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1.
《Global Environmental Change》2007,17(2):191-206
A generalized vulnerability framework was used to structure an interdisciplinary and intercultural examination of factors that influence the ways in which reindeer pastoralism in Finnmark (northern Norway) may be affected by climate change. Regional and local (downscaled) climate projections included scenarios that can potentially influence foraging conditions for reindeer. None of the projections were without precedent; several climate change events in Finnmark during the last 100 years were at least as great as those projected in the next 20–30 years. Herders’ traditional responses to changes in both the natural and the socio-economic environments have depended on a flexibility in herding practice that is currently being eroded by several non-climate factors. The reduced of freedom of action resulting from loss of habitat, predation and aspects of governance (especially economic and legal constraints) potentially dwarves the putative effects of projected climate change on reindeer pastoralism. It may, however, also lead to situations in which new climatic conditions threaten the system in unprecedented ways. Developing appropriate methodologies for assessing the adaptive capacity, the vulnerability and the resilience of social–ecological systems to global changes remains a challenge. Recognition of the knowledge systems of Arctic cultures and the full engagement of local people throughout the process are key elements of the solution. 相似文献
2.
Reindeer husbandry represents a major land use in the Barents region, and has been predicted to be adversely affected by climate
change. This paper considers the likely response of reindeer husbandry to changes both in climate and in socio-economic circumstances
in the four countries of the Barents region from 1990 to 2080. Key natural factors include vegetation distribution, and a
range of meteorological variables including temperature, wind, snow cover and freezing of rivers. The potential impact of
these factors is evaluated quantitatively using the tolerable windows method, the results of which indicate a general but
spatially non-uniform decline in the suitability of the region for reindeer husbandry. Relevant socio-economic factors include
regional patterns of politics, management and knowledge. A focus on herders’ own perceptions of environmental change and flexibility
of response, derived particularly from study sites in Russia, suggests that models of vulnerability to climate change should
be tempered by paying greater attention to changes in socio-economic factors. When compared with the potential effect of changing
these socioeconomic factors, the vulnerability of reindeer husbandry to projected climate change appears to be comparatively
small. 相似文献
3.
Examining barriers and opportunities for sustainable adaptation to climate change in Interior Alaska
Shannon M. McNeeley 《Climatic change》2012,111(3-4):835-857
Human adaptation to climate change is comprised of “adjustments” in response to (or anticipation of) climatic impacts. Adaptation does not necessarily imply favorable or equitable change, nor does it automatically imply sustainable use of ecosystems. “Sustainable adaptation” in this case implies strategic, collective action to respond to or anticipate harmful climate change to reduce disruption to key resource flows and adverse effects on general well-being. This research examined social-ecological system responses to recent warming trends in the remote northwest region of Interior Alaska using a unique vulnerability and adaptive capacity assessment (VA) approach that integrated indigenous observations and understanding of climate (IC) with western social and natural sciences. The study found that Alaska Native communities that were historically highly mobile and flexible across the landscape for subsistence hunting are increasingly restricted by the institutional rigidity of the regulatory system for wildlife and subsistence management. This has resulted in negative impacts to game harvest access and success threatening food security and community well-being. This suggests that policies limiting the ability of natural resource-dependent societies to be flexible, diversify, or innovate can threaten livelihoods and exacerbate vulnerability. Nevertheless, opportunities for sustainable adaptation exist where wildlife management is adaptive and includes an understanding of and response to climate variability and slow-onset climate change with the human dimensions of subsistence hunting for more effective “in-season” management. 相似文献
4.
We develop a systems framework for exploring adaptation pathways to climate change among people in remote and marginalized regions. The framework builds on two common and seemingly paradoxical narratives about people in remote regions. The first is recognition that people in remote regions demonstrate significant resilience to climate and resource variability, and may therefore be among the best equipped to adapt to climate change. The second narrative is that many people in remote regions are chronically disadvantaged and therefore are among the most vulnerable to climate change impacts. These narratives, taken in isolation and in extremis, can have significant maladaptive policy and practice implications. From a systems perspective, both narratives may be valid, because they form elements of latent and dominant feedback loops that require articulation for a nuanced understanding of vulnerability-reducing and resilience-building responses in a joint framework. Through literature review and community engagement across three remote regions on different continents, we test the potential of the framework to assist dialogue about adaptation pathways in remote marginalized communities. In an adaptation pathway view, short-term responses to vulnerability can risk locking in a pathway that increases specific resilience but creates greater vulnerability in the long-term. Equally, longer-term actions towards increasing desirable forms of resilience need to take account of short-term realities to respond to acute and multiple needs of marginalized remote communities. The framework was useful in uniting vulnerability and resilience narratives, and broadening the scope for adaptation policy and action on adaptation pathways for remote regions. 相似文献
5.
