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1.
Sue Walker 《Climatic change》2005,70(1-2):311-318
Agricultural meteorologists are concerned with many operational aspects of the effects of climate on crop production, livestock,
and natural resource management. For them to continue to make a contribution to the economy of a country they must continually
sharpen their skills and remain updated on the latest available information. Training should include a variety of skills,
including transferable skills (e.g. communication, numeracy), professional skills (including cognitive skills) and information
technology skills. Problem-based learning can be used to promote critical thinking, decision making and analytical skills.
More use should be made of computer-aided learning for agricultural meteorologists’ in-service training. In particular, the
Internet or CDs could be used to disseminate specific recently developed techniques and applications to improve the understanding
of the variability in climate and its effect on agricultural production and natural resource management. Examples that can
address the vulnerability of farmers include crop–climate matching, the use of indices, crop modelling and risk assessment
together with seasonal outlooks. A strategy needs to be formulated to address these needs and implement changes in the education
and training of agricultural meteorologists. These training needs must be constantly updated to meet the changing demands
of new technology to cope with climate change and climate variability. 相似文献
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自2016年起,我国大力推进气象业务向"智能化、无缝隙、精准化"发展。2017年宁夏积极推进智能网格预报业务体系建设,在网格预报智能订正、主客观融合订正、格点/站点/落区一体化、灾害天气智能识别等方面开展了一些尝试,取得了一定的成果,目前各项成果均引入到宁夏智能化天气预报业务平台中。其中一项关键技术,是智能网格预报的时空协调一致技术。该项技术在主客观融合订正、格点/站点/落区一体化中发挥了重要作用。本文重点针对这一关键技术的设计思路和实现方法进行介绍、讨论。 相似文献
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Anna Lawrence 《Global Environmental Change》2009,19(2):173-179
Biological recording is a long-established feature of amateur natural history in Britain. Phenology (the recording of seasonal events) in particular has provided scientists with important long-term data sets. These data are of increasing interest as indicators of climate change and its impacts. Most scientists treat the data as the object of interest, while less attention has been paid to the two-way process of knowledge creation, and the significance of the inner, personal part of that. Phenological recording provides an interesting window on this because it is relatively straightforward (and therefore involves a wider range of people than more technically demanding recording), and because it is linked to the climate change discourse (and therefore connected with emotional and moral framings of the situation). This paper describes the rise of popular phenology in the UK and explores these dynamically related aspects of knowledge creation by drawing on accounts in the media and by participants. It concludes that reflexivity and credibility are important aspects of both personal and interpersonal meaning-making, and suggests that attention to both subjective integration of data, and the scale of local cultures of knowledge, are important in understanding the potential for connecting networks of citizen science. Phenology therefore appears to have a particular role to play in public understanding of climate change, which extends beyond the merely extractive collection of data to a more deeply integrated connection between observation and meaning. 相似文献
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Consumers’ knowledge about climate change 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Several studies have unveiled various misconceptions about climate change that the public holds, for instance, confusion about climate change and ozone depletion. However, so far, there has been no uniform and standardized way to measure climate-related knowledge, which complicates comparisons between different countries or samples. To develop an extensive knowledge scale, we therefore examined the Swiss public??s understanding of climate change in a mail survey and related this scale to attitudes toward climate change. We thereby aimed to consider a broad range of climate-related knowledge, namely physical knowledge about CO2 and the greenhouse effect, knowledge about climate change and its causes, knowledge about the expected consequences of climate change, and action-related knowledge. The questionnaire included items of different degrees of difficulty, ranging from knowledge that is covered by newspapers to experts?? knowledge. Our findings indicate that people still hold several misconceptions, although people??s knowledge related to CO2 seems to have increased compared to previous studies. Of all knowledge subscales, knowledge about climate change and causes was most strongly related to attitudes toward climate change. 相似文献
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ＴｈｅＰｒｅｓｅｎｔＳｔａｔｕｓａｎｄＦｕｔｕｒｅｏｆＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｆｔｈｅＥａｓｔＡｓｉａｎＭｏｎｓｏｏｎＭａＨｅｎｉａｎ（马鹤年）ＣｈｉｎａＭｅｔｅｏｒｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌＡｄｍｉｎｉｓｔｒａｔｉｏｎ，Ｂｅｉｊｉｎｇ１０００８１ＤｉｎｇＹｉｈｕｉ... 相似文献
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The ability of Māori to understand, record and forecast weather and climate has been an important factor in successfully responding
to past weather and climatic change in New Zealand. Through interacting with local environments over the centuries Māori have
developed a wealth of environmental knowledge, with the lessons learnt having been incorporated into traditional and modern
practices of agriculture, fishing, medicine, education and conservation. In partnership with the tribal group Te Whānau-ā-Apanui,
NIWA’s Māori Research and Development Unit (Te Kuwaha o Taihoro Nukurangi) have initiated a pilot project to identify and
document Māori environmental knowledge (MEK) of weather and climate in New Zealand. Using a Kaupapa Māori based research approach
and semi-directive interviewing, an intimate understanding of local weather and climate was demonstrated by elders from Te
Whānau-ā-Apanui. This knowledge includes the use of a vast indigenous nomenclature for local weather and climate phenomenon,
the oral recording of weather and climate based events and trends, and the identification of environmental indicators to forecast
weather and climate. Learning from this knowledge provides an opportunity to understand what has helped Māori adapt to weather
and climate variability in the past. It also provides clues on how to enhance present day Māori and western scientific understanding
of local weather and climate in New Zealand.
