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1.
The regularities of changes in the parameters of the hydrological regime of the Lower Volga are considered using data of routine observations at gaging stations and data of field studies carried out by the specialists of Zubov State Oceanographic Institute in 2006–2017. The main modern trends are revealed for runoff and water level, water temperature, and ice phenomena as well as for the duration of flooding of the Volga-Akhtuba floodplain during the spring flood. The parameters are compared for natural and regulated Volga River runoff conditions. It is shown that considerable variation in the duration of flooding of floodplains, in water temperature, and heat flow during the spring flood under modern conditions is caused both by runoff operation and by increase in the anthropogenic load on the area of the Volga-Akhtuba floodplain in the recent decades. 相似文献
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This interdisciplinary paper presents an empirical analysis of techno-institutional lock-in in a regional fishery, in the Logone floodplain in the Far North Region of Cameroon. In the Logone floodplain, one fishing technique is spreading exponentially even though it is changing the social, hydrological and ecological dynamics of the system in ways that are largely considered problematic by local communities. We use a complex systems framework to analyze large hydrological and socio-economic datasets. Results show how social-ecological feedbacks foster the spread of the technique and contribute to the process of lock-in. The lock-in leads to a resistance to change despite awareness of the technique’s impact, a situation that may also be described as a social-ecological trap. We identify and explain four kinds of positive feedback loops relating to socio-economic, behavioral, demographic and hydrological processes, respectively. We also identify possible solutions that consider the complexity of the feedback loops across multiple dimensions of the floodplain system. 相似文献
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Javier Tomasella Patrícia F. Pinho Laura S. Borma José A. Marengo Carlos A. Nobre Olga R. F. O. Bittencourt Maria C. R. Prado Daniel A. Rodriguez Luz A. Cuartas 《Climatic change》2013,116(3-4):723-746
It is well known that most of the severe droughts in Amazonia, such as that of 1997, are El Niño-related. However, in 2005, the Amazon was affected by a severe drought that was not El Niño-related, as most of the rainfall anomalies that have happened in southwestern Amazonia are driven by sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic. Earlier studies have analyzed both droughts in terms of their meteorological causes and impacts in terra firme (non-flooded) forests. This study compares the hydrological effects of both droughts on the Amazonian floodplain and discusses their potential ecological and human impacts based on an extensive literature review. The results revealed that the effects of the 2005 drought were exacerbated because rainfall was lower and evaporation rates were higher at the peak of the dry season compared to the 1997 drought. This induced a more acute depletion of water levels in floodplain lakes and was most likely associated with higher fish mortality rates. Based on the fact that the stem growth of many floodplain species is related to the length of the non-flooded period, it is hypothesized that the 1997 drought had more positive effects on floodplain forest growth than the 2005 drought. The fishing community of Silves in central Amazonia considered both droughts to have been equally severe. However, the 2005 drought was widely broadcasted by the press; therefore, the governmental mitigation efforts were more comprehensive. It is suggested that the availability of new communication technology and greater public awareness regarding environmental issues, combined with the new legal framework for assessing the severity of calamities in Brazil, are among the primary factors that explain the difference in societal response between the two droughts. 相似文献
4.
我国内陆河流域水文循环与其生态功能浅析 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
近50 a来,我国的西北内陆河流域,与世界很多干旱、半干旱的缺水地区一样,水文循环及其生态功能正发生着一系列衰退及相伴的生态环境恶化现象。本文从气候、人类活动与水文循环间相互作用的观点,用实测的气候水文数据剖析了这一现象。提出水文循环通过其生态功能,与生态系统相伴相生,互相依存。水资源的过渡开发利用超出了水文循环的再生能力,延迟了水资源再生周期。由于内陆河的平原与盆地的干燥度指数十分大,暖干气候放大了人类活动对水文循环的不利影响,加剧了生态环境的退化。对于内陆河流域,人类生存与经济发展地区远离山区水源地,流域统一的水资源综合管理对于维持健康的水文循环和生态系统尤为重要。 相似文献
5.