The vulnerability of native rangeland plant species to global climate change in the West Asia and North African regions 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of selected native species from two areas from West Asia and North Africa. Three species representing two genera were selected for assessment of their vulnerability to climate change. The first species was Salsola vermiculata L. which is common to both study areas. The second genus was represented by two species, Haloxylon salicornicum (Moq.) Bunge from the Syrian rangelands and H. schmittianum Pomel from southern Tunisia. To assess the vulnerability of these species to climate change we used ecological-based models. The data inputs were composed of the species occurrence data and the environmental data which included eight climatic layers, three soil property layers in addition to an altitude layer. Since environmental parameters only enable assessing the sensitivity of target species to climate change, a grazing pressure layer was used to assess the species vulnerability. Only climatic parameters were considered as changing across three periods; current situation, 2020 and 2050. The main results indicated that threatened range species, such as S. vermiculata which were subjected to continuous grazing pressure, showed high vulnerability to climate change as expressed by the predicted decrease in the areas of their distribution. However, species with low palatability and broad ecological niches (i.e. H. salicornicum and H. schmittianum) had an advantage due to the reduced competition for water and nutrients. An adaptation strategy to increase the resilience of the most vulnerable species should involve management of grazing pressure and the establishment of other mitigation measures. 相似文献
6.
Scholarly networks on resilience,vulnerability and adaptation within the human dimensions of global environmental change 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
《Global Environmental Change》2006,16(3):240-252
This paper presents the results of a bibliometric analysis of the knowledge domains resilience, vulnerability and adaptation within the research activities on human dimensions of global environmental change. We analyzed how 2286 publications between 1967 and 2005 are related in terms of co-authorship relations, and citation relations.The number of publications in the three knowledge domains increased rapidly between 1995 and 2005. However, the resilience knowledge domain is only weakly connected with the other two domains in terms of co-authorships and citations. The resilience knowledge domain has a background in ecology and mathematics with a focus on theoretical models, while the vulnerability and adaptation knowledge domains have a background in geography and natural hazards research with a focus on case studies and climate change research. There is an increasing number of cross citations and papers classified in multiple knowledge domains. This seems to indicate an increasing integration of the different knowledge domains. 相似文献
7.
Rasmus Heltberg Paul Bennett Siegel Steen Lau Jorgensen 《Global Environmental Change》2009,19(1):89-99
This paper presents and applies a conceptual framework to address human vulnerability to climate change. Drawing upon social risk management and asset-based approaches, the conceptual framework provides a unifying lens to examine links between risks, adaptation, and vulnerability. The result is an integrated approach to increase the capacity of society to manage climate risks with a view to reduce the vulnerability of households and maintain or increase the opportunities for sustainable development. We identify ‘no-regrets’ adaptation interventions, meaning actions that generate net social benefits under all future scenarios of climate change and impacts. We also make the case for greater support for community-based adaptation and social protection and propose a research agenda. 相似文献
8.
IPCC发布的《气候变化2014：影响、适应和脆弱性》进一步提升了国际社会对于适应气候变化和可持续发展的认识水平,主要表现在：适应气候变化的研究视角从自然生态脆弱性转向更为广泛的社会经济脆弱性及人类的响应能力;阐明了气候风险与社会发展的关系,明确了适应在气候灾害风险管理中的积极作用;提出了减少脆弱性和暴露度及增加气候恢复能力的有效适应原则;提出了适应极限的概念,指出这一概念对于适应气候变化的政策含义;提出了保障社会可持续发展的气候恢复能力路径;强调要注重适应与减缓的协同作用和综合效应,指出转型适应是应对气候变化影响的必要选择。报告认为,气候变化、影响、适应及社会经济过程不再是一个简单的单向线性关系,需要纳入统一的系统框架下予以认识和理解。 相似文献
9.
10.
Vulnerability 总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12
《Global Environmental Change》2006,16(3):268-281
This paper reviews research traditions of vulnerability to environmental change and the challenges for present vulnerability research in integrating with the domains of resilience and adaptation. Vulnerability is the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt. Antecedent traditions include theories of vulnerability as entitlement failure and theories of hazard. Each of these areas has contributed to present formulations of vulnerability to environmental change as a characteristic of social-ecological systems linked to resilience. Research on vulnerability to the impacts of climate change spans all the antecedent and successor traditions. The challenges for vulnerability research are to develop robust and credible measures, to incorporate diverse methods that include perceptions of risk and vulnerability, and to incorporate governance research on the mechanisms that mediate vulnerability and promote adaptive action and resilience. These challenges are common to the domains of vulnerability, adaptation and resilience and form common ground for consilience and integration. 相似文献
11.