An erratum to this article can be found at 相似文献
11.
有关南半球大气环流与东亚气候的关系研究的若干新进展 总被引：14，自引：15，他引：14
南半球大气环流是全球大气环流的重要组成部分,也是影响气候变化和亚洲季风系统的一个重要因素.中国气象学家很早就注意到南半球大气环流对东亚夏季风降水的影响.近年来,有关南半球气候变率的研究目前正受到世界气象学家越来越多的关注.南半球中高纬大气资料的丰富及南极涛动的确定,使得认识南半球高中纬环流的年际变动规律及其与东亚气候关系成为可能.本文主要介绍近年来有关南极涛动的年际变化与沙尘天气发生频次及东亚冬春季气候的关系,古气候资料揭示的南极涛动与华北降水的关系,以及南半球大气环流与长江中下游夏季降水的关系和南极涛动变率的可预测性等方面的研究进展.并对未来研究方向作了初步的展望. 相似文献
12.
Does ??climate change?? seem like a less serious problem than ??global warming?? to Americans and Europeans? Does describing the costs of climate change mitigation in terms of ??higher taxes?? instead of ??higher prices?? reduce public support for such efforts? In an experiment embedded in an American national survey, respondents were randomly assigned to rate the seriousness of ??global warming,?? ??climate change,?? or ??global climate change.?? Contrary to predictions made by a leading political strategist, the full sample and political Independents perceived ??climate change?? and ??global warming?? to be equally serious. Among Republicans, ??climate change?? was perceived to be more serious than ??global warming,?? whereas the reverse was true among Democrats. A similar experiment embedded in a survey of residents of 31 European countries showed that ??global warming?? and ??climate change?? were perceived to be equally serious problems. And an experiment embedded in an American survey showed that describing the increased costs of climate change mitigation legislation via ??higher taxes?? instead of via ??higher prices?? did not reduce popular support for such legislation, also contradicting a political strategy memo. Thus, word choice may sometimes affect public perceptions of the climate change seriousness or support for mitigation policies, but a single choice of terminology may not influence all people the same way, making strategic language choices difficult to implement. 相似文献
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Place attachment, the emotional bonds that people form to significant places, influences adaptation to climate change. Within this context, weather is garnering greater attention for its dynamic, mediating role, yet its political and cultural significance remains under-researched. Here we draw on Serres and McCarren’s (1992) idea of the Natural Contract and Vannini et al.’s (2012) contributions on weathering to integrate contractarianism with a deep account of people’s relationship with weather in place. We analyse attitudes and adaptation to climate change in communities of the geographically-remote and climate-vulnerable Outer Hebrides in Scotland, using video-elicitation to generate data on significant places. Our results show that changing, difficult and unpredictable weather binds people to place and influences how they think about themselves, their place and adaptation in dynamic ways. Through this connection, we demonstrate that people knowingly enter into what we term Weather Contracts and that accepting the volatility of the weather allows people to react positively to changes brought with climate. Finally, we show that the common ideology of a community living with weather generates wider discourses around independence and resisting modernisation that we term a weathered ideology. Thus, climate change is not always a destabilising force. For those who are accustomed to changing weather it can be a dimension of place around which people can organise. Uncertainty and anxiety about the future of the climate is caused more by a lack of control over adaptation processes than by a fear of unknown weather. This has implications for people living at the margins across the globe, where unpredictable weather is a part of local identities, but influence on adaptation policy making is low. 相似文献
14.
