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以辽宁1991～2000年的异常气象年表为依据 ,归纳出了20世纪90年代气候极值的统计特征。 相似文献
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地面测报工作是气象工作的基础，它可为天气预报、气象信息、气候分析、科学研究和气象服务提供重要的依据。测报质量的好坏，直接影响服务效果。全面提高测报质量是气象工作的百年大计。 相似文献
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利用NCEP/NCAR再分析逐日资料和其他常规观测资料,对2016年湖北省梅雨期一次罕见极端强降水过程气象因子的异常特征进行分析。结果表明：异常的高低纬度环流形势配合,为此次极端降水过程的发生提供了有利的环流背景。500 hPa副热带高压较气候平均值显著偏强,有利于副热带高压西侧水汽输送加强,使得低层南风距平较气候平均值异常偏强;850 hPa 低涡强烈发展配合200 hPa分流区的形成,导致垂直方向上动力抬升也表现出一定的异常性;此外对该过程中极端降水站点上空的气象因子分析发现,水汽因子（PW）、不稳定因子（K指数）和动力因子（850 hPa散度）绝对值均比气候平均值偏高了1.5个σ以上,并且超过历史相关统计值的上四分位值。最后给出了此次过极端强降水过程的天气概念模型及气象因子异常度的定量配置图。 相似文献
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基于中尺度站资料的气候监测业务系统是由数据库管理系统、实时气候监测评价系统、气象灾害分析评价系统、气候分析评价系统所构成,具有数据处理、灾害监测、诊断分析、图形制作、分析产品自动生成等功能,该系统运用了全省密布的中尺度站资料,通过地理信息系统模式进行开发,其工作流程符合省级气候业务和决策服务的需要,在实际业务中对气象灾害和异常气候事件等进行监测,监测时空精度及实时性均有较大的提高。 相似文献
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选用1980-2004年呼伦贝尔市草原蝗虫数据资料和气象资料，通过对草原蝗虫的发生和气候因素关系的分析得出：气象环境条件是影响呼伦贝尔市草原蝗虫发生的主要因素，且温度和降水是影响蝗虫发生消长的敏感气象因子。利用蝗虫发生面积资料和气象因子的相关关系建立蝗虫虫害发生程度的短、中、长期预测预报方法，实现对草原蝗虫动态预测，为防治决策提供气象依据。 相似文献
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极地海冰变化对气候的影响 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4
本文为“极地海冰变化对气候的影响”专题研究工作的简单小结。本工作从资料分析特别是从数值试验研究了极地海冰广度异常的气候效应，着重揭示了极地海冰异常对大气环流和气候的影响是全球性的，它可激发出全球大气异常遥相关型波形，表现出具有与赤道太平洋海温异常同样生命的作用；讨论了极地海冰异常对大气环流影响的机制以及极地海冰变化特征和物理过程。 相似文献
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USE OF A STOCHASTIC WEATHER GENERATOR IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
Climate change scenarios with a high spatial and temporal resolution are required in the evaluation of the effects of climate change on agricultural potential and agricultural risk. Such scenarios should reproduce changes in mean weather characteristics as well as incorporate the changes in climate variability indicated by the global climate model (GCM) used. Recent work on the sensitivity of crop models and climatic extremes has clearly demonstrated that changes in variability can have more profound effects on crop yield and on the probability of extreme weather events than simple changes in the mean values. The construction of climate change scenarios based on spatial regression downscaling and on the use of a local stochastic weather generator is described. Regression downscaling translated the coarse resolution GCM grid-box predictions of climate change to site-specific values. These values were then used to perturb the parameters of the stochastic weather generator in order to simulate site-specific daily weather data. This approach permits the incorporation of changes in the mean and variability of climate in a consistent and computationally inexpensive way. The stochastic weather generator used in this study, LARS-WG, has been validated across Europe and has been shown to perform well in the simulation of different weather statistics, including those climatic extremes relevant to agriculture. The importance of downscaling and the incorporation of climate variability are demonstrated at two European sites where climate change scenarios were constructed using the UK Met. Office high resolution GCM equilibrium and transient experiments. 相似文献
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A changing climate and more frequent extreme weather events pose challenges to the oil and gas sector. Identifying how these changes will affect oil and gas extraction, transportation, processing, and delivery, and how these industries can adapt to or mitigate any adverse impacts will be vital to this sector’s supply security. This work presents an overview of the sector’s vulnerability to a changing climate. It addresses the potential for Natech hazards and proposes risk reduction measures, including mitigation and adaptation options. Assessment frameworks to ensure the safety of people, the environment, and investments in the oil and gas sector in the face of climate change are presented and their limitations discussed. It is argued that a comprehensive and systemic analysis framework for risk assessment is needed. The paper concludes that climate change and extreme weather events represent a real physical threat to the oil and gas sector, particularly in low-lying coastal areas and areas exposed to extreme weather events. The sector needs to take climate change seriously, assess its own vulnerability, and take appropriate measures to prevent or mitigate any potentially negative effects. 相似文献
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在传统的气象资料质量控制技术中,通常利用统计方法设置控制界限,对于界限以外的资料作为可疑值被标注或作为错误值而被剔除。文中以中国1971~2000年700多基准基本站中,气温极端事件———青海托托河站1985年10月~1986年3月的极端异常月平均气温为例,介绍了极端异常气象资料的综合性质量控制方法。通过综合性质量控制与分析,即参考Metadata、邻近站检验、不同观测项目间的一致性检查,均证明托托河站1985年10月~1986年3月极端异常月平均气温资料是正确的。从而说明,利用界限控制检查出的所谓错误资料,虽然在统计学意义上很难出现,但是它有可能反映了异常极端的天气气候事件,是正确的。因此,对于极端异常的气象资料,应进一步通过综合性质量控制,分析该资料正确与否,从而保留极端天气气候事件的事实。文中最后介绍了中国1971~2000年700多基准基本站极端异常月平均气温资料的综合性质量检查结果。 相似文献
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EVALUATION OF TEMPERATURE RECORDS OBTAINED BY AWS IN HAINAN PROVINCE AND ADJUSTMENT OF CLIMATOLOGICAL TIME SERIES 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Based on the parallel air temperature data of automatic sounding and manual observations at 16
weather stations in Hainan province from 2004 to 2005, a comparative analysis and evaluation is made for
validity according to relevant standards. The results indicate that there are daily and seasonal differences
between temperature observations recorded by automatic weather stations (AWSs) and with conventional
methods. The reasons for the differences are the systematic error, the sensitivity of the two types of
instruments to the environmental temperature change, the difference of the observation time and the effect
of solar radiation. Because the long-range data were obtained from manual observation, an empirical
conversion formula between the temperature records obtained by the instruments is provided for
continuous use of the climate data after the changes in instruments. 相似文献
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江苏省气象台现代化天气预报业务流程及管理系统简介 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
在9210工程支持下的现代化天气预报业务流程及管理系统建立了五个子系统,即天气预报信息流程、工作流程、业务工作管理、制作分发、业务监控子系统。由此改变了资料获取、天气预报的制作、会商、传递和预报产品制作及上对下指导的方式,形成预报制作无纸化、预报产品的传递自动化、产品格式的规范化。本文简要介绍了该系统的研制技术及其各项功能和特点。 相似文献