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1.
The optimal choice of residue management, crop rotations, and cost of carbon sequestration: empirical results in the Midwest US 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This study investigates the cost of soil carbon sequestration in the Midwest US. The model addresses several missing components in earlier analyses: the link between the residue level choice and carbon payments, crop rotations, carbon loss when shifting from conservation to conventional tillage and the spatial pattern of carbon sequestration across different soil types. The results suggest that for $100 per metric ton of carbon, 1.5 million metric tons of carbon could be sequestered per year on the 19.9 million hectares of cropland in the study region. These estimates suggest less carbon potential than existing studies because the opportunity costs associated with conservation tillage are fairly high. Annual carbon rental payments are found to be more efficient, as expected, but for smaller programs, per hectare rental payments are not substantially more costly. 相似文献
2.
Rainfall erosivity, which shows a potential risk of soil loss caused by water erosion, is an important factor in soil erosion process. In consideration of the critical condition of soil erosion induced by rainfall in Guangdong Province of southern China, this study analyzed the spatial and temporal variations in rainfall erosivity based on daily rainfall data observed at 25 meteorological stations during the period of 1960–2011. The methods of global spatial autocorrelation, kriging interpolation, Mann–Kendall test, and continuous wavelet transform were used. Results revealed that the annual rainfall erosivity in Guangdong Province, which spatially varied with the maximum level observed in June, was classified as high erosivity with two peaks that occur in spring and summer. In the direction of south–north, mean annual rainfall erosivity, which showed significant relationships with mean annual rainfall and latitude, gradually decreased with the high values mainly distributed in the coastal area and the low values mainly occurring in the lowlands of northwestern Guangdong. Meanwhile, a significant positive spatial autocorrelation which implied a clustered pattern was observed for annual rainfall erosivity. The spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall erosivity exhibited clustering tendencies, except spring erosivity with Moran’s I and Z values of 0.1 and 1.04, respectively. The spatial distribution of monthly rainfall erosivity presented clustered patterns in January–March and July–October as well as random patterns in the remaining months. The temporal trend of mean rainfall erosivity in Guangdong Province showed no statistically significant trend at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales. However, at each station, 1 out of 25 stations exhibited a statistically significant trend at the annual scale; 4 stations located around the Pearl River Delta presented significant trends in summer at the seasonal scale; significant trends were observed in March (increasing trends at 3 stations), June (increasing trends at 4 stations located in the Beijiang River Basin), and October (decreasing trends at 4 stations) at the monthly scale. In accordance with the mean annual rainfall over Guangdong Province, the mean annual rainfall erosivity showed two significant periodicities of 3–6 and 10–12 years at a confidence level of 95 %. In conclusion, the results of this study provide insights into the spatiotemporal variation in rainfall erosivity in Guangdong Province and support for agrolandscape planning and water and soil conservation efforts in this region. 相似文献
3.
Multiple cropping, defined as harvesting more than once a year, is a widespread land management strategy in tropical and subtropical agriculture. It is a way of intensifying agricultural production and diversifying the crop mix for economic and environmental benefits. Here we present the first global gridded data set of multiple cropping systems and quantify the physical area of more than 200 systems, the global multiple cropping area and the potential for increasing cropping intensity. We use national and sub-national data on monthly crop-specific growing areas around the year 2000 (1998–2002) for 26 crop groups, global cropland extent and crop harvested areas to identify sequential cropping systems of two or three crops with non-overlapping growing seasons. We find multiple cropping systems on 135 million hectares (12% of global cropland) with 85 million hectares in irrigated agriculture. 34%, 13% and 10% of the rice, wheat and maize area, respectively are under multiple cropping, demonstrating the importance of such cropping systems for cereal production. Harvesting currently single cropped areas a second time could increase global harvested areas by 87–395 million hectares, which is about 45% lower than previous estimates. Some scenarios of intensification indicate that it could be enough land to avoid expanding physical cropland into other land uses but attainable intensification will depend on the local context and the crop yields attainable in the second cycle and its related environmental costs. 相似文献
4.
Jingyun Fang Sandra Brown Yanhong Tang Gert-Jan Nabuurs Xiangping Wang Haihua Shen 《Climatic change》2006,74(1-3):355-368
The biomass carbon (C) stock of forests is one of key parameters for the study of regional and global carbon cycles. Literature reviews shows that inventory-based forest C stocks documented for major countries in the middle and high northern latitudes fall within a narrow range of 36–56 Mg C ha−1 with an overall area-weighted mean of 43.6 Mg C ha−1. These estimates are 0.40 to 0.71 times smaller than those (61–108 Mg C ha−1) used in previous analysis of balancing the global carbon budget. A statistical analysis, using the global forest biomass database, implies that aboveground biomass per hectare is proportional to forest mean height [biomass in Mg/ha = 10.63 (height in m)] in closed-canopy forests in the study regions, indicating that forest height can be a proxy of regional biomass C stocks. The narrow range of C stocks is likely a result of similar forest height across the northern regions. The lower biomass C stock obtained in this study strongly suggests that the role of the northern forests in the global carbon cycle needs to be re-evaluated. Our findings also suggest that regional estimates of biomass could be readily made from the use of satellite methods such as lidar that can measure forest canopy height over large regions. 相似文献
5.
