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1.
This paper reviews existing policy responses to rapid climate change and examines possible assumptions that underpin those responses. The analysis demonstrates that current policy responses to rapid climate change make unwarranted epistemological and ethical assumptions. Specifically, we argue that the assumptions about the possibility of predicting the climate system including tipping points linked to utilitarian ethical assumptions in the form of cost–benefit analysis are open to contestation and should be subject to global public debate. The paper considers alternative normative approaches and briefly proposes complementary policy responses. 相似文献
2.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):298-316
The impacts of predicted climate change will not be distributed evenly around the world. As post-Kyoto negotiations unfold, relating the geographical distribution of projected impacts to responsibility for emissions among world regions is essential for achieving an equitable path forward. This article surveys the current knowledge of regional climate consequences, and delves into the regional predictions of economic assessment models to date, examining how the uncertainties, assumptions and ethical dimensions influence the portrayal of risk at this scale. The few studies that quantitatively compared regional risk and responsibility are reviewed, and the analytical framework from one such study is applied to the 2006 Stern Review's projections to give the first regional comparison to take purchasing power and welfare considerations into account. Synthesizing burden and blame in this way is informative for policy makers; the world's most vulnerable communities—in Africa, the Indian subcontinent, Latin America, and small island states—accounted for less than 33% of global greenhouse gas emissions over the period 1961–2000, but may experience more than 75% of the ensuing climate damages this century. This analysis reinforces the call for industrialized nations to lead mitigation efforts, and to do so decisively and swiftly. 相似文献
3.
Resilience is a multidimensional concept that is increasingly used to understand environmental change in hydrological systems. Yet, the current discussion about water governance and resilience remains relatively limited, with resilience typically seen as a normative outcome for governance (i.e., to be resilient against change). Using a theoretical multiplicity approach, we explore how the theories of social-ecological systems (SES), resilience and interactive (water) governance can provide new insights for water governance studies. We propose a resilience–governance framework that captures the partly overlapping but distinct characteristics from these three theories. The framework aims to develop a more nuanced way of using resilience-thinking for water governance, viewing resilience as a function of three capacities (absorptive, adaptive and transformative capacity) and noting the simultaneous existence of three interpretations for resilience (as a property, process and outcome) across different scales. The framework also considers issues of power and equity, which are often missing from resilience framings. We illustrate the framework with two case studies – the Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia and a small sub-catchment of the Limpopo River Basin in South Africa – to provide two distinct examples of the possibilities of resilient governance. Finally, we consider what the framework suggests more broadly for ongoing discussions around resilience and water governance, including the possibilities for governance to also ‘bounce forward’ – i.e., transform – to a new, improved state. We argue that resilience-thinking may be valuable in understanding governance characteristics and guiding governance processes, in addition to seeing resilience (just) as a normative end-goal. In this way, the article supports an epistemological shift away from focusing on institutional structure, towards capturing the dynamic processes within governing systems. 相似文献
4.
Economics of climate policy and collective decision making 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Beat Bürgenmeier Andrea Baranzini Catherine Ferrier Céline Germond-Duret Karin Ingold Sylvain Perret Peter Rafaj Socrates Kypreos Alexander Wokaun 《Climatic change》2006,79(1-2):143-162
This paper explores the reasons why economic instruments of climate change are reluctantly applied and stresses the need for interdisciplinary research linking economic theory and empirical testing to deliberative political procedures. It is divided in three parts. The first one recalls the main issues in implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis such as information problems, uncertainties, discounting the future and irreversibilities. The second part shows how these issues can be treated in integrated assessment and techno-economic models and presents a case study, which shows that
- The chosen scenario tends to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at around 550 ppm in the long run.
- Exclusion of possibility to trade CO2 emission permits under a cap regime would increase the cost of emission abatement for OECD countries.
- Combining different flexibility instruments might lead to significant gains in the overall cost of climate policy.
5.
