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The literature on climate change from an enhanced greenhouse effect is large and growing rapidly. The problems considered are increasingly inter-disciplinary. For these reasons many workers will find useful pointers to the literature in the fields interacting with, but outside of, their own. We present here an annotated bibliography on issues relating to changes in the concentrations of Earth's greenhouse gases. The areas covered include theory and numerical modelling of climate change; cycles involving carbon dioxide and other radiatively important trace gases; observations of climate change and the problems associated with those observations; paleoclimatology as it relates to previous changes in the greenhouse gases; the impacts on and interactions with managed and natural ecosystems from climate change; policy issues related to climate change and to the limitation of climate change; history of the study of the greenhouse effect; and some other causes of climate change. Selection of papers has been made to facilitate rapid introduction to most of the important issues and findings in an area. Over 600 articles, reports, and books are discussed. 相似文献
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This study presents a comparison of the water vapor and clear-sky greenhouse effect dependence on sea surface temperature for climate variations of different types. Firstly, coincident satellite observations and meteorological analyses are used to examine seasonal and interannual variations and to evaluate the performance of a general circulation model. Then, this model is used to compare the results inferred from the analysis of observed climate variability with those derived from global climate warming experiments. One part of the coupling between the surface temperature, the water vapor and the clear-sky greenhouse effect is explained by the dependence of the saturation water vapor pressure on the atmospheric temperature. However, the analysis of observed and simulated fields shows that the coupling is very different according to the type of region under consideration and the type of climate forcing that is applied to the Earth-atmosphere system. This difference, due to the variability of the vertical structure of the atmosphere, is analyzed in detail by considering the temperature lapse rate and the vertical profile of relative humidity. Our results suggest that extrapolating the feedbacks inferred from seasonal and short-term interannual climate variability to longer-term climate changes requires great caution. It is argued that our confidence in climate models' predictions would be increased significantly if the basic physical processes that govern the variability of the vertical structure of the atmosphere, and its relation to the large-scale circulation, were better understood and simulated. For this purpose, combined observational and numerical studies focusing on physical processes are needed. 相似文献
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人类活动对气候影响的研究Ⅱ.对东亚和中国气候变化的影响 总被引：21，自引：6，他引：15
系统总结和介绍了20世纪90年代以来作者所开展的有关人类活动对东亚和中国气候影响的一系列研究活动.其中包括温室气体辐射强迫及其气候效应,大气微量气体的全球增温潜能,对流层和平流层气溶胶的辐射气候效应,气候系统外部因子对中国气候影响的总体评估,人类活动对中国和东亚地区未来气候变化的影响,以及20世纪和21世纪东亚及中国的气候变化.同时给出了一系列研究成果,这些研究成果对于正确认识和准确预测东亚地区以及中国气候变化具有十分重要的意义. 相似文献
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Holger Göttel Jörn Alexander Elke Keup-Thiel Diana Rechid Stefan Hagemann Tanja Blome Annett Wolf Daniela Jacob 《Climatic change》2008,87(1-2):35-50
In the context of the EU-Project BALANCE () the regional climate model REMO was used for extensive calculations of the Barents Sea climate to investigate the vulnerability
of this region to climate change. The regional climate model REMO simulated the climate change of the Barents Sea Region between
1961 and 2100 (Control and Climate Change run, CCC-Run). REMO on ~50 km horizontal resolution was driven by the transient
ECHAM4/OPYC3 IPCC SRES B2 scenario. The output of the CCC-Run was applied to drive the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS.
