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1.
Toward integrated assessment of environmental change: air pollution health effects in the USA 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
We demonstrate a method for integrating environmental effects into a computable general equilibrium model. This is a critical
step forward toward the development of improved integrated assessment models of environmental change. We apply the method
to examine the economic consequences of air pollution on human health for the US for the period from 1970 to 2000. The pollutants
include tropospheric ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and particulate matter. We apply this method
to the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the economy that
has been widely used to study climate change policy. The method makes use of traditional valuation studies, incorporating
this information so that estimates of welfare change are consistent with welfare valuation of the consumption of market goods
and services. We estimate the benefits of air pollution regulations in USA rose steadily from 1975 to 2000 from $50 billion
to $400 billion (from 2.1% to 7.6% of market consumption). Our estimated benefits of regulation are somewhat lower than the
original estimates made by the US Environmental Protection Agency, and we trace that result to our development of a stock
model of pollutant exposure that predicts that the benefits from reduced chronic air pollution exposure will only be gradually
realized. We also estimate the economic burden of uncontrolled levels of air pollution over that period. The uncertainties
in these estimates are large which we show through simulations using 95% confidence limits on the epidemiological dose-response
relationships 相似文献
2.
Marco Springmann 《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):20-42
In order to address carbon leakage and preserve the competitiveness of domestic industries, some industrialized Annex I countries have proposed to implement carbon tariffs. These tariffs would be levied on energy-intensive imports from developing non-Annex I countries that have not agreed to binding emissions reductions. This action could have detrimental welfare impacts, especially on those developing countries, and may not lead to significant reductions in leakage. A recent proposal is to use the revenues generated from carbon tariffs to finance clean development in the relevant exporting non-Annex I countries. This proposal is evaluated using an energy-economic model of the global economy. The model is supplemented by marginal abatement cost curves and bottom-up information on abatement potentials in order to represent how clean development financing affects emissions reductions. The results indicate that carbon tariffs could raise US$3.5–24.5 billion (with a central value of $9.8 billion) for clean development financing. This could reduce the emissions of non-Annex I countries by 5–15% and still leave funds available for other purposes, such as adaptation. Furthermore, recycling the revenues generated from carbon tariffs back to the exporting country itself could alleviate some of the negative welfare impacts associated with them. However, a net negative impact especially on the welfare and gross domestic product of developing countries would remain. 相似文献
3.
“一带一路”沿线国家2020—2060年人口经济发展情景预测 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文应用IPCC共享社会经济路径(SSPs),开展“一带一路”沿线国家的人口和经济情景预测,研究可持续路径(SSP1)、中间路径(SSP2)、区域竞争路径(SSP3)、不均衡路径(SSP4)和化石燃料为主发展路径(SSP5)下,“一带一路”沿线国家社会经济的变化趋势,构建“一带一路”沿线国家人口和经济发展情景数据库,服务于气候变化影响、风险、适应和减缓路径方案设计。研究表明：(1)2016年“一带一路”沿线国家总人口占全球人口的62.3%,GDP总量占全球的31.2%。其中“21世纪海上丝绸之路”经过的东南亚和南亚地区经济总量大,但人口密集,人均GDP较低;“丝绸之路经济带”涵盖的中亚、西亚、东欧等地区人口密度小,经济相对发达。(2)“一带一路”沿线国家未来人口和经济整体呈增长趋势,但不同的社会经济发展政策对人口经济变化有重大影响。不同的SSPs路径下,2060年人口将比2016年水平增加3.3亿(SSP5)~18.3亿(SSP3),经济总量达到2016年水平的3.0（SSP3)~6.4倍(SSP5)。人口占全球总量的比重持续减少,经济比重则有所增加。(3)21世纪中期(2051—2060年),“一带一路”沿线国家平均人口密度约95人/km2,GDP约164万美元/km2。不同社会经济发展政策间人口经济分布有一定差异,SSP3路径下大部分国家人口增长迅速,但经济发展缓慢,人均GDP多低于2万美元;SSP5路径下人口相对较少,经济发展迅速,大多数国家人均GDP超过2.5万美元;其他3种路径下人口经济发展介于SSP3和SSP5之间。 相似文献
4.
