses the results of research to quantify the emissions stemming from goods that are exported from China to other countries. It finds that these emissions accounted for 23% of China's national total in 2004. The article sets out how this result has been obtained and compares it to the results of several other pieces of research to demonstrate the importance of this issue. Some pointers for international climate policy are then discussed, including the advantages and difficulties of moving to consumption-based emissions accounting, and implications for international trade rules. 相似文献
10.
Adaptation is a complex, dynamic, and sometimes unequal process. Stemming from social ecological systems theories of climate change adaptation and adaptive capacity, this case study introduces the concept of ‘divergent’ adaptation. Adaptation is divergent when one user or group's adaptation causes a subsequent reduction in another user or group's adaptive capacity in the same ecosystem. Using the example of pastoral and agricultural groups in northern and southern rainfall zones of Niger, this study illustrates the concept of divergent adaptation by identifying changes to the adaptive capacity of users who are currently engaged in conflicts over access to natural resources. Similar to other studies, we find that expansion of farmland and the consequent loss of pastoral space are restricting pastoral adaptation. Divergent adaptations favoring agricultural livelihoods include cultivating near or around pastoral wells or within pastoral corridors, both of which limit the mobility and entitlements of pastoralists. Institutions rarely secure pastoral routes and access to water points, a problem that is compounded by conflicting modes of governance, low accountability, and corruption. The case study illustrates the need to enhance the adaptive capacity of multiple user groups to reduce conflict, enhance human security, and promote overall resilience. 相似文献
11.
Policy agendas increasingly respond to the perceived security threats of climate change, not least via its effects on water. Yet, solid links between climate, water, conflict and security have seldom been substantiated empirically. Drawing from the conceptual framework and empirical results of the EC-funded research project CLICO (‘Climate Change, Hydro-Conflict and Human Security’) which is presented in this Special Issue, this opening article looks at the conditions that shape conflict and insecurity, with a focus on the role of adaptation policies. We find three main sources of human insecurity: first, democratic deficits, which are more influential than hydro-climatic stresses; second, mal-adaptations, i.e. adaptations that have adverse effects for the security of some groups; and third, structural violence, often related to economic and state development. There is a systemic contradiction insofar as the pursuit of adaptation through state-led economic growth projects ends up producing new insecurities for parts of the population. Adaptation to hydro-climatic change, therefore, is likely to be a contested and painful process. Research on security and climate change must move beyond narrow investigations of conflict and study the links between structural violence and human insecurity, in particular the conditions and processes that reduce the options available to deal with potential insecurities. 相似文献
12.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):211-227
Abstract This paper assesses five options for targets that could be taken by all countries to meet the ultimate objective of the climate change convention: fixed, binding targets; dynamic targets; non-binding targets; sectoral targets; policies and measures. Each is evaluated according to criteria of environmental effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, contribution to economic growth and sustainable development, and equity. While fixed, binding targets continue to be viable for industrialised countries, they do not seem suitable for many developing countries in the near future. Dynamic targets could alleviate developing countries' concerns about constraining their development as well as broader concerns about possible introduction of “hot air” in a world trading regime; they could also be considered for some or all industrialised countries. Non-binding targets could be politically appealing to developing countries, alleviate fears about development and/or hot air, but might only allow conditional participation in emissions trading by developing countries. Sectoral targets could offer a pragmatic first step—although their cost-effectiveness might be questioned. Finally, targets based on commitments to implement specific policies and measures might drive mitigation action and be part of negotiated packages including financial and technological co-operation. All these options may coexist in the future. 相似文献
13.
Matthew Bunce Laurence Mee Lynda D. Rodwell Richard Gibb 《Global Environmental Change》2009,19(2):213-226
Few studies consider how social-ecological systems recover from disturbance. We consider the small semi-autonomous island of Rodrigues (Indian Ocean). Based on semi-structured interviews (n = 70), a fisher survey (n = 73), weather data and official records we build a timeline of key events. We tabulate local perceptions (5+ mentions) of changes (social, economic and natural capital) and look for signs of adaptive cycles in the island's social-ecological past. Rising human pressure and extreme weather event impacts are reported since first settlement. We propose a recent “collapse” phase catalysed in the 1970s by severe drought, based on respondents’ perceptions of still-ongoing changes in farming and fishing, water, external dependence, migration and inter-island political change. Connectivity (flows of people, goods, information, money, power) appear to have strengthed local island recovery, but degradation continued, not least due to water scarcity and a lack of shared political vision as Rodrigues became more tied into the wider world.Overall, our findings suggest social-ecological systems may get stuck in a post-collapse recovery without any new structure emerging, presuming adaptive cycles can even be detected. Data gaps and global change redefining spatial and temporal scales could mean the adaptive cycle's usefulness is limited in development policy-making contexts. 相似文献
14.