《Global Environmental Change》2003,13(4):229-234
A vast scientific and economic literature on global warming has emerged in the last two decades. Surprisingly, however, there has been little written on the ethical dimensions of human-induced climate change despite the numerous, obvious, and profoundly important ethical questions raised by human activities that are now clearly threatening human health, the environment, and many things humans value greatly. This paper argues that ethical analysis of global warming issues is practically imperative for two reasons. First, unless ethical is made analysis is made of global warming issues, ethically dubious decisions about global warming will be made because many of the most important ethical considerations are hidden in what appear to be ethically neutral scientific and economic arguments about global warming policy options. Secondly, unless issues of ethics, justice and equity are expressly dealt with, urgently needed global solutions to global warming will not likely be adopted by many nations. That is, an ethical focus on global warming matters is the key to achieve a globally acceptable solution and to harness political support for action. The paper concludes with a recommendation on how institutions and nations should go about implementing express examination of the ethical dimensions of global warming questions. The paper argues for express identification of ethical issues often hidden in scientific and economic analyses of global warming policy options. 相似文献
6.
The PRUDENCE project has generated a set of spatially and temporally high-resolution climate data, which provides new opportunities for assessing the impacts of climate variability and change on economic and human systems in Europe. In this context, we initiated the development of new approaches for linking climate change information and economic studies. We have considered a number of case studies that illustrate how linkages can be established between geographically detailed climate data and economic information. The case studies included wheat production in agriculture, where regional climate data has been linked to farm enterprise data in an integrated model of physical conditions, production inputs and outputs, and farm management practices. Similarly, temperature data were used to assess consequences of extreme heat and excess mortality in urban areas. We give an introduction of an analytical approach for assessing economic impacts of climate change and discuss how economic concepts and valuation paradigms can be applied to climate change impact evaluation. A number of methodological difficulties encountered in economic assessments of climate change impacts are described and a number of issues related to social and private aspects of costs are highlighted. It is argued that, in particular, detailed climate information matters in relation to understanding how private agents react to observed climate data. 相似文献
7.
This paper seeks to clarify and refine the assertion that vulnerability exists as both a material, condition and discursive construct. Building off of previous scholarship analyzing the production of, vulnerabilities, we present a conceptual framework that illuminates how material vulnerabilities are translated into political vulnerabilities and ossified in the policy realm. We argue that specifying components of, and relationships between, the material and political aspects of vulnerability will result in a more sophisticated articulation of vulnerability as a recursive process. In order to achieve this level of analysis we propose a spatial–historical analytic approach that blends point-in-time and, empirically driven analysis with robust historical and political economic analysis. We use the largest urban wildfire – in terms of dwellings lost – in California's history to show how the persistent disconnection between material and political forms of vulnerability has, over time, resulted in contradictory landscapes where homes are intentionally placed in landscapes vulnerable to wildfires with reduced fire protection. Spatial historical analysis of the Tunnel Fire reveals how representations of vulnerability oftentimes deviate from lived experiences, engendering responses of exploitation, ignorance, mobilization and resistance. This framework also recognizes how these responses can create new vulnerabilities while also maintaining, deepening and diminishing existing material conditions. Finally, relational analysis illuminates how factors generating vulnerability in fire areas also contribute to and reinforce vulnerabilities within other parts of cities like Oakland, California. 相似文献
8.
Elizabeth A. Stanton 《Climatic change》2011,107(3-4):417-432
In a global climate policy debate fraught with differing understandings of right and wrong, the importance of making transparent the ethical assumptions used in climate-economics models cannot be overestimated. Negishi weighting is a key ethical assumption in climate-economics models, but it is virtually unknown to most model users. Negishi weights freeze the current distribution of income between world regions; without this constraint, IAMs that maximize global welfare would recommend an equalization of income across regions as part of their policy advice. With Negishi weights in place, these models instead recommend a course of action that would be optimal only in a world in which global income redistribution cannot and will not take place. This article describes the Negishi procedure and its origin in theoretical and applied welfare economics, and discusses the policy implications of the presentation and use of Negishi-weighted model results, as well as some alternatives to Negishi weighting in climate-economics models. 相似文献
9.