国家自主贡献文件是《巴黎协定》后发展中国家气候资金需求信息的重要载体。发展中国家的气候资金需求日益增长,而发达国家提供的气候资金存在的不平衡与不充分等问题,已成为当前气候资金议题的主要矛盾。因此,本文依据最新的151份发展中国家的国家自主贡献文件,深入分析发展中国家自主提出的未来气候资金需求,并评估了各国自主贡献资金需求的合理性。研究发现,151个发展中国家中有84个国家提出具体的国家自主贡献资金需求,其国家自主贡献时间框架内的资金需求总值达4.4万亿美元;分析48个同时提出减缓与适应资金需求以及21个同时提出国内与国外资金需求国家的国家自主贡献文件得到,发展中国家资金需求类别中用于减缓与适应的资金需求比例约为6?4,国外资金需求与国内资金需求比值约为7?3;基于国家自主贡献文件估算的发展中国家累积减排量到2030年约119 Gt CO2-eq,自主贡献减排成本平均值为50美元/ t CO2-eq;发展中国家2015—2030年国家自主贡献资金需求预期为1万亿~4万亿美元,年均700亿~2600亿美元,其中国际资金需求为0.7万亿~2.8万亿美元,年均500亿~1900亿美元。 相似文献
5.
There is increasing interest in the water–food nexus, especially the restrictive effect of water on food production in hot spots where irrigation stress is growing. However, little is known about the larger-scale implications of future irrigation shortfalls for global trade and economic welfare, as well as of the potential buffering impacts of international trade on the local impacts of irrigation shortage. In this paper, we utilize a recently developed model, GTAP-BIO-W, to study the economic effects of changes in irrigation outlook for 126 river basins, globally by 2030. Projected irrigation availability is obtained from the IMPACT-WATER model, and imposed upon the present-day economy. Irrigation availability in 2030 is expected to drop by 30–60% in several key rivers basins, including: Hai He, Indus, Luni, and the Eastern Mediterranean basin, leading to significant output declines in China, South Asia, and the Middle East. We find that the regional production impacts of future irrigation water shortages are quite heterogeneous, depending on the size of the shortfall, the irrigation intensity of crop production, the possibility of expanding rainfed areas, as well as the crop mix. These changes in regional output significantly alter the geography of international trade. To compensate for the loss of productivity caused by the irrigation constraint, an estimated 7.6 million hectares of cropland expansion is needed to meet the demand for food. In spite of the remarkable reduction of irrigation in some basins, the resulting welfare impact is relatively modest as a result of the buffering capacity of global markets. The global welfare loss amounts to $3.7 billion (2001 prices) and results from a combination of the reduction in irrigation availability as well as the interplay with agricultural support policies. 相似文献
6.
ABSTRACTChina’s overseas investment flows (US$ 183 billion) and stock (US$ 4.7 trillion) reached a record peak in 2016, second only to those of the US. A major cause for concern lies in the environmental sustainability of China’s overseas investment portfolio, which is compounded by the lack of transparency of China’s main development finance arms. We intend in this paper to give an update on the magnitude of green finance in China’s overseas investment and development finance portfolio on the basis of the best available estimates, and to put these figures into a broader perspective of multilateral development banks’ commitments and practices to combat climate change. We derive practical policy recommendations that Chinese development banks could take to further align China’s overseas investment with the 2°C target of the Paris Agreement, with the first step being to revise the ‘host country standard’ principle, to ensure that Chinese development banks use the most stringent of the two environmental standards, abroad or at home.Key policy insights
Chinese development banks lend, give or invest between US$ 38 billion and US$ 45 billion every year to developing countries, without either elaborating on, or integrating, the provisions of the Paris Agreement into their investment strategy.
Regulations and safeguards are much more stringent for China’s domestic investment than for China’s overseas investment, and this stringency gap has been widening over recent years.