Community structure and dynamics in climate networks 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Anastasios A. Tsonis Geli Wang Kyle L. Swanson Francisco A. Rodrigues Luciano da Fontura Costa 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(5-6):933-940
We consider climate networks constructed from observed and model simulated fields of three climate variables and investigate their community structure. We find that for all fields the number of effective communities is rather small (four to five). We are able to trace the origin of these communities to certain dynamical properties of climate. Our results suggest that the complete complexity of the climate system condenses beyond the ??weather?? time scales into a small number of low-dimensional interacting components and provide clues as to the nature of the climate subsystems underlying these components. 相似文献
15.
天气预报的公众评价与发布形式的变革 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
通过分析一位公众批评当地电视天气预报的事例,提出应该逐步改变天气预报制作和发布服务方式的问题。由于大气系统的混沌性以及观测和模式的不准确性,天气预报不可能做到100%的准确。因此,预报的不确定性是必然的。不定量地把不确定性表达出来,一个预报是不完备的。有了预报的不确定度,不同的用户就能根据自身对气象条件的依赖程度来作出不同的最佳决策以达到最好的经济和社会效益。当然,要成功地完成从当前的决定论观点到随机论观点的转变,教育和培训是关键。 相似文献
16.
Penehuro Fatu Lefale 《Climatic change》2010,100(2):317-335
This paper examines traditional ecological knowledge of weather and climate in Samoa, a Polynesian community in the South
Pacific. The research found Samoans have their own unique seasonal calendar. The Samoan seasonal calendar is predominantly
based on the observations of local environmental changes, which are in turn influenced by weather and climate. Monitoring
changes in plants and animal behaviour, for example, are key indicators used by the Samoans to forecast changes in weather
and climate. In addition, their communal and family social activities like hunting, fishing and feasting are driven by the
seasonal calendar. The Samoans knowledge of cloud formation, conditions conducive to the formation and onset of severe weather
systems and seasonal changes in climate, helped them anticipate, plan and adapt to extreme weather and climate events. The
ability and knowledge of the Samoans to forecast the onset of extreme weather and climate events, relying predominantly on
local environmental changes are vital tools that should be incorporated in the formulation of human induced climate change
adaptation strategies. 相似文献
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This paper investigates how transportation sector managers perceive and utilize climate science, and subsequently, how they appropriate the climate change problem. The analysis focuses on which devices they qualify as useful for translating between knowledge, policy and practice concluding with a discussion of what this suggests in the development of efficient climate adaptation strategies. The paper demonstrates that although transportation sector managers accept the findings of climate science knowledge presented to them, their understanding of the climate change problem and the range of qualifying anchoring devices used in the development of climate adaption strategies are differentiated according to where they are located in the institutional context. For transportation sector managers on the regional and district level, the climate problem is largely perceived through the occurrence of extreme weather rather than through climate science. However, this knowledge basis is not considered sufficient to support ‘knowing how to act’ and has resulted in waiting for the authorities to make standards and regulations that would translate climate change knowledge into methods of practice. We argue that the development of standards and regulations might be underestimated in relation to user demands in climate adaptation work that involves reconciling scientific information. 相似文献
19.
The problems on evolution of large-scale disturbances and their interaction with mean flow recently attract much effort of meteorologists due to their practical importance in weather and climate predictions. In this paper, some theoretical results obtained in current investigations of these problems will be reviewed. A barotropic atmosphere is taken in this paper, and the baroclinic atmosphere is left in our second paper.The following aspects are reviewed: First, the general properties of two-dimensional barotropic motion both in the nonlinear and linearized equations and both in the quasi-geostrophic and non-geostrophic models. Second, the evolution and the structure of Rossby wave packet superimposed on a zonal or non-zonal basic flow.In this part, only the above two problems are reviewed. The rernanent problems, i.e., the normal modes and continuous spectra of both quasi-geostrophic and non-geostrophic models, weakly nonlinear theory and the fully nonlinear theory will be discussed in part II (another paper). 相似文献
20.
定量评估极端天气影响农业总产值的方法 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
选取对极端天气敏感性和脆弱性较高的农业领域为研究对象,将极端天气因子和农业生产因子引入Cobb-Douglas生产函数,构建气候经济模型,定量分析了极端天气事件对浙江省农业总产值的影响。结果表明：极端天气因子与浙江省农业总产值存在长期均衡关系,对农业总产值有显著的负面影响。高温日数、低温日数、强降水日数每增加1%,浙江农业总产值分别减少0.072%、0.046%、0.076%;高温日数和强降水日数的短期波动对农业总产值也有显著的负面影响;不同区域的农业总产值受极端天气影响程度存在差异,浙江西北地区和西南地区相对东部沿海地区受极端天气影响更为严重。 相似文献