The results of the vegetation model were used to repeat the CCC-Run with dynamic vegetation fields. The feedback effect of
the modified vegetation on the climate change signal is investigated and discussed with focus on precipitation, temperature
and snow cover. The effect of the offline coupled vegetation feedback run is much lower than the greenhouse gas effect. 相似文献
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太阳是地球流体(大气和海洋等)运动的最终能量源,地球环境,尤其是气候的变化不能不与太阳活动有关.目前,普遍将全球增暖归结为温室气体含量增加所导致的温室效应的加剧,这无疑是有一定依据和有道理的.但从科学上来讲,人类活动所引起温室气体增加的影响,并非是唯一原因.基于已有的一些研究结果,从太阳活动的观点所进行的初步分析表明,太阳活动也可能是引起近世纪全球增暖的另一个重要原因.太阳活动的影响主要包括太阳辐射的直接影响和引发地磁场变化的间接影响两个方面,地球磁场的变化将可通过动力过程和热力过程而影响大气环流和气候的变化. 相似文献
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Beginning in the mid-1990s, re-eutrophication has reemerged as severe problems in Lake Erie. Controlling non-point source (NPS) nutrient pollution from cropland, especially dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), is the key to restore water quality in Lake Erie. To address NPS pollution, previous studies have analyzed the effectiveness of alternative spatially optimal land use and management strategies (represented as agricultural conservation practices (CPs)). However, few studies considered both strategies and have analyzed and compared their sensitivity to expected changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change and increased greenhouse gas concentrations. In this study, we evaluated impacts of climatic change on the economic efficiency of these strategies for DRP abatement, using an integrated modeling approach that includes a watershed model, an economic valuation component, and a spatial optimization model. A series of climate projections representing relatively high greenhouse gas emission scenarios was developed for the western Lake Erie basin to drive the watershed model. We found that performance of solutions optimized for current climate was degraded significantly under projected future climate conditions. In terms of robustness of individual strategies, CPs alone were more robust to climate change than land use change alone or together with CPs, but relying on CPs alone fails to achieve a high (>?71%) DRP reduction target. A combination of CPs and land use changes was required to achieve policy goals for DRP reductions (targeted at ~?78%). Our results point to the need for future spatial optimization studies and planning to consider adaptive capacity of conservation actions under a changing climate. 相似文献
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A coupled model study on the intensification of the Asian summer monsoon in IPCC SRES Scenarios 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Asian summer monsoon is an important part of the climate system. Investigating the response of the Asian summer monsoon to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols will be meaningful to understand and predict climate variability and climate change not only in Asia but also globally. In order to diagnose the impacts of future anthropogenic emissions on monsoon climates, a coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and the ocean has been used at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology. In addition to carbon dioxide, the major well mixed greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide, several chlorofluorocarbons, and CFC substitute gases are prescribed as a function of time. The sulfur cycle is simulated interactively, and both the direct aerosol effect and the indirect cloud albedo effect are considered. Furthermore, changes in tropospheric ozone have been pre-calculated with a chemical transport model and prescribed as a function of time and space in the climate simulations. Concentrations of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide are prescribed according to observations （1860-1990） and projected into the future （1990-2100） according to the Scenarios A2 and B2 in Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES, Nakcenovic et al., 2000） developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）. It is found that the Indian summer monsoon is enhanced in the scenarios in terms of both mean precipitation and interannual variability. An increase in precipitation is simulated for northern China but a decrease for the southern part. Furthermore, the simulated future increase in monsoon variability seems to be linked to enhanced ENSO variability towards the end of the scenario integrations. 相似文献
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Keith Colls 《Climatic change》1993,25(3-4):225-245
Weather and climate have a significant impact on the Australian society and environment. While the impacts of major changes in the Australian climate likely to occur from the enhanced greenhouse effect have been reported in the literature fewer studies have addressed the impact of the climate's natural variability. Ways in which weather and climate and its variability impact on the decision making process are described and methods available to assess the sensitivity of the economy and the natural environment are also presented. Methods which are being developed to determine the value of weather and climate information to decision makers are briefly described. The El Niño Southern Oscillation is a strong contributor to the variability of the Australian climate. It is used to illustrate the impact of climate variability on both the economy and natural environment of Australia. Finally, the extent to which there is political awareness of the impact of climate variability on the Australian society and environment is briefly examined. 相似文献
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The popular picture of the greenhouse effect emphasises the radiation transfer but fails to explain the observed climate change. An old conceptual model for the greenhouse effect is revisited and presented as a useful resource in climate change communication. It is validated against state-of-the-art data, and nontraditional diagnostics show a physically consistent picture. The earth’s climate is constrained by well-known and elementary physical principles, such as energy balance, flow, and conservation. Greenhouse gases affect the atmospheric optical depth for infrared radiation, and increased opacity implies higher altitude from which earth’s equivalent bulk heat loss takes place. Such an increase is seen in the reanalyses, and the outgoing long-wave radiation has become more diffuse over time, consistent with an increased influence of greenhouse gases on the vertical energy flow from the surface to the top of the atmosphere. The reanalyses further imply increases in the overturning in the troposphere, consistent with a constant and continuous vertical energy flow. The increased overturning can explain a slowdown in the global warming, and the association between these aspects can be interpreted as an entanglement between the greenhouse effect and the hydrological cycle, where reduced energy transfer associated with increased opacity is compensated by tropospheric overturning activity. 相似文献