The Xin'anjiang Model is used as the basic model to develop a monthly grid-based macroscalehydrological model for the assessment of the effects of climate change on water resources.Themonthly discharge from 1953 through 1985 in the Huaihe River Basin is simulated.The sensitivityanalysis on runoff is made under assumed climatic scenarios.There is a good agreement betweenthe observed and simulated runoff.Due to the increase of time interval and decrease ofprecipitation intensity on monthly time scale,there is no monthly runoff in some model girds as themomhly hydrological model is applied to the Huaihe River Basin.Two methods of downscalingmonthly precipitation to daily resolution are validated by running the Xin'anjiang model withmonthly data at a daily time step.and the model outputs are more realistic than the monthlyhydrological model.The metbods of downscaling of monthly precipitation to daily resolution mayprovide an idea in solving the problem of the shortage of daily data.In the research of the climatechange on water resources,the daily hydrological model can be used instead of the monthly one. 相似文献
6.
A. V. Rozhdestvenskii V. A. Buzin T. L. Shalashina 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2010,35(1):54-61
The genesis of the formation of maximum water levels of the Lena River near Yakutsk is considered. Recovery techniques of
series of hydrological characteristics is briefly stated. Observational data on maximum water levels are reduced to the long-term
period, an estimation of their homogeneity and stationarity is carried out. The recomputation of maximum water levels of 1%
probability taking account of extreme historical levels is executed. As a result, the mark of calculated 1% maximum water
level (97.34 m, Baltic System) is obtained, which is 0.98 m higher than the one given in hydrological handbooks [1, 6]. 相似文献
7.
A. N. Bugaets B. I. Gartsman S. A. Krasnopeev N. D. Bugaets 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2013,38(5):359-366
Presented is an experience of assimilating and using the CUAHSI HIS ODM open-format free hydrological database developed by the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrological Science Inc. and intended for the processing of operational data from automatic hydrological gages installed in the Ussuri River basin. The system is proposed as a core of the information system of Primorye Administration for Hydrometeorological and Environmental Monitoring oriented to serve a new modernized network of hydrological observations. The network is to provide the timely technological and information support for the water regime monitoring and prediction. During the installation and testing of components of the software, the main functions of database formation and loading, visualization, and critical control of the data are realized. 相似文献
8.
A. N. Bugaets B. I. Gartsman A. A. Tereshkina L. V. Gonchukov N. D. Bugaets N. Yu. Sidorenko N. F. Pshenichnikova S. M. Krasnopeyev 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2018,43(5):323-331
The research describes the experience of using digital models (of terrain, soil, and vegetation) for the underlying surface of the catchment for developing the spatial structure of the open-source SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model. The hydrological regime for the Komarovka River basin (616 km2) is simulated with a daily resolution using the data of Primorskaya water balance station and the modern observation network of Primorye Administration for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring. It is found that the calculated and measured runoff hydrographs are generally in good agreement, and the model is suitable for describing the hydrological regime of mid-latitude rivers where rainfall floods prevail. The model well reproduces average water years, underestimates the peaks caused by intense rainfall of the typhoon origin and overestimates baseflow. 相似文献
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以太子河流域为研究区域,基于流域内的气象水文数据、数字高程模型及土地利用等资料,采用HBV水文模型对流域的水文过程进行模拟,通过对模型参数的率定与验证,评估了HBV模型在该流域径流模拟的适用性,确定了适合太子河流域的最优化参数,结合水位-流量关系曲线,推算太子河流域不同等级洪水致洪临界雨量。结果表明: HBV模型对太子河流域的径流模拟效果较好,率定期与验证期Nash效率系数与确定性系数均超过0.60,模型中积雪和融雪模块(CFR)、土壤含水量计算模块(BETA)与响应模块(KUZ2、UZ1、PERC)中的这些参数最为敏感,模型基本模拟出了洪水对降水的响应过程。通过建立的HBV水文模型,结合小林子水文站的水位-流量关系曲线,以警戒水位、保证水位作为不同等级洪水的判别条件,推算得到了不同起始水位下太子河流域动态临界雨量指标,临界雨量随起始水位的升高而有所减小。 相似文献
11.