As climate change policies and governance initiatives struggle to produce the transformational social changes required, the search for stand out case studies continues. Many have pointed to the period between 2005 and 2008 in the United Kingdom as a promising example of national level innovation. With strong cross-party consensus and a first-of-its-kind legislation the UK established itself as a climate policy leader. However, early warning signs suggest that this institutionalised position is far from secure. Through a novel application of discursive institutionalism this article presents a detailed analysis of the role of ideas in unravelling this ambition under the Conservative-Liberal coalition administration (2010–2015). Discursive interactions among policymakers and other political actors were dominated by ideas about governmental responsibility and economic austerity, establishing an atmosphere of climate policy scepticism and restraint. By situating this conspicuous and influential process of bricolage within its institutional context the importance of how policymakers think and communicate about climate change is made apparent. The power of ideas to influence policy is further demonstrated through their cognitive and normative persuasiveness, by imposing over and excluding alternatives and in their institutional positioning. It can be concluded that despite innovative legislation, institution building and strategic coordination of different types of governance actors the ideational foundations of ambitious climate change politics in the UK have been undermined. 相似文献
10.
In a context of neo-liberal environmental governance, imperatives for global climate change mitigation are motivating a new round of policy initiatives and projects aimed at carbon forestry: conserving and enhancing forest carbon stocks, and trading these values in emerging carbon markets. In this context modelling and measurement, always significant in framing and justifying forest policy initiatives, are of renewed importance, with a growing array of protocols focused on counting and accounting for forest carbon as a commodity. This article draws on perspectives from science and technology studies and environmental discourse analysis to explore how these modelling and measurement processes are being co-constructed with forest carbon policies and political economies, and applied in project design in local settings. Document analysis and key informant interviews are used to track and illustrate these processes in a pair of case studies of forest carbon projects in Sierra Leone and Ghana. These are chosen to highlight different project types – focused respectively on forest reserve and farm-forestry – in settings with multi-layered histories of people-forest relations, landscape change and prior project intervention. The analysis shows how longer established framings and assessments of deforestation are being re-invoked and re-worked amidst current carbon concerns. We demonstrate that measurement processes are not just technical but social and political, carrying and thus cementing particular views of landscape and social relations that in turn make likely particular kinds of intervention pathway, with fortress style conservation or plantations becoming the dominant approach. In the process, other possibilities – including alternative pathways that might treat and value carbon as part of complex, lived-in landscapes, or respond more adaptively to less equilibrial people–forest relations, are occluded. 相似文献
11.
Safe climate policy is affordable—12 reasons 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Jeroen C. J. M. van den Bergh 《Climatic change》2010,101(3-4):339-385
There is a widespread sense that a sufficiently stringent climate mitigation policy, that is, a considerable reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid extreme climate change, will come with very high economic costs for society. This is supported by many cost–benefit analyses (CBA) and policy cost assessments of climate policy. All of these, nevertheless, are based on debatable assumptions. This paper will argue instead that safe climate policy is not excessively expensive and is indeed cheaper than suggested by most current studies. To this end, climate CBA and policy cost assessments are critically evaluated, and as a replacement twelve complementary perspectives on the cost of climate policy are offered. 相似文献
12.