Data of the State Observation Network on the water run-off for the whole observation period and on water levels in the delta
of the Volga River for the period of regulated run-off regime (1961–2006) are analyzed. Periods of various water content are
revealed and the current tendency of long-term run-off changes is established with the help of difference-integral curve of
recovered natural annual run-off. Periods of various degree of man’s impact on the run-off, entering the delta of the Volga
River, are marked out. The role of irretrievable anthropogenic loss and the influence of run-off regulation on its intraannual
distribution are assessed. Regularities of seasonal and long-term water level changes in the delta of the Volga River are
revealed. The run-off regulation effect on the intraannual distribution of water levels is assessed. The influence of the
water divider on the redistribution of the run-off and water levels in the delta is shown. The effect of the current increase
in the Caspian Sea level on the penetration of the backwater into the delta of the Volga River is revealed. 相似文献
15.
Throughout history settlements have been abandoned due to lack of water. Such a fate is of concern to public officials in settlements facing water scarcity - a condition which is anticipated to increase due to the impacts of climate change, and other factors including increasing per capita water use, and population growth. Key questions surround how to best adapt to these circumstances. A strategy little explored is relocation. This paper presents results from a qualitative study conducted in eight geographically diverse Australian locations. The willingness of individuals to relocate under three hypothetical water scenarios was investigated: (1) if the water in their community ran out, (2) if recycled wastewater was put in their community's drinking water supply, and (3) if desalinated water was put in their community's drinking water supply. Results indicate that most people would not relocate if recycled or desalinated water was used to augment their community's drinking water supply, but they would if their water supply ran out. Our results highlight that while there is initial public opposition to the augmentation of existing potable water supplies with recycled or desalinated water, people would prefer these solutions, over being forced to move location. Respondents were highly aware of the social, economic and public infrastructure costs associated with relocation decisions. Relocation would therefore, for most, only be the very last option if their water demands could not be met. However, it was difficult for most to imagine the situation becoming so dire. Our results highlight the importance of a comprehensive and consultative approach to managing supply in water scarce locations. 相似文献
16.
Equity has been at the core of the global climate debate since its inception over two decades ago, yet the current negotiations toward an international climate agreement in 2015 provide a new and critical opportunity to make forward progress on the difficult web of equity issues. These negotiations and the discussions about equity are taking place in a context that has shifted: all countries will be covered under a new agreement; growing climate impacts are being felt, especially by the most vulnerable; and there is an emergence of new institutions and increasing complexity in the international climate regime. Innovative thinking on equity, including which countries should take action and how, is therefore essential to finalizing an agreement by 2015. A broader, deeper, and more holistic view of equity is necessary, one that sees equity as a multi-dimensional challenge to be solved across all the facets of the international climate process.Policy relevanceThis article is relevant to policy makers following the development of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform as it prepares the way for a new agreement in 2015. The article focuses specifically on the issues most relevant to the debate around equity in the negotiations and how that debate is evolving with the expansion of the UNFCCC. It explains the current state of the negotiations and what issues are on the negotiating table, including the fact that negotiations on equity are now much broader than the mitigation commitments, to include the possible ‘equity reference framework’, concerns relating to adaptation and loss and damage, and the need for ambition in terms of mitigation and finance support. 相似文献
17.
《Global Environmental Change》2007,17(1):37-46
Assessment panels need to communicate scientific uncertainty, and often face choices about how to simplify or synthesize it. One important distinction is between uncertainty that has been modeled, and that which derives from disagreement among experts. From an economic decision-making perspective the two are in many ways logically equivalent, yet from psychological and social perspectives they are quite different. An experiment on the communication of climate change uncertainty suggests that the two framings of uncertainty differentially influence people's estimates of likelihood and their motivation to take responsive action. It is recommended that assessment panels pay close attention to the social features of uncertainty, such as conflict between experts. 相似文献
18.