气候系统中的水循环处于不断运转演化和更新中。近年来在全球变暖和人类活动的双重影响下,水文循环发生了显著变化,引起了社会和学界的广泛关注。水文循环是气候系统的核心,是连接气候子系统的纽带,也是水文气象学研究的核心问题。近年来国内外学者采用各种观测手段及海-陆-气耦合模型检测和模拟水文循环变化,取得了丰硕成果。对其变化的物理机制和驱动因素有了深入的理解,提高了对其未来可能变化的预测预估水平。文中对最近20余年与水文气象学相关的水文循环发生的变化,引起全球、区域及流域水文循环通量变化的原因,以及未来变化的预测等问题所取得的进展做了较全面的阐述。最后对水文气象学领域水文循环变化研究应关注的问题进行了探讨。 相似文献
12.
水文模型参数选取对模拟径流的年际年内分布影响评估 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
使用水文模型进行气候变化对水文水资源的影响评估时,通常假定水文模型参数在历史和未来时期是固定不变的,并未区分水文模型参数受环境变化的影响差异。针对该问题,采用集对分析法以年降水量和年径流量为依据进行丰、平、枯水年的划分,利用SWAT分布式水文模型分别率定不同水平年的模型参数,探究月尺度模型参数的非稳定性对年际年内径流的影响。研究结果表明,分别以年降水量和年径流量划分丰、平、枯水年时,1961—2010年这50年中有70%的年份为同枯或同丰。如果仅选择某一水平年（丰、平、枯）背景下的资料进行建模,将导致模拟精度较丰、平、枯整体考虑时降低,且是以偏大为主。用同样的水文资料与代表不同环境条件下模型参数推求径流过程时,从年际变化角度看,使用某一水平年（丰、平、枯）背景下的参数,总体上模拟径流偏湿润,使得丰水年比重增加、枯水年比重降低;从年内分布看,受不同水平年参数影响,径流的集中度减小,年内分配更加均匀,径流集中期延迟。本研究可为提高未来变化环境下水文模拟可靠性提供参考,对于应对变化环境下的水资源适应性管理具有重要意义。 相似文献
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E. Sh. Elizbarashvili R. Sh. Meskhiya M. E. Elizbarashvili 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2007,32(1):71-74
The dynamics of the occurrence frequency of extreme anomalies of monthly mean air temperature and its effect on precipitation and river water discharge in the 20th century are studied using weather observations at 40 stations and data on the hydrological regime of 34 rivers in Georgia. 相似文献
15.
针对造成湖南省特大暴雨过程的"碧利斯"和"圣帕"两次台风,利用气象、水文加密观测资料及NCEP再分析资料,结合中尺度数值预报模式AREM的模拟结果,对它们独特的水汽场特征进行了对比分析.结果表明:这两次台风的共同特点是有两条主要水汽输送通道,即与西南季风相联系的偏南风水汽通道和与台风低压环流相联系的偏北风水汽通道;凝结降水的水汽主要来源于低层风场辐合和水汽平流,并通过局地垂直运动再将其输送到中高层;在湘东南强降水区上空始终存在强的水汽水平辐合和水汽垂直输送,比较而言,"圣帕"台风暴雨区上空水汽通量更强,但水汽通量辐合强度却小于"碧利斯"台风,水汽辐合层也不及后者深厚,但前者由于自身旋转性强,低压环流中心南部的切变较长时间维持,并自东向西转动,使得强降水持续时间更长,过程雨量更大,影响范围也更大."碧利斯"水汽主要源地较"圣帕"更加偏南,水汽辐合更强,与南海季风的相互作用更显著,降水时段集中,局部地区短时间内的降雨强度甚至超过了"圣帕". 相似文献
16.
