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1.
《Global Environmental Change》2001,11(2):133-145
Recent perspectives on public understandings of global environmental risk have emphasised the interpretation, judgement and ‘sense-making’ that takes place, modes of perception that are inextricably tied to aspects of ‘local’ context. In this paper we offer a current picture of the ways in which residents think about the problem of urban air pollution. To do this we utilise elements of a wider research project involving a survey and in-depth interviews with members of the public. In this way — and drawing upon the prior air pollution perception literature and recent work in the field of environmental and risk perception — we present a more analytical interpretation than has hitherto been approached. Conclusions are drawn which stress the localisation of people's understandings within the immediate physical, social and cultural landscape and also through a trust in personal experiences over any kind of information-based evidence. From this position, and with the development of implications for policy, we demonstrate the need to study public perceptions if the objectives of air quality, and more generally, environmental management are to be achieved. 相似文献
2.
《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(3):100021
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), a dominant mode of the equatorial stratospheric (~100–1 hPa) variability, is known to impact tropospheric circulation in the middle and high latitudes. Yet, its realistic simulation in general circulation models remains a challenge. The authors examine the simulated QBO in the 69-layer version of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP-AGCML69) and analyze its momentum budget. The authors find that the QBO is primarily caused by parameterized gravity-wave forcing due to tropospheric convection, but the downward propagation of the momentum source is significantly offset by the upward advection of zonal wind by the equatorial upwelling in the stratosphere. Resolved-scale waves act as a positive contribution to the total zonal wind tendency of the QBO over the equator with comparable magnitude to the gravity-wave forcing in the upper stratosphere. Results provide insights into the mechanism of the QBO and possible causes of differences in models.摘要平流层准两年振荡 (QBO) 是赤道平流层 (~100–1 hPa) 变率的主要模态, 可对中高纬地区的环流产生重要影响, 但目前利用通用大气环流模式 (GCM) 对其进行准确模拟仍然是一个挑战.本文利用IAP大气环流模式 (IAP-AGCM) 的中高层大气模式版本 (IAP-AGCML69) 对QBO进行模拟, 并对其动量收支情况进行分析.研究发现, QBO主要是由对流活动引起的重力波强迫 (参数化) 引起的, 但该动量强迫被平流层赤道上升流所引起的平流过程显著削弱.模式可分辨尺度的波动强迫对赤道上空的QBO的总纬向风倾向有正贡献, 在上平流层, 其量值大小与参数化的重力波强迫相当.以上结果提供了对QBO形成机制以及模式模拟差异可能原因的认识. 相似文献
3.
Alexandros P. Dimitrakopoulos M. Vlahou Ch. G. Anagnostopoulou I. D. Mitsopoulos 《Climatic change》2011,109(3-4):331-347
An increasing trend and a statistically significant positive correlation between wildfire occurrence, area burned and drought (as expressed by the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI) have been observed all over Greece, during the period 1961?C1997. In the more humid and colder regions (Northern and Western Greece) the number of fires and area burned were positively correlated to both summer (SPI6_October) and annual drought (SPI12_September), whereas in the relatively more dry and hot regions (Southern and Central Greece) the number of fires and area burned were correlated only to summer drought. In 1978, Greece entered a period of prolonged drought, possibly as a result of the global climatic change. Data analysis of the period 1978?C1997 revealed a statistically significant increase in the mean annual number of fires, the area burned and the summer and annual drought episodes in the relatively more humid and colder regions (Northern and Western) of Greece (which in the past were characterized by less fires and area burned) compared to the more dry and hot regions (Southern and Eastern Greece), which always presented high fire activity. Additionally, analyzing the two sub-periods (1961?C1977, 1978?C1997) separately, drought was significantly correlated only to fire occurrence during the years 1961?C1977, whereas during 1978?C1997 drought was significantly correlated mainly to area burned. It became obvious that drought episodes, although they are not solely responsible for fire occurrence and area burned, they exert an increasingly significant impact on wildfire activity in Greece. 相似文献
4.