As a step towards aligning Chinese overseas investment with the Paris Agreement, Chinese development banks could revise the ‘host country standard principle’. They could instead choose the highest among the two – recipient country or Chinese domestic – in terms of environmental stringency, consequently harmonizing overseas environmental regulation and safeguards with those that apply domestically.
7.
Studies have largely discussed the impact of air pollution on the stock market. However, the latter requires certain financial knowledge and certain income, which may lead to sample selection bias. To address this concern, using unique data from online peer-to-peer lending platform, namely, RenRenDai, this paper analyzes the effects of air pollution on loan decisions in China. In the identification strategy, we use approximate exogenous and random daily level air pollution to alleviate the endogenous problem. In a preferred specification, results show that air pollution has significant positive effects on loan amounts with elasticity of 0.013. Such result is driven by health expenditure and behavioral bias. Specifically, after air pollution rises for two or three days, individuals will then increase loan amounts for health and consumption. However, air pollution has no proof of increasing investment. Our study provides new evidence on the effects of air pollution on cognitive performance, particularly on financial behavior. It then reveals the mechanism how air pollution influences loan decisions. In view of the negative impact of air pollution, we also need to know the risks it poses to the financial industry. 相似文献
8.
利用2018年10月—2019年9月天空辐射计观测数据反演北京城区气溶胶光学特性参数,重点分析污染过程中气溶胶光学特性与气象条件的相关性。结果表明:500 nm气溶胶光学厚度在2—7月较大,最高值出现在6月,为0.71。单次散射反照率最高值出现在8月,为0.96;最低值出现在5月,为0.89。440~870 nm ?ngstr?m波长指数最高值出现在夏季,为1.11;最低值出现在春季,为0.89。统计发现污染日数仅占总日数的17%,其中62%为轻度污染;污染和清洁天气条件下PM2.5浓度分别为107.22 μg·m-3和47.16 μg·m-3,500 nm气溶胶光学厚度分别为0.85和0.49,单次散射反照率分别为0.96和0.92;冬季?ngstr?m波长指数在污染天气条件下（1.02）大于清洁天气（0.91）,春季相反。结合天空辐射计、激光雷达和气象数据分析2019年1月一次污染事件,可知低风速与高湿度等不利气象条件、气溶胶粒子的吸湿增长和二次转化、污染物局地排放及区域输送共同导致污染事件发生。 相似文献
9.
应用全球多部门、多区域动态可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型,采用情景分析方法,评估美国退出《巴黎协定》后,由于其碳排放路径的变化对国际气候谈判中的3个重要谈判方中国、欧盟和日本实现国家自主贡献（NDC）和2℃目标情景下碳排放空间和减排成本的影响。结果表明：在全球碳排放固定且分配方式固定的条件下,美国不同程度的退约将为自身获得较大的碳排放空间,同时挤压其他地区,包括中国、欧盟和日本实现NDC和2℃目标的碳排放空间,将推高中国、欧盟和日本实现NDC和2℃目标的碳价。2030年,2℃目标下中国碳价的升幅将达4.4~14.6美元/t,欧盟为9.7~35.4美元/t,日本为16.0~53.5美元/t。同时将增加中国、欧盟和日本等其他国家和地区的GDP损失。2030年,2℃目标下中国GDP损失的升幅将达220.0亿~711.0亿美元（相当于16.4~53.1美元/人）,欧盟为93.5亿~321.4亿美元（相当于20.7~71.1美元/人）,日本为41.3亿~134.5亿美元（相当于34.3~111.7美元/人）。 相似文献
10.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):77-88
Abstract The UK climate change programme has introduced a range of instruments to foster investment in low carbon technologies and markets. We estimate the total value of these interventions, in terms of the redirection of financial flows and directly foregone tax income, to be about £1.3 billion per year (c. Euro or US$ 2 billion per year), as from 2002 to 2003 when the renewable obligation certificates (ROCs) first take effect. About 20% of this consists of direct expenditure, the remaining 80% is in the form of indirect expenditures contained within sectors (ROCs, the energy efficiency commitments), and foregone tax revenues. Most of the energy-efficiency investment is estimated to recoup expenditure within normal life-cycles and may thus be considered profitable; the profitability of the supply-side interventions is predicated mostly upon expected cost reductions associated with the build up of the associated industries. 相似文献
11.