As scores of climate change adaptation measures are implemented around the world, there have been growing calls among academics and practitioners to also address the processes that underpin human vulnerability to climate change. However, there is mounting evidence that adaptation and vulnerability are linked, such that ostensibly adaptive responses can have negative consequences and augment people’s vulnerability. We analyzed several climate change responses at various scales and developed a typology of five discrete but related modes by which the vulnerability of already vulnerable populations is being [re]produced. Crucially, this work suggests that for at least one of these modes, the vulnerability of other groups is perversely inverted, such that relatively secure populations perceive themselves to be at risk. The cases we present illustrate that people’s vulnerability is being used against them, or put another way, is being weaponized―exacerbating their precarity by excluding them from much needed and due assistance, while directing resources instead to bolstering the well-being of those already well-positioned to respond to climate threats. Our typology provides a theoretical intervention by illustrating how climate vulnerability and security are co-produced, as well as a practical tool to help decision makers to adopt more just and equitable climate policies. 相似文献
12.
Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability studies tend to confine their attention to impacts and responses within the same geographical region. However, this approach ignores cross-border climate change impacts that occur remotely from the location of their initial impact and that may severely disrupt societies and livelihoods. We propose a conceptual framework and accompanying nomenclature for describing and analysing such cross-border impacts. The conceptual framework distinguishes an initial impact that is caused by a climate trigger within a specific region. Downstream consequences of that impact propagate through an impact transmission system while adaptation responses to deal with the impact propagate through a response transmission system. A key to understanding cross-border impacts and responses is a recognition of different types of climate triggers, categories of cross-border impacts, the scales and dynamics of impact transmission, the targets and dynamics of responses and the socio-economic and environmental context that also encompasses factors and processes unrelated to climate change. These insights can then provide a basis for identifying relevant causal relationships. We apply the framework to the floods that affected industrial production in Thailand in 2011, and to projected Arctic sea ice decline, and demonstrate that the framework can usefully capture the complex system dynamics of cross-border climate impacts. It also provides a useful mechanism to identify and understand adaptation strategies and their potential consequences in the wider context of resilience planning. The cross-border dimensions of climate impacts could become increasingly important as climate changes intensify. We conclude that our framework will allow for these to be properly accounted for, help to identify new areas of empirical and model-based research and thereby support climate risk management. 相似文献
13.
Aleksandra Conevska James Ford Alexandra Lesnikowski Sherilee Harper 《Climate Policy》2019,19(1):43-58
Investments in adaptation are required to reduce vulnerability and strengthen the resilience of food systems to the impacts of climate change. For low-income nations, international financing plays a central role in supporting adaptation. In this article, we document and examine adaptation projects targeting food systems financed through funding bodies of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). We find that between 2004 and 2015, 3% (n?=?96) of adaptation projects supported through the UNFCCC explicitly focused on the production, processing, distribution, preparation and/or consumption of food, with US$546 m mobilized through funding bodies directly and US$1.44bn through co-financing. Agriculture is the most common sector supported, with extreme weather events the primary climate change-related impact motivating nations to apply for adaptation financing. The majority of actions are documented to adapt the food production component of food systems, with limited focus within projects on the full range of food system vulnerability and the implications on food security.Key policy insights
Enhanced international adaptation financing targeting food systems is needed, and in particular financing to address limited adaptation readiness
Supported food system projects should include holistic assessments of the entire food system in order to prioritize sector and food system component issue areas for short- and long-term efficiency
To better analyse food system linkages and aid in the prioritization of adaptation activities, adaptation-directed funds should consider placing a higher emphasis on a cross-sectoral approach within projects
Linkages between official development assistance and adaptation-directed funds could help optimize financing for food systems and mainstream food system adaptation efforts
14.