Yong L.McHall 《大气科学进展》1993,(4)
It has been argued in Part I that traditional expression of multidimensional group velocity used in meteorology is only applicable for isotropic waves. While for anisotropic waves, it cannot manifest propagation of waves group along the trajectory of a reference wave point, and varies with rotation of coordinates. The general mathematical expression of group velocity which may be used also for anisotropic waves has been derived in Part I. It will be proved that the mean wave energy, momentum and wave action density are all conserved as a wave group propagates at the general group velocity. Since general group velocity represents the movement of a reference point in either isotropic or anisotropic wave trains, it may be used to define wave rays. The variations of wave parameters along the rays in a slowly varying environment are represented by ray-tracing equations. Using the general group velocity, we may derive the anisotropic ray-tracing equations, which give the traditional ray-tracing equations for 相似文献
5.
Yong L.McHall 《大气科学进展》1993,(4)
The group velocity used in meteorology in the last 30 years was derived in terms of conservation of wave energy or crests in wave propagation. The conservation principle is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for deriving the mathematical form of group velocity, because it cannot specify a unique direction in which wave energy or crests propagate. The derived mathematical expression is available only for isotropic waves. But for anisotropic waves, the traditional group velocity may have no a definite direction, because it varies with rotation of coordinates. For these reasons, it cannot be considered as a general expression of group velocity. A ray defined by using this group velocity may not be the trajectory of a reference point in an anisotropic wave train. The more general and precise expression of group velocity which is applicable for both isotropic and anisotropic waves and is independent of coordinates will be derived following the displacement of not only a wave envelope phase but also a 相似文献
6.
Abstract It is shown that inertial oscillations of significant magnitude can be generated by geostrophic adjustment in a shallow sea. Evidence of them in current‐meter data from the Gulf of St Lawrence is presented. The geostrophically unbalanced state required for the adjustment process is identified in the data by the occurrence of high accelerations of the currents. The difference between the inertial oscillations generated by different mechanisms, the intermittence and the frequency shift of the inertial waves are discussed. 相似文献
7.
We analyze climate change in a cost–benefit framework, using the emission and concentration profiles of Wigley et al. (Nature
379(6562):240–243, 1996). They present five scenarios that cover the period 1990–2300 and are designed to reach stabilized concentration levels of
350, 450, 550, 650 and 750 ppmv, respectively. We assume that the damage cost in each year t is proportional to the corresponding gross world product and the square of the atmospheric temperature increase (ΔT(t)). The latter is estimated with a simple two-box model (representing the atmosphere and deep ocean). Coupling the damage
cost with the abatement cost, we interpolate between the five scenarios to find the one that is optimal in the sense of minimizing
the sum of discounted annual (abatement plus damage) costs over a time horizon of N years. Our method is simpler than ‘traditional’ models with the same purpose, and thus allows for a more transparent sensitivity
study with respect to the uncertainties of all parameters involved. We report our central result in terms of the stabilized
emission level E
o
and concentration level p
o
(i.e. their values at t = 300 years) of the optimal scenario. For the central parameter values (that is, N = 150 years, a discount rate r
dis
= 2%/year and a growth rate r
gro
= 1%/year of gross world product) we find E
o
= 8.0 GtCO2/year and p
o
= 496 ppmv. Varying the parameters over a wide range, we find that the optimal emission level remains within a remarkably
narrow range, from about 6.0 to 12 GtCO2/year for all plausible parameter values. To assess the significance of the uncertainties we focus on the social cost penalty,
defined as the extra cost incurred by society relative to the optimum if one makes the wrong choice of the emission level
as a result of erroneous damage and abatement cost estimates. In relative terms the cost penalty turns out to be remarkably
insensitive to errors. For example, if the true damage costs are three times larger or smaller than the estimate, the total
social cost of global climate change increases by less than 20% above its minimum at the true optimal emission level. Because
of the enormous magnitude of the total costs involved with climate change (mitigation), however, even a small relative error
implies large additional expenses in absolute terms. To evaluate the benefit of reducing cost uncertainties, we plot the cost
penalty as function of the uncertainty in relative damage and abatement costs, expressed as geometric standard deviation and
standard deviation respectively. If continued externality analysis reduces the geometric standard deviation of relative damage
cost estimates from 5 to 4, the benefit is 0.05% of the present value G
tot
of total gross word product over 150 years (about $3.9 × 1015), and if further research reduces the standard deviation of relative abatement costs from 1 to 0.5, the benefit is 0.03%
of G
tot
. 相似文献
8.