The purpose of this paper is to develop and apply a new method to assess economic potential for agricultural greenhouse gas
mitigation. This method uses secondary economic data and conventional econometric production models, combined with estimates
of soil carbon stocks derived from biophysical simulation models such as Century, to construct economic simulation models
that estimate economic potential for carbon sequestration. Using this method, simulations for the central United States show
that reduction in fallow and conservation tillage adoption in the wheat-pasture system could generate up to about 1.7 million
MgC/yr, whereas increased adoption of conservation tillage in the corn–soy–feed system could generate up to about 6.2 million
MgC/yr at a price of $200/MgC. About half of this potential could be achieved at relatively low carbon prices (in the range
of $50 per ton). The model used in this analysis produced estimates of economic potential for soil carbon sequestration potential
similar to results produced by much more data-intensive, field-scale models, suggesting that this simpler, aggregate modeling
approach can produce credible estimates of soil carbon sequestration potential. Carbon rates were found to vary substantially
over the region. Using average carbon rates for the region, the model produced carbon sequestration estimates within about
10% of those based on county-specific carbon rates, suggesting that effects of spatial heterogeneity in carbon rates may average
out over a large region such as the central United States. However, the average carbon rates produced large prediction errors
for individual counties, showing that estimates of carbon rates do need to be matched to the spatial scale of analysis. Transaction
costs were found to have a potentially important impact on soil carbon supply at low carbon prices, particularly when carbon
rates are low, but this effect diminishes as carbon prices increase.
This research was supported in part by the Montana State Agricultural Experiment Station, by the EPA STAR Climate Change program
and by the Consortium for the Agricultural Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases. Although the research described in this article
has been funded wholly or in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency through grant R-82874501-0 to Montana
State University, it has not been subjected to the Agency’s required peer and policy review and therefore does not necessarily
reflect the views of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred. 相似文献
6.
By 2025, it is estimated that around 5 billion people, out of a total population of around 8 billion, will be living in countries experiencing water stress (using more than 20% of their available resources). Climate change has the potential to impose additional pressures in some regions. This paper describes an assessment of the implications of climate change for global hydrological regimes and water resources. It uses climate change scenarios developed from Hadley Centre climate simulations (HadCM2 and HadCM3), and simulates global river flows at a spatial resolution of 0.5×0.5° using a macro-scale hydrological model. Changes in national water resources are calculated, including both internally generated runoff and upstream imports, and compared with national water use estimates developed for the United Nations Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World. Although there is variation between scenarios, the results suggest that average annual runoff will increase in high latitudes, in equatorial Africa and Asia, and southeast Asia, and will decrease in mid-latitudes and most subtropical regions. The HadCM3 scenario produces changes in runoff which are often similar to those from the HadCM2 scenarios — but there are important regional differences. The rise in temperature associated with climate change leads to a general reduction in the proportion of precipitation falling as snow, and a consequent reduction in many areas in the duration of snow cover. This has implications for the timing of streamflow in such regions, with a shift from spring snow melt to winter runoff. Under the HadCM2 ensemble mean scenario, the number of people living in countries with water stress would increase by 53 million by 2025 (relative to those who would be affected in the absence of climate change). Under the HadCM3 scenario, the number of people living in countries with water stress would rise by 113 million. However, by 2050 there would be a net reduction in populations in stressed countries under HadCM2 (of around 69 million), but an increase of 56 million under HadCM3. The study also showed that different indications of the impact of climate change on water resource stresses could be obtained using different projections of future water use. The paper emphasises the large range between estimates of “impact”, and also discusses the problems associated with the scale of analysis and the definition of indices of water resource impact. 相似文献
7.