Vulnerability of and risk to water resources in arid and semi-arid regions of West China under a scenario of climate change 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
This paper quantifies the vulnerability of and risk to water resources (VRWR) under a scenario of climate change in the arid and semi-arid region of West China. A new approach integrating hazard, sensitivity, resilience, exposure and risk is developed to assess the VRWR from climate change. Drought is regarded as the key hazard, with its frequency and severity defined using a surface humidity index. Exposure is quantitatively linked with indicators of population and social and economic characteristics using statistical and Geographical Information System (GIS) methodologies. Risk is defined as the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, while vulnerability is treated as a function of sensitivity and adaptation. Vulnerability and risk in the water resources system in the coming 20 years are assessed for the RCP 4.5 scenario. The results reveal that both hazard and exposure of water resources display strong spatial variation in the study area. High hazard and exposure are found in the northern Tianshan Mountain as well as the eastern part of Hexi Corridor. Water resources are particularly sensitive to variation in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in the upstream areas of Hexi Corridor, rivers in Central Asia, headwater streams of Tarim River and most of Chang Tang Plateau. Our assessment shows that there is high vulnerability of and risk to water resources in the study area, especially in the areas of Hexi Corridor, northern Tianshan Mountain and Tarim River. Under the RCP 4.5 climate change scenario, the vulnerability and risk decline over the entire area but remain at a serious level in inland rivers in Hexi Corridor, northern Tianshan Mountain and headwater streams of Tarim River. Thus, these areas are the highest priority for strengthening policy measures to adapt to climate change and reduce exposure and vulnerability and their risk to water resources. 相似文献
15.
Adaptation,adaptive capacity and vulnerability 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
《Global Environmental Change》2006,16(3):282-292
This paper reviews the concept of adaptation of human communities to global changes, especially climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity and vulnerability. It focuses on scholarship that contributes to practical implementation of adaptations at the community scale. In numerous social science fields, adaptations are considered as responses to risks associated with the interaction of environmental hazards and human vulnerability or adaptive capacity. In the climate change field, adaptation analyses have been undertaken for several distinct purposes. Impact assessments assume adaptations to estimate damages to longer term climate scenarios with and without adjustments. Evaluations of specified adaptation options aim to identify preferred measures. Vulnerability indices seek to provide relative vulnerability scores for countries, regions or communities. The main purpose of participatory vulnerability assessments is to identify adaptation strategies that are feasible and practical in communities. The distinctive features of adaptation analyses with this purpose are outlined, and common elements of this approach are described. Practical adaptation initiatives tend to focus on risks that are already problematic, climate is considered together with other environmental and social stresses, and adaptations are mostly integrated or mainstreamed into other resource management, disaster preparedness and sustainable development programs. 相似文献
16.
Jeremy S. Littell David L. Peterson Constance I. Millar Kathy A. O’Halloran 《Climatic change》2012,110(1-2):269-296
Developing appropriate management options for adapting to climate change is a new challenge for land managers, and integration of climate change concepts into operational management and planning on United States national forests is just starting. We established science–management partnerships on the Olympic National Forest (Washington) and Tahoe National Forest (California) in the first effort to develop adaptation options for specific national forests. We employed a focus group process in order to establish the scientific context necessary for understanding climate change and its anticipated effects, and to develop specific options for adapting to a warmer climate. Climate change scientists provided the scientific knowledge base on which adaptations could be based, and resource managers developed adaptation options based on their understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and management. General adaptation strategies developed by national forest managers include: (1) reduce vulnerability to anticipated climate-induced stress by increasing resilience at large spatial scales, (2) consider tradeoffs and conflicts that may affect adaptation success, (3) manage for realistic outcomes and prioritize treatments that facilitate adaptation to a warmer climate, (4) manage dynamically and experimentally, and (5) manage for structure and composition. Specific adaptation options include: (1) increase landscape diversity, (2) maintain biological diversity, (3) implement early detection/rapid response for exotic species and undesirable resource conditions, (4) treat large-scale disturbance as a management opportunity and integrate it in planning, (5) implement treatments that confer resilience at large spatial scales, (6) match engineering of infrastructure to expected future conditions, (7) promote education and awareness about climate change among resource staff and local publics, and (8) collaborate with a variety of partners on adaptation strategies and to promote ecoregional management. The process described here can quickly elicit a large amount of information relevant for adaptation to climate change, and can be emulated for other national forests, groups of national forests with similar resources, and other public lands. As adaptation options are iteratively generated for additional administrative units on public lands, management options can be compared, tested, and integrated into adaptive management. Science-based adaptation is imperative because increasing certainty about climate impacts and management outcomes may take decades. 相似文献
17.
Nicholas P. Webb Christopher J. Stokes Nadine A. Marshall 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):1164-1177
This paper demonstrates how biophysical and socio-economic assessments of adaptation options can be integrated to test the effectiveness of options and anticipate social risks and potential barriers to adoption. We present the approach by combining a model analysis with a multiple-criteria evaluation of 12 adaptation options by graziers from the Australian rangelands. Our results show that strategies to manage stocking rates and pasture spelling are likely to be effective in improving climate resilience in the rangelands and are easy-to-implement, short-term solutions. Improving land condition is found to have the greatest potential long-term benefits, but was not considered by the graziers to be feasible or effective due to perceived difficulties of implementation. Areas of concordance identified in the assessments may be used to engage with stakeholders and build a foundation for incorporating climate change considerations into management and policy. The approach also highlights discordant views within the assessments that may result from differing management objectives, adaptive capacity and climate-risk perception. These factors are potential impediments to adaptation. The integrated assessment approach enables adaptation strategies and policy recommendations to be developed that have greater relevance to individual stakeholders, and supports capacity building to facilitate the most effective adaptation actions. 相似文献
18.