基于陆面水文耦合模式CLHMS的淮河流域水文过程的模拟评估及其不确定性分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用最新的CFSR(Climate Forecast System Reanalysis)再分析及观测的降水和地表气温资料驱动陆面水文耦合模式CLHMS(Coupled Land surface and Hydrologic Model System),对淮河流域1980~2003年共24年的水文水循环过程进行了模拟,系统评估了CLHMS对淮河流域水文过程的模拟能力及其不确定性。分析结果表明,CLHMS模式对淮河流域水文过程具有良好的模拟能力,模式尤其对湿润年份流域的水量平衡以及河道流量的季节、年际变化具有很强的模拟能力,而对降水偏少的干旱年份,模式模拟的河道流量通常会高于观测实况,与实况间存在着一定的偏差,而这也是导致CLHMS对流域水文过程模拟能力存在显著年代际差异的主要原因。基于三组不同降水强迫的流域水文过程模拟结果比较表明,降水驱动资料准确与否是陆面水文模拟最主要的不确定性来源之一,正是由于CFSR再分析降水与观测降水之间存在较大的差异,从而导致CFSR降水驱动下模式模拟的淮河流域河道流量与观测存在较大的偏差,其模拟性能相对较差。进一步分析还表明,可以保持较强降水日变化的时间解集方法,也是保证合理模拟流域水文过程的重要因素。 相似文献
17.
基于可编程逻辑控制器的测量与控制技术,设计了水文信息自动测报系统,实现对不同区域的水位与雨量采集测量,并通过GPRS无线通信模块与Inter-net实现组网,把分布在不同现场的水情数据定时传送到水文信息中心进行汇总,实现水文信息的远程测量、监视、报表打印、趋势分析与报警等功能.最后给出的实际测试结果表明了该系统的可行性及精确性. 相似文献
18.
黄河水文变化复杂,现有水位监测方法费时费力且不能很好满足时间分辨率和空间分辨率两个方面的需求.地基GPS-IR技术的出现为水位监测提供了新的手段,但目前大多数地基GPS-IR技术采用的接收机为高精度大地测量型接收机,成本高、时效性差,不适合大范围推广.首先介绍了普适型GPS接收机的组成,并对GPS数据观测质量进行了分析;其次给出了地基GPS-IR技术用于水位监测的基本原理;最后利用黄河盐锅峡GPS实测数据进行GPS-IR水位提取,以兰州水文站水位监测数据为参考分析了普适型GPS接收机反演水位的精度,得到了最佳RMSE为0.21 m的精度.实验结果表明,普适型GPS接收机可用于长时间水位监测. 相似文献
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Summary Efforts to understand and simulate the global climate in numerical models have led to regional studies of the energy and
water balance. The Baltic Basin provides a continental scale test basin where meteorology, oceanography and hydrology all
can meet. Using a simple conceptual approach, a large-scale hydrological model of the water balance of the total Baltic Sea
Drainage Basin (HBV-Baltic) was used to simulate the basinwide water balance components for the present climate and to evaluate
the land surface components of atmospheric climate models. It has been used extensively in co-operative BALTEX (The Baltic
Sea Experiment) research and within SWECLIM (Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme) to support continued regional climate
model development. This helps to identify inconsistencies in both meteorological and hydrological models. One result is that
compensating errors are evident in the snow routines of the atmospheric models studied. The use of HBV-Baltic has greatly
improved the dialogue between hydrological and meteorological modellers within the Baltic Basin research community. It is
concluded that conceptual hydrological models, although far from being complete, play an important role in the realm of continental
scale hydrological modelling. Atmospheric models benefit from the experience of hydrological modellers in developing simpler,
yet more effective land surface parameterisations. This basic modelling tool for simulating the large-scale water balance
of the Baltic Sea drainage basin is the only existing hydrological model that covers the entire basin and will continue to
be used until more detailed models can be successfully applied at this scale.
Received November 24, 2000 Revised April 4, 2001 相似文献