This paper evaluates the global economic damage arising from the effects of climate change and associated carbon dioxide concentrations on the loss of coral reefs. We do this by first estimating the effects of sea surface temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations on coral cover. We develop a statistical relationship between coral coverage and sea surface temperature that indicates that the effects are dependent on the temperature range. For example, we find that increasing sea surface temperature causes coral coverage to decrease when sea surface temperature is higher than 26.85 °C, with the estimated reduction being 2.3% when sea surface temperature increases by 1%. In addition, we find that a 1% carbon dioxide increase induces a 0.6% reduction in global coral coverage. We also estimate the resultant loss in economic value based on a meta-analysis of the recreational and commercial value of reef coverage and a crude proportional approach for other value factors. The meta-analysis shows that the coral reef value decreases by 3.8% when coral cover falls by 1%. By combining these two steps we find that the lost value in terms of the global coral reef value under climate change scenarios ranges from US$3.95 to US$23.78 billion annually. 相似文献
12.
2017年6月1日,美国总统特朗普正式宣布退出《巴黎协定》,有关美国退协原因、后续影响和应对策略的研究成为国际社会关注的焦点。本文基于自主构建的美国政策评估模型,综合定性定量分析,系统评估了美国宣布退出《巴黎协定》可能造成的全球气候变化减缓、资金和治理"三大赤字",并据此提出中国的应对策略和建议。研究表明,考虑美国退协对后续政策的影响,美国2030年的排放将有可能达57.9（56.0~59.8）亿t CO2-eq,仅相当于在2005年的水平上下降12.1%（9.1%~15.0%）,相对自主贡献目标情景将上升16.4（12.5~20.1）亿t CO2-eq,额外增加8.8%~13.4%的全球减排赤字。美国拒绝继续履行资金支持义务还将使得本不充裕的气候资金机制更加雪上加霜,绿色气候基金（GCF）的筹资缺口将增加20亿美元,而长期气候资金（LTF）的缺口每年将增加50亿美元左右。这就要求欧盟和日本对GCF的捐助至少上升40%,同时欧盟及其成员国的长期资金支持至少上浮25.2%才能填补上述资金赤字。美国是全球气候博弈的重要一方,且美国退协的影响已蔓延至全球治理的主要议事平台,期望中欧、基础四国+等模式短期内迅速填补美国退出后全球气候治理的治理赤字是不现实的,政治推动乏力的情况可能会在今后一段时期内始终存在。虽然国际社会对中国领导全球气候治理充满期待,但中国应有清醒认识,全面评估"接盘"美国领导力的成本、效益和可行性,并秉持"国家利益"优先的原则,谋定而后动。同时,中国应聚焦国内工作,凝聚应对气候变化的战略共识,做好长期战略谋划,并积极推动国际社会从合作中寻找出路应对"三大赤字"难题。 相似文献
13.
The degradation of air quality, an environmental consequence of anthropogenic activities, poses a challenge to human health. However, the corresponding control measures incur additional costs. This study presents an analysis of the health and socioeconomic benefits of air quality control measures and climate change mitigation. Multidisciplinary modelling was used for PM2.5 and ozone distribution to analyze the co-benefits of end-of-pipe measures and electrification as well as their period-specific impacts on human health and the economy. The results indicated that the long-term impacts of end-of-pipe technologies and electrification in Japan's residential, building, and transportation sectors could reduce premature deaths, caused by PM2.5 and ozone pollution, by 65,500 annually from 2010 to 2050. These technologies could save a per capita work hour loss of 3.64 h and avoid an economic loss of 5.43 billion USD by 2050. This study predicted climate actions would enable western Japan to benefit from PM2.5 control measures, whereas the entire country would benefit from ozone pollution reduction. 相似文献
14.