Increased evidence has shown the important role of Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) in modulating the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Persistent anomalies of summer Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) act to link the Atlantic SST anomalies (SSTAs) to ENSO. The Atlantic SSTAs are strongly correlated with the persistent anomalies of summer MJO, and possibly affect MJO in two major ways. One is that an anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation appears over the tropical Atlantic Ocean associated with positive (negative) SSTA in spring, and it intensifies (weakens) the Walker circulation. Equatorial updraft anomaly then appears over the Indian Ocean and the eastern Pacific Ocean, intensifying MJO activity over these regions. The other involves a high pressure (low pressure) anomaly associated with the North Atlantic SSTA tripole pattern that is transmitted to the mid- and low-latitudes by a circumglobal teleconnection pattern, leading to strong (weak) convective activity of MJO over the Indian Ocean. The above results offer new viewpoints about the process from springtime Atlantic SSTA signals to summertime atmospheric oscillation, and then to the MJO of tropical atmosphere affecting wintertime Pacific ENSO events, which connects different oceans. 相似文献
9.
K. Slezakova J. C. M. Pires M. C. Pereira F. G. Martins M. C. Alvim-Ferraz 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2008,60(3):221-236
In urban areas traffic is the major contributor to atmospheric particulate matter and exposure to these particles currently
represents a serious risk to human health. The attention has been recently focused more on the particles of smaller sizes
(PM2.5) which penetrate deeper in respiratory system causing severe health effects. Therefore, more information on PM2.5 should be provided, namely concerning morphological and chemical characterization. Aiming further evaluation of the impact
of traffic emissions on public health, this work evaluated the influence of traffic on the chemical and morphological characteristics
of PM10 and PM2.5, collected at one site influenced by traffic emissions and at one reference site. Chemical and morphological characteristics
of 1,000 individual particles were determined by scanning electron microscopy combined with energy dispersive spectrometer
(SEM–EDS). Cluster analysis (CA) was used to identify different types of particles that occurred in PM, aiming the identification
of the respective emission sources. Traffic PM2.5 were dominated by particles composed of Fe oxides and alloys (67%) which were related to traffic emissions (this percentage
was 3.7 times higher than at the background site); in PM2.5–10 the abundance of Fe oxides and alloys were 20% and 0% for the traffic and background sites, respectively. Background PM2.5 were mainly constituted by aluminum silicates (63%) related to natural sources (this percentage was 2.5 times higher than
at the traffic site); the abundances of aluminum silicates in PM2.5–10 were 74% and 73% for traffic and background sites, respectively. It was concluded that traffic emissions were mainly present
in PM2.5 (the percentage of particles associated to these emissions was 3.4 times higher than in PM2.5–10), while coarse particles were dominated by material of natural origin (the percentage of particles associated was 1.2 and
3.0 times higher than in PM2.5 for traffic and background sites, respectively). Previous results obtained by proton induced X-ray emission (PIXE) were consistent
with SEM–EDS analysis that showed to be very useful to complement elemental analysis of different PM2.5 and PM2.5–10. 相似文献
10.