Fran Sussman Nisha Krishnan Kathryn Maher Rawlings Miller Charlotte Mack Paul Stewart 《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):242-282
Researchers and policy makers increasingly recognize the need to adapt to future changes in climate, given that past emissions of greenhouse gases have already committed the world to some level of climate change. However, the current understanding of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures is still fairly rudimentary, and far from comprehensive. An assessment is presented of the current state of knowledge on the magnitude of adaptation costs in the United States. While incomplete, the studies suggest that adaptation cost could be as high as tens or hundreds of billions of dollars per year by the middle of this century. Key studies are identified in each sector, and the cost estimates and approaches to cost estimation are surveyed. Methodological issues are highlighted in interpreting, comparing, and aggregating adaptation cost estimates. Policy recommendations are made along with appropriate steps to make future adaptation cost studies more comparable within and across sectors and more accessible and relevant to policy and decision makers.Policy relevanceDesigning and implementing climate change adaptation policy requires good information about the effectiveness and cost of available adaptive options. The current state of knowledge on adaptation costs in the United States is assessed and significant gaps in the literature are highlighted – particularly in terms of sectoral and geographic coverage – as well as inconsistencies in methodologies and assumptions that hamper comparison across studies. Critical steps are identified that can be taken to make adaptation cost studies more accessible and useful to decision makers. The findings and recommendations are relevant to adaptation cost studies globally, not just in the United States. 相似文献
13.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):317-336
This article assesses a wide range of alternative proposals for post-2012 international climate policy regimes. We believe that these proposals will serve as a basis for debates about how to configure post-2012 climate policy. The article characterizes and assesses the policy proposals along the lines of five key policy dilemmas. We argue that (1) many proposals have ideas on how to reduce emissions, but fewer have a solution on how to stimulate technical innovation; (2) many proposals formulate climate policy in isolation, while there are fewer proposals that try to mainstream climate policies in other policy areas; (3) many proposals advocate market-based solutions, while fewer realize that there are certain drawbacks to this solution especially at the international level; (4) most proposals have a preference for a UN-based regime, while a more fragmented regime, based on regional and sectoral arrangements may be emerging; and (5) most proposals have ideas about mitigation, but not many have creative ideas on how to integrate mitigation with adaptation. 相似文献
14.
With advancing climate change there is a growing need to include short-lived climate forcings in cost-efficient mitigation strategies to achieve international climate policy targets. Tools are required to compare the climate impact of perturbations with distinctively different atmospheric lifetimes and atmospheric properties. We present a generic approach for relating the climate effect of short-lived climate forcers (SLCF) to that of CO2 emissions. We distinguish between three alternative types of metric-based factors that can be used to derive CO2 equivalences for SLCF: based on forcing, activity and fossil fuel consumption. We derive numerical values for a wide range of parameter assumptions and apply the resulting generalised approach to the practical example of aviation-induced cloudiness. The evaluation of CO2 equivalences for SLCF tends to be more sensitive to SLCF specific physical uncertainties and the normative choice of a discount rate than to the choice of a physical or economic metric approach. The ability of physical metrics to approximate economic-based metrics alters with changing atmospheric concentration levels and trends. Under reference conditions, physical CO2 equivalences for SLCF provide sufficient proxies for economic ones. The latter, however, allow detailed insight into structural uncertainties. They provide CO2 equivalences for SLCF in short term strategies in the face of failing climate policies, and a temporal evolution of CO2 equivalences over time that is noticeably better in line with cost-efficient climate stabilisation. 相似文献
15.
In recent years, climate policy under the United Nations system has been characterized by bottom-up, national approaches to climate mitigation. This raises concerns about the overall effectiveness of these mitigation policies, for example due to carbon leakage. In response to these concerns, authors have repeatedly suggested that policy makers consider a consumption-based climate policy approach. We analyze the potential merits of a switch to a consumption-based policy approach using the criteria of justice and economic efficiency. We argue that emissions must be understood as being contributed by both, consumers and producers, but that this fact does not by itself settle the question whether consumption or production ought to serve as the climate policy base. Rather, the perspective of justice necessitates an analysis of the distributive consequences of switching from a production- to a consumption-based policy.We find that both (global) cost-effectiveness and justice can be improved if the unilateral climate policies of industrialized countries are based on emissions from consumption. There are preconditions, however, the switch in the policy base must be accompanied by clean technology transfer, and if implemented by border carbon adjustments, import tax revenues need to be channeled to developing and emerging economies. We further show that in such a setting, export rebates are of minor importance for efficiency and justice. 相似文献
16.
This paper provides a critique of the cost-benefit analysis tool for ecosystem services policy evaluation. We argue that when applied to public ecosystem services, the theoretical assumptions that underlie economic valuation and cost-benefit analysis fail to fully acknowledge the multiple dimensions of human well-being, the plural forms of value articulation, the complex nature of ecosystems, the distributional biases of markets and the fairness implications of spatio-temporal framing. The current monistic utilitarian approach to ecosystem services policy evaluation should therefore be replaced by a pluralist framework composed of a heterogeneous set of value-articulating instruments that are appropriate to the specific context within which decision-making takes place. It is argued that within this pluralist framework cost-benefit analysis may remain an appropriate tool to examine the contingent trade-offs of local policies that have limited impacts on ecosystems and their services. 相似文献
17.