Suzanne M. Prober Kevin R. Thiele Philip W. Rundel Colin J. Yates Sandra L. Berry Margaret Byrne Les Christidis Carl R. Gosper Pauline F. Grierson Kristina Lemson Tom Lyons Craig Macfarlane Michael H. O’Connor John K. Scott Rachel J. Standish William D. Stock Eddie J. B. van Etten Grant W. Wardell-Johnson Alexander Watson 《Climatic change》2012,110(1-2):227-248
The importance of ecological management for reducing the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change is increasingly recognized, yet frameworks to facilitate a structured approach to climate adaptation management are lacking. We developed a conceptual framework that can guide identification of climate change impacts and adaptive management options in a given region or biome. The framework focuses on potential points of early climate change impact, and organizes these along two main axes. First, it recognizes that climate change can act at a range of ecological scales. Secondly, it emphasizes that outcomes are dependent on two potentially interacting and countervailing forces: (1) changes to environmental parameters and ecological processes brought about by climate change, and (2) responses of component systems as determined by attributes of resistance and resilience. Through this structure, the framework draws together a broad range of ecological concepts, with a novel emphasis on attributes of resistance and resilience that can temper the response of species, ecosystems and landscapes to climate change. We applied the framework to the world’s largest remaining Mediterranean-climate woodland, the ‘Great Western Woodlands’ of south-western Australia. In this relatively intact region, maintaining inherent resistance and resilience by preventing anthropogenic degradation is of highest priority and lowest risk. Limited, higher risk options such as fire management, protection of refugia and translocation of adaptive genes may be justifiable under more extreme change, hence our capacity to predict the extent of change strongly impinges on such management decisions. These conclusions may contrast with similar analyses in degraded landscapes, where natural integrity is already compromised, and existing investment in restoration may facilitate experimentation with higher risk?options. 相似文献
19.
Policy makers are still struggling to find a rational and effective way to handle adaptation to climate change. This paper discusses a more strategic, economic approach to public adaptation and compares it with adaptation practice in Europe. An economic approach to adaptation involves setting priorities, both spatially (where to adapt) and inter-temporally (when to adapt). The paper reviews what we know about Europe’s geographic adaptation priorities. On inter-temporal priorities, it recommends fast-tracking two types of action: Win-win measures that yield an immediate return, such as water efficiency, and strategic decisions on infrastructure and spatial planning that have long-term consequences for Europe’s vulnerability profile. An economic approach to adaptation involves careful project design to ensure adaptation measures are cost-effective and flexible in the light of climate uncertainty (how to adapt). The final element of an economic approach to adaptation is the division of labour between the state and private actors (who should adapt). The paper argues that the traditional functions of the state—the provision of public goods, creation of an enabling environment and protection of the vulnerable—also apply to adaptation. 相似文献
20.
Giuseppe Feola 《Climatic change》2013,119(3-4):565-574
Climate change is putting Colombian agriculture under significant stress and, if no adaptation is made, the latter will be severely impacted during the next decades. Ramirez-Villegas et al. (2012) set out a government-led, top-down, techno-scientific proposal for a way forward by which Colombian agriculture could adapt to climate change. However, this proposal largely overlooks the root causes of vulnerability of Colombian agriculture, and of smallholders in particular. I discuss some of the hidden assumptions underpinning this proposal and of the arguments employed by Ramirez-Villegas et al., based on existing literature on Colombian agriculture and the wider scientific debate on adaptation to climate change. While technical measures may play an important role in the adaptation of Colombian agriculture to climate change, I question whether these actions alone truly represent priority issues, especially for smallholders. I suggest that by i) looking at vulnerability before adaptation, ii) contextualising climate change as one of multiple exposures, and iii) truly putting smallholders at the centre of adaptation, i.e. to learn about and with them, different and perhaps more urgent priorities for action can be identified. Ultimately, I argue that what is at stake is not only a list of adaptation measures but, more importantly, the scientific approach from which priorities for action are identified. In this respect, I propose that transformative rather than technical fix adaptation represents a better approach for Colombian agriculture and smallholders in particular, in the face of climate change. 相似文献