Australia's vulnerability to climate variability and change has been highlighted by the recent drought (i.e. the Big Dry or Millennium Drought), and also recent flooding across much of eastern Australia during 2011 and 2012. There is also the possibility that the frequency, intensity and duration of droughts may increase due to anthropogenic climate change, stressing the need for robust drought adaptation strategies. This study investigates the socio-economic impacts of drought, past and present drought adaptation measures, and the future adaptation strategies required to deal with projected impacts of climate change. The qualitative analysis presented records the actual experiences of drought and other climatic extremes and helps advance knowledge of how best to respond and adapt to such conditions, and how this might vary between different locations, sectors and communities. It was found that more effort is needed to address the changing environment and climate, by shifting from notions of ‘drought-as-crisis’ towards acknowledging the variable availability of water and that multi-year droughts should not be unexpected, and may even become more frequent. Action should also be taken to revalue the farming enterprise as critical to our environmental, economic and cultural well-being and there was also strong consensus that the value of water should be recognised in a more meaningful way (i.e. not just in economic terms). Finally, across the diverse stakeholders involved in the research, one point was consistently reiterated: that ‘it's not just drought’. Exacerbating the issues of climate impacts on water security and supply is the complexity of the agriculture industry, global economics (in particular global markets and the recent/ongoing global financial crisis), and demographic changes (decreasing and ageing populations) which are currently occurring across most rural communities. The social and economic issues facing rural communities are not just a product of drought or climate change – to understand them as such would underestimate the extent of the problems and inhibit the ability to coordinate the holistic, cross-agency approach needed for successful climate change adaptation in rural communities. 相似文献
19.
S L Cutter 《Global Environmental Change》1995,5(3):181-194
The author posits that women and children bear a disproportionate burden of environmental degradation and are in the worst position to mitigate the consequences of deteriorating environmental conditions. This article discusses the concept of environmental equity or fairness and its sociospatial impacts and the different adjustments made by women and children. Environmental equity is both an outcome and a process. Process equity includes the underlying causes of uneven distributions of resources. The 1992 Rio Declaration on Environment and Development defines 27 specific principles that broadly follow three forms of equity: social equity, generational equity, and procedural equity. Social equity is defined as the role of social, economic, and political forces in resource consumption and environmental degradation. Environmental risk is related to locational criteria such as cheap land and transportation access and by the social geography of places. Hazardous waste dumping is used to illustrate inequitable waste disposal in developing countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria, Lebanon, Syria, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, and South Korea. Generational equity is defined as fairness over time. The issue of permanent radioactive waste disposal is a current issue that has implications for future generations. Three strategies are important in assuring generational equity: the maintenance of natural and cultural diversity; a reduction in environmental degradation; and the provision of equal access to resources. Preservation of parkland is a positive strategy and lack of access to health services and reproductive health care is a negative strategy. Procedural equity is defined as the extent to which regulations are applied fairly. The example is given of higher fines for dumping waste in "nice White communities" compared to minority ones. Environmental law regulating hazardous waste exports has been minimally effective. Women and children are affected by particulate pollution and environmental toxins (lead and pesticides) in the air and water of urban areas and by a composite of poverty, development, and urbanization. 相似文献
20.
Racing climate change: Collaboration and conflict in California's global climate change policy arena
Jonathan London Alex Karner Julie Sze Dana Rowan Gerardo Gambirazzio Deb Niemeier 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(4):791-799
Media accounts routinely refer to California's Assembly Bill 32 (AB 32), the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, as “landmark” climate change legislation. On its surface, this label is an accurate reflection of the state's forward-thinking stance across many environmental issues including pesticides, toxic substances, solid waste, and air quality. For all its promise, however, AB 32 can also be considered a low point in the landscape of conflict between state environmental regulators and California's environmental justice movement. While the legislation included several provisions to address the procedural and distributive dimensions of environmental justice, the implementation of AB 32 has been marked by heated conflict. The most intense conflicts over AB 32 revolve around the primacy of market mechanisms such as “cap and trade.” This article examines the drivers and the manifestations of these dynamics of collaboration and conflict between environmental justice advocates and state regulators, and pays particular attention to the scalar and racialized quality of the neoliberal discourse. The contentiousness of climate change politics in California offers scholars and practitioners around the world a cautionary tale of how the best intentions for integrating environmental justice principles into climate change policy do not necessarily translate into implementation and how underlying racialized fractures can upend collaboration between state and social movement actors. 相似文献