共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 93 毫秒
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Nelder-Mead Simplex (NMS)算法是一种查找多元函数局地最小值的无微分算法,在现代科学计算中得到广泛应用,该文提出了一种对NMS算法的改进方法.改进后,大大简化了其计算过程,提高了该算法的收敛速度.利用改进后的算法对陆面过程参数进行了拟合计算,结果表明:改进的NMS算法对非线性公式具有非常高的拟合精... 相似文献
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The ‘Anthropocene’ concept provides a conceptual framework that encapsulates the current global situation in which society has an ever-greater dominating influence on Earth System functioning. Simulation models used to understand earth system dynamics provide early warning, scenario analysis and evaluation of environmental management and policies. This paper aims to assess the extent to which current models represent the Anthropocene and suggest ways forward. Current models do not fully reflect the typical characteristics of the Anthropocene, such as societal influences and interactions with natural processes, feedbacks and system dynamics, tele-connections, tipping points, thresholds and regime shifts. Based on an analysis of current model representations of Anthropocene dynamics, we identify ways to enhance the role of modeling tools to better help us understand Anthropocene dynamics and address sustainability issues arising from them. To explore sustainable futures (‘safe and operating spaces’), social processes and anthropogenic drivers of biophysical processes must be incorporated, to allow for a spectrum of potential impacts and responses at different societal levels. In this context, model development can play a major role in reconciling the different epistemologies of the disciplines that need to collaborate to capture changes in the functioning of socio-ecological systems. Feedbacks between system functioning and underlying endogenous drivers should be represented, rather than assuming the drivers to be exogenous to the modelled system or stationary in time and space. While global scale assessments are important, the global scale dynamics need to be connected to local realities and vice versa. The diversity of stakeholders and potential questions requires a diversification of models, avoiding the convergence towards single models that are able to answer a wide range of questions, but without sufficient specificity. The novel concept of the Anthropocene can help to develop innovative model representations and model architectures that are better suited to assist in designing sustainable solutions targeted at the users of the models and model results. 相似文献
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Atmospheric moisture transport from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin plays an important role in regulating North Atlantic salinity and thus the strength of the thermohaline circulation. Potential changes in the strength of this moisture transport are investigated for two different climate-change scenarios: North Atlantic cooling representative of Heinrich events, and increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. The effect of North Atlantic cooling is studied using a coupled regional model with comparatively high resolution that successfully simulates Central American gap winds and other important aspects of the region. Cooler North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) in this model leads to a regional decrease of atmospheric moisture but also to an increase in wind speed across Central America via an anomalous pressure gradient. The latter effect dominates, resulting in a 0.13 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s?1) increase in overall moisture transport to the Pacific basin. In fresh water forcing simulations with four different general circulation models, the wind speed effect is also present but not strong enough to completely offset the effect of moisture decrease except in one model. The influence of GHG forcing is studied using simulations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change archive. In these simulations atmospheric moisture increases globally, resulting in an increase of moisture transport by 0.25 Sv from the Atlantic to Pacific. Thus, in both scenarios, moisture transport changes act to stabilize the thermohaline circulation. The notion that the Andes effectively block moisture transport from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin is not supported by the simulations and atmospheric reanalyses examined here. This indicates that such a blocking effect does not exist or else that higher resolution is needed to adequately represent the steep orography of the Andes. 相似文献
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Scaling up national climate adaptation under the Paris Agreement is critical not only to reduce risk, but also to contribute to a nation’s development. Traditional adaptation assessments are aimed at evaluating adaptation to cost-effectively reduce risk and do not capture the far-reaching benefits of adaptation in the context of development and the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). By grounding adaptation planning in an SDG vision, we propose and demonstrate a methodological process that for the first time allows national decision-makers to: i) quantify the adaptation that is needed to safeguard SDG target progress, and ii) evaluate strategies of stakeholder-driven adaptation options to meet those needs whilst delivering additional SDG target co-benefits. This methodological process is spatially applied to a national adaptation assessment in Ghana. In the face of the