This paper analyses structural change in the economy as a key but largely unexplored aspect of global socio-economic and climate change mitigation scenarios. Structural change can actually drive energy and land use as much as economic growth and influence mitigation opportunities and barriers. Conversely, stringent climate policy is bound to induce specific structural and socio-economic transformations that are still insufficiently understood. We introduce Multi-Sectoral macroeconomic Integrated Assessment Models as tools to capture the key drivers of structural change and we conduct a multi-model study to assess main structural effects – changes of the sectoral composition and intensity of trade of global and regional economies – in a baseline and 2°C policy scenario by 2050. First, the range of baseline projections across models, for which we identify the main drivers, illustrates the uncertainty on future economic pathways – in emerging economies especially – and inform on plausible alternative futures with implications for energy use and emissions. Second, in all models, climate policy in the 2°C scenario imposes only a second-order impact on the economic structure at the macro-sectoral level – agriculture, manufacturing and services - compared to changes modelled in the baseline. However, this hides more radical changes for individual industries – within the energy sector especially. The study, which adopts a top-down framing of global structural change, represents a starting point to kick-start a conversation and propose a new research agenda seeking to improve understanding of the structural change effects in socio-economic and mitigation scenarios, and better inform policy assessments. 相似文献
18.
Anticipation methods and tools are increasingly used to try to imagine and govern transformations towards more sustainable futures across different policy domains and sectors. But there is a lack of research into the steering effects of anticipation on present-day governance choices, especially in the face of urgently needed sustainability transformations. This paper seeks to understand how different perspectives on anticipatory governance connect to attempts to guide policy and action toward transformative change. We analyze perspectives on anticipatory governance in a global network of food system foresight practitioners (Foresight4Food) – using a workshop, interviews, and a survey as our sources of data. We connect frameworks on anticipatory governance and on transformation to analyse different perspectives on the future and their implications for actions in the present to transform food systems and offer new insights for theory and practice. In the global Foresight4Food network, we find that most foresight practitioners use hybrid approaches to anticipatory governance that combine fundamentally different assumptions about the future. We also find that despite these diverse food futures, anticipation processes predominantly produce recommendations that follow more prediction-oriented forms of strategic planning in order to mitigate future risks. We further demonstrate that much anticipation for transformation uses the language on deep uncertainty and deliberative action without fully taking its consequences on board. Thus, opportunities for transforming future food systems are missed due to these implicit assumptions that dominate the anticipatory governance of food systems. Our combined framework helps researchers and practitioners to be more reflexive of how assumptions about key human systems such as food system futures shape what is prioritized/marginalized and included/excluded in actions to transform such systems. 相似文献
19.
20.
《Climate Policy》2002,2(2-3):145-159
Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), adaptation has recently gained importance, yet adaptation is much less developed than mitigation as a policy response. Adaptation research has been used to help answer to related but distinct questions. (1) To what extent can adaptation reduce impacts of climate change? (2) What adaptation policies are needed, and how can they best be developed, applied and funded? For the first question, the emphasis is on the aggregate value of adaptation so that this may be used to estimate net impacts. An important purpose is to compare net impacts with the costs of mitigation. In the second question, the emphasis is on the design and prioritisation of adaptation policies and measures. While both types of research are conducted in a policy context, they differ in their character, application, and purpose. The impacts/mitigation research is orientated towards the physical and biological science of impacts and adaptation, while research on the ways and means of adaptation is focussed on the social and economic determinants of vulnerability in a development context. The main purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how the national adaptation studies carried under the UNFCCC are broadening the paradigm, from the impacts/mitigation to vulnerability/adaptation. For this to occur, new policy research is needed. While the broad new directions of both research and policy can now be discerned, there remain a number of outstanding issues to be considered. 相似文献