Cycles and shifts: 1,300 years of multi-decadal temperature variability in the Gulf of Alaska 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The Gulf of Alaska (GOA) is highly sensitive to shifts in North Pacific climate variability. Here we present an extended tree-ring
record of January–September GOA coastal surface air temperatures using tree-ring width data from coniferous trees growing
in the mountain ranges along the GOA. The reconstruction (1514–1999), based on living trees, explains 44% of the temperature
variance, although, as the number of chronologies decreases back in time, this value decreases to, and remains around ∼30%
before 1840. Verification of the calibrated models is, however, robust. Utilizing sub-fossil wood, we extend the GOA reconstruction
back to the early eighth century. The GOA reconstruction correlates significantly (95% CL) with both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Index (0.53) and North Pacific Index (−0.42) and therefore likely yields important information on past climate variability
in the North Pacific region. Intervention analysis on the GOA reconstruction identifies the known twentieth century climate
shifts around the 1940s and 1970s, although the mid-1920s shift is only weakly expressed. In the context of the full 1,300 years
record, the well studied 1976 shift is not unique. Multi-taper method spectral analysis shows that the spectral properties
of the living and sub-fossil data are similar, with both records showing significant (95% CL) spectral peaks at ∼9–11, 13–14
and 18–19 years. Singular spectrum analysis identifies (in order of importance) significant oscillatory modes at 18.7, 50.4,
38.0, 91.8, 24.4, 15.3 and 14.1 years. The amplitude of these modes varies through time. It has been suggested (Minobe in
Geophys Res Lett 26:855–858, 1999) that the regime shifts during the twentieth century can be explained by the interaction between pentadecadal (50.4 years)
and bidecadal (18.7 years) oscillatory modes. Removal of these two modes of variance from our GOA time series does indeed
remove the twentieth century shifts, but many are still identified prior to the twentieth century. Our analysis suggests that
climate variability of the GOA is very complex, and that much more work is required to understand the underlying oscillatory
behavior that is observed in instrumental and proxy records from the North Pacific region.
相似文献
| Rob WilsonEmail: |
11.
Abstract This study reports on tower measurements from the intertidal zone taken during the ice‐free period between August 1 and September 20, 1985. Sea and air temperatures showed ranges of 8 and 14°C, respectively, and both were colder during onshore than during offshore winds. Onshore winds were associated with a nearly saturated atmosphere whereas offshore ones were quite dry. Surface albedo was twice as great for low tide as for high tide. The ratio net/solar radiation was 13% less at low tide owing to both the larger albedo and the stronger long‐wave radiation loss. Heat fluxes into the bottom sediments were small with net gains in August and net losses in September. During the day, heat storage in the water was large and positive. This occurred even with the tide out, when the ponded water continued to warm. At night the water gave up heat, both for low and high tide, and especially late in the season. The latent heat flux was always positive and was largest by day during low tide and by night during high tide. The sensible heat flux was positive for onshore winds and often negative for offshore winds. Under all wind directions heat storage constituted 60% of net radiation, the latent heat flux 35% and the remainder was proportioned equally between the sensible heat flux and the flux into the bottom sediments. 相似文献
12.
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Based on the precipitation records of 2474 meteorological stations, this study investigated precipitation characteristics and trends in China from 1961 to... 相似文献
13.
Eric C. J. Oliver 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(1-2):401-416
Intraseasonal variability of the tropical Indo-Pacific ocean is strongly related to the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Shallow seas in this region, such as the Gulf of Thailand, act as amplifiers of the direct ocean response to surface wind forcing by efficient setup of sea level. Intraseasonal ocean variability in the Gulf of Thailand region is examined using statistical analysis of local tide gauge observations and surface winds. The tide gauges detect variability on intraseasonal time scales that is related to the MJO through its effect on local wind. The relationship between the MJO and the surface wind is strongly seasonal, being most vigorous during the monsoon, and direction-dependent. The observations are then supplemented with simulations of sea level and circulation from a fully nonlinear barotropic numerical ocean model (Princeton Ocean Model). The numerical model reproduces well the intraseasonal sea level variability in the Gulf of Thailand and its seasonal modulations. The model is then used to map the wind-driven response of sea level and circulation in the entire Gulf of Thailand. Finally, the predictability of the setup and setdown signal is discussed by relating it to the, potentially predictable, MJO index. 相似文献
14.
15.