为建立适合深圳的空气污染气象条件标准,对目前开展的空气污染气象条件预报进行客观的检验,基于2011—2013年地面常规气象观测资料和风廓线雷达资料,对能见度和影响因子(降雨、地面风速和低空风速)进行了相关分析。根据不同气象条件对空气污染的不同影响,将空气污染气象条件分为1—6级,等级越高,越有利于空气污染,并由此建立了深圳市空气污染气象条件等级的计算方法和流程。计算结果与实况基本相符,平均基本准确率达到75.0%,其中1级和4级基本准确率分别达到83.3%、85.2%,业务运行良好。该方法对于小概率事件(如热带气旋外围环流影响)的计算能力较差,6级的基本正确率仅为52.7%。所以针对特殊的低能见度小概率事件需要进行进一步的研究。 相似文献
15.
This paper scopes a number of the health impacts of climate change in Europe (EU-27) quantitatively, using physical and monetary
metrics. Temperature-related mortality effects, salmonellosis and coastal flooding-induced mental health impacts resulting
from climate change are isolated from the effects of socio-economic change for the 2011–2040 and 2071–2100 time periods. The
temperature-induced mortality effects of climate change include both positive and negative effects, for winter (cold) and
summer (heat) effects, respectively, and have welfare costs (and benefits) of up to 100 billion Euro annually by the later
time-period, though these are unevenly distributed across countries. The role of uncertainty in quantifying these effects
is explored through sensitivity analysis on key parameters. This investigates climate model output, climate scenario, impact
function, the existence and extent of acclimatisation, and the choice of physical and monetary metrics. While all of these
lead to major differences in reported results, acclimatisation is particularly important in determining the size of the health
impacts, and could influence the scale and form of public adaptation at the EU and national level. The welfare costs for salmonellosis
from climate change are estimated at potentially several hundred million Euro annually by the period 2071–2100. Finally, a
scoping assessment of the health costs of climate change from coastal flooding, focusing on mental health problems such as
depression, are estimated at up to 1.5 billion Euro annually by the period 2071–2100. 相似文献
16.
SCOTT ELLIOTT MEI SHEN DONALD R. BLAKE RONG LU ARMISTEAD G. RUSSELL C. Y. J. KAO GERALD E. STREIT XUE PENG ZHAO EDWARD IAIN McCREARY F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND MICHAEL J. BROWN RICHARD P. TURCO 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1997,27(1):31-70
Local surface travel needs in the Peoples Republic of China (mainlandChina) have traditionally been met largely by nonpolluting bicycles. A majorautomobile manufacturing/importing effort has begun in the country over thelast decade, and planning documents indicate that the Chinese may strive toacquire more than 100 million vehicles early in the next century. By analogywith large automotive fleets already existing in the western world, bothregional and global scale pollution effects are to be expected from theincrease. The present work adopts the latest projections of Chinese automobilemanufacture and performs some quantitative assessments of the extent ofpollution generation.Focus for the investigation is placed upon the oxidant ozone. Emissions of theprecursor species nitrogen oxides and volatile organics are constructed basedon data for the current automotive sector in the eastern portion of the UnitedStates. Ozone production is first estimated from measured values forcontinental/oceanic scale yields relative to precursor oxidation. Theestimates are then corroborated through idealized two dimensional modeling ofthe photochemistry taking place in springtime air flow off the Asian land massand toward the Pacific Ocean. The projected fleet sizes could increase coastaland remote oceanic ozone concentrations by tens of parts per billion (ppb)in the lower troposphere. Influences on the tropospheric aerosol system andon the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide are treated peripherally. Nitrogenoxides created during the vehicular internal combustion process willcontribute to nitrate pollution levels measured in the open Pacific. Thepotential for soot and fugitive dust increases should be considered as theautomotive infrastructure develops. Since the emerging Chinese automotivetransportation system will represent a substantial addition to the globalfleet and all the carbon in gasoline is eventually oxidized completely, asignificant rise in global carbon dioxide inputs will ensue as well.Some policy issues are treated preliminary. The assumption is made thatalterations to regional oxidant/aerosol systems and to terrestrial climate areconceivable. The likelihood that the Chinese can achieve the latest vehiclefleet goals is discussed, from the points of view of new production, positivepollution feedbacks from a growing automobile industry, and known petroleumreserves. Vehicular fuel and maintenance options lying before the Chinese areoutlines and compared. To provide some perspective on the magnitude of theenvironmental changes associated with an Asian automotive buildup, recentestimates of the effects of future air traffic over the Pacific Rim aredescribed. 相似文献
17.