country’s risk from floods and landslides, this analysis identifies which energy and transport assets to prioritise in order to make the greatest contribution to safeguarding development progress. Three strategies (‘built’, ‘nature-based’, ‘combined SDG strategy’) were formulated through a multi-stakeholder partnership involving government, the private sector, and academia as a means to protect Ghana’s prioritised assets against climate risk. Evaluating these adaptation strategies in terms of their ability to deliver on SDG targets, we find that the combined SDG strategy maximises SDG co-benefits across 116 targets. The proposed methodological process for integrating SDG targets in adaptation assessments is transferable to other climate-vulnerable nations, and can provide decision-makers with spatially-explicit evidence for implementing sustainable adaptation in alignment with the global agendas. 相似文献
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通过基层台站在草温/雪面温度观测中反映出的问题,对《地面观测规范》中的有关规定做合理的解释和细化,以期解决该观测项目在实际工作中的问题. 相似文献
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田径运动训练和比赛成绩的好坏,除了与运动员临场竞技状态等因素有关外,还与比赛训练时的气象要素风、气温、湿度等有着密切关系。本文结合新疆的气候特征着重阐述了不同季节气候的变化对田径运动训练的影响,同时也分析了“五差”对新疆田径运动员竞技能力的影响,并提出了建议。 相似文献
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黑河是黑龙汀流域的一个边境贸易城市,没有重工业及化工业,所以城市温室气体排故对城市的气候环境影响也很小.我们对黑河城市开发过程和黑河气象站长期观测到的数据进行综合分析和整理,得出黑河城市开发对当地的气温、降水、冻土的影响.通过分析计算的数值可以看到黑河城市的大规模的开发引起区域内的年平均气温升高、年平均降水量的减少、冻土深度的降低.从黑河这个城市的发展对自然环境的影响,可以得出一个对现实有影响的结论,城市的开发和建设对气候的影响要大于城市温室气体排放对气候的影响.就是在城市建设和开发时要考虑自然环境的因素,尽量保护城市生态环境,做到城市开发和建设与生态环境和谐发展. 相似文献
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Accurate measurements in highly turbulent flows, as they occur in nature, require reliable velocity measuring techniques that permit instantaneous velocity components to be locally recorded. Hot-element techniques and optical methods are available for local measurements of instantaneous velocity and the present paper summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of different techniques when applied to flow fields in the environment of vegetation. The paper points out the advantages of laser-Doppler anemometry for velocity measurements in highly turbulent flows under laboratory conditions and stresses the reliability of the technique for measurements in polluted air and water flows. The basic principles of the method are explained and developments are described that have yielded optical anemometer systems for measurements of the magnitudes and signs of the instantaneous velocity components. Both quantities have to be known if accurate measurements of the mean flow properties and turbulence characteristics in flow fields with unknown flow directions are required. Electronic data-processing systems for laser-Doppler anemometer measurements are surveyed, embracing frequency analysers, automatic filter banks, frequency trackers, photon correlators and frequency counters. Photon-correlation and counting techniques are introduced as the methods most likely to be employed for the laser-Doppler anemometer. Laser-Doppler anemometer investigations are described in boundary-layer flows along bean leaves and a metal model of plant leaves. These measurements formed the basis of heat and mass transfer predictions near leaves for a specific leaf position relative to the free stream and with different turbulence properties imposed onto the oncoming flow. These data are presented and discussed in some detail. Measurements are also presented that were carried out to investigate the velocity fields in different flow regimes around a square obstacle in a water flow. These flow properties were needed to understand the different growth rates of sea-weed observed in differing flow regimes. 相似文献
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从雷电的基本特性及雷电对石油气、库的危害分析入手,介绍了防雷措施的主要技术要求,采取合理、安全可靠的措施来防止油库雷击事故的发生。 相似文献
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雷电对石油气站的危害及预防措施 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
从雷电的基本特性及雷电对石油气、库的危害分析入手,介绍了防雷措施的主要技术要求,采取合理、安全可靠的措施来防止油库雷击事故的发生。 相似文献
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山东人工影响天气工作发展回顾与思考 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
回顾了50年来山东省人工影响天气工作在作业装备与催化技术、作业条件判别、云微物理机制研究、业务技术系统等方面的主要进展,总结了山东省人影事业发展的基本经验,对存在的主要问题进行了分析;根据国家人影业务体系发展方向和山东实际,提出山东省人工影响天气稳步发展需要重点加强的重点工程、联防作业机制、外场科学实验等几个方面的工作。 相似文献
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<正>1引言看云可以认识天气变化,掌握云的演变规律,更加有利于对天气变化的预报。通过云的观测可判断当时大气层结状态、天气系统等,这些都与未来天气变化有着密切关系。一定的大气层结、天气系统有一定的云系分布和演变规律。通过看云在一定程度上可以判定本站处于天气系统的位置,系统的强弱, 相似文献
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Windows delineating tolerable or "acceptable" conditions associated with climate change can be defined in terms of a variety of parameters; a preliminary window offered by the Scientific Advisory Council on Global Change of the Federal Government of Germany sets limits on temperature change and the rate of temperature change. Investment in adaptation can alter the size and shape of these windows, and different emissions trajectories are associated with different limiting points on their boundaries. As a result, the value of adaptation depends upon both the underlying structure of the tolerable window and the basecase emissions trajectory. Given uncertainty about both, the best near-term policy should be cast in a sequential decision-making framework. Seen in this light, improved adaptive potential can either reduce the cost of sustaining tolerable climate change or increase the opportunity cost of holding to more restrictive boundaries. 相似文献