Griffith M. Morgan Jr 《大气与海洋》2013,51(1):49-60
Abstract Recent studies on the patterns of surface hailfall based on measurements at several scales and by several techniques are described. This is used as a framework for indicating needs for further research. The work described was performed at the Illinois State Water Survey, and no attempt has been made to present a review of all significant research on surface hailfall characteristics. 相似文献
16.
17.
Analysis of the Microphysical Structure of Heavy Fog Ｕsing a Droplet Spectrometer: A Case Study 总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15
The microphysical properties of a long-lasting heavy fog event are examined based on the results from a comprehensive field campaign conducted during the winter of 2006 at Pancheng (32.2°N, 118.7°E), Jiangsu Province, China. It is demonstrated that the key microphysical properties (liquid water content, fog droplet concentration, mean radius and standard deviation) exhibited positive correlations with one another in general, and that the 5-min-average maximum value of fog liquid water content was sometimes ... 相似文献
18.
19.
Sabrina Kumschick Stefan Fronzek Martin H. Entling Wolfgang Nentwig 《Climatic change》2011,109(3-4):319-329
Numerous species are expanding their ranges towards the North Pole, a pattern that is usually explained with climate change. However, few studies have actually tested the potential role of climate in such range expansions. Here, we studied the wasp spider Argiope bruennichi, which has multiplied its range in Central and Northern Europe during the 20th century and is still spreading. Using current and historical climate data, we analysed whether this spread can be explained by climate warming, increasing cold tolerance or if it is unrelated to temperature. Spatial partial regression showed that the spread of A. bruennichi into formerly cooler areas is independent of spatial autocorrelation, indicating that it is driven by temperature. Some aspects of the spread, as e.g. the patchy distribution at the beginning of the century are likely to be relicts of climate fluctuations before our study period. From the middle of the 20th century until the 1980s, A. bruennichi was recorded from gradually cooler climates, while temperature was relatively constant. This indicates that A. bruennichi either increased its cold tolerance or that the spread continued with a time lag following an earlier warming event, due to dispersal limitation. In the last two decades, temperature rose sharply. The temperatures at which A. bruennichi was newly recorded increased as well, indicating that the spider is dispersal limited and that the spread will continue even in the absence of further climate warming. 相似文献
20.
Formation of the anomalous summer precipitation in east China in 2010 and 1998: A comparison of the impacts of two kinds of El Niño 
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下载免费PDF全文 In the summers of 1998 and 2010, severe floods occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Although an El Niño event took place preceding each of the summer floods, significant differences between the two summer floods and the two El Niño events were identified. The 1997/98 El Niño is a conventional one with strongest warming in the central-eastern Pacific, whereas the 2009/10 event is an El Niño Modoki with strongest warming in the central Pacific. In this study, summer rainfall anomalies (SRA) in the two years were first compared based on the rainfall data at 160 stations in mainland China, and a significant difference in SRA was found. To understand the underlying mechanism for the difference, the atmospheric circulation systems, particularly the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC), the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the low-level air flows, were compared in the two years by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results display that the WNPAC was stronger in 2010 than in 1998, along with a northwestward shift, causing weakened southwesterly from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea but intensified southerly in eastern China. This resulted in less water vapor transport from the tropical Indian Ocean and the South China Sea but more from the subtropical western Pacific to East Asia. Subsequently, the rainband in 2010 shifted northward. The difference in the WNPAC was caused by the anomalous ascending motion associated with the warming location in the two El Niño events. Furthermore, the role of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) in modulating these differences was investigated by conducting sensitivity experiments using GFDL AM2.1 (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model). Two experiments were performed, one with the observed monthly SST and the other with June SST persisting through the whole summer. The results suggest that the model well reproduced the primary differences in the atmospheric circulation systems in the two years. It is found that the difference in El Niño events has shaped the rainfall patterns in the two years of 1998 and 2010. At last, the case of 2010 was compared with the composite of historical El Niño Modoki events, and the results indicate that the impact of El Niño Modoki varies from case to case and is more complicated than previously revealed. 相似文献