利用地面图、高空天气图(850 hPa、500 hPa)以及气象要素对2006—2008年秋季(9—11月)广州市4次典型的大气污染过程进行研究,分析其大气污染过程的特征及其相对应的天气系统、与气象要素之间的关系。结果表明,广州市秋季重大气污染多数发生在:(1)广州受冷空气影响或回暖期,持续小风或出现静风会导致污染物大量积聚,且多出现能见度明显下降;(2)由于偏北风的输送作用,处于下风向的万顷沙站较易出现重大气污染过程,表现出明显的区域性污染输送特征;(3)冷高压脊、回流天气形势、台风外围下沉气流影响期间;(4)近地面层出现逆温层或等温层。 相似文献
18.
Juan-Carlos Ciscar László Szabó Denise van Regemorter Antonio Soria 《Climatic change》2012,112(1):127-142
The PESETA project has estimated the physical effects of climate change in Europe for the following impact categories with
a market valuation: agriculture, river floods, coastal systems and tourism. Four alternative scenarios of future climate change
have been considered. The computable general equilibrium (CGE) GEM-E3 model for Europe has been used to integrate the PESETA
damages under a consistent economic framework. The approach followed has been to assess the effects of future climate (as
of 2080s) on today’s economy. This article details the way each sectoral impact has been integrated into the CGE model. The
EU welfare loss is estimated to be in a range of 0.2% to 1%, depending on the climate future and the projected sea level rise.
Results show that the Southern Europe region appears as the most vulnerable area to climate change. Impacts in coastal systems,
agriculture and river floods determine the overall and regional pattern of impacts within Europe. 相似文献
19.
控制煤炭消费是应对大气污染问题的关键措施,但中国煤炭消费总量控制仍未分解与落实到地方层面。研究基于大气污染的约束分析,结合情景分析与数据回归,通过建立大气污染物与煤炭消费之间的量化关系,分析了2020、2030年全国及各省/市煤炭消费总量控制目标,初步设计了中国煤炭消费总量控制方案,提出2020和2030年全国煤炭消费量控制目标分别为40亿t和45亿t,各省则均按预测结果调整执行,汇总值分别为44亿t和50亿t,鉴于两者之间的差距在于国家统计口径考虑了重复因素的剔除,故采纳基于国家统计数据的分析结果。建议构建绿色经济发展用煤指标,适当提高电力耗煤的比例,为促进中国中长期煤炭资源的合理消费提供科技支撑。 相似文献
20.
Bernardo Strassburg R. Kerry Turner Brendan Fisher Roberto Schaeffer Andrew Lovett 《Global Environmental Change》2009,19(2):265-278
Despite accounting for 17–25% of anthropogenic emissions, deforestation was not included in the Kyoto Protocol. The UN Convention on Climate Change is considering its inclusion in future agreements and asked its scientific board to study methodological and scientific issues related to positive incentives to reduce emissions from deforestation. Here we present an empirically derived mechanism that offers a mix of incentives to developing countries to reduce emissions from deforestation, conserve and possibly enhance their ecosystem's carbon stocks. We also use recent data to model its effects on the 20 most forested developing countries. Results show that at low CO2 prices (～US$ 8/t CO2) a successful mechanism could reduce more than 90% of global deforestation at an annual cost of US$ 30 billion. 相似文献