Despite recent success in reducing forest loss in the Brazilian Amazon, additional forest conservation efforts, for example, through ‘Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation’ (REDD+), could significantly contribute to global climate-change mitigation. Economic incentives, such as payments for environmental services could promote conservation, but deforestation often occurs on land without crucial tenure-security prerequisites. Improving the enforcement of existing regulatory disincentives thus represents an important element of Brazil's anti-deforestation action plan. However, conservation law enforcement costs and benefits have been much less studied than for conditional payments. We develop a conceptual framework and a spatially explicit model to analyze field-based regulatory enforcement in the Brazilian Amazon. We validate our model, based on historical deforestation and enforcement mission data from 2003 to 2008. By simulating the current conservation law enforcement practice, we analyze the costs of liability establishment and legal coercion for alternative conservation targets, and evaluate corresponding income impacts. Our findings suggest that spatial patterns of both deforestation and inspection costs markedly influence enforcement patterns and their income effects. Field-based enforcement is a highly cost-effective forest conservation instrument from a regulator's point of view, but comes at high opportunity costs for land users. Payments for environmental services could compensate costs, but will increase budget outlays vis-à-vis a command-and-control dominated strategy. Both legal and institutional challenges have to be overcome to make conservation payments work at a larger scale. Decision-makers may have to innovatively combine incentive and disincentive-based policy instruments in order to make tropical forest conservation both financially viable and socially compatible. 相似文献
8.
E.F. Lambin H.K. Gibbs L. Ferreira R. Grau P. Mayaux P. Meyfroidt D.C. Morton T.K. Rudel I. Gasparri J. Munger 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):892-901
Previous estimates of the land area available for future cropland expansion relied on global-scale climate, soil and terrain data. They did not include a range of constraints and tradeoffs associated with land conversion. As a result, estimates of the global land reserve have been high. Here we adjust these estimates for the aforementioned constraints and tradeoffs. We define potentially available cropland as the moderately to highly productive land that could be used in the coming years for rainfed farming, with low to moderate capital investments, and that is not under intact mature forests, legally protected, or already intensively managed. This productive land is underutilized rather than unused as it has ecological or social functions. We also define potentially available cropland that accounts for trade-offs between gains in agricultural production and losses in ecosystem and social services from intensified agriculture, to include only the potentially available cropland that would entail low ecological and social costs with conversion to cropland. In contrast to previous studies, we adopt a “bottom-up” approach by analyzing detailed, fine scale observations with expert knowledge for six countries or regions that are often assumed to include most of potentially available cropland. We conclude first that there is substantially less potential additional cropland than is generally assumed once constraints and trade offs are taken into account, and secondly that converting land is always associated with significant social and ecological costs. Future expansion of agricultural production will encounter a complex landscape of competing demands and tradeoffs. 相似文献
9.
中国土壤热通量的时空分布特征研究 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
利用中国生态系统研究网络(CERN)的17个野外台站2004～2007年的实测土壤表层热通量资料,分析了土壤表层热通量的季节和空间变化规律。土壤热通量从2月份开始由负值转变为正值,9月份左右开始由正值转变为负值,在3～8月份土壤热通量的值都为正值,12月至次年1月土壤热通量都为负值。空间分布上,东北地区和西北地区季节变化明显,年变幅比较大,长江流域地区夏季增加幅度小,年变化幅度也比较小,青藏高原地区四季都相对为低值地区,年变幅比较小,总的空间变化趋势是春夏季北高南低,秋冬季节南高北低。土壤热通量年合计值在东北黑土地地区、西北荒漠地区、黄土高原陕北地区和四川盆地地区是高值区,长江流域下游和黄河流域中下游冲积而成的区域为负值区。研究结果为进一步研究土壤的生态环境形成和变化提供了参考依据。 相似文献
10.
Networks of rain gauges can provide a better insight into the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall, but they tend to be too widely spaced for accurate estimates. A way to estimate the spatial variability of rainfall between gauge points is to interpolate between them. This paper evaluates the spatial autocorrelation of rainfall data in some locations in Peninsular Malaysia using geostatistical technique. The results give an insight on the spatial variability of rainfall in the area, as such, two rain gauges were selected for an in-depth study of the temporal dependence of the rainfall data-generating process. It could be shown that rainfall data are affected by nonlinear characteristics of the variance often referred to as variance clustering or volatility, where large changes tend to follow large changes and small changes tend to follow small changes. The autocorrelation structure of the residuals and the squared residuals derived from autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were inspected, the residuals are uncorrelated but the squared residuals show autocorrelation, and the Ljung–Box test confirmed the results. A test based on the Lagrange multiplier principle was applied to the squared residuals from the ARIMA models. The results of this auxiliary test show a clear evidence to reject the null hypothesis of no autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) effect. Hence, it indicates that generalized ARCH (GARCH) modeling is necessary. An ARIMA error model is proposed to capture the mean behavior and a GARCH model for modeling heteroskedasticity (variance behavior) of the residuals from the ARIMA model. Therefore, the composite ARIMA–GARCH model captures the dynamics of daily rainfall in the study area. On the other hand, seasonal ARIMA model became a suitable model for the monthly average rainfall series of the same locations treated. 相似文献